Technical Analysis – 7 February 2025

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

United States Steel Corp. (X US)

• Shares closed at a high since December 2024 with more volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 200dEMA and the 20dEMA just crossed the 50dEMA.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is cosntructive.
  
• Long – Entry 39.0 Target 43.0 Stop 37.0
  

Vale S.A. (VALE US)

• Shares closed at a high since December 2024. 5dEMA just crossed the 50dEMA.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 9.50 Target 10.50 Stop 9.00
  

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DFI Retail Group Ltd. (DFI SP)

• Shares closed at a high since December 2024. 5dEMA recently crossed the 20dEMA and 50dEMA, 20dEMA is about to cross the 50dEMA.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 2.35, Target 2.55, Stop 2.25
  

Yangzijiang Financial Holdings Ltd. (YZJFH SP)

• Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with more volume.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
  
• Long – Entry 0.470 Target 0.510, Stop 0.450
  

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Yidu Tech Inc (2158 HK)

• Shares closed at a one-month high above the 5dEMA.
  
• Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 5.52, Target 6.00, Stop 5.28
  

AAC Technologies Holdings Inc (2018 HK)

• Shares closed at a 52-week high above the 5wEMA with a jump in volume.
  
• MACD is constructive, while RSI is at an overbought level.
  
• Long – Entry 45 Target 49, Stop 43
  

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Eli Lilly and Co (LLY)

• 4Q24 Revenue: $13.53B, +44.7% YoY, miss estimates by $40M
  
• 4Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $5.32, beat estimates by $0.24
  
• FY25 Guidance: Expects revenue to be in the range of $58.0bn to $61.0bn, midpoint of $59.5bn above consensus of $58.91bn; expects adjusted EPS to be in the range of $22.05 to $24.00 , midpoint of $23.25 above consensus of $22.69.
  
• Comment: Eli Lilly delivered mixed results, with sales falling slightly short as Mounjaro faced lower realized prices. Zepbound and Mounjaro have now underperformed expectations for two consecutive quarters, with the company attributing this to inventory reductions among wholesalers. Despite the shortfall, Lilly reassured investors that demand for its diabetes and weight-loss treatments remains robust, with strong prescription growth for Zepbound and Mounjaro among millions of patients. The company expects continued momentum in prescription growth for incretin-based drugs in 2025 and provided an optimistic full-year outlook. Looking ahead, Lilly announced plans to report late-stage data on its next-generation obesity drug, retatrutide, later this year—several months earlier than anticipated—potentially strengthening its position in the fast-growing weight-loss market.1Q25 recommended trading range: $820 to $970. Positive Outlook.
  

礼来公司(LLY)

• 24财年第四季营收：135.3亿美元，同比增长44.7%，低于预期4000万美元
  
• 24财年第四季调整后GAAP每股盈利：5.32美元，超出预期0.24美元
  
• 25财年指引：预计营收在580亿至610亿美元之间，中值595亿美元高于市场预期的589.1亿美元；预计调整后每股盈利在22.05美元至24.00美元之间，中值23.25美元高于市场预期的22.69美元。
  
• 短评：礼来公司24财年第四季度业绩喜忧参半，由于Mounjaro的实际价格较低，销售额略低于预期。Zepbound和Mounjaro已连续两个季度未达到预期，该公司将其归因于批发商的库存减少。尽管出现缺口，但礼来公司向投资者保证，其糖尿病和减肥治疗药物的需求依然强劲，数百万患者对Zepbound和Mounjaro的处方增长强劲。该公司预计2025年基于肠促胰岛素的药物处方增长势头将持续，并提供了乐观的全年展望。展望未来，礼来公司宣布计划在今年晚些时候公布其下一代肥胖症药物retatrutide的后期阶段数据——比预期提前几个月——这可能会加强其在快速增长的减肥市场中的地位。25财年第一季建议交易区间：820美元至970美元。积极前景。
  

Roblox Corp (RBLX)

• 4Q24 Revenue: $1.36B, +20.4% YoY, miss estimates by $10M
  
• 4Q24 GAAP EPS: -$0.33, beat estimates by $0.12
  
• 1Q25 Guidance: Expects bookings to be between $1.13bn to $1.15bn, midpoint of $1.14bn above estimates of $1.1bn; expected adjusted EBITDA to be between $20mn to $40mn; expects revenue to be between $0.99bn to $1.02bn, midpoint of $1.0bn above consensus of $981.3mn.
  
• FY25 Guidance: Expects bookings to be between $5.20bn to $5.30bn, midpoint of $5.25bn below consensus of $5.27bn; expects adjusted EBITDA to be between $190mn to $265mn; expects revenue to be between $4.25bn to $4.35bn.
  
• Comment: Roblox reported mixed results and guided for annual bookings below estimates, raising concerns that its rapid growth may be slowing. The outlook also added to broader industry worries following Electronic Arts’ lackluster forecast, indicating potential headwinds in 2025. However, despite the softer guidance, Roblox still expects a third consecutive year of approximately 20% bookings growth, significantly outpacing the broader gaming market, where high inflation has dampened consumer spending. The company remains optimistic about its long-term prospects, reiterating its goal of hosting 10% of all gaming content worldwide—underscoring the substantial runway for future expansion. 2Q25 recommended trading range: $57 to $77. Neutral Outlook.
  

Roblox (RBLX)

• 24财年第四季营收： 13.6亿美元，同比增长20.4%，低于预期1000万美元
  
• 24财年第四季GAAP每股收益： -0.33美元，高于预期0.12美元
  
• 25财年第一季指引： 预计总订单额在11.3亿至11.5亿美元之间，中值11.4亿美元高于市场预期的11亿美元；预计调整后EBITDA在2000万至4000万美元之间；预计营收在9.9亿至10.2亿美元之间，中值10亿美元高于市场预期的9.813亿美元。
  
• 25财年全年指引： 预计总订单额在52亿至53亿美元之间，中值52.5亿美元低于市场预期的52.7亿美元；预计调整后EBITDA在1.9亿至2.65亿美元之间；预计营收在42.5亿至43.5亿美元之间。
  
• 短评： Roblox公布了喜忧参半的业绩，并预计全年订单额低于预期，这引发了人们对其快速增长可能正在放缓的担忧。此前，Electronic Arts发布了令人失望的业绩预期，加上Roblox的展望，都预示着2025年可能面临行业逆风。然而，尽管指引疲软，Roblox仍预计连续第三年实现约20%的订单额增长，显著超过更广泛的游戏市场，后者因高通胀而导致消费者支出受到抑制。该公司对长期前景保持乐观，重申其目标是托管全球10%的游戏内容——凸显出未来扩张的巨大空间。25财年第二季建议交易区间：57美元至77美元。中性前景。
  

Amazon.com Inc (AMZN)

• 4Q24 Revenue: $187.79B, +10.5% YoY, beat estimates by $560M
  
• 4Q24 GAAP EPS: $1.86, beat estimates by $0.38
  
• 1Q25 Guidance: Expects revenue to be between $151.0bn to $155.5bn, below consensus of $158.33bn
  
• Comment: Amazon delivered strong results but saw weaker-than-expected growth in its cloud computing unit and issued a soft Q1 2025 revenue forecast. Amazon Web Services (AWS) revenue rose 19% YoY to $28.79 billion, slightly below estimates of $28.87 billion. The cloud industry as a whole faced headwinds, with Microsoft and Google also reporting weaker Q4 performance. Amazon guided for $105 billion in capital expenditures for 2025, a 27% increase from 2024, largely driven by investments in AI data center expansion. This follows a 57% YoY increase in 2024, highlighting the company’s aggressive push into AI infrastructure. Looking ahead, AI-driven demand is expected to fuel cloud growth, but investors are likely to closely monitor rising costs, especially amid reports that Chinese startup DeepSeek has developed an AI model similar to ChatGPT at a fraction of the cost incurred by U.S. tech firms. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $210 to $250. Neutral Outlook.
  

亚马逊 (AMZN)

• 24财年第四季营收：1877.9亿美元，同比增长10.5%，超出预期5.6亿美元
  
• 24财年第四季GAAP每股盈利：1.86美元，超出预期0.38美元
  
• 25财年第一季指引：预计营收在1510亿至1555亿美元之间，低于市场预期的1583.3亿美元
  
• 短评：亚马逊业绩表现强劲，但云计算部门的增长低于预期，并发布了疲软的25财年第一季度营收预期。亚马逊云科技（AWS）营收同比增长19%至287.9亿美元，略低于预期的288.7亿美元。整个云计算行业面临逆风，微软和谷歌也报告了第四季度业绩疲软。亚马逊预计2025年的资本支出为1050亿美元，比2024年增长27%，这主要是由于对人工智能数据中心扩张的投资。此前，2024年的资本支出同比增长了57%，凸显了该公司积极进军人工智能基础设施的决心。展望未来，预计人工智能驱动的需求将推动云计算增长，但投资者可能会密切关注不断上涨的成本，尤其是有报道称中国初创企业DeepSeek以低于美国科技公司成本的成本开发了类似ChatGPT的人工智能模型。25财年第一季建议交易区间：210美元至250美元。中性前景。
  

Fortinet Inc (FTNT)

• 4Q24 Revenue: $1.66B, +16.9% YoY, beat estimates by $60M
  
• 4Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.74, beat estimates by $0.13
  
• 1Q25 Guidance: Expects revenue between $1.50B and $1.56B, the midpoint of which is in line with estimates of $1.53B.
  
• FY25 Guidance: Expect revenue in the range of $6.65B to $6.85B, while analysts expect $6.63B
  
• Comment: In 4Q24, Fortinet reported revenue of US$1.66bn, beating estimates of US$1.59bn, driven by strong demand for AI-powered cybersecurity solutions amid rising digital threats and high-profile security incidents. For 1Q25, the company expects revenue between US$1.50bn to US$1.56bn, aligning with the US$1.53bn consensus. Fortinet projected full-year 2025 revenue of US$6.65bn to US$6.85bn, surpassing Wall Street’s US$6.63bn estimate, reflecting continued growth momentum. With enterprises increasingly prioritizing cybersecurity investments, Fortinet is well-positioned to capitalize on the upcoming firewall refresh cycle, strengthen its market presence, and drive long-term revenue growth. The company’s expanding AI-driven security portfolio and its ability to address evolving cyber risks should further enhance its competitive edge and sustain strong financial performance this year. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $110 to $125. Positive Outlook.
  

Fortinet Inc (FTNT)

• 24财年第四季营收：16.6 亿美元，同比增长 16.9%，超出预期 6000 万美元
  
• 24财年第四季GAAP每股盈利：0.74 美元，超出预期 0.13 美元
  
• 25财年第一季指引：预计收入在 15.0 亿美元至 15.6 亿美元之间，中位数与市场预期的 15.3 亿美元一致。
  
• 25财年全年指引：预计全年收入在 66.5 亿美元至 68.5 亿美元之间，高于市场普遍预期的 66.3 亿美元 。
  
• 短评： Fortinet 在 4Q24 报告了 16.6 亿美元的收入，超出市场预期的 15.9 亿美元，主要受 AI 驱动的网络安全解决方案需求增长推动，背景是全球数字威胁加剧和高影响力的安全事件增多。展望 1Q25，公司预计收入将在 15.0 亿美元至 15.6 亿美元之间，与市场预期 15.3 亿美元基本一致。对于 2025 财年，Fortinet 预计全年收入在 66.5 亿美元至 68.5 亿美元之间，超出华尔街预期的 66.3 亿美元，反映出公司持续的增长动能。随着企业对网络安全投资的优先级不断提升，Fortinet 处于有利位置，将受益于即将到来的防火墙更新换代周期，进一步巩固市场地位，并推动长期收入增长。公司不断扩展的 AI 驱动安全产品组合，以及应对不断变化的网络安全威胁的能力，将进一步增强其竞争优势，支持 2025 年强劲的财务表现。25财年第一季建议交易区间：110美元至125美元。积极前景。
  

Cloudflare Inc (NET)

• 4Q24 Revenue: $459.9M, +26.9% YoY, beat estimates by $7.78M
  
• 4Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.19, beat estimates by $0.01
  
• 1Q25 Guidance: Expects revenue between $468M and $469M, slightly below the analyst consensus of $474.1M. The company projects adjusted EPS of $0.16, compared to the $0.18 estimate.
  
• FY25 Guidance: Expects revenue of $2.09B to $2.094B, just shy of the $2.097B consensus. However, the company’s adjusted EPS guidance of $0.79 to $0.80 surpassed analyst expectations of $0.74.
  
• Comment: Cloudflare reported strong Q4 results, with adjusted EPS of US$0.19, beating estimates of US$0.18 and revenue of US$459.9mn, up 27% YoY, exceeding the US$452.04mn consensus. The number of customers spending over US$1mn annually grew 47% YoY to 173, with more than half of the 55 new additions coming in Q4. Free cash flow reached US$47.8mn, or 10% of revenue, and the company ended 2024 with US$1.86bn in cash and equivalents. For 1Q25, Cloudflare expects revenue between US$468mn and US$469mn, slightly below the US$474.1mn estimate, and adjusted EPS of US$0.16 vs. US$0.18 expected. For the FY25, the company forecasts revenue of US$2.09bn to US$2.094bn, just below the US$2.097bn consensus, but adjusted EPS of US$0.79 to US$0.80, exceeding analyst expectations of US$0.74. While revenue guidance was slightly softer, strong profitability projections and expanding enterprise adoption reinforce Cloudflare’s positive momentum. As businesses accelerate cloud migration and cybersecurity investments, Cloudflare’s strategic expansion and product innovation should drive long-term growth and market leadership. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $150 to $170. Positive Outlook.
  

Cloudflare Inc (NET)

• 24财年第四季营收： 4.599 亿美元，同比增长 26.9%，超出预期 7780 万美元
  
• 24财年第四季GAAP每股盈利： 0.19 美元，超出预期 0.01 美元
  
• 25财年第一季指引：预计收入在 4.68 亿美元至 4.69 亿美元之间，略低于分析师普遍预期的 4.741 亿美元。预计调整后每股收益为 0.16 美元，低于市场预期的 0.18 美元。
  
• 25财年指引： 预计全年收入在 20.9 亿美元至 20.94 亿美元之间，略低于市场共识的 20.97 亿美元。但调整后 EPS 预计在 0.79 美元至 0.80 美元之间，高于市场预期的 0.74 美元。
  
• 短评： Cloudflare 公布了强劲的第四季度财报，调整后每股收益为 0.19 美元，高于市场预期的 0.18 美元，收入达 4.599 亿美元，同比增长 27%，超出市场预期的 4.5204 亿美元。年度百万美元以上客户数量同比增长 47% 至 173 家，其中 55 家新客户中超过一半是在第四季度增加的。自由现金流达到 4780 万美元，占总收入的 10%，公司 2024 年底现金及等价物余额为 18.6 亿美元。展望 1Q25，Cloudflare 预计收入在 4.68 亿美元至 4.69 亿美元之间，略低于市场预期的 4.741 亿美元，调整后 EPS 预计为 0.16 美元，低于市场预期的 0.18 美元。对于 FY25，公司预计全年收入在 20.9 亿美元至 20.94 亿美元之间，略低于市场预期，但调整后 EPS 指引 0.79 美元至 0.80 美元，高于市场普遍预测的 0.74 美元。尽管收入指引略显疲软，但盈利能力的提升以及企业客户群的持续扩张支撑了 Cloudflare 的增长势头。随着企业加速云计算迁移和加大网络安全投资，Cloudflare 的战略扩张和产品创新有望推动其长期增长，并进一步巩固其市场领导地位。25财年第一季建议交易区间：150美元至170美元。积极前景。
  

Affirm Holdings Inc (AFRM)

• 2Q25 Revenue: $866.38M, +46.6% YoY, beat estimates by $58.75M
  
• 2Q25 GAAP EPS: $0.23, beat estimates by $0.40
  
• 3Q25 Guidance: Expect revenue between $755M and $785M, or $770M in the middle of the range, versus the average estimate of $772M.
  
• FY25 Guidance: The company reiterated its commitment to achieving profitability on a GAAP basis by the end of its fiscal fourth quarter in 2025.
  
• Comment: Affirm’ Holdings reported stronger-than-expected fiscal Q2 results. The company posted earnings per share of US$0.23, beating the expected loss of US$0.15, and revenue of US$866mn, surpassing estimates of US$807mn. Gross merchandise volume (GMV) hit US$10.1bn, up 35% YoY, marking the first time it exceeded US$10bn. Revenue grew 47% YoY, and revenue less transaction costs (RLTC) jumped 73% to US$419mn, with a 4.1% margin exceeding the long-term target range. Its CFO attributed the earnings boost partly to a US$60mn gain from repurchasing convertible debt but emphasized strong business fundamentals. Affirm expects Q3 revenue between US$755mn and US$785mn, reaffirming its goal of GAAP profitability by fiscal 4Q25. The company’s active consumer base rose 23% to 21 million, while its Affirm Card saw 136% growth, reaching 1.7 million users. Key partnerships with Apple, Amazon, and Shopify continue driving growth, with Affirm set to power US Apple Pay loans. The quarter also saw an increase in 0% interest loans, as merchants leveraged financing to boost sales. Affirm’s strong Q2 results, driven by robust GMV growth, improving margins, and expanding consumer adoption, signal a positive trajectory for the company. Looking ahead, Affirm is well-positioned to capitalize on the increasing adoption of buy now, pay later (BNPL) solutions, though macroeconomic factors like inflation and consumer spending trends remain key considerations. 3Q25 recommended trading range: $65 to $75. Positive Outlook.
  

Affirm Holdings Inc (AFRM)

• 25财年第二季营收：8.6638 亿美元，同比增长 46.6%，超出预期 5,875 万美元
  
• 25财年第二季GAAP每股盈利：0.23 美元，超出预期 0.40 美元
  
• 25财年第三季指引：预计收入在 7.55 亿至 7.85 亿美元 之间，中位数 7.7 亿美元，与市场预期的 7.72 亿美元 接近。
  
• 25财年全年指引：公司重申其目标，即在 2025 财年第四季度 结束前实现 GAAP 基准盈利。
  
• 短评： Affirm Holdings 公布了强于预期的 2025 财年第二季度 业绩。公司实现 每股收益 0.23 美元，远超市场预期的 亏损 0.15 美元，收入达到 8.66 亿美元，高于市场预期的 8.07 亿美元。商品交易总额（GMV） 增长 35%，首次突破 100 亿美元。公司收入同比增长 47%，收入扣除交易成本（RLTC）增长 73% 至 4.19 亿美元，RLTC 利润率达 4.1%，高于长期目标区间。首席财务官（CFO）表示，盈利部分受益于 6,000 万美元的可转换债务回购收益，但更重要的推动因素仍是 强劲的业务基本面。Affirm 预计 2025 财年第三季度 收入将在 7.55 亿至 7.85 亿美元 之间，并重申将在 2025 财年第四季度 达成 GAAP 盈利目标。公司 活跃消费者数量增长 23% 至 2,100 万，其中 Affirm Card 用户增长 136%，达到 170 万。与 Apple、Amazon 和 Shopify 的关键合作伙伴关系继续推动业务增长，公司已确认将支持 美国 Apple Pay 贷款业务。此外，由于商家利用分期免息贷款推动销售，本季度 0% 利率贷款 也有所增加。 Affirm 的强劲 GMV 增长、利润率改善 以及 消费者基数扩大 显示了 持续增长的潜力。展望未来，随着 先买后付（BNPL） 解决方案的 普及率不断提升，Affirm 有望继续受益。然而，通胀和消费支出趋势 等宏观经济因素仍是需要关注的关键变量。25财年第三季建议交易区间：65美元至75美元。积极前景。