Technical Analysis: 6 November 2026

Unity Software Inc. (U) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: Revenue US$622.092m versus US$470.615m, +32.2% YoY; US$56.60m above US$565.49m consensus. Strategic Grow revenue increased 90%; strategic Create increased 11%. Adjusted EBITDA US$256.6m, up 134%, with a 41% margin versus 23% previously. 

• 3Q26 EPS: Adjusted diluted EPS US$0.44 versus US$0.20, +120%; US$0.10 above comparable US$0.34 consensus. GAAP EPS US$0.25 versus a US$0.30 loss; stock compensation US$63.1m and amortisation US$76.7m. 

• 4Q26 Guidance: Strategic revenue US$683–691m, plus approximately US$5m non-strategic revenue; adjusted EBITDA US$290–295m, approximately 42% margin. No EPS guidance or previous comparable Q4 range provided. 

• FY26 Guidance: No standalone annual total-revenue or EPS range provided. Strategic Create growth approximately 9%; non-strategic revenue expected to cease in 2027. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: No dividend or new common-share buyback announced. Quarterly operating cash flow US$224m; free cash flow US$220m. Cash including restricted cash US$2.651bn; approximately US$557.5m convertible notes scheduled for cash repayment in November. 

• Comment: Unity’s recovery is increasingly supported by commercial execution, with Vector advertising gains generating stronger revenue and operating cash flow. However, strategic Create grows much more slowly, leaving performance sensitive to advertising demand and model effectiveness. GAAP profitability also benefits from sharply lower amortisation and reduced stock compensation, which should be separated from improvements in recurring operations. A small tax benefit and disposal gain also supported reported earnings, although operating profit itself turned positive. Cash generation supports the approaching convertible repayment, while Spark remains an unproven longer-term opportunity rather than an established revenue stream. Shares closed at US$48.80 on 5 November, up 14.93%. A Neutral outlook reflects improved fundamentals alongside a valuation increasingly dependent on sustained execution after a substantial rally. Watch Vector retention, advertiser returns, Create subscription demand, cash conversion and whether growth remains broad enough to absorb normalisation after the current advertising acceleration without renewed pressure on margins or liquidity. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$42–60. Neutral Outlook. 

Unity Software (U) 

• 2026财年第三季度营收：营收6.22092亿美元，上年同期4.70615亿美元，同比增长32.2%；较市场预期5.6549亿美元高5,660万美元。战略Grow业务营收增长90%，战略Create业务增长11%。调整后EBITDA为2.566亿美元，增长134%，利润率由23%升至41%。 

• 2026财年第三季度每股收益：调整后摊薄每股收益0.44美元，上年同期0.20美元，增长120%；较同口径市场预期0.34美元高0.10美元。GAAP每股收益0.25美元，上年同期亏损0.30美元；股权薪酬6,310万美元，摊销7,670万美元。 

• 2026财年第四季度指引：战略业务营收6.83亿–6.91亿美元，另有约500万美元非战略业务营收；调整后EBITDA为2.90亿–2.95亿美元，利润率约42%。未提供每股收益指引或此前可比的第四季度区间。 

• 2026财年指引：未提供独立的全年总营收或每股收益区间。战略Create业务预计增长约9%；非战略业务营收预计于2027年归零。 

• 股息与回购：未宣布派息或新的普通股回购。经营现金流2.24亿美元，自由现金流2.20亿美元。包含受限现金的现金余额26.51亿美元；约5.575亿美元可转换票据计划于11月以现金偿还。 

• 短评：Unity的复苏越来越受到实际经营执行支持，Vector广告业务增长推动营收及经营现金流改善。不过，战略Create业务增长明显较慢，整体表现仍较依赖广告需求及模型效果。GAAP盈利亦受惠于摊销大幅下降和股权薪酬减少，应与持续经营改善分别看待。小额所得税收益及资产出售收益亦支持报告盈利，不过营业利润本身也已转正。现金创造能力支持即将到期的可转换票据偿付，Spark则仍属于未经验证的长期机会，尚非成熟收入来源。股价11月5日收盘报48.80美元，上涨14.93%。中性展望反映基本面改善，同时大涨后估值越来越依赖持续执行。关注Vector客户留存、广告主回报、Create订阅需求、现金转化，以及本轮广告增长加速正常化后，业务增长是否足够广泛，能够避免利润率或流动性再度承压。 2026年第四季度建议交易区间：42–60美元。中性展望。 

Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) 

• 1Q27 Revenue: Revenue US$1.2626bn versus US$533.8m, +136.5% YoY; approximately US$12.6m above US$1.25bn consensus. Revenue increased 25.5% sequentially. Non-GAAP operating margin reached 42.3%, versus 18.7% a year earlier. 

• 1Q27 EPS: Non-GAAP EPS US$4.57 versus US$1.10, +315.5%; beat US$4.22 consensus by US$0.35. GAAP diluted EPS US$3.54 versus US$0.05; earnings included a US$37m discrete tax benefit. 

• 2Q27 Guidance: Revenue US$1.575–1.625bn; non-GAAP EPS US$5.90–6.20; non-GAAP operating margin 45–46%. These are new quarterly targets; no previous guidance for this quarter was provided. 

• FY27 Guidance: No full-year revenue or EPS guidance provided. A second major near-packaged/co-packaged optics customer win carries over US$5bn of purchase commitments, rather than recognised revenue. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: No dividend or new buyback announced. Operating cash flow US$267.7m; capital expenditure US$229.8m. Cash and short-term investments US$1.9796bn. Convertible-note conversions consumed US$493.3m. 

• Comment: Lumentum’s optical connectivity expansion supports a strong operating outlook, but the proposed Marvell combination makes the shares a more complex investment. Results were released on 2 November, ahead of the previously scheduled earnings date. Pump lasers, optical circuit switches and expanding AI connectivity demand support growth, while higher utilisation and product mix improve margins. Purchase commitments improve visibility but still require production and customer deployment. Adjusted earnings exclude substantial share compensation and related payroll taxes; GAAP earnings also benefited from a discrete tax credit. Cash conversion remains constrained by inventory, receivables and heavy capacity investment. Marvell agreed to exchange 4.500 shares for each Lumentum share, with closing expected in the first half of 2028. This fixed share ratio exposes consideration to Marvell’s share price, alongside approval and execution risk. Shares closed at US$509.70 on 5 November, down 18.68%. Valuation therefore depends on both standalone delivery and the acquirer’s prospects. Watch capacity ramps, commitment conversion and transaction approvals. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$460–650. Neutral Outlook. 

Lumentum (LITE) 

• 2027财年第一季度营收：收入12.626亿美元，去年5.338亿美元，同比增长136.5%；较12.5亿美元预期高约1,260万美元。收入环比增长25.5%。非GAAP营业利润率达42.3%，去年同期为18.7%。 

• 2027财年第一季度每股收益：非GAAP每股盈利4.57美元，去年1.10美元，增长315.5%；较4.22美元预期高0.35美元。GAAP摊薄每股盈利3.54美元，去年0.05美元；盈利包含3,700万美元一次性税项优惠。 

• 2027财年第二季度指引：收入15.75–16.25亿美元；非GAAP每股盈利5.90–6.20美元；非GAAP营业利润率45–46%。上述为新的季度目标，此前未提供该季度指引。 

• 2027财年指引：未提供全年收入或每股盈利指引。第二项主要近封装／共封装光学客户订单包含逾50亿美元采购承诺，并非已确认收入。 

• 股息与回购：未宣布股息或新增回购。经营现金流2.677亿美元；资本开支2.298亿美元。现金及短期投资19.796亿美元。可转债转换支付4.933亿美元。 

• 短评：光连接业务扩张支持Lumentum强劲的经营前景，但拟与Marvell合并令投资判断更复杂。业绩于11月2日发布，早于原定公布日期。泵浦激光器、光电路交换机及扩大的AI连接需求支持增长，而产能利用率和产品组合提升利润率。采购承诺增加可见度，但仍须完成生产与客户部署。经调整盈利剔除了大额股份薪酬及相关工资税；GAAP盈利亦受惠于一次性税项优惠。存货、应收账款及大规模扩产投资仍限制现金转化。Marvell同意每股Lumentum换取4.500股Marvell，预计2028年上半年完成。固定换股比例使交易对价受Marvell股价影响，亦涉及审批及执行风险。股价于11月5日收报509.70美元，下跌18.68%。因此，估值同时取决于独立经营执行及收购方前景。关注产能爬坡、采购承诺转化及交易审批。 2026年第四季度建议交易区间：460–650美元。中性展望。 

Cloudflare, Inc. (NET) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: Revenue US$782.5m versus US$562.0m, +39.2% YoY; beat US$739.74m consensus by approximately US$42.76m. Current remaining performance obligations grew 37%; dollar-based net retention increased to 122% from 119%. 

• 3Q26 EPS: Non-GAAP diluted EPS US$0.38 versus US$0.27, +40.7%; beat US$0.34 consensus by US$0.04. GAAP loss per share US$0.10 versus approximately zero. Adjustments exclude stock compensation, restructuring and other costs. Adjusted operating margin 17.5% versus 15.3%. 

• 4Q26 Guidance: Revenue US$845–846m; non-GAAP operating income US$156–157m; non-GAAP diluted EPS US$0.43. Management also expects GAAP profitability, without a GAAP EPS range. 

• FY26 Guidance: Revenue raised to US$2.963–2.964bn from US$2.864–2.870bn; non-GAAP EPS to US$1.35 from US$1.25–1.26. Non-GAAP operating income raised to US$462–463m from US$443–445m. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: No dividend or buyback announced. Operating cash flow US$215.4m; free cash flow US$82.1m versus US$75.0m. Cash and securities US$5.129bn; Q3 convertible issuance US$2.5bn, repayments US$1.3bn. Free-cash-flow margin 10% versus 13%. 

• Comment: Cloudflare’s accelerating demand and customer expansion strengthen its operating prospects, but valuation keeps our outlook neutral. Security, networking and developer products are benefiting from growing enterprise adoption and AI workloads. Higher retention and contracted revenue support visibility, while sales productivity and cost discipline lifted adjusted operating margins. The improvement is uneven: gross margin declined as developer-platform usage expanded, and GAAP losses widened despite the adjusted earnings beat. Stock compensation and restructuring exclusions remain material when assessing shareholder economics. Operating cash flow increased, but heavier network investment reduced the free-cash-flow margin; new convertible borrowing also contributed to the larger liquidity balance. Shares traded at US$280.51 post-market on 5 November, up 14.72% from the close. The rebound recognises stronger execution, yet valuation still demands sustained rapid growth. Watch enterprise deal conversion, developer monetisation, infrastructure utilisation, dilution and the expected fourth-quarter GAAP profit. Growth accompanied by stronger cash conversion would support confidence; revenue expansion without adequate infrastructure returns would challenge the premium. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$240–310. Neutral Outlook. 

Cloudflare (NET) 

• 2026财年第三季度营收：收入7.825亿美元，去年5.620亿美元，同比增长39.2%；较7.3974亿美元预期高约4,276万美元。当前剩余履约义务增长37%；美元净留存率由119%升至122%。 

• 2026财年第三季度每股收益：非GAAP摊薄每股盈利0.38美元，去年0.27美元，增长40.7%；较0.34美元预期高0.04美元。GAAP每股亏损0.10美元，去年约零。调整剔除股权薪酬、重组及其他成本。 经调整经营利润率17.5%，去年15.3%。 

• 2026财年第四季度指引：收入8.45–8.46亿美元；非GAAP经营利润1.56–1.57亿美元；非GAAP摊薄每股盈利0.43美元。管理层亦预计实现GAAP盈利，但未提供GAAP每股盈利区间。 

• 2026财年指引：收入由28.64–28.70亿美元升至29.63–29.64亿美元；非GAAP每股盈利由1.25–1.26美元升至1.35美元。非GAAP经营利润由4.43–4.45亿美元升至4.62–4.63亿美元。 

• 股息与回购：未宣布股息或回购。经营现金流2.154亿美元；自由现金流8,210万美元，去年7,500万美元。现金及证券51.29亿美元；第三季度发行可转债25亿美元，偿还13亿美元。 自由现金流率10%，去年13%。 

• 短评：Cloudflare需求加速及客户扩张增强经营前景，但估值使我们维持中性。企业采用及AI工作负载增长，使安全、网络及开发者产品受益。留存率及合约收入提升支持能见度，销售效率及成本纪律则提高经调整经营利润率。不过，改善并不均衡：开发者平台使用增加令毛利率下降，即使经调整盈利超预期，GAAP亏损仍扩大。评估股东经济回报时，股权薪酬及重组剔除仍属重大因素。经营现金流增加，但网络投资提高降低自由现金流率；新增可转债融资亦扩大流动性余额。股价于11月5日盘后报280.51美元，较收盘上涨14.72%。反弹反映执行增强，但估值仍要求持续快速增长。关注企业交易转化、开发者变现、基础设施利用率、摊薄及第四季度GAAP盈利预期。增长伴随更强现金转化会增强信心；若收入扩张而基础设施回报不足，则会挑战溢价。 2026年第四季度建议交易区间：240–310美元。中性展望。 

Atlassian Corporation (TEAM) 

• 1QFY27 Revenue: Revenue US$1.77215bn versus US$1.43255bn, +23.7% YoY; approximately US$62m above approximately US$1.71bn consensus. Cloud revenue US$1.302bn, +31%; remaining performance obligations increased 44%. 

• 1QFY27 EPS: Non-GAAP diluted EPS US$1.65 versus US$1.04, +58.7%; beat US$1.43 consensus by US$0.22. GAAP EPS US$0.35 versus a US$0.20 loss; stock compensation US$356.5m. Non-GAAP operating margin increased to 32% from 23%; GAAP operating margin turned positive at 11%. 

• 2QFY27 Guidance: Revenue US$1.825–1.835bn; cloud growth approximately 27%; non-GAAP operating margin 26%. No EPS guidance or previous comparable quarterly range provided. 

• FY27 Guidance: Revenue growth raised from 13% to 13.75%; cloud growth from 25.5% to 26%; non-GAAP operating margin from 25% to 25.5%. No annual EPS guidance provided. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: No dividend announced. Quarterly share repurchases US$588.0m exceeded free cash flow US$462.6m; operating cash flow US$468.5m. Quarter-end cash US$1.121bn. Receivable collections and stock-compensation addbacks supported cash generation. 

• Comment: Atlassian delivered stronger cloud growth and raised its annual outlook, but investors focused on deceleration implied by the December quarter and subsequent comparisons. Cloud migrations remain an important contributor, making underlying seat expansion and collection adoption essential tests of durability. Rovo adoption supports product engagement, although management assumes no meaningful fiscal-year revenue from December usage-based pricing. The earnings beat is accompanied by better operating leverage, but adjusted profit excludes substantial stock compensation, which remained broadly unchanged. Cash collections improved materially; however, repurchases exceeded free cash flow, and equity compensation remains an economic cost despite its cash-flow addback. Shares traded at US$154.00 post-market on 5 November, down 15.98% from the close. A Neutral outlook recognises a more reasonable entry valuation after the sell-off while requiring clearer evidence of sustained organic cloud demand. Watch migration-adjusted growth, enterprise renewals, Collections uptake, AI monetisation and cash conversion as Data Center contraction and tougher comparisons increasingly shape reported growth. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$140–185. Neutral Outlook. 

Atlassian (TEAM) 

• 2027财年第一季度营收：营收17.7215亿美元，上年同期14.3255亿美元，同比增长23.7%；较约17.1亿美元市场预期高约6,200万美元。云业务营收13.02亿美元，增长31%；剩余履约义务增长44%。 

• 2027财年第一季度每股收益：非GAAP摊薄每股收益1.65美元，上年同期1.04美元，增长58.7%；较市场预期1.43美元高0.22美元。GAAP每股收益0.35美元，上年同期亏损0.20美元；股权薪酬3.565亿美元。非GAAP营业利润率由23%升至32%；GAAP营业利润率转正至11%。 

• 2027财年第二季度指引：营收18.25亿–18.35亿美元；云业务增长约27%；非GAAP营业利润率26%。未提供每股收益指引或此前可比的季度区间。 

• 2027财年指引：营收增长指引由13%上调至13.75%；云业务增长由25.5%上调至26%；非GAAP营业利润率由25%上调至25.5%。未提供全年每股收益指引。 

• 股息与回购：未宣布派息。单季股份回购5.880亿美元，高于自由现金流4.626亿美元；经营现金流4.685亿美元。现金11.21亿美元。应收账款回收及股权薪酬加回支持现金创造。 

• 短评：Atlassian云业务增长较强，并上调全年展望，但投资者更关注12月季度指引及后续比较基数所反映的增长放缓。客户迁云仍是重要增长来源，因此原有客户席位扩张及Collections采用情况是检验持续性的关键。Rovo采用支持产品参与度，不过管理层并未假设12月推出的按使用量收费会在本财年带来显著营收。盈利超预期伴随经营杠杆改善，但调整后利润剔除了大量股权薪酬，而该项费用大致持平。现金回收明显改善，不过回购金额超过自由现金流；股权薪酬即使在现金流中加回，仍具经济成本。股价11月5日盘后报154.00美元，较收盘下跌15.98%。中性展望反映大跌后买入估值较合理，但仍需更多证据确认云业务有机需求可持续。随着Data Center收缩及比较基数提高日益影响报告增长，关注剔除迁云影响后的增长、企业续约、Collections采用、人工智能变现和现金转化。 2026年第四季度建议交易区间：140–185美元。中性展望。 

Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: Revenue US$4.869bn versus US$4.095bn, +18.9% YoY; approximately US$119m above US$4.75bn consensus. Gross booking value grew 21%; Nights and Seats Booked grew 16% to 155m. 

• 3Q26 EPS: GAAP diluted EPS US$3.16 versus US$2.21, +43.0%; beat US$2.85 consensus by US$0.31. Net income US$1.890bn versus US$1.374bn; tax expense fell US$135m. Adjusted EBITDA US$2.509bn, +22.3%. Stock compensation was US$462m. 

• 4Q26 Guidance: Revenue US$3.22–3.28bn, +16–18% YoY; gross-booking-value growth in the mid-teens. Adjusted EBITDA to increase, but margin slightly below Q4 2025 as marketing spending shifts. No EPS guidance provided. 

• FY26 Guidance: Revenue growth raised to high teens from at least mid-teens; adjusted EBITDA margin raised to approximately 36% from at least 35.5%. No full-year EPS guidance provided. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: No dividend. New US$12bn buyback authorisation supplements US$2.7bn remaining. Q3 repurchases US$700m; operating cash flow US$1.508bn and free cash flow US$1.426bn versus US$1.349bn previously. 

• Comment: Airbnb’s reacceleration is broadening across regions and supports a stronger operating outlook, but we retain a neutral view after the rally. Product improvements and returning guests contributed to growth, while Reserve Now, Pay Later lifted booked nights and brought some reservations forward. The business still accelerated excluding that effect. Earnings quality nevertheless warrants context: lower tax expense boosted net income, and marketing spending deferred to the fourth quarter supported current margins. Stock compensation remains an economic cost despite its exclusion from adjusted EBITDA. Cash generation is healthy, although delayed guest collection and office investment limited its growth relative to earnings. Shares traded at US$188.84 post-market on 5 November, up 11.00% from the close. Valuation now requires continued execution and sustained demand. Watch cancellations, payment collection, fee changes, new-service adoption and European travel conditions. Buybacks support per-share returns, but durable growth after payment-related timing benefits fade would provide stronger evidence for a positive reassessment. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$170–205. Neutral Outlook. 

爱彼迎 (ABNB) 

• 2026财年第三季度营收：收入48.69亿美元，去年40.95亿美元，同比增长18.9%；较47.5亿美元预期高约1.19亿美元。总预订价值增长21%；住宿晚数及体验席位预订量增长16%至1.55亿。 

• 2026财年第三季度每股收益：GAAP摊薄每股盈利3.16美元，去年2.21美元，增长43.0%；较2.85美元预期高0.31美元。净利润18.90亿美元，去年13.74亿美元；税项费用下降1.35亿美元。经调整EBITDA为25.09亿美元，增长22.3%。 股权薪酬为4.62亿美元。 

• 2026财年第四季度指引：收入32.2–32.8亿美元，同比增长16–18%；总预订价值增长百分之十中段。经调整EBITDA预计增加，但因营销开支时点改变，利润率略低于2025年第四季度。未提供每股盈利指引。 

• 2026财年指引：收入增长由至少百分之十中段升至百分之十后段；经调整EBITDA利润率由至少35.5%升至约36%。未提供全年每股盈利指引。 

• 股息与回购：不派息。新增120亿美元回购授权，另有27亿美元剩余授权。第三季度回购7亿美元；经营现金流15.08亿美元，自由现金流14.26亿美元，去年同期13.49亿美元。 

• 短评：爱彼迎增长加速扩大至各地区，支持更强经营展望，但股价上涨后我们维持中性。产品改善及回流客人推动增长，“先预订、后付款”则提高预订量并使部分预订提前；即使剔除该影响，业务仍在加速。不过，盈利质量仍需结合背景：税项费用下降推高净利润，部分营销开支移至第四季度亦支持本季利润率。股权薪酬虽然在经调整EBITDA中剔除，仍属经济成本。现金创造健康，但延迟收取旅客款项及办公室投资，使现金增长落后于盈利。股价于11月5日盘后报188.84美元，较收盘上涨11.00%。估值现要求持续执行及需求稳定。关注取消率、收款、收费调整、新服务采用及欧洲旅游情况。回购支持每股回报，但付款相关时点效益消退后仍保持持久增长，才是转为正面的更有力证据。 2026年第四季度建议交易区间：170–205美元。中性展望。 

IREN Limited (IREN) 

• 1Q27 Revenue: Revenue US$228m versus US$240m, down 5.0%; beat US$221.71m pre-results consensus by US$6.29m. AI Cloud revenue US$200m; Bitcoin mining US$28m. 

• 1Q27 EPS: GAAP diluted loss US$0.66 versus US$1.08 profit; beat US$0.76 loss consensus by US$0.10. Adjusted EBITDA US$66m. Share compensation US$106m; depreciation and amortisation US$148m. 

• 2Q27 Guidance: AI Cloud revenue approximately US$250m; cash operating costs increase US$50–60m sequentially. No quarterly total-revenue or EPS guidance provided. 

• FY27 Guidance: No annual revenue or EPS guidance. Over US$4bn operating ARR target delayed from end-2026 to January 2027, possibly February. ARR is not GAAP revenue. Remaining FY27 capex US$15bn. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: No dividend or new buyback announced. Equity issuance US$498m; unrestricted cash US$3.522bn. Operating cash flow US$529m includes US$645m deferred-revenue inflow. Cash plus committed financing and prepayments US$9bn; US$6bn additional funding targeted. 

• Comment: IREN’s transition from Bitcoin mining to AI infrastructure is progressing, but funding requirements and deployment timing warrant a neutral stance. AI revenue almost tripled sequentially as installed capacity entered service, while mining contracted ahead of its planned exit. The headline loss reverses a prior-year profit inflated by financial-instrument gains; current depreciation, financing costs and share compensation also matter economically. Positive operating cash flow relies heavily on customer prepayments and does not establish self-funded expansion. Management’s fully funded statement applies to the 0.3GW programme targeting US$4bn ARR, rather than all remaining FY27 capital expenditure. Another US$6bn is targeted from financing and customer sources, subject to market conditions. The operating ARR milestone has slipped into 2027 and is an annualised capacity measure, not reported annual revenue. Shares traded at US$19.95 post-market on 5 November, up 10.65% from the close. Valuation remains sensitive to funding access, dilution and execution. Watch GPU commissioning, prepayment collections, financing commitments and the conversion of contracted capacity into recognised revenue. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$16–26. Neutral Outlook. 

IREN (IREN) 

• 2027财年第一季度营收：收入2.28亿美元，去年2.40亿美元，下降5.0%；较业绩公布前2.2171亿美元预期高629万美元。AI云收入2亿美元；比特币挖矿收入2,800万美元。 

• 2027财年第一季度每股收益：GAAP摊薄每股亏损0.66美元，去年每股盈利1.08美元；较每股亏损0.76美元预期少亏0.10美元。经调整EBITDA为6,600万美元。股份薪酬1.06亿美元；折旧摊销1.48亿美元。 

• 2027财年第二季度指引：AI云收入约2.5亿美元；现金经营成本环比增加5,000万–6,000万美元。未提供季度总收入或每股盈利指引。 

• 2027财年指引：未提供全年收入或每股盈利指引。逾40亿美元运营年化收入运行率目标由2026年底延至2027年1月，可能进一步延至2月。ARR并非GAAP收入。FY27剩余资本开支150亿美元。 

• 股息与回购：未宣布股息或新增回购。发行股份筹集4.98亿美元；非受限现金35.22亿美元。经营现金流5.29亿美元包含6.45亿美元递延收入现金流入。现金及已承诺融资／预付款合计90亿美元；另以筹集60亿美元为目标。 

• 短评：IREN由比特币挖矿转向AI基础设施持续推进，但资金需求及部署时间使我们维持中性。已安装产能投产推动AI收入环比接近三倍，而挖矿业务在计划退出前收缩。本期亏损与去年受金融工具收益推高的盈利形成反转；本期折旧、融资成本及股份薪酬同样具有经济影响。正经营现金流高度依赖客户预付款，并不代表扩张可自行供资。管理层所谓资金全部落实，是指以40亿美元ARR为目标的0.3吉瓦项目，并非FY27全部剩余资本开支。另外60亿美元拟由融资及客户资金筹集，取决于市场条件。运营ARR里程碑已延至2027年，且属于产能对应的年化指标，并非已确认全年收入。股价于11月5日盘后报19.95美元，较收盘上涨10.65%。估值仍对融资渠道、摊薄及执行敏感。关注GPU投产、预付款收取、融资承诺及已签约产能转化为确认收入。 2026年第四季度建议交易区间：16–26美元。中性展望。