Technical Analysis – 6 November 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Zoom Video Communications, Inc. (ZOOM US)

• Shares closed at a 52-week high.
• MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
• Long – Entry 77.0 Target 87.0, Stop 72.0

Docusign, Inc. (DOCU US)

• Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA.
• MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
• Long – Entry 71.50 Target 76.50, Stop 69.0

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Propnex Ltd. (PROP SP)

• Shares closed at a high since August 2024 with a surge in volume. 20dEMA just crossed the 200dEMA.
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
• Long – Entry 0.820, Target 0.880, Stop 0.790

City Development Ltd. (CDL SP)

• Shares closed higher above the 50dEMA. 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA.
• MACD just turned positive, RSI is constructive.
• Long – Entry 5.28 Target 5.58, Stop 5.13

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Sunny Optical Technology Group Co Ltd (2382 HK)

• Shares closed at a three-week high above the 200dEMA with a jump in volume. The 5dEMA crossed the 200dEMA.
• RSI is constructive and MACD turned positive.
• Long – Entry 53.0, Target 57.4, Stop 50.8

Kingdee International Software Group Co Ltd (268 HK)

• Shares closed above the 20dEMA with an increase in volume.
• RSI is constructive, while MACD is about to turn positive.
• Long – Entry 8.20, Target 8.92, Stop 7.84

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Apollo Global Management Inc (APO)

• 3Q24 Revenue: $926M, +11.03% YoY, beat estimates by $26.11M
• 3Q24 adjusted EPS: $1.85, beat estimates by $0.13
• Dividend: Management declared $0.4625/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
• 4Q24 Guidance: No guidance provided.
• Comment: Apollo Global Management reported a strong third quarter, with a 12% increase in profit to US$1.13bn, or US$1.85 per share, exceeding Wall Street expectations. The company achieved record fee-related earnings of US$531mn in asset management and financing, while total assets under management rose to US$733bn, up 16% YoY. It also delivered US$856mn in income from its retirement business, a slight decrease YoY. Apollo’s origination volume hit US$62bn, primarily in debt, and it maintained a US$64bn reserve of unspent capital. Key investments included a €1bn deal with Germany’s Vonovia and the acquisition of aerospace firm Barnes Group for US$3.6 billion. Its CEO outlined plans to double the firm’s size in five years, focusing on financing for infrastructure, clean energy, and data technology. As the US Federal Reserve continues to ease rates, Apollo is expected to continue to benefit from increased demand for its products. 4Q24 recommended trading range: $140 to $160. Positive Outlook.

万豪国际 (MAR)

• 24财年第三季营收：62.6亿美元，同比增幅5.6%，符合预期
• 24财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.18美元，逊预期0.29美元
• 24财年第四季指引：预计全球每间客房收益增长将在2%至3%之间。总费用收入1,290美元至1,310美元，调整后每股收益2.31美元至2.39美元。
• 24财年指引：预计全球平均每间客房收益增长率将在3%至4%之间，客房净增长率约为6.5%。总费用收入为5,126美元至5,146美元，调整后每股收益下调至9.19美元至9.27美元，而市场预期为9.36美元，此前预计为9.23美元至9.40美元。全年调整后的EBITDA预计在49.3亿美元至49.6亿美元之间。
• 短评：万豪国际第三季度收入与预期相符，但利润低于预期，这促使该公司下调了年度利润预期。第三季度，该公司净客房数量增长了6%，全球客房收入增长了3%，其中集团每间客房收入增长了10%。该公司还扩大了其产品组合，推出了中型酒店“万豪城市快车”，其Bonvoy忠诚计划的会员数量达到创纪录的2.19亿人。其总费用收入和调整后的EBITDA分别增长了7%和8%，尽管在中国的表现较弱，每间可分配收益下降了8%。下调年度预测的部分原因是中国国内旅游疲软，受政府经济措施、恶劣天气和富裕中国游客国际旅游增加的影响，中国国内旅游需求和每间可分配客房收益增长一直在下降。在强劲的集团需求的支撑下，全球集团的每间可用房收益预计将在2024年增长8%。尽管全球休闲客房需求持平，低端酒店支出减少，但万豪预计第四季度全球每间客房收益将增长2%至3%，并预计其净客房数量将在24财年增长6.5%。万豪正在为2025年推出节约成本的举措和重组努力，这可能会提高加盟商的效率，并正在考虑在25财年出售资产。虽然奢侈品消费保持稳定，但低端酒店市场的挑战可能会持续到本季度。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：240至270美元。中性前景。

Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI)

• Preliminary 1Q25 Revenue: $6B – $7B, compared to estimates of $6.79B
• Preliminary 1Q25 non-GAAP EPS: $0.75 – $0.76, compared to estimates of $0.74
• 2Q25 Guidance: Expect revenue to be between $5.5B to $6.1B vs consensus of $6.79B and non-GAAP EPS to be between $0.56 to $0.65 per share compared to consensus of $0.80.
• Comment: Super Micro Computer warned of delays in filing its annual report after its auditor, Ernst & Young (EY), unexpectedly resigned last week. While an internal probe into accounting practices found no evidence of fraud, the company’s governance and reporting transparency were questioned by EY. The company reported preliminary first-quarter revenue between US$6bn and US$7bn, with the midpoint below analyst estimates of US$6.79bn, while non-GAAP EPS of US$0.75 to US$0.76 slightly exceeded expectations of US$0.74. However, a weaker-than-expected second-quarter forecast of US$5.5bn to US$6.1bn in net sales, alongside projected earnings per share between US$0.48 and US$0.58, has weighed heavily on investor confidence, resulting in a stock price decline. Its CEO noted the company’s reliance on Nvidia’s new chips for production but gave no timeline for securing a new auditor or resuming filings, putting Super Micro at risk of a Nasdaq delisting if deadlines are missed. With these uncertainties and a below-estimate second-quarter outlook, in the current quarter, we expect the company to face ongoing volatility and scrutiny as it works to restore investor confidence. 2Q25 recommended trading range: $20 to $28. Negative Outlook.

百胜中国 (YUMC)

• 24财年第三季营收：30.7亿美元，同比增幅5.5%
• 24财年第三季GAAP每股盈利：0.77美元
• 24财年指引：预期保持不变，计划净开设约1,500至1,700家新店，资本支出约为7亿至8.5亿美元，并通过季度现金股息和股票回购向股东返还15亿美元。
• 短评：百胜中国公布了强劲的第三季度业绩，总收入同比增长5.5%，达到30.7亿美元，营业利润增长15%，达到3.71亿美元。稀释后每股收益增长33%，至0.77美元。该公司将其足迹扩大到15,861个地点，增加了438家新店，数字销售额占总销售额的90%。尽管有这些增长，但同店销售额同比下降了3%，其中肯德基和必胜客分别下降了2%和6%。百胜中国将其2024年至2026年的股东回报目标从30亿美元上调至45亿美元。外卖销售额继续以两位数的速度增长，占总销售额的40%，而肯德基和必胜客的会员数量超过5.1亿。其首席执行官强调了公司的“RGM 2.0”战略，旨在提高运营效率和菜单创新，这为连续七个季度的同店交易增长和加强配送业绩做出了贡献。百胜中国还在扩大其特许经营业务，特别是在服务欠缺和偏远的市场，重点是战略地点和二三线城市。该公司计划进一步增加特许经营，并保持对股东的资本回报。24财年第四季度建议交易区间：45至55美元。积极前景。