Technical Analysis: 5 November 2026

Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: Revenue US$14.766bn versus US$13.467bn, +9.6% YoY; approximately US$96m above US$14.67bn consensus. Business-model changes reduced reported growth by eight percentage points. Gross bookings US$59.819bn, +20%; trips grew 16%. Constant-currency bookings growth was 20%. 

• 3Q26 EPS: Non-GAAP EPS US$0.88 versus US$0.65, +35.4%; beat US$0.87 consensus by US$0.01. GAAP diluted EPS US$0.25 versus US$3.11; current earnings include a US$476m pretax investment-revaluation loss. 

• 4Q26 Guidance: Gross bookings US$63.25–65.25bn, representing 18–22% constant-currency growth; non-GAAP EPS US$0.95–0.99. Adjusted EBITDA US$3.13–3.23bn. No revenue guidance provided; bookings are transaction value rather than recognised revenue. 

• FY26 Guidance: No standalone full-year revenue or EPS guidance provided. Management expects approximately 700 fully driverless vehicles on the platform by year-end and over 2,000 in 2027. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: No dividend or new buyback authorisation announced. Q3 repurchases US$750m. Operating cash flow US$2.639bn; free cash flow US$2.535bn. Unrestricted cash and short-term investments US$10.1bn. 

• Comment: Uber’s expanding audience and delivery profitability support the business, but driver shortages and autonomous-vehicle investment keep our outlook neutral. Revenue growth understates activity because business-model changes altered recognition, while bookings and trips continued to expand. GAAP earnings also face an unusually difficult comparison: last year included a major tax-valuation release and investment gains, whereas this quarter included investment losses. Non-GAAP profit better tracks operations, but excludes amortisation and legal costs that remain relevant to shareholders. Strong cash generation supports repurchases, although insurance reserves and other working-capital movements also influence cash conversion. Shares closed at US$69.87 on 4 November, up 4.91%. Valuation offers a more balanced entry after earlier weakness, yet the rally requires sustained execution. Watch driver recruitment, incentives, delivery margins, acquisition spending and autonomous fleet economics. Partnerships and vehicle targets must translate into profitable completed trips. Continued bookings growth alongside disciplined investment would support a more positive stance; persistent supply constraints would limit operating leverage. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$63–80. Neutral Outlook. 

优步 (UBER) 

• 2026财年第三季度营收：收入147.66亿美元，去年134.67亿美元，同比增长9.6%；较146.7亿美元预期高约9,600万美元。业务模式调整使报告增长减少八个百分点。总预订额598.19亿美元，增长20%；行程量增长16%。 按固定汇率计算的预订额增长亦为20%。 

• 2026财年第三季度每股收益：非GAAP每股盈利0.88美元，去年0.65美元，增长35.4%；较0.87美元预期高0.01美元。GAAP摊薄每股盈利0.25美元，去年3.11美元；本期盈利包含4.76亿美元税前投资重估损失。 

• 2026财年第四季度指引：总预订额632.5–652.5亿美元，按固定汇率增长18–22%；非GAAP每股盈利0.95–0.99美元。经调整EBITDA为31.3–32.3亿美元。未提供收入指引；预订额为交易价值，并非确认收入。 

• 2026财年指引：未提供独立全年收入或每股盈利指引。管理层预计年底平台上约有700辆完全无人驾驶车辆，2027年超过2,000辆。 

• 股息与回购：未宣布股息或新增回购授权。第三季度回购7.5亿美元。经营现金流26.39亿美元；自由现金流25.35亿美元。非受限现金及短期投资101亿美元。 

• 短评：优步用户扩大及配送盈利改善支持业务，但司机短缺及无人驾驶投资使我们维持中性。业务模式调整改变收入确认，使收入增长低估活动增幅，而预订额及行程量持续扩大。GAAP盈利比较亦异常困难：去年包括大额税项估值拨备转回及投资收益，本季则出现投资损失。非GAAP利润更能反映经营，但剔除的摊销及法律成本仍与股东相关。强劲现金创造支持回购，惟保险准备金及其他营运资金变动亦影响现金转化。股价于11月4日收报69.87美元，上涨4.91%。此前疲弱后估值提供较平衡切入点，但反弹仍要求持续执行。关注司机招聘、激励、配送利润率、收购开支及无人驾驶车队经济效益。合作与车辆目标须转化为有利润的已完成行程。预订额持续增长且投资有纪律，将支持更正面观点；供应长期受限则会限制经营杠杆。 2026年第四季度建议交易区间：63–80美元。中性展望。 

Vishay Intertechnology, Inc. (VSH) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: Revenue US$978.939m versus US$790.640m, +23.8% YoY; approximately US$15.22m above US$963.72m consensus. Book-to-bill 1.29; backlog 6.6 months. Gross margin rose to 25.5% from 19.5%. Volume increased 20% and average selling prices rose 4%; all technologies contributed to growth. 

• 3Q26 EPS: Adjusted diluted EPS US$0.37 versus US$0.04, +825%; beat US$0.28 consensus by US$0.09. Current GAAP EPS also US$0.37, versus a US$0.06 loss. Operating margin 9.4%; effective tax rate 32.4%. 

• 4Q26 Guidance: Revenue US$975–1,005m; gross margin 25.5–26.5%. No EPS guidance provided. Management expects a 30–35% effective tax rate, with year-end holiday closures included. 

• FY26 Guidance: The company did not provide full-year revenue or EPS guidance. Capex reduced to US$350–400m from US$400–440m; full-year free cash expected near break-even. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: Q3 dividend US$0.10/share; no repurchases. Operating cash flow US$145.763m; free cash US$98.475m. Cash and short-term investments approximately US$1.1bn. No new buyback announced. 

• Comment: Vishay’s recovery is broadening across semiconductors and passive components, but a neutral outlook reflects the cash demands of its expansion programme. Higher volumes and pricing lifted gross margin and operating profitability, while bookings above shipments support near-term visibility. The current quarter contains no EPS adjustments, making the operating improvement more persuasive; the year-earlier GAAP loss was distorted by a tax-law charge. Cash generation also improved, although lower quarterly capital spending partly reflects equipment delays rather than a permanent reduction in investment needs. Management’s near-break-even annual cash outlook and planned reduction in receivables securitisation temper the strong quarterly figure. Shares closed at US$25.84 on 4 November, down 5.07%. The decline leaves a more balanced valuation, yet investors still need evidence that the upcycle produces durable returns after expansion costs. Watch order cancellations, distributor inventories, pricing, tax rates and new-fab qualification. Converting backlog into cash while sustaining utilisation would strengthen the investment case. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$23–32. Neutral Outlook. 

威世科技 (VSH) 

• 2026财年第三季度营收：营收9.78939亿美元，去年7.90640亿美元，同比增长23.8%；较9.6372亿美元预期高约1,522万美元。订单出货比1.29；在手订单相当于6.6个月。毛利率由19.5%升至25.5%。销量增长20%，平均售价上涨4%；所有技术产品均贡献增长。 

• 2026财年第三季度每股收益：经调整摊薄每股盈利0.37美元，去年0.04美元，增长825%；较0.28美元预期高0.09美元。本季GAAP每股盈利亦为0.37美元，去年亏损0.06美元。经营利润率9.4%；实际税率32.4%。 

• 2026财年第四季度指引：营收9.75亿至10.05亿美元；毛利率25.5%至26.5%。公司未提供每股盈利指引。管理层预计实际税率30%至35%，收入已计入年末假期停工影响。 

• 2026财年指引：公司未提供全年收入或每股盈利指引。资本开支由4亿至4.4亿美元下调至3.5亿至4亿美元；全年自由现金预计接近收支平衡。 

• 股息与回购：第三季度每股股息0.10美元；未回购。经营现金流1.45763亿美元；自由现金9,847.5万美元。现金及短期投资约11亿美元。未宣布新回购。 

• 短评：威世复苏扩展至半导体及被动元件，但扩产计划的现金需求使我们维持中性。销量与价格上升推动毛利率及经营盈利，订单高于出货支持近期能见度。本季每股盈利没有调整项目，经营改善更具说服力；去年GAAP亏损则受税法变化费用干扰。现金创造亦改善，惟本季资本开支下降部分来自设备延迟，并非投资需求永久减少。管理层预计全年现金接近收支平衡，并计划缩减应收款证券化，令强劲单季现金表现需审慎解读。股价于11月4日收盘报25.84美元，下跌5.07%。回落使估值更平衡，投资者仍需观察上行周期能否在扩产成本后带来持久回报。关注取消订单、分销商库存、定价、税率及新厂认证。在保持利用率的同时将订单转化为现金，将强化投资逻辑。 2026年第四季度建议交易区间：23–32美元。中性展望。 

GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc. (GFS) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: Revenue US$1.899bn versus US$1.688bn, +12.5% YoY; approximately US$9m above US$1.89bn consensus. Communications infrastructure and data-center revenue grew 81%; non-IFRS gross margin reached 31.4%. Smart-mobile revenue declined 19%. Wafer shipments approximately 647,000 300mm equivalents, up 7% from a year earlier. 

• 3Q26 EPS: Non-IFRS diluted EPS US$0.53 versus US$0.41, +29.3%; beat US$0.51 consensus by US$0.02. IFRS loss US$0.49/share versus US$0.44 profit, primarily reflecting a US$441m non-cash government share-issuance charge. 

• 4Q26 Guidance: Revenue US$1.975–2.025bn; non-IFRS EPS US$0.54–0.64; IFRS EPS US$0.42–0.52, excluding uncertain further government share-issuance charges. Non-IFRS gross margin 30.5–32.5%. 

• FY26 Guidance: No full-year revenue or EPS guidance provided. Net capex remains 15–20% of revenue; free-cash-flow margin approximately 10%. Management expects approximately US$4bn net capex in 2027. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: Dividend US$0.12/share, payable 14 January 2027, record 22 December 2026. Q3 buybacks US$100m. Cash and securities US$3.2bn; operating cash flow US$341m; adjusted free cash flow US$136m. 

• Comment: GlobalFoundries’ richer business mix improves profitability, but large investment requirements and dilution keep our outlook neutral. Optical networking, automotive and industrial demand are offsetting smartphone weakness, while differentiated processes offer stronger economics than undifferentiated wafer capacity. The TSMC interposer agreement and expanded Marvell relationship add future revenue opportunities, although production ramps extend beyond the current earnings period. The IFRS loss largely reflects government equity issuance rather than deteriorating factory operations; nevertheless, dilution is an economic cost, and adjusted earnings also remove compensation and restructuring items. Cash conversion requires care because customer prepayments and government grants supported quarterly free cash flow. Those funding sources reduce immediate financing pressure but accompany future delivery obligations and substantial capacity spending. Shares closed at US$40.34 on 4 November, down 5.95%. Valuation is more balanced after the decline, but execution remains central. Watch optical capacity utilisation, customer commitments, mobile demand, further share issuance and whether new capacity earns attractive returns after depreciation. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$36–48. Neutral Outlook. 

格芯 (GFS) 

• 2026财年第三季度营收：营收18.99亿美元，去年16.88亿美元，同比增长12.5%；较18.9亿美元预期高约900万美元。通信基础设施及数据中心收入增长81%；非IFRS毛利率升至31.4%。智能移动设备收入下降19%。出货约64.7万片300毫米等效晶圆，同比增长7%。 

• 2026财年第三季度每股收益：非IFRS摊薄每股盈利0.53美元，去年0.41美元，增长29.3%；较0.51美元预期高0.02美元。IFRS每股亏损0.49美元，去年盈利0.44美元，主要反映向政府发行股份产生的4.41亿美元非现金费用。 

• 2026财年第四季度指引：营收19.75亿至20.25亿美元；非IFRS每股盈利0.54至0.64美元；IFRS每股盈利0.42至0.52美元，未计入尚不确定的进一步政府股份发行费用。非IFRS毛利率30.5%至32.5%。 

• 2026财年指引：公司未提供全年收入或每股盈利指引。净资本开支维持占收入15%至20%，自由现金流率约10%。管理层预计2027年净资本开支约40亿美元。 

• 股息与回购：每股股息0.12美元，2027年1月14日支付，登记日2026年12月22日。第三季度回购1亿美元。现金及有价证券32亿美元；经营现金流3.41亿美元；经调整自由现金流1.36亿美元。 

• 短评：格芯业务结构改善提升盈利，但大规模投资需求与摊薄使我们维持中性。光网络、汽车及工业需求抵消智能手机疲弱，差异化制程的经济效益优于同质化晶圆产能。台积电中介层协议及扩大的Marvell合作带来未来收入机会，惟量产放量超出当前业绩期间。IFRS亏损主要来自向政府发行股权，并非工厂经营恶化；不过，摊薄仍是经济成本，经调整盈利亦剔除薪酬及重组项目。现金转化需审慎看待，因客户预付款与政府补助支持了本季自由现金流。这些资金减少即时融资压力，但伴随未来交付义务及大量扩产支出。股价于11月4日收盘报40.34美元，下跌5.95%。回落后估值更平衡，执行仍是关键。关注光学产能利用率、客户承诺、手机需求、进一步股份发行，以及新产能在折旧后能否实现有吸引力的回报。 2026年第四季度建议交易区间：36–48美元。中性展望。 

CVS Health Corporation (CVS) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: Revenue US$108.399bn versus US$102.871bn, +5.4% YoY; approximately US$3.709bn above US$104.69bn consensus. Medical benefit ratio improved to 91.3% from 92.8%. 

• 3Q26 EPS: Adjusted diluted EPS US$2.09 versus US$1.60, +30.6%; beat US$1.65 consensus by US$0.44. GAAP EPS US$1.68 versus a US$3.13 loss, reflecting the absence of last year’s US$5.7bn goodwill impairment. 

• 4Q26 Guidance: No standalone Q4 revenue or EPS guidance provided. Preliminary FY27 adjusted EPS expectation at least US$8.65; formal FY27 guidance expected with Q4 results. 

• FY26 Guidance: Revenue floor raised to US$420bn from US$414bn; adjusted EPS to at least US$8.20 from US$7.90–8.10. GAAP EPS to at least US$6.98 from US$6.84–7.04; operating cash flow to at least US$15.5bn from US$11.5bn. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: Quarterly dividend US$0.665/share paid 2 November, record date 22 October. No nine-month repurchases; US$11.5bn remains authorised. Management plans to resume repurchases in Q4. Nine-month operating cash flow US$15.3bn. 

• Comment: CVS’s insurance recovery and stronger pharmacy earnings support cash generation, but the proposed separation adds uncertainty and keeps our outlook neutral. Lower medical costs relative to premiums indicate progress in Medicare pricing and underwriting. The GAAP turnaround, however, largely reflects the absence of last year’s goodwill impairment, while prior-year reserve development and working-capital timing also require scrutiny when assessing recurring earnings and cash. Management now plans to separate retail pharmacy from Aetna, Caremark and other healthcare assets in the first half of 2028. Greater focus could improve capital allocation, but debt allocation, lost efficiencies and execution costs remain unresolved. Shares closed at US$79.96 on 4 November, down 12.53%. The decline makes valuation more attractive, though breakup value is not assured. Watch medical utilisation, reserve adequacy, PBM retention, pharmacy reimbursement and separation disclosures. Resuming repurchases may support EPS, but durable margin recovery and independently sustainable cash flows matter more for a positive reassessment. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$75–92. Neutral Outlook. 

CVS健康 (CVS) 

• 2026财年第三季度营收：收入1,083.99亿美元，去年1,028.71亿美元，同比增长5.4%；较1,046.9亿美元预期高约37.09亿美元。医疗赔付率由92.8%改善至91.3%。 

• 2026财年第三季度每股收益：经调整摊薄每股盈利2.09美元，去年1.60美元，增长30.6%；较1.65美元预期高0.44美元。GAAP每股盈利1.68美元，去年亏损3.13美元，反映去年57亿美元商誉减值不再发生。 

• 2026财年第四季度指引：未提供独立第四季度收入或每股盈利指引。FY27初步经调整每股盈利预期至少8.65美元；正式FY27指引预计随第四季度业绩发布。 

• 2026财年指引：收入下限由4,140亿美元升至4,200亿美元；经调整每股盈利由7.90–8.10美元升至至少8.20美元。GAAP每股盈利由6.84–7.04美元改为至少6.98美元；经营现金流由至少115亿美元升至至少155亿美元。 

• 股息与回购：季度股息每股0.665美元已于11月2日支付，登记日10月22日。首九个月未回购；剩余授权115亿美元。管理层计划第四季度恢复回购。首九个月经营现金流153亿美元。 

• 短评：CVS保险业务复苏及药房盈利增强支持现金创造，但拟议分拆增加不确定性，使我们维持中性。医疗成本相对于保费下降，显示Medicare定价及承保取得进展。不过，GAAP扭亏主要来自去年商誉减值不再发生；评估经常性盈利及现金流时，亦须审视往年准备金发展及营运资金时点。管理层计划于2028年上半年将零售药房与Aetna、Caremark及其他医疗资产分拆。更聚焦或可改善资本配置，但债务分配、效率损失及执行成本仍待厘清。股价于11月4日收报79.96美元，下跌12.53%。跌幅提高估值吸引力，但分拆价值并无保证。关注医疗使用率、准备金充足性、药房福利管理客户留存、药房报销及分拆披露。恢复回购或支持每股盈利，但持久利润率复苏及两家公司独立可持续的现金流，更能支持转为正面。 2026年第四季度建议交易区间：75–92美元。中性展望。 

Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: Total revenue and reserve income US$864.888m versus US$739.759m, +16.9% YoY; approximately US$76.34m above US$788.55m consensus. Reserve income fell 7.5%; other revenue included US$182m ARC token-presale revenue. 

• 3Q26 EPS: GAAP diluted EPS US$0.84 versus US$0.64, +31.3%; beat US$0.39 consensus by US$0.45. Net income US$226.0m versus US$214.4m. Adjusted EBITDA US$317m, +85%, includes ARC presale revenue. 

• 4Q26 Guidance: No standalone Q4 revenue or EPS guidance provided. Management expects non-ARC other revenue to increase sequentially as more blockchain integrations are monetised. 

• FY26 Guidance: Guidance unchanged: other revenue US$310–330m, including US$182m ARC presale; revenue-less-distribution-cost margin 41.7–43.7%; adjusted operating expenses US$570–585m, trending towards the high end. No total revenue or EPS guidance provided. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: No dividend or buyback announced. Corporate cash US$1.700bn excludes segregated stablecoin reserves. Nine-month operating cash flow US$523m includes US$242.2m ARC-presale proceeds. Pending Tazapay acquisition expected to close in 2027. 

• Comment: Circle’s payments network is expanding, but the earnings beat depends heavily on token monetisation and keeps our outlook neutral. Average USDC circulation increased, yet lower reserve yields reduced interest income. ARC presale revenue carried no distribution costs, sharply lifting reported margins; excluding ARC, the retention margin was approximately flat year over year. That distinction matters because transaction growth alone does not ensure stronger recurring economics. Operating cash flow also benefited from presale receipts rather than an equivalent improvement in core stablecoin profitability. Corporate liquidity supports investment, while customer reserve assets remain segregated. Shares closed at US$76.12 on 4 November, up 1.20%. Valuation still requires sustained circulation growth and meaningful payment-fee revenue beyond episodic token sales. Watch distribution agreements, reserve yields, USDC market share, Arc adoption and Tazapay integration. Regulatory implementation could encourage institutional use, but commercial returns must cover rising infrastructure and marketing costs. Improving recurring revenue and cash conversion would justify greater confidence. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$65–88. Neutral Outlook. 

Circle互联网集团 (CRCL) 

• 2026财年第三季度营收：总收入及储备收益8.64888亿美元，去年7.39759亿美元，同比增长16.9%；较7.8855亿美元预期高约7,634万美元。储备收益下降7.5%；其他收入包括1.82亿美元ARC代币预售收入。 

• 2026财年第三季度每股收益：GAAP摊薄每股盈利0.84美元，去年0.64美元，增长31.3%；较0.39美元预期高0.45美元。净利润2.260亿美元，去年2.144亿美元。经调整EBITDA为3.17亿美元，增长85%，包括ARC预售收入。 

• 2026财年第四季度指引：未提供独立第四季度收入或每股盈利指引。管理层预计随更多区块链整合实现变现，非ARC其他收入环比增加。 

• 2026财年指引：指引维持不变：其他收入3.10–3.30亿美元，包含1.82亿美元ARC预售；扣除分销成本后的收入比率41.7–43.7%；经调整经营费用5.70–5.85亿美元，趋向区间高端。未提供总收入或每股盈利指引。 

• 股息与回购：未宣布股息或回购。公司现金17.00亿美元，不包括隔离的稳定币储备。首九个月经营现金流5.23亿美元，包括2.422亿美元ARC预售款。拟议Tazapay收购预计2027年完成。 

• 短评：Circle支付网络扩大，但盈利超预期高度依赖代币变现，使我们维持中性。平均USDC流通量增加，惟储备收益率下降削弱利息收入。ARC预售收入没有分销成本，显著提高报告利润率；剔除ARC后，收入留存比率同比大致持平。此区别重要，因为交易量增长并不保证经常性经济效益改善。经营现金流亦受预售收款支持，并非核心稳定币盈利同步增强。公司流动性支持投资，而客户储备资产保持隔离。股价于11月4日收报76.12美元，上涨1.20%。估值仍要求流通量持续增长，并在间歇性代币销售以外形成实质支付费用收入。关注分销协议、储备收益率、USDC份额、Arc采用及Tazapay整合。监管落实或可鼓励机构使用，但商业回报须覆盖增加的基础设施及营销成本。经常性收入及现金转化改善，将增强信心。 2026年第四季度建议交易区间：65–88美元。中性展望。 

AppLovin Corporation (APP) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: Quarterly revenue US$2.1848bn versus US$1.4050bn, +55.5% YoY; approximately US$114.8m above US$2.07bn consensus. Adjusted EBITDA US$1.842bn, +59.1%, with an 84% margin. 

• 3Q26 EPS: GAAP diluted EPS US$4.30 versus US$2.45, +75.5%; beat US$4.03 consensus by US$0.27. Net income US$1.439bn, +72.2%; quarterly stock compensation US$84.2m. GAAP net margin increased to 66% from 59%; diluted average shares declined to 334.8m from 341.0m, supporting per-share growth beyond net-income growth. 

• 4Q26 Guidance: Revenue US$2.365–2.395bn; adjusted EBITDA US$1.995–2.025bn; adjusted EBITDA margin 84–85%. No EPS guidance provided. 

• FY26 Guidance: No standalone annual revenue or EPS range. Management maintains free-cash-flow conversion of approximately 70–75% of adjusted EBITDA; the Q4 outlook implies full-year revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth above 50%. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: No dividend. Quarterly repurchases and employee-share withholding totalled US$1.4bn. Authorisation increased US$3.2bn to US$3.6bn at October-end. Quarterly operating and free cash flow approximately US$1.4bn; cash US$3.174bn. 

• Comment: AppLovin’s quarter restores confidence that better prediction models can produce growth beyond the underlying mobile advertising market. Gaming improvements and expanding consumer advertising supported both sales and unusually strong operating margins. Earnings quality is reinforced by substantial operating cash generation, although tax-payment timing makes sequential cash comparisons uneven. Share compensation remains an economic cost, and reported capital returns include employee tax withholding as well as discretionary repurchases. Consumer advertising offers meaningful runway, but broader adoption still requires demonstrable advertiser returns, while connected television remains an early experiment. Shares traded at US$333.80 post-market on 4 November, up 22.83% from the close. A Positive outlook reflects attractive cash economics and renewed execution, with the sharp rally reducing the margin for disappointment. Watch model rollout consistency, repeat consumer-advertiser spending, holiday conversion, infrastructure costs and receivable collections. Sustained growth after seasonal demand normalises will matter more than extrapolating one exceptional quarter or assuming every new advertising channel scales successfully. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$300–400. Positive Outlook. 

AppLovin (APP) 

• 2026财年第三季度营收：营收21.848亿美元，上年同期14.050亿美元，同比增长55.5%；较市场预期20.7亿美元高约1.148亿美元。调整后EBITDA为18.42亿美元，增长59.1%，利润率84%。 

• 2026财年第三季度每股收益：GAAP摊薄每股收益4.30美元，上年同期2.45美元，增长75.5%；较市场预期4.03美元高0.27美元。净利润14.39亿美元，增长72.2%；单季股权薪酬8,420万美元。 GAAP净利率由59%升至66%；摊薄平均股数由3.410亿股降至3.348亿股，支持每股收益增长快于净利润。 

• 2026财年第四季度指引：营收23.65亿–23.95亿美元；调整后EBITDA为19.95亿–20.25亿美元；调整后EBITDA利润率84%–85%。未提供每股收益指引。 

• 2026财年指引：未提供独立全年营收或每股收益区间。管理层维持自由现金流约相当于调整后EBITDA的70%–75%；第四季度展望隐含全年营收及调整后EBITDA增长超过50%。 

• 股息与回购：不派息。单季回购及员工股份代扣合计14亿美元。回购授权增加32亿美元，10月底合计36亿美元。单季经营现金流及自由现金流均约14亿美元；现金31.74亿美元。 

• 短评：AppLovin本季恢复市场对预测模型改善可推动增长快于移动广告市场的信心。游戏业务改善及消费者广告扩张共同支持销售和较高营业利润率。充裕经营现金流支持盈利质量，不过缴税时点令现金流环比比较存在波动。股权薪酬仍具经济成本，报告资本回报也包含员工税款代扣，并非全部为自主回购。消费者广告仍有明显拓展空间，但更广泛采用需要可验证的广告主回报，联网电视则处于早期试验阶段。股价11月4日盘后报333.80美元，较收盘上涨22.83%。正面展望反映现金经济效益吸引力及执行恢复，但大幅上涨降低了对失望的容忍度。关注模型推广稳定性、消费者广告主重复支出、假日转化率、基础设施成本及应收款回收。季节需求正常化后能否持续增长，比外推单个强劲季度或假设每个新广告渠道均能成功扩张更重要。 2026年第四季度建议交易区间：300–400美元。正面展望。 

QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) 

• 4QFY26 Revenue: GAAP revenue US$10.322bn versus US$11.270bn, −8.4% YoY; approximately US$182m above US$10.14bn consensus. Non-GAAP revenue US$10.442bn excludes a US$120m customer legal-settlement payment. Automotive revenue rose 89% to US$2.0bn. 

• 4QFY26 EPS: Non-GAAP diluted EPS US$2.17 versus US$3.00, −27.7%; beat US$2.16 consensus by US$0.01. GAAP EPS US$1.17 versus a US$2.89 loss; the prior-year quarter included a major tax charge. QCT pretax margin fell to 24% from 29%; quarterly share compensation US$873m. Licensing-segment revenue declined 7% to US$1.304bn. 

• 1QFY27 Guidance: Revenue US$10.4–11.2bn; non-GAAP EPS US$2.15–2.35; GAAP EPS US$1.03–1.23. Data-centre revenue above US$650m; QCT pretax margin 20–22%. 

• FY27 Guidance: No total-revenue or EPS range provided. Reiterates US$5bn data-centre revenue; expects QCT non-handset growth above 60% and a majority of QCT annual revenue. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: Dividend US$0.92, payable 17 December; record 3 December. Quarterly buybacks US$1.011bn. FY26 operating cash flow US$11.145bn; capital expenditure US$2.494bn; total dividends and buybacks US$11.671bn. 

• Comment: Qualcomm’s diversification is becoming tangible, but the transition has not yet repaired earnings momentum. Automotive growth and the start of custom data-centre shipments offset part of the handset decline, while renewed licensing agreements improve revenue visibility. However, higher semiconductor input costs, Apple modem substitution and investment ahead of AI revenue continue to pressure profitability. GAAP earnings comparisons are distorted by last year’s tax charge and this year’s earlier tax benefit; adjusted EPS offers a clearer view and still declined substantially. Its exclusions also remove material share compensation. Annual dividends and buybacks exceeded free cash flow after capital spending, limiting room to repeat capital returns indefinitely without stronger cash generation. Shares traded at US$160.16 post-market on 4 November, down 7.52% from the close. A Neutral outlook reflects fair valuation against meaningful execution risk. Watch data-centre shipment milestones, customer concentration, handset pricing, inventory conversion and whether new business improves operating profit as well as revenue rather than merely changing the sales mix. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$140–185. Neutral Outlook. 

高通 (QCOM) 

• 2026财年第四季度营收：GAAP营收103.22亿美元，上年同期112.70亿美元，同比下降8.4%；较市场预期101.4亿美元高约1.82亿美元。非GAAP营收104.42亿美元，剔除向客户支付的1.20亿美元法律和解款。汽车营收增长89%至20亿美元。 

• 2026财年第四季度每股收益：非GAAP摊薄每股收益2.17美元，上年同期3.00美元，下降27.7%；较市场预期2.16美元高0.01美元。GAAP每股收益1.17美元，上年同期亏损2.89美元；上年同期包含重大税费。 QCT税前利润率由29%降至24%；单季股权薪酬8.73亿美元。授权业务分部营收下降7%至13.04亿美元。 

• 2027财年第一季度指引：营收104亿–112亿美元；非GAAP每股收益2.15–2.35美元；GAAP每股收益1.03–1.23美元。数据中心营收超过6.50亿美元；QCT税前利润率20%–22%。 

• 2027财年指引：未提供总营收或每股收益区间。重申数据中心营收50亿美元；预计QCT非手机业务增长超过60%，并占QCT全年营收过半。 

• 股息与回购：每股派息0.92美元，12月17日支付，12月3日登记。单季回购10.11亿美元。FY26经营现金流111.45亿美元，资本支出24.94亿美元；股息及回购合计116.71亿美元。 

• 短评：高通多元化开始形成实质贡献，但转型尚未扭转盈利动能。汽车增长及定制数据中心芯片开始出货，抵消部分手机下滑，续签授权协议也改善收入可见度。不过，半导体投入成本上涨、苹果替换外购基带，以及AI收入兑现前的投入继续压制盈利。GAAP同比受到上年税费及本年度较早确认税务收益扭曲；调整后每股收益更具参考价值，但仍明显下降，其调整亦剔除大量股权薪酬。全年股息与回购超过扣除资本支出后的自由现金流，若现金创造未增强，难以无限期维持同等资本回报。股价11月4日盘后报160.16美元，较收盘下跌7.52%。中性展望反映估值合理，但执行风险仍明显。关注数据中心出货里程碑、客户集中度、手机定价、存货转化，以及新业务能否同时提升营业利润与营收，而不只是改变销售组合。 2026年第四季度建议交易区间：140–185美元。中性展望。 

Coherent Corp. (COHR) 

• 1QFY27 Revenue: Revenue US$2.3703bn versus US$1.5814bn, +49.9% YoY; beat US$2.30bn consensus by US$70.3m. Pro forma growth 56%; Datacenter and Communications revenue US$1.952bn, +79%. Industrial revenue US$418.6m versus US$491.4m, −14.8% as reported; management described pro forma industrial revenue as flat after adjusting for divestitures. 

• 1QFY27 EPS: Non-GAAP diluted EPS US$2.09 versus US$1.16, +80.2%; beat US$1.97 consensus by US$0.12. GAAP EPS US$1.90 versus US$1.19, +59.7%, including a US$22.8m tax benefit. Non-GAAP gross margin 40.6%. 

• 2QFY27 Guidance: Revenue US$2.55–2.75bn; non-GAAP EPS US$2.28–2.48; non-GAAP gross margin 40–42%; operating expenses US$430–450m. 

• FY27 Guidance: Expects pro forma revenue growth above 60% and its first US$3bn revenue quarter by fiscal year-end. No annual EPS or absolute revenue range. New longer-term non-GAAP gross-margin target above 45% before calendar 2028 ends. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: No common dividend or new buyback announced. Operating cash outflow US$92.7m; capital expenditure US$775.5m; free cash outflow US$868.2m. Cash US$1.553bn; short-term investments US$200m; debt approximately US$4.0bn. 

• Comment: Coherent’s optical demand remains compelling, with faster datacentre growth and improving manufacturing yields supporting real operating leverage. Higher-speed transceivers, indium-phosphide components and PhotonLink broaden the growth opportunity. The newly disclosed five-year PhotonLink agreement provides visibility, but its approximately US$20bn value begins ramping only in early 2028 and should not be treated as current revenue. Earnings quality requires closer attention than the adjusted beat suggests: GAAP profit benefits from a tax benefit, while stock compensation and amortisation are excluded from adjusted results. More significantly, inventory and capacity expansion consumed cash, producing substantial negative free cash flow despite rising profits. Customer upfront payments can share funding risk, but do not eliminate production and collection obligations. Shares traded at US$204.79 post-market on 4 November, up 4.97% from the close. A Neutral outlook reflects a valuation dependent on delivering growth without prolonged cash deficits. Watch customer commitments, yields, inventory turns, capital intensity and whether capacity additions convert into cash-generating shipments without materially increasing leverage. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$180–245. Neutral Outlook. 

高意 (COHR) 

• 2027财年第一季度营收：营收23.703亿美元，上年同期15.814亿美元，同比增长49.9%；较市场预期23.0亿美元高7,030万美元。备考增长56%；数据中心及通信营收19.52亿美元，增长79%。 工业营收4.186亿美元，上年同期4.914亿美元，报告口径下降14.8%；管理层表示，调整出售业务后的备考工业营收持平。 

• 2027财年第一季度每股收益：非GAAP摊薄每股收益2.09美元，上年同期1.16美元，增长80.2%；较市场预期1.97美元高0.12美元。GAAP每股收益1.90美元，上年同期1.19美元，增长59.7%，包含2,280万美元所得税收益。非GAAP毛利率40.6%。 

• 2027财年第二季度指引：营收25.5亿–27.5亿美元；非GAAP每股收益2.28–2.48美元；非GAAP毛利率40%–42%；营业费用4.30亿–4.50亿美元。 

• 2027财年指引：预计备考营收增长超过60%，并于财年末前实现首个30亿美元营收季度。未提供全年每股收益或营收绝对金额区间。新的较长期非GAAP毛利率目标为2028年底前首次超过45%。 

• 股息与回购：未宣布普通股派息或新回购。经营现金净流出9,270万美元；资本支出7.755亿美元；自由现金净流出8.682亿美元。现金15.53亿美元，短期投资2亿美元，债务约40亿美元。 

• 短评：Coherent光通信需求仍具吸引力，数据中心增长加快及制造良率改善支持实际经营杠杆。更高速收发器、磷化铟组件及PhotonLink拓宽增长空间。新披露的五年PhotonLink协议提供可见度，但约200亿美元合同价值要到2028年初才开始放量，不应当作当前营收。盈利质量需比调整后超预期数字更仔细审视：GAAP利润受惠于所得税收益，调整后指标则剔除股权薪酬及摊销。更关键的是，存货及扩产消耗现金，令利润增加同时出现大量负自由现金流。客户预付款可分担资金风险，但不消除生产及回款义务。股价11月4日盘后报204.79美元，较收盘上涨4.97%。中性展望反映估值仍依赖增长兑现，且现金赤字不能长期持续。关注客户承诺、良率、存货周转、资本密集度，以及新增产能能否转化为产生现金的出货，同时避免杠杆显著上升。 2026年第四季度建议交易区间：180–245美元。中性展望。 

Arm Holdings plc (ARM) 

• 2Q27 Revenue: Revenue US$1.443bn versus US$1.135bn, +27.1% YoY; approximately US$63m above US$1.38bn consensus. Licensing US$773m, +50%; royalties US$670m, +8%. Data-center royalties doubled. Annualised contract value US$1.790bn, up 12% YoY. 

• 2Q27 EPS: Non-GAAP diluted EPS US$0.52 versus US$0.39, +33.3%; beat US$0.47 consensus by US$0.05. GAAP EPS US$0.12 versus US$0.22. Non-GAAP operating margin 44.2%; equity-settled stock compensation US$377m. 

• 3Q27 Guidance: Revenue US$1.49–1.59bn; non-GAAP diluted EPS US$0.52–0.60; non-GAAP operating expenses approximately US$825m. Royalty growth expected in low single digits YoY; licensing growth a little over 50%. 

• FY27 Guidance: The company did not provide full-year revenue or EPS guidance. AGI CPU revenue opportunity across FY27–FY28 increased to up to US$2bn from more than US$1bn; first commercial deliveries targeted for fiscal 4Q27. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: No dividend or new buyback announced. Cash and short-term investments US$3.621bn. Quarterly operating cash flow US$207m versus US$567m; non-GAAP free cash flow US$110m versus US$411m. 

• Comment: Arm’s licensing strength and data-center adoption improve the long-term opportunity, but valuation and near-term royalty growth keep our view neutral. Higher-value architectures and compute subsystems can increase revenue per chip, while direct silicon adds another potential growth engine. However, licensing remains sensitive to deal timing, and strong licence revenue does not immediately become recurring royalties. Smartphone pressure continues to restrain the royalty base despite cloud growth. Adjusted profitability improved, but substantial stock compensation creates a wide gap to GAAP earnings. The year-earlier business disposal also complicates the net-profit comparison, and quarterly cash generation fell despite revenue growth. AGI CPU commitments are encouraging, yet supply execution, customer acceptance and returns on engineering investment remain to be proven. Shares traded at US$188.29 post-market on 4 November, down 1.83% from the close. The decline leaves expectations demanding. Watch royalty acceleration, licensing concentration, silicon delivery milestones, cash collections and whether direct chip sales complement rather than strain partner relationships. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$165–225. Neutral Outlook. 

安谋控股 (ARM) 

• 2027财年第二季度营收：营收14.43亿美元，去年11.35亿美元，同比增长27.1%；较13.8亿美元预期高约6,300万美元。授权收入7.73亿美元，增长50%；版税6.70亿美元，增长8%。数据中心版税翻倍。年化合同价值17.90亿美元，同比增长12%。 

• 2027财年第二季度每股收益：非GAAP摊薄每股盈利0.52美元，去年0.39美元，增长33.3%；较0.47美元预期高0.05美元。GAAP每股盈利0.12美元，去年0.22美元。非GAAP经营利润率44.2%；股权结算薪酬3.77亿美元。 

• 2027财年第三季度指引：营收14.9亿至15.9亿美元；非GAAP摊薄每股盈利0.52至0.60美元；非GAAP经营费用约8.25亿美元。版税预计同比增长低个位数，授权收入增长略高于50%。 

• 2027财年指引：公司未提供全年收入或每股盈利指引。FY27至FY28两年AGI CPU收入机会由超过10亿美元提高至最高20亿美元；首批商业交付目标为2027财年第四季度。 

• 股息与回购：未宣布股息或新回购。现金及短期投资36.21亿美元。本季经营现金流2.07亿美元，去年5.67亿美元；非GAAP自由现金流1.10亿美元，去年4.11亿美元。 

• 短评：安谋授权业务强劲及数据中心采用改善长期机会，但估值与近期版税增长使我们维持中性。更高价值架构及计算子系统可提高单芯片收入，直接销售芯片则增加潜在增长引擎。不过，授权收入受交易时点影响，强劲授权收入不会立即转为重复版税。尽管云业务增长，智能手机压力仍限制版税基础。经调整盈利能力改善，惟大量股权薪酬导致其与GAAP盈利存在明显差距。去年业务处置亦影响净利润可比性，季度现金创造在收入增长下反而下降。AGI CPU订单承诺令人鼓舞，但供应执行、客户验收及研发投资回报仍待验证。股价于11月4日盘后报188.29美元，较收盘下跌1.83%。回落后市场预期仍高。关注版税加速、授权客户集中度、芯片交付里程碑、回款，以及直接售芯片能否补充而非损害合作伙伴关系。 2026年第四季度建议交易区间：165–225美元。中性展望。