Technical Analysis – 5 June 2026

Ciena Corporation (CIEN) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $1.57B, +38.9% YoY, beat estimates by $70M 

• 2Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.64, beat estimates by $0.19 

• 3Q26 Guidance: 3Q26 revenue guided to $1.625B ± $50M.  

• FY26 Guidance: FY26 revenue guidance was raised to about $6.3B ± $100M. 

• Comment: This was a strong quarter. Revenue grew 40% YoY, adjusted gross margin expanded, and adjusted EPS nearly quadrupled, which indicates Ciena is seeing real operating leverage from the current optical and AI networking cycle. Management also pointed to strong hyperscaler demand and disclosed what it described as the industry’s first multi-rail networking order from a hyperscaler, which supports the view that AI-driven network upgrades are becoming a meaningful growth driver. The main issue was expectations rather than execution. Even with the beat and raised full-year revenue outlook, the stock fell sharply after the release, with a drop of roughly 15% to 19%. The market appears to have been positioned for an even larger beat-and-raise after the stock’s very strong run into earnings. The principal variables to monitor are hyperscaler order conversion, supply-chain constraints, whether AI-related demand broadens beyond current large customers, and whether the stronger FY26 outlook translates into further estimate revisions. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $500 to $580. Neutral Outlook. 

 

Ciena Corporation（CIEN) 

 

• 26财年第二季度营收：15.7亿美元，同比增长38.9%，超出预期7000万美元 

• 26财年第二季度非公认会计准则每股收益：1.64美元，大幅超出预期0.19美元 

• 26财年第三季度指引：营收16.25亿美元（±5000万美元） 

• 26财年全年指引：上调全年营收至约63亿美元（±1亿美元） 

• 短评：本季度表现强劲，充分受益于AI驱动的光网络升级周期。营收同比增长近40%，调整后毛利率扩张，调整后EPS接近翻两番，显示公司正实现显著的运营杠杆。管理层特别指出，已获得业内首个“多轨”（multi-rail）网络订单来自超大规模客户（hyperscaler），印证AI集群对高带宽、低延迟互连架构的需求正转化为实质性收入增长。然而，市场反应却显著负面——股价盘后暴跌15%–19%。这并非源于执行不力，而是因投资者在财报前已将股价推高至高位，期待更大幅度的上修；实际结果虽优，但未达“惊喜”阈值，导致利好出尽式回调。后续关键变量包括：（1）超大规模客户订单向确认收入的转化效率；（2）供应链是否能支撑交付节奏；（3）AI相关需求能否从头部客户向更广泛企业扩展；（4）全年63亿美元营收指引能否推动分析师进一步上调盈利预测。尽管短期波动，Ciena作为AI基础设施核心光网络供应商的地位持续强化。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：500美元至580美元。中性前景。 
   

Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK) 

• 1Q27 Revenue: $387.07M, +39.0% YoY, beat estimates by $20.75M 

• 1Q27 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.16, beat estimates by $0.19 

• 2Q27 Guidance: 2Q27 revenue guided to about $396M at the midpoint, above expectations. Subscription ARR reached $1.57B, up 32% YoY. 

• Comment: This was a strong quarter. Revenue grew 39% YoY, subscription ARR rose 32% to $1.57B, and the company added to its large-customer base, with 2,946 customers generating at least $100K in ARR, up 24% YoY. The results indicate continued strength in cyber resilience and data security demand, with subscription software still driving the bulk of the business. The key positive is that both the quarter and the forward guide came in ahead of expectations. That supports the view that Rubrik is still executing well after its IPO and that demand remains healthy among larger enterprise customers. The stock reaction was mixed to slightly negative after hours despite the beat, which suggests expectations had already moved up and the market wanted a bigger upside surprise. The principal variables to monitor are subscription ARR growth, conversion of large deals into revenue, margin improvement as scale builds, and whether the company can keep compounding enterprise customer additions at the current pace. 2Q27 recommended trading range: $65 to $90. Neutral Outlook. 

 

Rubrik, Inc.（RBRK) 

 

• 27财年第一季度营收：3.8707亿美元，同比增长39.0%，超出预期2075万美元 

• 27财年第一季度非公认会计准则每股收益：0.16美元，大幅优于预期0.19美元（市场此前预期为亏损0.03美元） 

• 27财年第二季度指引：营收中值约3.96亿美元，高于市场预期；订阅ARR达15.7亿美元，同比增长32% 

• 短评：本季度表现强劲，彰显公司在企业级数据安全与网络韧性领域的持续领先地位。营收高增长由订阅模式驱动，年化经常性收入（ARR），其中年贡献超10万美元的大型客户达2946家（+24% YoY），显示其在大型企业市场的渗透仍在加速。核心亮点在于当季业绩与前瞻指引双双超预期，印证Rubrik在IPO后仍保持高效执行，且企业对云数据保护、勒索软件防御等解决方案的需求保持健康。然而，盘后股价反应偏弱甚至小幅下跌，反映市场在财报前已上调预期，期待更大幅度的惊喜；实际结果虽扎实，但未触发新一轮估值重估。后续关键变量包括：（1）订阅ARR能否维持30%+增速；（2）大额交易（land-and-expand）向确认收入的转化效率；（3）随着规模扩大，运营杠杆是否推动利润率持续改善；（4）企业客户扩张节奏能否延续。27财年第二季度建议交易区间：65美元至90美元。中性前景。 
   

Planet Labs PBC. (PL) 

• 1Q27 Revenue: $94M, +41.9% YoY, beat estimates by $3.87M 

• 1Q27 Non-GAAP EPS: –$0.03, beat estimates by $0.01 

• 2Q27 Guidance: Expect revenue to be in the range of approximately $102M to $107M, non-GAAP gross margin is expected to be in the range of approximately 52% to 55%, adjusted EBITDA profit is expected to be in the range of approximately $0 to $5M and capital expenditures are expected to be in the range of approximately $21M and $27M for the quarter. 

• FY27 Guidance: Expect revenue to be in the range of approximately $425M to $441M, non-GAAP gross margin is expected to be in the range of approximately 52% to 54%, adjusted EBITDA profit is expected to be in 

• the range of approximately $0 and $10M and capital expenditures are expected to be approximately $80M and $95M for the year. 

• Comment: Planet Labs reported a record Q1 revenue of US$94.2mn, rising 42% YoY, driven by robust demand from defence, intelligence, and government customers, while backlog surged 72% YoY to over US$906mn and remaining performance obligations rose 81% to US$816mn, providing strong long-term revenue visibility. The company secured multiple high-profile contracts with organizations including the U.S. Navy, NGA, Sweden, Greece, and other international defence customers, while continuing to expand its satellite capabilities through additional Pelican launches and new AI-powered geospatial analytics products. Although GAAP net loss widened to US$138.9mn due primarily to a non-cash warrant revaluation loss, underlying operations remained stable with an adjusted EBITDA loss of just US$1.0mn, and Planet ended the quarter with a strong cash position of US$731mn after warrant exercises. Looking ahead, Planet is well-positioned to benefit from rising global demand for defence surveillance, sovereign intelligence, agricultural monitoring, and AI-enabled geospatial analytics, with its growing backlog, expanding Pelican constellation, new AI products, and increasingly mission-critical role in government and defence workflows supporting continued revenue growth and a path toward sustainable profitability. 2Q27 recommended trading range: $40 to $50. Positive Outlook. 

 

Planet Labs PBC.（PL) 

 

• 27财年第一季度营收：9400万美元，同比+41.9%，超出预期387万美元 

• 27财年第一季度Non-GAAP每股收益：-0.03美元，超出预期0.01美元 

• 27财年第二季度指引：预计营收约在1.02亿至1.07亿美元之间；预计Non-GAAP毛利率约在52%至55%之间；预计调整后EBITDA利润约在0至500万美元之间；预计本季度资本开支约在2100万至2700万美元之间。 

• 27财年全年指引：预计营收约在4.25亿至4.41亿美元之间；预计Non-GAAP毛利率约在52%至54%之间；预计调整后EBITDA利润约在0至1000万美元之间；预计全年资本开支约在8000万至9500万美元之间。 

• 短评：Planet Labs公布创纪录的27财年第一季度营收9420万美元，同比增长42%，主要由国防、情报以及政府客户的强劲需求推动；同时积压订单同比增长72%至超过9.06亿美元，剩余履约义务同比增长81%至8.16亿美元，为长期营收可见度提供支撑。公司还与包括美国海军、NGA、瑞典、希腊在内的多家机构及国际国防客户签署多份重要合同，并通过新增Pelican发射扩展卫星能力，同时推出新的AI驱动地理空间分析产品。尽管由于非现金的认股权证重估损失，GAAP净亏损扩大至1.389亿美元，但公司的基础经营保持稳定：调整后EBITDA亏损仅约100万美元；公司在认股权证行权后，本季度末现金状况较强，现金为7.31亿美元。展望未来，Planet有望受益于全球对国防监视、主权情报、农业监测以及AI赋能地理空间分析需求的上升；随着积压订单增长、Pelican星座持续扩张、AI产品持续推出，并且其在政府与国防任务流程中的关键地位不断提升，公司预计将持续实现营收增长，并逐步走向可持续盈利。2Q27建议交易区间：40美元至50美元。积极前景。 

 

Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU) 

• 1Q26 Revenue: $2.47B, +4.2% YoY, beat estimates by $40M 

• 1Q26 GAAP EPS: $1.69, beat estimates by $0.02 

• 2Q26 Guidance: Expect sales to be between $2.45B and $2.48B, below expectations of $2.60B and earnings per share to be between $1.76 and $1.81, well below expectations of $2.68. 

• FY26 Guidance: Lowered its revenue outlook to be between $11B and $11.15B, down from a previous range of between $11.35B and $11.50Bm compared to expectations of $11.48B. It also lowered its earnings per share guidance to be between $10.95 and $11.15, down from a previous range of $12.10 to $12.30 vs estimated of $12.30 per share. 

• Comment: Lululemon reported mixed fiscal 1Q26 results, with revenue rising 4% YoY to US$2.47bn and EPS of US$1.69 narrowly beating expectations, but profitability weakened significantly as net income fell 38% YoY and gross margin contracted 4.1 percentage points to 54.2%. The company cited negative media coverage related to its proxy dispute with founder Chip Wilson, questions surrounding product composition, and several underwhelming product launches that hurt customer traffic and sales momentum, particularly in North America where comparable sales declined 5% for a fifth consecutive quarter. While international markets remained a bright spot with revenue growth of 22%, led by China, management lowered its FY26 guidance, now expecting revenue of US$11.0-11.15bn and EPS of US$10.95-11.15, reflecting weaker-than-expected demand, increased promotional activity, and ongoing tariff-related margin pressures. Looking ahead, Lululemon’s near-term performance is likely to remain challenged as it works to restore brand momentum in North America, improve product innovation, and navigate cost headwinds. However, the appointment of former Nike executive Heidi O’Neill as CEO, continued strength in China and international markets, shortening product lead times, and efforts to refresh assortments could support a gradual recovery, although meaningful improvement may take several quarters as new product initiatives and strategic changes begin to reach consumers. 2Q26 recommended trading range: $100 to $120. Neutral Outlook. 

 

Lululemon Athletica Inc.（LULU) 

 

• 26财年第一季度营收：24.7亿美元，同比+4.2%，超出预期4000万美元 

• 26财年第一季度GAAP每股收益：1.69美元，超出预期0.02美元 

• 26财年第二季度指引：预计销售额在24.5亿至24.8亿美元之间，低于预期的26亿美元；预计每股收益在1.76至1.81美元之间，显著低于预期的2.68美元。 

• 26财年全年指引：将营收展望下调至110亿至111.5亿美元，低于此前11.35亿至11.50亿美元的区间；市场预期为114.8亿美元。同时将EPS指引下调至10.95至11.15美元，低于此前12.10至12.30美元的区间，且低于预估的12.30美元/股。 

• 短评：Lululemon公布26财年第一季度结果好坏参半：营收同比增长4%至24.7亿美元，EPS为1.69美元，勉强略超预期；但盈利能力明显走弱，净利润同比下滑38%，毛利率收缩4.1个百分点至54.2%。公司提到与创始人Chip Wilson的委托书（代理）争议相关的负面媒体报道、围绕产品组成的疑问，以及若干表现不佳的产品发布，导致顾客到店与销售动能受影响，尤其在北美——可比销售额已连续第五个季度下滑5%。国际市场仍相对亮眼，收入增长22%（主要由中国带动），但管理层下调26财年指引，预计营收为110亿至111.5亿美元、EPS为10.95至11.15美元，反映需求低于预期、促销活动增加，以及与关税相关的持续利润率压力。展望未来，Lululemon短期表现可能仍将承压：公司需要在北美恢复品牌动能、提升产品创新，并应对成本端的逆风。不过，随着前Nike高管Heidi O’Neill出任CEO、以及中国和国际市场的持续强势、缩短产品交付周期并推进更新商品结构，可能支持逐步回升；但要看到实质性改善，可能仍需数个季度，因为新的产品举措与战略调整需要逐步传导到消费者端。2Q26建议交易区间：100美元至120美元。中性前景。。 

 

Docusign Inc. (DOCU) 

• 1Q27 Revenue: $820.24M, +8.7% YoY, beat estimates by $5.49M 

• 1Q27 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.09, beat estimates by $0.10 

• 2Q27 Guidance: Expect revenue to be $865M-$869M, non-GAAP gross margin to be between 81.5%-81.7% and non-GAAP operating margin to reach 29.7%-30.2%. 

• FY27 Guidance: Expect revenue to be $3.490B-$3.502B, non-GAAP gross margin to be between 81.5%-82.0%, non-GAAP operating margin to reach 30.5%-31.0% for fiscal 2027, an increase of 0.5% at the midpoint versus prior guidance and for ARR, YoY growth rate range will be 8.25%-8.75%. 

• Comment: DocuSign delivered strong first quarter results, with revenue rising 9% YoY to US$830mn, operating margins expanding to 32%, and free cash flow margins reaching 35%, while repurchasing a record US$318mn shares. The company’s AI-powered Intelligent Agreement Management (IAM) platform continues to gain traction, with over 40,000 customers now using IAM and contributing 12.6% of total ARR, up from 10.8% in the prior quarter. Management highlighted accelerating enterprise adoption, improving retention metrics, growing large-customer momentum, and a rapidly expanding ecosystem of AI-driven workflows and integrations across legal, procurement, HR, sales, and payments. Looking ahead, DocuSign expects fiscal 2027 ARR growth to accelerate to 8.25%-8.75%, with IAM projected to reach approximately 18% of total ARR and exceed US$600mn in ARR by year-end. Supported by its vast agreement dataset, expanding AI capabilities, growing enterprise penetration, and increasing workflow automation opportunities, the company is positioning IAM as the central agreement platform for enterprises, creating a potential long-term growth driver beyond its traditional e-signature business while continuing to deliver strong profitability and cash generation. 2Q27 recommended trading range: $45 to $55. Neutral Outlook. 

 

DocuSign Inc.（DOCU) 

 

• 27财年第一季度营收：8.2024亿美元，同比+8.7%，超出预期549万美元 

• 27财年第一季度Non-GAAP每股收益：1.09美元，超出预期0.10美元 

• 27财年第二季度指引：预计营收为8.65亿至8.69亿美元；预计Non-GAAP毛利率在81.5%至81.7%之间；预计Non-GAAP经营利润率达到29.7%至30.2%。 

• 27财年全年指引：预计营收为34.90亿至35.02亿美元；预计Non-GAAP毛利率在81.5%至82.0%之间；预计27财年Non-GAAP经营利润率达到30.5%至31.0%。相较此前指引，中值上调0.5%；同时对ARR（年度经常性收入）YoY增速区间为8.25%至8.75%。 

• 短评：DocuSign公布强劲的27财年第一季度业绩：营收同比增长9%至8.30亿美元，经营利润率扩张至32%，自由现金流利润率达到35%；公司还回购了创纪录的3.18亿美元股票。其AI驱动的“智能协议管理”（IAM）平台持续获得市场认可：目前已有超过4万名客户使用IAM，并贡献总ARR的12.6%，高于上一季度的10.8%。管理层强调企业采用速度加快、留存指标改善、大客户动能增长，以及AI驱动工作流与集成生态系统快速扩张，覆盖法律、采购、人力资源、销售与支付等环节。展望未来，公司预计27财年ARR增速将加速至8.25%至8.75%，并预计IAM占总ARR比重约为18%，年末ARR预计超过6亿美元。凭借庞大的协议数据集、持续增强的AI能力、不断提升的企业渗透以及更多工作流自动化机会，公司正在把IAM定位为企业“协议中心平台”。这使其在传统电子签名业务之外具备长期增长潜力，同时公司也继续保持强劲的盈利能力与现金创造。2Q27建议交易区间：45美元至55美元。中性前景。 

 

Samsara Inc. (IOT) 

• 1Q27 Revenue: $478.8M, +30.55% YoY, beat estimates by $23.63M 

• 1Q27 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.17, beat estimates by $0.04 

• 2Q27 Guidance: Expect revenue to be between $482M and $484M, non-GAAP operating margin to be 18%, non-GAAP EPS to be between $0.15 and $0.16, and GAAP to be profitable for Q2. 

• FY27 Guidance: Expect revenue to be between $2.005B and $2.013B, non-GAAP operating margin to be 20%, non-GAAP EPS to be between $0.70 and $0.72, and GAAP to be profitable for full year 2027. 

• Comment: Samsara reported a strong start to FY27, with annual recurring revenue (ARR) approaching US$2.0bn, up 30% YoY, and revenue rising 31% YoY to US$479mn, while achieving its third consecutive quarter of GAAP profitability. Growth was driven by strong enterprise adoption, with ARR from customers spending over US$100,000 annually increasing 37% YoY to US$1.2bn and ARR from customers spending over US$1mn growing 62% YoY. The company continued to benefit from rising demand across infrastructure, construction, transportation, utilities and public sector customers, while emerging products such as Connected Asset Maintenance, AI-powered safety solutions, Waste Intelligence, and Ground Intelligence contributed more than 20% of net new contract value for a second consecutive quarter. Looking ahead, management expects FY27 revenue of US$2.01bn and continued GAAP profitability, supported by accelerating adoption of AI and IoT solutions across asset-heavy industries, growing penetration of large enterprise customers, increasing multi-product adoption, and long-term tailwinds from global infrastructure investment and the digitisation of physical operations. 2Q27 recommended trading range: $32 to $40. Neutral Outlook. 

 

Samsara Inc.（IOT) 

 

• 27财年第一季度营收：4.788亿美元，同比+30.55%，超出预期2363万美元 

• 27财年第一季度Non-GAAP每股收益：0.17美元，超出预期0.04美元 

• 27财年第二季度指引：预计营收在4.82亿至4.84亿美元之间；预计Non-GAAP经营利润率为18%；预计Non-GAAP每股收益在0.15至0.16美元之间；并预计2Q的GAAP口径将实现盈利。 

• 27财年全年指引：预计营收在20.05亿至20.13亿美元之间；预计Non-GAAP经营利润率为20%；预计Non-GAAP每股收益在0.70至0.72美元之间；并预计27财年全年GAAP口径将实现盈利。 

• 短评：Samsara以强劲的方式开启27财年：年度经常性收入（ARR）接近20亿美元，同比增长30%；营收同比增长31%至4.79亿美元，并实现连续第三个季度的GAAP盈利。增长主要由企业端采用推动：来自年支出超过10万美元客户的ARR同比增长37%至12亿美元；来自年支出超过100万美元客户的ARR同比增长62%。该公司继续受益于基础设施、建筑、交通运输、公用事业和公共部门客户不断增长的需求，而互联资产维护、人工智能驱动的安全解决方案、废物智能和地面智能等新兴产品连续第二个季度贡献了超过 20% 的净新合同价值。展望未来，管理层预计27财年营收约为20.1亿美元，并将继续保持GAAP盈利；支撑因素包括：AI与IoT解决方案在资产密集型行业的采用加速、大型企业客户渗透率提升、多产品采用增加，以及来自全球基础设施投资与实体运营数字化的长期顺风。2Q27建议交易区间：32美元至40美元。中性前景。