Technical Analysis: 4 November 2026

Shopify Inc. (SHOP) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: Revenue US$3.742bn versus US$2.844bn, +31.6% YoY; broadly in line with approximately US$3.74bn consensus. GMV increased 29.5% to US$119.145bn; merchant-solutions revenue grew 35.5% to US$2.906bn. Subscription revenue US$836m versus US$699m, +19.6%; monthly recurring revenue US$230m versus US$193m, +19.2%. 

• 3Q26 EPS: Non-GAAP diluted EPS US$0.49 versus US$0.34, +44.1%; beat US$0.46 consensus by US$0.03. GAAP EPS US$0.36 versus US$0.20. Adjustments exclude stock compensation, investment valuations and related tax items. 

• 4Q26 Guidance: Revenue growth in the low thirties; gross-profit growth in the high twenties; operating expenses 29–30% of revenue; stock compensation US$155m. Free-cash-flow margin consistent with Q4 2025. No EPS guidance provided. 

• FY26 Guidance: No standalone full-year revenue or EPS guidance provided; management continues to guide quarterly. No annual numerical earnings range was introduced. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: No dividend or new buyback authorisation announced. Q3 repurchases US$543m; US$2.524bn remained authorised. Operating cash flow US$818m; free cash flow US$816m, a 22% margin. Cash and marketable securities totalled US$4.727bn. 

• Comment: Shopify’s merchant activity remains strong, but a demanding valuation and rising investment keep our outlook neutral. Payments adoption, enterprise customers and international expansion support growth beyond small online merchants. Operating profit improved substantially, yet the cash-margin increase was not entirely structural. Management attributed part of the improvement to marketing tests, tax-receivable timing and an accounting change for merchant cash advances; these benefits should not be extrapolated. Stock compensation also remains an economic cost despite its exclusion from adjusted EPS. AI commerce could strengthen distribution, although current volumes are small and hosting costs are already increasing. Shares closed at US$142.57 on 3 November, down 8.74%. The decline reduces expectations, but valuation still requires sustained rapid growth and margin discipline. Watch holiday GMV, subscription growth, payments penetration, credit losses and the return on marketing and infrastructure spending. Consistent cash generation after temporary benefits fade would improve confidence, while weaker merchant demand would challenge the premium. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$125–165. Neutral Outlook. 

Shopify (SHOP) 

• 2026财年第三季度营收：收入37.42亿美元，去年28.44亿美元，同比增长31.6%；大致符合约37.4亿美元预期。商品交易总额增长29.5%至1,191.45亿美元；商家解决方案收入增长35.5%至29.06亿美元。 订阅收入8.36亿美元，去年6.99亿美元，增长19.6%；月度经常性收入2.30亿美元，去年1.93亿美元，增长19.2%。 

• 2026财年第三季度每股收益：非GAAP摊薄每股盈利0.49美元，去年0.34美元，增长44.1%；较0.46美元预期高0.03美元。GAAP每股盈利0.36美元，去年0.20美元。调整剔除股权薪酬、投资估值及相关税项。 

• 2026财年第四季度指引：收入增长百分之三十出头；毛利润增长百分之二十后段；经营费用占收入29–30%；股权薪酬1.55亿美元。自由现金流率与2025年第四季度一致。未提供每股盈利指引。 

• 2026财年指引：公司未提供独立全年收入或每股盈利指引，管理层继续按季度提供展望，未引入全年量化盈利区间。 

• 股息与回购：未宣布股息或新增回购授权。第三季度回购5.43亿美元，剩余授权25.24亿美元。经营现金流8.18亿美元；自由现金流8.16亿美元，占收入22%。 现金及有价证券合计47.27亿美元。 

• 短评：Shopify商家活动仍强劲，但较高估值及投资增加使我们维持中性。支付采用、企业客户及国际扩张支持增长超越小型网店。经营利润明显改善，惟现金流率提升并非全部来自结构性因素。管理层将部分改善归因于营销测试、税项应收款时点及商家现金预支会计变更，这些效益不宜持续外推。股权薪酬虽然在经调整每股盈利中剔除，仍属经济成本。AI商业或可强化分销渠道，但当前交易规模较小，托管成本已在增加。股价于11月3日收报142.57美元，下跌8.74%。跌幅降低市场预期，但估值仍要求持续快速增长及利润率纪律。关注假日交易额、订阅增长、支付渗透率、信贷损失及营销与基础设施投资回报。暂时性效益消退后现金流仍稳定，将增强信心；商家需求转弱则会挑战估值溢价。 2026年第四季度建议交易区间：125–165美元。中性展望。 

Pfizer Inc. (PFE) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: Revenue US$16.583bn versus US$16.654bn, -0.4% YoY; approximately US$703m above US$15.88bn consensus. Excluding COVID products, operational revenue grew 7%; launched and acquired products grew 32% operationally. 

• 3Q26 EPS: Adjusted diluted EPS US$0.87 versus US$0.87, unchanged; beat US$0.73 consensus by US$0.14. GAAP EPS US$0.56 versus US$0.62. A US$650m Innovent acquired-R&D charge reduced adjusted EPS by approximately US$0.10. 

• 4Q26 Guidance: No standalone Q4 revenue or EPS guidance provided. Most annual Comirnaty revenue is expected in Q4, consistent with vaccination season; Paxlovid demand remains infection-dependent. 

• FY26 Guidance: Revenue raised to US$62–64bn from US$60.5–62.5bn. Adjusted diluted EPS raised and narrowed to US$2.95–3.05 from US$2.80–3.00. Adjusted R&D expenses increased to US$10.8–11.8bn from US$10.5–11.5bn. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: Quarterly dividend US$0.43/share, payable 7 December, record date 6 November. No repurchases year to date or assumed in guidance; US$3.3bn remains authorised. Nine-month operating cash flow US$8.825bn; dividends paid US$7.347bn. Nine-month capital expenditure US$1.542bn. Adjusted quarterly tax rate 14.0% versus 7.9% a year earlier. 

• Comment: Pfizer’s non-COVID portfolio is improving, but its transition still warrants a neutral outlook. New oncology, migraine and other launched medicines are offsetting declining pandemic-product demand and support the higher annual outlook. Flat adjusted EPS masks both stronger commercial execution and the Innovent licensing charge, while amortisation and other exclusions keep adjusted profit materially above GAAP earnings. The licensing payment funds potential future products rather than proving recurring profitability. Cash generation improved, although capital expenditure and dividends absorb most operating inflows, leaving limited flexibility for simultaneous acquisitions and deleveraging. Shares closed at US$30.00 on 3 November, down 2.18%. Valuation and the dividend offer support, but the shares require clearer evidence that pipeline growth can replace revenue exposed to patent expiries. Watch oncology uptake, vaccine demand, obesity-trial execution, reimbursement and debt reduction. Sustained non-COVID growth with stronger cash coverage would support a more positive view; clinical or commercial setbacks would reinforce the discount. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$27–34. Neutral Outlook. 

辉瑞 (PFE) 

• 2026财年第三季度营收：收入165.83亿美元，去年166.54亿美元，同比下降0.4%；较158.8亿美元预期高约7.03亿美元。剔除新冠产品后，收入按经营口径增长7%；已上市及收购产品按经营口径增长32%。 

• 2026财年第三季度每股收益：经调整摊薄每股盈利0.87美元，去年0.87美元，持平；较0.73美元预期高0.14美元。GAAP每股盈利0.56美元，去年0.62美元。信达生物6.5亿美元收购研发费用使经调整每股盈利减少约0.10美元。 

• 2026财年第四季度指引：未提供独立第四季度收入或每股盈利指引。年度Comirnaty收入大部分预计于第四季度确认，符合疫苗接种季节；Paxlovid需求仍取决于感染情况。 

• 2026财年指引：收入指引由605–625亿美元升至620–640亿美元。经调整摊薄每股盈利由2.80–3.00美元上调并收窄至2.95–3.05美元。经调整研发费用由105–115亿美元升至108–118亿美元。 

• 股息与回购：季度股息每股0.43美元，12月7日支付，登记日11月6日。年初至今未回购，指引亦不假设回购；剩余授权33亿美元。首九个月经营现金流88.25亿美元，支付股息73.47亿美元。 首九个月资本开支15.42亿美元。季度经调整税率14.0%，去年同期7.9%。 

• 短评：辉瑞非新冠产品组合改善，但转型仍宜维持中性。新肿瘤、偏头痛及其他已上市药品抵消疫情产品需求下降，支持上调全年展望。经调整每股盈利持平，掩盖了商业执行改善及信达生物授权费用的共同影响；摊销及其他剔除项目使经调整利润明显高于GAAP盈利。授权付款资助潜在未来产品，并不证明经常性盈利已改善。现金创造增强，但资本开支及股息吸收大部分经营现金流，同时收购及去杠杆的空间有限。股价于11月3日收报30.00美元，下跌2.18%。估值及股息形成支持，但仍需更明确证据证明管线增长可替代面临专利到期的收入。关注肿瘤药采用、疫苗需求、肥胖症试验执行、支付政策及债务下降。非新冠增长持续并伴随现金覆盖增强，将支持更正面观点；临床或商业受挫则会强化估值折让。 2026年第四季度建议交易区间：27–34美元。中性展望。 

Eaton Corporation plc (ETN) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: Revenue US$8.947bn versus US$6.988bn, +28.0% YoY; approximately US$417m above US$8.53bn consensus. Organic sales +19%, acquisitions +8%, currency +1%; electrical backlog +46%. Electrical Americas organic sales increased 22%, with a 29.8% operating margin; Electrical Global organic sales increased 27%, supplemented by Boyd Thermal. 

• 3Q26 EPS: Adjusted diluted EPS US$3.68 versus US$3.07, +19.9%; beat US$3.55 consensus by US$0.13. GAAP diluted EPS US$2.77 versus US$2.59, +6.9%. Adjustments include US$0.62 amortisation and US$0.30 acquisition/divestiture charges, offset by US$0.01 restructuring income. 

• 4Q26 Guidance: Organic sales growth 13–15%; adjusted EPS US$4.05–4.15; GAAP EPS US$3.28–3.38; segment margin 25.4–25.8%. No revenue-dollar range provided. 

• FY26 Guidance: Organic growth raised to 13–15% from 11–13%; adjusted EPS raised to US$13.70–13.80 from US$13.40–13.60. GAAP EPS US$10.39–10.49 versus US$10.36–10.56 previously. Segment margin 24.1–24.5%; no revenue-dollar range. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: Dividend US$1.10, payable 27 November; record date 10 November. No new buyback announced in the release. Operating cash flow US$1.310bn; free cash flow US$1.034bn. 

• Comment: Eaton’s results demonstrate that additional capacity is translating into shipments while maintaining high margins, especially in Electrical Americas. Broad electrical orders and an expanding backlog support continued growth beyond the quarter, while thermal-management capabilities add exposure to data-centre demand. However, reported sales growth also includes acquisitions, and the substantial gap between GAAP and adjusted earnings reflects the cost of building that portfolio. Those charges do not invalidate the operating improvement, but recurring amortisation should remain visible when judging returns on acquisition spending. Strong free cash flow provides a firmer quality signal than the adjusted EPS beat alone. Shares closed at US$391.70 on 3 November, up 7.00%. A Positive outlook reflects compelling demand and improving execution, although the rally leaves less protection against delayed customer projects or integration setbacks. Watch backlog conversion, new-capacity utilisation, electrical margins, acquisition returns and the planned Mobility separation. Sustained cash conversion will determine whether the current growth premium remains justified as infrastructure investment scales. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$360–440. Positive Outlook. 

伊顿 (ETN) 

• 2026财年第三季度营收：营收89.47亿美元，上年同期69.88亿美元，同比增长28.0%；较市场预期85.3亿美元高约4.17亿美元。有机销售增长19%，收购贡献8%，汇率贡献1%；电气业务积压订单增长46%。 美洲电气有机销售增长22%，营业利润率29.8%；全球电气有机销售增长27%，另获Boyd Thermal贡献。 

• 2026财年第三季度每股收益：调整后摊薄每股收益3.68美元，上年同期3.07美元，增长19.9%；较市场预期3.55美元高0.13美元。GAAP摊薄每股收益2.77美元，上年同期2.59美元，增长6.9%。调整项目包括0.62美元摊销、0.30美元收购及出售费用，并由0.01美元重组收益部分抵销。 

• 2026财年第四季度指引：有机销售增长13%–15%；调整后每股收益4.05–4.15美元；GAAP每股收益3.28–3.38美元；分部利润率25.4%–25.8%。未提供营收金额区间。 

• 2026财年指引：有机增长由11%–13%上调至13%–15%；调整后每股收益由13.40–13.60美元上调至13.70–13.80美元。GAAP每股收益10.39–10.49美元，原指引10.36–10.56美元。分部利润率24.1%–24.5%；未提供营收金额区间。 

• 股息与回购：每股派息1.10美元，11月27日支付，11月10日登记。业绩公告未宣布新回购。经营现金流13.10亿美元；自由现金流10.34亿美元。 

• 短评：Eaton业绩显示新增产能正转化为出货，并维持较高利润率，尤其是美洲电气业务。广泛电气订单需求和积压订单扩张支持后续增长，热管理能力亦增加对数据中心需求的敞口。不过，报告销售增长也包含收购贡献，而GAAP与调整后盈利的较大差距反映建立业务组合的成本。这些费用不否定经营改善，但评估收购投入回报时，仍应考虑持续摊销。强劲自由现金流比单看调整后每股收益超预期更能支持盈利质量。股价11月3日收盘报391.70美元，上涨7.00%。正面展望反映需求吸引力及执行改善，但股价上涨降低了对客户项目延误或整合受挫的缓冲。关注积压订单转化、新产能利用率、电气利润率、收购回报及计划中的Mobility分拆。随着基础设施投资扩大，持续现金转化将决定当前增长溢价能否获得支持。 2026年第四季度建议交易区间：360–440美元。正面展望。 

DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. (DOCN) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: Revenue US$321.192m versus US$229.634m, +39.9% YoY; beat US$306.66m consensus by US$14.53m. AI customer ARR US$376m, +288%; total ARR US$1.285bn. Remaining performance obligations US$800m versus US$894m in Q2; approximately US$345m is expected to be recognised within twelve months. 

• 3Q26 EPS: Non-GAAP diluted EPS US$0.45 versus US$0.54, −16.7%; beat US$0.32 consensus by US$0.13. GAAP diluted loss US$0.37 versus US$1.51 profit; net loss included US$57.1m induced-conversion expense. Adjusted operating margin fell to 23% from 30%. 

• 4Q26 Guidance: Revenue US$348–351m, +44–45%; non-GAAP diluted EPS US$0.30–0.32; adjusted EBITDA margin 42–43%. 

• FY26 Guidance: Revenue raised to US$1.208–1.211bn from US$1.170–1.180bn; non-GAAP diluted EPS raised to US$1.60–1.62 from US$1.35–1.40. Adjusted free-cash-flow margin 20–22% versus 11–13% previously. Management expects at least 60% revenue growth in 2027. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: No dividend or new common-share buyback announced. Cash US$666m; adjusted quarterly free cash flow US$130.2m. US$785m equipment lease facility secured; a potential US$1bn at-the-market equity programme was established. 

• Comment: DigitalOcean’s acceleration is credible at the revenue level: AI adoption is expanding into core cloud services, and larger customers are contributing more spending. The earnings beat, however, should not obscure weaker per-share economics. Adjusted EPS declined despite substantial sales growth, while depreciation and rising operating expenses compressed operating margins. The GAAP loss also reflects a convertible-note conversion charge; last year benefited from tax and debt-related gains, making the headline comparison unusually distorted. Cash generation improved, but adjusted free cash flow excludes equipment acquired through financing and finance leases, so it overstates the cash available after funding the full capacity expansion. The new equity programme adds potential dilution alongside those commitments. Shares closed at US$90.50 on 3 November, up 0.79%. A Neutral outlook reflects demanding valuation against a promising but capital-intensive growth trajectory. Watch realised consumption, customer retention, gross margins, financed equipment additions and the conversion of contracted commitments into recurring revenue and durable earnings. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$70–110. Neutral Outlook. 

DigitalOcean (DOCN) 

• 2026财年第三季度营收：营收3.21192亿美元，上年同期2.29634亿美元，同比增长39.9%；较市场预期3.0666亿美元高1,453万美元。AI客户ARR为3.76亿美元，增长288%；总ARR为12.85亿美元。 剩余履约义务8亿美元，第二季度8.94亿美元；其中约3.45亿美元预计于十二个月内确认。 

• 2026财年第三季度每股收益：非GAAP摊薄每股收益0.45美元，上年同期0.54美元，同比下降16.7%；较市场预期0.32美元高0.13美元。GAAP摊薄每股亏损0.37美元，上年同期盈利1.51美元；净亏损包含5,710万美元诱导转换费用。调整后营业利润率由30%降至23%。 

• 2026财年第四季度指引：营收3.48亿–3.51亿美元，增长44%–45%；非GAAP摊薄每股收益0.30–0.32美元；调整后EBITDA利润率42%–43%。 

• 2026财年指引：营收由11.70亿–11.80亿美元上调至12.08亿–12.11亿美元；非GAAP摊薄每股收益由1.35–1.40美元上调至1.60–1.62美元。调整后自由现金流利润率由11%–13%上调至20%–22%。管理层预计2027年营收增长至少60%。 

• 股息与回购：未宣布派息或新的普通股回购。现金6.66亿美元；单季调整后自由现金流1.302亿美元。已取得7.85亿美元设备租赁融资额度，并设立最高10亿美元的潜在市价股票发行计划。 

• 短评：DigitalOcean的营收加速具有实质基础：AI客户采用更多核心云服务，大客户支出贡献增加。不过，盈利超预期不应掩盖每股经济效益转弱。尽管销售大幅增长，调整后每股收益仍下降，折旧及经营费用上升压缩营业利润率。GAAP亏损亦包含可转债诱导转换费用；上年则受惠于税务及债务相关收益，使表面同比比较明显失真。现金创造改善，但调整后自由现金流剔除融资采购设备及融资租赁，因此高于承担全部扩产资金需求后的可用现金。新的股票发行计划在上述承诺之外增加潜在摊薄。股价11月3日收盘报90.50美元，上涨0.79%。中性展望反映估值要求较高，而增长前景虽具吸引力，却需要大量资本投入。关注实际使用量、客户留存、毛利率、融资购置设备，以及合同承诺能否转化为经常性收入和持续盈利。 2026年第四季度建议交易区间：70–110美元。中性展望。 

Energy Transfer LP (ET) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: Revenue US$37.103bn versus US$19.954bn, +85.9% YoY; beat approximately US$32.43bn consensus by US$4.67bn. Consolidation of Sunoco acquisitions materially increased reported sales. Intrastate transportation volumes increased 14%, gathered volumes 6%, NGL transportation 6% and NGL exports 9%; these provide a clearer measure of underlying utilisation. 

• 3Q26 EPS: GAAP diluted earnings per unit US$0.33 versus US$0.28, +17.9%; missed US$0.41 consensus by US$0.08. Adjusted EBITDA US$5.03bn versus US$3.84bn, +31%; adjusted distributable cash flow US$2.52bn versus US$1.90bn, +33%. 

• 4Q26 Guidance: No standalone quarterly revenue or earnings-per-unit guidance. Approximately US$285m of previously disputed gas purchases is expected to benefit fourth-quarter results. 

• FY26 Guidance: Adjusted EBITDA raised to US$19.7–19.9bn from US$18.8–19.1bn, excluding Vaquero benefits. Organic growth capital US$5.4–5.6bn, excluding SUN and USAC, versus US$5.6–5.9bn previously. No revenue or earnings-per-unit guidance. Preliminary 2027 growth spending approximately US$7bn. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: Quarterly distribution US$0.3425 per unit, over 3% higher YoY; twentieth consecutive increase. No new buyback announced. Quarterly growth capital US$1.30bn and maintenance capital US$284m; available revolving borrowing capacity US$4.41bn. 

• Comment: Energy Transfer’s stronger volumes and integrated network support a constructive operating outlook, particularly in natural gas gathering, transportation and NGL exports. The headline revenue increase is less informative than cash generation because acquisition consolidation and commodity prices inflate reported turnover. Adjusted distributable cash flow grew strongly, but the EBITDA upgrade includes a fourth-quarter disputed-purchase benefit, while favourable marketing conditions carry future derivative offsets. Those items should not be treated as fully recurring growth. Distribution coverage must also be assessed alongside an expanding investment programme: distributable cash flow deducts maintenance spending but does not fund growth capital automatically. The Vaquero purchase and higher expected 2027 spending increase execution and financing demands. Units closed at US$20.16 on 3 November, down 0.88%. A Positive outlook reflects attractive income and improving infrastructure utilisation, tempered by leverage and project risk. Watch contracted project returns, commissioning dates, acquisition integration, the reversal of marketing gains and cash retained after distributions and total capital spending. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$18–24. Positive Outlook. 

能源转移 (ET) 

• 2026财年第三季度营收：营收371.03亿美元，上年同期199.54亿美元，同比增长85.9%；较市场预期约324.3亿美元高46.7亿美元。Sunoco收购业务并表显著推高报告销售额。 州内运输量增长14%、集气量增长6%、NGL运输量增长6%、NGL出口量增长9%，更清晰反映基础资产利用率。 

• 2026财年第三季度每股收益：GAAP摊薄每单位收益0.33美元，上年同期0.28美元，增长17.9%；较市场预期0.41美元低0.08美元。调整后EBITDA为50.3亿美元，上年同期38.4亿美元，增长31%；调整后可分派现金流25.2亿美元，上年同期19.0亿美元，增长33%。 

• 2026财年第四季度指引：未提供独立季度营收或每单位收益指引。预计第四季度确认约2.85亿美元此前存在争议的天然气采购相关收益。 

• 2026财年指引：调整后EBITDA由188亿–191亿美元上调至197亿–199亿美元，不包含Vaquero贡献。剔除SUN及USAC的有机增长资本支出由56亿–59亿美元调至54亿–56亿美元。未提供营收或每单位收益指引。2027年初步增长支出预期约70亿美元。 

• 股息与回购：季度每单位分派0.3425美元，同比增长超过3%，连续第20次上调。未宣布新回购。单季增长资本支出13.0亿美元、维护资本支出2.84亿美元；循环信贷可用额度44.1亿美元。 

• 短评：Energy Transfer的业务量增长及一体化网络支持较积极经营前景，尤其是天然气集输、运输及NGL出口。营收大增不如现金创造具有参考价值，因为收购并表及商品价格会推高报告收入。调整后可分派现金流强劲增长，但EBITDA上调包含第四季度争议采购相关收益，而有利营销环境带来的收益部分将被未来衍生品损失抵销，不宜全部视为持续增长。分派覆盖也需结合扩大的投资计划评估：可分派现金流扣除维护支出，却不代表增长资本支出已获资金覆盖。收购Vaquero及2027年预期增加的支出提高执行和融资要求。单位价格11月3日收盘报20.16美元，下跌0.88%。正面展望反映收益分派吸引力及基础设施利用率改善，同时考虑杠杆与项目风险。关注长期合同项目回报、投产时间、收购整合、营销收益回转，以及扣除分派及全部资本支出后保留的现金。 2026年第四季度建议交易区间：18–24美元。正面展望。 

Apollo Global Management, Inc. (APO) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: GAAP revenue US$4.739bn versus US$9.823bn, −51.8% YoY; approximately US$1.05bn below US$5.79bn consensus. Management fees increased 18% to US$1.017bn; fee-related earnings increased 23% to US$802m. Total AUM increased 18% to US$1.074tn; fee-generating AUM US$880bn. Quarterly inflows US$53bn; origination US$114bn. 

• 3Q26 EPS: Adjusted net income per share US$2.07 versus US$2.17, −4.6%; missed US$2.20 consensus by US$0.13. Excluding notable items, US$2.15 versus US$2.14. GAAP diluted loss US$1.78 versus US$2.78 profit, reflecting retirement-investment marks. 

• 4Q26 Guidance: No quarterly total-revenue or EPS guidance. Management expects approximately US$1bn spread-related earnings, excluding notable items and normalising alternative returns to its 11% long-term assumption. 

• FY26 Guidance: Maintains at least 20% fee-related earnings growth and approximately 10% normalised spread-related earnings growth. No total-revenue or EPS range provided. For 2027, management expects at least 20% fee-related earnings growth and at least 15% management-fee growth. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: Dividend US$0.5625, payable 30 November; record date 18 November. Quarterly buybacks US$143m, including US$75m opportunistic purchases; US$2.89bn authorisation remaining. 

• Comment: Apollo’s fee franchise remains stronger than the headline earnings miss suggests. Management fees and capital-solutions activity supported record fee-related earnings, while substantial inflows and origination provide a credible pipeline for further expansion. The insurance business complicates interpretation: market-value changes depressed GAAP revenue and generated a loss, while actuarial assumption revisions reduced reported spread earnings. Excluding that review, adjusted EPS was broadly flat, rather than delivering the growth implied by asset gathering alone. Normalised guidance also assumes long-term alternative returns that are not guaranteed, so it should not be confused with earned cash returns. Shares closed at US$113.55 on 3 November, down 4.95%. A Positive outlook reflects an attractive valuation relative to the expanding fee franchise, with meaningful sensitivity to credit and insurance outcomes. Watch fee-paying asset conversion, funding costs, policyholder behaviour, realised alternative returns and the investment programme’s effect on margins. Origination quality matters more than volume if weaker underwriting subsequently erodes spread income or raises capital requirements. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$105–135. Positive Outlook. 

阿波罗全球管理 (APO) 

• 2026财年第三季度营收：GAAP营收47.39亿美元，上年同期98.23亿美元，同比下降51.8%；较市场预期57.9亿美元低约10.5亿美元。管理费增长18%至10.17亿美元；费用相关盈利增长23%至8.02亿美元。 总管理资产增长18%至1.074万亿美元；收费管理资产8,800亿美元。单季资金流入530亿美元，资产发起规模1,140亿美元。 

• 2026财年第三季度每股收益：调整后每股净收益2.07美元，上年同期2.17美元，下降4.6%；较市场预期2.20美元低0.13美元。剔除特殊项目后为2.15美元，上年同期2.14美元。GAAP摊薄每股亏损1.78美元，上年同期盈利2.78美元，受退休服务投资估值变动影响。 

• 2026财年第四季度指引：未提供季度总营收或每股收益指引。管理层预计利差相关盈利约10亿美元，该口径剔除特殊项目，并按11%的长期替代资产回报假设正常化。 

• 2026财年指引：维持费用相关盈利增长至少20%、正常化利差相关盈利增长约10%的预期。未提供总营收或每股收益区间。2027年预计费用相关盈利增长至少20%、管理费增长至少15%。 

• 股息与回购：每股派息0.5625美元，11月30日支付，11月18日登记。单季回购1.43亿美元，其中7,500万美元为机会性回购；剩余授权28.9亿美元。 

• 短评：Apollo费用业务表现强于表面盈利逊预期所显示的情况。管理费及资本解决方案业务支持费用相关盈利创纪录，强劲资金流入和资产发起活动亦为进一步扩张提供基础。保险业务增加解读难度：市值变化压低GAAP营收并导致亏损，精算假设调整则拖累报告利差盈利。剔除该评估影响后，调整后每股收益基本持平，并未呈现单看资产募集规模所暗示的增长。正常化指引亦依赖不保证实现的长期替代资产回报，不能等同已赚取的现金回报。股价11月3日收盘报113.55美元，下跌4.95%。正面展望反映估值相对于扩张中的费用业务具吸引力，但仍明显受信贷及保险结果影响。关注资产转化为收费资产的进度、资金成本、保户行为、实际替代资产回报，以及投资计划对利润率的影响。若承保质量转弱最终侵蚀利差或提高资本要求，资产发起质量比规模更重要。 2026年第四季度建议交易区间：105–135美元。正面展望。 

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: Revenue US$13.377bn versus US$9.246bn, +44.7% YoY; approximately US$287m above US$13.09bn consensus. Data Center revenue US$8.5bn, +97%; Client and Gaming US$3.7bn, −8%; Embedded US$1.1bn, +29%. 

• 3Q26 EPS: Non-GAAP diluted EPS US$2.09 versus US$1.20, +74.2%; beat US$1.94 consensus by US$0.15. GAAP EPS US$1.46 versus US$0.75, affected by a US$1.097bn warrant remeasurement charge and tax effects. Non-GAAP operating margin 29%. 

• 4Q26 Guidance: Revenue US$17bn, ±3%, or US$16.49–17.51bn; non-GAAP gross margin approximately 55%. No EPS guidance provided. Data Center revenue expected to grow approximately 50% sequentially. 

• FY26 Guidance: The company did not provide full-year 2026 revenue or EPS guidance. Management separately expects more than 80% revenue growth in 2027, with server revenue approximately doubling. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: No dividend or new buyback announced; Q3 programme repurchases were zero. Cash and short-term investments US$15.776bn. Operating cash flow US$1.202bn; free cash flow US$554m versus US$1.530bn a year earlier. 

• Comment: AMD’s accelerated data-center ramp strengthens the growth outlook and supports a positive view, although cash conversion and valuation remain demanding. EPYC and Instinct are expanding together, while Helios deployments create a larger systems opportunity. The December revenue outlook points to further acceleration, but lower guided gross margin shows that growth carries product-mix and capacity costs. GAAP earnings include volatile customer-warrant accounting; adjusted EPS also excludes stock compensation and acquisition amortisation, so operating profit and cash generation deserve equal attention. Inventory rose sharply to support demand, and free cash flow fell despite record earnings. That spending can enable future shipments, but it requires timely customer deployment and collections. Shares traded at US$508.20 post-market on 3 November, up 5.02% from the close. The rebound already recognises stronger execution. Watch packaging and memory supply, rack acceptance, inventory conversion, customer concentration and software adoption. Sustained profitable growth beyond initial platform launches would reinforce the investment case. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$450–600. Positive Outlook. 

超微半导体 (AMD) 

• 2026财年第三季度营收：营收133.77亿美元，去年92.46亿美元，同比增长44.7%；较130.9亿美元预期高约2.87亿美元。数据中心收入85亿美元，增长97%；客户端及游戏37亿美元，下降8%；嵌入式11亿美元，增长29%。 

• 2026财年第三季度每股收益：非GAAP摊薄每股盈利2.09美元，去年1.20美元，增长74.2%；较1.94美元预期高0.15美元。GAAP每股盈利1.46美元，去年0.75美元，受10.97亿美元认股权证重估费用及税务影响。非GAAP经营利润率29%。 

• 2026财年第四季度指引：营收170亿美元，上下浮动3%，即164.9亿至175.1亿美元；非GAAP毛利率约55%。公司未提供每股盈利指引。数据中心收入预计环比增长约50%。 

• 2026财年指引：公司未提供2026全年收入或每股盈利指引。管理层另预计2027年收入增长超过80%，服务器收入约翻倍。 

• 股息与回购：未宣布股息或新回购；第三季度计划内回购为零。现金及短期投资157.76亿美元。经营现金流12.02亿美元；自由现金流5.54亿美元，去年同期15.30亿美元。 

• 短评：AMD数据中心加速放量强化增长前景，支持正面观点，但现金转化与估值要求仍高。EPYC及Instinct共同扩张，Helios部署带来更大系统业务机会。十二月季度收入指引显示进一步加速，惟毛利率指引下降，表明增长伴随产品结构及产能成本。GAAP盈利包含波动较大的客户认股权证会计影响；经调整每股盈利亦剔除股权薪酬及收购摊销，因此需同等重视经营利润与现金创造。为支持需求，库存大幅增加，尽管盈利创新高，自由现金流仍下降。相关投入可支持未来出货，但需客户及时部署及回款。股价于11月3日盘后报508.20美元，较收盘上涨5.02%，反弹已反映执行改善。关注封装及存储供应、机架验收、库存转化、客户集中度及软件采用。初期平台推出后若能持续实现有利润的增长，将强化投资逻辑。 2026年第四季度建议交易区间：450–600美元。正面展望。 

Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) 

• 1Q27 Revenue: Preliminary revenue US$19.946bn versus US$5.018bn, +297.5% YoY; approximately US$3.686bn above US$16.26bn consensus. AI solutions represented 71% of sales; approximately US$2.3bn reflected previously delayed deployments. 

• 1Q27 EPS: Non-GAAP diluted EPS US$1.81 versus US$0.35, +417.1%; beat US$1.23 consensus by US$0.58. GAAP EPS US$1.75 versus US$0.26. Non-GAAP gross margin 12.8%, versus 9.5% a year earlier; results remain preliminary pending closing procedures. 

• 2Q27 Guidance: Revenue US$19.5–21.5bn; non-GAAP diluted EPS US$1.66–1.90 and GAAP EPS US$1.59–1.83. Non-GAAP tax rate approximately 21.1%, with 769m diluted shares assumed. 

• FY27 Guidance: Revenue raised to US$72–82bn from US$65–72bn. The company did not provide full-year EPS guidance. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: No common dividend or new buyback announced. Preferred dividends paid US$63.7m. Cash US$6.9bn; bank debt and convertible notes US$8.6bn. Operating cash outflow US$434m and capital expenditure US$47m. 

• Comment: Supermicro’s sales acceleration and higher annual outlook improve the operating case, but a neutral view reflects cash demands and execution uncertainty. The company is capturing larger AI infrastructure projects, and margins improved materially from a year earlier. However, delayed deployments contributed to the quarter, so the full increase should not be treated as a recurring run rate. Gross margin also fell substantially from the unusually strong preceding quarter. Common shareholders must account for preferred dividends, participating-security allocations and eventual dilution when judging EPS. Working capital remains substantial: inventories and receivables increased, and operations consumed cash despite strong reported profit. The preliminary status of the release requires confirmation when closing procedures finish. Shares traded at US$33.65 post-market on 3 November, up 7.20% from the close. Valuation appears restrained, but funding and customer concentration limit confidence. Watch cash collection, customer prepayments, inventory ageing, project acceptance, gross margin and the conversion of higher revenue guidance into sustainable common-shareholder cash returns. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$28–42. Neutral Outlook. 

美超微电脑 (SMCI) 

• 2027财年第一季度营收：初步营收199.46亿美元，去年50.18亿美元，同比增长297.5%；较162.6亿美元预期高约36.86亿美元。AI解决方案占收入71%；约23亿美元来自此前延迟的部署。 

• 2027财年第一季度每股收益：非GAAP摊薄每股盈利1.81美元，去年0.35美元，增长417.1%；较1.23美元预期高0.58美元。GAAP每股盈利1.75美元，去年0.26美元。非GAAP毛利率12.8%，去年9.5%；结账程序尚待完成，业绩仍为初步数字。 

• 2027财年第二季度指引：营收195亿至215亿美元；非GAAP摊薄每股盈利1.66至1.90美元，GAAP每股盈利1.59至1.83美元。非GAAP税率约21.1%，假设摊薄股数7.69亿股。 

• 2027财年指引：收入由650亿至720亿美元上调至720亿至820亿美元。公司未提供全年每股盈利指引。 

• 股息与回购：未宣布普通股股息或新回购。已付优先股股息6,370万美元。现金69亿美元，银行债务及可转债86亿美元。经营现金流出4.34亿美元，资本开支4,700万美元。 

• 短评：美超微收入加速及全年指引上调改善经营逻辑，但现金需求与执行不确定性使我们维持中性。公司获得更大型AI基础设施项目，毛利率较去年显著改善。不过，延迟部署对本季有所贡献，不宜将全部增幅视为可持续收入水平。毛利率亦较异常强劲的上一季度明显下降。评价每股盈利时，普通股股东需考虑优先股股息、参与证券盈利分配及最终摊薄。营运资金需求仍大：库存与应收款增加，尽管报告利润强劲，经营活动仍消耗现金。业绩公告属初步数字，结账完成后仍需确认。股价于11月3日盘后报33.65美元，较收盘上涨7.20%。估值看似克制，惟融资与客户集中度限制信心。关注回款、客户预付款、库存账龄、项目验收、毛利率，以及上调的收入指引能否转化为普通股股东可持续的现金回报。 2026年第四季度建议交易区间：28–42美元。中性展望。 

Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: Revenue US$3.6576bn versus US$2.3083bn, +58.5% YoY; approximately US$327.6m above US$3.33bn consensus. Non-GAAP gross margin 64.0%; operating margin 49.1% versus 48.6%. 

• 3Q26 EPS: Non-GAAP diluted EPS US$1.20 versus restated US$0.77, +55.8%; beat US$1.08 consensus by US$0.12. GAAP EPS US$1.22 versus US$0.67. GAAP profit included US$134.5m strategic-investment gains; non-GAAP profit excludes those gains and stock-compensation tax benefits. 

• 4Q26 Guidance: Revenue US$3.9–4.0bn; non-GAAP diluted EPS US$1.26–1.30, gross margin 63–64% and operating margin 48–49%. 

• FY26 Guidance: Revenue raised to approximately US$13.3bn from US$12.6bn. No full-year EPS guidance provided. Initial 2027 revenue growth outlook 38–40%, or approximately US$18.5bn at midpoint. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: No dividend; no repurchases during the first nine months. US$817.9m remained authorised. Cash and marketable securities US$14.359bn; Q3 operating cash flow approximately US$1.2bn. Inventory US$3.2098bn and purchase commitments US$11.4bn. 

• Comment: Arista’s faster growth and higher outlook support a positive view, with AI networking and enterprise demand providing multiple sources of expansion. The company preserved exceptional operating profitability while investing in new architectures and research. Broader Ethernet adoption across scale-out and distributed AI deployments should extend its addressable opportunity, although new product launches need customer qualification before revenue becomes dependable. Earnings quality remains strong operationally, but GAAP EPS benefited from investment gains and tax items; adjusted operating profit provides a clearer measure of execution. Inventory and supplier commitments increased substantially, placing greater weight on shipment timing and customer acceptance. Deferred revenue can also fluctuate with contractual acceptance provisions, so quarterly changes require context. Shares traded at US$186.00 post-market on 3 November, up 9.47% from the close. The rally recognises the guidance upgrade and leaves valuation sensitive to delivery. Watch hyperscaler spending, gross-margin mix, campus adoption, inventory conversion and whether new AI programmes broaden the customer base. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$175–220. Positive Outlook. 

Arista网络 (ANET) 

• 2026财年第三季度营收：营收36.576亿美元，去年23.083亿美元，同比增长58.5%；较33.3亿美元预期高约3.276亿美元。非GAAP毛利率64.0%；经营利润率49.1%，去年48.6%。 

• 2026财年第三季度每股收益：非GAAP摊薄每股盈利1.20美元，去年重列后0.77美元，增长55.8%；较1.08美元预期高0.12美元。GAAP每股盈利1.22美元，去年0.67美元。GAAP利润包含1.345亿美元战略投资收益；非GAAP利润剔除相关收益及股权薪酬税务优惠。 

• 2026财年第四季度指引：营收39亿至40亿美元；非GAAP摊薄每股盈利1.26至1.30美元、毛利率63%至64%、经营利润率48%至49%。 

• 2026财年指引：收入由126亿美元上调至约133亿美元。公司未提供全年每股盈利指引。2027年初步收入增长指引38%至40%，中点约185亿美元。 

• 股息与回购：不派息；首九个月未回购，剩余回购授权8.179亿美元。现金及有价证券143.59亿美元；第三季度经营现金流约12亿美元。库存32.098亿美元，采购承诺114亿美元。 

• 短评：Arista增长加快及指引上调支持正面观点，AI网络与企业需求提供多重扩张来源。公司在投入新架构及研发的同时，保持出色经营盈利能力。以太网在横向扩展及分布式AI部署中的采用可扩大市场机会，惟新品仍需客户认证，收入才更可靠。经营层面的盈利质量仍强，但GAAP每股盈利受惠于投资收益与税务项目，经调整经营利润更能反映执行。库存与供应商承诺大增，提高出货时点及客户验收的重要性。递延收入亦随合同验收条款波动，因此需要结合背景解读季度变化。股价于11月3日盘后报186.00美元，较收盘上涨9.47%。反弹反映指引上调，估值对交付表现更敏感。关注超大规模客户开支、毛利率结构、园区网络采用、库存转化，以及新AI项目能否拓宽客户基础。 2026年第四季度建议交易区间：175–220美元。正面展望。 

Navitas Semiconductor Corporation (NVTS) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: Revenue US$13.991m versus US$10.112m, +38.4% YoY and +33% sequentially; approximately US$0.49m above US$13.50m consensus. High-power revenue grew over 50% sequentially. 

• 3Q26 EPS: Non-GAAP loss per share US$0.03 versus US$0.05, improving US$0.02; beat US$0.04 loss consensus by US$0.01. GAAP loss US$0.14 versus US$0.09. Adjusted operating loss US$10.9m versus US$11.5m; adjusted gross margin 40.0% versus 38.7%. 

• 4Q26 Guidance: Revenue US$15.5–16.5m; non-GAAP gross margin 39.5–41.5%; operating expenses US$24–26m including Claros. AI infrastructure expected to exceed 40% of sales. The company did not provide EPS guidance. 

• FY26 Guidance: Presentation indicates revenue US$48.6–49.6m, approximately 7% growth at midpoint, versus previous qualitative mid-single-digit growth. High-power revenue expected to grow 125%. The company did not provide full-year EPS guidance. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: No dividend or buyback announced. Quarter-end cash US$531.5m; approximately US$405m after the subsequent US$126m Claros cash payment. Debt-free; no Q3 ATM issuance. 

• Comment: Navitas has returned to revenue growth as its shift toward AI power applications gains traction. Better product mix and scale support gross margin, but the earnings inflection remains distant. Claros broadens voltage regulation capabilities while sharply increasing the operating cost base, so December revenue growth will not automatically narrow operating losses. GAAP gross-margin improvement also reflects lower acquisition amortisation; adjusted earnings exclude substantial compensation and restructuring charges. Investment income cushions adjusted net losses without proving operating breakeven. Cash provides flexibility after the acquisition, although wafer inventory buffers absorb funds and new architectures still require customer qualification. Shares traded at US$8.82 post-market on 3 November, up 3.04% from the close. That response rewards improving demand, but valuation already anticipates substantial commercial adoption. A Neutral outlook balances technology potential against losses and execution risk. Watch backlog conversion, customer concentration, Claros integration, inventory consumption and whether AI revenue scales faster than expenses. Design partnerships alone do not establish durable production revenue. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$7–11. Neutral Outlook. 

纳微半导体 (NVTS) 

• 2026财年第三季度营收：营收1,399.1万美元，上年同期1,011.2万美元，同比增长38.4%，环比增长33%；较市场预期1,350万美元高约49万美元。高功率业务收入环比增长超过50%。 

• 2026财年第三季度每股收益：非GAAP每股亏损0.03美元，上年同期亏损0.05美元，改善0.02美元；较预期亏损0.04美元高0.01美元。GAAP每股亏损0.14美元，上年同期亏损0.09美元。调整后营业亏损1,090万美元，上年同期1,150万美元；调整后毛利率40.0%，上年同期38.7%。 

• 2026财年第四季度指引：营收1,550万至1,650万美元；非GAAP毛利率39.5%至41.5%；含Claros的营业费用2,400万至2,600万美元。AI基础设施预计超过收入40%。公司未提供每股收益指引。 

• 2026财年指引：公司演示材料显示营收4,860万至4,960万美元，中值同比增长约7%，此前为定性的中个位数增长预期。高功率业务收入预计增长125%。公司未提供全年每股收益指引。 

• 股息与回购：未宣布派息或回购。季末现金5.315亿美元；扣除随后收购Claros支付的1.26亿美元现金后，约为4.05亿美元。公司无债务，第三季度未使用ATM市场增发计划。 

• 短评：随着向AI供电应用转型取得进展，纳微恢复营收增长。产品结构及规模改善支持毛利率，但盈利拐点仍远。Claros扩展电压调节能力，同时显著提高营业成本，因此十二月季度营收增长不会自动缩小营业亏损。GAAP毛利率改善也受益于收购摊销下降；调整后盈利剔除了大量薪酬及重组费用。投资收益缓冲调整后净亏损，并不代表经营已达盈亏平衡。收购后现金仍提供灵活性，不过晶圆库存储备占用资金，新架构亦须通过客户认证。股价于11月3日盘后报8.82美元，较收盘上涨3.04%。反应奖励需求改善，但估值已反映相当大的商业采用预期。中性展望权衡技术潜力、亏损与执行风险。关注在手订单转化、客户集中度、Claros整合、库存消耗，以及AI收入能否快于费用增长。设计合作本身不代表持久的量产收入。 2026年第四季度建议交易区间：7–11美元。中性展望。 

Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: Revenue US$8.893bn versus US$9.008bn, -1.3% YoY; approximately US$647m below US$9.54bn consensus. Adjusted revenue US$9.793bn, +8.7%, excludes a US$900m FTC-related reduction. Room nights grew 7%; gross bookings grew 10%. 

• 3Q26 EPS: Adjusted diluted EPS US$4.66 versus US$3.98, +17.1%; beat US$4.49 consensus by US$0.17. GAAP EPS US$3.61 versus US$3.38. All per-share figures reflect April’s 25-for-1 split. Adjusted net income US$3.509bn versus US$3.240bn, +8.3%. 

• 4Q26 Guidance: Room-night growth 1–3%; gross-bookings growth 2–4%; adjusted-revenue growth 0–2%; adjusted EBITDA approximately flat. No Q4 EPS guidance provided. Outlook assumes continuing Middle East travel disruption. 

• FY26 Guidance: Gross-bookings and adjusted-revenue growth in the high single digits; adjusted EBITDA high-single-digit growth; adjusted EPS low-to-mid-teens growth. Growth bands broadly match prior guidance, with revenue now presented excluding the FTC adjustment. No absolute EPS range provided. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: Quarterly dividend US$0.42/share, payable 31 December, record date 11 December. Q3 repurchases US$2.1bn; remaining authorisation US$12.4bn. Quarterly free cash flow approximately US$1.1bn. 

• Comment: Booking’s underlying travel activity remained resilient, but legal exposure and softer near-term demand keep our outlook neutral. The reported revenue decline largely reflects the FTC adjustment rather than falling bookings. Nevertheless, excluding the associated revenue reduction and expense does not eliminate their economic cost or the possibility of further regulatory action. Adjusted EPS grew faster than net income because repurchases reduced the average share count. Direct distribution, merchant payments and connected-trip bookings strengthen customer engagement, while AI investment could improve service efficiency and conversion. These benefits must now offset slower international travel and disruption from the Middle East conflict. Shares traded at US$154.00 post-market on 3 November, down 1.07% from the close. Valuation is more accessible after recent weakness, but a recovery requires stable demand and contained legal costs. Watch October booking trends, cancellations, marketing efficiency, the FTC matter and cash conversion. Stronger room-night growth without additional regulatory charges would improve the balance of risks. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$140–180. Neutral Outlook. 

Booking Holdings (BKNG) 

• 2026财年第三季度营收：收入88.93亿美元，去年90.08亿美元，同比下降1.3%；较95.4亿美元预期低约6.47亿美元。经调整收入97.93亿美元，增长8.7%，剔除FTC事项导致的9亿美元收入扣减。客房间夜增长7%；总预订额增长10%。 

• 2026财年第三季度每股收益：经调整摊薄每股盈利4.66美元，去年3.98美元，增长17.1%；较4.49美元预期高0.17美元。GAAP每股盈利3.61美元，去年3.38美元。全部每股数据反映4月一拆二十五股份拆细。 经调整净利润35.09亿美元，去年32.40亿美元，增长8.3%。 

• 2026财年第四季度指引：客房间夜增长1–3%；总预订额增长2–4%；经调整收入增长0–2%；经调整EBITDA约持平。未提供第四季度每股盈利指引。展望假设中东旅游干扰持续。 

• 2026财年指引：总预订额及经调整收入增长较高个位数；经调整EBITDA增长较高个位数；经调整每股盈利增长百分之十出头至中段。增长区间大致符合此前指引，但收入现剔除FTC调整。未提供绝对每股盈利区间。 

• 股息与回购：季度股息每股0.42美元，12月31日支付，登记日12月11日。第三季度回购21亿美元；剩余授权124亿美元。季度自由现金流约11亿美元。 

• 短评：Booking基础旅游活动仍具韧性，但法律敞口及短期需求转弱使我们维持中性。报告收入下降主要来自FTC调整，并非预订额减少。不过，剔除有关收入扣减及费用，并不消除实际经济成本或进一步监管行动的可能。回购降低平均股数，使经调整每股盈利增长快于净利润。直销渠道、商户支付及组合行程预订强化客户互动，AI投资亦可能改善服务效率及转化。这些效益现须抵消国际旅游放缓及中东冲突带来的干扰。股价于11月3日盘后报154.00美元，较收盘下跌1.07%。近期疲弱使估值更易接受，但复苏仍需需求稳定及法律成本受控。关注10月预订趋势、取消率、营销效率、FTC事项及现金转化。客房间夜增长增强且无额外监管费用，将改善风险平衡。 2026年第四季度建议交易区间：140–180美元。中性展望。 

Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: Revenue US$584.899m versus US$230.575m, +153.7% YoY; approximately US$34.1m above US$550.8m consensus. Revenue rose 49% sequentially. Scorpio became the largest product family; non-GAAP operating margin rose to 44.7% from 39.1% sequentially. 

• 3Q26 EPS: Non-GAAP diluted EPS US$1.32 versus US$0.49, +169.4%; beat US$1.19 consensus by US$0.13. GAAP EPS US$0.99 versus US$0.50. Stock compensation US$82.59m; non-GAAP tax rate approximately 11% versus 18% a year earlier. 

• 4Q26 Guidance: Revenue US$730–750m; non-GAAP EPS US$1.62–1.66 and GAAP EPS US$1.13–1.17. Gross margin approximately 72%; non-GAAP operating expenses US$194–200m. Approximately 187m diluted shares assumed. 

• FY26 Guidance: The company did not provide full-year revenue or EPS guidance. Orion platform shipments expected in 2027; optical products expected to begin contributing revenue in late 2027. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: No dividend or new buyback announced. Cash and marketable securities US$1.378bn. Nine-month operating cash flow US$341.477m; capital expenditure US$73.363m. Q3 operating cash flow US$179.2m. 

• Comment: Astera’s rapid Scorpio ramp and stronger December outlook improve the earnings trajectory, but valuation and platform concentration keep our view neutral. Growth is supported by increasing connectivity content as accelerators move into larger clusters, with memory, optical and reference-platform products expanding future opportunities. Those products remain at different qualification stages, so design activity should not be equated with immediate recurring revenue. Operating leverage is substantial, although adjusted earnings exclude material stock compensation and benefit from a lower tax rate. Gross margin has declined as product mix evolves, making sustained operating discipline important. Strong cash generation is encouraging, but receivables and inventory have increased with the expansion. Shares traded at US$225.99 post-market on 3 November, down 3.27% from the close. The reaction illustrates a high expectations bar despite the beat. Watch Scorpio customer diversification, platform deployment schedules, gross margin, collections and whether optical and memory programmes reach production without excessive incremental research spending. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$200–275. Neutral Outlook. 

Astera Labs (ALAB) 

• 2026财年第三季度营收：营收5.84899亿美元，去年2.30575亿美元，同比增长153.7%；较5.508亿美元预期高约3,410万美元。收入环比增长49%。Scorpio成为最大产品系列；非GAAP经营利润率由上季度39.1%升至44.7%。 

• 2026财年第三季度每股收益：非GAAP摊薄每股盈利1.32美元，去年0.49美元，增长169.4%；较1.19美元预期高0.13美元。GAAP每股盈利0.99美元，去年0.50美元。股权薪酬8,259万美元；非GAAP税率约11%，去年18%。 

• 2026财年第四季度指引：营收7.30亿至7.50亿美元；非GAAP每股盈利1.62至1.66美元，GAAP每股盈利1.13至1.17美元。毛利率约72%；非GAAP经营费用1.94亿至2亿美元。假设摊薄股数约1.87亿股。 

• 2026财年指引：公司未提供全年收入或每股盈利指引。Orion平台预计2027年出货；光学产品预计2027年末开始贡献收入。 

• 股息与回购：未宣布股息或新回购。现金及有价证券13.78亿美元。首九个月经营现金流3.41477亿美元，资本开支7,336.3万美元。第三季度经营现金流1.792亿美元。 

• 短评：Astera的Scorpio快速放量及更强十二月季度指引改善盈利轨迹，但估值与平台集中度使我们维持中性。加速器组成更大集群，连接价值量提升支持增长，存储、光学及参考平台产品扩大未来机会。各产品仍处不同认证阶段，设计活动不能等同即时可持续收入。经营杠杆显著，惟经调整盈利剔除大量股权薪酬，亦受惠于较低税率。随着产品结构变化，毛利率下降，持续成本纪律尤为重要。现金创造强劲令人鼓舞，但应收款与库存随扩张增加。股价于11月3日盘后报225.99美元，较收盘下跌3.27%。尽管业绩超预期，股价反应显示市场要求较高。关注Scorpio客户多元化、平台部署时程、毛利率、回款，以及光学与存储项目能否在无需过度增加研发支出的情况下实现量产。 2026年第四季度建议交易区间：200–275美元。中性展望。 

Amgen Inc. (AMGN) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: Revenue US$10.365bn versus US$9.557bn, +8.5% YoY; approximately US$305m above US$10.06bn consensus. Repatha sales grew 37%; Imdelltra grew 128%; Prolia declined 45% amid biosimilar competition. 

• 3Q26 EPS: Non-GAAP diluted EPS US$6.45 versus US$5.64, +14.4%; beat US$5.78 consensus by US$0.67. GAAP EPS US$7.08 versus US$5.93; GAAP earnings include US$1.465bn net equity-investment gains. GAAP net income US$3.864bn versus US$3.216bn, +20.1%. Non-GAAP operating margin 47.3% versus 47.1%, measured against product sales. 

• 4Q26 Guidance: No standalone Q4 revenue or EPS range provided. Management expects a meaningful sequential increase in operating expenses, including higher cost-of-sales ratios and selling expenses. 

• FY26 Guidance: Revenue raised to US$38.9–39.7bn from US$38.2–39.4bn; non-GAAP EPS raised to US$22.90–23.70 from US$22.30–23.50. GAAP EPS US$18.34–19.28. Capex approximately US$2.6bn; repurchases not exceeding US$3bn. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: Quarterly dividend US$2.52/share, payable 11 December, record date 20 November. No Q3 repurchases. Free cash flow US$3.654bn versus US$4.248bn. Cash US$13.2bn; debt US$54.0bn. Operating cash flow US$4.241bn versus US$4.684bn a year earlier. 

• Comment: Amgen’s newer medicines are offsetting legacy-product erosion, but valuation and development risk keep our outlook neutral. Repatha, Imdelltra and rare-disease therapies demonstrate commercial breadth, while biosimilars are sharply reducing Prolia and Xgeva sales. GAAP EPS is flattered by equity-investment gains; its operating improvement also benefits from lower acquisition amortisation. Non-GAAP earnings offer a cleaner comparison, although a lower tax rate supported growth and fourth-quarter spending is expected to rise. Free cash flow remains substantial but fell from the unusually strong prior-year quarter, and debt limits unrestricted capital deployment. Shares traded at US$455.40 post-market on 3 November, down 1.27% from the close. The strong preceding rally leaves valuation sensitive to disappointing launches or clinical data. MariTide offers important potential, but late-stage development does not guarantee approval or commercial competitiveness. Watch growth-product uptake, biosimilar pricing, trial tolerability, fourth-quarter margins and debt reduction. Continued portfolio growth with dependable cash conversion would support a more constructive stance. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$420–480. Neutral Outlook. 

安进 (AMGN) 

• 2026财年第三季度营收：收入103.65亿美元，去年95.57亿美元，同比增长8.5%；较100.6亿美元预期高约3.05亿美元。Repatha销售增长37%；Imdelltra增长128%；Prolia受生物类似药竞争影响下降45%。 

• 2026财年第三季度每股收益：非GAAP摊薄每股盈利6.45美元，去年5.64美元，增长14.4%；较5.78美元预期高0.67美元。GAAP每股盈利7.08美元，去年5.93美元；GAAP盈利包含14.65亿美元股权投资净收益。 GAAP净利润38.64亿美元，去年32.16亿美元，增长20.1%。以产品销售额计算的非GAAP经营利润率47.3%，去年47.1%。 

• 2026财年第四季度指引：未提供独立第四季度收入或每股盈利区间。管理层预计经营费用环比明显增加，包括销售成本占比及销售费用上升。 

• 2026财年指引：收入由382–394亿美元升至389–397亿美元；非GAAP每股盈利由22.30–23.50美元升至22.90–23.70美元。GAAP每股盈利18.34–19.28美元。资本开支约26亿美元；回购不超过30亿美元。 

• 股息与回购：季度股息每股2.52美元，12月11日支付，登记日11月20日。第三季度未回购。自由现金流36.54亿美元，去年42.48亿美元。现金132亿美元；债务540亿美元。 经营现金流42.41亿美元，去年同期46.84亿美元。 

• 短评：安进新药正抵消成熟产品收入流失，但估值及开发风险使我们维持中性。Repatha、Imdelltra及罕见病疗法体现商业增长广度，而生物类似药正大幅削弱Prolia及Xgeva销售。股权投资收益推高GAAP每股盈利，收购摊销下降亦有助经营改善。非GAAP盈利提供较清晰比较，但较低税率支持增长，第四季度费用亦预计增加。自由现金流仍可观，但低于异常强劲的去年同期，债务限制资本灵活部署。股价于11月3日盘后报455.40美元，较收盘下跌1.27%。此前强劲涨势使估值对新药推出或临床数据不及预期较敏感。MariTide潜力重要，但后期开发并不保证获批或商业竞争力。关注增长产品采用、生物类似药定价、试验耐受性、第四季度利润率及债务下降。产品组合持续增长且现金转化可靠，将支持更积极观点。 2026年第四季度建议交易区间：420–480美元。中性展望。