Technical Analysis: 31 July 2026

Mastercard Incorporated (MA) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $9.3B, +14.8% YoY, beat estimates by $220M 

• 2Q26 Non-GAAP EPS:  $5.04, beat estimates by $0.26 

• FY26 Guidance: Management modestly increased its FY26 revenue outlook to low-teens growth, reflecting continued strength in payment network activity and value-added services. 

• Comment: This was another high-quality quarter. Payment network revenue increased 10%, value-added services revenue grew 20%, and switched transactions increased 9% to 47.4B. Consumer spending remained resilient across income groups despite macro uncertainty, while travel and cross-border spending continued to support growth. The key positive is that growth is becoming increasingly diversified. Cybersecurity, fraud prevention, analytics and other value-added services are expanding faster than the core payments network, reducing reliance on transaction fees alone. Management also highlighted continued investment in digital assets and cross-border payment infrastructure. Shares rose approximately 2%–3% following the results. The principal variables to monitor are consumer spending resilience, cross-border travel volumes, continued growth in value-added services, and operating-margin sustainability as Mastercard increases investment in technology and AI. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $530 to $630. Neutral Outlook. 

 

Mastercard Incorporated（MA) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：93亿美元，同比增长14.8%，超出预期2.2亿美元 

• 26财年第二季度非公认会计准则每股收益：5.04美元，显著超出预期0.26美元 

• 26财年全年指引：小幅上调全年营收增速至“低双位数”（约10%–13%），反映支付网络活动与增值服务持续强劲 

• 短评：本季度再次展现高质量增长。支付网络收入增长10%，增值服务（如网络安全、反欺诈、数据分析）；交易处理量（switched transactions）。消费者支出在各收入阶层均保持韧性，跨境及旅行消费继续成为关键驱动力。尤为积极的是，增长结构日益多元化：高毛利的增值服务增速快于传统交易处理业务，降低对单一手续费模式的依赖，并提升整体盈利质量。公司同时加大在数字资产、AI及跨境支付基础设施上的投入，为长期竞争力布局。财报后股价上涨2%–3%，符合市场对稳健型金融科技龙头的预期——虽无惊喜，但确定性强。后续关键变量包括：（1）全球消费者支出是否在高利率环境下维持韧性；（2）跨境旅行与商务活动恢复节奏；（3）增值服务能否持续以20%+速度扩张；（4）技术与AI投资是否会短期压制运营利润率（当前约50%+）。Mastercard凭借其轻资产、高壁垒的网络效应，在全球数字化支付浪潮中占据核心地位。基本面稳固、现金流强劲、股息增长可期。尽管估值已反映部分乐观预期，但在宏观不确定性中仍具防御性。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：530美元至630美元。中性前景。 

 

Altria Group, Inc. (MO) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $5.36B, +0.2% YoY, in-line with estimates 

• 2Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.48, miss estimates by $0.02 

• FY26 Guidance: Narrowed FY26 adjusted EPS guidance to US$5.61–US$5.72, versus the prior range of US$5.56–US$5.72, reflecting stronger first-half execution and expected import/export benefits in the second half. 

• Dividends/Share Buybacks: Repurchased 5.3M shares for approximately US$335M during the quarter. Altria returned nearly US$3.9B to shareholders through dividends and buybacks in 1H26. The company continues to target an approximately 80% payout ratio. 

• Comment: This was a mixed quarter. Revenue held up despite continued volume declines, and adjusted EPS increased modestly. Pricing continued to support the core cigarette franchise, while the decline in Marlboro shipment volumes improved to 7.4% from 11.4% a year ago. The smokeable-products segment remained highly profitable despite ongoing industry contraction. The main issue is weakening consumer demand and intensifying competition in reduced-risk products. Premium cigarette pricing was less effective than expected as consumers traded down to value brands, while on! nicotine pouch shipment volumes fell 4.2% amid stronger competition. In addition, the NJOY ACE vaping product remains absent from the U.S. market because of an import ban. Shares fell approximately 7% following the results as investors focused on the EPS miss and deteriorating pricing power. The principal variables to monitor are cigarette pricing power, premium-to-discount consumer trade-down, recovery of on! market share, resolution of the NJOY import ban, and continued shareholder returns. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $60 to $80. Positive Outlook. 

 

Altria Group, Inc.（MO) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：53.6亿美元，同比增长0.2%，符合预期 

• 26财年第二季度非公认会计准则每股收益：1.48美元，略低于预期0.02美元 

• 26财年全年指引调整：收窄调整后EPS指引至5.61–5.72美元（原为5.56–5.72美元），反映上半年执行强于预期及下半年进出口套利机会 

• 股息与回购：Q2回购530万股（约3.35亿美元）；26财年上半年向股东返还近39亿美元（含股息与回购），维持约80%的派息率目标 

• 短评：本季度表现混合，在传统烟草结构性下滑背景下展现一定韧性。营收持平、盈利微增，主要依靠提价抵消销量萎缩。万宝路（Marlboro），显示高端卷烟需求压力有所缓解。然而，核心挑战正在加剧：消费者持续向低价品牌转移，削弱高端产品提价效力；on!尼古丁袋出货量同比下降4.2%，面临ZYN等竞品激烈挤压；NJOY ACE电子烟因进口禁令仍无法在美国市场销售，错失减害产品增长窗口。尽管可燃烟草板块仍贡献高利润，但减害产品转型进展滞后，引发市场对长期增长路径的担忧。财报后股价下跌约7%，反映投资者对定价权弱化与新品类竞争失利的负面解读。后续关键变量包括：（1）高端卷烟能否维持提价能力；（2）消费降级趋势是否进一步侵蚀利润率；（3）on!产品市场份额能否止跌回升；（4）NJOY进口禁令是否有望解除；（5）高比例股东回报能否持续支撑估值。Altria现金流稳健、股息收益率具吸引力（当前约8%+），在防御性资产中仍有配置价值。若减害业务出现突破或监管环境改善，或带来估值修复。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：60美元至80美元。积极前景。 

  

Blue Owl Capital Inc. (OWL) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $753.1M, +7.1% YoY, beat estimates by $65.37M 

• 2Q26 GAAP EPS: $0.02 

• FY26 Guidance: Management expects to exceed current 2026 consensus for both fee-related earnings and distributable earnings. Approximately US$31B of AUM has yet to begin paying management fees, providing a meaningful pipeline for future fee growth.  

• Dividends/Share Buybacks: Declared a quarterly dividend of US$0.23 per share. 

• Comment: This was a better-than-feared quarter. Fee-related earnings and distributable earnings both grew 9%, management-fee revenue continued to expand, and AUM reached another record despite a difficult fundraising environment. The company’s diversification into infrastructure, GP strategic capital and AI-related real assets continues to reduce its dependence on traditional direct lending. Data-centre infrastructure remains one of the fastest-growing businesses. The primary weakness remains private credit fundraising. Total capital raised fell to US$7.6B from US$12.1B a year ago as wealthy investors continued withdrawing capital from non-traded credit vehicles. Management believes inflows have likely bottomed and noted redemption requests are easing, but recovery is expected to be gradual rather than V-shaped. Shares nevertheless rose about 6% after earnings as investors focused on improving fee growth and management’s confidence in exceeding 2026 earnings expectations. The principal variables to monitor are stabilization of retail credit flows, deployment of the US$31B of fee-eligible capital, continued expansion in AI infrastructure and data-centre investments, and fundraising across institutional channels. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $9 to $11. Neutral Outlook. 

 

Blue Owl Capital Inc.（OWL) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：7.531亿美元，同比增长7.1%，超出预期6537万美元 

• 26财年第二季度公认会计准则每股收益：0.02美元（未提供明确预期对比，但整体盈利指标超预期） 

• 26财年全年指引：管理层预计2026年费用相关收益（FRE）；目前约310亿美元AUM尚未开始收取管理费，构成显著的未来费用增长管道 

• 股息：宣布季度股息每股0.23美元 

• 短评：本季度表现优于市场悲观预期，在募资环境严峻的背景下展现韧性。费用相关收益（FRE），可分配收益（DE）均增长9%，管理费收入持续扩张，AUM再创历史新高。公司正成功推进业务多元化——从传统直接贷款，拓展至基础设施、GP战略资本及AI相关实物资产（如数据中心），降低对单一信贷策略的依赖。其中，数据中心基础设施已成为增长最快的板块之一。然而，私人信贷募资仍是主要拖累：Q2总募资额降至76亿美元（去年同期121亿美元），主因高净值投资者持续从非交易型信贷产品中撤资。尽管管理层认为赎回压力已见顶、资金流出趋缓，但复苏预计是渐进式而非V型反弹。财报后股价上涨约6%，反映投资者更关注费用增长可见性提升与310亿美元待收费AUM的潜在释放，而非短期募资疲软。后续关键变量包括：（1）零售信贷资金流是否企稳并恢复净流入；（2）310亿美元待收费资产能否顺利进入收费期；（3）AI与数据中心投资组合的规模扩张与回报表现；（4）机构渠道募资能否弥补零售端缺口。Blue Owl作为另类资产管理平台，正通过战略转型增强抗周期能力。若待收费AUM如期转化，将显著提升盈利能见度与稳定性。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：9美元至11美元。中性前景。 

 

Apple Inc. (AAPL) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: $109.42B, +16.4% YoY, beat estimates by $460M 

• 3Q26 GAAP EPS: $2.02, beat estimates by $0.13 

• 4Q26 Guidance: Expect revenue to rise 9% to 11%, vs consensus of more than 12%. 

• Comment: Apple delivered a strong fiscal third quarter, with revenue rising 16% YoY to US$109.4bn and EPS increasing to US$2.02, both exceeding expectations, driven by robust iPhone and Mac demand. iPhone revenue grew 22% YoY to US$54.3bn, while Mac revenue surged 29% to US$10.4bn following the launch of new Mac models. However, services revenue of US$30.7bn and China revenue of US$18.8bn both missed expectations, while iPad sales also came in below consensus. Management issued softer-than-expected fiscal fourth-quarter guidance, forecasting revenue growth of 9–11%, citing ongoing processor shortages, higher memory costs, foreign exchange headwinds and slower services growth. The company also highlighted regulatory changes affecting App Store monetisation and softer gaming revenue, although it introduced a new device leasing programme to support customer demand amid higher product prices. Apple remains supported by a resilient hardware ecosystem, with upcoming product launches including new Macs, iPads, wearable devices, smart glasses and its first foldable iPhone expected to provide longer-term growth opportunities. However, near-term performance is likely to remain constrained by component shortages, elevated memory costs, regulatory pressure on App Store commissions and a slower-growing services business. Under incoming CEO John Ternus, Apple’s ability to strengthen its AI capabilities, execute its expanding product roadmap and sustain demand across its premium hardware ecosystem will be key drivers of future growth, while supply chain normalisation and improvements in China demand remain important factors to monitor. 4Q26 recommended trading range: $290 to $350. Neutral Outlook. 

 

Apple Inc.（AAPL) 

• 26财年第三季度营收：1094.2亿美元，同比增长16.4%，超出预期4.6亿美元 

• 26财年第三季度公认会计准则每股收益：2.02美元，超出预期0.13美元 

• 26财年第四季度指引：预计营收增长9%至11%，低于市场预期的12%以上 

• 短评：苹果在26财年第三季度表现强劲，受iPhone和Mac需求旺盛的推动，营收同比增长16%至1094亿美元，每股收益增至2.02美元，双双超出预期。iPhone营收同比增长22%至543亿美元，而在新Mac机型发布的推动下，Mac营收激增29%至104亿美元。然而，307亿美元的服务营收和188亿美元的大中华区营收均不及预期，iPad销量也低于市场共识。管理层给出的26财年第四季度指引弱于预期，预计营收增长9%至11%，理由是持续的处理器短缺、内存成本上升、外汇逆风以及服务业务增长放缓。公司还强调了影响App Store变现的监管变化以及游戏收入的疲软，尽管其推出了新的设备租赁计划，以在产品价格走高的背景下支持客户需求。苹果依然受到其韧性十足的硬件生态系统的支持，即将推出的新产品（包括新Mac、iPad、可穿戴设备、智能眼镜以及首款折叠屏iPhone）预计将提供长期的增长机会。然而，短期业绩可能仍会受到零部件短缺、内存成本高企、App Store佣金监管压力以及服务业务增长放缓的制约。在即将上任的CEO约翰·特努斯（John Ternus）的领导下，苹果加强AI能力、执行不断扩大的产品路线图以及在高端硬件生态系统中维持需求的能力，将成为未来增长的关键驱动力；同时，供应链正常化和中国需求的改善仍是需要密切关注的重要因素。26财年第四季度建议交易区间：290美元至350美元。中性前景景。 
   

Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $200.61B, +19.6% YoY, beat estimates by $4.16B 

• 2Q26 GAAP EPS: $5.75, beat estimates by $3.92 

• FY26 Guidance: Expects capital expenditures to reach $220B, a 10% increase from an earlier forecast. 

• Comment: Amazon delivered a strong second quarter, with AWS revenue surging 37% YoY to US$42.2bn, comfortably exceeding expectations and marking its fastest growth in 18 quarters, driven by robust demand for AI infrastructure and cloud services. The company also reported continued strength in its advertising business, where revenue increased 26% YoY to US$19.8bn, while its e-commerce segment benefited from faster delivery expansion, rural market penetration and a successful Prime Day event. Reflecting sustained AI demand, management raised its 2026 capital expenditure outlook to US$220bn from US$200bn previously, although heavy infrastructure investment caused free cash flow to turn negative. Amazon also disclosed that it received approximately US$600mn in U.S. tariff refunds, with part of the proceeds expected to be returned to affected customers and the remainder reinvested to support lower prices. Amazon remains well-positioned to benefit from accelerating enterprise AI adoption, with AWS continuing to see strong demand that management expects to exceed available capacity through both 2026 and 2027. Ongoing investments in AI infrastructure, custom chips, cloud services and data centres should support long-term revenue growth, while expansion in advertising and improvements across its retail network provide additional earnings drivers. Although elevated capital expenditure will likely continue to weigh on near-term free cash flow, management believes these investments will generate attractive long-term returns as new capacity comes online. Key factors to monitor include the pace of AI infrastructure demand, execution of large-scale data centre expansion, cloud competition and the profitability of its growing AI ecosystem. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $240 to $270. Neutral Outlook. 

 

Amazon.com Inc.（AMZN)  

• 26财年第二季度营收：2006.1亿美元，同比增长19.6%，超出预期41.6亿美元 

• 26财年第二季度公认会计准则每股收益：5.75美元，超出预期3.92美元 

• 26财年全年指引：预计资本支出将达到2200亿美元，较早期预测上调10% 

• 短评：亚马逊在第二季度表现强劲，受AI基础设施和云服务需求旺盛的推动，AWS营收同比激增37%至422亿美元，轻松超出预期，创下18个季度以来的最快增速。公司广告业务也持续表现强劲，营收同比增长26%至198亿美元；同时，其电商业务得益于配送网络的快速扩张、下沉市场的渗透以及成功的“Prime Day”活动。反映出持续的AI需求，管理层将2026年资本支出预期从之前的2000亿美元上调至2200亿美元，尽管重资产的基础设施投资导致自由现金流转为负值。亚马逊还披露，其获得了约6亿美元的美国关税退款，部分款项预计将退还给受影响的客户，其余部分将重新投资以支持更低的价格。亚马逊仍处于有利地位，有望从企业加速采用AI中获益，AWS持续面临强劲需求，管理层预计2026年和2027年需求将超过可用产能。在AI基础设施、定制芯片、云服务和数据中心方面的持续投资应能支撑长期营收增长，而广告业务的扩张及其零售网络的改善将提供额外的盈利驱动力。尽管资本支出的增加可能会继续对短期自由现金流造成压力，但管理层相信，随着新产能的上线，这些投资将产生可观的长期回报。需要关注的关键因素包括：AI基础设施需求的增长步伐、大规模数据中心扩张的执行情况、云计算竞争态势以及其不断壮大的AI生态系统的盈利能力。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：240美元至270美元。中性前景。 
   

Roblox Corp (RBLX) 

• 2Q26 Bookings: $1.56B, miss estimates by $40M 

• 2Q26 GAAP EPS: –$0.26, beat estimates by $0.07 

• 3Q26 Guidance: Expect bookings between $1.58B and $1.65B, compared with estimates of $1.77B. 

• Comment: Roblox reported mixed second-quarter results, with bookings rising 8% YoY to US$1.56bn, broadly in line with expectations, while daily active users increased 10% YoY to 123 million despite a 7% sequential decline. However, the company issued weaker-than-expected third-quarter bookings guidance of US$1.58bn-1.65bn, well below consensus, as changes to its recommendation algorithm shifted engagement toward newer and evergreen games that generate lower revenue per hour, while stricter age-verification and child-safety measures created additional friction for user onboarding and engagement. Management noted that monetisation weakness is likely to persist in the near term, although investments in AI, platform safety and content diversification continue to support the long-term health of the ecosystem. Roblox also continued to expand its higher-value user base, with users aged over 18 accounting for 27% of age-verified DAUs, a demographic that monetises significantly better than younger users. Roblox remains focused on driving long-term sustainable growth through AI-powered platform enhancements, improved safety standards, content diversification and expansion into older demographics and international markets. While these initiatives are expected to strengthen user retention and monetisation over time, management expects near-term bookings to remain under pressure as recommendation algorithm changes and safety measures weigh on spending. The pace of monetisation recovery, growth in higher-spending adult users, success in attracting new content creators and competitive dynamics within the gaming industry will be key factors influencing future performance. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $38 to $48. Neutral Outlook. 

 

Roblox Corp（RBLX) 

• 26财年第二季度预订量（Bookings）：15.6亿美元，低于预期4000万美元 

• 26财年第二季度公认会计准则每股收益：-0.26美元，超出预期0.07美元 

• 26财年第三季度指引：预计预订量在15.8亿至16.5亿美元之间，低于市场预期的17.7亿美元 

• 短评：Roblox公布了喜忧参半的第二季度业绩，预订量同比增长8%至15.6亿美元，基本符合预期；尽管环比下降7%，但日活跃用户（DAU）仍同比增长10%至1.23亿。然而，公司给出的第三季度预订量指引（15.8亿至16.5亿美元）弱于预期，远低于市场共识，原因是其推荐算法的调整使用户参与度转向每小时创收较低的新游戏和长青游戏，同时更严格的年龄验证和儿童安全措施为用户注册和参与增加了额外阻力。管理层指出，变现疲软可能在短期内持续，尽管在AI、平台安全和内容多元化方面的投资继续支撑着生态系统的长期健康。Roblox还在继续扩大其高价值用户群，18岁以上用户占经过年龄验证的DAU的27%，该群体的变现能力显著优于年轻用户。Roblox仍致力于通过AI驱动的平台增强、提高安全标准、内容多元化以及向年长群体和国际市场扩张，来推动长期可持续增长。尽管这些举措预计将随着时间的推移加强用户留存和变现，但管理层预计，由于推荐算法的变化和安全措施对支出的抑制，短期预订量仍将承压。变现复苏的步伐、高消费成年用户的增长、吸引新内容创作者的成功与否，以及游戏行业内的竞争动态，将是影响未来业绩的关键因素。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：38美元至48美元。中性前景。 

 

Reddit Inc (RDDT) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $805M, +61.0% YoY, beat estimates by $73.93M 

• 2Q26 GAAP EPS: $1.25, beat estimates by $0.29 

• 3Q26 Guidance: Expect revenue in the range of $860M to $870M vs consensus of $829.1M and adjusted EBITDA in the range of $385M to $395M, above estimates of $369M. 

• Comment: Reddit delivered another strong quarter, with revenue rising 61% YoY to US$805mn, comfortably beating expectations, driven by robust advertiser growth and increasing adoption of its AI-powered advertising platform. The company added advertisers at a 70% YoY pace, particularly among mid-market, small and medium-sized businesses and international customers, while its AI tools for ad creation, targeting and campaign optimisation continued to strengthen monetisation. However, user growth in the U.S. moderated, with daily active unique visitors increasing 6% as changes to search engine algorithms and weaker search referrals weighed on traffic, while international DAUs grew a stronger 28%. Despite these headwinds, Reddit guided for third-quarter revenue of US$860mn-870mn and adjusted EBITDA of US$385mn-395mn, both ahead of market expectations. Reddit remains well-positioned to benefit from continued growth in digital advertising, expanding adoption of its AI-powered advertising tools and improving monetisation of its large global community. Management expects product enhancements to convert more search-driven visitors into loyal app users while continuing to attract new advertisers, particularly internationally and among small and medium-sized businesses. However, changes to search engine algorithms, the pace of U.S. user growth, increasing competition from social media platforms and the evolving impact of AI-powered search remain key factors to monitor. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $140 to $180. Neutral Outlook. 

 

Reddit Inc（RDDT) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：8.05亿美元，同比增长61.0%，超出预期7393万美元 

• 26财年第二季度公认会计准则每股收益：1.25美元，超出预期0.29美元 

• 26财年第三季度指引：预计营收在8.6亿至8.7亿美元之间（市场预期为8.291亿美元），调整后EBITDA在3.85亿至3.95亿美元之间，高于预期的3.69亿美元 

• 短评：Reddit交出了又一个强劲的季度业绩，受广告主数量强劲增长及其AI驱动的广告平台采用率不断提升的推动，营收同比增长61%至8.05亿美元，轻松超出预期。公司广告主数量以70%的同比增速增加，尤其是中型市场、中小企业和国际客户；同时，其用于广告创建、定向和营销优化的AI工具继续增强了变现能力。然而，美国地区的用户增长有所放缓，受搜索引擎算法变化和搜索推荐流量减弱的拖累，日活独立访客仅增长6%，而国际DAU则实现了更强劲的28%增长。尽管面临这些逆风，Reddit对第三季度的指引为营收8.6亿至8.7亿美元，调整后EBITDA为3.85亿至3.95亿美元，均高于市场预期。Reddit仍处于有利地位，有望从数字广告的持续增长、其AI驱动广告工具的不断普及以及其庞大全球社区变现能力的改善中获益。管理层预计，产品增强功能将把更多由搜索驱动的访客转化为忠实的App用户，同时继续吸引新广告主，尤其是在国际市场和中小企业中。然而，搜索引擎算法的变化、美国用户增长的步伐、来自社交媒体平台日益激烈的竞争，以及AI驱动搜索不断演变的影响，仍是需要密切关注的关键因素。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：140美元至180美元。中性前景。