Technical Analysis: 30 July 2026

SoFi Technologies, Inc. (SOFI) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $1.21B, +41.0% YoY, beat estimates by $80M 

• 2Q26 Non-GAAP EPS:  $0.12, beat estimates by $0.01 

• FY26 Guidance: Raised FY26 revenue guidance to US$4.75B–US$4.85B from the prior outlook, but maintained adjusted EPS guidance at US$0.60. 

• Comment: This was an excellent operating quarter. Adjusted revenue increased 40%, members grew 35% to 15.8M, products expanded 42% to 24.4M, and cross-selling continued to accelerate, with 51% of new products opened by existing members. Lending remained exceptionally strong while fee-based businesses continued to diversify the earnings base. The main issue was guidance quality rather than execution. Although management increased its full-year revenue outlook, it left adjusted EPS guidance unchanged. Investors also remain concerned about weaker performance in the Technology Platform segment following the loss of a major client and the continued reliance on balance-sheet growth to support earnings. Shares fell roughly 9%–10% following the results despite record revenue and earnings, illustrating that expectations had shifted toward stronger profit upgrades. The principal variables to monitor are loan growth, net interest margin, Technology Platform recovery, fee-based revenue expansion, and continued cross-selling across the member base. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $12 to $18. Negative Outlook. 

SoFi Technologies, Inc.（SOFI) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：12.1亿美元，同比增长41.0%，超出预期8000万美元 

• 26财年第二季度非公认会计准则每股收益：0.12美元，小幅超出预期0.01美元 

• 26财年全年指引：上调全年营收至47.5亿–48.5亿美元，但维持调整后EPS指引在0.60美元不变 

• 短评：本季度运营表现极为出色，展现强劲增长动能。调整后收入增长40%，会员数达1580万（+35%），产品持有量增至2440万（+42%），51%的新产品由现有会员开通，凸显交叉销售效率持续提升。贷款业务表现尤为强劲，同时手续费收入多元化进展良好，降低对单一收入来源的依赖。然而，市场反应负面——股价大跌9%–10%，主因在于盈利指引未同步上调。尽管营收创纪录、用户指标亮眼，但管理层选择维持全年EPS目标不变，引发投资者对利润转化能力的担忧。此外，Technology Platform板块持续承压（此前失去一大型客户），且公司仍较依赖资产负债表扩张（如贷款规模增长）驱动盈利，在当前利率与监管环境下存在局限性。投资者已将预期从“增长验证”转向“盈利升级”，而SoFi未能满足这一更高门槛。后续关键变量包括：（1）贷款余额增长的可持续性及资产质量；（2）净利息 margin 走势（受美联储政策影响）；（3）Technology Platform能否止跌或找到新增长点；（4）手续费类业务（如保险、财富管理）；（5）会员ARPU与交叉销售深度是否继续提升。SoFi生态协同效应日益显现，用户飞轮运转良好，但盈利路径仍需更清晰的非资产负债表驱动模式。在估值已部分反映高增长背景下，若EPS无法加速，股价或持续承压。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：12美元至18美元。负面前景。 

Ventas, Inc. (VTR) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $1.73B, +21.8% YoY, beat estimates by $40M 

• 2Q26 FFO: $0.97, miss estimates by $0.01 

• FY26 Guidance: Raised FY26 Normalized FFO guidance to US$3.86–US$3.92 per share (midpoint US$3.89) from prior guidance, reflecting stronger-than-expected senior housing fundamentals. Same-store SHOP NOI growth guidance was also increased as occupancy and pricing continued to improve. 

• Dividends/Share Buybacks: Maintained the quarterly dividend at US$0.48 per share. 

• Comment: This was another strong beat-and-raise quarter. Senior housing remained the primary growth engine, supported by rising occupancy, higher rental rates and limited new industry supply. SHOP NOI growth continued to outperform expectations, while outpatient medical buildings delivered stable occupancy and rent collections. Demographic tailwinds from the ageing U.S. population remain firmly intact and continue to support multi-year earnings visibility. The principal concern is valuation rather than operations. Shares entered the results near record highs after a strong rally, leaving less room for further multiple expansion. In addition, higher interest rates and financing costs remain potential headwinds for acquisition activity and property valuations, although Ventas’ balance sheet remains relatively well positioned. Shares traded around all-time highs following the earnings release, with only a muted market reaction given elevated expectation. The principal variables to monitor are continued SHOP occupancy gains, same-store NOI growth, acquisition opportunities, interest-rate movements and the pace of new senior-housing supply. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $90 to $110. Neutral Outlook. 

Ventas, Inc.（VTR) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：17.3亿美元，同比增长21.8%，超出预期4000万美元 

• 26财年第二季度营运资金（FFO）：每股0.97美元，略低于预期0.01美元 

• 26财年全年指引上调：Normalized FFO指引提升至每股3.86–3.92美元（中值3.89美元），主因高端养老住宅（Senior Housing）；同店SHOP NOI增长指引同步上调 

• 股息：维持季度股息每股0.48美元 

• 短评：本季度延续“超预期+上调指引”的强势表现，基本面持续改善。养老住宅业务仍是核心驱动力：入住率与租金双双提升，叠加行业新增供给有限，推动SHOP NOI增长持续超预期。门诊医疗办公楼（MOB）板块亦表现稳健，出租率与租金收缴率保持高位。美国人口老龄化长期趋势未变，为公司提供清晰的多年期盈利能见度。然而，市场反应平淡——股价在财报后仅微幅波动，维持在历史高位附近。主因在于：估值已处于高位，前期强劲上涨透支部分利好；FFO小幅不及预期，虽全年指引上调，但短期兑现略逊；利率高企环境仍制约并购扩张与资产重估，尽管公司资产负债表相对健康（投资级评级、固定利率债务占比高）。后续关键变量包括：（1）养老住宅入住率能否继续向疫情前高点（>90%）靠拢；（2）同店NOI增长是否维持双位数动能；（3）利率走势对融资成本与资产估值的影响；（4）新养老社区供应是否显著增加，改变供需平衡；（5）潜在收购机会的出现与执行效率。Ventas作为医疗地产REIT龙头，在结构性人口趋势下具备长期优势，运营指标持续验证复苏逻辑。但当前估值已反映乐观预期，进一步上行需更强催化剂或利率环境改善。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：90美元至110美元。中性前景。 

The Procter & Gamble Company (PG) 

• 4Q26 Revenue: $21.2B, +1.5% YoY, miss estimates by $180M 

• 4Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.43, beat estimates by $0.02 

• FY27 Guidance: FY27 net sales are expected to grow 1%–3%, below the prior year’s 3.3% growth. Core EPS is guided to US$6.89–US$7.11, broadly in line with but slightly below market expectations. Management expects approximately US$1B of profit headwinds from higher raw-material, energy and transportation costs.  

• Dividends/Share Buybacks: P&G maintained its long-standing dividend policy. 

• Comment: This was a mixed quarter. Core EPS exceeded expectations despite higher commodity and marketing costs, while Beauty remained the standout category with approximately 4% organic sales growth. However, overall organic volumes were flat, with weakness persisting in Grooming and Health Care, highlighting uneven consumer demand across the portfolio. The principal concern is margin pressure. Management expects elevated oil prices, geopolitical uncertainty and higher input costs to weigh on FY27 profitability while simultaneously increasing marketing and innovation spending. The restructuring programme, including approximately 7,000 non-manufacturing job reductions, has yet to produce a meaningful acceleration in market-share gains. Shares fell approximately 3% following the results as investors focused on the softer FY27 outlook rather than the earnings beat. The principal variables to monitor are commodity-cost inflation, North American volume recovery, the effectiveness of restructuring initiatives, and whether Beauty can continue offsetting weakness in other categories. 1Q27 recommended trading range: $140 to $160. Neutral Outlook. 

The Procter & Gamble Company（PG) 

• 26财年第四季度营收：212亿美元，同比增长1.5%，低于预期1.8亿美元 

• 26财年第四季度非公认会计准则每股收益：1.43美元，小幅超出预期0.02美元 

• 27财年全年指引：净销售额预计增长1%–3%（低于26财年3.3%的增速）；核心EPS指引为6.89–7.11美元，略低于市场预期；预计面临约10亿美元的利润逆风，来自原材料、能源及运输成本上升 

• 股息：维持长期稳定的股息政策（连续68年增派股息） 

• 短评：本季度表现混合，呈现“盈利超预期、增长乏力”的分化格局。Beauty品类表现亮眼，有机销售增长约4%，成为最大亮点；但整体有机销量持平，Grooming（个护）持续疲软，反映消费者需求在不同品类间显著分化。尽管面临更高的商品成本与营销投入，公司仍实现EPS小幅超预期，显示一定定价能力与成本管控韧性。然而，27财年指引偏谨慎：管理层明确指出，高油价、地缘政治风险及投入成本压力将持续压制利润率，同时公司计划增加创新与营销支出，进一步挤压盈利空间。此外，尽管已宣布裁减约7000个非制造岗位的重组计划，市场份额尚未出现明显加速提升，引发市场对转型成效的疑虑。财报后股价下跌约3%，反映投资者更关注增长放缓与盈利前景承压，而非单季小幅盈利惊喜。后续关键变量包括：（1）大宗商品价格走势（尤其棕榈油、树脂、天然气）；（2）北美等核心市场销量能否复苏；（3）重组计划是否有效转化为市占率与效率提升；（4）Beauty品类能否持续领跑并带动整体组合升级。作为全球消费品龙头，P&G具备强大品牌力与现金流，但在高通胀与消费分化的环境中，短期缺乏强劲增长催化剂。27财年第一季度建议交易区间：140美元至160美元。中性前景。 
   

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) 

• 4Q26 Revenue: $90B, +17.8% YoY, beat estimates by $2.37B 

• 4Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $4.74, beat estimates by $0.50 

• 1Q27 Guidance: Management guided 1QFY27 revenue to approximately US$90.4B and expects Azure growth of about 45%, both above market expectations. Microsoft maintained its effective FY26 capital-investment outlook at approximately US$175B after an accounting presentation change, with 1QFY27 capex of around US$50B.  

• Dividends/Share Buybacks: Microsoft continues its regular quarterly dividend. In 3QFY26, the company returned US$10.2B to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. 

• Comment: This was an exceptional quarter. Azure growth accelerated to 43%, Microsoft Cloud surpassed US$59B in quarterly revenue, and Microsoft 365 Copilot exceeded 30 million paid seats, demonstrating that AI demand is translating into both infrastructure consumption and software monetisation. Commercial backlog reached a record US$678B, providing outstanding revenue visibility. The most encouraging aspect was not merely the beat but the quality of the guidance. Azure is expected to accelerate further to roughly 45% growth next quarter despite already operating at enormous scale. Meanwhile, management held effective capital-spending plans broadly steady after an accounting adjustment, easing investor concerns that AI infrastructure spending was becoming uncontrollable. Free cash flow remained robust at US$19.6B despite quarterly capex of US$41B, suggesting Microsoft’s AI investments are already generating meaningful economic returns. Shares rose approximately 8%–9% in after-hours trading following the release. The principal variables to monitor are Azure growth sustainability above 40%, Copilot monetisation across Microsoft 365 and GitHub, AI infrastructure returns, and competitive pressure from Google Cloud. 1Q27 recommended trading range: $380 to $480. Positive Outlook. 

Microsoft Corporation（MSFT) 

• 26财年第四季度营收：900亿美元，同比增长17.8%，大幅超出预期23.7亿美元 

• 26财年第四季度非公认会计准则每股收益：4.74美元，显著超出预期0.50美元 

• 27财年第一季度指引：营收约904亿美元，高于市场预期；Azure云服务增长预计约45%（加速于Q4的43%）；资本开支维持全年约1750亿美元（经会计调整后），Q1预计约500亿美元 

• 股息与回购：持续派发季度股息；26财年第三季度向股东返还102亿美元（含分红与回购） 

• 短评：本季度表现极为出色，标志着AI战略全面兑现为收入与利润。Azure增长加速至43%，Microsoft Cloud季度收入突破590亿美元，Microsoft 365 Copilot付费用户超3000万，清晰验证AI不仅驱动基础设施需求，更成功实现企业级软件变现。最大亮点在于前瞻性指引质量极高：在已处于巨大规模基础上，Azure仍预计Q1增长提速至45%，远超行业平均水平。同时，尽管单季资本开支高达410亿美元，自由现金流仍达196亿美元，表明AI投资正产生实质性经济回报，而非单纯烧钱扩张。此外，商业积压订单（backlog），为未来多个季度提供极强收入可见性。管理层通过会计调整澄清资本开支口径，缓解了市场对“AI支出失控”的担忧。财报后盘后股价大涨8%–9%，反映投资者对微软在AI时代“基础设施+应用层”双重领导地位的高度认可。后续关键变量包括：（1）Azure能否在高基数下维持40%+增长；（2）Copilot在Microsoft 365、GitHub及Dynamics中的渗透率与ARPU提升；（3）AI数据中心投资的资本回报率（ROIC）；（4）谷歌云等竞争对手在大模型与价格上的挑战。微软凭借其云规模、企业客户黏性与AI产品深度整合，已成为本轮技术浪潮中最确定的受益者之一。基本面强劲、现金流充裕、战略执行精准。27财年第一季度建议交易区间：380美元至480美元。积极前景。 
   

Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $60.8B, +27.9% YoY, beat estimates by $510M 

• 2Q26 GAAP EPS: $6.18, miss estimates by $1.04 

• 3Q26 Guidance: 3Q26 revenue is expected to be US$61B–US$64B, slightly below market expectations. 

• FY26 Guidance: Meta also raised its FY26 expense outlook to US$165B–US$169B and increased FY26 capital expenditure guidance to US$130B–US$145B to support AI infrastructure expansion. 

• Comment: This was a mixed quarter. Revenue growth remained exceptionally strong at 28%, advertising demand continued to improve across Facebook, Instagram and Threads, and user engagement reached new highs. AI-powered recommendation systems also continue to support advertising performance and monetisation across Meta’s platforms. The key issue is profitability and capital intensity. Despite the revenue beat, EPS declined because of legal charges, severance costs and sharply higher AI investment. Free cash flow fell 91% to US$784M, while management raised both operating expense and capex guidance, reinforcing concerns that AI spending is accelerating faster than monetisation. Shares fell roughly 10% after the release as investors focused on weaker earnings quality and the increasing cash requirements of Meta’s AI strategy. The principal variables to monitor are advertising ROI from AI products, monetisation of Meta AI and Threads, operating-margin recovery after the legal and restructuring charges, and whether AI infrastructure investment begins generating higher returns over the next 12–24 months. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $500 to $700. Positive Outlook. 

Meta Platforms, Inc.（META) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：608亿美元，同比增长27.9%，超出预期5.1亿美元 

• 26财年第二季度公认会计准则每股收益：6.18美元，低于预期1.04美元 

• 26财年第三季度指引：营收610亿–640亿美元，略低于市场预期 

• 26财年全年指引更新：运营支出上调至1650亿–1690亿美元；资本开支大幅上调至1300亿–1450亿美元，用于加速AI基础设施建设 

• 短评：本季度呈现“收入强劲、盈利承压”的鲜明分化。广告需求持续回暖，Facebook、Instagram及Threads平台用户参与度创历史新高，AI驱动的推荐系统有效提升广告变现效率，支撑近28%的营收增长。然而，盈利质量显著下滑：GAAP EPS不及预期，主因包括一次性法律和解费用、裁员遣散成本，以及AI投资急剧攀升。更令人关注的是，自由现金流同比暴跌91%至7.84亿美元，反映公司正将大量现金投入AI算力、数据中心和大模型研发，而相关收入尚未规模化兑现。尽管管理层强调AI是长期战略核心，但支出增速远超变现节奏，引发市场对“投资回报周期过长”的担忧。财报后股价大跌约10%，显示投资者对高资本强度与短期盈利稀释的敏感性上升。后续关键变量包括：（1）AI推荐系统能否持续提升广告ROI；（2）Meta AI助手与Threads平台的商业化进展（如订阅、电商、高级功能）；（3）运营利润率能否在一次性费用出清后恢复扩张；（4）未来12–24个月内AI基础设施投资是否转化为可量化的收入或效率增益。Meta仍是全球数字广告龙头，用户基础稳固，AI整合领先同业。但当前正处于“战略性烧钱期”，估值逻辑从“利润驱动”转向“AI叙事驱动”。若AI产品能在2027年前实现显著变现，当前投入将奠定长期护城河。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：500美元至700美元。积极前景。 
   

Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $1.31B, +32.5% YoY, beat estimates by $30M 

• 2Q26 GAAP EPS: $0.62, beat estimates by $0.19 

• FY26 Guidance: Management highlighted continued growth in Robinhood Gold, wealth management, prediction-market products, AI-powered trading tools and international expansion. The company also tightened its FY26 operating-expense outlook following cost savings and integration initiatives. 

• Comment: This was an excellent operating quarter. Equities revenue increased 95% to US$129M, options revenue rose 29% to US$342M, and event-contract revenue exceeded US$150M, demonstrating that Robinhood is successfully diversifying away from crypto-driven trading activity. Robinhood Gold subscribers reached another record, while funded accounts and assets under custody continued to expand. The primary weakness remains cryptocurrency. Crypto transaction revenue declined 38% YoY to US$100M, reflecting lower digital-asset activity. At the same time, operating expenses increased roughly 33% as Robinhood invested heavily in AI, product expansion and customer acquisition. Despite a clear earnings beat, the shares fell about 4% after hours as investors focused on valuation after the stock’s strong run and questioned whether event-contract revenue can remain at current levels. The principal variables to monitor are sustained equity and options trading activity, continued Robinhood Gold subscriber growth, monetisation of AI products, international expansion, and whether crypto trading recovers. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $75 to $100. Neutral Outlook. 

Robinhood Markets, Inc.（HOOD) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：13.1亿美元，同比增长32.5%，超出预期3000万美元 

• 26财年第二季度公认会计准则每股收益：0.62美元，显著超出预期0.19美元 

• 26财年全年指引：管理层强调Robinhood Gold、财富管理、预测市场产品、AI交易工具及国际扩张的持续增长；同时收窄全年运营支出预期，反映成本优化与整合成效 

• 短评：本季度运营表现优异，标志公司成功推进收入多元化战略。股票交易收入暴增95%至1.29亿美元，期权收入增长29%至3.42亿美元，事件合约（event contracts，如预测市场）首次贡献超1.5亿美元收入，显示其正有效降低对加密货币交易的依赖。Robinhood Gold订阅用户再创新高，托管资产与活跃账户数持续扩张，平台粘性增强。然而，加密货币业务持续疲软：交易收入同比下滑38%至1亿美元，反映数字资产市场活跃度低迷。同时，运营支出同比增长33%，主因公司在AI产品、新功能开发及用户获取上加大投入，短期压制利润率扩张尽管盈利大幅超预期，股价盘后下跌约4%，反映市场在前期股价强劲上涨后，对以下问题保持谨慎：（1）事件合约等新兴收入是否可持续；（2）当前估值是否已充分反映乐观预期；（3）加密市场若长期低迷，是否限制整体增长天花板。后续关键变量包括：（1）股票与期权交易活跃度能否维持高位；（2）Robinhood Gold付费转化率与ARPU提升；（3）AI驱动的交易工具能否提升用户留存与变现效率；（4）国际市场（如英国、欧盟）扩张进度；（5）加密货币交易是否随市场回暖而反弹。Robinhood正从“加密券商”转型为“全方位零售金融平台”，产品生态日趋成熟。但作为高增长、高波动的金融科技股，其估值对收入结构变化和市场情绪高度敏感。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：75美元至100美元。中性前景。 
   

Arm Holdings PLC (ARM) 

• 1Q27 Revenue: $1.29B, +22.9% YoY, beat estimates by $20M 

• 1Q27 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.45, beat estimates by $0.05 

• 2Q27 Guidance: Expect  revenue of $1.38B, above analysts’ average estimate of $1.34B and profit of 47 cents per share, adjusted for ​stock compensation, among other things, compared with analysts’ expectations of 43 cents per share. 

• Comment: Arm delivered a solid fiscal first quarter, with revenue rising to US$1.29bn and adjusted EPS of US$0.45, both ahead of expectations, supported by strong AI-related demand across data centres. Royalty revenue increased 22% YoY to US$715mn and licensing revenue grew 23% to US$574mn as hyperscalers and chipmakers expanded their use of Arm-based architectures for custom AI processors and data-centre CPUs. Management guided for Q2 revenue of US$1.38bn and adjusted EPS of US$0.47, both above consensus, while noting that near-term smartphone royalties may weaken due to memory shortages. Looking ahead, Arm is well positioned to benefit from accelerating AI inference workloads, growing adoption of power-efficient Arm CPUs in data centres, and early demand for its new AGI CPU platform, although near-term growth could remain constrained by smartphone market weakness, supply limitations and the execution risks associated with moving from an intellectual-property model into selling its own chips. 2Q27 recommended trading range: $190 to $230. Neutral Outlook. 

Arm控股公司（ARM) 

• 27财年第一季度营收：12.9亿美元，同比增长22.9%，优于预期2000万美元 

• 27财年第一季度非公认会计准则每股收益：0.45美元，优于预期0.05美元 

• 27财年第二季度指引：预计营收为13.8亿美元，高于分析师平均预期的13.4亿美元；调整后每股收益为0.47美元，高于分析师预期的0.43美元。 

• 短评：Arm公布了稳健的2027财年第一季度业绩，营收增至12.9亿美元，调整后每股收益为0.45美元，双双超出预期，这得益于数据中心强劲的AI相关需求。随着超大规模云服务商和芯片制造商扩大基于Arm架构的定制AI处理器和数据中心CPU的使用，特许权使用费收入同比增长22%至7.15亿美元，授权许可收入同比增长23%至5.74亿美元。管理层预计第二季度营收为13.8亿美元，调整后每股收益为0.47美元，均高于市场共识，同时指出由于存储短缺，近期智能手机特许权使用费可能走弱。展望未来，Arm有望受益于加速的AI推理工作负载、数据中心中高能效Arm CPU日益普及，以及其新AGI CPU平台的早期需求，尽管近期增长可能仍受智能手机市场疲软、供应限制以及从知识产权模式转向销售自有芯片所带来的执行风险制约。27财年第二季度建议交易区间：190美元至230美元。中性前景。 

Qualcomm Inc (QCOM) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: $9.95B, -4.0% YoY, beat estimates by $280M 

• 3Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.21, miss estimates by $0.01 

• 4Q26 Guidance: Expect earnings to be $2.05 to $2.25 a share and renue to be $9.7B to $10.5B, compared with an average projection of $9.95B. 

• FY27 Guidance: Expect growth for non-phone revenue will accelerate to 60%, an expansion from 24%. 

• Comment: Qualcomm reported fiscal third-quarter results that broadly met expectations, with adjusted EPS of US$2.21 on revenue of US$9.95bn, although management issued a weaker-than-expected outlook as persistent smartphone weakness, memory shortages and rising component costs continue to pressure its core handset business. The company expects Android smartphone revenue to decline around 20% in FY26 and also warned that Apple’s transition to in-house modem chips is progressing faster than anticipated. Despite these headwinds, Qualcomm noted that Chinese smartphone demand has likely bottomed and expects sequential double-digit growth in handset revenue during the fourth fiscal quarter. Meanwhile, its diversification strategy continues to gain traction, with automotive and IoT revenues reaching US$1.59bn and US$1.83bn respectively, while management expects non-handset revenue growth to accelerate to 60% in FY27. While Qualcomm is likely to face near-term pressure from a weaker smartphone market, Apple insourcing and ongoing supply constraints, its long-term outlook remains supported by expanding exposure to automotive, IoT and AI-driven data centre opportunities. Management expects improving demand from Chinese handset makers, gradual margin recovery through pricing actions and accelerating growth in non-handset businesses to reduce its reliance on smartphones over time. However, the pace of smartphone market recovery, execution in its diversification strategy and customer demand for AI infrastructure will remain key drivers of future earnings growth. 4Q26 recommended trading range: $130 to $170. Neutral Outlook. 

高通公司（QCOM) 

• 26财年第三季度营收：99.5亿美元，同比下降4.0%，超出预期2.8亿美元 

• 26财年第三季度非公认会计准则每股收益：2.21美元，低于预期0.01美元 

• 26财年第四季度指引：预计营收为97亿至105亿美元（分析师平均预期为99.5亿美元），每股收益为2.05至2.25美元 

• 27财年全年指引：预计非手机业务收入增速将从24%加速至60% 

• 短评：高通26财年第三季度业绩基本符合预期，营收99.5亿美元，调整后每股收益2.21美元。然而，由于智能手机市场持续疲软、内存短缺以及零部件成本上升继续对其核心手机业务施压，管理层给出的前瞻指引弱于预期。公司预计26财年安卓智能手机收入将下降约20%，并警告称苹果向自研基带芯片的过渡速度快于预期。尽管面临这些逆风，高通指出中国智能手机需求可能已触底，并预计第四季度手机业务收入将实现环比两位数增长。同时，其多元化战略继续取得进展，汽车和物联网收入分别达到15.9亿美元和18.3亿美元，管理层预计27财年非手机业务收入增速将加速至60%。虽然高通短期内可能面临智能手机市场疲软、苹果自研芯片以及持续供应限制的压力，但其长期前景仍受到汽车、物联网和AI驱动的数据中心机遇不断扩大的支撑。管理层预计，随着中国手机制造商需求改善、通过定价行动实现利润率逐步恢复，以及非手机业务的加速增长，公司对智能手机的依赖将随着时间的推移而降低。然而，智能手机市场复苏的步伐、多元化战略的执行情况以及客户对AI基础设施的需求，仍将是未来盈利增长的关键驱动因素。26财年第四季度建议交易区间：130美元至170美元。中性前景。 

Lam Research Corp. (LRCX) 

• 4Q26 Revenue: $6.72B, +15.1% YoY, beat estimates by $50M 

• 4Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.82, beat estimates by $0.14 

• 1Q27 Guidance: Expect revenue of $8.1B, plus or minus $400M. The company projected gross margin of 52%, plus or minus 1 percentage point, and operating margin of 39.5%, plus or minus 1 point. EPS guidance was $2.15, plus or minus $0.15. 

• Comment: Lam Research delivered a record June quarter, with revenue increasing 30% YoY to US$6.72bn, alongside record operating margin, gross margin and EPS, driven by robust AI-related semiconductor demand and a sharp recovery in NAND spending. NAND revenue more than doubled sequentially as customers accelerated transitions to 256-layer and higher architectures, while DRAM investment remained strong, supported by DDR5, LPDDR5 and HBM technology upgrades. The Customer Support Business Group also achieved a third consecutive quarter of record revenue, benefiting from strong demand for equipment upgrades, automation and Equipment Intelligence solutions. Reflecting stronger industry conditions, Lam raised its outlook for 2026 wafer fab equipment (WFE) spending to the low-US$150bn range and guided for September-quarter revenue of approximately US$8.1bn, representing more than 20% sequential growth, while expecting to outperform overall WFE growth for a third consecutive year. Lam Research is well-positioned to benefit from the continued AI-driven expansion of semiconductor manufacturing, with growing demand for advanced etch, deposition and packaging technologies across NAND, DRAM and leading-edge logic. Management expects WFE spending to accelerate into 2027, supported by sustained AI infrastructure investment, multi-year fab construction plans and increasingly complex semiconductor architectures that expand Lam’s served available market. In addition, continued growth in its Customer Support Business and advanced packaging solutions should provide incremental earnings opportunities. However, customer capital expenditure timing, semiconductor industry cyclicality and geopolitical or supply chain disruptions remain key factors that could influence future growth. 1Q27 recommended trading range: $250 to $300. Neutral Outlook. 

泛林集团（LRCX) 

• 26财年第四季度营收：67.2亿美元，同比增长15.1%，超出预期5000万美元 

• 26财年第四季度非公认会计准则每股收益：1.82美元，优于预期0.14美元 

• 27财年第一季度指引：预计营收为81亿美元（上下浮动4亿美元）；毛利率预计为52%（上下浮动1个百分点），营业利润率预计为39.5%（上下浮动1个百分点）；每股收益指引为2.15美元（上下浮动0.15美元） 

• 短评：泛林集团在6月当季创下历史新高，在强劲的AI相关半导体需求和NAND支出大幅复苏的推动下，营收同比增长30%至67.2亿美元，同时营业利润率、毛利率和每股收益均创下纪录。随着客户加速向256层及更高架构过渡，NAND收入环比增长一倍以上，而在DDR5、LPDDR5和HBM技术升级的支撑下，DRAM投资依然强劲。客户支持业务集团也实现了连续第三个季度的创纪录收入，得益于对设备升级、自动化和设备智能解决方案的强劲需求。反映出行业状况的改善，泛林将2026年晶圆厂设备（WFE）支出预期上调至1500亿美元的低端区间，并预计9月当季（即27财年第一季度）营收约为81亿美元，环比增长超过20%，同时预计将连续第三年跑赢整体WFE的增长。泛林集团处于有利地位，有望受益于AI驱动的半导体制造持续扩张，NAND、DRAM和先进逻辑芯片对先进刻蚀、沉积和封装技术的需求不断增长。管理层预计，在持续的AI基础设施投资、多年期晶圆厂建设计划以及日益复杂的半导体架构（扩大了泛林的可服务可用市场）的支撑下，WFE支出将在2027年加速增长。此外，客户支持业务和先进封装解决方案的持续增长应能提供额外的盈利机会。然而，客户资本支出的时机、半导体行业的周期性以及地缘政治或供应链中断，仍是可能影响未来增长的关键因素。27财年第一季度建议交易区间：250美元至300美元。中性前景。 

Fortinet Inc. (FTNT) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $2.05B, +25.8% YoY, beat estimates by $160M 

• 2Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.90, beat estimates by $0.15 

• 3Q26 Guidance: Expect revenue between $2.01B and $2.10B, above the consensus estimate of $1.95B and adjusted EPS of $0.83 to $0.87, compared to the analyst consensus of $0.77. 

• FY26 Guidance: Raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to a range of $8.02B to $8.18B, above the consensus estimate of $7.81B. Full-year adjusted EPS is expected between $3.41 and $3.47, above the $3.16 consensus. 

• Comment: Fortinet delivered a strong second quarter, with revenue rising 26% YoY to US$2.05bn and adjusted EPS of US$0.90, comfortably exceeding market expectations, driven by robust demand for its AI-enabled cybersecurity platform. Product revenue surged 52% YoY to US$773mn, while recurring service revenue grew to US$1.27bn, reflecting continued adoption of Fortinet’s integrated firewall, SD-WAN and SASE solutions built on its single FortiOS operating system. The company also reported strong billings growth of 33% YoY to US$2.37bn, generated US$966mn in free cash flow and achieved an adjusted operating margin of 38%. Supported by strong execution, Fortinet raised both its FY2026 and Q3 guidance, with full-year revenue now expected to reach US$8.02bn-8.18bn and adjusted EPS of US$3.41-3.47, both above market expectations. Fortinet remains well-positioned to benefit from growing enterprise demand for AI-driven cybersecurity, secure networking and unified SASE solutions as organisations continue to modernise their IT infrastructure. Strong billings momentum, expanding recurring service revenue and industry-leading profitability provide good visibility for continued growth, while management expects demand for its integrated security platform to remain robust throughout the remainder of FY2026. However, enterprise IT spending trends, competitive pressures and the pace of AI-related cybersecurity adoption remain key factors to monitor. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $160 to $190. Neutral Outlook. 

飞塔公司（FTNT) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：20.5亿美元，同比增长25.8%，超出预期1.6亿美元 

• 26财年第二季度非公认会计准则每股收益：0.90美元，优于预期0.15美元 

• 26财年第三季度指引：预计营收为20.1亿至21.0亿美元，高于市场共识预期的19.5亿美元；调整后每股收益为0.83至0.87美元，高于分析师共识预期的0.77美元 

• 26财年全年指引：将2026财年全年营收指引上调至80.2亿至81.8亿美元，高于市场共识预期的78.1亿美元；预计全年调整后每股收益为3.41至3.47美元，高于共识预期的3.16美元 

• 短评：飞塔第二季度业绩表现强劲，在对其AI赋能网络安全平台强劲需求的推动下，营收同比增长26%至20.5亿美元，调整后每股收益0.90美元，轻松超出市场预期。产品收入同比激增52%至7.73亿美元，而经常性服务收入增长至12.7亿美元，反映出市场对其基于单一FortiOS操作系统构建的集成防火墙、SD-WAN和SASE解决方案的持续采用。公司还报告了强劲的订单额（billings）增长，同比大增33%至23.7亿美元，产生9.66亿美元的自由现金流，并实现了38%的调整后营业利润率。在强劲执行的支撑下，飞塔上调了26财年和第三季度的指引，预计全年营收将达到80.2亿至81.8亿美元，调整后每股收益为3.41至3.47美元，均高于市场预期。随着企业继续现代化其IT基础设施，飞塔仍处于有利地位，有望受益于企业对AI驱动网络安全、安全网络和统一SASE解决方案日益增长的需求。强劲的订单增长势头、不断扩大的经常性服务收入以及行业领先的盈利能力，为持续增长提供了良好的可见性，同时管理层预计，在26财年剩余时间内，对其集成安全平台的需求将保持强劲。然而，企业IT支出趋势、竞争压力以及AI相关网络安全采用的步伐，仍是需要密切关注的关键因素。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：160美元至190美元。中性前景。