Technical Analysis: 3 November 2026

Tempus AI, Inc. (TEM) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: Revenue US$411.537m versus US$334.206m, +23.1% YoY; beat US$409.39m consensus by US$2.15m. Diagnostics revenue increased 20% to US$303.5m; Data and Applications increased 33% to US$108.1m. Oncology testing volume rose 32%. Gross profit increased 27% to US$266.7m; MRD testing volume reached approximately 12,000 tests, up 300%. 

• 3Q26 EPS: Adjusted diluted EPS US$0.07 versus a US$0.11 loss, improving US$0.18; beat approximately US$0.09 loss consensus by approximately US$0.16. GAAP diluted loss per share US$0.08 versus US$0.46. Net loss US$14.9m included US$42.8m of unrealised securities gains; adjusted EBITDA reached US$25.6m versus US$1.5m. GAAP operating loss narrowed to US$56.9m from US$61.0m; adjusted operating income improved to US$14.4m from a US$8.7m loss. 

• 4Q26 Guidance: Revenue US$458–463m; adjusted EBITDA approximately US$34m. Data and Applications revenue growth approximately 30%. The company did not provide EPS guidance. 

• FY26 Guidance: Revenue US$1.600–1.605bn, versus US$1.595–1.605bn previously. Adjusted EBITDA approximately US$65m, unchanged. The company did not provide EPS guidance. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: No dividend or new buyback announced. Cash and marketable securities US$854.4m. Nine-month operating cash outflow US$71.6m. The pending Personalis acquisition awaits a 30 November shareholder vote after regulatory review clearance. 

• Comment: The quarter supports improving operating momentum, with oncology testing and data licensing contributing together rather than growth depending on a single business. Higher gross profit and positive adjusted operating income show real operating leverage. However, the smaller GAAP loss benefited substantially from unrealised investment gains, while share compensation remains an economic cost despite its exclusion from adjusted results. Positive quarterly EBITDA also does not eliminate the nine-month operating cash deficit. Personalis could deepen the minimal residual disease offering, but absorbing its losses before broader reimbursement would complicate the path to sustainable cash generation. The shares closed at US$78.48 on 2 November, up 8.67%; that valuation already demands successful execution and leaves limited room for reimbursement or integration setbacks. A Neutral outlook balances attractive testing demand against financing and profitability risks. Watch oncology volumes and pricing, licensing collections, related-party receivables, MRD reimbursement, Personalis completion and whether the stronger fourth-quarter EBITDA outlook converts into cash rather than simply improving adjusted earnings. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$65–90. Neutral Outlook. 

Tempus AI (TEM) 

• 2026财年第三季度营收：营收4.11537亿美元，上年同期3.34206亿美元，同比增长23.1%；较市场预期4.0939亿美元高215万美元。诊断业务营收增长20%至3.035亿美元；数据及应用业务增长33%至1.081亿美元。肿瘤检测量增长32%。 毛利增长27%至2.667亿美元；MRD检测量约12,000次，增长300%。 

• 2026财年第三季度每股收益：调整后摊薄每股收益0.07美元，上年同期亏损0.11美元，改善0.18美元；较市场预期约亏损0.09美元高约0.16美元。GAAP摊薄每股亏损0.08美元，上年同期亏损0.46美元。净亏损1,490万美元，包含4,280万美元证券未实现收益；调整后EBITDA为2,560万美元，上年同期150万美元。 GAAP营业亏损由6,100万美元收窄至5,690万美元；调整后营业利润1,440万美元，上年同期亏损870万美元。 

• 2026财年第四季度指引：营收4.58亿–4.63亿美元；调整后EBITDA约3,400万美元。数据及应用业务营收增长约30%。公司未提供每股收益指引。 

• 2026财年指引：营收16.00亿–16.05亿美元，原指引15.95亿–16.05亿美元。调整后EBITDA约6,500万美元，维持不变。公司未提供每股收益指引。 

• 股息与回购：未宣布派息或新回购。现金及有价证券8.544亿美元。首九个月经营现金净流出7,160万美元。收购Personalis已通过监管审查，仍待11月30日股东表决。 

• 短评：本季反映经营动能改善，肿瘤检测与数据授权共同贡献增长，业务并非依赖单一引擎。毛利提升及调整后营业利润转正体现实际经营杠杆。不过，GAAP亏损收窄明显受惠于投资未实现收益，而股权薪酬虽被调整后指标剔除，仍具有经济成本。单季EBITDA转正也未消除首九个月经营现金流赤字。Personalis可加强微小残留病灶检测布局，但在更广泛医保支付落实前承担其亏损，将增加持续现金创造的难度。股价11月2日收盘报78.48美元，上涨8.67%；当前估值已要求较高执行成效，对医保支付或整合受挫的容忍度有限。中性展望权衡检测需求吸引力与资金及盈利风险。后续关注肿瘤检测量与价格、授权收入回款、关联方应收款、MRD医保支付、Personalis交割，以及较强第四季度EBITDA能否转化为现金，而不只是调整后盈利改善。 2026年第四季度建议交易区间：65–90美元。中性展望。 

The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) 

• 1Q27 Revenue: Revenue US$3.715bn versus US$3.481bn, +6.7% YoY; approximately US$65m above US$3.65bn consensus. Organic sales increased 6%, led by fragrance growth of 20%. 

• 1Q27 EPS: Adjusted diluted EPS US$0.72 versus US$0.32, +125.0% YoY; beat US$0.51 consensus by US$0.21. GAAP diluted EPS US$0.64 versus US$0.13. Adjusted operating margin rose to 12.1% from 7.3%. 

• 2Q27 Guidance: No standalone Q2 revenue or EPS guidance provided. Management expects travel-retail momentum to continue into Q2, with slower second-half growth as comparisons and launch timing become less favourable. 

• FY27 Guidance: Reported sales growth raised to 5–6.5% from 3–5%; organic growth to 4–5.5% from 3–5%. Adjusted EPS raised to US$3.20–3.45 from US$3.10–3.35; adjusted operating margin to 12.9–13.7% from 12.7–13.5%. Operating cash flow raised to US$1.4–1.5bn from US$1.3–1.4bn. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: Quarterly dividend US$0.35/share, payable 15 December, record date 30 November. Q1 dividends paid US$126m. Share repurchases remain suspended; no new buyback announced. 

• Comment: Estée Lauder’s recovery is broadening, but we retain a neutral outlook until sales momentum produces more consistent cash generation. Fragrance, mainland China and travel retail supported organic growth, while restructuring savings lifted operating profitability. Earnings quality nevertheless needs context: lower restructuring charges helped GAAP profit, and a lower adjusted tax rate amplified EPS growth. Free cash outflow narrowed to US$235m from US$436m, an improvement that still leaves the business consuming cash during its seasonal inventory build. The higher annual outlook supports confidence in execution, although management expects stronger first-half growth and more demanding comparisons later. Travel-retail shipments must translate into sustained consumer sell-through, particularly as launches normalise. Shares closed at US$104.77 on 2 November, down 4.08%. The decline tempers expectations, yet valuation still anticipates a meaningful profit recovery. Watch China demand, retail inventories, restructuring cash payments and whether gross-margin gains survive promotional competition. Better cash conversion alongside durable organic growth would strengthen the investment case. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$95–120. Neutral Outlook. 

雅诗兰黛 (EL) 

• 2027财年第一季度营收：收入37.15亿美元，去年34.81亿美元，同比增长6.7%；较36.5亿美元预期高约6,500万美元。有机销售增长6%，其中香水增长20%。 

• 2027财年第一季度每股收益：经调整摊薄每股盈利0.72美元，去年0.32美元，同比增长125.0%；较0.51美元预期高0.21美元。GAAP摊薄每股盈利0.64美元，去年0.13美元。经调整经营利润率由7.3%升至12.1%。 

• 2027财年第二季度指引：公司未提供独立第二季度收入或每股盈利指引。管理层预计旅游零售势头延续至第二季度；下半年因比较基数及新品推出时点而放缓。 

• 2027财年指引：报告销售增长指引由3–5%升至5–6.5%；有机增长由3–5%升至4–5.5%。经调整每股盈利由3.10–3.35美元升至3.20–3.45美元；经调整经营利润率由12.7–13.5%升至12.9–13.7%。经营现金流由13–14亿美元升至14–15亿美元。 

• 股息与回购：季度股息每股0.35美元，12月15日支付，登记日11月30日。第一季度支付股息1.26亿美元。股份回购仍暂停，未宣布新回购。 

• 短评：雅诗兰黛复苏范围扩大，但在销售势头转化为更稳定现金流前，我们维持中性。香水、中国内地及旅游零售支持有机增长，重组节省则提高经营盈利能力。不过，盈利质量仍需结合背景：重组费用下降支持GAAP利润，经调整税率降低亦放大每股盈利增幅。自由现金流出由4.36亿美元收窄至2.35亿美元，但季节性备货期间仍消耗现金。上调全年指引增强执行信心，惟管理层预计上半年增长更强，下半年比较基数更具挑战。旅游零售出货须转化为持续终端销售，尤其在新品推出节奏正常化后。股价于11月2日收报104.77美元，下跌4.08%。跌幅缓和市场预期，但估值仍反映明显盈利复苏。关注中国需求、零售库存、重组现金支出及毛利率改善能否抵御促销竞争。有机增长持续并伴随现金转化改善，才会强化投资吸引力。 2026年第四季度建议交易区间：95–120美元。中性展望。 

Marriott International Inc. (MAR) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: Revenue US$7.005bn versus US$6.489bn, +8.0% YoY; approximately US$85m above US$6.92bn consensus. Worldwide comparable RevPAR increased 6.5% in constant currency; net rooms grew 4.6%. 

• 3Q26 EPS: Adjusted diluted EPS US$3.02 versus US$2.47, +22.3% YoY; beat US$2.85 consensus by US$0.17. GAAP diluted EPS US$3.04 versus US$2.67. Adjusted EBITDA US$1.512bn, +12.1%. 

• 4Q26 Guidance: Worldwide RevPAR growth 4.5–5%; gross fee revenue US$1.604–1.612bn; adjusted diluted EPS US$3.14–3.21. No consolidated revenue guidance provided. 

• FY26 Guidance: RevPAR growth raised to 4.5–5% from 3–3.5%; adjusted EPS raised to US$12.07–12.14 from US$11.64–11.81. Gross fee revenue raised to US$6.137–6.145bn from US$6.025–6.055bn. Net rooms growth remains at the low end of 4.5–5%. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: Q3 repurchases US$1.3bn, or 3.5m shares. FY capital returns expected at least US$4.8bn. Latest quarterly dividend US$0.73/share paid 30 September; no new dividend announced with Q3 results. Quarter-end debt US$16.8bn; cash US$0.5bn. 

• Comment: Marriott’s stronger lodging demand and fee growth support earnings, but we retain a neutral outlook after the share-price rally. US and Canadian RevPAR accelerated, while franchise, management and credit-card fees broadened the revenue base. The asset-light model converts hotel demand into attractive recurring fees, although reported revenue includes substantial cost reimbursements that carry limited profit. Adjusted EPS also benefited from a smaller share count and a US$0.03 insurance recovery, so underlying earnings growth was less dramatic than the headline. Higher full-year guidance is encouraging, but room additions remain near the lower end of management’s range, making conversion of the development pipeline important. Shares closed at US$416.30 on 2 November, up 4.26%. Valuation leaves limited room for softer travel spending or slower fee growth. Buybacks support per-share earnings, while rising debt warrants discipline on capital returns. Watch US pricing, international demand, credit-card fee durability and hotel openings. Sustained RevPAR strength without weaker cash conversion would justify greater confidence. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$380–445. Neutral Outlook. 

万豪国际 (MAR) 

• 2026财年第三季度营收：收入70.05亿美元，去年64.89亿美元，同比增长8.0%；较69.2亿美元预期高约8,500万美元。固定汇率下全球可比每间可售客房收入增长6.5%；客房净增长4.6%。 

• 2026财年第三季度每股收益：经调整摊薄每股盈利3.02美元，去年2.47美元，同比增长22.3%；较2.85美元预期高0.17美元。GAAP摊薄每股盈利3.04美元，去年2.67美元。经调整EBITDA为15.12亿美元，增长12.1%。 

• 2026财年第四季度指引：全球每间可售客房收入增长4.5–5%；总费用收入16.04–16.12亿美元；经调整摊薄每股盈利3.14–3.21美元。未提供合并收入指引。 

• 2026财年指引：每间可售客房收入增长由3–3.5%升至4.5–5%；经调整每股盈利由11.64–11.81美元升至12.07–12.14美元。总费用收入由60.25–60.55亿美元升至61.37–61.45亿美元。客房净增长仍为4.5–5%区间低端。 

• 股息与回购：第三季度回购13亿美元，合350万股。全年资本回报预计至少48亿美元。最近季度股息每股0.73美元已于9月30日支付；第三季度业绩未宣布新股息。季末债务168亿美元，现金5亿美元。 

• 短评：万豪住宿需求及费用收入增长加强，但股价上涨后我们维持中性。美国及加拿大每间可售客房收入加速，特许经营、管理及信用卡费用扩大收入基础。轻资产模式将酒店需求转化为有吸引力的经常性费用，但报告收入包含大量利润贡献有限的成本报销。经调整每股盈利亦受较少流通股数及每股0.03美元保险赔偿支持，因此基础盈利增长没有表面数字般强劲。上调全年指引令人鼓舞，但新增客房仍接近指引低端，使开发项目转为开业客房尤为重要。股价于11月2日收报416.30美元，上涨4.26%。估值对旅游支出或费用增长放缓的容错空间有限。回购支持每股盈利，但债务上升要求资本回报保持纪律。关注美国房价、国际需求、信用卡费用持续性及酒店开业。每间可售客房收入持续强劲而现金转化不减弱，才可增强信心。 2026年第四季度建议交易区间：380–445美元。中性展望。 

Tower Semiconductor Ltd. (TSEM) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: Revenue US$526.161m versus US$395.667m, +33.0% YoY; approximately US$4.10m above US$522.06m consensus. Gross profit US$178.759m, +92.1%; silicon photonics revenue approximately US$240m. 

• 3Q26 EPS: Adjusted diluted EPS US$1.15 versus US$0.55, +109.1%; beat US$1.07 consensus by US$0.08. GAAP EPS US$1.05 versus US$0.47. Adjusted net profit US$131.298m excludes stock compensation and acquired-intangible amortisation. 

• 4Q26 Guidance: Revenue US$600m ±5%, or US$570–630m; midpoint +36% YoY and +14% sequentially. Silicon photonics targeted at a US$1.1bn annualised revenue rate. The company did not provide Q4 EPS guidance. 

• FY26 Guidance: Management expects approximately US$2.0bn revenue on achievement of Q4 midpoint guidance. The company did not provide full-year EPS guidance. Management targets sequential revenue and margin growth entering 2027, without typical Q1 seasonality. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: No dividend or new buyback announced in the results. Q3 operating cash flow US$185m includes US$23m customer advances; net equipment investment US$191m, leaving company-defined free cash flow approximately negative US$6m. 

• Comment: Tower’s silicon photonics growth and improving margins support a positive outlook, although cash demands remain substantial. AI connectivity is translating into revenue and operating profit rather than bookings alone. Higher utilisation and product mix expand profitability, while the modest gap between GAAP and adjusted EPS mainly reflects compensation and amortisation. Customer commitments extend visibility through 2029, but some agreements remain under negotiation and capacity must be commissioned successfully. Operating cash flow also includes customer advances, which create future delivery obligations; capital spending currently absorbs the cash generated. The Japan expansion could support further growth, but introduces execution, yield and funding risks before returns mature. Shares closed at US$155.32 on 2 November, down 6.70%. The decline improves valuation balance, yet the stock still requires substantial earnings expansion. Watch silicon photonics shipments, contracted capacity conversion, utilisation, Japanese commissioning and cash flow excluding advances. Profitable capacity additions would reinforce the outlook; shipment delays or weaker customer commitments would challenge it. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$135–185. Positive Outlook. 

高塔半导体 (TSEM) 

• 2026财年第三季度营收：收入5.26161亿美元，去年3.95667亿美元，同比增长33.0%；较5.2206亿美元预期高约410万美元。毛利润1.78759亿美元，增长92.1%；硅光收入约2.40亿美元。 

• 2026财年第三季度每股收益：经调整摊薄每股盈利1.15美元，去年0.55美元，增长109.1%；较1.07美元预期高0.08美元。GAAP每股盈利1.05美元，去年0.47美元。经调整净利润1.31298亿美元，剔除股权薪酬及收购无形资产摊销。 

• 2026财年第四季度指引：收入6亿美元，上下浮动5%，即5.70亿至6.30亿美元；中点同比增长36%、环比增长14%。硅光目标年化收入速度11亿美元。公司未提供第四季度每股盈利指引。 

• 2026财年指引：若达到第四季度指引中点，管理层预计全年收入约20亿美元。公司未提供全年每股盈利指引。管理层目标是在进入2027年时收入及利润率环比增长，避免通常第一季度的季节性下滑。 

• 股息与回购：业绩公告未宣布股息或新回购。第三季度经营现金流1.85亿美元，包括客户预付款2,300万美元；净设备投资1.91亿美元，公司定义自由现金流约为负600万美元。 

• 短评：高塔硅光增长及利润率改善支持正面前景，惟现金需求仍大。AI互连正转化为收入及经营利润，而非仅有订单。利用率提升及产品结构改善扩大盈利能力；GAAP与经调整每股盈利差额较小，主要反映薪酬及摊销。客户承诺延长能见度至2029年，但部分协议仍在谈判，产能亦须成功调试。经营现金流包含客户预付款，带来未来交付责任；当前资本开支吸收经营产生的现金。日本扩产可支持进一步增长，但回报成熟前存在执行、良率及融资风险。股价于11月2日收报155.32美元，下跌6.70%。调整改善估值平衡，惟股价仍要求盈利显著扩大。应关注硅光出货、合约产能转化、利用率、日本项目调试及剔除预付款后的现金流。有利润的新增产能将强化前景；出货延误或客户承诺转弱则会挑战观点。 2026年第四季度建议交易区间：135–185美元。正面前景。 

Apple Inc. (AAPL) 

• 4Q26 Revenue: Revenue US$114.477bn versus US$102.466bn, +11.7% YoY; approximately US$1.13bn above US$113.35bn consensus. iPhone revenue increased 17.5% to US$57.583bn; Services increased 9.8% to US$31.573bn. 

• 4Q26 EPS: GAAP diluted EPS US$2.10 versus US$1.85, +13.5% YoY; beat US$1.99 consensus by US$0.11. EPS included a US$0.05 tariff-refund benefit. Gross margin 47.9% included approximately one percentage point from tariff refunds. 

• 1Q27 Guidance: December-quarter revenue growth 7–10% YoY; Services growth 8–9%; gross margin 45–46%; operating expenses US$20.4–20.8bn. No EPS guidance provided. Management highlighted Mac and iPad supply constraints and uncertain iPhone Duo production availability. 

• FY27 Guidance: No FY27 revenue or EPS guidance provided. Management supplied December-quarter expectations rather than a full-year numerical outlook; investment in artificial intelligence and research continues. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: Quarterly dividend US$0.27/share, payable 16 November, record date 12 November. Q4 buybacks US$24bn; dividends and equivalents US$3.9bn. Operating cash flow US$28.1bn. Quarter-end cash and marketable securities US$137bn, against debt of US$80bn. 

• Comment: Apple delivered strong iPhone demand and another Services record, but the holiday outlook keeps our stance neutral. Greater China and Mac growth broadened the quarter’s recovery, while the installed base supports future service spending. Earnings quality requires an adjustment in interpretation: tariff refunds added US$0.05 to EPS and approximately one percentage point to gross margin. The December margin outlook therefore signals pressure beyond the removal of that benefit, with higher memory costs and investment weighing on profitability. Services growth is also expected to moderate, limiting the usual cushion against hardware volatility. Shares were US$329.03 in post-market trading on 2 November, down 2.75% from the close. That reaction reflects demanding expectations despite the earnings beat. Valuation still requires sustained product momentum and credible returns on artificial-intelligence spending. Watch iPhone Duo availability, Mac and iPad supply, memory pricing, Services conversion and cash generation. Strong repurchases support EPS, but durable operating growth matters more than financial support for a positive reassessment. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$300–355. Neutral Outlook. 

苹果 (AAPL) 

• 2026财年第四季度营收：收入1,144.77亿美元，去年1,024.66亿美元，同比增长11.7%；较1,133.5亿美元预期高约11.3亿美元。iPhone收入增长17.5%至575.83亿美元；服务增长9.8%至315.73亿美元。 

• 2026财年第四季度每股收益：GAAP摊薄每股盈利2.10美元，去年1.85美元，同比增长13.5%；较1.99美元预期高0.11美元。其中关税退款贡献每股0.05美元。毛利率47.9%，包括关税退款约一个百分点贡献。 

• 2027财年第一季度指引：12月季度收入同比增长7–10%；服务增长8–9%；毛利率45–46%；经营费用204–208亿美元。未提供每股盈利指引。管理层指出Mac及iPad供应受限，iPhone Duo产量供应亦存在不确定性。 

• 2027财年指引：未提供FY27收入或每股盈利指引。管理层仅提供12月季度预期，未提供全年量化展望；持续投资人工智能及研发。 

• 股息与回购：季度股息每股0.27美元，11月16日支付，登记日11月12日。第四季度回购240亿美元；股息及等价物39亿美元。经营现金流281亿美元。季末现金及有价证券1,370亿美元，债务800亿美元。 

• 短评：苹果iPhone需求强劲，服务收入再创新高，但假日季度展望令我们维持中性。大中华区及Mac增长扩大本季复苏范围，设备安装基础亦支持未来服务消费。解读盈利质量时须注意，关税退款贡献每股盈利0.05美元及约一个百分点毛利率。因此，12月季度毛利率指引反映的压力超出该一次性收益消退，内存成本及投资增加均压抑盈利能力。服务增长亦预计放缓，削弱其对硬件波动的缓冲。股价于11月2日盘后报329.03美元，较收盘下跌2.75%，反映即使盈利超预期，市场要求仍高。估值仍需要持续产品增长及可信的人工智能投资回报支持。关注iPhone Duo供应、Mac及iPad供给、内存价格、服务转化及现金流。大额回购支持每股盈利，但如要转为正面，更重要的是持续经营增长。 2026年第四季度建议交易区间：300–355美元。中性展望。 

Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: Revenue US$2.3134bn versus US$1.1811bn, +95.9% YoY; beat US$2.18bn consensus by approximately US$133.4m. U.S. commercial revenue rose 148% to US$984m; U.S. government revenue increased 96% to US$953m. U.S. revenue increased 119% to US$1.937bn; net dollar retention reached 165%. U.S. commercial remaining deal value increased 79% to US$6.517bn, including contractual options. 

• 3Q26 EPS: Adjusted diluted EPS US$0.44 versus US$0.21, +109.5%; beat US$0.41 consensus by US$0.03. GAAP diluted EPS US$0.44 versus US$0.18, +144.4%. GAAP operating margin 47%; adjusted operating margin 62%. Stock compensation US$318.9m; the GAAP tax provision was only US$13.6m. GAAP operating income US$1.085bn; adjusted operating income US$1.427bn. 

• 4Q26 Guidance: Revenue US$2.649–2.653bn; adjusted operating income US$1.640–1.644bn. The company did not provide EPS guidance. 

• FY26 Guidance: Revenue raised to US$8.530–8.534bn from US$8.150–8.158bn. Adjusted operating income raised to US$5.245–5.249bn from US$4.889–4.897bn; adjusted free cash flow raised to US$4.8–5.0bn from US$4.5–4.7bn. No EPS guidance provided. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: No dividend or new buyback announced in the results release. Cash and U.S. Treasury securities US$10.4bn. Quarterly operating cash flow US$1.205bn; adjusted free cash flow US$1.216bn. Total contract value signed US$2.918bn, +6%. U.S. commercial total contract value increased 11% to US$1.463bn. 

• Comment: Palantir delivered exceptional growth with substantial operating leverage, and U.S. commercial revenue now exceeds U.S. government revenue. That broadening customer base strengthens the case that AI deployment is translating into material spending rather than remaining an experimental budget. Strong operating cash flow also supports the quality of the operating improvement. Nevertheless, adjusted profitability excludes substantial share compensation, and the unusually low GAAP tax provision helped reported EPS. Contract momentum deserves closer scrutiny: total contract value increased only 6%, while U.S. commercial contract value rose 11%, considerably below recognised revenue growth. Quarterly bookings are uneven, so this is a monitoring point rather than evidence that demand has reversed; contractual options and termination rights also limit backlog certainty. Shares traded at US$173.02 post-market on 2 November, down 2.98% from the close despite the beat and guidance increase. A Neutral outlook reflects demanding valuation. Watch renewals, new bookings, remaining performance obligations, collections and whether deployment efficiency sustains margins as growth comparisons become harder. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$150–205. Neutral Outlook. 

帕兰提尔科技 (PLTR) 

• 2026财年第三季度营收：营收23.134亿美元，上年同期11.811亿美元，同比增长95.9%；较市场预期21.8亿美元高约1.334亿美元。美国商业营收增长148%至9.84亿美元；美国政府营收增长96%至9.53亿美元。 美国营收增长119%至19.37亿美元；净收入留存率165%。美国商业剩余交易价值增长79%至65.17亿美元，包含合同选择权。 

• 2026财年第三季度每股收益：调整后摊薄每股收益0.44美元，上年同期0.21美元，同比增长109.5%；较市场预期0.41美元高0.03美元。GAAP摊薄每股收益0.44美元，上年同期0.18美元，增长144.4%。GAAP营业利润率47%，调整后营业利润率62%。股权薪酬3.189亿美元；GAAP所得税费用仅1,360万美元。 GAAP营业利润10.85亿美元；调整后营业利润14.27亿美元。 

• 2026财年第四季度指引：营收26.49亿–26.53亿美元；调整后营业利润16.40亿–16.44亿美元。公司未提供每股收益指引。 

• 2026财年指引：营收由81.50亿–81.58亿美元上调至85.30亿–85.34亿美元。调整后营业利润由48.89亿–48.97亿美元上调至52.45亿–52.49亿美元；调整后自由现金流由45亿–47亿美元上调至48亿–50亿美元。未提供每股收益指引。 

• 股息与回购：业绩公告未宣布派息或新回购。现金及美国国债104亿美元。单季经营现金流12.05亿美元；调整后自由现金流12.16亿美元。签约总合同价值29.18亿美元，同比增长6%。 美国商业总合同价值增长11%至14.63亿美元。 

• 短评：Palantir实现出色增长及显著经营杠杆，美国商业营收现已超过美国政府营收。客户结构拓宽，支持AI部署正转化为实质支出、而不只是试验预算的判断。强劲经营现金流也支持经营改善的质量。不过，调整后盈利剔除了大量股权薪酬，异常低的GAAP所得税费用亦推高报告每股收益。合同动能需进一步观察：总合同价值仅增长6%，美国商业合同价值增长11%，明显低于已确认营收增长。季度签约存在波动，因此这是观察重点，而非需求已经逆转的证据；合同选择权及终止权也降低订单储备的确定性。尽管业绩超预期并上调指引，股价11月2日盘后报173.02美元，较收盘下跌2.98%。中性展望反映估值要求较高。关注续约、新签订单、剩余履约义务、回款，以及随着同比基数提高，部署效率能否维持利润率。 2026年第四季度建议交易区间：150–205美元。中性展望。 

Aehr Test Systems Inc. (AEHR) 

• 1Q27 Revenue: Revenue US$33.007m versus US$10.969m, +200.9% YoY; approximately US$5.935m above US$27.072m consensus. Bookings US$46.7m; effective backlog US$109.3m as of 1 November, including orders after quarter-end. 

• 1Q27 EPS: Non-GAAP diluted EPS US$0.28 versus US$0.01, up US$0.27; beat US$0.11 consensus by US$0.17. GAAP EPS US$0.21 versus a US$0.07 loss. Non-GAAP profit excludes stock compensation and acquisition adjustments; tax benefits also supported earnings. 

• 2Q27 Guidance: The company did not provide a standalone Q2 revenue or EPS range. Management expects sequential revenue growth; heavier Sonoma system mix should lower Q2 gross margin from Q1’s 48.5% non-GAAP level. 

• FY27 Guidance: Revenue raised to US$150m from US$130–150m; non-GAAP net income now at least 20% of revenue versus 18–22% previously. Management expects full-year non-GAAP gross margin around 48.5%, ±0.5 percentage points. No full-year EPS range provided. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: No dividend or new buyback announced in the results. Cash including restricted balances US$105.1m versus US$116.5m at fiscal year-end; operating cash outflow US$3.1m. Management said the company remains debt-free. 

• Comment: Aehr’s AI testing growth and higher annual outlook improve the business, but valuation and cash conversion keep our view neutral. Bookings above revenue and a larger backlog support shipment visibility. Proprietary consumables add recurring demand as customers introduce new devices, although system orders and qualifications remain uneven. The proposed Taiwanese production evaluation is a potentially important opportunity, but a purchase for validation does not guarantee a subsequent high-volume rollout. Profit quality is improving with scale, yet adjusted EPS removes compensation and acquisition costs and also benefits from discrete tax items. Operating cash outflow despite reported profit shows the cost of building inventory for customer ramps. Strong liquidity reduces funding pressure without eliminating execution risk. Shares traded at US$59.00 post-market on 2 November, up 14.63% from the close. That rebound already rewards stronger growth and leaves little tolerance for delayed orders. Watch customer acceptance, backlog conversion, gross-margin mix, receivables and cash generation. More customers reaching sustained production would make the earnings base more durable. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$45–72. Neutral Outlook. 

Aehr测试系统 (AEHR) 

• 2027财年第一季度营收：收入3,300.7万美元，去年1,096.9万美元，同比增长200.9%；较2,707.2万美元预期高约593.5万美元。订单4,670万美元；截至11月1日有效在手订单1.093亿美元，包括季后新增订单。 

• 2027财年第一季度每股收益：非GAAP摊薄每股盈利0.28美元，去年0.01美元，增加0.27美元；较0.11美元预期高0.17美元。GAAP每股盈利0.21美元，去年每股亏损0.07美元。非GAAP利润剔除股权薪酬及收购调整；税收利好亦支持盈利。 

• 2027财年第二季度指引：公司未提供独立第二季度收入或每股盈利区间。管理层预计收入环比增长；Sonoma系统占比较高，应使第二季度毛利率低于第一季度非GAAP的48.5%。 

• 2027财年指引：收入由1.30亿至1.50亿美元上调至1.50亿美元；非GAAP净利润现至少占收入20%，此前为18%至22%。管理层预计全年非GAAP毛利率约48.5%，上下浮动0.5个百分点。未提供全年每股盈利区间。 

• 股息与回购：业绩公告未宣布股息或新回购。含受限资金的现金1.051亿美元，财年末1.165亿美元；经营现金流出310万美元。管理层表示公司仍无债务。 

• 短评：Aehr的AI测试增长及全年前景上调改善业务，但估值与现金转化使我们维持中性。订单高于收入及在手订单增加，支持出货能见度。客户推出新器件时，专有耗材增加重复需求，不过系统订单及认证仍不均衡。计划中的台湾生产评估是重要潜在机会，但为验证而购买系统，并不保证后续大规模量产部署。规模扩大改善盈利质量，惟经调整每股盈利剔除薪酬及收购成本，亦受惠于离散税务项目。报告盈利却出现经营现金流出，显示为客户扩产准备库存的成本。充足流动性减少融资压力，但无法消除执行风险。股价于11月2日盘后报59.00美元，较收盘价上涨14.63%。反弹已反映较强增长，对订单延误的容忍度有限。应关注客户验收、订单转化、毛利率结构、应收账款及现金创造。更多客户进入持续生产，将提高盈利基础的持久性。 2026年第四季度建议交易区间：45–72美元。中性前景。 

Fabrinet (FN) 

• 1Q27 Revenue: Revenue US$1.4745bn versus US$978.1m, +50.7% YoY; approximately US$70.3m above US$1.4042bn consensus. Data-center revenue US$777m, +78% YoY. 

• 1Q27 EPS: Non-GAAP diluted EPS US$4.34 versus US$2.92, +48.6%; beat US$4.19 consensus by US$0.15. GAAP EPS US$2.86 versus US$2.66, +7.5%. Adjustments exclude US$0.59/share equity-investment loss and US$0.55 Pillar Two tax provision. 

• 2Q27 Guidance: Revenue US$1.600–1.650bn; non-GAAP diluted EPS US$4.77–4.92; GAAP EPS US$3.81–3.96, based on approximately 36.2m diluted shares. First guidance for the quarter ending 25 December 2026. 

• FY27 Guidance: The company did not provide full-year revenue or EPS guidance. Normal capex runs around 5% of revenue, excluding large capacity additions; additional expansion spending expected. Building 10 completion targeted for January 2027, followed by Building 11 construction. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: Q1 repurchases US$29.1m. Added US$103m to the programme, bringing remaining authorisation to US$200m and cumulative authorisation to US$637.3m. No dividend announced. Operating cash flow US$21.3m; capex US$158.7m; free cash outflow US$137.4m. 

• Comment: Fabrinet’s broad growth and stronger December-quarter outlook support a positive view, although cash conversion requires scrutiny. Data-center interconnect, transceivers and high-performance computing extend demand beyond one product programme. Operating leverage lifted adjusted operating margin despite a lower gross margin. The gap between GAAP and adjusted EPS mainly reflects an investment markdown and Pillar Two tax provision; the latter could remain economically relevant until offsetting Thai credits are implemented. Working-capital investment reduced operating cash flow, while capacity spending drove a substantial cash outflow. Expansion can support future orders, but available floor space does not guarantee profitable utilisation. Receivables, inventory and component supply therefore matter alongside revenue. Shares traded at US$351.00 post-market on 2 November, up 11.53% from the close. The rebound recognises improving demand, while valuation still depends on sustained execution and cash recovery. Watch new programme ramps, Building 10 commissioning, customer concentration, gross margins and tax-credit implementation. Continued earnings growth with improving cash conversion would reinforce the outlook. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$310–420. Positive Outlook. 

Fabrinet (FN) 

• 2027财年第一季度营收：收入14.745亿美元，去年9.781亿美元，同比增长50.7%；较14.042亿美元预期高约7,030万美元。数据中心收入7.77亿美元，同比增长78%。 

• 2027财年第一季度每股收益：非GAAP摊薄每股盈利4.34美元，去年2.92美元，增长48.6%；较4.19美元预期高0.15美元。GAAP每股盈利2.86美元，去年2.66美元，增长7.5%；经调整指标剔除每股0.59美元股权投资损失及0.55美元Pillar Two税项拨备。 

• 2027财年第二季度指引：收入16.00亿至16.50亿美元；非GAAP摊薄每股盈利4.77至4.92美元；GAAP每股盈利3.81至3.96美元，按约3,620万摊薄股数。此为截至2026年12月25日季度的首次指引。 

• 2027财年指引：公司未提供全年收入或每股盈利指引。正常资本开支约为收入5%，不含大型扩产项目；预计另有扩产开支。Building 10计划2027年1月完工，其后开始建设Building 11。 

• 股息与回购：第一季度回购2,910万美元。回购计划增加1.03亿美元，使剩余授权达2亿美元、累计授权达6.373亿美元。未宣布股息。经营现金流2,130万美元；资本开支1.587亿美元；自由现金流出1.374亿美元。 

• 短评：Fabrinet广泛增长及十二月季度前景增强，支持正面观点，但现金转化仍需审视。数据中心互连、收发器及高性能计算，使需求超越单一产品计划。尽管毛利率下降，经营杠杆仍提升经调整经营利润率。GAAP与经调整每股盈利差距主要来自投资减值及Pillar Two税项拨备；泰国抵免落实前，后者仍可能具有实际经济影响。营运资金投入减少经营现金流，扩产开支则导致较大现金流出。扩张可支持未来订单，但厂房空间并不保证有利润的利用率。因此，应同时关注应收款、库存、零部件供应及收入。股价于11月2日盘后报351.00美元，较收盘价上涨11.53%。反弹反映需求改善，但估值仍取决于持续执行及现金恢复。应关注新项目爬坡、Building 10调试、客户集中度、毛利率及税收抵免落实。盈利持续增长并伴随现金转化改善，将强化前景。 2026年第四季度建议交易区间：310–420美元。正面前景。 

ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: Revenue US$1.7223bn versus US$1.5509bn, +11.1% YoY; approximately US$12.3m above US$1.71bn consensus. AI data-centre revenue US$180m, +175% YoY; industrial revenue US$467m, +10% sequentially. 

• 3Q26 EPS: Non-GAAP diluted EPS US$0.90 versus US$0.63, +42.9%; beat US$0.88 consensus by US$0.02. GAAP EPS US$0.79 versus US$0.63. Non-GAAP gross margin 41.2%, up 190 basis points sequentially; operating margin 23.2%. 

• 4Q26 Guidance: Revenue US$1.715–1.815bn; non-GAAP EPS US$0.95–1.07 and gross margin 41.5–43.5%. GAAP EPS US$0.88–1.00. Management expects automotive revenue to decline by high single digits sequentially as supply shifts toward AI and industrial applications. 

• FY26 Guidance: The company did not provide full-year revenue or EPS guidance. The separate 2030 AI data-centre revenue target increased by US$500m to over US$3bn following the Ferric acquisition agreement; this is a long-term target. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: No dividend announced. Q3 repurchases US$19.9m; nine-month repurchases US$710.4m. Q3 operating cash flow US$516.4m; free cash flow approximately US$489m. Proposed Synaptics acquisition consideration revised to approximately US$5.7bn cash from US$7bn in stock. 

• Comment: Onsemi’s AI power demand, margin recovery and cash generation improve earnings visibility, but automotive weakness and acquisitions keep our outlook neutral. Revenue growth is translating into operating leverage, and the December margin outlook extends the recovery. AI remains smaller than automotive, so its rapid growth does not remove exposure to vehicle production and inventory cycles. Adjusted earnings exclude restructuring, amortisation and deal costs, while the share-count treatment of convertible-note hedges also affects comparability with GAAP EPS. Strong free cash flow supports investment, but current low capital spending should not be mistaken for a permanent cash-conversion rate. Ferric expands processor power-delivery capability; the revised cash-funded Synaptics deal adds integration and balance-sheet demands. Shares traded at US$70.45 post-market on 2 November, up 0.48% from the close. Valuation is more balanced after recent weakness, although a durable recovery still needs broader end-market support. Watch automotive shipments, industrial orders, AI design-win conversion, factory utilisation and acquisition funding. Sustained margin expansion without weakening cash generation would support a more positive stance. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$62–82. Neutral Outlook. 

安森美半导体 (ON) 

• 2026财年第三季度营收：收入17.223亿美元，去年15.509亿美元，同比增长11.1%；较17.1亿美元预期高约1,230万美元。AI数据中心收入1.80亿美元，同比增长175%；工业收入4.67亿美元，环比增长10%。 

• 2026财年第三季度每股收益：非GAAP摊薄每股盈利0.90美元，去年0.63美元，增长42.9%；较0.88美元预期高0.02美元。GAAP每股盈利0.79美元，去年0.63美元。非GAAP毛利率41.2%，环比升190个基点；经营利润率23.2%。 

• 2026财年第四季度指引：收入17.15亿至18.15亿美元；非GAAP每股盈利0.95至1.07美元，毛利率41.5%至43.5%。GAAP每股盈利0.88至1.00美元。随着供应转向AI及工业应用，管理层预计汽车收入环比下降较高个位数。 

• 2026财年指引：公司未提供全年收入或每股盈利指引。签订Ferric收购协议后，独立的2030年AI数据中心收入目标增加5亿美元至超过30亿美元；此为长期目标。 

• 股息与回购：未宣布股息。第三季度回购1,990万美元，首九个月回购7.104亿美元。季度经营现金流5.164亿美元，自由现金流约4.89亿美元。拟议Synaptics收购对价由70亿美元股票改为约57亿美元现金。 

• 短评：安森美AI电源需求、利润率恢复及现金创造改善盈利能见度，但汽车疲弱及收购使我们维持中性。收入增长正转化为经营杠杆，十二月季度利润率前景延续复苏。AI规模仍小于汽车，因此快速增长无法消除汽车生产及库存周期敞口。经调整盈利剔除重组、摊销及交易成本，而可转债对冲的股数处理亦影响与GAAP每股盈利的可比性。强劲自由现金流支持投资，但当前较低资本开支不应视为永久现金转化率。Ferric拓展处理器供电能力；改以现金支付的Synaptics交易增加整合及资产负债表需求。股价于11月2日盘后报70.45美元，较收盘价上涨0.48%。近期转弱使估值更平衡，惟持久复苏仍需更广泛终端市场支持。应关注汽车出货、工业订单、AI设计订单转化、工厂利用率及收购融资。利润率持续扩大同时现金创造不转弱，将支持更正面观点。 2026年第四季度建议交易区间：62–82美元。中性前景。 

Roku, Inc. (ROKU) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: Revenue US$1.502bn versus US$1.2106bn, +24.1% YoY; beat US$1.41bn consensus by US$92m. Platform revenue increased 23% to US$1.3083bn; devices increased 33% to US$193.7m. Streaming hours rose 9% to 39.9bn. Advertising revenue US$727.4m and subscription revenue US$580.9m, both up 23%. 

• 3Q26 EPS: GAAP diluted EPS US$1.20 versus US$0.16, +650%; beat US$0.55 consensus by US$0.65. Net income US$183.3m versus US$24.8m. Operating income US$164.1m included a US$22.3m lease-termination gain and US$13.6m merger costs. Adjusted EBITDA US$248.8m versus US$116.9m. Device gross loss widened to US$48.6m from US$22.9m. Income tax expense declined to US$4.0m from US$13.2m despite higher pretax profit. 

• 4Q26 Guidance: The company did not provide Q4 revenue or EPS guidance because of the pending FOX merger. No quarterly earnings call was held. 

• FY26 Guidance: No updated full-year revenue or EPS guidance provided. Management said Roku remains on track for the second-half 2026 forecast contained in the merger proxy; this does not constitute a new numerical guidance range. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: No dividend. Buybacks suspended following the merger agreement; none in Q3, versus US$162.7m year to date. Cash and short-term investments US$2.721bn; trailing free cash flow US$795.7m. Proposed consideration per Roku share: US$96 cash plus 0.9693 FOX Class A shares, subject to closing conditions. 

• Comment: Platform monetisation strengthened as advertising and subscription revenue both increased 23%, outpacing streaming-hour growth. This supports improving revenue productivity rather than merely greater viewing. Operating profit also increased substantially, although the lease-termination gain and lower tax expense helped GAAP earnings. Meanwhile, device gross losses widened as memory costs rose, illustrating the continuing subsidy required to build the platform. Strong trailing free cash flow provides a useful counterweight, but share compensation remains relevant when assessing shareholder returns. The central valuation consideration is now the pending FOX transaction: its cash-and-stock structure makes Roku sensitive to FOX shares and completion risk, alongside standalone earnings. Roku traded at US$156.02 post-market on 2 November, up 0.32% from the close. A Neutral outlook reflects the balance between improving operations and transaction uncertainty. Watch regulatory approvals, FOX share performance, advertising demand, device input costs and platform margins. The absence of a quarterly call and fresh numerical guidance limits visibility into management’s near-term assumptions while the merger proceeds. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$145–170. Neutral Outlook. 

Roku (ROKU) 

• 2026财年第三季度营收：营收15.02亿美元，上年同期12.106亿美元，同比增长24.1%；较市场预期14.1亿美元高9,200万美元。平台营收增长23%至13.083亿美元；设备营收增长33%至1.937亿美元。流媒体观看时数增长9%至399亿小时。 广告营收7.274亿美元，订阅营收5.809亿美元，均增长23%。 

• 2026财年第三季度每股收益：GAAP摊薄每股收益1.20美元，上年同期0.16美元，同比增长650%；较市场预期0.55美元高0.65美元。净利润1.833亿美元，上年同期2,480万美元。营业利润1.641亿美元，包含2,230万美元租约终止收益及1,360万美元合并费用。调整后EBITDA为2.488亿美元，上年同期1.169亿美元。 设备毛亏损由2,290万美元扩大至4,860万美元。尽管税前利润上升，所得税费用由1,320万美元降至400万美元。 

• 2026财年第四季度指引：由于与FOX的合并交易尚待完成，公司未提供第四季度营收或每股收益指引，亦未举行季度业绩电话会议。 

• 2026财年指引：未提供更新的全年营收或每股收益指引。管理层表示，仍有望达到合并委托书所载的2026年下半年预测；这不构成新的量化指引区间。 

• 股息与回购：不派息。合并协议签订后暂停回购；第三季度无回购，年初至今回购1.627亿美元。现金及短期投资27.21亿美元；过去十二个月自由现金流7.957亿美元。拟议交易对价为每股Roku获96美元现金及0.9693股FOX A类股份，须满足交割条件。 

• 短评：平台变现能力增强，广告及订阅营收均增长23%，快于观看时数增长，反映单位观看活动的收入效率改善，而非单纯依靠使用量增加。营业利润亦明显提高，但租约终止收益及较低税费有助GAAP盈利。同时，存储器成本上涨令设备毛亏损扩大，显示拓展平台仍需持续补贴。强劲的过去十二个月自由现金流形成支持，但评估股东回报时仍需考虑股权薪酬。目前估值的核心是待完成的FOX交易：现金加股票结构使Roku同时受FOX股价、交割风险及自身业绩影响。股价11月2日盘后报156.02美元，较收盘上涨0.32%。中性展望权衡经营改善与交易不确定性。关注监管批准、FOX股价表现、广告需求、设备投入成本及平台利润率。交易推进期间，缺少季度电话会议及新量化指引，限制了对管理层短期假设的了解。 2026年第四季度建议交易区间：145–170美元。中性展望。