Technical Analysis: 3 August 2026

ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation (XOM) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $114.5B, +42% YoY, beat estimates by $4.5B 

• 2Q26 Non-GAAP EPS:  $3.52, miss estimates by $0.11 

• FY26 Guidance: Management expects lower refinery maintenance in the second half of 2026 and continued production growth from Guyana, while the fifth FPSO is scheduled to begin production in 4Q26. Permian production reached a record 1.8M boe/d during the quarter. 

• Dividends/Share Buybacks: Returned US$9.4B to shareholders during the quarter, including US$4.3B in dividends and US$5.1B of share repurchases. The company remains on track to complete US$20B of buybacks during FY26 

• Comment: This was an exceptionally strong operating quarter despite the slight EPS miss. High crude prices during the Iran conflict, stronger refining margins and record Permian production lifted earnings to the highest level in four years. Operating cash flow reached US$23.6B and free cash flow totaled US$17.2B, demonstrating the strength of Exxon’s integrated portfolio. The principal concern is sustainability rather than execution. Roughly 750,000 boe/d of Middle East production remains exposed if regional disruptions persist, while the recent earnings surge was heavily supported by geopolitical oil-price strength that may not continue. Investors also questioned whether the current valuation already reflects peak-cycle profitability, contributing to a post-earnings share-price decline of roughly 1%–2% despite record profits. The key variables to monitor are Brent crude prices, Guyana production ramp-up, Permian execution, refining margins, LNG project progress and continued balance-sheet improvement. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $130 to $200. Neutral Outlook. 

 

ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation（XOM)  

• 26财年第二季度营收：1145亿美元，同比增长42%，大幅超出预期45亿美元 

• •26财年第二季度非公认会计准则每股收益：3.52美元，略低于预期0.11美元 

• 26财年全年指引：预计下半年炼油厂维护减少，圭亚那产量持续增长（第五艘FPSO将于Q4投产）；二叠纪盆地产量创纪录达180万桶油当量/日 

• 股息与回购：本季度向股东返还94亿美元（含43亿股息 + 51亿回购）；全年200亿美元回购计划按进度推进 

• 短评：本季度运营表现极为强劲，创下四年来的最高盈利水平。尽管EPS小幅不及预期，但核心驱动力清晰：伊朗冲突推升原油价格、炼油利润率走强、二叠纪产量创新高、圭亚那项目稳步推进，共同推动经营性现金流达236亿美元，自由现金流高达172亿美元，凸显其一体化能源模式在高波动环境中的强大韧性。然而，市场关注点已从“执行能力”转向“盈利可持续性”：当前利润高度依赖地缘政治驱动的油价飙升（布伦特一度突破90美元/桶），若中东局势缓和，油价可能回落；公司仍有约75万桶/日的中东产量暴露于区域风险之下；投资者担忧当前估值已反映“周期顶点”预期，限制进一步上行空间。财报后股价微跌1%–2%，反映市场在纪录利润下仍保持谨慎——**“好业绩，但难持续”**成为主导逻辑。后续关键变量包括：（1）布伦特原油价格走势及地缘风险溢价；（2）圭亚那深水项目产能爬坡节奏（长期低成本增长引擎）；（3）二叠纪盆地成本控制与资本效率；（4）炼油与化工板块利润率能否维持高位；（5）LNG项目进展及全球天然气供需平衡。ExxonMobil凭借其规模、低成本资源组合与强劲现金流，在能源转型过渡期仍具显著竞争优势。短期虽受周期波动影响，但长期战略聚焦低碳LNG与碳捕集，提供一定估值支撑。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：130美元至200美元。中性前景。 

 

Cameco Corporation (CCJ) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $814M, -7.2% YoY, in-line with estimates 

• 2Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.18, miss estimates by $0.20 

• FY26 Guidance: Management maintained 2026 uranium production guidance at 19.5–21.5 million pounds (Cameco’s share) despite temporary operational disruptions. The company highlighted decade-high long-term uranium prices, average annual contracted deliveries of more than 28 million pounds over the next five years, and 91 AP1000 reactor opportunities globally through Westinghouse. Cost guidance was increased mainly because of foreign-exchange impacts. 

• Comment: This was a weak quarter on headline financials but a constructive quarter strategically. Revenue and EPS both missed expectations due to difficult comparisons with last year’s Westinghouse contribution and temporary operational disruptions at Key Lake, McArthur River and Cigar Lake. However, realized uranium prices continued to improve, and management reiterated that these issues do not alter full-year production expectations. The key positive remains the structural uranium market. Long-term uranium prices have reached decade highs, contracting activity continues to strengthen, and Cameco remains one of the few Tier-1 producers with significant uncommitted production. Westinghouse also provides meaningful long-term optionality through global reactor construction, particularly the expanding AP1000 pipeline. Investors largely looked through the quarterly miss, with the shares rising about 4% pre-market following the release. The principal variables to monitor are uranium contract pricing, production execution in Saskatchewan, Westinghouse earnings contribution, and the pace of global nuclear buildouts. The long-term nuclear demand backdrop remains highly favorable, although near-term earnings can remain volatile because of shipment timing and equity-accounting contributions. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $80 to $110. Positive Outlook. 

 

Cameco Corporation（CCJ) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：8.14亿美元，同比下降7.2%，符合预期 

• 26财年第二季度非公认会计准则每股收益：0.18美元，低于预期0.20美元 

• 26财年全年指引：维持铀产量指引1950万–2150万磅（Cameco权益份额），尽管Key Lake、McArthur River和Cigar Lake矿区出现临时运营中断；成本指引上调，主因外汇波动影响 战略亮点：长期铀价达十年高位；未来五年年均已签约交付超2800万磅；Westinghouse旗下91个AP1000反应堆潜在项目提供长期增长期权 

• 短评：本季度财务表现疲软，但战略前景强劲。盈利不及预期主要源于：（1）去年同期包含Westinghouse一次性贡献，形成高基数；（2）加拿大萨斯喀彻温省多个核心矿区因维护或物流问题导致短期产量扰动。然而，已实现铀价持续攀升，且公司明确表示全年生产目标不变。市场更关注结构性利好：全球核电复兴加速，长期铀合约价格创十年新高，而Cameco作为少数具备大规模、低成本、未锁定产能的一级铀生产商，议价能力显著增强。此外，通过控股Westinghouse，公司深度参与全球新一代核反应堆（尤其是AP1000）建设浪潮，打开长期成长空间。财报后股价盘前上涨约4%，显示投资者“忽略”短期波动，聚焦长期价值重估逻辑。后续关键变量包括：（1）长期铀合约定价趋势（当前现货价约$90+/磅，长协价稳步上修）；（2）萨斯喀彻温矿区运营稳定性与产量恢复节奏；（3）Westinghouse对利润表的贡献（受权益法会计影响，波动较大）；（4）美国、欧洲、中国及新兴市场核电新建与延寿进度。尽管短期盈利受发货节奏和会计处理影响而波动，Cameco在能源安全与脱碳双重驱动下，处于铀周期上行通道的核心位置。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：80美元至110美元。积极前景。 

 

Chevron Corp. (CVX) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $70.06B, +56.30% YoY, beat estimates by $9.67B 

• 2Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $6.06, beat estimates by $0.48 

• FY26 Guidance: Expects to spend 25% less per barrel in US shale production this year than in 2025, due to efficiencies.  

• Dividends/Share Buybacks: Declared a quarterly dividend of $1.78/share, in-line with previous. Repurchased $3B in shares during the second quarter and maintain its full-year share repurchase target of between $10-20B. 

• Comment: Chevron delivered a record second quarter, with adjusted earnings of US$6.06/share exceeding expectations, supported by higher oil prices and strong operational execution across both upstream and downstream businesses. Upstream earnings tripled YoY to US$8.2bn as production increased to a record 4.0 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, driven by record U.S. output from the Permian Basin and Gulf of Mexico, while downstream earnings reached their highest level since the start of the decade on the back of record refinery throughput and elevated refining margins. The company also continued to improve capital efficiency, expecting U.S. shale production costs per barrel to decline by 25% this year, returned US$6.5bn to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, and achieved US$1.5bn of synergies from its Hess acquisition six months ahead of schedule, exceeding its original target. Chevron remains well-positioned to generate strong shareholder returns through disciplined capital allocation, improving operating efficiencies and continued production growth. Management expects to maintain its US$10bn-20bn annual share repurchase programme while further strengthening the balance sheet, with additional upside from the integration of Hess and ongoing cost reductions in its U.S. shale operations. The company also sees potential to expand production in Venezuela over the next 18-24 months, subject to favourable operating conditions and regulatory approvals. However, future performance will remain influenced by oil price volatility, geopolitical developments, refining margins and the pace of global energy demand. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $180 to $210. Neutral Outlook. 

 

雪佛龙公司（CVX) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：700.6亿美元，同比增长56.3%，超出预期96.7亿美元 

• 26财年第二季度非公认会计准则每股收益：6.06美元，超出预期0.48美元 

• 26财年全年指引：由于运营效率提升，预计今年美国页岩油生产的每桶成本将比2025年降低25% 

• 股息与股票回购：宣布季度股息为每股1.78美元，与之前一致；第二季度回购了30亿美元的股票，并维持全年100亿至200亿美元的股票回购目标 

• 短评：雪佛龙第二季度业绩创历史新高，在油价上涨以及上游和下游业务强劲运营执行的支撑下，调整后每股收益达6.06美元，超出预期。上游利润同比增长两倍至82亿美元，受二叠纪盆地和墨西哥湾创纪录的美国产量推动，日产量增至创纪录的400万桶油当量；同时，在炼油厂吞吐量创纪录和炼油利润率走高的推动下，下游利润达到本十年初以来的最高水平。公司还持续提升资本效率，预计今年美国页岩油每桶生产成本将下降25%，通过股息和股票回购向股东返还了65亿美元，并提前六个月实现了从赫斯（Hess）收购中获得的15亿美元协同效应，超出了最初目标。雪佛龙仍处于有利地位，能够通过严格的资本配置、运营效率的提升和持续的产量增长为股东创造丰厚回报。管理层预计将维持每年100亿至200亿美元的股票回购计划，同时进一步强化资产负债表，并有望从赫斯的整合以及美国页岩油业务的持续降本中获得额外上行空间。公司还指出，在运营条件和监管批准有利的情况下，未来18至24个月内有潜力扩大在委内瑞拉的产量。然而，未来的表现仍将受到油价波动、地缘政治发展、炼油利润率以及全球能源需求增速的影响。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：180美元至210美元。中性前景。 

 

Colgate-Palmolive Co. (CL) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $5.36B, +4.9% YoY, in-line with estimates  

• 2Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.99, beat estimates by $0.04 

• FY26 Guidance: Reaffirmed guidance of full-year net sales to grow 2% to 6% and raised the base of its 2026 adjusted earnings forecast to mid-single-digit growth, up from its prior low- ‌to ⁠mid-single-digit forecast. The company warned additional headwinds relative to the forecast, as new 10% and 12.5% tariffs imposed by the Trump administration are expected to more than offset the benefit from tariff refunds received in the second ⁠quarter. 

• Comment: Colgate-Palmolive delivered a resilient second quarter, with net sales increasing 4.9% YoY to US$5.36bn, in line with expectations, while adjusted EPS of US$0.99 exceeded consensus. Despite continued weakness in North America, where organic sales declined 3% due to lower volumes, market share losses, heightened competition and retailer inventory reductions, the company maintained its full-year net sales growth guidance of 2-6% and raised the lower end of its adjusted earnings growth outlook to mid-single-digit growth. Management also cautioned that newly imposed U.S. tariffs are expected to create incremental headwinds that more than offset the benefit of tariff refunds received during the second quarter. Colgate-Palmolive remains focused on driving growth through pricing discipline, innovation and operational execution while navigating a challenging consumer environment. Although management expects continued sales growth and improved earnings in 2026, demand in North America remains subdued amid persistent inflationary pressures, increased competition and softer consumer spending. Looking ahead, the company’s ability to regain market share, sustain pricing, expand in international markets and mitigate the impact of higher tariffs and input cost inflation will be key determinants of future earnings growth. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $80 to $100. Neutral Outlook. 

 

高露洁-棕榄公司（CL) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：53.6亿美元，同比增长4.9%，符合预期 

• 26财年第二季度非公认会计准则每股收益：0.99美元，超出预期0.04美元 

• 26财年全年指引：重申全年净销售额将增长2%至6%的指引，并将2026年调整后盈利预测的下限上调至中个位数增长（此前为低至中个位数）。公司警告称，相对于该预测存在额外的逆风因素，因为特朗普政府新征收的10%和12.5%关税预计将完全抵消第二季度收到的关税退税带来的好处 

• 短评：高露洁–棕榄第二季度业绩表现稳健，净销售额同比增长4.9%至53.6亿美元，符合预期，同时0.99美元的非公认会计准则调整后每股收益超出市场共识。尽管北美市场持续疲软（由于销量下降、市场份额流失、竞争加剧以及零售商去库存，该地区有机销售额下降了3%），公司仍维持了全年净销售额增长2%-6%的指引，并将调整后盈利增长预期的下限上调至中个位数增长。管理层还警告称，美国新征收的关税预计将带来额外的逆风，其负面影响将超过第二季度收到的关税退税所带来的好处。高露洁–棕榄仍专注于通过严格的定价策略、产品创新和卓越的运营执行来推动增长，以应对充满挑战的消费环境。尽管管理层预计2026年销售额将持续增长且盈利有所改善，但在持续的通胀压力、竞争加剧和消费者支出走软的背景下，北美的需求依然低迷。展望未来，公司恢复市场份额、维持定价能力、拓展国际市场以及减轻更高关税和投入成本通胀影响的能力，将是决定未来盈利增长的关键因素。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：80美元至100美元。中性前景。