Technical Analysis: 29 October 2026

Vertiv Holdings Co (VRT) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: Net sales US$4.313bn, +61.2% YoY; approximately US$563m above US$3.75bn consensus. Organic growth 55%; acquisitions contributed approximately 6%. 

• 3Q26 EPS: Adjusted diluted EPS US$2.21 versus US$1.24, +78%; beat US$1.82 consensus by US$0.39. GAAP diluted EPS US$1.95 versus US$1.02, +91%. 

• 4Q26 Guidance: Net sales US$4.313–4.513bn; organic growth 49–51%; adjusted diluted EPS US$2.22–2.28; adjusted operating margin 25.3–26.3%. 

• FY26 Guidance: Net sales raised to US$14.45–14.85bn from US$13.8–14.2bn; adjusted EPS US$7.10–7.20 from US$6.65–6.75. Adjusted operating margin 23.5–24.5% from 23.3–24.3%; adjusted free cash flow US$2.6–2.8bn from US$2.4–2.6bn. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: Latest declared quarterly cash dividend US$0.0625/share, paid 24 September to holders of record on 14 September. No new buyback authorisation announced in the Q3 release. Liquidity US$6.2bn; net cash position maintained. 

• Comment: Vertiv’s acceleration in orders and profit supports a positive outlook, with stronger execution than the prior revenue timing shortfall. Organic orders more than doubled, while power, thermal management and services position the company close to the practical constraints on larger AI deployments. Margin expansion alongside rapid growth shows that productivity and operating leverage are contributing. Adjusted earnings exclude amortisation and other charges, but the substantial GAAP earnings increase supports the underlying direction. Management said backlog comprises purchase orders rather than capacity agreements, with coverage broadly around 12–18 months. That strengthens the demand signal, although customers can still delay projects. Higher Q4 guidance requires sustained delivery at an elevated run rate, making capacity expansion, supplier readiness and complex project execution important variables. Working capital and capital expenditure also absorb cash as the business scales, despite healthy cash generation and a net cash position. Shares closed at US$242.94 on 28 October, up 16.48%. The sharp rerating restores part of the AI infrastructure premium, making further upside more dependent on profitable backlog conversion. Competition, customer concentration and changes in hyperscaler spending remain risks. Watch organic orders, liquid-cooling adoption, factory utilisation, incremental margins and cash conversion. Weakening order quality would challenge the thesis. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$210–290. Positive Outlook. 

维谛技术 (VRT) 

• 2026财年第三季度营收：净销售额43.13亿美元，同比增长61.2%；较37.5亿美元预期高约5.63亿美元。有机增长55%；收购贡献约6%。 

• 2026财年第三季度每股收益：经调整摊薄每股盈利2.21美元，去年1.24美元，增长78%；较1.82美元预期高0.39美元。GAAP摊薄每股盈利1.95美元，去年1.02美元，增长91%。 

• 2026财年第四季度指引：净销售额43.13亿至45.13亿美元；有机增长49–51%；经调整摊薄每股盈利2.22–2.28美元；经调整经营利润率25.3–26.3%。 

• 2026财年指引：净销售额由138亿至142亿美元上调至144.5亿至148.5亿美元；经调整每股盈利由6.65–6.75美元上调至7.10–7.20美元。经调整经营利润率由23.3–24.3%上调至23.5–24.5%；经调整自由现金流由24亿至26亿美元上调至26亿至28亿美元。 

• 股息与回购：最近宣布季度现金股息每股0.0625美元，已于9月24日支付，登记日9月14日。第三季度公告未宣布新的回购授权。流动性62亿美元；维持净现金状态。 

• 短评：维谛订单及利润加速，支持正面前景，执行亦较此前收入时点落差改善。有机订单增长超过一倍，电力、温控及服务组合使公司直接参与解决大型AI部署的实际瓶颈。在快速增长下利润率仍扩大，显示生产效率及经营杠杆带来贡献。经调整盈利剔除摊销等费用，但GAAP盈利显著上升支持基础改善方向。管理层表示，在手订单仅包含采购订单，而非产能协议，覆盖期大致为12–18个月，强化需求信号，不过客户仍可能推迟项目。第四季度指引上调要求公司持续维持较高交付水平，因此扩产、供应商准备及复杂项目执行均属重要变量。尽管现金创造健康并维持净现金状态，业务扩大仍需营运资金及资本开支投入。股价于10月28日收报242.94美元，上涨16.48%。大幅重估恢复部分AI基础设施溢价，后续上行更依赖订单转化为有利润的交付。竞争、客户集中及超大规模云客户开支变化仍是风险。应关注有机订单、液冷采用、工厂利用率、增量利润率及现金转化。订单质量转弱将挑战投资逻辑。 2026年第四季度建议交易区间：210–290美元。正面前景。 

GE Vernova Inc. (GEV) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: Revenue US$12.642bn versus US$9.969bn, +27% YoY; US$642m above US$12.0bn consensus. Organic revenue growth 18%. 

• 3Q26 EPS: GAAP diluted EPS US$4.81 versus US$1.64, +193%; beat US$4.00 consensus by US$0.81. Adjusted EBITDA US$1.943bn, with 15.4% margin versus 8.1%. 

• 4Q26 Guidance: No numerical Q4 revenue or EPS range provided. Management expects revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth, margin expansion and positive free cash flow. Gas Power equipment backlog plus slot reservations targeted at at least 130 GW by year-end, versus 122 GW at Q3. 

• FY26 Guidance: Revenue raised to US$46.5–47.5bn from US$45.5–46.5bn; adjusted EBITDA margin 13.5–14.5% from 12–14%; free cash flow US$16–17bn from US$11.5–12.5bn. Wind EBITDA loss now US$400–500m versus approximately US$400m previously. No full-year EPS range provided. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: Buyback authorisation doubled to US$20bn from US$10bn. Q3 repurchases US$1.6bn; another US$1.3bn from 1–23 October. Quarterly dividend US$0.50/share, payable 24 November to holders of record on 27 October. 

• Comment: GE Vernova’s improving shipment economics and expanding backlog support a positive outlook. Power and Electrification are converting demand into higher revenue and margins, with better equipment pricing supporting future deliveries. Orders rose 96% organically and backlog reached US$197bn, although conversion remains subject to customer schedules. Non-operating benefit income also supports GAAP profit, making adjusted EBITDA a cleaner operating signal. Quarterly free cash flow of US$5.4bn includes a US$5.3bn working-capital benefit, primarily customer down payments and slot reservations. These receipts improve funding but carry future delivery obligations and should not become a permanent cash-flow baseline. Wind delivered positive quarterly EBITDA, yet its higher expected full-year loss shows an uneven recovery. The US$9bn Trench acquisition expands high-voltage capabilities, but its expected late-2027 closing separates those benefits from current earnings. Proposed cash and debt funding also requires discipline alongside enlarged buybacks. Shares closed at US$878.03 on 28 October, down 1.90%, despite the beat and higher guidance. Investors still require proof that demand can persist and the acquisition can earn adequate returns. Valuation remains sensitive to pricing durability and profitable delivery against advances. Watch turbine orders and shipments, Electrification margins, advance balances, Wind execution and Trench integration planning. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$800–1,050. Positive Outlook. 

通用电气能源 (GEV) 

• 2026财年第三季度营收：收入126.42亿美元，去年99.69亿美元，同比增长27%；较120亿美元预期高6.42亿美元。有机收入增长18%。 

• 2026财年第三季度每股收益：GAAP摊薄每股盈利4.81美元，去年1.64美元，增长193%；较4.00美元预期高0.81美元。经调整EBITDA为19.43亿美元，利润率15.4%，去年8.1%。 

• 2026财年第四季度指引：未提供第四季度收入或每股盈利数值区间。管理层预计收入及经调整EBITDA增长、利润率扩大，自由现金流为正。燃气发电设备在手订单加产能预留协议目标年底至少130吉瓦，第三季度为122吉瓦。 

• 2026财年指引：收入由455亿至465亿美元上调至465亿至475亿美元；经调整EBITDA利润率由12–14%上调至13.5–14.5%；自由现金流由115亿至125亿美元上调至160亿至170亿美元。风电EBITDA亏损预计4亿至5亿美元，此前约4亿美元。未提供全年每股盈利区间。 

• 股息与回购：回购授权由100亿美元增至200亿美元。第三季度回购16亿美元，10月1日至23日再回购13亿美元。季度股息每股0.50美元，11月24日支付，登记日10月27日。 

• 短评：通用电气能源出货盈利能力改善及订单扩大，支持正面前景。发电及电气化业务将需求转化为更高收入与利润率，设备定价改善亦支持后续交付。有机订单增长96%，在手订单达1,970亿美元，不过转化仍受客户时间安排影响。非经营性福利收益亦支持GAAP利润，因此经调整EBITDA更能反映经营表现。季度自由现金流54亿美元包含53亿美元营运资金利好，主要来自客户预付款及产能预留。这些收款改善融资，但伴随未来交付责任，不宜成为永久现金流基准。风电季度EBITDA转正，但全年预期亏损扩大显示复苏不均衡。90亿美元Trench收购将拓展高压设备能力，不过预计2027年末完成，相关收益应与当前盈利分开评估。拟用现金及债务融资，加上扩大的回购，要求资本配置保持纪律。尽管业绩超预期并上调指引，股价于10月28日收报878.03美元，下跌1.90%。投资者仍要求证明需求可持续及收购能赚取足够回报。估值对定价持续性及预收款转化为有利润的交付仍敏感。应关注燃气轮机订单与出货、电气化利润率、预付款余额、风电执行及Trench整合规划。 2026年第四季度建议交易区间：800–1,050美元。正面前景。 

UBS Group AG (UBS) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: Revenue US$13.350bn versus US$12.760bn, +4.6% YoY; US$300m above US$13.05bn consensus. Underlying revenue US$13.387bn, +10%. 

• 3Q26 EPS: Reported diluted EPS US$0.85 versus US$0.76, +11.8%; missed US$0.92 consensus by US$0.07. Net profit US$2.690bn, +8.4%; reported pretax profit US$3.587bn, +27%, versus underlying pretax profit US$4.077bn, +14%. 

• 4Q26 Guidance: No absolute Q4 group revenue or EPS range. Wealth-management NII expected to grow low-single digits sequentially; Swiss banking NII slightly higher in francs. Transaction activity expected to moderate seasonally. 

• FY26 Guidance: No full-year revenue or EPS range provided. Gross integration cost-saving ambition raised to approximately US$13.7bn from US$13.5bn. Expects to outperform the approximately 15% underlying RoCET1 exit-rate target and achieve cost/income ratio below 70%; year-end CET1 ratio around 14%. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: Q3 buybacks US$1.8bn; plans to complete the US$3bn programme by Q4 results. Accruing for mid-teens dividend growth. Repurchases remain conditional on performance, approximately 14% CET1 and Swiss capital rules. 

• Comment: UBS’s client inflows and integration progress support improving earnings capacity, but the EPS miss and Swiss capital uncertainty keep our outlook neutral. Wealth Management attracted US$55.1bn of net new assets, with recurring fees and net interest income increasing. This provides a more durable earnings base than trading alone, which faces seasonal moderation in Q4. Headline pretax growth also benefits from lower integration expenses. Underlying pretax profit rose more slowly, so reported growth should not be read entirely as recurring acceleration. A higher effective tax rate restrained net profit, while legacy debt repurchases and mark-to-market effects affected Group Items. Technology decommissioning and the higher savings ambition reduce execution uncertainty, although completing integration will not eliminate operating risks. Capital exceeds the targeted level and supports current buybacks, yet potential Swiss requirements for foreign subsidiaries could constrain future distributions. Shares closed at US$46.69 on 28 October, down 0.21%. The limited reaction reflects solid franchise evidence without resolution of the capital debate. Wealth management supports valuation, but shareholder returns depend on sustainable capital release. Watch net new assets, recurring fees, net interest income, final integration costs and Swiss legislation. February 2027 capital-return ambitions should clarify the next stage of distributions. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$42–54. Neutral Outlook. 

瑞银集团 (UBS) 

• 2026财年第三季度营收：收入133.50亿美元，去年127.60亿美元，同比增长4.6%；较130.5亿美元预期高3亿美元。基础收入133.87亿美元，增长10%。 

• 2026财年第三季度每股收益：报告摊薄每股盈利0.85美元，去年0.76美元，增长11.8%；较0.92美元预期低0.07美元。净利润26.90亿美元，增长8.4%；报告税前利润35.87亿美元，增长27%，基础税前利润40.77亿美元，增长14%。 

• 2026财年第四季度指引：未提供第四季度集团收入或每股盈利绝对值区间。财富管理净利息收入预计环比低个位数增长；瑞士银行业务净利息收入按瑞郎计算略增。交易活动预计季节性放缓。 

• 2026财年指引：未提供全年收入或每股盈利区间。整合总成本节省目标由约135亿美元上调至137亿美元。预计超越年底约15%的基础普通股一级资本回报率目标，并实现低于70%的成本收入比；年底CET1资本比率约14%。 

• 股息与回购：第三季度回购18亿美元；计划在公布第四季度业绩前完成30亿美元计划。为股息增长百分之十几计提。回购仍取决于业绩、约14%的CET1目标及瑞士资本规则。 

• 短评：瑞银客户资金流入及整合进度支持盈利能力改善，但每股盈利低于预期及瑞士资本要求不确定，使我们维持中性。财富管理录得551亿美元净新增资产，经常性费用及净利息收入亦增长，提供较单靠交易更持久的盈利基础；交易业务第四季度面临季节性放缓。税前利润表面增速亦受惠于整合费用减少。基础税前利润增长较慢，故不宜将报告增幅全部视为经常性业务加速。较高实际税率限制净利润，历史债务回购及按市值计价亦影响集团项目。技术系统停用及节省目标上调降低执行不确定，不过完成整合并不会消除经营风险。资本高于目标并支持现有回购，但瑞士对海外子公司的潜在要求可能限制未来分配。股价于10月28日收报46.69美元，下跌0.21%。反应有限，反映业务基础稳健，但资本争议仍未解决。财富管理支持估值，不过股东回报取决于可持续释放的资本。应关注净新增资产、经常性费用、净利息收入、最终整合成本及瑞士立法。2027年2月公布资本回报目标，应有助明确下一阶段分配。 2026年第四季度建议交易区间：42–54美元。中性前景。 

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) 

• 1Q27 Revenue: Revenue US$92.279bn, +19% YoY; approximately US$1.669bn above US$90.61bn consensus. Microsoft Cloud revenue US$63.9bn, +30%; Azure revenue +48%. 

• 1Q27 EPS: Non-GAAP diluted EPS US$4.89 versus US$4.13, +18% YoY; beat US$4.72 consensus by US$0.17. GAAP EPS US$4.92, +32%; OpenAI investment gains added US$0.03 this quarter versus a US$0.41 loss a year earlier. 

• 2Q27 Guidance: Revenue US$96.0–97.1bn, +18–19% YoY; Azure revenue growth 49–50% in constant currency. Microsoft Cloud gross margin approximately 65%; capex above US$50bn. No explicit EPS range provided. 

• FY27 Guidance: The company did not provide a full-year revenue or EPS range. FY27 expected to remain free-cash-flow positive. Separately, calendar-2026 capex reduced to approximately US$170bn from US$175bn due to third-party capacity delays, with spending accelerating in fiscal H2. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: Q1 dividends and share repurchases totalled US$10.2bn. Quarterly dividend increased 8% to US$0.98/share, payable 10 December 2026 to holders of record on 19 November. 

• Comment: Microsoft’s accelerating cloud growth and resilient cash generation support a positive outlook, although capacity delivery remains the key constraint. The quarter shows AI demand producing operating earnings alongside infrastructure spending. OpenAI accounting amplified GAAP EPS growth; the adjusted comparison better reflects underlying progress. Azure’s December outlook raises the execution bar. Engineering efficiencies can release capacity quickly, but their timing makes quarterly growth less predictable. We would judge progress through sustained revenue conversion and cash returns. Commercial commitments improve visibility without eliminating customer concentration or delivery risk. The lower calendar-year spending forecast reflects delayed third-party capacity, shifting expenditure into later periods rather than demonstrating a permanent reduction in investment needs. Operating cash flow of US$58bn and free cash flow of US$18.6bn provide support, while weaker Windows demand increases reliance on cloud. Shares traded at US$546.39 post-market on 28 October, up 2.90% from the close. The premium valuation is better supported by this print, but sustained upside requires profitable deployment of new capacity. Watch Azure delivery, cloud gross margin, paid Copilot monetisation and retention, cash conversion and the second-half spending ramp. Deteriorating cash conversion despite strong reported bookings would weaken our stance. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$500–610. Positive Outlook. 

微软 (MSFT) 

• 2027财年第一季度营收：收入922.79亿美元，同比增长19%；较906.1亿美元预期高约16.69亿美元。微软云收入639亿美元，增长30%；Azure收入增长48%。 

• 2027财年第一季度每股收益：非GAAP摊薄每股盈利4.89美元，去年4.13美元，同比增长18%；较4.72美元预期高0.17美元。GAAP每股盈利4.92美元，增长32%；本季OpenAI投资收益贡献每股0.03美元，去年则录得每股0.41美元损失。 

• 2027财年第二季度指引：收入960–971亿美元，同比增长18–19%；Azure固定汇率收入增长49–50%。微软云毛利率约65%；资本开支超过500亿美元。未提供明确每股盈利区间。 

• 2027财年指引：公司未提供全年收入或每股盈利区间。预计2027财年维持正自由现金流。另外，因第三方产能延迟，2026自然年资本开支由约1,750亿美元下调至1,700亿美元，支出将在财年下半年加快。 

• 股息与回购：首季股息及股份回购合计102亿美元。季度股息提高8%至每股0.98美元，于2026年12月10日支付，登记日11月19日。 

• 短评：微软云增长加快及现金创造保持韧性，支持正面前景，但产能交付仍是关键限制。本季显示AI需求在增加基础设施开支的同时，亦能产生经营盈利。OpenAI会计损益扩大GAAP每股盈利增幅，经调整比较更能反映基础进展。Azure十二月季度指引提高执行要求。工程效率可迅速释放产能，其实现时点却令单季增长更难预测。我们更重视持续收入转化及现金回报。商业合约承诺提升可见度，但不能消除客户集中及交付风险。自然年开支预测下降反映第三方产能延迟，将支出后移，并不证明长期投资需求永久减少。经营现金流580亿美元及自由现金流186亿美元提供支持，而Windows需求转弱增加对云业务的依赖。股价于10月28日盘后报546.39美元，较收盘上涨2.90%。本季业绩为估值溢价提供更好支持，但持续上行仍须新产能产生利润。应关注Azure交付、云毛利率、付费Copilot变现及留存、现金转化及下半年开支加快情况。若报告订单强劲但现金转化恶化，将削弱我们的正面看法。 2026年第四季度建议交易区间：500–610美元。正面前景。 

Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: Revenue US$127.577bn, +25% YoY; approximately US$393m below US$127.97bn consensus. Google Cloud revenue US$30.709bn, +103%; Search and other advertising revenue +12%. 

• 3Q26 EPS: GAAP diluted EPS US$2.12 versus US$2.87, down 26.1% YoY; missed US$3.01 consensus by US$0.89. Equity-security losses reduced EPS by US$0.55. Operating income grew 30% to US$40.576bn. 

• 4Q26 Guidance: The company did not provide numerical Q4 revenue or EPS guidance. Management expects greater FX headwinds, difficult Search comparisons and near-term Cloud margin pressure from third-party compute; TPU system sales should continue scaling. 

• FY26 Guidance: No full-year revenue or EPS range provided. Calendar-2026 capex guidance maintained at US$195–205bn; management expects capex to increase significantly in 2027, with details to follow at Q4 results. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: Common dividend US$0.22/share, payable 14 December to holders of record on 7 December. No Q3 share repurchases; the company instead raised US$12.371bn net through common-share issuance under its at-the-market programme. 

• Comment: Alphabet’s cloud expansion strengthens its AI franchise, but cash consumption and Search monetisation uncertainty keep our outlook neutral. Equity-investment losses overstate the deterioration in operations, making operating profit a better business indicator. Nevertheless, revenue missed consensus, and strong query growth must translate into advertising income. Cloud provides another earnings engine, but hardware sales and rented compute change its margin and working-capital profile. Investors should assess revenue quality alongside growth. Free cash flow was negative US$9.065bn as capital expenditure exceeded operating cash generation. Inventory investment and the European Commission fine also affected cash, so the outflow is not entirely recurring operating weakness. Persistent infrastructure commitments nevertheless increase the importance of utilisation and pricing discipline. Common-share issuance without repurchases changes the shareholder-return picture and makes per-share progress more important than aggregate growth. Shares traded at US$292.50 post-market on 28 October, down 9.97% from the close. The lower price improves valuation support without resolving funding and monetisation questions. Watch Search advertising yield, AI usage converted into paid demand, Cloud margins as third-party capacity ramps, inventory collections and the 2027 capital budget. Restoring cash generation without greater financing dependence would make us more constructive. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$260–335. Neutral Outlook. 

谷歌母公司Alphabet (GOOGL) 

• 2026财年第三季度营收：收入1,275.77亿美元，同比增长25%；较1,279.7亿美元预期低约3.93亿美元。谷歌云收入307.09亿美元，增长103%；搜索及其他广告收入增长12%。 

• 2026财年第三季度每股收益：GAAP摊薄每股盈利2.12美元，去年2.87美元，同比下降26.1%；较3.01美元预期低0.89美元。权益证券损失令每股盈利减少0.55美元。经营利润增长30%至405.76亿美元。 

• 2026财年第四季度指引：公司未提供第四季度量化收入或每股盈利指引。管理层预计汇率拖累加大、搜索面临高基数，使用第三方计算资源将短期压低云利润率；TPU系统销售预计继续扩大。 

• 2026财年指引：未提供全年收入或每股盈利区间。2026自然年资本开支指引维持1,950–2,050亿美元；管理层预计2027年资本开支显著增加，将在第四季度业绩时提供详情。 

• 股息与回购：普通股季度股息每股0.22美元，12月14日支付，登记日12月7日。第三季度未回购股份；公司通过市价发行计划发行普通股，净筹资123.71亿美元。 

• 短评：Alphabet云业务扩张强化AI业务基础，但现金消耗及搜索变现的不确定性使我们维持中性。权益投资损失夸大经营恶化程度，因此经营利润更能反映业务趋势。不过，收入仍低于预期，强劲查询增长须转化为广告收入。云业务提供另一盈利来源，但硬件销售及租用计算资源改变其利润率及营运资金结构。投资者应兼顾收入质量与增速。资本开支超过经营现金创造，自由现金流为负90.65亿美元。库存投资及欧盟委员会罚款亦影响现金，因此流出并非全部来自经常性经营弱点。然而，持续基础设施承诺令利用率及定价纪律更加重要。没有回购却发行普通股，改变股东回报结构，令每股增长较总额增长更重要。股价于10月28日盘后报292.50美元，较收盘下跌9.97%。较低价格改善估值支持，但未解决融资及变现问题。应关注搜索广告收益率、AI使用转化为付费需求、第三方产能增加后的云利润率、库存回款及2027年资本预算。若能恢复现金创造而无需进一步依赖融资，我们将更趋积极。 2026年第四季度建议交易区间：260–335美元。中性前景。 

ServiceNow Inc. (NOW) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: Total revenue US$4.106bn, +20.5% YoY; US$16m above US$4.09bn consensus. Subscription revenue US$3.988bn, +21% reported and +20.5% in constant currency. 

• 3Q26 EPS: Non-GAAP diluted EPS US$1.00 versus restated US$0.95, +5.3% YoY; missed US$1.02 consensus by US$0.02. GAAP EPS US$0.27 versus US$0.48, down 43.8%. Figures reflect the five-for-one stock split. 

• 4Q26 Guidance: Subscription revenue US$4.245–4.255bn, +21.5% in constant currency; cRPO growth 18.5% in constant currency and non-GAAP operating margin 32%. No numerical Q4 EPS guidance provided. 

• FY26 Guidance: Subscription revenue raised to US$15.780–15.790bn, midpoint US$15.785bn versus prior US$15.770bn. Free-cash-flow margin raised to 36% from 35%; non-GAAP operating margin maintained at 31.5%. No full-year EPS range provided. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: No cash dividend announced. No shares repurchased in Q3. Non-GAAP free cash flow US$822m includes a US$74m add-back for acquisition-related cash costs; operating cash flow US$839m and property/equipment purchases US$91m. 

• Comment: ServiceNow’s growing AI contracts support its franchise, but the gap between commercial momentum and per-share earnings keeps our outlook neutral. A modest revenue beat and higher annual subscription forecast show resilient demand, while slower adjusted EPS growth and the earnings miss weaken the result. Acquisition amortisation, compensation and restructuring explain much of the GAAP adjustment gap but remain relevant to shareholder returns. The cash-flow measure also adds back acquisition-related cash outlays; investors should compare it with unadjusted operating cash generation. The increased AI contract-value target to US$1.7bn supports monetisation, although annual contract value is not recognised revenue. Customers must deploy products and expand spending without disproportionately expensive implementation support. Management attributes the softer December cRPO outlook partly to contract mix and excluded backlog, making transparent revenue conversion especially important. Shares traded at US$122.91 post-market on 28 October, down 18.13% from the close. That reset reduces valuation pressure, but the broader platform must still deliver durable per-share growth. Watch organic subscriptions, AI deployment, renewals, acquisition integration, share-based compensation and cash conversion. Improving earnings quality alongside sustained bookings and better retention would support a positive stance; a stronger narrative alone is insufficient. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$105–145. Neutral Outlook. 

ServiceNow (NOW) 

• 2026财年第三季度营收：总收入41.06亿美元，同比增长20.5%；较40.9亿美元预期高1,600万美元。订阅收入39.88亿美元，报告增长21%，固定汇率增长20.5%。 

• 2026财年第三季度每股收益：非GAAP摊薄每股盈利1.00美元，去年重列后0.95美元，同比增长5.3%；较1.02美元预期低0.02美元。GAAP每股盈利0.27美元，去年0.48美元，下降43.8%。数据已反映一拆五。 

• 2026财年第四季度指引：订阅收入42.45–42.55亿美元，固定汇率增长21.5%；当期剩余履约义务（cRPO）固定汇率增长18.5%，非GAAP经营利润率32%。未提供第四季度量化每股盈利指引。 

• 2026财年指引：订阅收入上调至157.80–157.90亿美元，中位数157.85亿美元，此前中位数157.70亿美元。自由现金流利润率由35%上调至36%；非GAAP经营利润率维持31.5%。未提供全年每股盈利区间。 

• 股息与回购：未宣布现金股息。第三季度未回购股份。非GAAP自由现金流8.22亿美元，包括加回7,400万美元收购相关现金费用；经营现金流8.39亿美元，物业及设备采购9,100万美元。 

• 短评：ServiceNow的AI合约增长支持业务基础，但商业进展与每股盈利之间的差距使我们维持中性。收入略高预期及全年订阅预测上调，显示需求仍具韧性，但经调整每股盈利增长较慢且逊于预期，削弱业绩表现。收购摊销、薪酬及重组解释了大部分GAAP调整差距，但仍影响股东回报。现金流指标亦加回收购相关现金支出，投资者应同时比较未经调整的经营现金创造。AI合约价值目标上调至17亿美元，为变现提供支持，但年度合约价值并非已确认收入。客户须能部署产品及扩大支出，同时不需成本过高的实施支持。管理层将十二月季度cRPO指引转弱部分归因于合约结构及未纳入指标的订单，因此清晰的收入转化尤其重要。股价于10月28日盘后报122.91美元，较收盘下跌18.13%。价格调整减轻估值压力，但扩大的平台仍须产生持续每股增长。应关注有机订阅、AI部署、续约、收购整合、股权薪酬及现金转化。盈利质量改善并伴随订单持续增长及留存改善，将支持转向正面看法；仅凭更强业务叙事并不足够。 2026年第四季度建议交易区间：105–145美元。中性前景。 

KLA Corporation (KLAC) 

• 1Q27 Revenue: Revenue US$4.136bn versus US$3.210bn, +28.9% YoY; approximately US$16m above US$4.12bn consensus. Product revenue US$3.285bn; service revenue US$851m. 

• 1Q27 EPS: Non-GAAP diluted EPS US$1.22 versus US$0.88, +38.6%; beat US$1.20 consensus by US$0.02. GAAP diluted EPS US$1.18 versus US$0.85, +38.8%. All per-share figures reflect the June 2026 ten-for-one split. 

• 2Q27 Guidance: Revenue US$4.7bn ± US$200m; non-GAAP diluted EPS US$1.44 ± US$0.11; GAAP diluted EPS US$1.41 ± US$0.11. Non-GAAP gross margin 62.5% ± 1 percentage point. 

• FY27 Guidance: The company did not provide full-year FY27 revenue or EPS guidance. Management expects the calendar-2027 wafer-equipment market to exceed US$200bn; this is an industry outlook, not company revenue guidance. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: Q1 dividends US$305m and repurchases US$936m, totaling US$1.241bn. Trailing-12-month capital returns US$3.789bn; Q1 free cash flow US$1.336bn. 

• Comment: KLA’s stronger December outlook and rising process-control demand support a positive view. The reported beat was small; the more important change is the higher revenue base and confidence in sequential growth. Leading-edge logic, high-bandwidth memory and advanced packaging require more inspection as devices become more complex and valuable, expanding KLA’s opportunity within customer budgets. Services provide a recurring contribution from the installed base. Earnings quality is supported by the modest GAAP/non-GAAP EPS gap and cash generation covering dividends and repurchases. However, inventories increased, and meeting demand requires supply-capacity investment. Persistent memory-component costs can limit gross-margin expansion despite higher revenue. Long lead times mean backlog must convert into timely shipments and customer acceptance. Management’s expectation for a wafer-equipment market above US$200bn in 2027 remains an industry forecast, not a guaranteed company outcome. Export restrictions, customer concentration and changes in AI spending remain material risks. Shares traded at US$164.57 post-market on 28 October, up 3.65% from the close. Valuation still requires sustained earnings delivery, although the December outlook improves support. Watch customer capacity plans, advanced packaging, service growth, inventory conversion, input costs and export controls. We favour the operating trajectory while allowing for semiconductor-equipment cyclicality. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$145–195. Positive Outlook. 

科磊 (KLAC) 

• 2027财年第一季度营收：收入41.36亿美元，去年32.10亿美元，同比增长28.9%；较41.2亿美元预期高约1,600万美元。产品收入32.85亿美元；服务收入8.51亿美元。 

• 2027财年第一季度每股收益：非GAAP摊薄每股盈利1.22美元，去年0.88美元，增长38.6%；较1.20美元预期高0.02美元。GAAP摊薄每股盈利1.18美元，去年0.85美元，增长38.8%。所有每股数据均反映2026年6月一拆十。 

• 2027财年第二季度指引：收入47亿美元，上下浮动2亿美元；非GAAP摊薄每股盈利1.44美元，上下浮动0.11美元；GAAP摊薄每股盈利1.41美元，上下浮动0.11美元。非GAAP毛利率62.5%，上下浮动1个百分点。 

• 2027财年指引：公司未提供2027财年全年收入或每股盈利指引。管理层预计2027自然年晶圆设备市场超过2,000亿美元；此为行业展望，并非公司收入指引。 

• 股息与回购：首季股息3.05亿美元，回购9.36亿美元，合计12.41亿美元。过去12个月股东回报37.89亿美元；首季自由现金流13.36亿美元。 

• 短评：科磊12月季度展望增强及制程控制需求上升，支持正面观点。本季度超预期幅度不大；更重要的变化是收入规模提高，以及对环比增长的信心。先进逻辑、高带宽存储及先进封装使芯片更复杂、价值更高，检测需求随之增加，扩大科磊在客户预算中的机会。服务业务则提供基于装机规模的经常性贡献。GAAP与非GAAP每股盈利差距较小，现金创造覆盖股息及回购，支持盈利质量。不过，存货增加，满足需求需要供应产能投入。即使收入提高，持续偏高的存储元件成本亦可能限制毛利率扩张。交货周期较长，意味着积压订单须转化为及时出货及客户验收。管理层预计2027年晶圆设备市场超过2,000亿美元，仍属行业预测，并非公司业绩保证。出口限制、客户集中度及AI开支变化仍是重要风险。股价于10月28日盘后报164.57美元，较收盘价上涨3.65%。估值仍要求持续交付盈利，但12月季度展望改善支持。应关注客户产能计划、先进封装、服务增长、存货转化、投入成本及出口管制。我们看好经营轨迹，同时保留半导体设备周期波动空间。 2026年第四季度建议交易区间：145–195美元。正面前景。 

FedEx Corporation (FDX) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: Calendar Q3 continuing-operations revenue US$22.855bn versus US$20.432bn, +11.9% YoY; approximately US$125m above US$22.73bn consensus. 

• 3Q26 EPS: Adjusted diluted EPS US$3.74 versus US$2.93, +27.6% YoY; beat US$3.34 consensus by US$0.40. GAAP diluted EPS US$1.21, down 55.7%; materially affected by the retained FedEx Freight investment and other adjustments. 

• 4Q26 Guidance: Management expects approximately 10% revenue growth in calendar Q4, with U.S. domestic revenue up high single digits and international revenue up high teens. The company did not provide a standalone Q4 EPS range. 

• CY26 Guidance: CY26 revenue growth raised to approximately 12% from 11%; adjusted diluted EPS raised and narrowed to US$18.00–18.60 from US$16.90–18.10. Adjusted free cash flow outlook introduced at approximately US$4bn; capex approximately US$3.9bn. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: US$2bn of shares repurchased in June–September; US$4.3bn authorisation remaining. Latest declared quarterly dividend US$1.22/share, paid 1 October to holders of record on 14 September. 

• Comment: FedEx’s higher earnings outlook supports the operating recovery, but growth quality and the muted share reaction keep our outlook neutral. Continuing-operations comparisons matter following the fiscal-year transition and Freight separation. Better base pricing, premium service mix and structural cost reductions improved operating profit, with international performance stronger than domestic performance. Domestic purchased transportation costs and wages remain constraints. Fuel surcharges contributed about four percentage points to revenue growth but did not materially drive adjusted operating profit growth. Base yields and margins therefore deserve close attention. The GAAP-to-adjusted EPS gap includes a US$5.18/share investment loss, partly offset by a US$1.97/share debt-extinguishment gain and a net US$0.68/share benefit within restructuring and related adjustments. Adjusted operating-income growth provides clearer evidence of operational progress. Cash of US$8bn includes US$2.7bn of tariff refunds held for customers, limiting funds available for capital allocation. Buybacks support per-share earnings, while peak-season execution and cash conversion will determine whether the stronger outlook is delivered. Shares traded at US$297.00 post-market on 28 October, down 2.49% from the close. The valuation offers recovery potential but remains exposed to trade and cost uncertainty. Watch premium volumes, international mix, transportation costs, Network 2.0 service performance and the higher cash-flow target. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$270–350. Neutral Outlook. 

联邦快递 (FDX) 

• 2026自然年第三季度营收：自然年第三季度持续经营业务收入228.55亿美元，去年为204.32亿美元，同比增长11.9%；较227.30亿美元预期高约1.25亿美元。 

• 2026自然年第三季度每股收益：经调整摊薄每股盈利3.74美元，去年为2.93美元，同比增长27.6%；较3.34美元预期高0.40美元。GAAP摊薄每股盈利1.21美元，下降55.7%，受到保留的FedEx Freight投资及其他调整项目显著影响。 

• 2026自然年第四季度指引：管理层预计自然年第四季度收入增长约10%，其中美国国内收入增长高单位数，国际收入增长百分之十几的较高水平。公司未提供独立的第四季度每股盈利区间。 

• 2026自然年指引：2026自然年收入增长指引由约11%提高至12%；经调整摊薄每股盈利区间由16.90–18.10美元上调并收窄至18.00–18.60美元。首次提出经调整自由现金流约40亿美元的前景；资本支出约39亿美元。 

• 股息与回购：6月至9月回购20亿美元股份，剩余回购授权43亿美元。最近宣布的季度股息为每股1.22美元，已于10月1日向9月14日登记股东支付。 

• 短评：联邦快递上调盈利前景，支持经营复苏，但增长质量及股价反应使我们维持中性。财年过渡及货运业务分拆后，应采用持续经营业务比较。基础定价、优质服务组合及结构性降本推动经营利润改善，国际业务表现强于美国国内业务，而国内外包运输成本及工资仍构成限制。燃油附加费对收入增长贡献约4个百分点，却并非经调整经营利润增长的重要来源，因此基础收益率及利润率值得关注。GAAP与经调整每股盈利差距包括每股5.18美元投资损失，部分被每股1.97美元债务清偿收益及重组等调整项目中每股0.68美元净收益抵销。经调整经营利润增长更能反映经营进展。80亿美元现金中含有代客户持有的27亿美元关税退款，限制可用于资本配置的资金。回购支持每股盈利，而旺季执行及现金转化将决定更强前景能否兑现。10月28日盘后股价报297.00美元，较收盘价下跌2.49%。估值提供复苏潜力，但仍受贸易及成本不确定性影响。应关注优质服务货量、国际业务组合、运输成本、Network 2.0服务表现及更高现金流目标。 2026年第四季度建议交易区间：270–350美元。中性前景。 

Fortinet Inc. (FTNT) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: Revenue US$2.0784bn versus US$1.7249bn, +20.5% YoY; US$18.4m above US$2.06bn consensus. Product revenue +36.8%; service revenue +12.7%. 

• 3Q26 EPS: Non-GAAP diluted EPS US$0.91 versus US$0.74, +23.0%; beat US$0.86 consensus by US$0.05. GAAP diluted EPS US$0.86 versus US$0.62, +38.7%. 

• 4Q26 Guidance: Revenue US$2.155–2.245bn; billings US$2.775–2.925bn; non-GAAP EPS US$0.93–0.95. Non-GAAP operating margin 35.5–37.5%. 

• FY26 Guidance: Revenue raised to US$8.125–8.215bn from US$8.020–8.180bn; non-GAAP EPS US$3.54–3.58 from US$3.41–3.47. Billings raised to US$9.568–9.718bn from US$9.350–9.550bn. Service revenue lowered to US$5.150–5.170bn from US$5.180–5.220bn. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: Buyback authorization increased by US$1.2bn, leaving US$2.0bn available. No shares repurchased in Q3 and no cash dividend announced. Q3 free cash flow US$864.8m, excluding US$17.0m escrow-settlement proceeds. 

• Comment: Fortinet’s earnings beat and higher annual targets are offset by weaker service-revenue conversion, leaving our outlook neutral after the sharp price reset. Product sales benefited from higher-performance appliances, while billings outpaced recognized revenue. Customer commitments therefore remain stronger than services currently reaching the income statement. Management attributed the shortfall partly to enterprise agreements with staged activation, but the reduced service forecast makes subsequent conversion a test of that explanation. Growth also slowed from Q2, and earlier pricing and inventory benefits should not be extrapolated. Earnings quality is comparatively sound: non-GAAP profit excludes the escrow-settlement gain and cash generation remained strong. However, share-based compensation remains an economic cost, and component costs can constrain margins. Management expects faster service growth in 2027, supported by deferred revenue, but has not issued detailed annual guidance. Shares traded at US$129.33 post-market on 28 October, down 25.71% from the close. The lower price improves valuation balance without resolving execution risk. Watch service activations, short-term deferred revenue, SASE adoption, pricing and component costs. Actual repurchases and sustained cash conversion matter more than authorization alone. We would seek evidence that stronger billings are translating into recurring revenue before becoming more positive. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$110–155. Neutral Outlook. 

飞塔网络 (FTNT) 

• 2026财年第三季度营收：收入20.784亿美元，去年17.249亿美元，同比增长20.5%；较20.6亿美元预期高1,840万美元。产品收入增长36.8%；服务收入增长12.7%。 

• 2026财年第三季度每股收益：非GAAP摊薄每股盈利0.91美元，去年0.74美元，增长23.0%；较0.86美元预期高0.05美元。GAAP摊薄每股盈利0.86美元，去年0.62美元，增长38.7%。 

• 2026财年第四季度指引：收入21.55亿–22.45亿美元；账单金额27.75亿–29.25亿美元；非GAAP每股盈利0.93–0.95美元。非GAAP经营利润率35.5%–37.5%。 

• 2026财年指引：收入由80.20亿–81.80亿美元上调至81.25亿–82.15亿美元；非GAAP每股盈利由3.41–3.47美元上调至3.54–3.58美元。账单金额由93.50亿–95.50亿美元上调至95.68亿–97.18亿美元。服务收入由51.80亿–52.20亿美元下调至51.50亿–51.70亿美元。 

• 股息与回购：回购授权增加12亿美元，剩余可用金额20亿美元。第三季度未回购股份，亦未宣布现金股息。第三季度自由现金流8.648亿美元，剔除1,700万美元托管结算所得。 

• 短评：飞塔盈利超预期及全年目标上调，被服务收入转化减弱抵消；股价大幅调整后，我们维持中性。产品销售受益于更高性能设备，账单金额增速亦超过已确认收入。因此，客户承诺仍强于目前计入损益的服务收入。管理层将不足部分归因于企业协议分阶段启用服务，但服务预测下调，使其后转化成为验证该解释的指标。增速亦较第二季度放缓，先前提价及存货利益不宜外推。盈利质量相对稳健：非GAAP利润剔除托管结算收益，现金创造仍强。不过，股权薪酬仍是经济成本，元件成本亦可能限制利润率。管理层预计递延收入支持2027年服务增长加快，但未提供详细全年指引。股价于10月28日盘后报129.33美元，较收盘价下跌25.71%。较低股价改善估值平衡，却未解决执行风险。应关注服务启用、短期递延收入、SASE采用、定价及元件成本。实际回购及持续现金转化比授权更重要。转向更积极观点前，我们希望看到账单金额增强正转化为经常性收入的证据。 2026年第四季度建议交易区间：110–155美元。中性前景。 

T-Mobile US Inc. (TMUS) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: Revenue US$23.584bn, +7.4% YoY; US$274m above US$23.31bn consensus. Service revenue US$19.375bn, +6.2%; postpaid service revenue +9.3%. 

• 3Q26 EPS: GAAP diluted EPS US$3.22 versus US$2.41, +33.6%; beat US$2.86 consensus by US$0.36. Net income US$3.455bn, +27.3% YoY. 

• 4Q26 Guidance: Management expects approximately 7% organic postpaid service-revenue growth in Q4. The company did not provide a standalone Q4 total-revenue or EPS range. 

• FY26 Guidance: Core adjusted EBITDA narrowed and raised at midpoint to US$37.35–37.45bn from US$37.1–37.5bn; adjusted FCF US$18.7–18.8bn from US$18.4–18.8bn. Service revenue approximately US$76.8bn; postpaid ARPA growth approximately 3.5%, up from 2.5–3%. No full-year EPS guidance provided. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: Q3 repurchases US$2.4bn and dividends US$1.1bn. Quarterly dividend raised 15% to US$1.17/share, payable 10 December to holders of record on 25 November. Up to US$5.4bn remained under the 2026 return program at September-end. 

• Comment: T-Mobile’s account growth, higher revenue per account and stronger cash-flow guidance support a positive outlook. Postpaid remains the engine: 274,000 net account additions accompanied 4% ARPA growth, showing deeper customer relationships as the base expands. Network differentiation, premium plans and broadband cross-selling support service growth. Prepaid weakness and faster run-off of the Boost wholesale relationship partly offset that strength. The quarter supports a focused postpaid thesis rather than uniform portfolio growth. EPS increased faster than net income, reflecting lower share count alongside operating improvement. The reduced annual tax-rate outlook also helps earnings, so EPS growth is not purely a demand measure. Cash conversion warrants monitoring: operating cash flow declined slightly, while lower capital expenditure helped adjusted free cash flow increase. Future network and spectrum investment still competes with shareholder distributions. Shares traded at US$149.12 post-market on 28 October, up 0.70% from the close. The modest reaction leaves valuation support attractive relative to operating momentum, although promotions, churn and affordability remain constraints. Satellite connectivity is an evolving competitive variable. Watch account growth, ARPA, service mix, promotional spending, cash conversion and integration. Dividends and buybacks should complement continued network investment, funded by durable operating cash generation. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$140–180. Positive Outlook. 

美国T-Mobile (TMUS) 

• 2026财年第三季度营收：收入235.84亿美元，同比增长7.4%；较233.1亿美元预期高2.74亿美元。服务收入193.75亿美元，增长6.2%；后付费服务收入增长9.3%。 

• 2026财年第三季度每股收益：GAAP摊薄每股盈利3.22美元，去年2.41美元，增长33.6%；较2.86美元预期高0.36美元。净利润34.55亿美元，同比增长27.3%。 

• 2026财年第四季度指引：管理层预计第四季度后付费服务收入有机增长约7%。公司未提供独立第四季度总收入或每股盈利区间。 

• 2026财年指引：核心经调整EBITDA区间收窄且中点上调，由371亿–375亿美元调整至373.5亿–374.5亿美元；经调整自由现金流由184亿–188亿美元上调至187亿–188亿美元。服务收入约768亿美元；后付费每账户平均收入增长约3.5%，此前为2.5%–3%。未提供全年每股盈利指引。 

• 股息与回购：第三季度回购24亿美元，股息11亿美元。季度每股股息提高15%至1.17美元，12月10日支付，登记日11月25日。截至9月底，2026年股东回报计划剩余额度最高54亿美元。 

• 短评：T-Mobile账户增长、每账户收入提高及现金流指引增强，支持正面前景。后付费仍是引擎：净增加27.4万个账户，同时每账户平均收入增长4%，显示客户基础扩大时关系亦在深化。网络差异化、高端套餐及宽带交叉销售支持服务增长。预付费疲弱及Boost批发合作更快退出，抵消部分优势。本季度支持以后付费为核心的逻辑，并非所有业务均衡增长。每股盈利增速快于净利润，反映股数减少与经营改善共同贡献。全年税率展望下调亦有利盈利，因此每股盈利增长并非纯粹需求指标。现金转化值得关注：经营现金流略降，较低资本开支则帮助经调整自由现金流增加。未来网络及频谱投资仍须与股东分配竞争资金。股价于10月28日盘后报149.12美元，较收盘价上涨0.70%。反应温和使估值支持相对经营动能更具吸引力，不过促销、流失率及负担能力仍是约束。卫星连接是持续发展的竞争变量。应关注账户增长、每账户收入、服务结构、促销开支、现金转化及整合。股息及回购应由持久经营现金创造支持，并配合持续网络投资。 2026年第四季度建议交易区间：140–180美元。正面前景。