Technical Analysis: 29 July 2026

PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $8.7B, +4.8% YoY, beat estimates by $230M 

• 2Q26 Non-GAAP EPS:  $1.38, beat estimates by $0.10 

• FY26 Guidance: Raised FY26 non-GAAP EPS guidance to approximately US$5.38 from US$5.31. Management also expects transaction margin dollars of approximately US$15.6B, reflecting continued progress in its turnaround initiatives. 

• Dividends/Share Buybacks: Repurchased approximately US$1.5B of shares during the quarter and paid approximately US$125M in dividends. 

• Comment: This was a solid beat-and-raise quarter. TPV grew 9%, Venmo continued to improve, branded checkout remained stable at 2% growth, Buy Now Pay Later volumes increased 26%, and tap-to-pay adoption grew more than 60%. The turnaround strategy is beginning to translate into better payment volume growth and improving profitability. The key issue remains margin quality. Non-GAAP operating margin declined to 17.4% from 19.8% a year ago as PayPal accelerated investments in AI, marketing and product development while executing a multi-year transformation programme expected to generate approximately US$400M of savings during 2026. In addition, ongoing takeover speculation involving a reported bid from Stripe and Advent International continues to create uncertainty around the long-term strategic direction. Shares rose roughly 4% following the earnings release. The principal variables to monitor are branded checkout growth, Venmo monetisation, transaction margin expansion, AI-driven product adoption, and whether cost savings begin to offset elevated investment spending. 1Q27 recommended trading range: $50 to $70. Neutral Outlook. 

PayPal Holdings, Inc.（PYPL) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：87亿美元，同比增长4.8%，超出预期2.3亿美元 

• 26财年第二季度非公认会计准则每股收益：1.38美元，超出预期0.10美元 

• 26财年全年指引上调：非GAAP EPS指引提升至约5.38美元（原为5.31美元）；预计交易毛利（transaction margin dollars） 

• 股息与回购：本季度回购约15亿美元股票，支付约1.25亿美元股息 

• 短评：本季度为稳健的“超预期+上调指引”表现，标志其转型战略初见成效。总支付额（TPV），Venmo业务持续改善，先买后付（BNPL），Tap-to-Pay线下支付采用率增长超60%，显示产品创新与用户参与度正在回升。尽管品牌结账（branded checkout），但整体支付生态展现韧性。然而，盈利质量仍是焦点问题：非GAAP运营利润率从去年同期的19.8%下滑至17.4%，主因公司正加速投入AI、营销及新产品开发，同时推进一项多年期转型计划（预计2026年产生约4亿美元成本节约）。当前处于“以投资换增长”阶段，短期利润承压。此外，市场持续传闻Stripe与Advent International联合提出收购要约，虽未获证实，但加剧了投资者对PayPal长期战略路径的不确定性——是独立转型，还是成为并购标的？财报后股价上涨约4%，反映市场对基本面改善的认可，但估值仍受制于利润率压力与战略模糊性。后续关键变量包括：（1）品牌结账能否重回增长轨道；（2）Venmo变现效率（广告、订阅、金融产品）；（3）交易毛利能否在规模效应下扩张；（4）AI驱动的新功能（如智能推荐、欺诈防控）；（5）2026年4亿美元成本节约是否如期兑现，抵消高投入影响。PayPal正努力重塑其作为数字支付核心平台的地位，在AI与线下场景拓展中具备潜力，但需证明其能在竞争激烈的支付生态中实现可持续的盈利增长。27财年第一季度建议交易区间：50美元至70美元。中性前景。 

The Boeing Company (BA) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $24.6B, +8.4% YoY, beat estimates by $330M 

• 2Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: –$0.76, miss estimates by $0.45 

• FY26 Guidance: Boeing maintained FY26 free cash flow guidance of US$1B–US$3B. Management reaffirmed plans to increase 737 MAX production to 47 aircraft per month, targeting 57 per month by early 2027, while continuing certification work for the 737-7, 737-10 and 777X programmes. Total backlog reached a record US$715B, including more than 6,200 commercial aircraft. 

• Comment: This was an encouraging operational quarter despite another accounting loss. Commercial deliveries continued to recover, free cash flow turned positive at US$631M, and operating cash flow improved to US$1.36B. Commercial Airplanes and Defense both reported stronger revenue, while production stability continued to improve under CEO Kelly Ortberg’s turnaround plan. The primary weakness remains the defence business. Boeing recorded an additional US$280M charge on the Air Force One (VC-25B) programme, contributing to another quarterly loss. Certification timing for the 737 MAX variants and 777X, supplier execution, and engine availability also remain key operational risks. Nevertheless, investors focused on improving cash generation, higher delivery rates and the record backlog rather than the earnings miss. Shares rose approximately 4.8%–5.0% following the results. The principal variables to monitor are sustained 737 MAX production increases, certification milestones for new aircraft programmes, defence programme execution, supplier stability, and continued free cash flow improvement. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $200 to $260. Neutral Outlook. 

波音公司（BA) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：246亿美元，同比增长8.4%，超出预期3.3亿美元 

• 26财年第二季度非公认会计准则每股亏损：0.76美元，低于预期0.45美元（亏损扩大） 

• 26财年全年指引：维持自由现金流10亿–30亿美元指引；计划将737 MAX产量提升至每月47架，目标2027年初达57架/月；持续推进737-7、737-10和777X机型认证；积压订单创纪录达7150亿美元（含超6200架商用飞机） 

• 短评：本季度运营表现呈现“现金改善、盈利承压”的分化格局。尽管再度录得会计亏损，但自由现金流转正至6.31亿美元，经营性现金流达13.6亿美元，显示生产与交付效率持续恢复。商用飞机与防务业务收入均增长，737 MAX交付稳步爬坡，CEO Kelly Ortberg的扭亏为盈计划初见成效。然而，防务板块仍是拖累主因：公司对空军一号（VC-25B）项目再计提2.8亿美元费用，加剧季度亏损。此外，737 MAX衍生型号（-7/-10）及777X的认证进度、供应链稳定性、发动机供应仍是关键执行风险。市场反应积极——股价上涨4.8%–5.0%，反映投资者更看重现金流拐点、交付回升与创纪录 backlog 所提供的长期能见度，而非短期盈利波动。后续关键变量包括：（1）737 MAX产能能否稳定提升至47+/月；（2）737-10等新机型能否如期获FAA认证；（3）防务项目成本控制是否改善；（4）供应商能否保障零部件及时交付；（5）自由现金流能否在H2持续为正并支撑全年目标。波音正处于从多年危机中复苏的关键阶段，基本面趋势向好，但盈利修复仍需时间。若生产与认证顺利推进，有望逐步重获市场信任。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：200美元至260美元。中性前景。 

The Coca-Cola Company (KO) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $13.4B, +7.2% YoY, beat estimates by $230M 

• 2Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.97, beat estimates by $0.04 

• FY26 Guidance: Raised FY26 organic-revenue guidance to approximately 5% growth from 4%–5%. Comparable currency-neutral EPS growth was upgraded to 7%–8% from 6%–7%, while comparable reported EPS is now expected to increase 9%–10%, versus 8%–9% previously. Free-cash-flow guidance increased to approximately US$12.4B.  

• Dividends/Share Buybacks: Declared a quarterly dividend of US$0.53 per share, payable on 1 October 2026 to shareholders of record on 15 September. 

• Comment: This was a strong beat-and-raise quarter. Global unit-case volume increased 5%, led by India, China, the U.S. and Brazil, while Trademark Coca-Cola volume rose 5% and Coca-Cola Zero Sugar increased 16%. North America delivered 7% organic revenue growth and 12% comparable currency-neutral operating-income growth, demonstrating healthy pricing and operating leverage. The principal concern is the sustainability of volume growth after the World Cup marketing boost. Asia-Pacific price/mix declined 9%, and Coca-Cola lost regional value share as gains in China and Japan were outweighed by weakness in India. Higher aluminium, plastic and other input costs also remain potential margin headwinds. Shares rose approximately 5% after the results, reflecting the earnings beat and upgraded outlook. The key variables are post-World Cup volume retention, affordability initiatives in emerging markets, commodity-cost inflation and continued North American margin expansion. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $78 to $98. Neutral Outlook. 

The Coca-Cola Company（KO) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：134亿美元，同比增长7.2%，超出预期2.3亿美元 

• 26财年第二季度非公认会计准则每股收益：0.97美元，超出预期0.04美元 

• 26财年全年指引全面上调：有机收入增长指引提升至约5%（原为4%–5%）；可比汇率中性EPS增长上调至7%–8%（原为6%–7%）；可比报告EPS增长上调至9%–10%（原为8%–9%）；自由现金流指引提升至约124亿美元 

• 股息：宣布季度股息每股0.53美元，2026年10月1日支付 

• 短评：本季度表现强劲，为典型的“超预期+全面上调指引”组合。全球销量增长5%，由印度、中国、美国和巴西驱动；核心品牌Coca-Cola销量增长5%，零糖产品大增16%，显示产品组合升级与健康化趋势持续推进。北美市场尤为亮眼：有机收入增长7%，运营利润（汇率中性）增长12%，反映健康的提价能力与运营杠杆。然而，市场关注可持续性：世界杯营销活动可能带来短期销量提振，Q3能否维持增长存疑；亚太区价格/组合下降9%，因印度市场疲软拖累整体，导致该区域价值份额流失；铝、塑料等原材料成本仍处高位，构成潜在毛利率压力。财报后股价上涨约5%，反映投资者对盈利质量和指引上调的认可。但作为高股息、低波动的必需消费品龙头，其估值已部分反映稳健预期。后续关键变量包括：（1）世界杯后销量是否回落；（2）新兴市场 affordability 策略（如小包装、平价产品）；（3）大宗商品成本走势；（4）北美高利润率能否持续扩张。可口可乐凭借强大品牌力、全球分销网络与产品创新，在通胀环境中展现韧性。长期增长逻辑稳固，但短期缺乏爆发力。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：78美元至98美元。中性前景。 
   

United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $22.8B, +7.5% YoY, beat estimates by $960M 

• 2Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.76, beat estimates by $0.10 

• FY26 Guidance: Raised FY26 guidance to approximately US$91.2B of revenue, US$8.65B of adjusted operating profit, and US$7.22 of adjusted EPS. Capital expenditure guidance remains US$3.0B, while expected dividend payments remain approximately US$5.4B.  

• Dividends/Share Buybacks: Maintained its quarterly dividend. UPS expects to distribute approximately US$5.4B in dividends during FY26, subject to board approval. 

• Comment: This was a strong beat-and-raise quarter. Revenue exceeded expectations across all three operating segments, with U.S. Domestic adjusted operating profit increasing more than 20% YoY as the company completed its 18-month Amazon volume reduction and network reconfiguration. Revenue per package increased 9.3%, highlighting a successful shift toward higher-margin B2B and healthcare shipments rather than lower-margin volume. The main issue is that investors remain unconvinced the second-half acceleration is fully achievable. Although UPS raised full-year revenue and EPS guidance, the company still faces macroeconomic uncertainty, higher fuel costs and ongoing competition from Amazon and FedEx. The market also focused on approximately US$1.2B of transformation costs incurred during the quarter. Shares fell roughly 5%–6% following the results despite the earnings beat and upgraded outlook. The principal variables to monitor are U.S. domestic margin expansion, growth in healthcare logistics, pricing power, international volume recovery, and successful execution of the post-Amazon network. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $95 to $120. Neutral Outlook. 

United Parcel Service, Inc.（UPS) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：228亿美元，同比增长7.5%，大幅超出预期9.6亿美元 

• 26财年第二季度非公认会计准则每股收益：1.76美元，超出预期0.10美元 

• 26财年全年指引上调：营收上调至约912亿美元；调整后营业利润上调至86.5亿美元；调整后EPS上调至7.22美元；资本开支维持30亿美元；预计全年派息约54亿美元（季度股息维持不变） 

• 短评：本季度为强劲的“全面超预期+指引上调”表现。三大业务板块均贡献营收增长，尤其美国本土业务调整后营业利润同比大增超20%，标志其为期18个月的退出亚马逊低利润包裹业务及网络重构基本完成。单件收入提升9.3%，反映战略成功转向高毛利的B2B、医疗健康等专业物流领域，而非依赖低价电商体积。然而，市场反应负面——股价下跌5%–6%，主因投资者对下半年加速增长的可持续性存疑：尽管指引上调，但宏观不确定性、高燃油成本及来自亚马逊自营物流与FedEx的竞争压力仍在；本季度计入约12亿美元转型成本，显示网络优化仍在进行中，短期盈利或受扰动。后续关键变量包括：（1）美国本土利润率能否在剔除转型成本后持续扩张；（2）医疗健康物流等高增长细分市场渗透率；（3）定价能力在通胀环境中的维持；（4）国际业务量能否随全球贸易回暖而恢复；（5）后亚马逊时代新网络的运营效率与资产回报率。UPS正从“电商包裹承运商”向“高价值供应链解决方案提供商”转型，基本面趋势向好。但市场要求更高确定性以支撑估值修复。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：95美元至120美元。中性前景。 
   

Corning Incorporated (GLW) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $4.74B, +22.8% YoY, beat estimates by $110M 

• 2Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.78, beat estimates by $0.03 

• 3Q26 Guidance: 3Q26 sales are expected to be US$4.9B–US$5.0B, implying approximately 16% YoY growth but slightly below market expectations. Management announced a US$2B capital expansion plan to increase optical-fiber manufacturing capacity in response to AI infrastructure demand. 

• Dividend/Share Buybacks: Declared a quarterly dividend of US$0.28 per share, payable on 29 September 2026. 

• Comment: This was another strong operational quarter. Revenue and core EPS both exceeded expectations, with Optical Communications continuing to be the growth engine as hyperscaler AI spending drove a 32% increase in segment revenue. The recently announced multibillion-dollar supply agreement with Amazon further strengthens long-term visibility for Corning’s fibre and connectivity products. The key issue was not demand, but capacity and mix. Management acknowledged that optical-fibre demand currently exceeds manufacturing capacity and that the company could sell more if it could produce more. At the same time, Gorilla Glass and broader consumer-electronics markets remain weak because of sluggish smartphone demand. Although 3Q revenue guidance still implies double-digit growth, it narrowly missed elevated investor expectations, triggering a sharp sell-off of more than 20%, Corning’s largest one-day decline in over two decades. The principal variables to monitor are the pace of optical-capacity expansion, conversion of AI networking demand into higher-margin revenue, recovery in consumer electronics, and whether optical margins remain strong as production ramps. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $110 to $150. Neutral Outlook. 

Corning Incorporated（GLW) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：47.4亿美元，同比增长22.8%，超出预期1.1亿美元 

• 26财年第二季度非公认会计准则每股收益：0.78美元，小幅超出预期0.03美元 

• 26财年第三季度指引：营收预计49亿–50亿美元（同比+约16%），略低于市场高预期；宣布20亿美元资本扩张计划，用于提升光缆制造产能以应对AI基础设施需求 

• 股息：宣布季度股息每股0.28美元，2026年9月29日支付 

• 短评：本季度运营表现强劲，光通信业务继续作为核心增长引擎，受益于超大规模客户（hyperscalers）对AI数据中心的巨额投入，该板块收入同比大增32%。公司近期与亚马逊签署数十亿美元长期供应协议，显著提升光纤及连接产品未来多年的收入能见度。然而，市场焦点迅速转向供给瓶颈与结构性分化：光缆需求已超过当前产能，管理层坦言“若能生产更多，就能卖出更多”；消费电子板块持续疲软，Gorilla Glass受智能手机需求低迷拖累，成为增长拖累项；尽管Q3指引仍隐含双位数增长，但未能满足已被抬高的市场预期，引发剧烈抛售——股价单日暴跌超20%，创二十多年来最大跌幅。后续关键变量包括：（1）20亿美元扩产计划的执行速度与爬坡效率；（2）AI相关光通信收入能否从“量增”转向“量利双升”（当前毛利率承压于产能紧张与产品组合）；（3）消费电子市场（尤其高端手机）何时回暖；（4）光通信板块在产能释放后能否维持高利润率。Corning作为AI基础设施关键材料供应商，战略地位突出，长期逻辑坚实。但短期估值已高度依赖光通信单一引擎，且消费电子拖累未消，导致市场情绪敏感。若产能扩张顺利、利润率改善，有望重获信心。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：110美元至150美元。中性前景。 
   

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $4.83B, +6.4% YoY, in-line with estimates 

• 2Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $4.21, beat estimates by $0.23 

• FY26 Guidance: Raised FY26 adjusted EPS guidance to US$17.73–US$17.87 from US$17.10–US$17.50, above market expectations. However, FY26 revenue growth guidance was reduced to approximately 9% from 10%, while net yield growth guidance was narrowed to 2.35%–2.85% due to geopolitical-related booking softness on selected itineraries. 

• Comment: This was another strong execution quarter. Revenue, EPS and onboard spending all exceeded expectations, supported by stronger-than-expected close-in bookings and continued pricing power. Booking volumes remain above last year’s levels and the company continues to achieve record pricing, demonstrating that premium cruise demand remains resilient despite macro uncertainty. The main concern is geopolitical disruption rather than demand destruction. Middle East tensions have softened bookings for certain Mediterranean itineraries and prompted management to trim its full-year revenue growth outlook. Even so, higher onboard spending, resilient Caribbean demand and lower expected fuel costs more than offset these headwinds, allowing management to raise full-year EPS guidance. Investors focused on the earnings upgrade rather than the modest revenue cut, with shares rising roughly 5% following the results. The principal variables to monitor are booking trends for 2027, the pace of recovery in Mediterranean itineraries, onboard spending per passenger, fuel costs and continued pricing power as additional capacity enters the market. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $280 to $370. Neutral Outlook. 

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.（RCL) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：48.3亿美元，同比增长6.4%，符合预期 

• 26财年第二季度非公认会计准则每股收益：4.21美元，超出预期0.23美元 

• 26财年全年指引调整：上调调整后EPS至17.73–17.87美元（原为17.10–17.50美元），高于市场预期；但将全年营收增长指引下调至约9%（原为10%）；净收益率（net yield） 

• 短评：本季度再次展现卓越的运营执行力。尽管地缘政治扰动存在，营收、盈利及船上消费均超预期，得益于临近预订（close-in bookings）表现强劲和持续的定价能力。当前预订量仍高于去年同期，且实现创纪录的票价水平，印证高端邮轮需求在宏观不确定性下依然坚韧。然而，地缘风险正影响部分航线需求：中东局势紧张导致地中海部分航次预订放缓，迫使公司小幅下调全年营收与净收益率指引。值得肯定的是，加勒比海航线需求稳健、船上人均消费提升、燃油成本预期下降，共同抵消了区域扰动，支撑EPS指引上调。财报后股价上涨约5%，反映市场更关注盈利上调与需求韧性，而非小幅营收修正。后续关键变量包括：（1）2027年航次预订趋势是否延续强势；（2）地中海航线需求能否随局势缓和而恢复；（3）船上人均消费能否维持高位；（4）燃油价格是否保持下行趋势；（5）在新船交付增加供给的背景下，公司能否维持定价权。Royal Caribbean凭借品牌溢价、产品创新（如Icon级邮轮）和动态定价能力，在行业中占据领先地位。短期虽受地缘因素扰动，但基本面健康，盈利能见度高。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：280美元至370美元。中性前景。 
   

Bloom Energy Corporation (BE) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $1.07B, +166.7% YoY, beat estimates by $242.98M 

• 2Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.78, beat estimates by $0.37 

• FY26 Guidance: Raised FY26 revenue guidance to US$3.9B–US$4.2B from US$3.4B–US$3.8B, and increased adjusted EPS guidance to US$2.55–US$2.85 from US$1.85–US$2.25. Management cited accelerating demand from hyperscalers, AI labs, neocloud providers and colocation customers. 

• Comment: This was an exceptional quarter. Revenue exceeded US$1 billion for the first time, adjusted EPS nearly doubled Street expectations, and product gross margin expanded materially. Management indicated that Bloom’s fuel-cell platform is increasingly becoming a preferred on-site power solution for AI data centres as customers seek faster deployment than conventional grid expansion. Backlog also continued to strengthen with new business from major hyperscalers and AI infrastructure customers. The key positive is the dramatic improvement in forward visibility. The sizeable guidance increase implies approximately 100% revenue growth at the midpoint for FY26, supported by both backlog conversion and continued order intake. Investors also welcomed Bloom’s expanding AI infrastructure partnerships, including large-scale deployment opportunities with Brookfield and major cloud customers. Shares rose approximately 13% in after-hours trading following the results. The principal variables to monitor are execution on manufacturing capacity, gross-margin sustainability as volumes scale, conversion of AI-related backlog into revenue, and competitive dynamics in distributed power generation. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $130 to $250. Neutral Outlook. 

Bloom Energy Corporation（BE) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：10.7亿美元，同比增长166.7%，大幅超出预期2.43亿美元 

• 26财年第二季度非公认会计准则每股收益：0.78美元，显著超出预期0.37美元 

• 26财年全年指引大幅上调：营收指引提升至39亿–42亿美元（原为34亿–38亿美元）；调整后EPS指引上调至2.55–2.85美元（原为1.85–2.25美元）；上调主因超大规模客户（hyperscalers） 
• 短评：本季度表现极为强劲，创下公司历史里程碑——首次单季营收突破10亿美元，盈利近乎翻倍于市场预期，产品毛利率显著扩张。核心驱动力来自AI数据中心对现场分布式电源（on-site power）的迫切需求：相比传统电网扩容，Bloom的固体氧化物燃料电池（SOFC）可实现更快部署、更高能效与低碳排放，正成为AI算力基础设施的关键能源解决方案。公司 backlog 持续增强，近期赢得多家头部云服务商及AI实验室的大额订单，并与Brookfield等能源基础设施巨头深化合作，开启大规模部署机会。全年指引中值隐含约100%的营收增长，显示高增长不仅源于现有订单转化，更受益于持续强劲的新订单流入。财报后盘后股价大涨约13%，反映市场对Bloom从“清洁能源概念股”向“AI电力刚需供应商”转型的认可。然而，高速增长伴随执行挑战：制造产能能否匹配订单爆发？毛利率在快速扩产中能否维持高位？面对卡特彼勒、氢能方案及其他分布式发电技术的竞争，Bloom的技术与成本优势是否可持续？后续关键变量包括：（1）产能爬坡进度与供应链保障；（2）AI相关 backlog 向收入的转化效率；（3）规模化下的毛利率稳定性；（4）与云厂商长期PPA（购电协议）。Bloom Energy正处于需求爆发拐点，在AI驱动的能源范式变革中占据独特生态位。若执行顺利，有望成为分布式清洁电力领域的“隐形冠军”。但高估值已部分透支乐观预期，需持续兑现以支撑上行。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：130美元至250美元。中性前景
   

Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) 

• 4Q26 Revenue: $3.63B, +48.8% YoY, beat estimates by $140M 

• 4Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $5.71, beat estimates by $0.62 

• 1Q27 Guidance: 1Q27 revenue is guided to approximately US$4.10B ± US$100M, above consensus of approximately US$3.8B. Adjusted EPS guidance is US$7.30 ± US$0.20, also materially ahead of expectations. 

• Comment: This was an exceptional quarter. Revenue increased 49% YoY while adjusted EPS more than doubled, reflecting robust cloud and hyperscaler demand for high-capacity HDDs. Gross margin and free cash flow continued to improve as pricing remained firm and HAMR (Heat-Assisted Magnetic Recording) products gained traction. AI infrastructure continues to create incremental storage demand rather than replacing HDDs, benefiting Seagate’s enterprise business. The key positive is visibility. Management issued guidance substantially above expectations and reiterated that supply of mass-capacity HDDs remains constrained while hyperscalers continue expanding AI infrastructure. Investors had become concerned that recent weakness across AI hardware names would spread to storage, but these results suggest storage demand remains one of the strongest parts of the AI supply chain. Shares rose approximately 8% in after-hours trading following the earnings release. The principal variables to monitor are hyperscaler capex trends, HAMR adoption, enterprise HDD pricing, manufacturing capacity expansion and whether AI storage demand remains durable through 2027. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $700 to $900. Neutral Outlook. 

Seagate Technology Holdings plc（STX)  

• 26财年第四季度营收：36.3亿美元，同比增长48.8%，超出预期1.4亿美元 

• 26财年第四季度非公认会计准则每股收益：5.71美元，显著超出预期0.62美元 

• 27财年第一季度指引：营收约41亿美元（±1亿美元），远高于市场共识的38亿美元；调整后EPS约7.30美元（±0.20美元），大幅超预期 

• 短评：本季度表现极为强劲，验证存储在AI基础设施中的关键地位。营收近翻倍增长，盈利同比翻倍以上，主要受益于云服务商与超大规模客户（hyperscalers）对大容量企业级硬盘（HDD）的强劲需求。AI训练与推理不仅未替代HDD，反而因海量数据存储需求创造了增量市场，推动Seagate企业业务显著复苏。技术层面，HAMR（热辅助磁记录）正加速商用，支撑更高容量产品溢价；同时，HDD供应持续紧张，叠加定价坚挺，推动毛利率与自由现金流持续改善。最大亮点在于前瞻性指引大幅超预期，打消市场对“AI硬件需求扩散至存储板块”的担忧。管理层明确表示，大容量HDD供需缺口仍将延续，而AI数据中心扩张正驱动结构性需求增长，为未来几个季度提供高能见度。财报后盘后股价上涨约8%，反映投资者对Seagate作为AI存储核心受益者的重新定价。后续关键变量包括：（1）超大规模客户资本开支是否维持高位；（2）HAMR技术渗透率与良率提升节奏；（3）企业级HDD价格能否在供需紧平衡下保持稳定；（4）制造产能扩张能否匹配订单需求；（5）AI相关存储需求在2027年前的可持续性。Seagate已从周期低谷强势反弹，成为AI数据爆炸时代的关键基础设施供应商。尽管估值已回升，但若需求与执行持续兑现，仍有上行空间。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：700美元至900美元。中性前景。 

Enphase Energy, Inc. (ENPH) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $291.9M, -19.6% YoY, beat estimates by $1.6M 

• 2Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.46, in-line with estimates  

• 3Q26 Guidance: 3Q26 revenue is guided to US$290M–US$320M, with the midpoint modestly above consensus expectations. Safe-harbor revenue more than doubled sequentially to US$84.3M, helping offset continued weakness in the residential solar market. 

• Comment: This was a modestly better-than-feared quarter. Revenue slightly exceeded expectations, EPS met forecasts, and non-GAAP gross margin improved sequentially, indicating that cost controls and product mix continue to support profitability despite a challenging residential solar environment. The sharp increase in safe-harbor revenue also provided an important near-term demand buffer. The key concern remains demand visibility. Core residential solar installations remain subdued across major markets, while the reported 60% GAAP gross margin benefited from approximately US$45.4M of tariff refunds, inflating reported profitability by roughly 15.6 percentage points. Investors therefore remain focused on underlying demand recovery rather than headline margins. Initial after-hours trading was positive, with shares rising about 4% following the release. The principal variables to monitor are U.S. residential solar demand, inventory normalization at installers, adoption of IQ Battery and EV charging products, international growth, and whether non-GAAP gross margins can continue improving without one-off tariff benefits. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $30 to $50. Neutral Outlook. 

Enphase Energy, Inc.（ENPH) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：2.919亿美元，同比下降19.6%，小幅超出预期160万美元 

• 26财年第二季度非公认会计准则每股收益：0.46美元，符合预期 

• 26财年第三季度指引：营收2.9亿–3.2亿美元（中值略高于市场共识）；Safe Harbor收入环比增长超一倍至8430万美元，部分对冲住宅太阳能市场疲软 

• 短评：本季度表现“略好于悲观预期”，在极具挑战的环境中展现韧性。尽管住宅太阳能安装需求持续低迷，公司通过严格成本控制、产品组合优化（如高毛利电池与EV充电产品）及Safe Harbor项目交付（利用过往关税预付锁定组件供应），支撑了盈利稳定。非GAAP毛利率环比改善，显示运营效率仍在提升。然而，GAAP毛利率高达60%的部分原因是一次性关税退款约4540万美元，若剔除该因素，实际毛利率约44.4%，更反映真实盈利能力。因此，投资者聚焦于终端需求能否实质性复苏，而非受惠于非经常性项目的表观利润。财报后盘后股价上涨约4%，反映市场对“最坏时刻或已过去”的初步认可，但信心仍脆弱。后续关键变量包括：（1）美国住宅太阳能装机量是否触底反弹；（2）渠道库存是否完成去化（当前仍偏高）；（3）IQ Battery储能与EV充电产品的渗透率提升速度；（4）欧洲、亚太等国际市场的增长贡献；（5）非GAAP毛利率能否在无一次性收益下继续扩张。Enphase作为微逆龙头，技术与品牌优势稳固，但在行业去库存与利率高企背景下，短期增长受限。若2026下半年需求回暖叠加新产品放量，有望开启新一轮增长。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：30美元至50美元。中性前景。 

KLA Corp. (KLAC) 

• 4Q26 Revenue: $3.66B, +15.1% YoY, beat estimates by $60M 

• 4Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.05, beat estimates by $0.05 

• 1Q27 Guidance: Expect revenue of $4B, plus or minus $200M, ahead of analysts’ average estimate of $3.92B and adjusted earnings of $1.16 per share, plus or minus 10 cents, for the quarter, also ahead of an estimate of $1.14 

• Comment: KLA reported a solid fourth quarter, with revenue rising 15.1% YoY to US$3.66bn and adjusted EPS of US$1.05, both exceeding market expectations, driven by sustained demand from foundries and memory manufacturers investing in advanced semiconductor capacity for AI applications. The company also issued stronger-than-expected fiscal first-quarter guidance, forecasting revenue of approximately US$4.0bn and adjusted EPS of around US$1.16, supported by continued investment in semiconductor manufacturing and process control solutions. Despite the earnings beat, shares declined after the results as investors had anticipated a more significant upside following the stock’s strong rally earlier in the year. KLA remains well-positioned to benefit from the continued expansion of AI infrastructure, increasing semiconductor capital expenditure and the growing complexity of advanced chip manufacturing, which are driving demand for its process control and yield management solutions. Management expects business momentum to accelerate through the second half of 2026 and continue into 2027, with advanced packaging representing an additional growth opportunity alongside leading-edge logic and memory investments. However, investor sentiment, the pace of hyperscaler spending, competitive dynamics in China and the cyclicality of semiconductor capital expenditure remain key factors to monitor. 1Q27 recommended trading range: $150 to $200. Neutral Outlook. 

KLA公司（KLAC) 

• 26财年第四季度营收：36.6亿美元，同比增长15.1%，优于预期6000万美元 

• 26财年第四季度非公认会计准则每股收益：1.05美元，优于预期0.05美元 

• 27财年第一季度指引：预计营收为40亿美元，上下浮动2亿美元，高于分析师平均预期的39.2亿美元；预计该季度调整后每股收益约为1.16美元，上下浮动0.10美元，亦高于预期的1.14美元 

• 短评：KLA公布了稳健的第四季度业绩，营收同比增长15.1%至36.6亿美元，调整后每股收益为1.05美元，双双超出市场预期，这得益于晶圆代工厂和存储制造商为AI应用投资先进半导体产能所带来的持续需求。公司还发布了强于预期的2027财年第一季度指引，预计营收约为40亿美元，调整后每股收益约为1.16美元，这得益于对半导体制造和工艺控制解决方案的持续投资。尽管业绩超出预期，但由于投资者此前预期在股价年初强劲上涨后会有更大幅度的上行惊喜，财报发布后股价有所下跌。KLA有望继续受益于AI基础设施的持续扩张、半导体资本支出的增加以及先进芯片制造日益增长的复杂性，这些因素均推动了对该公司工艺控制和良率管理解决方案的需求。管理层预计业务势头将在2026年下半年加速并延续至2027年，先进封装将成为除前沿逻辑和存储投资之外的又一增长机遇。然而，投资者情绪、超大规模云服务商支出节奏、中国市场的竞争动态以及半导体资本支出的周期性仍是需要关注的关键因素。27财年第一季度建议交易区间：150美元至200美元。中性前景。 

Visa Inc. (V) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: $11.6B, +13.7% YoY, beat estimates by $200M 

• 3Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $3.32, beat estimates by $0.09 

• 4Q26 Guidance: Expect net revenue growth in the high end of the low double digits, similar to Q3 on an adjusted basis. Operating expense growth is expected in the low double digits, while EPS growth is expected in the low end of the mid-teens. 

• FY26 Guidance: Raised outlook net revenue growth in the low end of the low teens, operating expense growth in the low end of the low teens and EPS growth in the low end of the mid-teens. It also expects full-year non-operating expense of about $165M and a tax rate between 18% and 18.25%. 

• Dividend/Share Buybacks: The company repurchased approximately 14.5M shares at an average cost of $330.71 per share, totaling $4.9B, and had $28.4B in remaining authorized funds for share repurchases as of June 30. The board also declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.670 per share, payable September 1 to holders of record as of August 11. 

• Comment: Visa delivered a strong fiscal third quarter, with net revenue rising 14% YoY to US$11.6bn and non-GAAP EPS increasing 11% to US$3.32, supported by resilient consumer and business spending. Payments volume, processed transactions and cross-border volumes grew 10%, 10% and 13% respectively, while strength across consumer payments, commercial solutions, money movement and value-added services drove broad-based revenue growth. The company also continued returning capital to shareholders through US$6.2bn of share repurchases and dividends. During the quarter, Visa announced plans to reduce approximately 7% of its workforce, primarily across technology and product teams, as it leverages AI and organisational efficiencies to reallocate resources towards higher-growth opportunities. Visa remains well-positioned to benefit from the continued shift towards digital payments, resilient global consumer spending and increasing adoption of commercial payments, cross-border transactions and value-added services. Management expects ongoing investments in AI and operational efficiency to support productivity and long-term profitability, while the company’s transaction-based business model provides resilience against credit cycle risks. However, consumer spending trends, cross-border travel activity, regulatory developments and the pace of AI-driven execution remain key factors to monitor. 4Q26 recommended trading range: $320 to $370. Neutral Outlook. 

Visa公司（V) 

• 26财年第三季度营收：116亿美元，同比增长13.7%，优于预期2亿美元 

• 26财年第三季度非公认会计准则每股收益：3.32美元，优于预期0.09美元 

• 26财年第四季度指引：预计净营收增长处于低双位数的高端，经调整后与第三季度类似。预计运营支出增长处于低双位数，而每股收益增长预计处于中双位数的低端。 

• 26财年全年指引：上调展望，预计净营收增长处于低双位数的低端，运营支出增长处于低双位数的低端，每股收益增长处于中双位数的低端。公司还预计全年非运营支出约为1.65亿美元，税率在18%至18.25%之间。 

• 股息/股票回购：公司回购了约1450万股，平均成本为每股330.71美元，总计49亿美元；截至6月30日，剩余授权回购资金为284亿美元。董事会还宣布每股季度现金股息0.670美元，将于9月1日派发给8月11日登记在册的股东。 

• 短评：Visa第三财季业绩强劲，净营收同比增长14%至116亿美元，非公认会计准则每股收益增长11%至3.32美元，这得益于消费者和企业支出的韧性。支付量、处理交易笔数和跨境交易量分别增长10%、10%和13%，而消费者支付、商业解决方案、资金流转和增值服务的全面强劲表现推动了广泛的收入增长。公司还继续通过62亿美元的股票回购和股息向股东返还资本。本季度，Visa宣布计划裁员约7%，主要集中在技术和产品团队，因为公司正利用AI和组织效率将资源重新配置到更高增长的机会上。Visa有望继续受益于数字支付的持续转型、全球消费者支出的韧性以及商业支付、跨境交易和增值服务的日益普及。管理层预计，对AI和运营效率的持续投资将支持生产率和长期盈利能力，而公司基于交易的商业模式使其能够抵御信贷周期风险。然而，消费者支出趋势、跨境旅行活动、监管发展以及AI驱动执行的步伐仍是需要关注的关键因素。26财年第四季度建议交易区间：320美元至370美元。中性前景。 

Teradyne Inc. (TER) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $1.33B, +104.1% YoY, beat estimates by $110M 

• 2Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.47, beat estimates by $0.42 

• 3Q26 Guidance: Expect revenue of $1.2B to $1.3B, above the consensus estimate of $1.026B and adjusted earnings in the range of $1.85 to $2.15 per share for the quarter, also ahead of an estimate of $1.53. 

• Comment: Teradyne delivered another record quarter, with Q2 revenue more than doubling YoY to US$1.33bn and adjusted EPS of US$2.47, comfortably exceeding market expectations, driven by robust AI-related semiconductor demand and record memory test revenue supported by strong DRAM demand and a recovery in NAND final test. The company’s Semiconductor Test segment remained the key growth driver, while Product Test and Robotics also contributed to overall performance. Management issued well-above-consensus Q3 guidance, forecasting revenue of US$1.20bn-1.30bn and adjusted EPS of US$1.85-2.15, reflecting continued strength in AI-driven chip testing demand and increasing investment in wafer fabrication equipment. Teradyne is well-positioned to benefit from the continued expansion of AI infrastructure, increasing semiconductor complexity and rising investment in wafer fabrication equipment, all of which are driving demand for advanced automated test equipment. Management expects AI-related demand to remain robust in the near term, while accelerating wafer fab investments provide a favourable backdrop for sustained growth into 2027 and beyond. However, the pace of semiconductor capital expenditure, memory market conditions and broader industry cyclicality remain key factors that could influence future growth. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $340 to $400. Neutral Outlook. 

泰瑞达公司（TER)  

• 26财年第二季度营收：13.3亿美元，同比增长104.1%，优于预期1.1亿美元 

• 26财年第二季度非公认会计准则每股收益：2.47美元，优于预期0.42美元 

• 26财年第三季度指引：预计营收为12亿至13亿美元，高于市场共识预期的10.26亿美元；预计该季度调整后每股收益为1.85至2.15美元，亦高于预期的1.53美元。 

• 短评：泰瑞达再次创下纪录季度，第二季度营收同比翻倍有余至13.3亿美元，调整后每股收益为2.47美元，轻松超出市场预期，这得益于强劲的AI相关半导体需求以及创纪录的存储测试收入，后者受DRAM需求强劲和NAND最终测试复苏的支撑。公司半导体测试部门仍是关键增长驱动力，同时产品测试和机器人业务也为整体业绩做出贡献。管理层发布了远高于市场共识的第三季度指引，预计营收为12亿至13亿美元，调整后每股收益为1.85至2.15美元，反映出AI驱动的芯片测试需求持续强劲以及晶圆制造设备投资不断增加。泰瑞达有望继续受益于AI基础设施的持续扩张、半导体复杂性的提升以及晶圆制造设备投资的增加，所有这些因素都在推动对先进自动化测试设备的需求。管理层预计近期AI相关需求将保持强劲，同时加速的晶圆厂投资为2027年及以后的持续增长提供了有利背景。然而，半导体资本支出节奏、存储市场状况以及更广泛的行业周期性仍是可能影响未来增长的关键因素。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：340美元至400美元。中性前景。 

Ford Motor Co. (F) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $48.3B, beat estimates by $2.83B 

• 2Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.42, beat estimates by $0.07 

• FY26 Guidance: Raised full-year adjusted EBIT to between $10B and $11B, up from $8.5B to $10.5B. It also raised its expectations for adjusted free cash flow to $6B to $7B, up from $5B to $6B.  

• Dividends/Share Buyback: Declared $0.15/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous, payable on 1 September. 

• Comment: Ford delivered a stronger-than-expected second quarter, with adjusted EPS of US$0.42 beating consensus despite automotive revenue of US$44.89bn coming in below expectations and total revenue declining 4% YoY to US$48.3bn. Performance was supported by operational improvements, resilient pricing and a favourable mix of higher-margin vehicles, while Ford also benefited from progress in restoring F-Series production and containing material and warranty costs. Although the company reported a US$1.3bn net loss due largely to US$4.2bn of one-off charges related to its electric-vehicle restructuring, management raised FY2026 guidance for adjusted EBIT to US$10bn-11bn and adjusted free cash flow to US$6bn-7bn, while narrowing expected Model e losses to approximately US$4bn. Looking ahead, Ford should benefit from normalising F-Series production, continued cost reductions, lower EV losses and strength in its traditional and fleet businesses, although execution on its restructuring, recall-related costs, tariff exposure and any weakening in vehicle demand remain key risks to the earnings recovery. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $14 to $17. Neutral Outlook. 

福特汽车公司（F) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：b 

• 26财年第二季度非公认会计准则每股收益：0.42美元，优于预期0.07美元 

• 26财年全年指引：将全年调整后息税前利润上调至100亿至110亿美元，此前为85亿至105亿美元。同时将调整后自由现金流预期上调至60亿至70亿美元，此前为50亿至60亿美元。 

• 股息/股票回购：宣布每股0.15美元季度股息，与此前持平，将于9月1日派发。 

• 短评：福特汽车第二季度业绩强于预期，调整后每股收益为0.42美元，超出市场共识，尽管汽车业务营收448.9亿美元低于预期，且总营收同比下降4%至483亿美元。业绩得益于运营改善、定价保持韧性以及高利润车型有利的产品组合，同时福特在恢复F系列皮卡生产和控制材料及保修成本方面也取得进展。尽管公司报告净亏损13亿美元，主要与电动汽车业务重组相关的42亿美元一次性费用有关，但管理层将2026财年调整后息税前利润指引上调至100亿至110亿美元，调整后自由现金流上调至60亿至70亿美元，同时将Model e预期亏损收窄至约40亿美元。展望未来，福特应能受益于F系列皮卡生产的正常化、持续的成本削减、电动汽车亏损降低以及传统业务和车队业务的强劲表现，尽管重组执行、召回相关成本、关税风险以及汽车需求可能出现的任何疲软仍是盈利复苏的关键风险。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：14美元至17美元。中性前景。