Technical Analysis: 28 October 2026

United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: Revenue US$22.9bn, +6.7% YoY; approximately US$630m above US$22.27bn consensus. Growth was recorded across all three reporting businesses. 

• 3Q26 EPS: Non-GAAP adjusted diluted EPS US$1.69 versus US$1.74, down 2.9%; beat US$1.62 consensus by US$0.07. GAAP diluted EPS US$1.37; net adjusting charges US$0.32/share. 

• 4Q26 Guidance: Revenue approximately US$25.7bn and adjusted operating profit approximately US$3.3bn, both raised. The release did not provide a standalone Q4 EPS target. 

• FY26 Guidance: Revenue raised to approximately US$92.6bn from US$91.2bn; adjusted operating profit approximately US$8.75bn and adjusted EPS approximately US$7.28, versus prior EPS US$7.22. Adjusted free cash flow target approximately US$6.1bn; capex US$3.0bn. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: FY26 dividend payments expected at approximately US$5.4bn, subject to board approval. The results release did not announce a new share-buyback authorisation. 

• Comment: UPS’s stronger pricing and higher holiday-quarter outlook suggest that its network changes are producing benefits, but the decline in adjusted EPS keeps our view neutral. U.S. revenue per piece rose 6.1%, helping revenue growth exceed the underlying volume trend. International pricing was also strong, while healthcare and forwarding supported Supply Chain Solutions sales. The profit picture was less uniform: adjusted Supply Chain Solutions operating profit fell sharply despite higher revenue. This limits the case for treating the headline sales beat as broad earnings acceleration. Transformation charges and the goodwill impairment also highlight the cost of repositioning the network. The raised Q4 revenue and operating-profit targets provide a more encouraging near-term signal, but holiday execution must still meet that higher bar. Fuel, labour costs and shifts in customer mix can materially affect incremental margins. Shares closed at US$106.09 on 27 October, up 5.75%, reflecting relief over the outlook. The valuation appears more balanced after that move, with the dividend offering support but also placing demands on cash generation. Sustained upside requires better profit conversion rather than pricing alone. Watch domestic volumes, revenue per piece, peak-season service, Supply Chain Solutions margins and free-cash-flow coverage of dividends. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$98–120. Neutral Outlook. 
  
  

联合包裹 (UPS) 

• 2026财年第三季度营收：收入229亿美元，同比增长6.7%；较222.7亿美元预期高约6.3亿美元。三个报告业务均录得收入增长。 

• 2026财年第三季度每股收益：非GAAP经调整摊薄每股盈利1.69美元，去年1.74美元，下降2.9%；较1.62美元预期高0.07美元。GAAP摊薄每股盈利1.37美元；净调整费用为每股0.32美元。 

• 2026财年第四季度指引：收入约257亿美元，经调整经营利润约33亿美元，两者均上调。业绩公告未提供独立第四季度每股盈利目标。 

• 2026财年指引：收入由约912亿美元上调至926亿美元；经调整经营利润约87.5亿美元，经调整每股盈利约7.28美元，此前每股盈利为7.22美元。经调整自由现金流目标约61亿美元；资本开支30亿美元。 

• 股息与回购：2026年预计支付股息约54亿美元，须董事会批准。业绩公告未宣布新的股份回购授权。 

• 短评：联合包裹定价改善及旺季指引上调，显示网络调整正产生效益，但经调整每股盈利下降使我们维持中性。美国业务每件包裹收入增长6.1%，支持收入增速超过基础货量趋势。国际定价亦强劲，医疗及货运代理带动供应链解决方案销售。不过，利润表现并不均衡：供应链解决方案经调整经营利润在收入增长下明显下降，限制了将销售超预期视为全面盈利加速的依据。转型费用及商誉减值亦反映网络重整成本。第四季度收入及经营利润目标上调带来较积极信号，但旺季执行仍须达到更高要求。燃油、人工成本及客户结构变化均会影响增量利润率。股价于10月27日收报106.09美元，上涨5.75%，反映市场对前景的忧虑缓和。上涨后估值更趋均衡，股息提供支持，同时亦要求持续现金创造。持续上行需要更好的利润转化，而非仅靠提价。应关注美国货量、每件收入、旺季服务、供应链业务利润率及自由现金流对股息的覆盖。2026年第四季度建议交易区间：98–120美元。中性前景。 

The Coca-Cola Company (KO) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: Net revenue approximately US$13.4bn, +7% YoY; approximately US$480m above US$12.92bn consensus. Organic revenue +7%; global unit case volume +5%. 

• 3Q26 EPS: Comparable non-GAAP EPS US$0.91, +11% YoY; beat US$0.88 consensus by US$0.03. GAAP EPS US$0.93, +8% YoY. 

• 4Q26 Guidance: No standalone Q4 revenue or EPS growth target provided. Comparable revenue considerations: approximately 1% currency tailwind and 4% divestiture headwind. Comparable EPS: approximately 4% currency tailwind and 3% divestiture headwind. 

• FY26 Guidance: Organic revenue growth raised to at least 5% from approximately 5%; comparable EPS growth at least 11% from 9–10%. Currency-neutral EPS growth excluding acquisitions/divestitures at least 9% from 7–8%. Free cash flow at least US$13.0bn from approximately US$12.4bn. Full FY27 guidance deferred until Q4 results. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: Quarterly dividend US$0.53/share, payable 15 December to holders of record on 1 December. No new buyback authorisation announced in the reviewed Q3 release. 

• Comment: Coca-Cola’s volume-led growth is a stronger signal than another price-driven quarter, although valuation leaves our outlook neutral. Global unit case volume grew 5% with only 1% price/mix growth, suggesting that demand is contributing more meaningfully to the revenue base. Comparable operating margin expanded to 32.9% from 31.9%, showing that growth is reaching profit despite higher marketing investment. However, North American volume was flat, so the improvement was geographically uneven. Concentrate shipment timing also lifted reported organic growth relative to consumer volume and should not be extrapolated indefinitely. Higher earnings and cash-flow guidance strengthen the defensive investment case, while currency helps the near-term comparison. Bottling divestitures will reduce reported revenue and complicate comparisons into 2027; those changes should be assessed separately from underlying brand demand. Shares closed at US$91.18 on 27 October, down 1.64%, despite the beat and guidance increase. That reaction suggests that strong execution was already partly anticipated. Brand strength, distribution reach and recurring cash generation support a premium valuation, but sustainable upside requires volume momentum to persist without sacrificing affordability or marketing effectiveness. Watch North American demand, emerging-market currency, concentrate timing, bottling disposals and cash conversion. The dividend remains attractive as a source of recurring return, but it does not eliminate valuation risk. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$82–98. Neutral Outlook. 
  
  

可口可乐 (KO) 

• 2026财年第三季度营收：净收入约134亿美元，同比增长7%；较129.2亿美元预期高约4.8亿美元。有机收入增长7%；全球单位箱销量增长5%。 

• 2026财年第三季度每股收益：可比非GAAP每股盈利0.91美元，同比增长11%；较0.88美元预期高0.03美元。GAAP每股盈利0.93美元，增长8%。 

• 2026财年第四季度指引：未提供独立第四季度收入或每股盈利增速目标。可比收入考虑因素包括约1%汇率利好及4%出售业务拖累；可比每股盈利包括约4%汇率利好及3%出售业务拖累。 

• 2026财年指引：有机收入增速由约5%上调至至少5%；可比每股盈利增速由9–10%上调至至少11%。剔除收购及出售业务的固定汇率每股盈利增速由7–8%上调至至少9%。自由现金流由约124亿美元上调至至少130亿美元。完整2027年指引将在第四季度业绩时提供。 

• 股息与回购：季度股息每股0.53美元，12月15日支付，登记日12月1日。所审阅第三季度公告未宣布新的回购授权。 

• 短评：可口可乐以销量带动的增长较单纯提价更具说服力，但估值使我们维持中性。全球单位箱销量增长5%，价格及结构仅增长1%，显示需求对收入贡献更明显。可比经营利润率由31.9%升至32.9%，证明在增加营销投入的同时，增长仍能转化为利润。不过，北美销量持平，改善并不均衡。浓缩液发货时点亦令有机收入增速高于终端销量，不宜持续外推。盈利及现金流指引上调强化防御性投资逻辑，汇率亦有利近期比较。装瓶业务出售将减少报告收入，并令2027年比较更复杂，应与品牌基础需求分别评估。尽管业绩超预期并上调指引，股价于10月27日收报91.18美元，下跌1.64%，显示市场已部分反映强劲执行。品牌、分销网络及经常性现金创造支持估值溢价，但持续上行需要销量保持增长，同时兼顾可负担性及营销效率。应关注北美需求、新兴市场汇率、浓缩液时点、装瓶业务出售及现金转化。股息仍提供经常性回报，但不能消除估值风险。2026年第四季度建议交易区间：82–98美元。中性前景。 

Corning Incorporated (GLW) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: Core non-GAAP sales US$5.081bn, +19% YoY; approximately US$51m above US$5.03bn core-sales consensus. GAAP sales US$4.855bn, +18%. 

• 3Q26 EPS: Core non-GAAP EPS US$0.91 versus US$0.67, +36%; beat US$0.88 consensus by US$0.03. GAAP diluted EPS US$0.78 versus US$0.50, +56%. 

• 4Q26 Guidance: Core sales US$5.2–5.3bn, approximately +19% YoY; core EPS US$0.96–1.00, approximately +36% at the midpoint. 

• FY26 Guidance: The company did not provide a standalone full-year revenue or EPS range in the Q3 release. Its Q4 forecast and longer-term Springboard targets are separate disclosures. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: Quarterly dividend rate US$0.28/share. No new buyback authorisation identified in the Q3 release. Q3 operating cash flow US$1.06bn and adjusted free cash flow US$661m. 

• Comment: Corning’s optical growth and margin expansion strengthen the earnings outlook, but the market already assigns substantial value to its AI exposure. Optical Communications sales rose 44% to US$2.379bn, while segment net income rose 80%, demonstrating strong profit conversion. Higher core gross and operating margins also indicate that the improvement extends beyond revenue alone. However, Glass Innovations sales declined and Solar remained loss-making, so the portfolio has materially different earnings profiles. AI-related demand cannot be used to assume uniform strength across the group. The Q4 outlook points to further growth and supports confidence in the near-term earnings path. Capacity expansion, customer commitments and cash generation now become more important than announcements alone. Adjusted free cash flow was positive, but investors should monitor how much incremental operating cash must be reinvested to deliver the optical opportunity. Shares closed at US$126.30 on 27 October, down 1.13%. The muted reaction despite the beat suggests a demanding starting point for expectations. We retain a neutral outlook: the operating trend is positive, but the valuation offers less protection if customer deployment timing or margins disappoint. Watch optical capacity utilisation, customer concentration, pricing, Glass Innovations demand, Solar losses and conversion of operating profit into free cash flow. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$110–145. Neutral Outlook. 
  
  

康宁 (GLW) 

• 2026财年第三季度营收：核心非GAAP销售50.81亿美元，同比增长19%；较50.3亿美元核心销售预期高约5,100万美元。GAAP销售48.55亿美元，增长18%。 

• 2026财年第三季度每股收益：核心非GAAP每股盈利0.91美元，去年0.67美元，增长36%；较0.88美元预期高0.03美元。GAAP摊薄每股盈利0.78美元，去年0.50美元，增长56%。 

• 2026财年第四季度指引：核心销售52亿–53亿美元，同比增长约19%；核心每股盈利0.96–1.00美元，中值同比增长约36%。 

• 2026财年指引：公司未在第三季度公告提供独立全年收入或每股盈利区间。第四季度预测与较长期Springboard目标属于不同披露。 

• 股息与回购：季度股息水平为每股0.28美元。第三季度公告未见新的回购授权。经营现金流10.6亿美元，经调整自由现金流6.61亿美元。 

• 短评：康宁光通信增长及利润率扩张强化盈利前景，但市场已给予AI业务明显价值。光通信销售增长44%至23.79亿美元，业务净利润增长80%，显示较强利润转化。核心毛利率及经营利润率提高，亦证明改善不止于收入。不过，玻璃创新销售下降，太阳能业务仍亏损，各业务盈利状况明显不同，不宜将AI需求等同集团全面强劲。第四季度指引显示进一步增长，支持近期盈利可见度。产能扩张、客户承诺及现金创造的重要性正超过单纯产品或合约公告。经调整自由现金流为正，但仍需观察新增经营现金有多少须重新投入光通信机会。股价于10月27日收报126.30美元，下跌1.13%。超预期后反应平淡，显示市场期望起点较高。我们维持中性：经营趋势正面，但若客户部署或利润率不及预期，估值保护较少。应关注光通信产能利用率、客户集中度、定价、玻璃需求、太阳能亏损及经营利润转化为自由现金流的情况。2026年第四季度建议交易区间：110–145美元。中性前景。 

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: Revenue US$7.546bn versus US$6.972bn, +8.2% YoY; approximately US$186m above US$7.36bn consensus. 

• 3Q26 EPS: Adjusted EPS US$0.88 versus US$0.50, +76%; beat US$0.80 consensus by US$0.08. GAAP EPS US$0.81; net adjusting charges US$0.07/share. 

• 4Q26 Guidance: Sales expected at 875m pounds of copper, 300,000 ounces of gold and 22m pounds of molybdenum; copper unit net cash costs US$1.68/lb. No standalone Q4 revenue or EPS guidance provided. 

• FY26 Guidance: Sales approximately 3.0bn pounds of copper, 649,000 ounces of gold and 93m pounds of molybdenum. Operating cash flow approximately US$8.5bn, assuming Q4 copper US$6.50/lb, gold US$4,000/oz and molybdenum US$32/lb; capex approximately US$4.4bn. No full-year revenue or EPS guidance provided. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: Dividend US$0.15/share, including US$0.075 base and US$0.075 variable, payable 2 November to holders of record on 15 October. Q3 buybacks US$102m; first-nine-month buybacks US$305m. 

• Comment: Freeport’s stronger metal-price realisations and cash generation support a positive outlook, but operational recovery remains the central execution question. Higher copper and gold prices lifted earnings despite lower copper sales than a year earlier. This demonstrates significant price sensitivity, while also showing why a strong earnings quarter does not by itself prove full production recovery. Indonesian gold sales were delayed by smelting and refining inventories and shipment timing, increasing dependence on Q4 deliveries. The guided step-up in gold sales would improve by-product credits and lower copper cash costs, but administrative procedures and export rules remain relevant. Unit cash costs also exclude idle-facility and restoration charges, which still matter economically. Cash generation can fund investment and shareholder returns, although management’s annual forecast depends on explicitly stated commodity prices. A reversal in those prices would change the cash outlook even if production targets were met. Shares closed at US$65.95 on 27 October, up 1.21%. The valuation recognises improved copper fundamentals but still requires successful conversion of inventories into sales. Watch Grasberg operating rates, smelter reliability, gold export timing, U.S. copper premiums, energy costs and project spending. We favour the operating recovery opportunity while retaining a wide range for commodity and execution volatility. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$58–76. Positive Outlook. 
  
  

自由港麦克莫兰 (FCX) 

• 2026财年第三季度营收：收入75.46亿美元，去年69.72亿美元，同比增长8.2%；较73.6亿美元预期高约1.86亿美元。 

• 2026财年第三季度每股收益：经调整每股盈利0.88美元，去年0.50美元，增长76%；较0.80美元预期高0.08美元。GAAP每股盈利0.81美元；净调整费用每股0.07美元。 

• 2026财年第四季度指引：预计销售铜8.75亿磅、黄金30万盎司及钼2,200万磅；铜单位净现金成本每磅1.68美元。未提供独立第四季度收入或每股盈利指引。 

• 2026财年指引：预计销售铜约30亿磅、黄金64.9万盎司及钼9,300万磅。经营现金流约85亿美元，假设第四季度铜价每磅6.50美元、金价每盎司4,000美元及钼价每磅32美元；资本开支约44亿美元。未提供全年收入或每股盈利指引。 

• 股息与回购：每股股息0.15美元，包括基础及浮动股息各0.075美元，11月2日支付，登记日10月15日。第三季度回购1.02亿美元；首九个月回购3.05亿美元。 

• 短评：自由港更高金属实现价格及现金创造支持正面前景，但经营恢复仍是核心执行问题。铜销售低于去年，但更高铜金价格仍推升盈利，体现价格敏感度，亦说明强劲盈利本身并不证明产量已全面恢复。印尼黄金因冶炼库存及发货时点延迟销售，提高对第四季度交付的依赖。黄金销售增加将提高副产品抵扣并降低铜现金成本，但行政程序及出口规定仍重要。单位现金成本亦剔除闲置及恢复费用，这些费用仍有经济影响。现金创造可支持投资及股东回报，但全年预测依赖明确金属价格假设；即使产量达标，价格逆转仍会改变现金前景。股价于10月27日收报65.95美元，上涨1.21%。估值反映铜基本面改善，但仍要求库存成功转化为销售。应关注Grasberg运行水平、冶炼厂可靠性、黄金出口时点、美国铜溢价、能源成本及项目支出。我们看好经营恢复机会，同时保留较宽区间以反映商品及执行波动。2026年第四季度建议交易区间：58–76美元。正面前景。 

PayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: Revenue US$8.584bn versus US$8.417bn, +2.0% YoY; approximately US$126m below US$8.71bn consensus. Total payment volume US$487.1bn, +6%. 

• 3Q26 EPS: Non-GAAP EPS US$1.45 versus US$1.34, +8%; beat US$1.31 consensus by US$0.14. GAAP EPS US$1.25, down 4% YoY. 

• 4Q26 Guidance: GAAP EPS approximately US$1.37; non-GAAP EPS approximately US$1.43. No standalone numerical Q4 revenue range provided in the results release. 

• FY26 Guidance: Non-GAAP EPS raised to approximately US$5.60 from US$5.38; GAAP EPS approximately US$5.07, reaffirming the prior mid-single-digit-decline outlook. Transaction-margin-dollar guidance raised; no full-year revenue range provided in the release. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: Quarterly dividend US$0.14/share, payable 24 December to holders of record on 4 December. Q3 buybacks US$1.5bn, approximately 28m shares; trailing-twelve-month repurchases US$6.0bn. 

• Comment: PayPal’s higher earnings guidance is encouraging, but slow transaction-margin growth keeps our view neutral. Payment volume grew faster than revenue, illustrating that greater activity does not automatically produce equivalent monetisation. Transaction margin dollars excluding interest on customer balances grew 3%, a more useful indicator of the underlying payment economics than volume alone. Non-GAAP operating margin improved only modestly, while GAAP operating income and EPS declined. Buybacks also reduce the share count, helping per-share earnings grow faster than total profit. That is a valid capital-return benefit, but it should not be mistaken for accelerating customer demand. Active-account growth remained limited, making engagement, checkout conversion and product mix central to the recovery. The new guidance supports confidence in the near-term earnings path, while competition and the transformation programme still require sustained execution. Shares closed at US$56.09 on 27 October, up 2.00%. Valuation appears more forgiving than at faster-growing payment peers, but a lasting rerating needs better organic profit growth. Cash generation supports repurchases and the dividend, although reported free cash flow is affected by buy-now-pay-later receivable timing. Watch branded checkout, transaction-margin dollars, account engagement, loss rates and cash conversion. We see a credible improvement path, with evidence of stronger revenue quality still needed. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$50–65. Neutral Outlook. 
  
  

贝宝 (PYPL) 

• 2026财年第三季度营收：收入85.84亿美元，去年84.17亿美元，同比增长2.0%；较87.1亿美元预期低约1.26亿美元。总支付额4,871亿美元，增长6%。 

• 2026财年第三季度每股收益：非GAAP每股盈利1.45美元，去年1.34美元，增长8%；较1.31美元预期高0.14美元。GAAP每股盈利1.25美元，同比下降4%。 

• 2026财年第四季度指引：GAAP每股盈利约1.37美元；非GAAP每股盈利约1.43美元。业绩公告未提供独立第四季度量化收入区间。 

• 2026财年指引：非GAAP每股盈利由约5.38美元上调至5.60美元；GAAP每股盈利约5.07美元，重申此前下降中单位数的前景。交易利润金额指引上调；公告未提供全年收入区间。 

• 股息与回购：季度股息每股0.14美元，12月24日支付，登记日12月4日。第三季度回购15亿美元，约2,800万股；过去十二个月回购60亿美元。 

• 短评：贝宝上调盈利指引令人鼓舞，但交易利润金额增长较慢使我们维持中性。支付额增速高于收入，显示活动增加未必带来同等变现。剔除客户余额利息后的交易利润金额增长3%，较支付额更能反映基础支付经济效益。非GAAP经营利润率仅小幅改善，GAAP经营利润及每股盈利下降。回购减少股数，使每股盈利增速高于总利润；这有股东回报价值，但不应等同客户需求加速。活跃账户增长有限，参与度、结账转化及产品结构是恢复关键。新指引支持近期盈利可见度，但竞争及转型仍要求持续执行。股价于10月27日收报56.09美元，上涨2.00%。估值较高增长支付同业更宽容，但持续重估需要更佳有机利润增长。现金创造支持回购及股息，不过报告自由现金流受到先买后付应收款时点影响。应关注品牌结账、交易利润金额、账户参与度、损失率及现金转化。改善路径具可信度，但仍需更强收入质量证据。2026年第四季度建议交易区间：50–65美元。中性前景。 

Robinhood Markets Inc. (HOOD) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: Revenue US$1.424bn, approximately +12% YoY; approximately US$16m below US$1.44bn consensus. Transaction revenue US$867m, +19%; net interest revenue US$415m, down 9%. 

• 3Q26 EPS: Adjusted EPS US$0.60, down 3% YoY, versus approximately US$0.56 consensus, a US$0.04 beat on this basis. GAAP EPS US$0.51, down 16%, including US$0.07/share unrealised investment losses. 

• 4Q26 Guidance: The company did not provide Q4 revenue or EPS guidance. October net deposits had exceeded US$13bn month-to-date, including a US$6bn Dell family contribution to Trump Accounts; this is operating data, not earnings guidance. 

• FY26 Guidance: No full-year revenue or EPS guidance provided. Adjusted operating expenses plus SBC narrowed to US$2.675–2.750bn from US$2.675–2.775bn; this excludes credit-loss provisions and specified regulatory, acquisition and other costs. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: Q3 buybacks US$25m; cumulative repurchases since Q3 2024 US$1.3bn. No cash dividend announced. Cash and equivalents US$5.8bn. 

• Comment: Robinhood’s expanding product mix and deposits support the franchise, but declining earnings and volatile revenue sources keep our outlook neutral. Options, equities and event contracts helped offset a 55% decline in crypto revenue. Gold subscriptions grew strongly, providing a more recurring contribution, while net interest revenue declined despite asset growth. The result is a broader business, but not yet one insulated from trading cycles and interest rates. The distinction between adjusted and GAAP EPS matters this quarter because investment marks affected reported profit. Even on the adjusted measure, earnings declined as spending and credit exposure grew. The lower expense ceiling is helpful, although excluded costs can still affect shareholders. Large October deposits improve assets and potential engagement, but concentrated contributions should not be assumed to recur every month. Shares traded at US$87.34 post-market on 27 October, down 7.63% from the close, indicating that the market required more than record revenue. The valuation still depends on sustained monetisation of new products and deposits. Prediction-market regulation, credit-card losses and operational resilience remain material risks. Watch net deposits excluding exceptional contributions, Gold retention, trading mix, interest spreads and total expenses. We prefer to see clearer profit conversion before adopting a more positive stance. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$72–96. Neutral Outlook. 
  
  

罗宾汉 (HOOD) 

• 2026财年第三季度营收：收入14.24亿美元，同比增长约12%；较14.4亿美元预期低约1,600万美元。交易收入8.67亿美元，增长19%；净利息收入4.15亿美元，下降9%。 

• 2026财年第三季度每股收益：经调整每股盈利0.60美元，同比下降3%，高于约0.56美元预期，在该口径下超出0.04美元。GAAP每股盈利0.51美元，下降16%，包含每股0.07美元未实现投资损失。 

• 2026财年第四季度指引：公司未提供第四季度收入或每股盈利指引。10月至今净存款已超过130亿美元，包括戴尔家族向Trump Accounts投入60亿美元；此为经营数据，并非盈利指引。 

• 2026财年指引：未提供全年收入或每股盈利指引。经调整经营费用加股权薪酬区间由26.75亿–27.75亿美元收窄至26.75亿–27.50亿美元，剔除信贷损失拨备及指定监管、收购等费用。 

• 股息与回购：第三季度回购2,500万美元；自2024年第三季度以来累计回购13亿美元。未宣布现金股息。现金及现金等价物58亿美元。 

• 短评：罗宾汉产品结构扩大及存款增加支持业务基础，但盈利下降及收入波动使我们维持中性。期权、股票及事件合约部分抵消加密货币收入下降55%。Gold订阅强劲增长，提供较经常性收入，但净利息收入在资产增长下仍下降。业务更广泛，惟尚未摆脱交易周期及利率影响。本季度投资估值影响报告利润，因此GAAP与调整后每股盈利口径重要。即使按调整后口径，支出及信贷业务增加下盈利仍下降。费用上限下调有利，但被剔除费用仍影响股东。10月大额流入改善资产及潜在参与度，但集中性贡献不宜假设每月重复。10月27日盘后股价报87.34美元，较收盘价下跌7.63%，显示市场要求不止创纪录收入。估值仍依赖新产品及存款持续变现。预测市场监管、信用卡损失及运营韧性仍是重要风险。应关注剔除特殊贡献后的净存款、Gold留存、交易结构、利差及总费用。转向更积极观点前，我们希望看到更清晰利润转化。2026年第四季度建议交易区间：72–96美元。中性前景。 

SK hynix Inc. (SKHY) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: Revenue KRW104.6155tn versus KRW24.4489tn, +328% YoY and +32% QoQ; KRW6.3855tn above KRW98.23tn consensus. Figures are consolidated K-IFRS; trading range refers to the U.S. listing in dollars. 

• 3Q26 EPS: EPS and a comparable EPS consensus were not verified in the reviewed company release. Net profit KRW39.7756tn, +216% YoY and down 58% QoQ. Operating profit KRW83.3338tn, +632% YoY, versus KRW76.96tn consensus, a KRW6.3738tn beat. 

• 4Q26 Guidance: No numerical Q4 revenue or EPS guidance provided. HBM4 expected to exceed HBM3E in shipment volume and revenue; M15X to reach maximum capacity by year-end; 321-layer NAND to exceed half of domestic capacity. 

• FY26 Guidance: No numerical full-year revenue or EPS guidance provided. Long-term agreements cover more than 50% of 2027–2028 production capacity. Management expects supply shortages through 2030; this is its industry view, not a guaranteed outcome. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: Q3 dividend KRW20,000 per ordinary share, including KRW10,000 regular and KRW10,000 special. Approximately KRW100tn of shareholder returns planned this year. The ordinary-share dividend should not be read as the U.S. depositary-share payout. 

• Comment: SK hynix’s exceptional operating growth and longer-term customer commitments support a positive outlook, although the current profitability should not be treated as a permanent floor. HBM4 and server DDR5 demand are strengthening the product mix, while enterprise SSDs broaden exposure beyond a single memory category. Agreements covering more than half of 2027–2028 capacity improve planning visibility, but their pricing mechanisms still reflect market conditions. The major risk is that unusually strong pricing encourages supply investment or creates customer resistance. An 80% operating margin leaves a demanding earnings base for future comparisons. Net profit also fell sharply from Q2 despite higher operating profit, showing why operating and investment-related results must be assessed separately. The decision to stop reviewing a Solidigm IPO changes the funding approach and places greater weight on internal resources. Large cash balances and planned shareholder returns are supportive, but expansion and distribution must remain consistent. The U.S. listing traded at US$149.43 post-market on 27 October, up 2.80% from the close, around the release window. Valuation remains exposed to memory-price expectations and currency movements. Watch HBM4 qualification and yields, conventional DRAM pricing, NAND demand, capital spending and the terms of long-term agreements. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$135–185. Positive Outlook. 
  
  

SK海力士 (SKHY) 

• 2026财年第三季度营收：收入104.6155万亿韩元，去年24.4489万亿韩元，同比增长328%、环比增长32%；较98.23万亿韩元预期高6.3855万亿韩元。财务数据为合并K-IFRS口径；美元交易区间对应美国上市证券。 

• 2026财年第三季度每股收益：所审阅公司公告未能核实每股盈利及可比EPS预期。净利润39.7756万亿韩元，同比增长216%、环比下降58%。经营利润83.3338万亿韩元，增长632%；较76.96万亿韩元预期高6.3738万亿韩元。 

• 2026财年第四季度指引：未提供第四季度量化收入或每股盈利指引。预计HBM4出货量及收入超过HBM3E；M15X年底达最大产能；321层NAND占国内产能超过一半。 

• 2026财年指引：未提供全年量化收入或每股盈利指引。长期协议覆盖2027–2028年超过50%产能。管理层预计供应短缺持续至2030年，属于其行业判断，并非保证结果。 

• 股息与回购：每普通股第三季度股息20,000韩元，包括普通及特别股息各10,000韩元。今年计划股东回报约100万亿韩元。普通股股息不应直接视为美国存托证券派息金额。 

• 短评：SK海力士经营高速增长及长期客户承诺支持正面前景，但当前盈利水平不应视为永久下限。HBM4及服务器DDR5需求改善产品结构，企业SSD亦扩大存储类别敞口。覆盖2027–2028年超过一半产能的协议提高规划可见度，但定价机制仍反映市场情况。主要风险是异常强劲定价刺激供应投资或客户抵制。80%经营利润率令未来比较基数很高。经营利润增长同时，净利润较第二季度明显下降，说明经营及投资相关结果需分别评估。停止评估Solidigm上市改变融资方式，增加对内部资源依赖。充裕现金及计划股东回报提供支持，但扩产与分配仍需协调。美国上市证券于10月27日盘后报149.43美元，较收盘价上涨2.80%，处于业绩发布窗口附近。估值仍受存储价格预期及汇率影响。应关注HBM4认证及良率、传统DRAM定价、NAND需求、资本开支及长期协议条款。2026年第四季度建议交易区间：135–185美元。正面前景。 

Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) 

• 1Q27 Revenue: FY27 Q1 revenue US$4.233bn versus US$2.629bn, +61.0% YoY; approximately US$95m above US$4.138bn LSEG consensus. 

• 1Q27 EPS: Non-GAAP diluted EPS US$7.68 versus US$2.61, +194.3%; beat US$7.42 consensus by US$0.26. GAAP EPS US$7.59 versus US$2.43, +212.3%. 

• 2Q27 Guidance: FY27 Q2 revenue US$4.8bn ± US$100m; non-GAAP diluted EPS US$9.20 ± US$0.20. 

• FY27 Guidance: The company did not provide full-year FY27 revenue or EPS guidance. The quarterly outlook should not be presented as an annual target. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: Quarterly dividend raised approximately 3% to US$0.76/share, payable 7 January 2027 to holders of record on 23 December 2026. Q1 dividends and buybacks US$568m. Debt principal retired US$1.2bn in Q1 and another US$750m subsequently. 

• Comment: Seagate’s pricing, margin expansion and cash generation support a positive outlook, even after a negative post-market reaction. Revenue growth was accompanied by a substantial improvement in non-GAAP gross margin to 57.8%, demonstrating that the storage cycle is producing earnings as well as shipments. The next-quarter guidance points to further progress, while HAMR offers a route to higher capacity through areal-density gains. That technology advantage must still be delivered through reliable production, customer qualification and satisfactory yields. Strong customer demand visibility reduces some uncertainty, but it does not remove concentration or deployment risks. Cash generation is particularly valuable at this stage of the cycle: free cash flow reached US$1.5bn and debt repayments materially strengthened the balance sheet. This increases flexibility for investment and shareholder returns. However, current margins create a high comparison base and should not be assumed to remain indefinitely at peak levels. Shares traded at US$630.96 post-market on 27 October, down 5.52% from the close, showing that expectations were demanding despite the beat. The valuation remains sensitive to pricing durability and the pace of hyperscaler spending. Watch HAMR ramp execution, exabyte demand, realised pricing, customer concentration and free-cash-flow conversion. We favour the earnings trajectory while retaining room for cyclical volatility. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$550–720. Positive Outlook. 
  
  

希捷科技 (STX) 

• 2027财年第一季度营收：2027财年第一季度收入42.33亿美元，去年26.29亿美元，同比增长61.0%；较LSEG预期41.38亿美元高约9,500万美元。 

• 2027财年第一季度每股收益：非GAAP摊薄每股盈利7.68美元，去年2.61美元，增长194.3%；较7.42美元预期高0.26美元。GAAP每股盈利7.59美元，去年2.43美元，增长212.3%。 

• 2027财年第二季度指引：2027财年第二季度收入48亿美元，上下浮动1亿美元；非GAAP摊薄每股盈利9.20美元，上下浮动0.20美元。 

• 2027财年指引：公司未提供2027财年全年收入或每股盈利指引。季度前景不应表述为全年目标。 

• 股息与回购：季度股息上调约3%至每股0.76美元，2027年1月7日支付，登记日2026年12月23日。首季股息及回购共5.68亿美元。首季偿还债务本金12亿美元，其后再偿还7.5亿美元。 

• 短评：希捷定价、利润率扩张及现金创造支持正面前景，尽管盘后市场反应负面。收入增长同时，非GAAP毛利率显著升至57.8%，显示存储周期正产生盈利而非仅增加出货。下季度指引显示进一步改善，HAMR亦提供通过面密度增加容量的路径。但技术优势仍须通过可靠生产、客户认证及良率兑现。客户需求可见度较强减少部分不确定性，却不能消除集中度及部署风险。当前周期阶段现金创造尤其重要：自由现金流达15亿美元，偿债显著增强资产负债表，为投资及股东回报提供更大灵活性。不过，当前利润率形成高比较基数，不宜假设永久维持峰值。10月27日盘后股价报630.96美元，较收盘价下跌5.52%，显示超预期下市场期望仍高。估值仍受定价持续性及超大规模客户支出影响。应关注HAMR爬坡、存储需求、实现价格、客户集中度及自由现金流转化。我们看好盈利轨迹，同时保留周期波动空间。2026年第四季度建议交易区间：550–720美元。正面前景。 

Visa Inc. (V) 

• 4Q26 Revenue: FY26 Q4 net revenue approximately US$12.14bn, +13% YoY; approximately US$60m above US$12.08bn consensus. Constant-dollar revenue growth 13%. 

• 4Q26 EPS: Non-GAAP diluted EPS US$3.48 versus US$2.98, +17%; beat US$3.43 consensus by US$0.05. GAAP diluted EPS US$3.19 versus US$2.62, +22%. 

• 1Q27 Guidance: FY27 Q1: low-double-digit revenue and operating-expense growth; diluted EPS growth at the low end of mid-teens, on a non-GAAP adjusted constant-dollar basis. No absolute dollar EPS range provided. 

• FY27 Guidance: Initial FY27 guidance: low-double-digit revenue and operating-expense growth; EPS growth from low-double digits to low teens, on a non-GAAP adjusted constant-dollar basis. FY26 actual non-GAAP EPS US$13.27 and revenue US$45.9bn. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: Quarterly dividend increased 16% to US$0.780/share, payable 1 December to holders of record on 10 November. Q4 buybacks approximately US$4.0bn and dividends US$1.26bn; remaining buyback authorisation US$24.4bn. 

• Comment: Visa’s resilient payment activity and capital returns support the franchise, but the new outlook leaves our view neutral after a substantial valuation premium has already been established. Constant-dollar payment volume grew 9%, cross-border volume excluding intra-Europe grew 14%, and processed transactions rose 10%. These drivers show that growth remains broad rather than dependent on one revenue line. Value-added activities and data processing provide additional opportunities, although client incentives and operating investment affect how much activity reaches earnings. The FY27 outlook continues to imply healthy growth, but it does not promise an acceleration from every current metric. Litigation and regulation remain relevant even when non-GAAP profit excludes particular charges. The BioCatch acquisition could strengthen fraud intelligence, but integration and the timing of returns need monitoring. Shares traded at US$397.25 post-market on 27 October, down 1.15% from the close, suggesting that the guidance was not sufficient to lift expectations. Strong free cash flow supports the higher dividend and repurchases, while the asset-light model remains attractive. Nevertheless, a quality business can still deliver modest returns if purchased at an excessive price. Watch cross-border travel, payment volume, client incentives, value-added services, expenses and regulatory developments. We retain a balanced view of durable growth against valuation and execution risks. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$360–440. Neutral Outlook. 
  
  

维萨 (V) 

• 2026财年第四季度营收：2026财年第四季度净收入约121.4亿美元，同比增长13%；较120.8亿美元预期高约6,000万美元。固定汇率收入增长13%。 

• 2026财年第四季度每股收益：非GAAP摊薄每股盈利3.48美元，去年2.98美元，增长17%；较3.43美元预期高0.05美元。GAAP摊薄每股盈利3.19美元，去年2.62美元，增长22%。 

• 2027财年第一季度指引：2027财年第一季度：按非GAAP经调整固定汇率口径，收入及经营费用增长低双位数，每股盈利增长处于百分之十几的低端。未提供绝对美元每股盈利区间。 

• 2027财年指引：首次提供2027财年指引：按非GAAP经调整固定汇率口径，收入及经营费用增长低双位数，每股盈利增速介于低双位数至百分之十几的较低水平。2026财年实际非GAAP每股盈利13.27美元，收入459亿美元。 

• 股息与回购：季度股息提高16%至每股0.780美元，12月1日支付，登记日11月10日。第四季度回购约40亿美元、股息12.6亿美元；剩余回购授权244亿美元。 

• 短评：维萨稳健支付活动及资本回报支持业务基础，但估值已具明显溢价，新前景使我们维持中性。固定汇率支付额增长9%，剔除欧洲区内的跨境额增长14%，处理交易量增长10%，显示增长较广泛而非依赖单一收入线。增值业务及数据处理提供额外机会，但客户激励及经营投入影响收入转化为盈利的程度。2027财年前景仍健康，惟并不保证所有指标加速。即使非GAAP盈利剔除特定费用，诉讼及监管仍重要。收购BioCatch有望增强反欺诈能力，但整合及回报时点需跟进。10月27日盘后股价报397.25美元，较收盘价下跌1.15%，显示指引不足以提高市场期望。强自由现金流支持提高股息及回购，轻资产业务仍具吸引力。不过，若买入价格过高，优质企业亦可能带来有限回报。应关注跨境旅游、支付额、客户激励、增值服务、费用及监管发展。我们平衡评估持续增长、估值及执行风险。2026年第四季度建议交易区间：360–440美元。中性前景。