Technical Analysis: 28 August 2026

Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY) 

• 2Q27 Revenue: $9.78B, +3.6% YoY, beat estimates by $190M 

• 2Q27 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.47, beat estimates by $0.09 

• FY27 Guidance: Raised FY27 revenue guidance to US$42.3–42.8B from US$41.2–42.1B, comparable-sales guidance to +1.9–3.0% from -1.0% to +1.0%, and adjusted EPS guidance to US$6.70–6.90 from US$6.30–6.60. 

• 3Q27 Guidance: Management expects comparable sales growth of 1–3% and adjusted operating margin of 4.1–4.2%. 

• Dividends/Share Buybacks: Returned US$239M to shareholders during the quarter, comprising US$203M of dividends and US$36M of share repurchases. Best Buy maintained its US$0.96/share quarterly dividend and expects approximately US$300M of FY27 buybacks. 

• Comment: This was a strong beat-and-raise quarter. The 4.1% comparable-sales increase was substantially above expectations and broad-based across major categories, suggesting the consumer-electronics replacement cycle is finally improving. Computing remains strong, while emerging categories such as AI glasses, health rings and other AI-enabled devices provide incremental growth opportunities. Best Buy Ads and Marketplace are also becoming strategically important because they can raise margins without requiring equivalent growth in low-margin hardware sales. The key issue is sustainability. The US$34M tariff refund provided a temporary margin benefit, computing faces tougher comparisons in 2H after the Windows 10 replacement cycle, and higher memory prices are increasing hardware ASPs while pressuring product margins. The stock had also rallied roughly 30% before earnings, leaving expectations significantly higher than earlier this year. Nevertheless, raising the full-year comp outlook from -1%/+1% to +1.9–3.0% represents a meaningful improvement in management’s assessment of underlying demand. Shares fell approximately 4.5% following the earnings release despite the beat-and-raise quarter, largely reflecting profit-taking and concerns around earnings quality and 2H comparisons. The principal variables to monitor are computing demand, AI-device adoption, domestic comparable sales, Marketplace and advertising growth, product margins, memory-component inflation and the upcoming CEO transition to Jason Bonfig. 3Q27 recommended trading range: $75 to $95. Neutral Outlook. 

 

百思买（BBY)  

• 27财年第二季度营收：97.8亿美元，同比增长3.6%，超出预期1.9亿美元 

• 27财年第二季度非公认会计准则每股收益：1.47美元，超出预期0.09美元 

• 27财年全年及第三季度指引：全年营收指引上调至423亿–428亿美元（此前为412亿–421亿美元）；同店销售（comparable-sales），显著改善（此前为-1.0%至+1.0%）；调整后EPS指引上调至6.70–6.90美元（此前为6.30–6.60美元）； 

• Q3指引：预计同店销售增长1%–3%，调整后营业利润率为4.1%–4.2%。 

• 股息与回购：本季度向股东返还2.39亿美元（包括2.03亿美元股息和3600万美元股票回购）。维持每股0.96美元的季度股息，预计27财年全年回购规模约3亿美元。 

• 短评：本季度呈现强劲的“超预期+上调指引”态势。同店销售大增4.1%，大幅超出预期且各大核心品类全面开花，表明消费电子的换机周期终于迎来实质性改善。核心亮点：计算（Computing），而AI眼镜、智能健康戒指等AI赋能的新兴设备提供了极具潜力的增量空间。此外，Best Buy Ads（零售媒体广告）正变得极具战略重要性，它们能够在不依赖低毛利硬件销售放量的情况下，有效拉升公司的整体利润率。核心隐忧（可持续性）：本季度3400万美元的关税退款提供了临时性的利润率粉饰；在Windows 10换机潮过后，下半年计算品类将面临更严峻的高基数压力（tougher comparisons）；此外，更高的内存等元器件价格虽然推高了硬件平均售价（ASP），但也实质性地压制了产品毛利率。市场反应：财报前股价已累计大涨约30%，市场预期被显著推高。尽管管理层将全年同店销售指引从“负增长/微增”大幅上修至“+1.9%–3.0%”，展现了对底层需求改善的强烈信心，但财报后股价仍下跌约4.5%。这主要反映了资金在高位获利了结，以及对短期盈利质量和下半年高基数压力的担忧。后续关键变量包括：（1）计算品类及核心家电需求的持续性；（2）AI新兴设备的市场采用率与渗透速度；（3）国内同店销售的环比表现；（4）Marketplace与广告等高毛利业务的增长斜率；（5）产品毛利率在元器件通胀下的稳定性；（6）即将交接给Jason Bonfig的CEO换帅进展及战略延续性。百思买在消费电子复苏周期中展现了强大的全渠道运营与供应链能力，高毛利业务（广告+第三方平台）的拓展为其长期盈利质量提供了坚实支撑。但短期内，股价需消化前期的巨大涨幅以及下半年潜在的基数压力。27财年第三季度建议交易区间：75美元至95美元。中性前景。 

 

Bilibili Inc. (BILI) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $1.17B, +8.0% YoY, miss estimates by $10M 

• 2Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.23, in-line with estimates  

• 3Q26 Guidance: No explicit guidance from company. 

• Comment: This was a strong quarter, with the most important development being continued earnings growth materially outpacing revenue growth. Advertising increased 20%, daily active users continued expanding and user engagement remained healthy, while higher-margin advertising and gaming revenue improved the overall mix. Bilibili’s increasingly mature user base is also becoming more commercially valuable, strengthening monetisation without requiring aggressive user-acquisition spending. The key issue is gaming concentration and whether advertising can sustain >20% growth. The gaming business remains dependent on a relatively small number of successful titles, creating greater quarterly volatility, while China’s digital advertising market remains competitive. Nevertheless, Bilibili has moved decisively beyond its historical cash-burning growth model, with higher gross margins and operating leverage creating a structurally better earnings profile. Shares rose approximately 5% following the earnings release. The principal variables to monitor are advertising growth, gaming pipeline and longevity of existing titles, DAU and engagement, gross-margin expansion, AI-driven advertising monetisation and free cash flow. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $15 to $18. Positive Outlook. 

 

哔哩哔哩（BILI)  

• 26财年第二季度营收：11.7亿美元，同比增长8.0%，略低于预期1000万美元 

• 26财年第二季度非公认会计准则每股收益（Non-GAAP EPS）：0.23美元，符合市场预期 

• 26财年第三季度指引：公司未提供明确的财务指引 

• 短评：本季度表现强劲，最核心的亮点在于盈利增速持续大幅领先于营收增速，盈利质量实现显著改善。核心亮点：广告业务收入同比大增20%，日活跃用户（DAU）持续扩张且用户黏性（参与度）保持健康。高毛利的广告与游戏收入占比提升，有效优化了整体营收结构。随着B站用户群体日益成熟，其商业变现价值不断提升，公司无需再依赖激进的获客支出即可实现稳健的收入增长。核心隐忧：主要在于游戏业务的集中度与广告高增长的可持续性。游戏业务依然高度依赖少数几款头部产品，导致季度业绩波动较大；同时，国内数字广告市场竞争依然激烈，广告业务能否长期维持20%以上的增速仍面临宏观与行业的挑战。战略蜕变：总体而言，B站已彻底告别了过去“烧钱换增长”的历史模式。毛利率的持续攀升与运营杠杆的释放，为其构筑了结构上更优、更具韧性的盈利模型。财报后股价上涨约5%，市场对其坚定的盈利拐点与利润释放能力给予了积极的定价反馈。后续关键变量包括：（1）广告收入增速及商业化效率；（2）新游戏管线储备及现有头部游戏的生命周期；（3）DAU规模与核心用户活跃度；（4）毛利率的持续扩张轨迹；（5）AI赋能广告精准投放与变现的效率；（6）自由现金流的稳定性与规模。哔哩哔哩已成功跨越盈利拐点，商业化效率提升与严格的成本管控成效显著，从“规模扩张”向“高质量盈利”的转型逻辑得到实质性验证。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：15美元至18美元。积极前景。 

 

Dollar General Corporation (DG) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $11.3B, +5.6% YoY, beat estimates by $110M 

• 2Q26 GAAP EPS: $2.48, beat estimates by $0.47 

• FY26 Guidance: Raised FY26 net sales growth guidance to 4.0–4.3% and same-store sales growth to 2.5–2.9%. EPS is now expected at US$7.80–US$8.00, with the midpoint above prior expectations. 

• Dividends/Share Buybacks: Declared a quarterly dividend of US$0.59/share and announced that share repurchases will resume during 2H26, signaling increased confidence in cash generation and the turnaround. 

• Comment: This was a strong beat-and-raise quarter. Same-store sales increased 3.5%, Dollar General recorded its fifth consecutive quarter of traffic growth, and management raised its full-year sales and earnings outlook. The company is benefiting from increasing consumer value-seeking as food, fuel and other living costs remain elevated. Its dense rural footprint is also becoming more valuable as higher gasoline prices encourage consumers to make shorter shopping trips. The expansion of its US$1 assortment is particularly encouraging, with sales of these products growing 16% during Q2. The key issue is margin sustainability. Tariff refunds provided some earnings support, while management is deliberately reinvesting part of these proceeds into price reductions rather than retaining the entire benefit. Consumables also carry lower margins than discretionary merchandise, and elevated fuel and transportation costs could pressure 2H profitability. Nevertheless, stronger traffic, improving execution and the resumption of buybacks suggest the turnaround is becoming increasingly durable rather than being driven solely by temporary tariff benefits. Shares rose approximately 5% following the earnings release, after trading materially higher pre-market. The principal variables to monitor are same-store traffic, consumables versus discretionary mix, gross margin, US$1 assortment growth, fuel costs, inventory shrink and the pace of share repurchases. The raised guidance and sustained traffic gains are constructive, but margin sensitivity and the stock’s recovery from its lows prevent a sufficiently high-conviction bullish stance. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $115 to $140. Neutral Outlook. 

 

达乐公司（DG) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：113亿美元，同比增长5.6%，超出预期1.1亿美元 

• 26财年第二季度公认会计准则每股收益：2.48美元，大幅超出预期0.47美元 

• 26财年全年指引：上调全年净销售增长指引至4.0%–4.3%，同店销售增长指引上调至2.5%–2.9%；预计全年EPS为7.80–8.00美元，中值高于此前市场预期。 

• 股息与回购：宣布每股0.59美元的季度股息，并宣布将在26年下半年恢复股票回购，表明管理层对现金流创造能力和转型前景的信心显著增强。 

• 短评：本季度呈现强劲的“超预期+上调指引”态势。同店销售增长3.5%，达乐连续第五个季度实现客流增长，管理层顺势上调了全年销售与盈利预期。核心亮点：随着食品、燃料及其他生活成本居高不下，消费者日益追求性价比，公司从中显著受益。其密集的乡村门店网络也变得更具战略价值，因为高昂的汽油价格促使消费者倾向于更短途、更便捷的购物出行。此外，1美元商品组合的扩张尤为令人鼓舞，二季度此类极具引流效应的产品销售额大增16%。核心隐忧在于“利润率的可持续性”：关税退款为盈利提供了一定支撑，但管理层选择将部分红利刻意再投资于降价促销以回馈消费者，而非全部保留为账面利润。此外，日常消耗品（consumables），且高企的燃料与运输成本可能压制下半年的盈利能力。转型逻辑验证：尽管如此，更强劲的客流、改善的门店执行力以及股票回购的恢复，表明公司的基本面转型正变得日益持久且扎实，而非仅仅由临时性的关税红利所驱动。财报发布前股价已大幅走高，财报后股价继续上涨约5%，市场对其客流韧性与股东回报意愿给予了积极反馈。后续关键变量包括：（1）同店客流量的持续性；（2）日常消耗品与非必需品的销售结构变化（影响整体毛利）；（3）毛利率的稳定性；（4）1美元商品组合的增长与引流效果；（5）燃料与物流成本；（6）库存损耗（inventory shrink）；（7）股票回购的实际执行节奏。达乐公司上调的指引与持续的客流增长具有积极的建设性，证明了其在消费降级周期中的防御价值。但考虑到其对利润率波动的高度敏感性，以及股价已从前期低点实现了可观的反弹修复，短期内限制了给出更高确信度看多评级的空间。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：115美元至140美元。中性前景。 

 

Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $4.89B, +7.0% YoY, beat estimates by $30M. 

• 2Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.39, beat estimates by $0.25 

• 3Q26 Guidance: Management expects revenue of US$5.0–5.1B, 3–4% comps and EPS of only US$0.80–0.95, materially below consensus of approximately US$1.40 as tariff refunds are reinvested into pricing, marketing and stores. 

• FY26 Guidance: Raised FY26 adjusted EPS guidance to US$7.70–US$8.05 from US$6.70–US$7.10, including approximately US$0.60 of net tariff-refund benefit. Revenue guidance was maintained at US$20.5–20.7B, based on 3–4% comparable-store sales growth. 

• Dividends/Share Buybacks: Repurchased approximately US$605M of shares during 2Q26 and US$1.2B YTD, representing 11.1M shares. Dollar Tree does not currently pay a regular dividend. 

• Comment: This was a mixed quarter despite the headline EPS beat. Comparable sales of 3.7% were healthy, traffic returned to positive territory and the multi-price strategy continues to expand, with approximately 6,600 stores now operating under the multi-price format. Higher price points are broadening assortment and increasing basket size, while value-seeking behavior across income groups remains supportive. The key issue is earnings quality and the weak Q3 outlook. The US$383M tariff refund materially inflated Q2 profitability, while management intends to reinvest much of the benefit into price, marketing and store initiatives. This explains the sharp sequential decline implied by Q3 EPS guidance. Unlike Dollar General, where traffic increased 2.0%, Dollar Tree’s Q2 comp growth was predominantly ticket-driven, with traffic increasing only 0.4%. This makes Dollar General’s current demand momentum arguably stronger despite Dollar Tree’s improving execution. Shares fell approximately 4.5% following the earnings release. The principal variables to monitor are customer traffic, multi-price penetration, gross margin excluding tariff refunds, Q3 reinvestment returns, shrink, discretionary merchandise demand and the pace of share repurchases. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $115 to $140. Neutral Outlook. 

 

Dollar Tree, Inc.（DLTR) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：48.9亿美元，同比增长7.0%，超出预期3000万美元 

• 26财年第二季度非公认会计准则每股收益：1.39美元，大幅超出预期0.25美元 

• 26财年第三季度及全年指引：Q3营收预计为50亿–51亿美元，同店销售增长3%–4%；但Q3 EPS指引仅为0.80–0.95美元，大幅低于市场共识的约1.40美元（因关税退款被再投资于定价、营销和门店）；上调全年调整后EPS指引至7.70–8.05美元（此前为6.70–7.10美元），其中包含约0.60美元的净关税退款收益；维持全年营收指引在205亿–207亿美元（基于3%–4%的同店销售增长预期）。 

• 股息与回购：本季度回购约6.05亿美元股票，年初至今累计回购12亿美元（合1110万股）。公司目前不派发常规股息。 

• 短评：本季度呈现“表观盈利超预期，但内核隐忧浮现”的混合态势。核心亮点在于“多价格策略”的持续推进：同店销售健康增长3.7%，客流重回正增长区间。目前约有6600家门店已转型为多价格模式（打破单一极低价格限制）。更高的价格点有效拓宽了商品种类（assortment）并提升了客单价（basket size），各收入阶层追求性价比的消费行为为其提供了强劲支撑。核心痛点在于“盈利质量”与疲软的Q3前瞻：本季度高达3.83亿美元的关税退款大幅粉饰了Q2的账面利润。管理层明确表示，将把大部分退款红利再投资于降价、营销和门店升级，这直接导致了Q3 EPS指引的环比“断崖式”下跌，令市场措手不及。动能对比的隐忧：与同业Dollar General（客流大增2.0%）相比，Dollar Tree本季度的同店增长主要由客单价（ticket-driven）驱动，客流仅微增0.4%。这表明尽管Dollar Tree的内部执行力在改善，但Dollar General在底层客流需求动能上目前更具优势。财报后股价下跌约4.5%，反映出市场对Q3盈利大幅环比下滑及客流增长疲软的担忧，抵消了Q2业绩超预期的利好。后续关键变量包括：（1）底层客流量的实质性改善情况；（2）多价格门店的渗透率与单店产出提升；（3）剔除关税退款一次性影响后的常态化毛利率；（4）Q3利润再投资对下半年客流与份额的实际拉动效果；（5）库存损耗（shrink）；（6）非必需品需求的宏观韧性；（7）股票回购的执行节奏。Dollar Tree 正处于打破单一低价束缚、向多价格带转型的关键期，客单价的提升证明了其商品力的改善。但短期内，关税退款红利的消退、激进的再投资计划以及相对疲软的客流增长，使其基本面能见度受到压制。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：115美元至140美元。中性前景。 

 

Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) 

• 2Q27 Revenue: $2.99B, +10.7% YoY, miss estimates by $40M 

• 2Q27 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.37, beat estimates by $0.18. 

• FY26 Guidance: Raised FY26 adjusted EPS guidance to approximately US$9.70–US$10.10, while maintaining comparable-store sales growth expectations of approximately 2–3%.  

• 3Q26 Guidance: Management expects comparable sales growth of 2–3%, with adjusted EPS of approximately US$1.65–US$1.75. 

• Comment: This was a solid quarter, but less impressive than the recent results from TJX and Ross Stores. Comparable sales reached the upper end of guidance and earnings exceeded expectations, while Burlington continues to benefit from consumers trading down toward off-price retail. The merchandise buying environment remains favorable, and Burlington’s smaller-store prototype provides a long runway for unit expansion with relatively attractive returns on invested capital. The key issue is execution and margin sensitivity. Burlington remains smaller and less diversified than TJX, while its lower-income customer base is more exposed to inflation, fuel costs and broader consumer weakness. Tariffs and freight also remain potential gross-margin headwinds. Unlike TJX’s 5% and Ross’s 4% recent comparable-sales growth, Burlington’s approximately 3% comp suggests healthy but less differentiated momentum. Shares fell approximately 5% following the earnings release despite the EPS beat, reflecting relatively high expectations and a more conservative forward outlook. The principal variables to monitor are comparable-store traffic, merchandise margin, inventory availability, tariff mitigation, new-store productivity and operating-margin expansion. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $260 to $340. Neutral Outlook. 

 

Burlington Stores, Inc.（BURL) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：29.9亿美元，同比增长10.7%，略低于预期4000万美元 

• 26财年第二季度非公认会计准则每股收益：2.37美元，超出预期0.18美元 

• 26财年及第三季度指引：上调全年调整后EPS指引至约9.70–10.10美元，维持同店销售增长预期约2%–3%； 

• Q3指引：预计同店销售增长2%–3%，调整后EPS约为1.65–1.75美元。 

• 短评：本季度表现稳健，但相较于同业TJX和Ross Stores的近期业绩，爆发力略显不足。核心亮点：同店销售达到指引区间的上限，盈利超出预期。公司持续受益于消费者“消费降级”向折扣零售（off-price retail）转移的宏观趋势。当前的采购环境依然有利（品牌过剩库存充足），且Burlington主推的小型门店原型（smaller-store prototype）为其提供了长期的门店扩张空间，并具备极具吸引力的投资资本回报率（ROIC）。核心隐忧在于“执行力与利润率敏感性”：相较于TJX，Burlington的业务规模更小且品类多元化程度较低；其核心客群更偏向低收入阶层，因此对通胀、高油价及更广泛的宏观消费疲软更为敏感。此外，关税与运费仍是潜在的毛利率逆风。从同店销售增速来看，TJX（5%）和Ross（4%）表现更优，Burlington约3%的增速虽然健康，但缺乏差异化的强劲动能。市场反应：尽管EPS超预期，但由于前期股价已计入较高预期，且前瞻指引偏向保守，财报后股价下跌约5%，呈现典型的“利好出尽”反应。后续关键变量包括：（1）同店客流量的持续性；（2）商品利润率的稳定性；（3）市场上品牌过剩库存的可获得性；（4）关税与供应链成本的缓解措施；（5）新开门店的坪效与爬坡情况；（6）营业利润率的扩张轨迹。Burlington 凭借小型门店策略在折扣零售赛道中保持了稳健的扩张节奏与良好的资本回报。但受制于客群购买力敏感性及相对同业更为温和的增速，短期估值突破需要更强的同店销售加速与利润率改善来验证。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：260美元至340美元。中性前景。 

 

Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL) 

• 2Q27 Revenue: $2.74B, +37.0% YoY, beat estimates by $30M 

• 2Q27 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.94, beat estimates by $0.01 

• 3Q27 Guidance: Revenue is expected at approximately US$2.30B ±5%, above consensus expectations of roughly US$2.24B, with adjusted EPS expected at approximately US$0.79 ±US$0.05. Management remains constructive on AI-related demand, with custom silicon and electro-optics expected to remain the principal growth engines into FY28. 

• Dividends/Share Buybacks: Marvell continues to pay its quarterly dividend of US$0.06/share. 

• Comment: This was a solid beat-and-raise quarter and reinforces the view that Marvell remains one of the clearest second-order beneficiaries of hyperscaler AI capex. Data Center accounted for approximately three-quarters of revenue, while demand for PAM DSPs, 800G/1.6T optical connectivity and custom AI accelerators remains strong. The key upside opportunity is custom silicon, where multiple hyperscaler programmes should transition from development into meaningful production revenue over the next several quarters. The key issue is customer concentration and gross-margin mix. Custom silicon carries lower gross margins than Marvell’s traditional merchant silicon and optical DSP products, meaning rapid AI revenue growth does not translate one-for-one into margin expansion. Marvell is also increasingly dependent on a relatively small number of hyperscale customers, making programme timing and product ramps important sources of quarterly volatility. Nevertheless, the combination of custom silicon and 1.6T optical connectivity provides a credible pathway for AI revenue to continue materially outgrowing the broader semiconductor market. Shares fell approximately 8% following the earnings release. The principal variables to monitor are custom AI silicon ramps, 800G/1.6T optical demand, PAM DSP market share, Data Center revenue growth, non-GAAP gross margin and hyperscaler capex. 3Q27 recommended trading range: $220 to $285. Neutral Outlook. 

 

Marvell Technology, Inc.（MRVL) 

• 27财年第二季度营收：27.4亿美元，同比增长37.0%，超出预期3000万美元 

• 27财年第二季度非公认会计准则每股收益：0.94美元，微幅超出预期0.01美元 

• 27财年第三季度指引：营收预计约23.0亿美元（±5%），高于市场共识的约22.4亿美元；调整后EPS预计约0.79美元（±0.05美元）；管理层对AI相关需求保持积极，预计定制芯片（custom silicon）将是进入28财年的主要增长引擎。 

• 股息与回购：维持每季度每股0.06美元的常规股息。 

• 短评：本季度表现稳健，呈现“超预期+上调指引”态势，进一步巩固了Marvell作为超大规模客户AI资本开支最清晰的“二阶受益者”（second-order beneficiaries）的市场地位。核心亮点：数据中心业务贡献了约四分之三的营收。PAM DSP、800G/1.6T光互连以及定制AI加速器的需求依然强劲。最大的上行空间在于定制芯片业务，多个超大规模客户的核心项目将在未来几个季度从研发设计阶段，实质性过渡到规模化量产与收入兑现阶段。核心隐忧在于“客户集中度”与“毛利率结构”：定制芯片的毛利率通常低于Marvell传统的商用通用芯片（merchant silicon）和光DSP产品。这意味着，AI营收的快速增长并不能1:1地转化为整体利润率的扩张（存在毛利率稀释效应）。此外，公司日益依赖少数几家超大规模云厂商，导致大客户的项目时间节点和产品爬坡节奏成为引发季度业绩波动的重要来源。市场反应：尽管基本面强劲且指引超预期，但财报后股价下跌约8%。这反映出在前期股价大幅上涨后，市场对毛利率稀释效应、高预期下的估值消化以及单一客户依赖风险进行了重新定价与获利了结。后续关键变量包括：（1）定制AI芯片的量产爬坡与收入转化节奏；（2）800G/1.6T光模块及互连需求的爆发深度；（3）PAM DSP在数据中心网络中的市场份额争夺；（4）数据中心营收的持续增长斜率；（5）非GAAP毛利率在定制芯片占比提升下的演进与企稳路径；（6）超大规模客户的AI资本开支趋势。Marvell 凭借在定制硅片与高速光电互连领域的深厚卡位，成功切入了AI算力基础设施的核心供应链，长期成长逻辑极为清晰。但定制业务带来的毛利率结构性压制与极高的客户集中度，使其在短期估值扩张上受到一定制约，需要持续的订单兑现来消化估值。27财年第三季度建议交易区间：220美元至285美元。中性前景。 

 

IREN Limited (IREN) 

• 4Q26 Revenue: $707M, +41.1% YoY, miss estimates by $11.39M 

• 4Q26 adjusted EPS: –$0.41, beat estimates by $0.09 

• FY27 Guidance: IREN now has approximately US$4B of contracted ARR for 2026 AI capacity, of which approximately US$1B is already operating, and management said 2026 capacity is largely sold out. Horizon 1 has been delivered to Microsoft, with Horizons 2–4 targeted for the December quarter. IREN also continues discussions for substantial 2027–28 capacity and indicated recent three-year AI contracts are pricing above US$20M/MW, with current discussions around US$25M/MW. 

• Comment: This was strategically much stronger than the headline revenue decline suggests. The critical development is the conversion of IREN from a speculative AI-capacity story into a contracted AI-infrastructure business. US$4B of contracted ARR versus a current market capitalization of roughly US$13.5B is a significant step-change, while the customer roster now includes Microsoft, Cohere, Perplexity and multiple frontier AI developers. New contracts are also being signed at increasingly attractive pricing, suggesting scarcity value around powered, liquid-cooled AI infrastructure remains substantial. The key issue is execution and capital intensity. Only approximately US$1B of the US$4B contracted ARR is operating today, meaning valuation depends heavily on IREN successfully deploying the remaining GPUs and data-center capacity on schedule. The company is simultaneously targeting roughly 1.2–1.25GW of capacity by 2027, creating significant construction, financing and customer-concentration risks. This explains why the stock fell approximately 8.4% after hours, despite the strong AI contracting update. The principal variables to monitor are contracted ARR conversion into recognized revenue, Horizon 2–4 commissioning, Microsoft execution, new 2027/28 AI contracts, revenue per MW, GPU financing, capex requirements and customer concentration. 3Q27 recommended trading range: $35 to $50. Positive Outlook. 

 

IREN Limited（IREN) 

• 26财年第四季度营收：7.07亿美元，同比增长41.1%，略低于预期1139万美元 

• 26财年第四季度调整后每股亏损：0.41美元，优于预期0.09美元（亏损显著收窄） 

• 业务指引与战略进展：2026年AI算力产能的签约年度经常性收入（ARR），其中约10亿美元已投入运营，2026年产能已基本售罄；Horizon 1项目已成功交付给微软（Microsoft），Horizon 2至4项目预计在12月所在季度完成交付；公司正就2027–2028年的大量产能进行深入洽谈。近期签署的三年期AI合同定价已超过2000万美元/MW，目前的谈判价格更是攀升至约2500万美元/MW。 

• 短评：本季度在战略层面的突破，远比表观营收的微幅miss更具震撼力。IREN正成功从“投机性的AI算力概念股”蜕变为“拥有坚实合同壁垒的AI基础设施服务商”。高达40亿美元的签约ARR对比其约135亿美元的总市值，实现了基本面的跨越式重估。其客户矩阵已囊括微软、Cohere、Perplexity及多家前沿AI开发商。新合同定价的持续飙升，有力印证了具备充沛电力保障与液冷能力的AI基础设施依然具有极高的稀缺价值。然而，核心隐忧在于极重的资本开支与严苛的交付执行力。40亿美元的签约ARR中，目前仅有约10亿美元投入运营，这意味着公司的估值高度依赖于能否按时、保质地完成剩余GPU与数据中心产能的部署。公司同时设定了到2027年实现约1.2–1.25GW产能的宏大目标，这将带来巨大的工程建设、融资压力以及客户集中度风险。这也解释了为何在强劲的AI签约数据下，股价盘后仍下跌约8.4%，反映出资金对重资产扩张期执行风险与资本消耗的担忧。后续关键变量包括：（1）签约ARR向实际确认收入的转化节奏；（2）Horizon 2-4项目的交付与并网进度；（3）微软等核心大客户的实际运营与履约情况；（4）2027/2028年新AI合同的签订量与定价；（5）每MW营收（Revenue per MW）；（6）GPU采购与数据中心建设的融资成本及资本开支需求；（7）客户集中度风险IREN 正凭借其在北美优质的电力储备与液冷数据中心建设能力，迅速跻身全球顶尖AI算力“卖水人”行列。巨额的长协订单为其长期现金流提供了极强的确定性，但短期内必须跨越重资产扩张期的交付与融资大考。建议交易区间：35美元至50美元。积极前景。 

 

Affirm Holdings Inc. (AFRM) 

• 4Q26 Revenue: $1.2B, +36.9% YoY, beat estimates by $90M 

• 4Q26 GAAP EPS: $4.62, beat estimates by $4.27 

• FY27 Guidance: Expect GMV of more than $64B, revenue similar to FY’26 as a % of GMV (~8.49%), RLTC similar to FY’26 as a % of GMV (~4.16%), adjusted operating margin of more than 30.5% and GAAP operating margin of more than 14.5% 

• 1Q27 Guidance: Expect GMV of $13.7 to $14.0B, revenue $1,190 to $1,220M, transaction costs $615 to $630M, operating margin 11.5 to 13.5% and adjusted operating margin 28.0 to 30.0%. 

• Comment: Affirm delivered a strong fiscal 4Q26, with revenue rising 33% YoY to US$1.17bn and adjusted EPS of US$4.62, comfortably exceeding market expectations, supported by 36% GMV growth to US$14.1bn, its 11th consecutive quarter of at least 30% GMV growth. Revenue less transaction costs (RLTC) increased 39% to US$589mn, while adjusted operating margin expanded to 30%. Growth remained broad-based, with active merchants increasing more than 50% to 571,000, active consumers rising 21% to 27.8 million, and Affirm Card GMV surging 124% YoY as cardholders more than doubled to 5.2mn. The company also strengthened its leadership team through internal promotions and announced plans to expand Shop Pay Installments into Australia with Shopify, further extending its global ecosystem. Looking ahead, Affirm expects its strong growth trajectory to continue, targeting more than US$64bn in GMV for fiscal 2027 while maintaining revenue and RLTC margins broadly in line with fiscal 2026 and delivering an adjusted operating margin above 30.5%. Management expects first-quarter fiscal 2027 GMV of US$13.7-14.0bn and revenue of US$1.19-1.22bn, supported by continued expansion of its merchant network, growing adoption of the Affirm Card, and new international opportunities such as the rollout of Shop Pay Installments in Australia. With sustained user growth, improving profitability and disciplined execution, Affirm appears well positioned to capitalize on the increasing adoption of buy-now-pay-later solutions while continuing to scale its consumer finance platform. 1Q27 recommended trading range: $75 to $90. Positive Outlook. 

 

Affirm Holdings Inc. (AFRM) 

• 26财年第四季度营收：12.0亿美元，同比增长36.9%，超出预期9000万美元 

• 26财年第四季度GAAP每股收益：4.62美元，超出预期4.27美元 

• 27财年指引：预计商品交易总额（GMV）将超过640亿美元；营收占GMV的比例与26财年相近（约8.49%）；扣除交易成本后的收入（RLTC）占GMV的比例与26财年相近（约4.16%）；调整后营业利润率预计超过30.5%，GAAP营业利润率预计超过14.5% 

• 27财年第一季度指引：预计GMV为137亿至140亿美元；营收为11.90亿至12.20亿美元；交易成本为6.15亿至6.30亿美元；营业利润率为11.5%至13.5%，调整后营业利润率为28.0%至30.0% 

• 短评：Affirm 在26财年第四季度表现强劲，营收同比增长33%至11.7亿美元，调整后EPS达4.62美元，轻松超越市场预期。这主要得益于GMV同比增长36%至141亿美元，且已连续11个季度实现至少30%的GMV增长。扣除交易成本后的收入（RLTC）增长39%至5.89亿美元，调整后营业利润率扩大至30%。业务呈现全面增长态势：活跃商家数量增长超过50%至57.1万家，活跃消费者增长21%至2780万人，随着持卡人数量翻倍以上达到520万人，Affirm Card的GMV同比大幅激增124%。公司还通过内部晋升强化了领导团队，并宣布计划与Shopify合作将Shop Pay Installments拓展至澳大利亚，进一步延伸其全球生态系统。展望未来，Affirm 预计强劲的增长势头仍将延续，目标是27财年GMV超过640亿美元，同时保持营收和RLTC利润率与26财年大致持平，并交付30.5%以上的调整后营业利润率。管理层预计27财年第一季度GMV为137亿–140亿美元，营收为11.90亿–12.20亿美元，这主要受到商家网络持续扩张、Affirm Card采纳率提升以及诸如在澳大利亚推出Shop Pay Installments等新国际机遇的支撑。凭借持续的用户增长、不断改善的盈利能力以及纪律严明的执行力，Affirm 拥有良好的竞争优势，有望进一步把握“先买后付”（BNPL）解决方案日益普及的红利，并持续扩大其消费金融平台的规模。27财年第一季度建议交易区间：75美元至90美元。积极前景。 

 

Ulta Beauty Inc. (ULTA) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $3.03B, +8.2% YoY, beat estimates by $50M 

• 2Q26 GAAP EPS: $6.55, beat estimates by $0.35 

• FY26 Guidance: Raised full year guidance, earnings per share of $28.70 to $29.00, up from its prior range of $28.36 to $28.80. The midpoint of $28.85 is slightly above the analyst consensus of $28.78. Net sales growth is now projected at 6.7% to 7.2%, compared to the previous outlook of 6% to 7%, while comparable sales growth is expected to be 3.2% to 3.7%, up from 2.5% to 3.5%. 

• Dividends/Share buyback: The company repurchased 1.4M shares at a cost of $791.1M during the first six months of fiscal 2026. The company increased its stock repurchase plan for fiscal 2026 to $1.8B from $1.5B and expects to utilize the remaining $1.0B available under its current authorization by year-end. 

• Comment: Ulta Beauty delivered a strong fiscal 2Q26, with revenue rising 8.9% YoY to US$3.04bn and adjusted EPS of US$6.55, both exceeding market expectations, driven by comparable sales growth of 3.8% and continued disciplined execution of its Ulta Beauty Unleashed strategy. Operating income increased 10.1% YoY, while gross margin remained largely stable at 39.1%, despite a modest mix impact from the Space NK business. The company also continued to return capital to shareholders, repurchasing 1.4mn shares for US$791mn during the first half and increasing its planned fiscal 2026 buyback authorization to US$1.8bn. Reflecting continued momentum across the business, management raised its full-year guidance for earnings, net sales growth, and comparable sales. Looking ahead, Ulta Beauty expects continued growth to be supported by its Ulta Beauty Unleashed strategy, ongoing customer engagement, and a resilient beauty spending environment. Management raised its fiscal 2026 outlook, forecasting net sales growth of 6.7%-7.2%, comparable sales growth of 3.2%-3.7%, and EPS of US$28.70-29.00, while also accelerating shareholder returns through an expanded share repurchase programme. Although comparable sales growth is moderating from exceptionally strong prior-year levels and the company continues to face an evolving competitive landscape, Ulta remains well positioned to deliver sustainable earnings growth through disciplined execution, product innovation, and capital allocation. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $500 to $540. Neutral Outlook. 

 

Ulta Beauty Inc. (ULTA) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：30.3亿美元，同比增长8.2%，超出预期5000万美元 

• 26财年第二季度GAAP每股收益：6.55美元，超出预期0.35美元 

• 26财年指引：上调全年指引，每股收益预计为28.70至29.00美元，高于此前预测的28.36至28.80美元（其中位数28.85美元略高于分析师共识预期的28.78美元）；净销售额增长率目前预计为6.7%至7.2%（此前预期为6%至7%）；同店销售额增长率预计为3.2%至3.7%（此前预期为2.5%至3.5%） 

• 股息/股票回购：公司在26财年前六个月斥资7.911亿美元回购了140万股股票。公司将26财年的股票回购计划额度从15亿美元提高至18亿美元，并预计在年末前使用完现有授权下剩余的10亿美元额度 

• 短评：Ulta Beauty 在26财年第二季度交付了强劲的业绩，营收同比增长8.9%至30.4亿美元，调整后EPS为6.55美元，双双超出市场预期，这主要得益于3.8%的同店销售额增长以及对其“Ulta Beauty Unleashed”战略持续严明的执行。营业利润同比增长10.1%，尽管受到Space NK业务轻微的产品组合影响，毛利率仍基本稳定在39.1%。公司继续向股东回购资本，在上半年斥资7.91亿美元回购了140万股股票，并将26财年计划的回购授权增至18亿美元。鉴于业务持续保持良好势头，管理层上调了对全年盈利、净销售额增长和同店销售额的指引。展望未来，Ulta Beauty 预计在“Ulta Beauty Unleashed”战略、持续的客户互动以及具备韧性的美容消费环境支撑下，公司将保持持续增长。管理层上调了26财年展望，预测净销售额增长6.7%–7.2%，同店销售额增长3.2%–3.7%，EPS为28.70–29.00美元，同时通过扩大的股票回购计划加速股东回报。尽管同店销售额增速相比去年的极高基数有所放缓，且公司仍面临不断变化的竞争格局，但Ulta凭借严明的执行力、产品创新和资本配置，依然具备实现可持续盈利增长的良好竞争优势。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：500美元至540美元。中性前景。 

 

Workday Inc. (WDAY) 

• 2Q27 Revenue: $2.65B, +12.88% YoY, beat estimates by $10M 

• 2Q27 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.75, beat estimates by $0.14 

• 3Q27 Guidance: Expect subscription revenue of $2.52B 

• Comment: Workday reported solid fiscal 2Q27 results, with total revenue rising 13% YoY to US$2.65bn, slightly ahead of expectations, while subscription revenue increased 13.9% to US$2.47bn. The company highlighted strong adoption of its AI solutions, with more than half of its net new customers in the quarter purchasing at least one AI product, reinforcing AI as a key driver of platform modernization rather than a competitive threat. Management noted that AI capabilities are increasingly helping win new enterprise deployments and encouraging customers to migrate to the Workday platform. While third-quarter subscription revenue guidance was broadly in line with expectations, management reiterated confidence in sustaining subscription revenue growth of nearly 11% into fiscal 2028, underscoring continued demand for its cloud-based HR and finance solutions. Looking ahead, Workday expects AI to remain a key catalyst for customer acquisition and platform expansion, as enterprises increasingly adopt intelligent automation across human resources and finance workflows. Management remains confident in maintaining subscription revenue growth of around 11% into fiscal 2028, supported by continued AI adoption, new core platform deployments, and deeper penetration within existing customers. Although competition from large technology companies and ongoing AI investment requirements remain key risks, Workday’s integrated AI strategy and expanding enterprise customer base position the company well to deliver durable long-term growth. 3Q27 recommended trading range: $180 to $210. Neutral Outlook. 

 

Workday Inc. (WDAY) 

• 27财年第二季度营收：26.5亿美元，同比增长12.88%，超出预期1000万美元 

• 27财年第二季度Non-GAAP每股收益：2.75美元，超出预期0.14美元 

• 27财年第三季度指引：预计订阅营收为25.2亿美元 

• 短评：Workday 公布了稳健的27财年第二季度财报，总营收同比增长13%至26.5亿美元，略超预期；其中订阅营收同比增长13.9%至24.7亿美元。公司强调其AI解决方案获得了强劲的采纳率，本季度超过半数的新增净客户购买了至少一款AI产品，这强化了AI作为平台现代化核心驱动力而非竞争威胁的定位。管理层指出，AI功能正日益帮助公司赢得新的企业级部署，并鼓励客户迁移至Workday平台。虽然第三季度订阅营收指引大体符合预期，但管理层重申有信心将近11%的订阅营收增速维持至2028财年，凸显了市场对其基于云的人力资源及财务解决方案的持续需求。展望未来，随着企业在人力资源和财务工作流中日益采纳智能自动化，Workday 预计AI将继续成为客户获取和平台扩张的关键催化剂。在AI采纳率提升、新核心平台部署以及现有客户渗透率加深的支撑下，管理层对维持约11%的订阅营收增速直至2028财年充满信心。尽管来自大型科技公司的竞争以及持续的AI投资需求仍是主要风险，但Workday 整合的AI战略和不断扩大的企业客户群，为其交付持久的长期增长奠定了良好基础。27财年第三季度建议交易区间：180美元至210美元。中性前景。 

 

Rubrik Inc. (RBRK) 

• 2Q27 Revenue: $427.6M, +38.0% YoY, beat estimates by $31.3M 

• 2Q27 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.20, beat estimates by $0.16 

• FY27 Guidance: Raised full-year revenue range to $1.685B to $1.693B from the $1.638B to $1.648B it gave in June, ahead of the $1.64B analysts consensus. Full-year adjusted earnings guidance jumped to 47 to 53 cents per share from 25 to 35 cents. 

• 3Q27 Guidance: Management expects revenue of $429M to $431M and adjusted earnings of seven to nine cents per share 

• Comment: Rubrik delivered another strong quarter, with fiscal 2Q27 revenue rising 38% YoY to US$427.3mn, comfortably ahead of expectations, while adjusted EPS of US$0.20 reversed a loss a year earlier. Growth was underpinned by robust subscription momentum, with subscription ARR increasing 33% YoY to US$1.66bn and cloud ARR growing 39% to US$1.48bn, alongside a 23% increase in customers generating over US$100,000 in subscription ARR. The company also continued to improve profitability, narrowing its net loss, expanding subscription ARR contribution margins to 14%, and generating positive free cash flow. During the quarter, Rubrik strengthened its AI and cybersecurity platform through the launch of Rubrik AI, expansion of its Agent Cloud ecosystem, the acquisition of identity security specialist Strata.io, and increased investments in Europe. Looking ahead, Rubrik remains well positioned to benefit from growing enterprise demand for AI-driven cyber resilience, cloud security and autonomous recovery solutions. Management expects continued growth in subscription ARR, supported by expanding adoption of Rubrik AI, deeper strategic partnerships with global systems integrators, and the integration of identity security capabilities following the Strata.io acquisition. With an upgraded full-year outlook, improving operating leverage and a strong cash position, the company is well placed to continue investing in innovation and international expansion. While near-term share price volatility may persist following strong gains, Rubrik’s expanding AI security platform and recurring revenue model should support sustained long-term growth. 3Q27 recommended trading range: $90 to $120. Neutral Outlook. 

 

Rubrik Inc. (RBRK)  

• 27财年第二季度营收：4.276亿美元，同比增长38.0%，超出预期3130万美元 

• 27财年第二季度Non-GAAP每股收益：0.20美元，超出预期0.16美元 

• 27财年指引：将全年营收区间从6月给出的16.38亿–16.48亿美元上调至16.85亿–16.93亿美元，高于分析师共识预期的16.4亿美元。全年调整后每股收益指引从25–35美分大幅调升至47–53美分 

• 27财年第三季度指引：管理层预计营收为4.29亿至4.31亿美元，调整后每股收益为7至9美分 

• 短评：Rubrik 再次交付了强劲的季度业绩，27财年第二季度营收同比增长38%至4.273亿美元，轻松超越预期，同时调整后EPS为0.20美元，实现了同比扭亏为盈。强劲的订阅势头为业务增长提供了支撑：订阅ARR同比增长33%至16.6亿美元，云ARR增长39%至14.8亿美元，同时产生超过10万美元订阅ARR的客户数量增长了23%。公司盈利能力也在持续改善，净亏损进一步收窄，订阅ARR贡献利润率扩大至14%，并实现了正向自由现金流。在本季度，Rubrik 通过推出 Rubrik AI、扩展其 Agent Cloud 生态系统、收购身份安全专家 Strata.io 以及加大在欧洲的投资，强化了其AI及网络安全平台。展望未来，Rubrik 拥有良好的竞争优势，有望从企业对AI驱动的网络韧性、云安全及自主恢复解决方案日益增长的需求中持续受益。在 Rubrik AI 采纳率扩大、与全球系统集成商深化战略合作以及完成 Strata.io 收购后对身份安全功能整合的支撑下，管理层预计订阅ARR将保持持续增长。凭借调升的全年展望、不断改善的运营杠杆以及强劲的现金储备，公司已准备好继续投资于技术创新与国际化扩张。尽管在股价大幅上涨后短期内可能存在波动，但 Rubrik 不断扩张的AI安全平台和经常性营收模式将为其可持续的长期增长提供支撑。27财年第三季度建议交易区间：90美元至120美元。中性前景。