Technical Analysis: 27 October 2026

Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: US$34.31bn, +1.5% YoY; approximately US$460m below US$34.77bn consensus. Mobility and broadband service revenue grew 2.9% to US$23.5bn, while equipment revenue fell 9%. 

• 3Q26 EPS: Adjusted diluted EPS US$1.31 versus US$1.21, +8.3%; beat US$1.27 consensus by US$0.04. GAAP EPS US$1.25 versus US$1.17, +6.8%. 

• 4Q26 Guidance: Mobility and broadband service revenue expected to grow approximately 4% YoY. The company did not provide standalone Q4 total revenue or EPS guidance. 

• FY26 Guidance: Adjusted EPS raised to US$5.04–5.06, or 7–7.5% growth, from 6–7% growth. Phone net additions raised to 1.1–1.2m from the upper half of 0.75–1.0m. Free cash flow growth to approach 12%, versus 9–10%; service revenue growth in the upper half of 2.5–3%. Capex US$16.0–16.5bn unchanged. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: First-nine-month dividends US$8.8bn and buybacks US$4.0bn; full-year repurchases still expected to reach up to US$4.5bn. Q3 free cash flow US$7.8bn, +12.1%. 

• Comment: Verizon’s operating improvement supports a positive outlook despite the headline revenue miss. Phone net additions of 406,000 and lower churn suggest that customer retention is improving alongside acquisition. Lower promotional spending is particularly encouraging because subscriber growth supported by persistent subsidies would have weaker economics. Service growth is accelerating, while lower device upgrades and subsidies explain part of the equipment weakness. The distinction matters: a smaller hardware sale does not necessarily signal deterioration in the recurring customer relationship. Higher earnings and cash-flow guidance provide evidence that the operational changes are reaching shareholders. Nevertheless, the business remains capital intensive, and the US$123.7bn net unsecured debt balance limits flexibility. The AWS agreement worth more than US$2bn adds a potential growth source, but contract value should not be treated as immediate quarterly revenue. Execution and the timing of cash receipts remain important. Shares closed at US$43.10 on 26 October, down 3.49%, showing that stronger subscriber metrics have not yet removed market concerns. At about 8.5 times the FY26 adjusted EPS midpoint, valuation offers support if service growth and cash conversion persist. Watch churn, account revenue, promotional costs, fiber returns and debt reduction. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$40–50. Positive Outlook. 
  
  

威瑞森通信 (VZ) 

• 26财年第三季度营收：收入343.1亿美元，同比增长1.5%；较347.7亿美元预期低约4.6亿美元。移动及宽带服务收入增长2.9%至235亿美元，设备收入下降9%。 

• 26财年第三季度每股收益：经调整摊薄每股盈利1.31美元，去年1.21美元，同比增长8.3%；较1.27美元预期高0.04美元。GAAP每股盈利1.25美元，去年1.17美元，增长6.8%。 

• 26财年第四季度指引：移动及宽带服务收入预计同比增长约4%。公司未提供独立的第四季度总收入或每股盈利指引。 

• 26财年全年指引：经调整每股盈利上调至5.04–5.06美元，即增长7–7.5%，此前为增长6–7%。手机净新增用户由75万–100万区间的上半段上调至110万–120万。自由现金流增速由9–10%上调至接近12%；服务收入增速处于2.5–3%区间上半段。资本开支维持160亿–165亿美元。 

• 股息与回购：首九个月支付股息88亿美元、回购股份40亿美元；全年仍预计回购最多45亿美元。第三季度自由现金流78亿美元，增长12.1%。 

• 短评：尽管总收入低于预期，威瑞森经营改善支持正面前景。手机净新增用户40.6万及流失率下降，显示获取客户的同时，留存情况亦改善。推广支出下降尤其值得关注，因为持续依赖补贴的用户增长经济效益较弱。服务收入加速增长，设备收入疲弱则部分反映换机及补贴减少；硬件销售下降未必代表经常性客户关系恶化。盈利及现金流指引提高，证明经营调整开始惠及股东。不过，业务仍需大量资本投入，1,237亿美元净无抵押债务限制财务灵活性。超过20亿美元的AWS协议带来潜在增长来源，但合约价值不应视作即时季度收入，执行及收款时间仍重要。股价于10月26日收报43.10美元，下跌3.49%，显示更强用户指标尚未消除市场疑虑。按全年经调整每股盈利中值计算约8.5倍，若服务增长及现金转化持续，估值具支持。我们的区间采用该盈利基础的8–10倍。应关注流失率、账户收入、推广成本、光纤投资回报及债务下降。 2026年第四季度建议交易区间：40–50美元。正面前景。 

Celestica Inc. (CLS) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: US$5.83bn versus US$3.19bn, +83% YoY; approximately US$360m above US$5.47bn consensus. 

• 3Q26 EPS: Non-GAAP adjusted diluted EPS US$3.30 versus US$1.58, +108.9%; beat US$2.97 consensus by US$0.33. GAAP diluted EPS US$3.26 versus US$2.31, +41.1%. 

• 4Q26 Guidance: Revenue US$6.275–6.575bn; adjusted EPS US$3.37–3.57; adjusted operating margin 8.7% at the revenue and EPS midpoints. Assumed adjusted tax rate approximately 20%. 

• FY26 Guidance: FY26 revenue raised to US$21.0bn from US$20.5bn and adjusted EPS to US$11.55 from US$11.30. Free cash flow cut to US$460m from US$600m; adjusted operating margin 8.4% unchanged. Initial FY27 guidance: revenue US$40.0bn, adjusted EPS US$21.50, adjusted operating margin 9.0% and capex US$1.5–2.0bn. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: No cash dividend announced in the results. Intends to seek TSX approval for a new buyback covering up to 2.5% of public float after the current programme expires on 2 November; this is conditional, not an approved new authorisation. 

• Comment: Celestica’s 2027 outlook materially strengthens the growth case and supports a positive view, although funding and execution deserve equal attention. Revenue is growing rapidly and the higher adjusted operating margin shows that scale is translating into profit. The initial 2027 revenue target almost doubles the revised 2026 base, while the EPS target implies another substantial step in earnings. This supports valuing the business against its disclosed forward opportunity rather than extrapolating the latest quarter alone. However, the lower 2026 free-cash-flow forecast is a meaningful counterweight. Working capital must rise ahead of customer deployments, and the US$1.5–2.0bn capital programme for 2027 increases the importance of cash discipline. Customer forecasts are not irrevocable orders; deployment delays, component availability and programme concentration can disrupt the ramp. The completed US$3.45bn gross equity offering improves funding capacity while increasing dilution. Shares reached US$288.07 at 7:59pm ET on 26 October, up 16.79% after hours from US$246.65, reflecting the scale of the guidance reset. That price is about 13.4 times management’s FY27 adjusted EPS target. Our 12–16 times range allows for strong growth while retaining a substantial execution discount. Watch customer concentration, working capital, capacity commissioning and conversion of forecasts into shipped systems. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$260–345. Positive Outlook. 
  
  

天弘科技 (CLS) 

• 26财年第三季度营收：收入58.3亿美元，去年31.9亿美元，同比增长83%；较54.7亿美元预期高约3.6亿美元。 

• 26财年第三季度每股收益：非GAAP经调整摊薄每股盈利3.30美元，去年1.58美元，增长108.9%；较2.97美元预期高0.33美元。GAAP摊薄每股盈利3.26美元，去年2.31美元，增长41.1%。 

• 26财年第四季度指引：收入62.75亿–65.75亿美元；经调整每股盈利3.37–3.57美元；收入及盈利区间中值对应经调整经营利润率8.7%。假设经调整税率约20%。 

• 26财年全年指引：2026年收入由205亿美元上调至210亿美元，经调整每股盈利由11.30美元上调至11.55美元。自由现金流由6亿美元下调至4.6亿美元；经调整经营利润率维持8.4%。首次提供2027年指引：收入400亿美元、经调整每股盈利21.50美元、经调整经营利润率9.0%，资本开支15亿–20亿美元。 

• 股息与回购：业绩中未宣布现金股息。现有计划于11月2日到期后，拟向多伦多证券交易所申请新回购计划，最多回购公众持股量的2.5%；仍须批准，并非已获授权的新计划。 

• 短评：天弘科技的2027年前景显著增强增长逻辑，支持正面观点，但融资及执行同样重要。收入快速增长，经调整经营利润率提高，显示规模正转化为利润。首次公布的2027年收入目标接近修订后2026年基数的两倍，每股盈利目标亦显著提升，因此估值可参考已披露的未来业务机会，而非单纯外推本季度。不过，2026年自由现金流预测下调构成重要制衡。客户部署前需增加营运资金，2027年15亿–20亿美元资本开支亦提高现金管理要求。客户预测并非不可撤销订单，部署延误、零部件供应及项目集中可能影响增长。已完成的34.5亿美元股票发行总融资增强资金实力，但亦增加摊薄。10月26日美东时间晚上7时59分，股价报288.07美元，较246.65美元收盘价盘后上涨16.79%，反映指引大幅提高。该价格对应管理层2027年经调整每股盈利目标约13.4倍。我们采用12–16倍区间，在承认强劲增长的同时保留执行风险折价。应关注客户集中度、营运资金、产能投产及客户预测转化为系统交付的情况。 2026年第四季度建议交易区间：260–345美元。正面前景。 

Cadence Design Systems Inc. (CDNS) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: US$1.633bn versus US$1.339bn, +22.0% YoY; approximately US$23m above US$1.61bn consensus. Recurring revenue grew 18%. 

• 3Q26 EPS: Non-GAAP diluted EPS US$2.11 versus US$1.93, +9.3%; beat US$2.04 consensus by US$0.07. GAAP diluted EPS US$1.05, unchanged YoY. 

• 4Q26 Guidance: Revenue US$1.695–1.725bn; non-GAAP diluted EPS US$2.19–2.25 and GAAP EPS US$1.23–1.29. Non-GAAP operating margin 44–45%. 

• FY26 Guidance: Revenue raised to US$6.387–6.417bn from US$6.26–6.34bn; non-GAAP EPS US$8.37–8.43 from US$8.05–8.15. Non-GAAP operating margin 44.2–45.2% from 43.75–44.75%; GAAP EPS US$4.84–4.90 from US$4.76–4.86. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: Q3 buybacks US$400m; board approved an additional US$2.5bn repurchase authorisation. No cash dividend announced in the reviewed results. 

• Comment: Cadence’s broad growth and higher annual guidance reinforce the operating outlook, but valuation keeps our overall view neutral. Growth across core EDA, IP and system design reduces reliance on a single product cycle. AI-driven chip complexity creates demand for verification and design tools, while new AI workflows may increase the value delivered to customers. However, early customer engagement should be distinguished from proven incremental monetisation. Record backlog of US$8.2bn and US$4.2bn of revenue expected from remaining obligations over the next twelve months support visibility, but backlog is not immediately recognised revenue. Profit conversion also deserves scrutiny. Non-GAAP operating margin declined to 44.1% from 47.6%, leaving EPS growth well behind revenue growth, and GAAP EPS was flat. The higher annual margin outlook is encouraging, but the gap between GAAP and adjusted earnings remains material. Repurchases support per-share returns, although authorisation does not ensure purchases at attractive prices. Shares traded at US$330.60 on 26 October, up 2.62% after hours. That is about 39.4 times the revised FY26 non-GAAP EPS midpoint, already recognising a substantial quality premium. Watch recurring growth, hardware delivery timing, acquisition integration, margins and conversion of AI engagements into revenue. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$300–370. Neutral Outlook. 
  
  

楷登电子 (CDNS) 

• 26财年第三季度营收：收入16.33亿美元，去年13.39亿美元，同比增长22.0%；较16.1亿美元预期高约2,300万美元。经常性收入增长18%。 

• 26财年第三季度每股收益：非GAAP摊薄每股盈利2.11美元，去年1.93美元，增长9.3%；较2.04美元预期高0.07美元。GAAP摊薄每股盈利1.05美元，同比持平。 

• 26财年第四季度指引：收入16.95亿–17.25亿美元；非GAAP摊薄每股盈利2.19–2.25美元，GAAP每股盈利1.23–1.29美元。非GAAP经营利润率44–45%。 

• 26财年全年指引：收入由62.6亿–63.4亿美元上调至63.87亿–64.17亿美元；非GAAP每股盈利由8.05–8.15美元上调至8.37–8.43美元。非GAAP经营利润率由43.75–44.75%上调至44.2–45.2%；GAAP每股盈利由4.76–4.86美元上调至4.84–4.90美元。 

• 股息与回购：第三季度回购4亿美元；董事会新增25亿美元回购授权。所审阅业绩未宣布现金股息。 

• 短评：楷登各业务广泛增长及全年指引提高，强化经营前景，但估值使我们整体维持中性。核心EDA、IP及系统设计均增长，降低对单一产品周期的依赖。AI芯片复杂度提升带来验证及设计工具需求，新AI工作流程亦可能提高客户获得的价值。不过，早期客户参与不等同已实现额外收入。82亿美元创纪录积压订单，以及未来十二个月预计确认的42亿美元剩余履约义务收入，支持可见度，但积压订单不会即时确认为收入。利润转化亦需关注。非GAAP经营利润率由47.6%降至44.1%，每股盈利增速明显落后于收入，GAAP每股盈利则持平。全年利润率指引上调令人鼓舞，但GAAP与调整后盈利差距仍大。回购支持每股回报，但授权不保证以吸引价格执行。10月26日美东时间晚上7时59分，股价报330.60美元，较322.17美元收盘价盘后上涨2.62%。该价格对应修订后的全年非GAAP每股盈利中值约39.4倍，已反映明显质量溢价。我们采用该盈利基础的36–44倍区间。应关注经常性收入增速、硬件交付时点、收购整合、利润率及AI客户参与转化为收入的情况。 2026年第四季度建议交易区间：300–370美元。中性前景。 

Rambus Inc. (RMBS) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: US$218.3m versus US$178.5m, +22.3% YoY; approximately US$5.1m above US$213.21m consensus. Product revenue US$114.3m, +22% YoY and +15% QoQ. 

• 3Q26 EPS: Non-GAAP diluted EPS US$0.84 versus US$0.62, +35.5%; beat approximately US$0.79 consensus by US$0.05. GAAP diluted EPS US$0.69 versus US$0.44, +56.8%. 

• 4Q26 Guidance: Revenue US$227–233m, including product revenue US$127–133m; non-GAAP EPS US$0.84–0.92 and GAAP EPS US$0.68–0.76. Royalty revenue US$68–74m and contract/other revenue US$26–32m. 

• FY26 Guidance: The company did not provide full-year revenue or EPS guidance in the Q3 results. The Q4 outlook should not be presented as a separately issued annual forecast. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: Q3 share repurchases US$135.4m. No cash dividend announced. Cash, equivalents and marketable securities US$776.9m; operating cash flow US$102.5m and capex US$11.2m. 

• Comment: Rambus’s record product sales and higher Q4 outlook support a positive operating view. Demand for memory-interface devices benefits from the growing bandwidth requirements of AI and data-centre systems. Expansion into companion chips and security IP also offers opportunities to increase content, but product announcements do not themselves establish material revenue. The key near-term evidence is the guided increase in product sales. Royalty revenue is expected to decline sequentially at the midpoint, so the next quarter’s growth is increasingly dependent on chips and contract work rather than uniform improvement across every revenue stream. That mix matters because product manufacturing carries different margins and supply requirements from licensing. Record operating cash flow strengthens funding capacity, although repurchases exceeded quarterly cash generation and contributed to a lower cash balance. The balance sheet remains an asset, but buybacks should be judged against future inventory and development needs. Shares traded at US$89.82 on 26 October, down 0.56% after hours, suggesting that the beat alone did not reset expectations. At about 25.5 times annualised Q4 non-GAAP EPS guidance, the valuation requires continued product execution. Our range applies 23–30 times that quarterly earnings reference. Watch DDR5 content, customer qualification, product margins, supply availability and royalty renewals. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$80–105. Positive Outlook. 
  
  

蓝铂世 (RMBS) 

• 26财年第三季度营收：收入2.183亿美元，去年1.785亿美元，同比增长22.3%；较2.1321亿美元预期高约510万美元。产品收入1.143亿美元，同比增长22%，环比增长15%。 

• 26财年第三季度每股收益：非GAAP摊薄每股盈利0.84美元，去年0.62美元，增长35.5%；较约0.79美元预期高0.05美元。GAAP摊薄每股盈利0.69美元，去年0.44美元，增长56.8%。 

• 26财年第四季度指引：收入2.27亿–2.33亿美元，其中产品收入1.27亿–1.33亿美元；非GAAP每股盈利0.84–0.92美元，GAAP每股盈利0.68–0.76美元。专利权使用费收入6,800万–7,400万美元，合约及其他收入2,600万–3,200万美元。 

• 26财年全年指引：公司未在第三季度业绩中提供全年收入或每股盈利指引。第四季度前景不应表述为另行发布的全年预测。 

• 股息与回购：第三季度回购股份1.354亿美元，未宣布现金股息。现金、现金等价物及有价证券7.769亿美元；经营现金流1.025亿美元，资本开支1,120万美元。 

• 短评：蓝铂世创纪录产品销售及更高第四季度前景支持正面经营观点。AI及数据中心系统带宽需求提升，有利存储器接口器件需求。配套芯片及安全IP亦带来提高单机价值量的机会，但发布产品本身并不代表已实现重大收入。短期关键证据是产品销售增长指引。专利权使用费收入中值预计环比下降，因此下季度增长更依赖芯片及合约业务，而非所有收入来源同步改善。产品制造与授权业务的利润率及供应要求不同，收入结构尤其重要。创纪录经营现金流增强资金实力，但回购超过季度现金创造，导致现金余额下降。资产负债表仍具优势，惟回购须兼顾未来库存及研发需要。10月26日美东时间晚上7时59分，股价报89.82美元，较90.32美元收盘价盘后下跌0.56%，显示超预期本身未能明显改变市场预期。按第四季度非GAAP每股盈利指引年化计算约25.5倍，估值要求产品持续执行。我们采用该季度盈利参考的23–30倍区间。应关注DDR5价值量、客户认证、产品利润率、供应能力及专利授权续约。 2026年第四季度建议交易区间：80–105美元。正面前景。 

Amkor Technology Inc. (AMKR) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: US$1.991bn versus US$1.987bn, +0.2% YoY; approximately US$49m below US$2.04bn consensus. Gross margin increased to 18.3% from 14.3%. 

• 3Q26 EPS: GAAP diluted EPS US$0.76 versus US$0.51, +49.0%; approximately US$0.02 below consensus of US$0.78. Operating margin 11.3% versus 8.0%. 

• 4Q26 Guidance: Revenue US$1.9–2.0bn; gross margin 18–19%; net income US$160–185m and GAAP diluted EPS US$0.65–0.75. 

• FY26 Guidance: The company did not provide full-year revenue or EPS guidance. FY26 capital expenditure outlook updated to approximately US$2.5bn from US$2.5–3.0bn. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: Quarterly dividend US$0.08352/share paid on 22 September. Q3 buybacks approximately US$32m. Cash and short-term investments US$2.4bn, compared with total debt of US$2.5bn. 

• Comment: Amkor’s earnings improvement is more convincing than its near-flat revenue, but the investment cycle keeps our outlook neutral. Record computing and automotive-and-industrial sales, together with higher margins, indicate a better product mix and improved profitability. Communications weakness remains a counterweight, showing that AI-related demand does not lift every packaging category. The Q3 consensus miss and Q4 revenue midpoint below Q3 suggest that the near-term growth path remains uneven. At the same time, the guided gross-margin range indicates that much of the profitability improvement could persist. Capacity expansion can strengthen Amkor’s strategic position, but customer commitments and advance payments should be assessed as funding and visibility benefits rather than immediate earnings. Substantial capital spending creates a gap between accounting profit and distributable cash, and new facilities must achieve satisfactory utilisation and yields. The lower capex range helps near-term funding, although spending timing should not be confused with a permanent reduction in investment needs. Shares traded at US$38.32 at 7:59pm ET on 26 October, up 4.10% after hours from US$36.81, despite the consensus miss. That price is about 13.7 times annualised Q4 EPS guidance. Our range applies 11.5–16 times this earnings reference. Watch computing ramps, communications demand, customer prepayments, cash conversion and expansion milestones. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$32–45. Neutral Outlook. 
  
  

安靠科技 (AMKR) 

• 26财年第三季度营收：收入19.91亿美元，去年19.87亿美元，同比增长0.2%；较20.4亿美元预期低约4,900万美元。毛利率由14.3%升至18.3%。 

• 26财年第三季度每股收益：GAAP摊薄每股盈利0.76美元，去年0.51美元，增长49.0%；较0.78美元市场预期低约0.02美元。经营利润率由8.0%升至11.3%。 

• 26财年第四季度指引：收入19亿–20亿美元；毛利率18–19%；净利润1.6亿–1.85亿美元，GAAP摊薄每股盈利0.65–0.75美元。 

• 26财年全年指引：公司未提供全年收入或每股盈利指引。2026年资本开支前景由25亿–30亿美元更新至约25亿美元。 

• 股息与回购：9月22日支付季度股息每股0.08352美元。第三季度回购约3,200万美元。现金及短期投资24亿美元，总债务25亿美元。 

• 短评：安靠盈利改善较接近持平的收入更具说服力，但投资周期使我们维持中性。计算及汽车与工业业务销售创纪录，加上利润率提高，显示产品结构及盈利能力改善。通信业务疲弱仍构成制衡，AI需求并非带动所有封装类别。第三季度低于预期，以及第四季度收入中值低于第三季度，显示短期增长仍不平稳。不过，毛利率指引显示盈利改善大部分或可持续。扩产有助增强战略地位，但客户承诺及预付款应视作资金及可见度支持，而非即时盈利。大规模资本开支令会计利润与可分配现金存在差距，新设施仍需达到合适利用率及良率。资本开支区间下调减轻短期资金压力，但支出时点改变不应等同永久降低投资需求。10月26日美东时间晚上7时59分，股价报38.32美元，较36.81美元收盘价盘后上涨4.10%，尽管业绩低于预期。按第四季度每股盈利指引年化计算约13.7倍。我们采用该盈利参考的11.5–16倍区间。应关注计算业务爬坡、通信需求、客户预付款、现金转化及扩产进度。 2026年第四季度建议交易区间：32–45美元。中性前景。