Micron Technology, Inc. (MU)
- 3Q26 Revenue: $41.46B, +345.8% YoY, beat estimates by $6.21B
- 3Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $25.11, beat estimates by $4.83
- FY26 Guidance: 4Q26 revenue guided to about $49B to $51B, above expectations, with adjusted EPS guided to about $30 to $32. Management also said premium memory supply is expected to remain tight through at least 2027 and disclosed about $22B of multiyear customer supply commitments.
- Comment: This was an exceptionally strong quarter. Revenue and adjusted EPS both came in far above expectations, and margins expanded sharply as pricing and mix improved on the back of AI-driven memory demand. High-bandwidth memory and datacentre exposure remain the key drivers, and the magnitude of the beat suggests Micron is benefiting not just from volume, but also from unusually strong pricing power. The key positive is visibility. Management disclosed $22B of customer commitments with take-or-pay features, deposits, and pricing floors, which materially improves demand certainty and reduces some of the usual memory-cycle volatility. The 4Q guide was also far ahead of expectations, and the stock rose roughly 12% to 16% after results, which reflects how decisive the quarter was. The main variables to monitor are how long current pricing strength can hold, whether supply catches up faster than expected in 2027, and whether elevated margins stay near current levels as output expands. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $1000 to $1500. Positive Outlook.
美光科技公司（MU)
- 26财年第三季度营收：414.6亿美元，同比暴增345.8%，大幅超出预期62.1亿美元
- 26财年第三季度非公认会计准则每股收益：25.11美元，显著超出预期4.83美元
- 26财年第四季度指引：营收490亿–510亿美元（远超市场预期），调整后EPS约30–32美元
- 长期能见度：管理层披露已获得约220亿美元的多年期客户供应承诺（含照付不议条款、预付款及价格下限），并预计高端内存供应紧张将持续至至少2027年
- 短评：本季度表现极为强劲，堪称周期拐点确认。营收与盈利双双远超预期，毛利率显著扩张，核心驱动力来自AI爆发带动的高带宽内存（HBM）。此轮上行不仅源于出货量增长，更体现为罕见的定价权提升——在传统高度周期性的内存行业，美光正享受供需错配带来的超额利润。最大亮点在于需求可见度空前提高：220亿美元的长期合约包含价格保护机制，大幅降低传统内存周期的波动性，使公司从“赌周期”转向“稳兑现”。Q4指引继续大幅上修，进一步验证AI基础设施建设对高端DRAM和NAND的持续拉动。财报发布后股价上涨12%–16%，市场视其为AI硬件供应链中最确定的受益者之一。后续关键变量包括：（1）当前高价格能否在2027年前维持；（2）竞争对手产能扩张是否导致供应过快恢复平衡；（3）随着自身产量提升，高利润率能否持续。若AI训练与推理需求保持强劲，美光有望在本轮上行周期中实现历史级盈利表现。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：1000美元至1500美元。积极前景。
Trip.com Group Limited (TCOM)
- 1Q26 Revenue: $2.35B, +23.0% YoY, beat estimates by $10M
- 1Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.83, miss estimates by $0.08
- 2Q26 Guidance: 2Q26 net revenue is expected to grow about 3% to 8% YoY, with management indicating a corresponding impact on margins and bottom-line results.
- Comment: This was a solid quarter on the top line. Accommodation reservation revenue rose 17% to RMB6.5B, transportation ticketing revenue rose 12% to RMB6.1B, packaged-tour revenue rose 19% to RMB1.1B, and corporate travel revenue rose 20% to RMB690M. International momentum was also strong, with international platform gross bookings up about 65% YoY and inbound travel bookings up about 90% YoY. The main issue is earnings quality and the near-term slowdown in outlook. Net income fell to RMB2.5B from RMB4.3B a year ago, while 2Q26 guidance implies a sharp deceleration in growth due to macro headwinds, elevated energy prices, geopolitical volatility, and internal operational adjustments tied to evolving compliance standards. There is also an ongoing SAMR antitrust investigation, which remains a material overhang. The principal variables to monitor are whether international and inbound growth can continue offsetting softer margins, whether 2Q26 lands within the guided range without a further profitability step-down, and how the SAMR investigation develops. 4Q26 recommended trading range: $35 to $55. Neutral Outlook.
携程集团有限公司（TCOM)
- 26财年第一季度营收：23.5亿美元，同比增长23.0%，超出预期1000万美元
- 26财年第一季度非公认会计准则每股收益：0.83美元，低于预期0.08美元
- 26财年第二季度指引：预计净营收同比增长约3%–8%，管理层提示该增速将对利润率和盈利产生相应影响
- 短评：本季度顶层增长依然稳健。住宿预订收入同比增长17%至65亿元人民币，交通票务增长12%至61亿元，跟团游增长19%至11亿元，商旅业务增长20%至6.9亿元。国际业务表现尤为亮眼：国际平台总预订额同比大增65%，入境游预订额飙升约90%，显示其全球化战略正有效兑现。然而，盈利质量显著承压：净利润从去年同期的43亿元人民币降至25亿元，主因成本上升、运营调整及宏观逆风。更关键的是，Q2指引暗示增长将大幅放缓——营收增速预期骤降至个位数，反映高油价、地缘政治不确定性、中国国内消费谨慎以及合规要求趋严等多重压力。此外，中国市场监管总局（SAMR），构成持续性政策风险。尽管国际与入境游成为新增长引擎，但短期内难以完全抵消利润率压力和本土需求疲软。后续关键变量包括：（1）国际及入境旅游高增长能否持续；（2）Q2实际业绩是否稳守指引区间，避免进一步下修；（3）SAMR反垄断调查进展及潜在影响。在宏观与监管双重不确定性下，携程虽具长期结构性优势，但短期盈利路径仍存波折。26财年第四季度建议交易区间：35美元至55美元。中性前景。
