Technical Analysis: 24 July 2026

Nokia Oyj (NOK) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: €4.82B, +8.3% YoY, miss estimates by €10M 

• 2Q26 Non-GAAP EPS:  €0.07, beat estimates by  €0.01 

• FY26 Guidance: FY26 comparable operating-profit guidance is now €2.1B–€2.6B, versus €2.0B–€2.5B previously. However, this was a technical revision following the reclassification of two businesses as discontinued operations rather than an underlying upgrade. 

• Dividends/Share Buybacks: Declared a €0.04-per-share dividend, payable on 6 August 2026. The Board retains authorization to distribute up to a further €0.06 per share. 

• Comment: This was a strong underlying quarter. AI and cloud customer revenue increased 105% to €446M, while new AI and cloud orders reached €2.8B. Management expects approximately half of these orders to convert into revenue over the next 12 months, providing improved visibility for Nokia’s optical and IP networking businesses. The main constraints are supply availability and restructuring costs. Comparable margins improved, but reported operating margin fell to negative 1.0% as Nokia accelerated restructuring actions. Management also expects 3Q operating profit to remain broadly flat sequentially, while rising memory-component prices could place pressure on equipment costs. Nokia’s U.S.-listed ADR declined approximately 5.4% following the results, despite the profit beat. The principal variables are conversion of the €2.8B AI order intake, optical-manufacturing capacity, component-cost inflation and execution of the €800M restructuring programme. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $9 to $11. Neutral Outlook. 

诺基亚公司（NOK) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：48.2亿欧元，同比增长8.3%，略低于预期1000万欧元 

• 26财年第二季度非公认会计准则每股收益：0.07欧元，小幅超出预期0.01欧元 

• 26财年全年指引调整：可比营业利润指引上调至21亿–26亿欧元（原为20亿–25亿欧元），但此调整主要源于两项业务被重新归类为“终止经营”，并非核心业务实质性改善 
  股息：宣布每股0.04欧元股息（2026年8月6日支付）；董事会保留额外派发最高0.06欧元/股的授权 

• 短评：本季度基本面表现强劲，尤其在AI与云网络领域取得突破。AI与云客户收入同比暴增105%至4.46亿欧元，新订单达28亿欧元，管理层预计其中约一半将在未来12个月内转化为收入，显著提升光网络与IP路由业务的能见度。然而，市场反应负面——美国存托凭证（ADR），主因以下制约因素：供应链瓶颈限制交付能力；重组成本高企：尽管可比利润率改善，但报告营业利润率为**-1.0%**，因公司加速推进8亿欧元重组计划；Q3营业利润预计环比持平，叠加内存等组件价格上涨，可能进一步挤压设备毛利率。尽管盈利小幅超预期，投资者更担忧短期执行压力与成本通胀对利润兑现的阻碍。此外，全年利润指引的“上调”属会计调整，未反映运营实质升级，削弱了正面信号。后续关键变量包括：（1）28亿欧元AI相关订单向收入的转化效率；（2）光模块与制造产能能否匹配需求增长；（3）组件成本（如内存、芯片）是否继续上涨；（4）8亿欧元重组计划能否如期完成并释放协同效益。诺基亚正从传统电信设备商向AI驱动的网络基础设施提供商转型，在光传输与IP领域具备战略卡位优势。但短期盈利波动性高，估值受限于执行风险与行业竞争。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：9美元至11美元。中性前景。 

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $5.2B, +5.5% YoY, beat estimates by $60M 

• 2Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: –$0.20, beat estimates by $0.02 

• 3Q26 Guidance: 3Q26 adjusted EBITDA is expected to reach approximately $575M, more than double 2Q26. 

• FY26 Guidance: Maintained FY26 steel-shipment guidance of 16.5M–17.0M tons and capex guidance of approximately $700M. 

• Comment: This was a clear operational inflection despite the company remaining loss-making. Pricing increased, adjusted EBITDA tripled sequentially and operating cash flow reached $230M. Automotive demand remained resilient, while completed maintenance outages should support higher utilization and lower unit costs in the second half. The principal positive is the sharp step-up expected in 3Q and 4Q profitability. Subdued imports, Section 232 tariffs and fixed-price contract resets should support domestic pricing, with management estimating approximately $500M of incremental 2027 EBITDA from contract repricing. However, the recovery remains highly sensitive to hot-rolled-coil prices, tariff policy, automotive production and execution on debt reduction. Shares rose approximately 16% after results as investors prioritized the stronger outlook over the near-term adjusted loss. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $9 to $12. Neutral Outlook. 

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.（CLF) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：52亿美元，同比增长5.5%，超出预期6000万美元 

• 26财年第二季度非公认会计准则每股亏损：0.20美元，优于预期0.02美元（亏损收窄） 

• 26财年第三季度指引：调整后EBITDA预计达约5.75亿美元，较Q2翻倍以上 

• 26财年全年指引：维持钢材出货量1650万–1700万吨、资本开支约7亿美元 

• 短评：本季度标志着明显的运营拐点，尽管公司仍处于账面亏损状态。产品售价回升、维护检修完成、汽车需求稳健共同推动调整后EBITDA环比增长三倍，经营性现金流达2.3亿美元，显示基本面显著改善。管理层对下半年盈利前景极为乐观：受益于进口低迷、232条款关税保护及固定价格合同重新定价，预计Q3起盈利能力将大幅跃升。更长期看，仅合同重定价一项，就可能在2027年带来约5亿美元的增量EBITDA，为盈利修复提供高能见度。财报后股价大涨约16%，反映市场更看重前瞻性盈利弹性而非当前亏损。投资者认可公司在北美钢铁市场中的整合优势与定价权。然而，复苏路径仍高度敏感于外部变量：（1）热轧卷板（HRC）；（2）美国贸易政策是否维持保护性关税；（3）汽车行业生产节奏是否持续稳健；（4）公司能否有效降低高企的债务水平（截至Q2净负债仍超100亿美元）。若HRC价格维持在800美元/短吨以上且汽车需求不退坡，Cleveland-Cliffs有望在H2实现强劲盈利反转，并加速去杠杆。但周期性行业属性决定其估值波动性较高。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：9美元至12美元。中性前景。 

American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $16.74B, +16.2% YoY, beat estimates by $50M 

• 2Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.15, beat estimates by $0.10 

• FY26 Guidance: Cut FY26 adjusted EPS guidance to a range of a $0.65 loss to a $0.65 profit, from a previous range of a $0.40 loss to a $1.10 profit. 

• Comment: The revenue performance was strong, with record quarterly sales and broad improvement across premium, domestic, international and corporate travel. Higher fares offset almost half of the $2.2B YoY increase in fuel expense, demonstrating improved pricing power. However, fuel expense increased 83% to $4.88B and absorbed nearly the entire incremental revenue contribution. The revised FY26 guidance now implies breakeven at the midpoint, while the expected 3Q loss indicates that strong demand is insufficient to protect earnings at current fuel prices. Shares fell approximately 8% after results. The principal variables are jet-fuel prices, fare recovery, premium and corporate demand, non-fuel cost discipline and progress in closing the margin gap with Delta and United. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $10 to $15. Negative Outlook. 

American Airlines Group Inc.（AAL) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：167.4亿美元，同比增长16.2%，小幅超出预期5000万美元 

• 26财年第二季度非公认会计准则每股收益：0.15美元，显著超出预期0.10美元 

• 26财年全年指引大幅下调：调整后EPS指引收窄至亏损0.65美元至盈利0.65美元（原为亏损0.40美元至盈利1.10美元），中值归零，暗示全年可能仅勉强盈亏平衡 

• 短评：本季度顶层需求强劲，创下历史最高季度营收，高端舱位、国内、国际及企业旅行全面改善。公司展现出更强的定价能力——票价上涨抵消了约一半的燃油成本飙升（同比增加22亿美元）。然而，燃油支出同比暴增83%至48.8亿美元，几乎吞噬全部新增收入，导致盈利极度脆弱。尽管Q2实现小幅盈利，但管理层预计第三季度仍将录得亏损，凸显当前高油价环境下，即使需求旺盛，也难以保障可持续利润。财报后股价大跌约8%，反映市场对盈利能见度缺失与结构性劣势的担忧。相较于达美（DAL）和美联航（UAL），美航在单位成本、运力纪律和利润率方面仍存差距，修复进度慢于同业。后续关键变量包括：（1）航油价格走势（布伦特若回落至70美元/桶以下将显著缓解压力）；（2）票价能否继续跑赢成本涨幅；（3）高端及企业客户支出是否维持韧性；（4）非燃油成本控制成效（如劳动力、机场费用）；（5）能否加速缩小与竞争对手的盈利差距。尽管运营表现改善，但高杠杆资产负债表、燃油敞口大及盈利波动性强，使AAL在当前宏观环境下风险偏高。除非油价显著回落或行业协同提价，否则盈利复苏难言稳固。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：10美元至15美元。负面前景。 
   

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $7.03B, -7.3% YoY, beat estimates by $280M 

• 2Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.74, beat estimates by $0.12 

• FY26 Guidance: 3Q26 copper-sales guidance was reduced to approximately 750M pounds from 830M pounds, with most of the shortfall expected to be recovered in 4Q26, when sales are projected at approximately 940M pounds. The Grasberg Block Cave ramp-up remains on schedule, targeting approximately 65% operating capacity by end-2026 and full operations by end-2027. 

• Dividends/Share Buybacks: Declared a quarterly dividend of $0.15 per share, comprising a $0.075 base dividend and $0.075 variable dividend, payable on August 3, 2026 

• Comment: This was a strong pricing-led quarter. Copper production declined 18.2% and gold production fell 39.4%, but a 41.5% increase in average copper prices more than offset weaker volumes and enabled a meaningful earnings beat. The result reinforces FCX’s high operational leverage to structurally tight copper markets. The principal concern is near-term volume execution. The reduced 3Q copper-sales outlook and continuing Grasberg repairs create a heavier dependence on a strong 4Q recovery. The longer-term thesis remains supported by AI infrastructure, grid investment and constrained global mine supply, but near-term earnings remain sensitive to copper-price movements and the pace of Grasberg’s restart. Shares declined approximately 2.3% after results, broadly in line with the weaker market and lower copper prices. The key variables are Grasberg’s ramp-up, 4Q volume recovery, the potential U.S. refined-copper tariff and copper-price sustainability above $6/lb. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $55 to $75. Positive Outlook. 

Freeport-McMoRan Inc.（FCX) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：70.3亿美元，同比下降7.3%，但超出预期2.8亿美元 

• 26财年第二季度非公认会计准则每股收益：0.74美元，显著超出预期0.12美元 

• 26财年第三季度指引调整：铜销量下调至约7.5亿磅（原为8.3亿磅），预计大部分缺口将在Q4弥补（销量预计达9.4亿磅）；Grasberg地下矿扩产按计划推进，目标2026年底达65%产能，2027年底全面投产 

• 股息：宣布季度股息每股0.15美元（含0.075美元基础股息 + 0.075美元可变股息），2026年8月3日支付 

• 短评：本季度为典型的“价格驱动型超预期”。尽管铜产量同比下滑18.2%、黄金产量下降39.4%，但平均铜价同比大涨41.5%，完全抵消了量的损失，并推动盈利显著优于预期。这再次验证FCX在结构性紧缺的铜市场中具备极高的运营杠杆——铜价每上涨10%，对其利润影响远超同业。然而，短期执行风险上升：Q3铜销量指引下调，主因印尼Grasberg矿区仍在进行设备维修与系统优化，导致交付节奏延迟。公司高度依赖Q4强势反弹以实现全年目标，若恢复不及预期，可能影响现金流与市场信心。长期逻辑依然坚实：AI数据中心、电网现代化、能源转型持续推升铜需求，而全球新矿供应受限，支撑铜价中枢上移。当前铜价维持在6美元/磅以上，为FCX提供良好盈利环境。但近期铜价波动及市场对Grasberg进度的担忧，导致财报后股价微跌2.3%。后续关键变量包括：（1）Grasberg地下矿产能爬坡是否如期推进；（2）Q4销量能否强劲反弹至9.4亿磅；（3）美国拟议的精炼铜进口关税是否落地（或提振本土生产商定价权）；（4）铜价能否在6美元/磅以上企稳。尽管短期波动，FCX作为全球低成本铜龙头，在能源转型大周期中占据战略位置。若Grasberg顺利达产，2027年起将进入量价齐升的新阶段。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：55美元至75美元。积极前景。 

STMicroelectronics N.V. (STM) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $3.49B, +26.0% YoY, beat estimates by $20M 

• 2Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.31, beat estimates by $0.04 

• 3Q26 Guidance: 3Q26 revenue is guided to approximately $3.70B, +6.2% QoQ and +16.2% YoY, slightly below consensus of approximately $3.75B–$3.79B. Gross-margin guidance is 37.0%. 

• Dividend/Share Buybacks: Shareholders approved an annual dividend of $0.36 per share, distributed through four quarterly payments of $0.09. The existing 2024–2027 buyback programme authorises up to $1.1B, primarily for employee share plans and potential convertible-bond settlement. 

• Comment: The headline quarter was stronger than expected, with revenue and adjusted EPS beats, improving bookings across end markets and distributor inventory moving below management’s standard target. AI data centres and low-earth-orbit satellite communications are developing into material growth drivers, supporting the expected acceleration into 4Q26. However, the quality of the beat was insufficient against elevated expectations. Core EBITDA of $679M was below consensus of approximately $798M, while the 3Q revenue outlook modestly missed expectations. The automotive and industrial recovery also remains slower than investors had priced in, leaving earnings dependent on AI-related programmes and further margin normalisation. Shares fell 18.7%. The principal variables are automotive and industrial order recovery, execution of the above-$4B fourth-quarter revenue target, AI data-centre programme conversion and gross-margin expansion as unused-capacity charges decline. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $48 to $63. Neutral Outlook. 

STMicroelectronics N.V.（STM) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：34.9亿美元，同比增长26.0%，小幅超出预期2000万美元 

• 26财年第二季度非公认会计准则每股收益：0.31美元，超出预期0.04美元 

• 26财年第三季度指引：营收约37亿美元（环比+6.2%，同比+16.2%），略低于市场共识的37.5亿–37.9亿美元；毛利率指引为37.0% 

• 股息与回购：年度股息0.36美元/股（分四季度支付，每季0.09美元）；2024–2027年回购计划授权最高11亿美元，主要用于员工持股及可转债结算 

• 短评：本季度顶层数据超预期，需求呈现回暖迹象——各终端市场订单改善，渠道库存已降至管理层目标以下，显示供应链去库存接近尾声。AI数据中心与低轨卫星通信（LEO）正成为新增长引擎，支撑公司对Q4营收突破40亿美元的乐观展望。然而，盈利质量未达市场高预期：核心EBITDA为6.79亿美元，显著低于共识的约7.98亿美元；Q3营收指引小幅不及预期，叠加汽车与工业领域复苏仍显缓慢，令投资者失望。市场此前已将STM定价为“全面复苏+AI受益”双重逻辑，但实际表现更依赖AI相关项目，传统主力板块（汽车、工业）尚未明显反弹。财报后股价暴跌18.7%，反映预期差带来的剧烈修正。后续关键变量包括：（1）汽车与工业客户需求能否在Q3–Q4实质性回升；（2）能否兑现Q4超40亿美元的营收目标；（3）AI数据中心项目从设计导入到量产的转化效率；（4）产能利用率提升是否推动毛利率持续扩张（当前37%仍有上行空间）。STMicroelectronics技术布局完整，在功率半导体、MCU和传感器领域具备长期竞争力，且AI与太空通信带来新机遇。但短期增长动能仍不均衡，估值需等待传统业务确认拐点。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：48美元至63美元。中性前景。 

Blackstone Inc. (BX) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $5.04B, +35.8% YoY, beat estimates by $1.69B 

• 2Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.52, beat estimates by $0.18 

• 3Q26 Guidance: No explicit guidance provided 

• Dividends/Share buybacks: Declared a quarterly dividend of $1.29 per share, payable August 10, 2026, to shareholders of record on August 3 

• Comment: This was a strong quarter across both recurring and performance-linked earnings. Private-equity, infrastructure and real-estate appreciation benefited from Blackstone’s extensive exposure to AI infrastructure, with nine of its ten largest appreciating investments linked to AI. Infrastructure funds generated gross appreciation of 7.2%, while monetizations included data-centre assets and Sabre Industries. The principal concern remains fundraising quality within private wealth and credit. Redemption pressure persists at certain retail credit vehicles, although withdrawal requests moderated and BREIT returned to positive net subscriptions. Earnings also remain partly dependent on supportive equity markets and the continued willingness of hyperscalers to fund AI infrastructure at elevated levels. Shares rose 1.4% despite the broader market declining more than 1%, indicating a favourable reaction to the earnings beat. The key variables are realization activity, retail-fund flows, AI infrastructure valuations and base-fee growth. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $110 to $140. Neutral Outlook. 

Blackstone Inc.（BX) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：50.4亿美元，同比增长35.8%，大幅超出预期16.9亿美元 

• 26财年第二季度非公认会计准则每股收益：1.52美元，超出预期0.18美元 

• 26财年第三季度指引：未提供明确指引 

• 股息：宣布季度股息每股1.29美元，将于2026年8月10日支付 

• 短评：本季度表现强劲，经常性收入与业绩提成收入双双超预期。公司深度受益于AI基础设施投资热潮——其十大升值最快的资产中，有九项与AI相关。基础设施基金录得7.2%的季度总升值，退出项目包括数据中心资产及Sabre Industries等，显示其在高增长领域的布局正进入收获期。此外，BREIT（Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust）缓解了此前市场对零售资金外流的担忧。然而，部分零售信贷产品仍面临赎回压力，募资环境尚未全面恢复，尤其在私人财富渠道，仍是潜在风险点。盈利仍部分依赖于股市整体表现和超大规模客户（hyperscalers），若AI资本开支节奏放缓或资产估值回调，可能影响未来业绩兑现。财报后股价逆势上涨1.4%（当日大盘下跌超1%），反映市场对Blackstone在AI时代资产配置能力的认可。但鉴于其盈利波动性及对宏观流动性的敏感性，估值上行空间受限。后续关键变量包括：（1）资产退出与变现活动节奏；（2）零售基金（尤其是BREIT和信贷产品）的资金流是否持续改善；（3）AI相关基础设施资产的估值能否维持高位；（4）基础管理费收入能否随AUM扩张而稳步增长。Blackstone作为全球另类资产管理龙头，在AI驱动的结构性趋势中占据有利位置，但短期仍需平衡募资挑战与市场波动风险。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：110美元至140美元。中性前景。 

Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $20.06B, +10.5% YoY, beat estimates by $730M 

• 2Q26 GAAP EPS: $7.94, beat estimates by $0.74 

• FY26 Guidance: Raised FY26 revenue guidance to $79.75B–$81.75B from $77.5B–$80.0B, EPS guidance to $29.95–$30.65 from $29.35–$30.25, and free-cash-flow guidance to $7.0B–$7.2B from $6.5B–$6.8B.  

• Dividends/Share Buybacks: Declared a quarterly dividend of $3.45 per share 

• Comment: This was a strong beat-and-raise quarter. Missiles and Fire Control revenue increased 19% to $4.10B, driven by PAC-3, THAAD and Precision Strike Missile production ramps. Aeronautics revenue rose 9%, supported by higher F-35 production, while quarterly free cash flow recovered to $2.92B. The principal positive is the improvement in revenue visibility. New orders reached approximately $65B and backlog increased to a record $230.4B, including a multiyear THAAD production contract. This supports sustained growth as the U.S. and allied governments replenish defence inventories and expand missile-production capacity. Shares rose approximately 10.4% following the results, the stock’s strongest session in more than six years. The key variables are missile-production execution, supply-chain capacity, F-35 delivery growth and the risk of additional losses on fixed-price development programmes. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $510 to $650. Positive Outlook. 

洛克希德·马丁公司（LMT) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：200.6亿美元，同比增长10.5%，超出预期7.3亿美元 

• 26财年第二季度公认会计准则每股收益：7.94美元，显著超出预期0.74美元 

• 26财年全年指引全面上调：营收指引提升至797.5亿–817.5亿美元（原为775亿–800亿美元）；EPS指引上调至29.95–30.65美元（原为29.35–30.25美元）；自由现金流指引上调至70亿–72亿美元（原为65亿–68亿美元） 

• 股息：宣布季度股息每股3.45美元 

• 短评：本季度为典型的“超预期+全面上调指引”组合，展现强劲运营执行力与高能见度。导弹与火控业务收入大增19%至41亿美元，受益于PAC-3、THAAD及精确打击导弹（PrSM）量产加速；航空业务增长9%，主要由F-35产量提升驱动；单季自由现金流恢复至29.2亿美元，显示现金转化能力改善。最大亮点在于订单与积压订单创纪录：新订单约650亿美元，积压订单飙升至2304亿美元历史高位，其中包括一项多年期THAAD生产合同，为未来多年收入提供坚实保障。这反映出美国及其盟友正系统性补充国防库存、扩大导弹产能，以应对地缘安全挑战。财报后股价大涨10.4%，创六年多来最强单日表现，市场高度认可其在国防工业中的核心地位与AI/高超音速等下一代技术布局。后续关键变量包括：（1）导弹量产执行效率与供应链保障能力；（2）F-35交付量能否持续爬坡；（3）固定价格研发项目（如新型卫星或武器系统）；（4）国际军售审批与地缘政治对订单节奏的影响。作为全球顶级国防承包商，LMT在大国竞争背景下具备长期结构性优势。当前估值虽已反映乐观预期，但高确定性的 backlog 与现金流支撑使其在波动市场中具防御性与成长性兼具的特质。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：510美元至650美元。积极前景。 

Intel Corp. (INTC) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $16.1B, +24.8% YoY, beat estimates by $1.65B 

• 2Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.42, beat estimates by $0.20 

• 3Q26 Guidance: Expect revenue between $15.8B and $16.8B, compared with analysts’ average estimate of $15.1B. Adjusted profit is expected to be 38 cents per share, compared with analyst estimates of 27 cents. 

• Comment: Intel delivered a significantly stronger-than-expected second quarter, with revenue rising 25% YoY to US$16.13bn, adjusted EPS of US$0.42 and adjusted gross margin of 41.8%, all ahead of consensus, driven by surging demand for data-centre CPUs used in agentic AI workloads and a stronger mix of higher-end client processors. Data Centre and AI revenue reached US$6.26bn, while foundry revenue rose to US$5.77bn as customer interest in Intel’s next-generation 14A manufacturing process increased, including a reported design win with Tesla. Management guided for Q3 revenue of US$15.8bn–16.8bn and adjusted EPS of US$0.38, both above expectations, and raised 2026 capital expenditure plans to US$20bn to expand capacity amid long-term customer commitments. Looking ahead, Intel is positioned to benefit from sustained AI-related CPU demand, improving foundry traction and a potential return to manufacturing leadership through 14A, but the durability of the turnaround will depend on converting customer interest into profitable external foundry volume, improving manufacturing economics and executing its higher capital-spending programme without creating excess capacity or balance-sheet pressure. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $90 to $120. Neutral Outlook. 

英特尔（INTC) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：161亿美元，同比增长24.8%，超出预期16.5亿美元 

• 26财年第二季度非公认会计准则（Non-GAAP）每股收益：0.42美元，超出预期0.20美元 

• 26财年第三季度指引：预计营收在158亿至168亿美元之间，高于分析师151亿美元的平均预期。调整后每股收益预计为0.38美元，高于分析师0.27美元的预期。 

• 短评：英特尔第二季度的业绩表现显著强于预期，在智能体AI（agentic AI）工作负载对数据中心CPU需求激增以及高端客户端处理器组合改善的推动下，营收同比增长25%至161.3亿美元，调整后每股收益为0.42美元，调整后毛利率达到41.8%，均超出市场共识。数据中心和AI营收达到62.6亿美元，而代工营收增长至57.7亿美元，因为客户对英特尔下一代14A制造工艺的兴趣增加，其中包括据报道与特斯拉达成的设计订单。管理层预计第三季度营收为158亿至168亿美元，调整后每股收益为0.38美元，均高于预期，并将2026年资本支出计划提高至200亿美元，以在长期客户承诺的背景下扩大产能。展望未来，英特尔有望从持续的AI相关CPU需求、代工业务吸引力的提升以及通过14A工艺潜在回归制造领先地位中受益，但转型的持久性将取决于能否将客户兴趣转化为盈利的外部代工产能、改善制造经济效益，并在不造成产能过剩或资产负债表压力的情况下执行其更高的资本支出计划。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：90美元至120美元。中性前景。 

Maxlinear Inc. (MXL) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $168.8M, +55.1% YoY, beat estimates by $4.14M 

• 2Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.35, beat estimates by $0.02 

• 3Q26 Guidance: Expect revenue of $210M to $220M and non-GAAP gross margin of 58.5% to 61.5%.  

• FY26 Guidance: Raised its optical data center revenue outlook to $210M to $230M, more than $50M above prior guidance, entirely from Keystone, its 100-gigabit-per-lane PAM4 DSP and SerDes platform. 

• Comment: MaxLinear delivered a strong second quarter, with revenue rising 55% YoY to US$168.8mn and returning to GAAP profitability with EPS of US$0.02, driven by rapid growth in its infrastructure business, which increased 145% YoY to approximately US$85mn and became the company’s largest revenue segment. Momentum was led by high-volume production of its Keystone optical connectivity platform for 400G and 800G data-centre deployments, alongside improving demand across broadband, connectivity and industrial markets. Management raised its 2026 optical data-centre revenue outlook to US$210mn-230mn and guided for Q3 revenue of US$210mn-220mn, with non-GAAP gross margin around 60% at the midpoint and stronger profitability as product mix shifts toward higher-margin infrastructure products. Looking ahead, MaxLinear is well positioned for a multiyear growth cycle as AI and cloud infrastructure spending drives demand for faster, lower-power optical and electrical interconnects, while upcoming products such as Rushmore, Washington, Annapurna and Panther provide additional growth layers from 2027 onward; however, execution on customer ramps, supply availability and the timing of hyperscaler deployments remain key near-term risks. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $70 to $100. Neutral Outlook. 

迈凌科技（MXL) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：1.688亿美元，同比增长55.1%，超出预期414万美元 

• 26财年第二季度非公认会计准则（Non-GAAP）每股收益：0.35美元，超出预期0.02美元 

• 26财年第三季度指引：预计营收在2.1亿至2.2亿美元之间，非公认会计准则毛利率在58.5%至61.5%之间。 

• 26财年全年指引：将其光学数据中心营收预期上调至2.1亿至2.3亿美元，比之前的指引高出5000万美元以上，这完全来自其Keystone平台（100Gbps/通道 PAM4 DSP和SerDes平台）。 

• 短评：迈凌科技第二季度业绩表现强劲，营收同比增长55%至1.688亿美元，并实现公认会计准则（GAAP）盈利，每股收益为0.02美元。这主要得益于其基础设施业务的快速增长，该业务收入同比增长145%至约8500万美元，成为公司最大的营收板块。增长势头主要由其Keystone光连接平台在400G和800G数据中心部署中的大批量生产推动，同时宽带、连接和工业市场的需求也在改善。管理层将2026年光学数据中心营收预期上调至2.1亿至2.3亿美元，并预计第三季度营收为2.1亿至2.2亿美元，中点非公认会计准则毛利率约为60%，随着产品组合向高利润率的基础设施产品转移，盈利能力将进一步增强。展望未来，随着AI和云基础设施支出推动对更快、更低功耗的光学和电气互连的需求，迈凌科技有望迎来多年的增长周期；同时，从2027年起，Rushmore、Washington、Annapurna和Panther等即将推出的产品将提供额外的增长动力。然而，客户产能爬坡的执行情况、供应可用性以及超大规模数据中心部署的时机仍是近期的关键风险。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：70美元至100美元。中性前景。 

Newmont Corporation. (NEM) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $6.12B, +15.0% YoY, miss estimates by $190M 

• 2Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.10, beat estimates by $0.12 

• FY26 Guidance: Expect attributable gold production of 5,260koz, gold by-product CAS of $1,055/oz and gold by-product AISC of $1,680/oz.  

• Comment: Newmont reported a stronger-than-expected second quarter, with adjusted EPS of US$2.10 beating consensus estimates of US$1.99, as a 37% YoY increase in average gold prices more than offset lower production volumes. Average realized gold prices rose to US$4,414/oz from US$3,320/oz a year ago, while gold production declined to 1.29Moz from 1.48Moz due to planned mine sequencing at Ahafo South, Peñasquito and Yanacocha, as well as seismic disruptions at Cadia. The company expects third-quarter production to remain broadly in line with Q2, with Cadia having returned to normal operations by mid-June. Management also continues to advance the Red Chris expansion following key regulatory approvals, while maintaining plans to invest US$1.4bn in development capital during 2026. Newmont is well positioned to benefit from sustained strength in gold prices, supported by its high-quality global asset portfolio, normalization of production at Cadia and a pipeline of long-term growth projects, including Red Chris. While higher sustaining capital expenditure, energy costs and royalty expenses may pressure unit costs in the near term, the company remains focused on disciplined capital allocation and production stability, providing a solid foundation for cash flow generation should favourable gold market conditions persist. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $90 to $110. Neutral Outlook. 

纽蒙特公司（NEM) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：61.2亿美元，同比增长15.0%，低于预期1.9亿美元 

• 26财年第二季度非公认会计准则（Non-GAAP）每股收益：2.10美元，超出预期0.12美元 

• 26财年全年指引：预计归属黄金产量为526万盎司，黄金副产品现金成本（CAS）为1055美元/盎司，黄金副产品全维持成本（AISC）为1680美元/盎司。 

• 短评：纽蒙特公司第二季度业绩表现强于预期，调整后每股收益为2.10美元，超出1.99美元的市场共识预期，这主要得益于平均金价同比上涨37%，完全抵消了产量的下降。平均实际金价从去年的3320美元/盎司上涨至4414美元/盎司，而黄金产量因Ahafo South、Peñasquito和Yanacocha矿区的计划开采顺序，以及Cadia矿区的地震干扰，从148万盎司下降至129万盎司。公司预计第三季度产量将与第二季度基本持平，Cadia矿区已于6月中旬恢复正常运营。管理层还在关键监管批准后继续推进Red Chris矿区的扩建，并计划在2026年投资14亿美元的开发资本。纽蒙特公司有望从金价的持续强势中受益，这得益于其高质量的全球资产组合、Cadia矿区生产的正常化以及包括Red Chris在内的长期增长项目储备。尽管短期内较高的维持性资本支出、能源成本和特许权使用费可能会对单位成本造成压力，但公司仍专注于严格的资本配置和生产稳定性，如果金价市场条件保持有利，这将为现金流生成提供坚实的基础。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：90美元至110美元。中性前景。