Technical Analysis: 23 July 2026

GE Vernova Inc. (GEV) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $11.1B, +22.0% YoY, beat estimates by $330M 

• 2Q26 GAAP EPS: $2.47, miss estimates by $0.71 

• FY26 Guidance: Raised FY26 revenue guidance to $45.5B–$46.5B from $44.5B–$45.5B and free-cash-flow guidance to $11.5B–$12.5B from $6.5B–$7.5B. Adjusted EBITDA margin guidance remained unchanged at 12%–14%. Power organic growth guidance increased to 18%–20%, while Wind is expected to record approximately $400M of EBITDA losses. 

• Dividends/Share Buybacks: Paid a quarterly dividend of $0.50 per share. Repurchased approximately 2.5M shares for $2.3B during 2Q26, taking year-to-date repurchases to 4.3M shares at an average price of $854. 

• Comment: The underlying demand indicators were exceptional. Orders increased 88% organically to $24.2B, lifting backlog to $176B. Power orders rose 134% organically, Electrification orders increased 66%, and data-centre-related orders exceeded $5B year to date. This provides strong multi-year visibility for gas turbines, grid equipment and services. The earnings miss was concentrated in Wind, where revenue declined 10%, orders fell approximately 40% organically and segment EBITDA losses widened to $275M. Higher offshore project costs and weak onshore volumes offset strong margin expansion in Power and Electrification. The unchanged group margin guidance also disappointed investors expecting another EBITDA-margin upgrade. Shares fell approximately 8.5% despite the raised revenue and cash-flow outlook. The principal variables are gas-turbine capacity execution, backlog conversion, Electrification margins and containment of offshore-wind losses. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $900 to $1300. Positive Outlook. 

 

GE Vernova Inc.（GEV) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：111亿美元，同比增长22.0%，超出预期3.3亿美元 

• 26财年第二季度公认会计准则每股收益：2.47美元，低于预期0.71美元 

• 26财年全年指引更新：营收指引上调至455亿–465亿美元（原为445亿–455亿）；自由现金流指引大幅上调至115亿–125亿美元（原为65亿–75亿）；调整后EBITDA利润率指引维持12%–14%不变；电力业务有机增长指引提升至18%–20%；风电业务预计全年EBITDA亏损约4亿美元 

• 股息与回购：季度股息0.50美元/股；Q2回购250万股（耗资23亿美元），年初至今共回购430万股（均价854美元） 

• 短评：本季度呈现“需求极强、盈利承压”的鲜明分化。订单表现惊艳：有机订单同比大增88%至242亿美元，积压订单（backlog）飙升至1760亿美元。其中，电力业务订单暴增134%，电气化订单增长66%，数据中心相关订单已超50亿美元，为燃气轮机、电网设备及服务提供多年高能见度。然而，盈利显著不及预期，主因风电业务持续拖累：营收下滑10%，订单有机下降约40%，EBITDA亏损扩大至2.75亿美元，主要受海上风电项目成本超支与陆上风电需求疲软影响。尽管电力与电气化板块利润率强劲扩张，仍无法抵消风电亏损。更令市场失望的是，公司未上调整体EBITDA利润率指引（维持12%–14%），打破投资者对进一步盈利升级的期待。尽管自由现金流指引翻倍式上调，股价仍下跌约8.5%，反映市场对风电风险敞口和利润率停滞的担忧。后续关键变量包括：（1）燃气轮机产能爬坡与交付执行能力；（2）1760亿美元 backlog 向收入与现金流的转化效率；（3）电气化业务能否维持高利润率；（4）海上风电亏损是否可控，或需进一步计提。GE Vernova作为能源转型核心受益者，在电力与电网领域占据战略高地，长期前景光明。但短期风电包袱和利润率瓶颈限制估值弹性。若风电风险逐步出清，叠加强劲现金流兑现，有望重获重估。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：900美元至1300美元。积极前景。 

 

AT&T Inc. (T) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $31.56B, +2.3% YoY, miss estimates by $250M 

• 2Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.65, beat estimates by $0.06 

• FY26 Guidance: Reaffirmed FY26 adjusted EPS of $2.25–$2.35, adjusted EBITDA growth of 3%–4%, capital investment of $23B–$24B and free cash flow above $18B. Management continues to target at least 5% Advanced Connectivity service-revenue growth and at least 6% segment EBITDA growth in FY26. 

• Dividends/Share Buybacks: Maintained the quarterly dividend at $0.2775 per share, equivalent to $1.11 annually. AT&T accelerated its FY26 repurchase plan to approximately $10B and reiterated plans to return more than $45B through dividends and buybacks during 2026–2028 

• Comment: This was a strong operating quarter despite the modest revenue miss. AT&T added 432,000 postpaid phone customers, ahead of expectations of approximately 338,500, alongside 367,000 fiber and 279,000 fixed-wireless additions. Advanced Connectivity EBITDA increased 8%, with margin expanding approximately 150 bps. Free cash flow increased to $4.7B, supporting the accelerated buyback, while the 42.5% convergence rate between advanced home internet and wireless indicates improving customer economics. The main constraints remain $126.4B of net debt and the rapid decline of the legacy copper business, where revenue fell 25.9%. Shares rose approximately 3.6% following the results. The principal variables are fiber-build execution, wireless churn, integration of the acquired Lumen fiber assets and progress toward reducing leverage after the EchoStar transaction. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $20 to $28. Neutral Outlook. 

 

AT&T Inc.（T) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：315.6亿美元，同比增长2.3%，略低于预期2.5亿美元 

• 26财年第二季度非公认会计准则每股收益：0.65美元，超出预期0.06美元 

• 26财年全年指引：重申调整后EPS为2.25–2.35美元、调整后EBITDA增长3%–4%、资本开支230亿–240亿美元、自由现金流超180亿美元；目标Advanced Connectivity服务收入增长≥5%、分部EBITDA增长≥6% 

• 股息与回购：维持季度股息0.2775美元/股（年化1.11美元）；将26财年股票回购计划加速至约100亿美元；重申2026–2028年通过分红与回购返还股东超450亿美元 

• 短评：本季度运营表现强劲，尽管营收小幅不及预期，但核心增长指标全面超预期。新增后付费手机用户43.2万（远超预期33.85万），光纤宽带净增36.7万，固定无线接入（FWA），显示其“融合战略”（无线+家庭宽带）正有效提升客户粘性与ARPU。Advanced Connectivity板块EBITDA增长8%，利润率扩大150个基点，自由现金流达47亿美元，支撑回购加速。值得注意的是，先进家庭互联网与无线服务的融合率达42.5%，表明交叉销售正在改善客户经济模型。然而，传统铜缆业务收入同比暴跌25.9%，持续拖累整体营收增长；同时，净债务高达1264亿美元，虽有望通过EchoStar交易及资产优化逐步降杠杆，但仍是长期关注点。财报后股价上涨约3.6%，反映市场更看重高质量用户增长与现金流生成能力，而非短期营收波动。后续关键变量包括：（1）光纤网络建设进度与用户转化效率；（2）无线用户流失率（churn）；（3）Lumen收购光纤资产的整合成效；（4）EchoStar交易后资产负债表去杠杆节奏。AT&T正成功从传统电信运营商转型为以光纤和5G为核心的“连接+内容”平台，基本面趋势向好，但高负债与传统业务萎缩限制估值弹性。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：20美元至28美元。中性前景。 

 

Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $11.19B, +10.4% YoY, beat estimates by $550M 

• 2Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.20, beat estimates by $0.15 

• FY26 Guidance: FY26 adjusted EPS was revised to $8.26–$8.41 from $8.31–$8.46 because of currency movements. Currency-neutral adjusted EPS growth remains 7.5%–9.5%, while organic revenue growth is guided at 5%–7%. 

• Dividends/Share Buybacks: Maintained the quarterly dividend at $1.47 per share, equivalent to $5.88 annually. Management expects no share repurchases during FY26 as it prioritises deleveraging toward approximately 2.0x net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA. 

• Comment: This was a strong and broad-based quarter. International smoke-free revenue increased 14.2%, IQOS shipment volumes rose 7.6%, and combustible volumes proved substantially more resilient than expected, with cigarette shipments increasing 1.1%. Strong pricing and mix drove operating-income growth of 22%. The main concern is competitive pressure in U.S. nicotine pouches. ZYN shipments grew only about 2% to 2.9B pouches, prompting increased spending on marketing, distribution and new product variants. This could constrain near-term U.S. margins, although the expanded ZYN portfolio and reduced-risk marketing authorisation remain supportive longer term. Shares rose 3.3% after the results, having gained as much as approximately 5% intraday. The principal variables are ZYN market-share performance, IQOS growth after price increases in Japan, combustible-volume resilience and progress on debt reduction. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $170 to $220. Neutral Outlook. 

 

Philip Morris International Inc.（PM) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：111.9亿美元，同比增长10.4%，超出预期5.5亿美元 

• 26财年第二季度非公认会计准则每股收益：2.20美元，超出预期0.15美元 

• 26财年全年指引调整：调整后EPS下调至8.26–8.41美元（原为8.31–8.46美元），主因汇率不利变动；剔除汇率影响的EPS增长仍维持7.5%–9.5%；有机收入增长指引为5%–7% 

• 股息与回购：维持季度股息1.47美元/股（年化5.88美元）；26财年暂不进行股票回购，优先将自由现金流用于去杠杆，目标净债务/调整后EBITDA降至约2.0倍 

• 短评：本季度表现强劲且全面超预期。国际无烟产品收入增长14.2%，IQOS出货量上升7.6%，尤为亮眼的是传统可燃烟草出货量同比微增1.1%，远好于市场预期的持续下滑，显示其在部分新兴市场仍具韧性。强劲定价策略与高端产品组合推动营业利润增长22%，盈利质量优异。然而，美国尼古丁袋市场面临竞争压力：ZYN出货量仅增长约2%至29亿袋，增速显著放缓，迫使公司加大营销投入、拓展分销渠道并推出新品，短期内可能压制美国业务利润率。尽管长期来看，ZYN产品线扩展及FDA授予的“减害”营销授权仍具战略价值，但执行成效需观察。财报后股价上涨3.3%（盘中一度涨近5%），反映投资者对核心国际业务稳健性和转型进展的认可。后续关键变量包括：（1）ZYN在美国市场的份额能否稳住或提升；（2）日本等关键市场IQOS在提价后的用户留存与增长；（3）传统卷烟销量是否继续展现韧性；（4）去杠杆进程是否按计划推进，支撑未来恢复回购。PMI正处于从传统烟草向无烟未来的战略转型期，基本面稳固、现金流强劲、股息可靠。但短期受汇率与美国新业务竞争拖累，估值上行空间受限。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：170美元至220美元。中性前景。 
   

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $28.24B, +25.6% YoY, miss estimates by $1.75B 

• 2Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.33, miss estimates by $0.21 

• FY26 Guidance: Management expects FY26 capital expenditure to exceed $25B and to continue increasing over the next two to three years as it expands AI compute, robotaxi infrastructure, Cybercab, Tesla Semi and Optimus capacity. 

• Comment: The quarter showed a clear divergence between volume and profitability. Record deliveries and strong energy-storage deployments lifted revenue above expectations, but lower vehicle pricing, reduced regulatory-credit revenue and substantially higher R&D spending compressed earnings. Automotive gross margin was 16.3%, below expectations of approximately 18.0%. The principal concern is cash conversion. Capital expenditure reached $5.8B and free cash flow turned negative by $1.1B, despite the strong delivery quarter. Tesla is effectively using cash generated by its automotive and energy businesses to fund a multi-year AI, autonomy and robotics buildout whose commercial returns remain difficult to forecast. Shares fell approximately 4.1% after hours. The key variables are automotive-margin stabilization, robotaxi monetisation, FSD subscription growth, energy-storage profitability and the duration of elevated capital expenditure. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $320 to $415. Neutral Outlook. 

 

特斯拉公司（TSLA)  

• 26财年第二季度营收：282.4亿美元，同比增长25.6%，低于预期17.5亿美元 

• 26财年第二季度非公认会计准则每股收益：0.33美元，低于预期0.21美元 

• 26财年全年指引：资本开支将超过250亿美元，并计划在未来两到三年持续增加，重点投向AI算力、Robotaxi基础设施、Cybercab、Semi电动卡车及Optimus人形机器人产能建设 

• 短评：本季度呈现“销量创新高，盈利承压”的显著分化。尽管实现创纪录的汽车交付量和强劲的储能部署（Megapack需求旺盛），但单车售价下调、监管积分收入减少及研发支出激增共同挤压利润。汽车业务毛利率仅为16.3%，明显低于市场预期的约18.0%，反映价格战对盈利能力的持续冲击。更值得警惕的是现金流恶化：Q2资本开支高达58亿美元，导致自由现金流为负11亿美元——这是近年来罕见的负值，即便在交付旺季亦未能转正。特斯拉正将汽车与能源业务产生的现金，大规模再投资于AI、自动驾驶和机器人等长期项目，但这些领域的商业化路径与回报周期仍高度不确定。财报后股价盘后下跌约4.1%，反映投资者对“增长靠烧钱、盈利难兑现”模式的担忧加剧。市场开始质疑：在竞争加剧、需求边际放缓的背景下，如此高强度的资本支出是否可持续？后续关键变量包括：（1）汽车毛利率能否企稳回升（尤其FSD订阅提升ASP）；（2）完全自动驾驶（FSD）；（3）Robotaxi或Cybercab能否在2027年前实现有意义的收入贡献；（4）储能业务能否从规模效应中实现更高利润率；（5）资本开支高峰何时见顶。特斯拉仍具备技术领先优势与品牌护城河，但当前估值已隐含极高增长预期。若AI与机器人叙事无法在12–18个月内转化为可验证的收入或盈利拐点，股价或面临进一步压力。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：320美元至415美元。中性前景。 

 

Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $119.8B, +24.2% YoY, beat estimates by $2.82B 

• 2Q26 GAAP EPS: $9.11, beat estimates by $6.22 

• FY26 Guidance: FY26 capital-expenditure guidance was raised to $195B–$205B from $180B–$190B, with management continuing to expect another significant increase in 2027 as AI infrastructure demand exceeds available capacity. 

• Dividend/Share Buybacks: Declared a quarterly common dividend of $0.22 per share. Alphabet conducted no share repurchases during 2Q26, compared with $13.24B a year ago, while raising $49.6B through equity issuance to fund AI infrastructure and other corporate purposes. 

• Comment: The underlying operating quarter was strong. Search revenue increased 17%, YouTube advertising rose 13%, and Cloud operating income more than tripled to $8.81B. Consolidated operating income increased 30%, with operating margin expanding 200 bps to 34%, demonstrating that AI monetisation is supporting both growth and operating leverage. The central concern is capital intensity. Quarterly capex doubled to $44.92B and free cash flow turned negative at $5.86B, while the latest spending increase implies that capacity expansion will remain ahead of cash generation. The equity issuance and suspension of buybacks also represent a meaningful change from Alphabet’s previous capital-return profile. Shares initially declined approximately 3% after hours following the higher capex guidance. The principal variables are Cloud growth sustainability, returns on AI infrastructure, Gemini competitiveness, Search monetisation and the recovery of free cash flow. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $320 to $400. Positive Outlook. 

 

Alphabet Inc.（GOOG) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：1198亿美元，同比增长24.2%，超出预期28.2亿美元 

• 26财年第二季度公认会计准则每股收益：9.11美元，大幅超出预期6.22美元 

• 26财年资本开支指引上调：全年资本支出提升至1950亿–2050亿美元（原为1800亿–1900亿），并预计2027年将继续显著增加，主因AI基础设施需求远超现有产能 

• 股息与回购：宣布季度股息每股0.22美元；Q2未进行股票回购（去年同期回购132.4亿美元）；通过股权融资募集496亿美元，用于AI基建及其他企业用途 

• 短评：本季度核心运营表现极为强劲。搜索广告收入增长17%，YouTube广告增长13%，云业务营业利润同比激增逾三倍至88.1亿美元，推动整体营业利润增长30%，营业利润率扩大200个基点至34%。这清晰表明，AI不仅驱动增长，更正在转化为真实的运营杠杆和盈利能力——尤其在云与搜索中通过Gemini模型提升广告与服务效率。然而，市场焦点迅速转向资本强度风险：Q2资本开支高达449.2亿美元（同比翻倍），导致自由现金流为负58.6亿美元；公司罕见地暂停回购并大规模发行新股融资，标志其资本配置策略从“股东回报”转向“战略投资优先”；管理层明确表示，未来数年仍将“先建产能、后收现金”，意味着自由现金流可能持续承压。财报后股价盘后一度下跌约3%，反映投资者对“盈利强但烧钱更快”的矛盾心态。尽管基本面健康，但Alphabet正进入一个高投入、高不确定性的AI扩张阶段。后续关键变量包括：（1）云业务能否维持高增长与利润率双升；（2）AI基础设施投资的回报周期与ROIC水平；（3）Gemini在搜索、办公及开发者生态中的竞争力；（4）搜索广告在AI整合下的长期变现效率；（5）自由现金流何时恢复正值并支撑重启回购。Alphabet仍是全球AI浪潮中最确定的受益者之一，拥有强大现金流基础与技术护城河。但短期估值需消化更高的资本支出与更低的资本返还。若AI商业化进展顺利，当前投入将奠定长期领导地位。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：320美元至400美元。积极前景。 

 

ServiceNow Inc. (NOW) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $3.98B, +23.6% YoY, beat estimates by $50M 

• 2Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.90, beat estimates by $0.04 

• 3Q26 Guidance: Expect subscription revenue of $3.975B to $3.980B came in below the average estimate of about $4B. 

• FY26 Guidance: Expects subscription revenue of $15.760B to $15.780B, up from its earlier projection of $15.735B to $15.775B.  

• Comment: ServiceNow delivered a strong second quarter, with subscription revenue rising to US$3.88bn and adjusted EPS reaching US$0.90, both ahead of expectations, driven by growing adoption of its AI-powered workflow automation platform. The company’s AI offerings surpassed US$1bn in annual contract value, supported by broad uptake across enterprise and public-sector customers, while current remaining performance obligations increased 21% YoY to US$13.2bn, providing strong revenue visibility. Management raised its FY2026 subscription revenue guidance to US$15.76bn-15.78bn, although its third-quarter outlook was slightly below consensus partly because some federal on-premises revenue was recognized earlier than expected. Looking ahead, ServiceNow is well positioned to benefit from rising enterprise demand for AI agents, automated workflows and cross-department productivity tools, supported by its expanding product portfolio and acquisitions such as Moveworks and Armis; however, investors will continue to monitor whether greater spending on AI infrastructure affects software budgets and whether near-term sales momentum remains strong enough to offset concerns over increasing competition from newer AI platforms. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $90 to $110. Neutral Outlook. 

 

ServiceNow公司（NOW)  

• 26财年第二季度营收：39.8亿美元，同比增长23.6%，超出预期5000万美元 

• 26财年第二季度非公认会计准则每股收益：0.90美元，超出预期0.04美元 

• 26财年第三季度指引：预计订阅收入为39.75亿至39.80亿美元，略低于约40亿美元的市场平均预期。 

• 26财年全年指引：预计订阅收入为157.60亿至157.80亿美元，高于此前预测的157.35亿至157.75亿美元。 

• 短评：本季度业绩表现强劲，在AI驱动的工作流自动化平台采用率不断增长的推动下，订阅收入增至38.8亿美元，调整后每股收益达0.90美元，双双超出预期。该公司的AI产品年度合同价值已突破10亿美元，得益于企业级和公共部门客户的广泛采用；同时，当前剩余履约义务同比增长21%至132亿美元，提供了强劲的收入可见性。管理层将26财年全年订阅收入指引上调至157.6亿-157.8亿美元，尽管其第三季度展望略低于市场共识，部分原因是一些联邦本地部署收入比预期更早确认。展望未来，ServiceNow有望受益于企业对AI代理、自动化工作流和跨部门生产力工具需求的上升，这得益于其不断扩大的产品组合以及对Moveworks和Armis等公司的收购；然而，投资者将继续关注对AI基础设施的更大支出是否会影响软件预算，以及近期的销售势头是否足够强劲，以抵消来自新兴AI平台竞争加剧的担忧。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：90美元至110美元。中性前景。 

 

IBM Common Stock. (IBM) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $17.2B, +1.2% YoY, miss estimates by $60M 

• 2Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.93, in-line with estimates 

• FY26 Guidance: Lowered revenue growth to between 4%-5%, down from its previous expectations of more than 5% growth. The midpoint of the forecast is below analysts’ average estimate of a 4.8% rise to $70.77B in revenue.  

• Comment: IBM reported a weaker-than-expected second quarter, with revenue rising just 1% YoY to US$17.16bn and adjusted EPS of US$2.93, both below consensus, as customers redirected capital spending toward AI-focused data-centre infrastructure and delayed several large mainframe and software-related deals. Infrastructure revenue fell 7% to US$3.84bn as IBM Z mainframe revenue declined 42%, while software revenue grew 5% to US$7.76bn but also missed expectations. Management lowered its FY2026 revenue growth outlook to 4%-5% from above 5%, although it emphasized that demand has largely been deferred rather than lost, with around one-third of delayed deals already closing in the third quarter and no evidence of customers structurally moving away from mainframes. Looking ahead, IBM’s recovery will depend on converting its delayed deal pipeline, sustaining growth in software and AI-related offerings, and demonstrating that near-term AI hardware spending is complementary to, rather than a substitute for, its broader hybrid cloud and mainframe ecosystem; however, continued weakness in large enterprise capital expenditure and execution slippage remain key near-term risks. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $180 to $250. Neutral Outlook. 

 

IBM公司（IBM) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：172.0亿美元，同比增长1.2%，低于预期6000万美元 

• 26财年第二季度非公认会计准则每股收益：2.93美元，符合预期 

• 26财年全年指引：将营收增速预期下调至4%-5%，低于此前超过5%的增长预期。该预测中值低于分析师平均预期的4.8%增长（即707.7亿美元营收）。 

• 短评：IBM第二季度业绩表现不及预期，营收同比仅增长1%至171.6亿美元，调整后每股收益为2.93美元，双双低于市场共识，原因是客户将资本支出转向以AI为中心的数据中心基础设施，并推迟了数笔大型机和相关软件交易。基础设施营收下降7%至38.4亿美元，其中IBM Z大型机营收大幅下滑42%；软件营收增长5%至77.6亿美元，但也未达预期。管理层将26财年全年营收增长预期从5%以上下调至4%-5%，尽管其强调需求主要是被推迟而非流失，约三分之一的延期交易已在第三季度完成，且没有证据表明客户正在结构性地远离大型机。展望未来，IBM的复苏将取决于能否转化其延期的交易储备、维持软件和AI相关产品的增长，并证明近期的AI硬件支出是对其更广泛的混合云和大型机生态系统的补充，而非替代；然而，大型企业资本支出的持续疲软和执行层面的延误仍是近期的关键风险。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：180美元至250美元。中性前景。 

 

Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $5.46B, +22.7% YoY, beat estimates by $220M 

• 2Q26 GAAP EPS: $2.14, beat estimates by $0.20 

• 3Q26 Guidance: Expect revenue to be between $5.65B and $6.15B, ahead of the estimate of $5.61B.  

• Comment: Texas Instruments reported a strong second quarter, with revenue rising 23% YoY to US$5.46bn, exceeding consensus estimates of US$5.25bn, driven by broad-based strength across its industrial, automotive and data centre end markets. The company also issued third-quarter revenue guidance of US$5.65-6.15bn, above Wall Street expectations, reflecting improving demand for its analog semiconductor portfolio. While it does not manufacture high-performance AI accelerators, it continues to benefit from accelerating AI infrastructure investment through increased demand for analog chips that enable power management and signal conversion, alongside an ongoing recovery in industrial and automotive applications. Texas Instruments is well-positioned to benefit from continued investment in AI infrastructure, the recovery in industrial and automotive markets, and the growing adoption of edge AI applications, all of which are expected to support sustained demand for analog semiconductors. Its broad product portfolio and exposure to long-duration industrial and automotive customers should provide resilient growth as semiconductor demand normalises. However, near-term performance remains dependent on the pace of the cyclical recovery across key end markets and broader macroeconomic conditions that could influence customer inventory replenishment and capital spending. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $260 to $300. Neutral Outlook. 

 

德州仪器（TXN) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：54.6亿美元，同比增长22.7%，超出预期2.2亿美元 

• 26财年第二季度公认会计准则每股收益：2.14美元，超出预期0.20美元 

• 26财年第三季度指引：预计营收在56.5亿至61.5亿美元之间，高于56.1亿美元的预期 

• 短评：德州仪器第二季度业绩表现强劲，在工业、汽车和数据中心终端市场的全面强劲表现推动下，营收同比增长23%至54.6亿美元，超出52.5亿美元的市场共识预期。公司还发布了56.5亿-61.5亿美元的第三季度营收指引，高于华尔街预期，反映出对其模拟半导体产品组合的需求正在改善。尽管该公司不制造高性能AI加速器，但它继续通过电源管理和信号转换模拟芯片需求的增加，以及工业和汽车应用的持续复苏，从加速的AI基础设施投资中受益。展望未来，德州仪器有望从AI基础设施的持续投资、工业和汽车市场的复苏以及边缘AI应用普及率的提升中受益，所有这些因素预计都将支撑对模拟半导体的持续需求。其广泛的产品组合以及对长周期工业和汽车客户的覆盖，将在半导体需求正常化时提供具韧性的增长。然而，近期业绩仍取决于关键终端市场周期性复苏的步伐，以及可能影响客户库存补充和资本支出的更广泛的宏观经济状况。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：260美元至300美元。中性前景。