Technical Analysis – 22 June 2026

The Kroger Co. (KR)
• 1Q26 Revenue: $46.12B, +2.2% YoY, beat estimates by $590M
• 1Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.58, miss estimates by $0.01
• FY26 Guidance: Reaffirmed FY26 guidance for identical sales without fuel growth of 1.0% to 2.0%, adjusted FIFO operating profit of $5.0B to $5.2B, adjusted EPS of $5.10 to $5.30, and free cash flow of $2.7B to $2.9B.
• Dividends: Kroger expects to continue paying its quarterly dividend, and management said the company expects to complete its existing $2B repurchase authorization by the end of fiscal 2026.
• Comment: This was a mixed quarter. Revenue beat and adjusted operating profit rose to $1.41B from $1.32B a year ago, but identical sales without fuel increased only 1.0%, and adjusted EPS came in just under consensus. Digital sales remained a clear positive, rising 15%, which suggests e-commerce execution is still helping support the top line. The main issue is margin pressure. Gross margin declined to 22.7% from 23.0% a year ago as higher freight and fuel costs, longer store hours, training, and other operating investments outpaced sales growth. Management was explicit that costs are rising faster than sales, and that dynamic appears to be the main reason the stock sold off after results despite the revenue beat and unchanged full-year outlook. The principal variables to monitor are whether identical sales can move above the low end of the 1% to 2% range, whether cost actions are enough to stabilize margin, and whether consumer trade-down behavior intensifies further in the second half. 2Q26 recommended trading range: $50 to $60. Neutral Outlook.

The Kroger Co.（KR)

• 26财年第一季度营收：461.2亿美元，同比增长2.2%，超出预期5.9亿美元
• 26财年第一季度非公认会计准则每股收益：1.58美元，略低于预期0.01美元
• 26财年全年指引：重申全年同店销售（不含燃油）；调整后FIFO营业利润50亿–52亿美元；调整后EPS 5.10–5.30美元；自由现金流27亿–29亿美元
• 股息与回购：维持季度股息；预计在26财年末前完成现有的20亿美元股票回购计划
• 短评：本季度表现混合。营收超预期，调整后营业利润从去年同期的13.2亿美元提升至14.1亿美元，电商销售同比增长15%，显示数字化战略持续贡献增长动能。然而，同店销售（不含燃油），且调整后EPS小幅不及预期，反映盈利承压。核心问题在于成本增速快于收入：毛利率从23.0%下滑至22.7%，主因运费与燃油成本上升、门店延长营业时间、员工培训及其他运营投资增加。管理层明确指出“成本增长跑赢销售”，成为财报后股价下跌的主因——尽管全年指引未变，但投资者担忧短期利润率压力。后续关键变量包括：（1）同店销售能否从当前1%的低位向全年指引区间上沿（2%）靠拢；（2）公司能否通过成本优化措施稳定甚至改善毛利率；（3）若宏观环境恶化，消费者“降级消费”（tradedown）趋势是否进一步强化，利好Kroger的性价比定位。作为美国最大超市运营商，Kroger在通胀环境中具备一定防御性，但需证明其能在控制成本的同时维持客流与份额增长。26财年第二季度建议交易区间：50美元至60美元。中性前景。

Accenture plc (ACN)
• 3Q26 Revenue: $18.7B, +5.6% YoY, miss estimates by $50M
• 3Q26 GAAP EPS: $3.80, beat estimates by $0.11
• FY26 Guidance: Lowered FY26 local-currency revenue growth guidance to 3% to 4% from 3% to 5%. Adjusted EPS guidance is $13.78 to $13.90, and adjusted operating margin is expected to expand 20 bps YoY to 15.8%.
• Dividends: Accenture raised its quarterly cash dividend 10% to $1.63 per share and said it expects to return at least $9.5B to shareholders in FY26. Year-to-date shareholder returns were $8.2B.
• Comment: This was a mixed quarter. EPS was solid and revenue still grew, but bookings fell 3% in local currency to $19.32B, with consulting bookings at $10.26B and managed services bookings at $9.06B. That matters more than the EPS beat because it suggests demand is not improving cleanly, especially in the more discretionary parts of the business. The key issue is weaker forward momentum. Management cut the top end of full-year revenue growth guidance and pointed to slower client decision-making, federal weakness, and broader macro pressure. Consulting softness appears to be the main drag, while investors are also questioning whether AI is shifting spend away from traditional services faster than Accenture can offset with new AI-led work. The stock reaction was severe, with shares falling about 18% on the day. The principal variables to monitor are bookings recovery, consulting demand stabilization, conversion of large AI programs into recognized revenue, and whether acquisition spending begins to improve growth quality rather than just defend share. 4Q26 recommended trading range: $50 to $60. Neutral Outlook.

Accenture plc（ACN)

• 26财年第三季度营收：187亿美元，同比增长5.6%，略低于预期5000万美元
• 26财年第三季度公认会计准则每股收益：3.80美元，超出预期0.11美元
• 26财年全年指引：下调全年本地货币营收增速至3%–4%（原为3%–5%）；调整后EPS指引13.78–13.90美元；预计调整后运营利润率同比扩大20个基点至15.8%
• 股息与资本返还：季度现金股息上调10%至每股1.63美元；预计26财年向股东返还至少95亿美元（年初至今已返还82亿美元）
• 短评：本季度表现混合。尽管盈利稳健、营收仍实现增长，但新订单（bookings）—同比下降3%至193.2亿美元，其中咨询业务订单102.6亿美元，托管服务90.6亿美元。在专业服务行业，bookings是领先指标，其疲软暗示客户需求未见明显改善，尤其在高可选性的咨询板块。管理层明确指出客户决策周期延长、美国联邦政府支出疲弱及宏观不确定性加剧，导致全年营收指引上限被砍。更深层担忧在于：AI是否正加速替代传统IT服务支出，而Accenture虽积极布局AI解决方案，但尚未完全对冲结构性转变带来的冲击。财报发布当日股价暴跌约18%，反映市场对增长动能放缓的深度忧虑。尽管公司维持强劲现金流和高额股东回报（股息+回购），但投资者更关注增长质量而非资本返还。后续关键变量包括：（1）bookings能否在Q4企稳回升；（2）咨询需求是否触底；（3）大型AI转型项目能否从签约转化为确认收入；（4）并购策略（如收购AI或云原生公司）是否有效提升增长内涵，而非仅用于防御性保份额。26财年第四季度建议交易区间：50美元至60美元。中性前景。