Technical Analysis: 22 July 2026

Halliburton Company (HAL) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $5.71B, +3.7% YoY, beat estimates by $210M 

• 2Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.55, beat estimates by $0.01 

• 3Q26 Guidance: For 3Q26, Completion and Production revenue is expected to be flat to down 2% sequentially, while Drilling and Evaluation revenue is expected to decline 3%–5%. 

• Dividends/Share Buybacks: Maintained its quarterly dividend at $0.17 per share. The latest declared dividend was paid on June 24, 2026. 

• Comment: The reported quarter was modestly positive. Revenue and adjusted EPS exceeded expectations, while Latin America and Europe/Africa delivered growth. North American revenue was broadly stable, indicating that activity has not deteriorated further despite cautious upstream spending. The weakness was concentrated in the forward outlook. Middle East and Asia revenue declined 10% YoY as reduced activity in Kuwait, Iraq and Qatar weighed on results, while management’s sequential 3Q revenue guidance implies renewed pressure across both operating segments. This reduces confidence that international growth can offset subdued North American activity in the near term. Shares fell approximately 5%–6% after results despite the earnings beat. The principal variables are Middle East activity normalization, North American pricing and completion volumes, international margin resilience, and oil-price stability. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $28 to $40. Neutral Outlook. 

 

哈里伯顿公司（HAL) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：57.1亿美元，同比增长3.7%，超出预期2.1亿美元 

• 26财年第二季度非公认会计准则每股收益：0.55美元，小幅超出预期0.01美元 

• 26财年第三季度指引：完井与生产业务（Completion and Production）；钻井与评估业务（Drilling and Evaluation） 

• 股息：维持季度股息每股0.17美元，最新一期已于2026年6月24日支付 

• 短评：本季度表现温和向好。营收与盈利略超预期，拉丁美洲及欧洲/非洲地区实现增长，北美市场收入基本持平，显示尽管上游资本开支谨慎，但活动水平已企稳，未进一步恶化。然而，市场焦点集中在疲软的前瞻指引：中东和亚洲地区Q2收入同比下滑10%，主因科威特、伊拉克和卡塔尔项目活动减少；而Q3环比指引预示两大业务板块均将承压，削弱了投资者对“国际增长可对冲北美疲软”的信心。财报后股价下跌5%–6%，反映市场更担忧短期动能减弱，而非当季小幅超预期。后续关键变量包括：（1）中东地区作业活动能否恢复（尤其受地缘政治与国家石油公司预算影响）；（2）北美完井量与定价是否在油价支撑下企稳回升；（3）国际业务利润率能否在收入波动中保持韧性；（4）布伦特原油价格是否维持在当前支撑勘探开发投资的区间（约70–85美元/桶）。哈里伯顿作为油服龙头，具备成本纪律与技术优势，但在全球上游支出结构性分化背景下，增长能见度受限。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：28美元至40美元。中性前景。 

 

Vicor Corporation (VICR) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $143.4M, +49.3% YoY, beat estimates by $5.02M 

• 2Q26 GAAP EPS: $1.04, beat estimates by $0.40 

• 3Q26 Guidance: Management expects approximately 10% sequential revenue growth in 3Q26, implying roughly $158M. 

• Comment: This was a strong underlying quarter. Product demand accelerated across high-performance computing, automatic test equipment, industrial and aerospace-and-defence applications, while royalty revenue provided a highly accretive contribution. Gross margin expanded 280 bps sequentially to 58.0%, and operating cash flow recovered to $34.0M. The principal positive is backlog visibility. The $380M backlog and book-to-bill ratio above one support continued sequential growth, while Vicor’s second-generation vertical power-delivery architecture provides direct exposure to rising power-density requirements in GPUs, TPUs and wafer-scale processors. However, the first ChiP fab is approaching full utilisation, making execution of the planned second fab increasingly important. Shares fell approximately 7.3% despite the earnings beat, reflecting substantial pre-results appreciation and a valuation of roughly 72x trailing earnings. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $180 to $250. Neutral Outlook. 

 

Vicor Corporation（VICR) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：1.434亿美元，同比增长49.3%，超出预期502万美元 

• 26财年第二季度公认会计准则每股收益：1.04美元，显著超出预期0.40美元 

• 26财年第三季度指引：预计营收环比增长约10%，即约1.58亿美元 

• 短评：本季度基本面表现强劲。需求在高性能计算（HPC）等多个终端市场全面加速，叠加高利润率的专利授权收入（royalty revenue）贡献，推动毛利率环比大幅提升280个基点至58.0%。经营性现金流恢复至3400万美元，显示盈利质量改善。尤为关键的是，公司积压订单（backlog）高达3.8亿美元，且订单出货比（book-to-bill），为连续增长提供高能见度。Vicor的核心技术优势在于其第二代垂直供电架构（Vertical Power Delivery），直接契合AI芯片（如GPU、TPU）及晶圆级处理器对更高功率密度与更低能耗的迫切需求，使其成为AI基础设施电源链中的稀缺供应商。然而，股价盘后下跌约7.3%，主因在于：财报前股价已大幅上涨，估值处于高位（约72倍滚动市盈率）；市场担忧首座ChiP晶圆厂接近满产，若第二座工厂建设或爬坡延迟，可能制约未来交付能力与增长兑现。后续关键变量包括：（1）第二座ChiP工厂的资本开支与投产进度；（2）AI客户对高密度电源模块的采用节奏；（3）授权收入的持续性与新协议签署；（4）毛利率能否在规模扩张中维持高位。尽管短期估值承压，Vicor在AI供电领域的技术卡位极具战略价值。若产能扩张顺利，有望持续受益于算力基础设施升级浪潮。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：180美元至250美元。中性前景。 

 

D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: $9.23B, +0% YoY, beat estimates by $60M 

• 3Q26 GAAP EPS: $3.20, beat estimates by $0.21 

• FY26 Guidance: Reduced FY26 consolidated revenue guidance to $32.5B–$33.0B from $33.5B–$34.5B. Home-closing guidance was lowered to 83,800–84,300 units from 86,000–87,500 as affordability constraints and cautious consumer sentiment continue to pressure demand. 

• Dividends/Share Buybacks: Declared a quarterly dividend of $0.45 per share. 

• Comment: The reported quarter was better than expected. EPS and revenue exceeded consensus, closings increased, and home-sales gross margin of 20.7% was above expectations of approximately 19.9%. This suggests D.R. Horton’s scale, entry-level positioning and incentive strategy continue to protect volumes better than many competitors. However, the guidance reduction indicates that demand remains fragile. Net sales orders were flat, the cancellation rate increased to 20% from 17%, and management expects buyer incentives to remain elevated during 4QFY26. Mortgage-rate buydowns support closings but pressure average selling prices and margins, while tariffs and construction-cost inflation create additional headwinds. Shares closed down about 0.9%, after initially fluctuating around the mixed results. The principal variables are mortgage rates, incentive intensity, gross-margin resilience and order growth. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $130 to $180. Neutral Outlook. 

 

D.R. Horton, Inc.（DHI) 

• 26财年第三季度营收：92.3亿美元，同比持平，小幅超出预期6000万美元 

• 26财年第三季度公认会计准则每股收益：3.20美元，超出预期0.21美元 

• 26财年全年指引下调：合并营收指引降至325亿–330亿美元（原为335亿–345亿美元）；房屋交付量指引下调至83,800–84,300套（原为86,000–87,500套） 

• 股息：宣布季度股息每股0.45美元 

• 短评：本季度表现好于市场悲观预期。尽管营收同比零增长，但EPS显著超预期，房屋交付量增加，销售毛利率达20.7%（高于预期的19.9%），凸显公司在行业逆风中的运营韧性。其聚焦首次购房者（entry-level）有效维持了销量，优于多数同业。然而，前瞻指引明显趋弱，反映需求基本面仍承压：净订单持平，未见改善；取消率升至20%（前值17%），显示购房者信心不稳；管理层预计Q4仍将维持高力度激励措施（如房贷利率补贴），虽支撑交付，但压制均价与利润率；关税与建筑成本通胀进一步挤压盈利空间。财报后股价微跌0.9%，市场对“当季稳健但前景谨慎”的组合反应中性。投资者关注焦点已从“是否超预期”转向“需求能否实质性复苏”。后续关键变量包括：（1）抵押贷款利率走势——若显著下行，或触发需求回温；（2）激励强度是否见顶；（3）毛利率能否在促销环境下保持20%以上；（4）新订单能否恢复增长。作为美国最大住宅 builders，D.R. Horton凭借规模、产品定位与财务纪律在周期底部展现抗压能力，但全面复苏仍需宏观环境配合。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：130美元至180美元。中性前景。 
   

The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $7.07B, +20.9% YoY, beat estimates by $170M 

• 2Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.62, beat estimates by $0.07 

• FY26 Guidance: Raised FY26 revenue-growth guidance to 17.5%–18.5% from 14%–15%. The stronger outlook reflects higher client trading, wider net interest margins and sustained organic asset growth. 

• Dividends/Share Buybacks: Declared $0.32 per common share during the quarter, up from $0.27 a year ago. Schwab repurchased 11.2M shares for approximately $1.0B in 2Q26. 

• Comment: This was a strong, broad-based quarter. Core net new assets reached $119.8B, total client assets increased 22% to $13.08T and 1.4M new brokerage accounts were opened. Daily average trades increased 57% to a record 11.9M, while the net interest margin expanded 12 bps sequentially to 3.00%. The main concern is the durability of unusually elevated trading activity and the market’s sensitivity to cash-sorting trends. Expenses rose 12% YoY, slightly faster than some expectations, although revenue growth and margin expansion remained substantially stronger. The stock declined 2.5% after initially rising, despite the earnings beat and upgraded revenue outlook. The principal variables are client cash balances, deposit funding costs, interest-rate sensitivity, trading normalization and expense discipline. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $90 to $115. Neutral Outlook. 

 

嘉信理财公司（SCHW) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：70.7亿美元，同比增长20.9%，超出预期1.7亿美元 

• 26财年第二季度非公认会计准则每股收益：1.62美元，超出预期0.07美元 

• 26财年全年指引上调：营收增速指引提升至17.5%–18.5%（原为14%–15%），受益于客户交易活跃度提升、净利息边际扩大及有机资产持续增长 

• 股息与回购：季度股息上调至每股0.32美元（去年同期0.27美元）；Q2回购1120万股，耗资约10亿美元 

• 短评：本季度表现强劲且全面。核心净新增资产达1198亿美元，客户总资产同比增长22%至13.08万亿美元，新开立经纪账户140万个。日均交易量同比激增57%至创纪录的1190万笔，显示散户及机构客户活跃度高涨；净利息边际环比扩大12个基点至3.00%，反映其在高利率环境下有效优化了资产负债结构。然而，股价在盘后先涨后跌，最终收低2.5%，反映市场对两大隐忧的担忧：交易活动是否可持续：当前交易量处于异常高位，若市场波动降温或投资者转向长期持有，收入可能回落；“现金分层”（cash sorting）：客户将资金从低息银行存款转向货币基金等高收益产品，虽短期推高利息收入，但长期可能抬升资金成本，压缩利差。此外，运营费用同比增长12%，略快于部分预期，尽管被更强的收入增长所覆盖，但仍引发对成本纪律的关注。后续关键变量包括：（1）客户现金余额规模与结构变化；（2）存款与货币基金的资金成本走势；（3）利率政策路径对净息差的影响；（4）交易量是否温和回归但仍高于趋势水平；（5）费用增速能否控制在收入增长之下。嘉信作为零售财富管理龙头，在高利率与市场活跃双重利好下盈利强劲，但其商业模式对宏观利率和客户行为高度敏感。当前估值已部分反映乐观预期，需观察交易与利差可持续性。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：90美元至115美元。中性前景。 

 

General Motors Co. (GM) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $48.03B, +1.9% YoY, beat estimates by $940M 

• 2Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $3.57, beat estimates by $0.39 

• FY26 Guidance: Raised adjusted EBIT forecast to $14B-$16B from previous $13.5B-$15.5B and adjusted automotive free cash flow to $9.5B-$11.5B, up from $9B-$11B. Expect lower net income attributable to stockholders of $8.4B-$9.8B, down from previous lowered guidance of $9.9B-$11.4B. 

• Comment: General Motors delivered a strong second quarter, with adjusted EPS of US$3.57 and revenue of US$48.03bn exceeding expectations, supported by resilient consumer demand, disciplined pricing, lower warranty costs and reduced electric-vehicle losses. Revenue increased 1.9% YoY, while adjusted earnings rose about 30% to more than US$3.9bn and North American adjusted EBIT margin expanded 2.5 percentage points to 8.6%, helped by a strong mix of pickup trucks and SUVs and an average transaction price of around US$52,000. Although reported net income fell 31% YoY to US$1.3bn due partly to charges related to GM’s EV pullback, management raised FY2026 guidance for adjusted EBIT to US$14-16bn, adjusted EPS to US$12–14 and automotive free cash flow to US$9.5-11.5bn. Looking ahead, GM is well positioned to sustain earnings momentum through pricing discipline, further warranty and cost improvements, growth in digital services and continued narrowing of EV losses, although tariff uncertainty, the remaining cash costs of its EV restructuring and any weakening in U.S. vehicle demand remain key near-term risks. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $70 to $90. Neutral Outlook. 

 

通用汽车公司（GM) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：480.3亿美元，同比增长1.9%，超出预期9.4亿美元 

• 26财年第二季度非公认会计准则每股收益：3.57美元，超出预期0.39美元 

• 26财年全年指引：将调整后EBIT预期从135亿-155亿美元上调至140亿-160亿美元；将调整后汽车自由现金流预期从90亿-110亿美元上调至95亿-115亿美元。预计归属于股东的净利润将降至84亿-98亿美元，低于此前下调后的99亿-114亿美元指引。 

• 短评：本季度业绩表现强劲，在消费者需求具韧性、定价纪律严明、保修成本降低以及电动汽车亏损减少的支撑下，调整后每股收益达3.57美元，营收达480.3亿美元，双双超出预期。营收同比增长1.9%，调整后收益增长约30%至逾39亿美元，得益于皮卡和SUV的强劲产品组合以及约5.2万美元的平均交易价格，北美调整后EBIT利润率扩大2.5个百分点至8.6%。尽管受电动汽车战略收缩相关费用等因素影响，报告净利润同比下跌31%至13亿美元，但管理层仍上调了26财年全年指引：调整后EBIT预期为140亿-160亿美元，调整后EPS为12-14美元，汽车自由现金流为95亿-115亿美元。展望未来，通用汽车有望通过严格的定价纪律、进一步的保修与成本优化、数字服务的增长以及电动汽车亏损的持续收窄来维持盈利动能。然而，关税不确定性、电动汽车重组剩余的现金成本以及美国汽车需求的任何减弱，仍是近期的关键风险。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：70美元至90美元。中性前景。 

 

3M Co. (MMM) 

• 2Q26 Adj. Revenue: $6.5B, +5.4% YoY, beat estimates by $100M 

• 2Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.40, beat estimates by $0.15 

• FY26 Guidance: Raised full-year adjusted profit per share to between US$8.80 and US$8.95, compared with its earlier forecast of US$8.50 to US$8.70. Expects its annual cost impact to be $150M to $175M higher than a previous forecast of $125M.  

• Comment: 3M reported a strong quarter, with revenue increasing 2.4% YoY to US$6.5bn and adjusted EPS of US$2.40, beating consensus expectations of US$2.25. Performance was supported by continued strength in its Safety & Industrial segment, where sales grew over 8% driven by robust demand for electrical products, adhesives, abrasives, industrial specialties and a recovery in roofing granules. The Transportation & Electronics segment also delivered nearly 6% sales growth as strong demand from data centres and semiconductors offset continued weakness in automotive markets. Improved cost discipline, pricing actions, and ongoing operational initiatives under CEO William Brown helped offset inflationary pressures, prompting management to raise its FY26 adjusted EPS guidance to US$8.80-8.95 from US$8.50-8.70 despite expecting a higher US$150-175mn inflationary cost impact from elevated oil prices. 3M is well-positioned to sustain earnings growth through continued pricing discipline, cost optimisation and a stronger mix of higher-value industrial and electronics products. Ongoing demand from electrical infrastructure, semiconductors and data centre investments should continue to support growth, while operational improvements under its restructuring initiatives provide additional margin upside. However, near-term performance remains subject to macroeconomic uncertainty, persistent inflationary pressures, and weaker demand in automotive end markets, although management expects pricing actions to largely offset these headwinds. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $160 to $200. Positive Outlook. 

 

3M公司（MMM) 

• 26财年第二季度调整后营收：65.0亿美元，同比增长5.4%，超出预期1.0亿美元 

• 26财年第二季度非公认会计准则每股收益：2.40美元，超出预期0.15美元 

• 26财年全年指引：将全年调整后每股收益预期从8.50-8.70美元上调至8.80-8.95美元。预计年度成本影响将比此前预测的1.25亿美元高出1.50亿至1.75亿美元。 

• 短评：本季度业绩表现强劲，营收同比增长2.4%至65.0亿美元，调整后每股收益达2.40美元，超出市场共识预期的2.25美元。业绩增长得益于安全与工业部门的持续强劲表现，该部门销售额增长超8%，主要受电气产品、粘合剂、研磨材料、工业特种产品及屋顶颗粒需求复苏的推动。交通与电子部门也实现了近6%的销售增长，数据中心和半导体的强劲需求抵消了汽车市场的持续疲软。在首席执行官William Brown的领导下，成本纪律的改善、定价策略及持续的运营举措帮助抵消了通胀压力，促使管理层将26财年调整后EPS指引从8.50-8.70美元上调至8.80-8.95美元，尽管预计高油价将带来1.50亿至1.75亿美元的更高通胀成本影响。展望未来，3M有望通过持续的定价纪律、成本优化以及更高附加值的工业和电子产品组合来维持盈利增长。电气基础设施、半导体和数据中心投资的持续需求将继续支撑增长，而重组举措下的运营改善将提供额外的利润率上行空间。然而，近期业绩仍受制于宏观经济不确定性、持续的通胀压力以及汽车终端市场需求疲软，尽管管理层预计定价举措将很大程度上抵消这些逆风。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：160美元至200美元。积极前景。