Technical Analysis – 22 January 2025

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Oracle Corp. (ORCL US)

• Shares closed at a high since December 2024 with a surge in volume. 5dEMA is about to cross the 50dEMA.
  
• MACD just turned positive, RSI is constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 170 Target 190 Stop 160
  

Pinterest, Inc. (PINS US)

• Shares closed higher above 50dEMA with more volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 20dEMA and 50dEMA.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 31.5 Target 35.5 Stop 29.5
  

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Rex International Holding Ltd. (REXI SP)

• Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with more volume. 50dEMA just crossed the 200dEMA.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
  
• Long – Entry 0.140, Target 0.150, Stop 0.135
  

Tianjin Pharmaceutical Da Re Tang Group. (TIAN SP)

• Shares closed higher above the 20dEMA. 5dEMA just crossed the 20dEMA.
  
• MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 2.10 Target 2.30, Stop 2.00
  

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AAC Technologies Holdings Inc (2018 HK)

• Shares closed at a 52-week high above the 5wEMA.
  
• Both MACD and RSI are constructive.
  
• Long – Entry 39, Target 43, Stop 37
  

Kingdee International Software Group Co Ltd (268 HK)

• Shares closed at a 1-month high above the 5dEMA with rising volume. The 20dEMA is about to cross the 50dEMA.
  
• RSI is constructive and MACD is positive.
  
• Long – Entry 9.0 Target 10.0, Stop 8.5
  

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Charles Schwab Corp (SCHW)

• 4Q24 Revenue: $5.33B, +19.5% YoY, beat estimates by $130M
  
• 4Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.01, beat estimates by $0.10
  
• FY25 Guidance: Expect net interest margin expanding to 2.8% by FY25.
  
• Comment: Charles Schwab delivered robust results, driven by a significant increase in asset management fees. The market rally, fueled by expectations of lower corporate taxes and deregulation under newly elected U.S. President Donald Trump, contributed to a surge in Schwab’s assets under management and corresponding fees. Asset management and administration fees, primarily from managing mutual funds and exchange-traded funds, rose 22% to $1.5 billion. In the near term, U.S. companies are expected to benefit from the pro-business policies of the Trump administration, which aim to stimulate economic growth and corporate profitability. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $76 to $90. Positive Outlook.
  

查尔斯·斯瓦布 (SCHW)

• 24财年第四季营收：53.3亿美元，同比增长19.5%，超出预期1.3亿美元。
  
• 24财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：1.01美元，超出预期0.10美元。
  
• 25财年指引：预计净息差将扩大至2.8%。
  
• 短评：查尔斯·斯瓦布公布了强劲的业绩，资产管理费的显著增长是主要驱动力。新当选的美国总统特朗普的减税和放松监管政策提振了市场，推动了斯瓦布的资产管理规模和相应费用的增长。资产管理和行政费用（主要来自管理共同基金和交易所交易基金）增长了22%，达到15亿美元。短期内，美国公司有望受益于特朗普政府的亲商政策，这些政策旨在刺激经济增长和企业盈利能力。25财年第一季度建议交易区间：76至90美元。积极前景。
  

3M Co (MMM)

• 4Q24 Adjusted Revenue: $5.8B, -24.6% YoY, miss estimates by $50M
  
• 4Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.68, beat estimates by $0.14
  
• FY25 Guidance: Expects adjusted total sales growth of 0.5% to 1.5%; expects non-GAAP EPS to be between $7.60 to $7.90, midpoint of $7.75 below consensus of $7.79; expects adjusted organic sales growth of 2% to 3%; expects adjusted operating cash flow of $5.20bn to $5.30bn.
  
• Comment: 3M Co. reported stronger-than-expected earnings for the quarter and provided FY25 guidance aligned with market expectations. Although adjusted revenue fell short of estimates, comparable sales—excluding the impact of discontinued chemical products—rose 2.1% year-over-year, marking the company’s fastest growth rate in recent history. Under the leadership of CEO William Brown, the company is showing clear signs of a turnaround, emphasizing research, innovation, and streamlined operations. Key drivers of growth included standout performances in the Transportation & Electronics and Safety & Industrial segments. Transportation & Electronics posted a 3.4% increase, fueled by successful new product launches, while Safety & Industrial grew 0.7%, supported by stronger demand for adhesives and roofing products. These results underscore the effectiveness of the restructuring efforts spearheaded by Brown. However, MMM continues to face headwinds from a stronger dollar, which pressures its international sales, a trend linked to market optimism around pro-business policies under the Trump administration. The company plans to unveil more details of its growth strategy at an analyst event in February. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $135 to $165. Positive Outlook.
  

3M公司 (MMM)

• 24财年第四季营收： 58亿美元，同比下降24.6%，低于预期5000万美元。
  
• 24财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利： 1.68美元，超出预期0.14美元。
  
• 25财年指引：预计调整后总销售额增长0.5%至1.5%；预计非GAAP每股收益在7.60美元至7.90美元之间，中值为7.75美元，低于市场共识的7.79美元；预计调整后有机销售额增长2%至3%；预计调整后经营现金流为52亿美元至53亿美元。
  
• 短评：MMM公司本季度盈利超出预期，并给出了与市场预期一致的25财年指引。尽管调整后营收未达预期，但剔除停产化学产品的影响后，可比销售额同比增长2.1%，为公司近期最快增长速度。在CEO William Brown的领导下，公司展现出明显的复苏迹象，强调研发、创新和精简运营。增长主要动力包括运输与电子以及安全与工业部门的出色表现。运输与电子部门增长3.4%，得益于新产品成功推出；安全与工业部门增长0.7%，得益于对粘合剂和屋顶产品的需求增强。这些结果凸显了Brown领导的重组工作的有效性。然而，MMM仍面临美元走强带来的不利影响，这对其国际销售造成压力，而这一趋势与特朗普政府推行亲商政策所引发的市场乐观情绪有关。公司计划在2月份的分析师会议上公布更多增长战略细节。25财年第一季度建议交易区间：135至165美元。积极前景。
  

D.R. Horton Inc (DHI)

• 1Q25 Revenue: $7.6B, -1.3% YoY, beat estimates by $520M
  
• 1Q25 GAAP EPS: $2.61, beat estimates by $0.24
  
• 1Q25 Dividend: D.R. Horton (NYSE:DHI) declared $0.40/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous; Forward yield 1.08%; Payable Feb. 14; for shareholders of record Feb. 7; ex-div Feb. 7.
  
• FY25 Guidance: Re-affirms FY25 outlook. Expects consolidated revenue of between $36.0bn to $37.5bn, midpoint of $36.75bn below consensus of $37.09bn; expects around 90k – 92k homes closed by homebuilding operations, midpoint of 91k homes below consensus of 91.3k homes; expects an income tax rate of 24.0%.
  
• Comment: D.R. Horton delivered better-than-expected results, despite ongoing buyer affordability challenges and competitive market conditions. The company has effectively utilized incentives, such as mortgage rate buydowns, to improve affordability and stimulate demand. While higher home prices have created obstacles for many buyers, D.R. Horton has responded by increasing the availability of homes with smaller floor plans, aligning with consumer needs. Management emphasized that favorable demographic trends continue to support housing demand over the long term. Additionally, the company reiterated its commitment to offering mortgage rate buydowns as a strategy to attract more buyers. In a positive development, D.R. Horton announced an increase in its stock buyback program, raising its planned repurchases for the year to $2.6–$2.8 billion from its prior guidance of $2.4 billion. However, elevated 30-year mortgage rates, currently above 7.0%, remain a significant headwind for homebuyers, adding pressure to affordability.1Q25 recommended trading range: $130 to $168. Positive Outlook.
  

D.R. Horton Inc. (DHI)

• 25财年第一季营收：76亿美元，同比下降1.3%，超出预期5.2亿美元。
  
• 25财年第一季GAAP每股盈利：2.61美元，超出预期0.24美元。
  
• 25财年第一季分红：D.R. Horton宣布每股季度分红0.40美元，与之前持平；远期收益率1.08%；支付日2月14日；股权登记日2月7日；除息日2月7日。
  
• 25财年指引：重申FY25展望。预计合并营收在360亿美元至375亿美元之间，中值为367.5亿美元，低于市场共识的370.9亿美元；预计房屋建筑业务将关闭约9万至9.2万套房屋，中值为9.1万套，低于市场共识的91.3万套；预计所得税率为24.0%。
  
• 短评：D.R. Horton尽管面临持续的购房者负担能力挑战和竞争激烈的市场环境，但仍交出了超出预期的业绩。公司有效地利用了抵押贷款利率买断等激励措施，以改善负担能力并刺激需求。虽然更高的房价给许多购房者带来了障碍，但D.R. Horton通过增加小型户型的供应来应对，以满足消费者的需求。管理层强调，有利的人口趋势长期支持住房需求。此外，公司重申了提供抵押贷款利率买断作为吸引更多购房者战略的承诺。在积极的发展中，D.R. Horton宣布增加股票回购计划，将其计划的年度回购额从之前的24亿美元提高到26亿至28亿美元。然而，目前高于7.0%的高额30年期抵押贷款利率仍是购房者的重大阻力，给负担能力带来压力。25财年第二季度建议交易区间：130至168美元。积极前景。
  

United Microelectronics Corp (UMC)

• 4Q24 Revenue: $1.84B, +9.9% YoY, miss estimates by $10M
  
• 4Q24 GAAP EPS: $0.10, miss estimates by $0.05
  
• 1Q25 Guidance: UMC expects 1Q25 wafer shipments to remain flat quarter-over-quarter, while average selling prices in USD are forecast to decrease by mid-single digits. The company projects 1Q25 gross margin will be above 25%, factoring in impact from a January earthquake.
  
• Comment: United Microelectronics Corp (UMC) reported weaker-than-expected results and provided cautious guidance for the near term. Management forecasted flat quarter-over-quarter wafer shipments alongside a decline in average selling prices. For FY25, UMC anticipates single-digit growth, trailing the industry’s projected growth rate of approximately 10%, according to market estimates. The company continues to navigate a challenging operating environment, characterized by rising depreciation costs and a sluggish recovery in capacity utilization. While restocking demand from the consumer electronics market offers some support, these factors remain headwinds in the near term. Looking ahead, UMC is positioned to benefit from growing demand for AI-driven applications, particularly in edge devices and peripherals, which could support its longer-term growth prospects. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $5.20 to $6.40. Negative Outlook.
  

联电 (UMC)

• 24财年第四季营收：184亿美元，同比增长9.9%，低于预期1000万美元。
  
• 24财年第四季GAAP每股盈利： 0.10美元，低于预期0.05美元。
  
• 25财年第一季指引：预计25财年第一季度晶圆出货量将保持季度环比持平，而美元平均售价预计将下降5%左右。公司预计25财年第一季度毛利率将高于25%，已考虑1月地震的影响。
  
• 短评：联电公布的业绩低于预期，并对近期前景给出了谨慎的指引。管理层预计晶圆出货量将季度环比持平，同时平均售价也将下降。对于25财年，联电预计增长为个位数，低于市场估计的行业约10%的增长率。公司继续面临着折旧成本上升和产能利用率复苏缓慢的挑战。虽然来自消费电子市场的补货需求提供了一些支持，但这些因素在短期内仍是阻力。展望未来，联电有望受益于对人工智能驱动应用的需求增长，特别是在边缘设备和外围设备方面，这可能支持其长期增长前景。25财年第一季度建议交易区间：5.20至6.40美元。负面前景。
  

New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc (EDU)

• 2Q25 Revenue: $1.04B, +19.6% YoY, beat estimates by $10M
  
• 2Q25 Non-GAAP EPADS: $0.22, miss estimates by $0.08
  
• 3Q25 Guidance: Expects third quarter revenue between $1.01bn and $1.03bn, representing growth of 18% to 21% YoY.
  
• Comment: New Oriental Education & Technology Group reported stronger-than-expected revenue but weaker-than-expected earnings for 2Q25. Management attributed the healthy top-line growth to the continued expansion of non-academic tutoring services and intelligent learning systems. Revenue from overseas test preparation and study consulting businesses also showed strong performance, growing 21.1% and 31% YoY, respectively. However, operating income declined 9.8% YoY to $19.3mn, largely due to costs associated with accelerated capacity expansion in its educational businesses. The company continues to face regulatory challenges from China’s “double reduction” policy, aimed at reducing student workloads and private tutoring hours. This has forced New Oriental to diversify its offerings and adopt strategic cost management, contributing to a 20% YoY increase in operational expenses. Looking ahead, management reaffirmed its focus on strategic growth and profitability by expanding its private-label product offerings and leveraging a multi-platform approach through its EDU learning centres. These initiatives are expected to support the company’s long-term resilience and adaptability in a shifting regulatory environment. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $36 to $56. Neutral Outlook.
  

新东方教育科技 (EDU)

• 25财年第二季营收： 10.4亿美元，同比增长19.6%，超出预期1000万美元。
  
• 25财年第二季Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.22美元，低于预期0.08美元。
  
• 25财年第三季指引：预计第三季度营收在10.1亿至10.3亿美元之间，同比增长18%至21%。
  
• 短评：新东方教育科技集团公布了强于预期的营收，但盈利低于预期。公司将营收增长归功于非学术辅导服务和智能学习系统的持续扩张。海外考试准备和学习咨询业务也表现强劲，同比分别增长21.1%和31%。然而，由于教育业务加速扩产带来的成本增加，营业利润同比下降9.8%至1930万美元。公司继续面临中国“双减”政策带来的监管挑战。为了应对这一挑战，新东方已多元化其产品并采取战略性成本管理措施，导致运营费用同比增长20%。展望未来，公司重申将通过扩大自有品牌产品和利用EDU学习中心的多平台方法，实现战略增长和盈利能力。这些举措有望支持公司在不断变化的监管环境下的长期韧性和适应性。25财年第三季度建议交易区间：36至56美元。中性前景。
  

Netflix Inc (NFLX)

• 4Q24 Revenue: $10.25B, +16.1% YoY, beat estimates by $140M
  
• 4Q24 GAAP EPS: $4.27, beat estimates by $0.07
  
• FY25 Guidance: Expects revenue of $43.5B to $44.5Bi, an increase of a half-billion dollars over the prior forecast.
  
• Share buyback: Board approved an incremental $15B to repurchase shares, which brings the total buyback authorisation to $17.1B
  
• Comment: In the fourth quarter, Netflix surpassed forecasts adding 18.9 million subscribers, driven by live events such as the Jake Paul and Mike Tyson boxing match and popular shows like Squid Game. Revenue rose 16% to US$10.2bn, and earnings hit US$4.27 per share, both exceeding estimates. Annual operating income exceeded US$10bn for the first time. Netflix announced price hikes in select regions and projected 2025 revenue of US$43.5bn to US$44.5bn. Live events boosted ad-supported tier sign-ups, expected to generate more ad revenue in 2025. The company plans to increase prices for most service plans in the US, Canada, Portugal and Argentina, where it spends more on programming. With 41 million subscribers added in 2024, it will shift focus from subscriber growth to revenue and profit metrics as growth slows. A US$15bn share buyback was approved, signalling confidence in continued momentum. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $850 to $1050. Positive Outlook.
  

Netflix Inc (NFLX))

• 24财年第四季营收： 102.5亿美元，同比增长16.1%，超出预期1.4亿美元。
  
• 24财年第四季度GAAP每股盈利：4.27美元，超出预期0.07美元。
  
• 25财年指引：预计收入为435-445亿美元，较此前预测提高5亿美元。
  
• 股票回购: 董事会批准增发150亿美元用于股票回购，使总回购授权额达到171亿美元。
  
• 短评：第四季度，Netflix新增订阅用户1890万，超出预期，受到Jake Paul和Mike Tyson拳击赛等直播赛事以及《鱿鱼游戏》等热门剧集的推动。 收入增长16%至102亿美元，每股收益达到4.27美元，均超出预期。 年度营业收入首次超过100亿美元。 Netflix宣布在部分地区上调价格，并预计2025年收入为435-445亿美元。 直播赛事推动了广告支持层级的订阅增长，预计将在2025年产生更多广告收入。 公司计划在美国、加拿大、葡萄牙和阿根廷等节目支出较高的地区上调大多数服务计划的价格。 随着2024年新增4100万订阅用户，该公司将从订阅用户增长转向收入和利润指标，因为增长正在放缓。 批准了150亿美元的股票回购，表明对持续增长势头的信心。 25财年第一季度建议交易区间：850至1050美元。积极前景。
  

United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL)

• 4Q24 Revenue: $14.67B, +7.6% YoY, beat estimates by $330M
  
• 4Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $3.26, beat estimates by $0.26
  
• 1Q25 Guidance: Expect to earn adjusted earnings of $0.75 to $1.25 per share above the $0.54 analysts estimate
  
• FY25 Guidance: Expects to grow adjusted earnings to $11.50 to $13.50, slightly below expectations of about $12.85
  
• Comment: United Airlines exceeded fourth quarter expectations, reporting adjusted earnings of US$3.26 per share versus a US$3.00 forecast, driven by robust travel demand and higher fares. Premium and economy sales rose 10% and 20%, respectively, while corporate bookings increased 7%. The airline expects 1Q25 profits between US$0.75 and US$1.25 per share, surpassing analysts’ US$0.54 estimate. Full-year 2025 profit guidance is US$11.50 to US$13.50 per share, slightly below Wall Street’s US$12.85 estimate. United anticipates double-digit pre-tax margins and further pricing power growth due to limited seat supply. Looking ahead, we expect United Airlines revenue to continue to benefit from pricier seats and its loyalty programs alongside lower jet fuel prices from President Trump’s plan to boost US oil output. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $105 to $125. Positive Outlook.
  

联合航空控股公司 (UAL)

• 24财年第四季营收： 146.7亿美元，同比增长7.6%，超出预期3.3亿美元。
  
• 24财年第四季GAAP每股盈利：3.26美元，超出预期0.26美元。
  
• 25财年第一季度指引: 预计每股调整后收益为0.75-1.25美元，高于分析师预期的0.54美元
  
• 25财年指引：预计调整后收益为11.50-13.50美元，略低于华尔街预期的12.85美元。
  
• 短评：联合航空公布了超出预期的第四季度业绩，调整后每股收益为3.26美元，高于预期的3.00美元，得益于强劲的旅行需求和更高的票价。 高级舱和经济舱销售额分别增长10%和20%，而企业预订量增长7%。 该航空公司预计2025年第一季度每股盈利为0.75-1.25美元，超过分析师预期的0.54美元。 2025年全年盈利指引为每股11.50-13.50美元，略低于华尔街预期的12.85美元。 联合航空预计税前利润率将达到两位数，并由于座位供应有限而进一步提高定价权。 展望未来，我们预计联合航空的收入将继续受益于更昂贵的座位、其忠诚度计划以及特朗普总统提高美国石油产量的计划带来的较低的燃油价格。 25财年第一季度建议交易区间：105至125美元。积极前景。
  

Interactive Brokers Group Inc (IBKR)

• 4Q24 Revenue: $1.39B, +21.9% YoY, beat estimates by $20M
  
• 4Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.03, beat estimates by $0.17
  
• FY25 Guidance: No guidance provided.
  
• Dividend: Declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.25 per share, payable on 14 March 2025
  
• Comment: Interactive Brokers reported strong fourth quarter results, with earnings per share of US$2.03 exceeding estimates by US$0.17, and revenue of US$1.39bn beating expectations. This was driven by a 37% YoY rise in commission revenue, boosted by surging trading volumes in options by 32% and stocks by 65%. Net interest income grew 11% to US$807mn due to higher margin loans and credit balances. Customer accounts increased 30% YoY to 3.34mn, while equity rose 33% to US$568.2bn. The board declared a US$0.25 dividend, with a 76% pretax profit margin achieved. Looking ahead, we anticipate continued market volatility, which could benefit Interactive Brokers by driving higher trading volumes and commissions. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $190 to $220. Positive Outlook.
  

盈透证券集团 (IBKR)

• 24财年第四季营收： 13.9亿美元，同比增长21.9%，超出预期2000万美元。
  
• 24财年第四季GAAP每股盈利：2.03美元，超出预期0.17美元。
  
• 25财年指引：未提供指引。
  
• 股息: 宣布每股派发现金股息0.25美元，将于2025年3月14日支付
  
• 短评：盈透证券公布了强劲的第四季度业绩，每股收益为2.03美元，超出预期0.17美元，收入为13.9亿美元，超出预期。 这是由佣金收入同比增长37%驱动的，受益于期权交易量激增32%和股票交易量增长65%。 净利息收入增长11%至8.07亿美元，原因是保证金贷款和信用余额增加。 客户账户同比增长30%至334万个，而权益资本增长33%至5682亿美元。 董事会宣布派发每股0.25美元的股息，实现76%的税前利润率。 展望未来，我们预计市场波动性将持续，这可能会通过推动更高的交易量和佣金收入而使盈透证券受益。。25财年第一季度建议交易区间：190至220美元。积极前景。
  

Seagate Technology Holdings PLC (STX)

• 2Q25 Revenue: $2.33B, +49.4% YoY, beat estimates by $10M
  
• 2Q25 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.03, beat estimates by $0.15
  
• 3Q25 Guidance: Expects revenue of $2.1B, plus or minus $150M and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $1.70, plus or minus $0.20
  
• Dividend: Declared cash dividend of $0.72 per share, payable on 2 April 2025
  
• Comment: Seagate Technology delivered revenue of US$2.33bn rising 49.5% YoY and a non-GAAP EPS of US$2.03, surpassing analysts’ estimates. The company’s gross margin expanded to 35.5%. Seagate forecasted third quarter revenue of US$2.10bn, ±US$150mn, below analyst expectations of US$2.19bn, citing weak demand for storage devices in the struggling PC market. Adjusted profit guidance matched estimates at US$1.70 per share. Global PC shipments in 2024 rose only 1%, and inventory normalization for memory devices remains slow. However, investments by cloud providers in generative AI infrastructure in 2025 may boost Seagate’s sales. The recent announcement of a US$500bn investment in AI infrastructure by the US government, alongside initiatives from top tech firms, further supports this expectation. 3Q25 recommended trading range: $100 to $110. Positive Outlook.
  

希捷科技控股有限公司 (STX)

• 25财年第二季营收： 23.3亿美元，同比增长49.4%，超出预期1000万美元。
  
• 25财年第二季GAAP每股盈利：2.03美元，超出预期0.15美元
  
• 25财年第二季股息: 宣布派发每股现金股息0.72美元，于2025年4月2日支付
  
• 25财年第三季度指引: 预计收入为21亿美元，正负1.5亿美元，以及非GAAP摊薄每股收益为1.70美元，正负0.20美元
  
• 短评：希捷科技实现收入23.3亿美元，同比增长49.5%，非GAAP每股收益为2.03美元，均超出分析师预期。 公司毛利率扩大至35.5%。 希捷预计第三季度收入为21亿美元，正负1.5亿美元，低于分析师预期的2.19亿美元，原因是疲软的PC市场对存储设备的需求疲软。 调整后的盈利指引与预期一致，为每股1.70美元。 2024年全球PC出货量仅增长1%，内存设备库存正常化仍进展缓慢。 然而，云服务提供商在2025年对生成式AI基础设施的投资可能会推动希捷的销售。 美国政府最近宣布对AI基础设施投资5000亿美元，以及来自顶级科技公司的举措，进一步支持了这一预期。25财年第三季度建议交易区间：100至110美元。积极前景。