Technical Analysis: 21 July 2026

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $112.0B, +0.3% YoY, beat estimates by $1.14B 

• 2Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $6.38, beat estimates by $1.46 

• FY26 Guidance: Raised FY26 adjusted EPS guidance to $19.50–$20.00 from at least $18.25. The medical-care-ratio outlook improved to 88.1% ±25 bps, while operating cash-flow guidance increased to approximately $24B. 

• Dividends/Share Buybacks: The quarterly dividend was raised 5% to $2.32 per share in June. UnitedHealth had repurchased $4.0B of shares through mid-July and now expects at least $5.0B of FY26 repurchases, versus approximately $2.5B previously. 

• Comment: This was a decisive earnings beat, driven primarily by better medical-cost control. The medical care ratio improved to 86.7% from 89.4% a year ago and was significantly better than market expectations. Optum operating earnings reached $4.0B, with operating margin expanding 160 bps YoY, indicating that the recovery extended beyond the insurance business. However, part of the medical-cost improvement reflected $860M of favourable prior-period development. Management also maintained a cautious view on elevated commercial medical trends, specialty-drug costs and No Surprises Act arbitration expenses. This explains why the shares initially rose approximately 8% but closed only about 1%–2% higher after trading as high as $460.03. The principal variables are whether the lower medical-cost ratio persists without reserve benefits, execution of Medicare Advantage repricing and benefit reductions, Optum Health margin recovery, and continuing regulatory investigations. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $380 to $400. Neutral Outlook. 

 

联合健康集团（UNH) 

• 26年第二季度营收：1,120亿美元，同比增长0.3%，超出市场预期11.4亿美元 

• 26年第二季度非GAAP每股收益：6.38美元，超出市场预期1.46美元 

• 26财年全年指引：将全年调整后EPS指引从至少18.25美元上调至19.50–20.00美元。医疗赔付率（MCR）展望改善至88.1% ±25个基点，经营现金流指引上调至约240亿美元。 

• 股息/股票回购：6月份季度股息上调5%至每股2.32美元。截至7月中旬，联合健康已回购40亿美元股票，目前预计2026财年回购规模至少达到50亿美元，高于此前预期的约25亿美元。 

• 评论：本次财报大幅超预期，主要得益于更好的医疗成本控制。医疗赔付率从去年同期的89.4%改善至86.7%，显著优于市场预期。Optum营业利润达到40亿美元，营业利润率同比扩大160个基点，表明复苏不仅限于保险业务。然而，部分医疗成本改善反映了8.6亿美元的有利前期准备金调整。管理层对商业医疗趋势走高、 specialty drug（特种药物）成本以及《无意外法案》（No Surprises Act）仲裁费用仍持谨慎态度。这解释了为何股价最初上涨约8%，但在盘中最高触及460.03美元后，收盘仅上涨1%–2%。关键变量在于：在没有准备金收益的情况下，较低的医疗赔付率能否持续；Medicare Advantage（联邦医疗保险优势计划）的重新定价和福利削减执行情况；Optum Health利润率能否持续恢复；以及监管调查的后续进展。2026年第三季度建议交易区间：380至400美元。中性展望。 

 

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $40.2B, +33.7% YoY, beat estimates by $900M 

• 2Q26 GAAP EPADR: $4.31, beat estimates by $0.37 

• 3Q26 Guidance: 3Q26 revenue is guided to US$44.6B–US$45.8B, with gross margin of 65%–67% and operating margin of 56%–58%. 

• FY26 Guidance: Management raised FY26 revenue-growth expectations to slightly above 40% and increased capital-expenditure guidance to US$60B–US$64B, reflecting continued investment in advanced-node and packaging capacity. 

• Dividends/Share Buybacks: The latest declared quarterly dividend is NT$7.00 per common share, equivalent to approximately US$1.11 per ADR, payable on October 8, 2026. 

• Comment: This was an exceptional operating quarter. AI and high-performance-computing demand drove record revenue, profit and margins, while the initial contribution from 2nm indicates that the next technology cycle has already begun. Advanced nodes remained the core growth engine, with 3nm accounting for approximately 30% of wafer revenue and 2nm contributing about 3%. The market’s concern is not demand but the increasingly demanding valuation and investment burden. TSMC’s ADR declined approximately 2.3% to $409.74 despite the earnings beat and stronger guidance, as investors focused on higher capital expenditure, overseas-fab dilution and the difficulty of continuing to exceed exceptionally elevated AI expectations. The principal variables are CoWoS and advanced-packaging capacity expansion, 2nm yield progression, the margin impact from Arizona and other overseas fabs, and whether hyperscaler AI expenditure remains sufficiently strong through 2027. The fundamental outlook remains highly constructive, but the current valuation leaves limited tolerance for execution misses. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $380 to $500. Positive Outlook. 

 

台湾积体电路制造股份有限公司（TSM) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：402亿美元，同比增长33.7%，超出预期9亿美元 

• 26财年第二季度公认会计准则每股美国存托股收益（EPADR）：4.31美元，超出预期0.37美元 

• 26财年第三季度指引：营收446亿–458亿美元，毛利率65%–67%，营业利润率56%–58% 

• 26财年全年指引：上调全年营收增速至略高于40%；资本支出大幅上调至600亿–640亿美元，重点投向先进制程（如2nm）及CoWoS先进封装产能 

• 股息：最新季度股息为每股新台币7.00元（约合每ADR 1.11美元），将于2026年10月8日支付 

• 短评：本季度表现极为强劲，创下营收、利润与利润率新高。AI与高性能计算（HPC）成为核心驱动力，占晶圆收入比重持续提升。技术迭代加速：3nm制程贡献约30%的晶圆收入，2nm已开始量产并贡献约3%，标志下一代技术周期正式启动。尽管基本面超预期且全年指引上调，ADR股价却下跌2.3%至409.74美元，反映市场关注点已从“需求是否强劲”转向“估值与执行风险”：资本开支激增至600亿–640亿美元，创历史新高，凸显公司对AI长期趋势的押注；海外工厂（如美国亚利桑那州、日本、欧洲）初期良率与成本结构可能拖累整体利润率；在AI预期已极度高涨的背景下，任何交付延迟或客户支出放缓都可能引发重估。后续关键变量包括：（1）CoWoS先进封装产能扩张进度——当前为AI芯片瓶颈环节；（2）2nm良率爬坡速度与客户导入节奏；（3）海外晶圆厂对整体毛利率的影响是否可控；（4）超大规模客户（hyperscalers）在2027年前是否维持高强度AI资本开支。TSMC作为全球半导体制造基石，技术领先优势稳固，AI浪潮下战略地位无可替代。然而，当前估值已充分反映乐观预期，容错空间有限。若执行持续精准兑现，仍有上行潜力。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：380美元至500美元。积极前景。 

 

General Electric Company (GE) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $12.6B, +23.5% YoY, beat estimates by $710M 

• 2Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.02, beat estimates by $0.16 

• FY26 Guidance: Raised FY26 adjusted EPS guidance to $7.65–$7.85 from $7.10–$7.40. Adjusted revenue growth is now expected in the high teens, while free-cash-flow guidance increased to $8.9B–$9.2B. 

• Dividends/Share Buybacks: Declared a quarterly dividend of $0.47 per share, payable July 27, 2026. 

• Comment: This was a strong quarter driven by commercial aftermarket demand. Commercial Engines & Services revenue rose 27%, including 26% services growth, while Defense & Propulsion Technologies revenue increased 16%. Engine deliveries increased 31% in 1H26, including 41% growth in LEAP deliveries, supporting the broad guidance upgrade. The principal concern is execution rather than demand. GE’s overhaul capacity remains heavily subscribed, but supplier constraints and spare-parts delays continue to limit how quickly backlog can be converted. Segment margin also contracted as higher equipment volumes, inflation and investment diluted the favourable services mix. Shares declined approximately 4.1% despite the beat and guidance raise. The negative reaction reflects slowing order growth, from 87% in 1Q26 to 17% in 2Q26, and a demanding valuation of roughly 42x trailing earnings. The fundamental outlook remains constructive, but further upside requires sustained services growth and clearer supply-chain improvement. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $300 to $400. Neutral Outlook. 

 

通用电气公司（GE) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：126亿美元，同比增长23.5%，超出预期7.1亿美元 

• 26财年第二季度非公认会计准则每股收益：2.02美元，超出预期0.16美元 

• 26财年全年指引大幅上调：调整后EPS上调至7.65–7.85美元（原为7.10–7.40美元）；调整后营收增速预计达“高 teens”（即17%–19%）；自由现金流指引提升至89亿–92亿美元 

• 股息：宣布季度股息每股0.47美元，将于2026年7月27日支付 

• 短评：本季度表现强劲，核心驱动力来自商用航空售后市场（aftermarket）需求旺盛。商用发动机与服务收入增长27%（其中服务增长26%），国防与推进技术业务增长16%。上半年发动机交付量同比大增31%，LEAP发动机交付更飙升41%，支撑公司全面上调全年财务指引。然而，股价却下跌约4.1%，反映市场对两大隐忧的担忧：订单增速显著放缓：从Q1的87%同比激增骤降至Q2的17%，引发对未来增长可持续性的疑虑；估值高企：当前滚动市盈率约42倍，在工业股中属高位，对执行瑕疵容忍度低。尽管需求强劲，供应端仍是瓶颈：维修产能已满负荷，但供应商制约与备件交付延迟持续阻碍积压订单（backlog）向收入转化。同时，高增长设备销售拉低了高毛利服务业务的占比，叠加通胀与战略投资支出，导致分部利润率同比收缩。后续关键变量包括：（1）售后服务能否维持高双位数增长；（2）供应链瓶颈是否实质性缓解，加速 backlog 兑现；（3）LEAP等主力产品交付节奏能否持续；（4）国防与新兴技术业务是否贡献增量动能。GE航空业务正处于多年景气周期，基本面坚实，但短期估值已透支部分乐观预期。若供应链改善不及预期或订单进一步放缓，股价或承压。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：300美元至400美元。中性前景。 
   

Abbott Laboratories (ABT) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $12.59B, +13.0% YoY, beat estimates by $70M 

• 2Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.31, beat estimates by $0.03 

• FY26 Guidance: Raised FY26 adjusted EPS guidance to $5.45–$5.60 from $5.38–$5.58, while maintaining organic sales growth guidance of 6.5%–7.5%. The updated outlook incorporates the Exact Sciences acquisition and stronger diagnostics and medical-device performance. 

• Dividends/Share Buybacks: Maintained the quarterly dividend at $0.63 per share, representing Abbott’s 54th consecutive year of dividend growth. 

• Comment: This was a strong and reassuring quarter. Diagnostics revenue increased 42% to $3.09B, supported by the addition of Exact Sciences and mid-teens Cologuard growth, while Medical Devices revenue rose 9% to $5.85B. The combination of earnings beat and raised full-year guidance indicates that the acquisition is contributing without disrupting Abbott’s core medtech execution. The principal weakness was Diabetes Care, where FreeStyle Libre performance was softer than elevated expectations, particularly in the U.S. Nutrition revenue also declined 3.1%, although the result was better than feared. Abbott must now demonstrate that Libre growth can reaccelerate while integrating Exact Sciences and managing the associated earnings dilution and leverage. Shares rose approximately 11% to 12%, Abbott’s strongest one-day gain in roughly 24 years. The reaction reflects significant relief after prior medtech demand concerns. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $80 to $115. Neutral Outlook. 

 

雅培公司（ABT) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：125.9亿美元，同比增长13.0%，超出预期7000万美元 

• 26财年第二季度非公认会计准则每股收益：1.31美元，小幅超出预期0.03美元 

• 26财年全年指引更新：上调调整后EPS至5.45–5.60美元（原为5.38–5.58美元）；维持有机销售增长指引6.5%–7.5%；上调主因Exact Sciences收购贡献及诊断与医疗器械业务超预期表现 

• 股息：维持季度股息每股0.63美元，连续第54年提高股息 

• 短评：本季度表现强劲且具安抚性，显著缓解市场此前对医疗科技需求疲软的担忧。诊断业务收入同比大增42%至30.9亿美元，主要受益于Exact Sciences并表及Cologuard结直肠癌筛查产品实现中双位数增长；医疗器械业务增长9%至58.5亿美元，显示核心运营稳健。然而，糖尿病护理板块表现逊于高预期：FreeStyle Libre在美国市场增速放缓，成为主要拖累；营养品业务虽下滑3.1%，但好于市场最悲观预期。尽管ExactSciences收购带来短期盈利稀释与杠杆上升，公司仍实现EPS上调，表明整合进展顺利，未干扰核心业务执行力。财报后股价大涨11%–12%，创近24年最大单日涨幅，反映投资者对“需求稳健+整合顺利”组合的高度认可。后续关键变量包括：（1）FreeStyle Libre能否重拾增长动能，尤其在美国市场；（2）Exact Sciences的协同效应释放节奏与长期回报；（3）诊断与器械业务能否维持高个位数以上增长；（4）营养品业务是否触底企稳。雅培基本面稳固、现金流强劲、股息可靠，在医疗健康领域具备长期结构性优势。当前估值已部分反映乐观情绪，需观察Libre复苏与整合成效以支撑进一步上行。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：80美元至115美元。中性前景。 

 

Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $12.56B, +16.1% YoY, miss estimates by $20M 

• 2Q26 GAAP EPS: $0.80, beat estimates by $0.01 

• 3Q26 Guidance: 3Q26 revenue is guided to $12.86B, representing approximately 12% YoY growth, below consensus of about $13.0B. 

• FY26 Guidance: Netflix narrowed FY26 revenue guidance to approximately $51.0B–$51.4B and reiterated its expectation for advertising revenue to reach about $3B. 

• Comment: The quarter was operationally sound but insufficient against elevated expectations. Revenue grew 13%, earnings increased 9%, price increases were implemented without major disruption, and advertising remains on track to reach approximately $3B in FY26. Viewing hours also increased 2% in 1H26, indicating that engagement has not deteriorated sharply. The key concern is moderating growth and reduced disclosure. The 3Q revenue and EPS outlook missed consensus, while Netflix will reduce publication of its detailed viewing-hours report from twice yearly to annually beginning in 2027. This reinforced concerns that subscription maturity, YouTube and short-form competition, and higher content investment could make future growth less predictable. Shares initially fell approximately 8.6% after hours. The principal variables are advertising monetisation, membership growth after recent price increases, engagement trends, and returns from live programming and games. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $50 to $90. Negative Outlook. 

 

Netflix, Inc.（NFLX) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：125.6亿美元，同比增长16.1%，略低于预期2000万美元 

• 26财年第二季度公认会计准则每股收益：0.80美元，小幅超出预期0.01美元 

• 26财年第三季度指引：营收128.6亿美元（同比+12%），低于市场共识约130亿美元 

• 26财年全年指引：收窄全年营收至510亿–514亿美元；重申广告收入目标约30亿美元 

• 短评：本季度运营基本面稳健，但难敌高企的市场预期。订阅收入增长13%，盈利增长9%，近期提价未引发大规模用户流失，广告业务按计划推进，上半年观看时长亦微增2%，显示用户参与度仍具韧性。然而，核心问题在于增长放缓与透明度下降：Q3营收与盈利指引双双不及预期，暗示提价效应边际递减或新增用户动能减弱；公司宣布自2027年起将观看时长报告从半年一次改为年度发布，减少关键运营数据披露，加剧投资者对增长可见度的担忧。市场担忧正在转向结构性挑战：订阅模式趋于成熟、YouTube及短视频平台竞争加剧、内容成本持续攀升，可能削弱未来盈利可预测性。盘后股价一度大跌8.6%，反映投资者对“增长减速+信息模糊”的双重忧虑。后续关键变量包括：（1）广告业务变现效率能否超预期；（2）提价后会员净增是否可持续；（3）用户观看时长与留存率趋势；（4）直播活动（如体育、颁奖礼）与游戏业务能否开辟新增长曲线。尽管现金流强劲、全球用户基础庞大，但Netflix正从“高增长故事”向“成熟平台”过渡，估值逻辑面临重塑。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：50美元至90美元。负面前景。

Alcoa Corp. (AA) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $17.7B, +16.1% YoY, beat estimates by $130M 

• 2Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.99, beat estimates by $0.14 

• 3Q26 Guidance: Expect alumina segment performance to be net favorable by about $10M, helped by Pinjarra’s recovery and lower diesel and fuel oil prices, to be partly offset by maintenance at the Alumar refinery and Juruti mine. 

• FY26 Guidance: Lowered full-year alumina production guidance to 9.5M to 9.6M metric tons and shipment guidance to 11.5M to 11.6M metric tons, citing the disruption at Pinjarra. Refinery has stabilized, but it does not expect to fully recover the lost second-quarter volumes. The company also raised full-year depreciation guidance to about $660M and other corporate expenses to about $180M. 

• Comment: Alcoa delivered a strong second quarter, with revenue rising 24% YoY to a record US$4.0bn and adjusted EBITDA increasing to US$901mn, driven by higher aluminum prices, increased shipments, and improved value-added product premiums. Primary aluminum production increased by 30,000 metric tons following several capacity restarts, while stable operations and disciplined cost management helped the aluminum segment achieve a record EBITDA margin of 32.3%. The company also advanced several strategic initiatives, including expanding its Norwegian casthouse, developing a gallium production facility in Australia, and announcing the transformative acquisition of South32’s upstream aluminum assets, which is expected to add substantial production capacity, generate approximately US$900mn in net present value synergies, and be immediately accretive to earnings and cash flow. Despite operational challenges at the Pinjarra refinery that led to lower full-year alumina production guidance, Alcoa maintained a strong balance sheet with US$1.4bn in cash and generated US$422mn of free cash flow during the quarter. Alcoa is well-positioned to benefit from favorable long-term aluminum and alumina fundamentals, supported by increasing demand from electrification, grid investment, transportation, packaging, and broader industrial growth. The acquisition of South32’s upstream assets significantly strengthens its leadership position across the aluminum value chain, enhances cash flow generation, and provides exposure to high-quality, low-cost assets that would be difficult to replicate organically. In the near term, Alcoa should benefit from tight aluminum markets, low global inventories, stronger regional premiums, and increasing customer preference for localized supply chains, although earnings may remain sensitive to commodity price volatility, operational disruptions, and geopolitical developments impacting global supply and demand dynamics. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $40 to $50. Neutral Outlook. 

 

美国铝业公司（AA) 

• 26年第二季度营收：177亿美元，同比增长16.1%，超出市场预期1.3亿美元 

• 26年第二季度非GAAP每股收益（EPS）：1.99美元，超出市场预期0.14美元 

• 26年第三季度指引：预计氧化铝业务板块净贡献约1,000万美元的正向影响，得益于Pinjarra工厂的恢复以及柴油和燃料油价格下降，但部分将被Alumar炼油厂和Juruti矿山的维护工作所抵消。 

• 26财年全年指引：由于Pinjarra工厂中断，公司将全年氧化铝产量指引下调至950万–960万公吨，出货量指引下调至1,150万–1,160万公吨。虽然炼油厂运营已稳定，但公司预计无法完全弥补第二季度损失的产量。此外，公司将全年折旧指引上调至约6.6亿美元，其他企业费用上调至约1.8亿美元。 

• 评论：美国铝业第二季度表现强劲，营收同比增长24%至创纪录的40亿美元，调整后EBITDA增至9.01亿美元，主要得益于铝价上涨、出货量增加以及高附加值产品溢价提升。在多次产能重启后，原铝产量增加3万吨，同时稳定的运营和严格的成本管理帮助铝业务板块实现32.3%的创纪录EBITDA利润率。公司还推进多项战略举措，包括扩建挪威铸造厂、在澳大利亚开发镓生产设施，并宣布收购South32上游铝资产，该交易预计将大幅增加生产能力，产生约9亿美元的净现值协同效应，并立即提升盈利和现金流。尽管Pinjarra炼油厂的运营挑战导致全年氧化铝产量指引下调，但美国铝业资产负债表依然强劲，持有现金14亿美元，本季度自由现金流达4.22亿美元。凭借电气化、电网投资、交通运输、包装及更广泛工业增长带来的需求上升，美国铝业有望受益于铝和氧化铝长期的有利基本面。收购South32上游资产显著增强了其在铝价值链中的领导地位，提升了现金流生成能力，并使其获得难以通过内生方式复制的高质量、低成本资产。短期内，美国铝业将从紧张的铝市场、较低的全球库存、更强的区域溢价以及客户对本地化供应链的偏好中受益，但盈利仍可能对大宗商品价格波动、运营中断以及影响全球供需的地缘政治发展保持敏感。2026年第三季度建议交易区间：40至50美元。中性展望。 

 

Intuitive Surgical Inc. (ISRG) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $2.89B, +18.4% YoY, beat estimates by $60M 

• 2Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.80, beat estimates by $0.30 

• FY26 Guidance: Expect da Vinci procedure growth forecast to remain unchanged at 13.5% to 15.5% and expects growth to come in near the midpoint of that range. Management said the first half of the year ran closer to 15%, but it expects some moderation in the second half because of tougher comparisons and seasonal effects. The company raised its non-GAAP gross margin guidance for 2026 to 68% to 69%, from a prior range of 67.5% to 68.5%, reflecting the removal of tariff pressure, a refund related to previously paid tariffs, product cost reductions and leverage from newer products such as da Vinci 5 and Ion. 

• Comment: Intuitive Surgical delivered another strong quarter, with Q2 revenue rising 19% YoY to US$2.89bn and non-GAAP EPS increasing 28% to US$2.80, driven by continued adoption of its robotic surgery ecosystem. Total procedures grew 16%, including 15% growth in da Vinci procedures and 36% growth in Ion procedures, while the installed base of da Vinci and Ion systems expanded 12% and 21%, respectively, to nearly 13,000 systems worldwide. System placements remained robust, with 468 da Vinci systems and 55 Ion systems installed during the quarter, reflecting strong demand for the new da Vinci 5 platform and growing adoption of SP and Ion technologies. Despite a moderation in U.S. procedure growth due to deferred elective procedures and changes in patient insurance dynamics, international markets remained resilient, with da Vinci procedures growing 20% outside the U.S. The company also continued to invest heavily in innovation, rolling out updates for da Vinci 5, expanding its single-port and lung biopsy platforms, and advancing new robotic applications in gastrointestinal, cardiac, and other disease areas. With a growing installed base, increasing procedure penetration across multiple specialties, and continued innovation across its da Vinci, SP, and Ion platforms, Intuitive Surgical remains well-positioned to sustain long-term growth in robotic-assisted surgery. The company should benefit from deferred U.S. procedures eventually returning, expanding reimbursement support in key international markets such as Japan and India, and broader adoption in cost-sensitive settings through initiatives such as XiR and the Extended Use Program. However, near-term growth could remain tempered by patient affordability concerns in the U.S., competitive and policy pressures in China, and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties that may impact capital spending and elective procedure volumes. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $340 to $380. Neutral Outlook. 

 

直觉外科公司（ISRG) 

• 26年第二季度营收：28.9亿美元，同比增长18.4%，超出市场预期6,000万美元 

• 26年第二季度非GAAP每股收益（EPS）：2.80美元，超出市场预期0.30美元 

• 26财年全年指引：预计达芬奇手术量增长预测维持在13.5%至15.5%不变，并预期实际增长将接近该区间的中值。管理层表示，上半年增长率接近15%，但由于基数效应和季节性因素影响，预计下半年增速将有所放缓。公司将2026年非GAAP毛利率指引从之前的67.5%-68.5%上调至68%-69%，反映出关税压力缓解、此前已支付关税的退款、产品成本降低以及达芬奇5代（da Vinci 5）和Ion等新产品带来的杠杆效应。 

• 评论：直觉外科再次交出强劲季度业绩，第二季度营收同比增长19%至28.9亿美元，非GAAP每股收益增长28%至2.80美元，主要得益于其机器人手术生态系统的持续普及。总手术量增长16%，其中达芬奇手术量增长15%，Ion手术量增长36%；达芬奇和Ion系统的装机量分别增长12%和21%，全球累计装机量接近13,000台。系统投放保持强劲，本季度新增安装468台达芬奇系统和55台Ion系统，反映出市场对新一代达芬奇5代平台的强劲需求，以及单孔（SP）和Ion技术的日益普及。尽管因择期手术推迟和患者保险结构变化导致美国手术量增速放缓，但国际市场表现依然稳健，美国以外地区的达芬奇手术量增长20%。公司继续大力投入创新，推出达芬奇5代的更新版本，扩展单孔手术和肺活检平台，并在胃肠、心脏及其他疾病领域推进新的机器人应用。随着装机基数不断扩大、多专科手术渗透率持续提升，以及达芬奇、SP和Ion平台上的持续创新，直觉外科在机器人辅助手术领域的长期增长前景依然稳固。公司有望受益于美国被推迟的手术最终恢复、日本和印度等关键国际市场的报销支持扩大，以及通过XiR和延长使用计划（Extended Use Program）等举措在成本敏感市场中的更广泛采用。然而，短期增长可能仍受限于美国患者的支付能力担忧、中国的竞争与政策压力，以及可能影响资本支出和择期手术量的宏观经济不确定性。2026年第三季度建议交易区间：340至380美元。中性展望。