United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings
Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR US)
- Shares closed at a high since September 2024 with more volume.
- MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
- Long – Entry 78.0, Target 88.0, Stop 73.0
Dollar General Corp. (DG US)
- Shares closed higher above the 200dEMA with constructive volume. 5dEMA is about to cross the 200dEMA.
- MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
- Long – Entry 91.0, Target 101.0, Stop 86.0
CapitaLand Investment Ltd. (CLI SP)
- Shares closed higher above the 50dEMA with constructive volume.
- MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
- Buy – Entry 2.57, Target 2.75, Stop 2.48
UOL Ltd. (UOL SP)
- Shares closed higher above the 20dEMA. 5dEMA just crossed the 50dEMA.
- MACD is about to turn positive, RSI is constructive.
- Buy – Entry 5.60 Target 5.90, Stop 5.45
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSM)
- 1Q25 Revenue: $25.53B, +35.3% YoY, miss estimates by $190M
- 1Q25 GAAP EPADR: $2.12, beat estimates by $0.06
- 2Q25 Guidance: Expect 2Q25 revenue to be between $28.40bn to $29.20bn, midpoint of $28.8bn above consensus of $27.22bn; Expect gross profit margin to be between 57.0% to 59.0%; Expect operating profit margin to be between 47.0% to 49.0%; Expect capital expenditure for this year to be between $38bn and $42bn.
- Comment: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) delivered stronger-than-expected earnings and issued an upbeat outlook for the year, driven by continued robust demand for AI-related applications. The company noted that it has not observed any shift in customer behaviour despite ongoing uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs. Looking ahead, TSMC expects solid growth to be underpinned by its advanced 3-nanometer and 5-nanometer process technologies. On the trade front, Taiwan currently faces a blanket 10% tariff imposed by the Trump administration, which could escalate to 32% following the expiration of the President’s 90-day pause on “reciprocal tariffs,” barring a bilateral agreement. In response to these trade tensions, TSMC revealed plans to invest an additional $100 billion in the U.S., supplementing the $65bn it committed last month to the construction of three U.S.-based fabrication plants. 2Q25 recommended trading range: $130 to $170. Neutral Outlook.
台积电 (TSM)
- 25年第一季营收：255.3亿美元，同比增长35.3%，低于预期1.9亿美元
- 25年第一季GAAP每股收益：2.12美元，超出预期0.06美元
- 25年第二季指引：预计25年第二季度营收在284.0亿美元至292.0亿美元之间，中值为288.0亿美元，高于市场普遍预期的272.2亿美元；预计毛利率在57.0%至59.0%之间；预计营业利润率在47.0%至49.0%之间；预计今年的资本支出在380亿美元至420亿美元之间。
- 短评：台积电公布了强于预期的盈利，并发布了乐观的全年展望，这得益于人工智能相关应用的持续强劲需求。该公司指出，尽管美国关税持续存在不确定性，但尚未观察到客户行为发生任何变化。展望未来，台积电预计其先进的3纳米和5纳米制程技术将支撑稳健增长。在贸易方面，台湾目前面临特朗普政府施加的10%全面关税，在总统暂停“对等关税”的90天期限到期后，如果未能达成双边协议，关税可能会升至32%。为应对这些贸易紧张局势，台积电透露计划在美国追加投资1,000亿美元，此前一个月已承诺投资650亿美元用于在美国建设三座晶圆厂。25年第二季建议交易区间：130美元至170美元。中性前景。
American Express Co (AXP)
- 1Q25 Revenue: $16.97B, +7.4% YoY, beat estimates by $40M
- 1Q25 GAAP EPS: $3.64, beat estimates by $0.17
- FY25 Guidance: Expect revenue growth to be between 8.0% to 10.0%, midpoint of 9.0% above consensus of 8.14%; Expect GAAP EPS to be between $15.0 to $15.5, midpoint of $15.25 below consensus of $15.26.
- Comment: American Express posted strong quarterly results, driven by resilient spending from its affluent customer base, which appeared largely unfazed by concerns over a potential economic slowdown. The company’s long-standing strategy of targeting high-income consumers—through a combination of rewards and exclusive benefits—has continued to provide a buffer against broader macroeconomic weakness. Amex noted that cardmember spending, credit performance, and demand for its premium offerings remained robust across its customer segments. Spending patterns through the first half of April have been consistent with first-quarter trends, underscoring sustained consumer strength. Nevertheless, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to a near three-year low, suggesting potential headwinds for consumer spending in the second quarter amid ongoing economic uncertainty. 2Q25 recommended trading range: $225 to $275. Neutral Outlook.
美国运通(AXP)
- 25年第一季度营收：169.7亿美元，同比增长7.4%，超出预期4,000万美元
- 25年第一季度GAAP每股收益：3.64美元，超出预期0.17美元
- 25财年指引：预计营收增长在8.0%至10.0%之间，中值9.0%，高于市场普遍预期的8.14%；预计GAAP每股收益在15.0美元至15.5美元之间，中值15.25美元，低于市场普遍预期的15.26美元。
- 短评：美国运通公布了强劲的季度业绩，这得益于其富裕客户群体展现出的韧性消费，这些客户似乎很大程度上并未受到潜在经济放缓担忧的影响。该公司长期以来通过奖励和专属福利相结合的方式锁定高收入消费者的策略，持续为应对更广泛的宏观经济疲软提供了缓冲。美国运通指出，其客户群体的持卡消费、信贷表现以及对其高端产品的需求在其各个客户群体中依然强劲。四月上半月的消费模式与第一季度的趋势一致，突显了持续的消费者实力。然而，密歇根大学消费者信心指数跌至近三年来的低点，暗示在持续的经济不确定性下，第二季度消费者支出可能面临潜在的不利因素。25年第二季度建议交易区间：225美元至275美元。中性前景。
D.R. Horton Inc (DHI)
- 2Q25 Revenue: $7.73B, -15.1% YoY, miss estimates by $300M
- 2Q25 GAAP EPS: $2.58, miss estimates by $0.07
- 3Q25 Guidance: Expect revenue of $8.4B-$8.9B with 22,000-22,500 home closings and a home sales gross margin of 21-21.5%
- FY25 Guidance: Lowered forecast to revenue of $33.3B to $34.8B and homes closed by homebuilding operations of 85,000 homes to 87,000 homes. Reiterate income tax rate of approximately 24.0% and dividend payments of approximately $500M.
- Dividend distribution: Declared $0.40/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous, payable 9 May; for shareholders of record 2 May
- Comment: D.R. Horton reported Q2 results that came in below analysts’ expectations, posting earnings of US$2.58 per share on US$7.7bn in revenue. The company saw a 15% YoY decline in net sales orders and homebuilding revenue, driven by ongoing affordability challenges and cautious consumer sentiment. Gross margin on home sales declined slightly to 21.8%, reflecting increased use of incentives to support demand. Despite these pressures, the company remains profitable, with improving construction cycle times and low cancellation rates, signaling resilient buyer commitment. The company also continues to benefit from its rental operations and strategic lot development partnership with Forestar. D.R. Horton has increased its capital return efforts, repurchasing US$2.4bn in shares year-to-date and planning US$4bn in buybacks for the full fiscal year. Looking ahead, D.R. Horton expects consolidated Q3 revenues between US$8.4bn to US$8.9bn and full-year revenues of US$33.3bn to US$34.8bn. While the company plans to remain flexible with pricing, incentives, and inventory levels to sustain sales momentum, it may continue to face headwinds from macroeconomic volatility, trade policy uncertainty, and elevated inflation, all of which could weigh on consumer housing demand. 3Q25 recommended trading range: $115 to $130. Neutral Outlook.
霍顿房屋 (DHI)
- 25财年第二季度营收：77.3亿美元，同比下降15.1%，低于预期3亿美元
- 25财年第二季度 GAAP每股收益：2.58美元，低于预期0.07美元
- 25财年第三季度指引：预计营收为84亿至89亿美元，房屋交割量为22000至22500套，房屋销售毛利率为21%至21.5%
- 25财年指引：下调营收预期至333亿至348亿美元，房屋建造业务的房屋交割量下调至85000至87000套。重申所得税率约为24.0%，股息支付约为5亿美元。
- 股息分配：宣布派发每股0.40美元的季度股息，与此前持平，将于5月9日支付，股权登记日为5月2日。
- 简评：霍顿房屋公布的第二季度业绩低于分析师预期，营收77亿美元，每股收益2.58美元。受持续的支付能力挑战和谨慎的消费者情绪影响，公司净销售订单和房屋建造收入同比下降15%。房屋销售毛利率小幅下降至21.8%，反映出为支持需求而增加了激励措施的使用。尽管面临这些压力，公司仍然盈利，建筑周期缩短，取消率较低，表明购房者意愿坚挺。公司还继续受益于其租赁业务以及与Forestar的战略性土地开发合作。霍顿房屋加大了资本回报力度，年初至今已回购24亿美元的股票，并计划在整个财年回购40亿美元。展望未来，霍顿房屋预计第三季度综合营收在84亿至89亿美元之间，全年营收在333亿至348亿美元之间。虽然公司计划在定价、激励措施和库存水平方面保持灵活性以维持销售势头，但仍可能继续面临宏观经济波动、贸易政策不确定性和高通胀带来的不利因素，所有这些都可能对消费者的住房需求构成压力。25财年第三季度建议交易区间：115美元至130美元。中性前景。
Netflix Inc (NFLX)
- 1Q25 Revenue: $10.54B, +12.5% YoY, beat estimates by $40M
- 1Q25 GAAP EPS: $6.61, beat estimates by $0.95
- 2Q25 Guidance: Expect revenue of $11.04B, above the analyst consensus of $10.90B.
- FY25 Guidance: Reaffirmed revenue forecast of $43.5B and $44.5B
- Comment: Netflix posted strong Q1 results, beating both revenue and EPS expectations with US$10.54bn in revenue and US$6.61 EPS. The company reaffirmed its full-year revenue guidance of US$43.5bn to US$44.5bn, driven by continued subscriber growth, increased pricing, and a doubling of ad revenue. Additionally, it reported no significant consumer impact from economic uncertainty or tariffs, citing resilience and the success of its lower-cost, ad-supported tier, which accounted for 55% of new sign-ups in available markets. Netflix emphasized its value as affordable home entertainment during tough economic times, supported by global content hits and strong user retention. Despite a volatile macroeconomic environment and global trade tensions arising, we believe that Netflix is well-positioned to maintain its growth trajectory through strategic pricing, global content expansion, and its scalable ad-supported model. With demand remaining strong across international markets and continued content releases, the company expects to continue growing its subscriber base and revenue, regardless of economic cycles. 2Q25 recommended trading range: $970 to $1,040. Positive Outlook.
奈飞公司 (NFLX)
- 25财年第一季度营收：105.4亿美元，同比增长12.5%，超出预期4,000万美元
- 25财年第一季度 GAAP每股收益：6.61美元，超出预期0.95美元
- 25财年第二季度指引：预计营收为110.4亿美元，高于分析师普遍预期的109亿美元。
- 25财年指引：重申营收预期为435亿至445亿美元。
- 简评：奈飞公布了强劲的第一季度业绩，营收105.4亿美元，每股收益6.61美元，均超出预期。公司重申了全年营收指引为435亿至445亿美元，这得益于用户数量的持续增长、价格上涨以及广告收入翻番。此外，该公司表示，经济不确定性或关税对其消费者没有产生重大影响，并指出其低成本、广告支持的会员模式表现出了韧性，该模式占可用市场新增注册用户的55%。奈飞强调，在经济困难时期，凭借全球热门内容和强大的用户留存率，其作为经济实惠的家庭娱乐方式的价值。尽管存在波动的宏观经济环境和全球贸易紧张局势，我们认为，通过战略性定价、全球内容扩张及其可扩展的广告支持模式，奈飞有望保持其增长轨迹。随着国际市场需求依然强劲以及持续的内容发布，该公司预计无论经济周期如何，都将继续扩大其用户基础和收入。25财年第二季度建议交易区间：970美元至1040美元。积极前景。
