Technical Analysis: 20 October 2026

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM)

• 3Q26 Revenue: US$46.72B, +41.2% YoY, beat estimates by US$1.10B.

• 3Q26 EPS: US$4.60 TIFRS diluted EPS per ADR, +57.5% YoY, beat estimates by US$0.15.

• 4Q26 Guidance: Revenue US$52.3–54.3B, +14.1% sequentially at the midpoint; gross margin 65–67% and operating margin 56.5–58.5%, assuming US$1=NT$31.8. The company did not provide EPS guidance.

• FY26 Guidance: FY2026 revenue growth in US dollars raised to around 44%, from slightly above 40%. Capital expenditure unchanged at US$60-64bn. No full-year EPS guidance provided.

• Dividend/Share Buyback: Q3 capex US$13.84bn; operating cash flow NT$919.77bn; free cash flow NT$476.56bn. Previously approved second-quarter 2026 cash dividend NT$7.00 per ordinary share: ex-dividend 10 December 2026, Taiwan payment 7 January 2027. No new buyback announced in the earnings materials.

• Comment: We maintain a Positive outlook and favour accumulating TSMC on weakness. The quarter supports an earnings expansion driven by leading-edge demand rather than an isolated accounting benefit. Dollar revenue exceeded consensus by 2.4%, while ADR earnings beat by 3.4%. High-performance computing accounted for 68% of sales, and the growing contribution from 2nm adds another source of expansion beyond the existing advanced-node business. The important test is the conversion of that growth into sustainable returns. Gross margin declined sequentially as 2nm ramp costs increased, and the fourth-quarter midpoint points to further modest dilution. Overseas capacity adds another cost burden. We regard these as manageable investment costs while advanced-node demand remains strong, but would reassess if utilisation weakens or margin erosion persists after production matures. Earnings quality was encouraging: operating income rose 14.3% sequentially even as non-operating gains fell following the absence of the previous quarter’s Vanguard share gains. This supports the underlying profit trajectory. The higher full-year growth outlook and strong fourth-quarter sales guide also provide better near-term visibility, although heavy capital spending leaves execution and cash returns central to the thesis. The ADR closed at US$422.25 on 15 October, down 1.80%, after trading as low as US$407.13. We see the pullback as an opportunity to build exposure gradually, as execution catches up with demand. The principal risks are slower AI infrastructure spending, overseas manufacturing costs and geopolitical restrictions; sustained leading-edge growth remains the strongest support for our positive view. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$410–475. Positive Outlook.

台积电 (TSM)

• 26财年第三季度营收：467.2亿美元，同比增长41.2%，超出预期11.0亿美元。

• 26财年第三季度每股收益：按台湾认可的国际财务报告准则，每份ADR摊薄每股收益4.60美元，同比增长57.5%，超出预期0.15美元。

• 26财年第四季度指引：预计营收523–543亿美元，中值环比增长14.1%；毛利率65%–67%，营业利润率56.5%–58.5%，假设1美元兑31.8新台币。公司未提供每股收益指引。

• 26财年全年指引：2026年美元营收增长预期由略高于40%上调至约44%；资本开支维持600亿至640亿美元。公司未提供全年每股盈利指引。

• 股息与回购：第三季资本开支138.4亿美元，经营现金流9,197.7亿新台币，自由现金流4,765.6亿新台币。此前批准的2026年第二季股息为每普通股7.00新台币，2026年12月10日除息，台湾普通股派息日为2027年1月7日。本次业绩材料未公布新的股份回购计划。

• 短评：我们维持正面展望，倾向趁股价回落逐步吸纳台积电。本季表现支持盈利增长主要来自先进制程需求，而非单次会计收益。美元营收较市场预期高2.4%，ADR盈利高3.4%。高性能计算占营收68%，2纳米贡献上升，也为既有先进制程业务以外的增长增添动力。 关键在于能否将增长转化为可持续回报。2纳米量产初期成本增加，令毛利率环比回落，第四季指引中值亦反映轻微摊薄将持续。海外产能还会增加成本负担。只要先进制程需求保持强劲，我们认为这些投资成本可控；若产能利用率转弱，或量产成熟后利润率仍持续受压，则需要重新评估。 盈利质量令人鼓舞：上季世界先进股份相关收益未再出现，营业外收益下降，但营业利润仍环比增长14.3%，支持核心盈利向上。全年增长预期上调及强劲的第四季营收指引，提高短期业绩可见度。不过，资本开支庞大，执行能力及现金回报仍是投资逻辑的核心。 ADR于10月15日收报422.25美元，下跌1.80%，盘中低见407.13美元。我们将回落视为逐步建立持仓的机会，等待执行能力逐步匹配需求。主要风险为AI基础设施投资放缓、海外制造成本及地缘政治限制；先进制程持续增长仍是我们维持正面观点的最主要依据。 26财年第四季度建议交易区间：410–475美元。正面前景。

The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW)

• 3Q26 Revenue: US$7.171B, +16.9% YoY, missed estimates by US$12.36M.

• 3Q26 EPS: US$1.69 adjusted diluted EPS, +29.0% YoY, beat estimates by US$0.03.

• 4Q26 Guidance: 4Q26 revenue/EPS guidance not provided. NIM now expected to expand 25–30bp YoY; summer scenario had indicated 3.25–3.30% NIM. Lending/trading momentum and seasonal cash inflows expected to continue.

• FY26 Guidance: FY26 revenue growth/NIM now toward the lower end of prior 17.5–18.5%/3.00–3.10% ranges. Adjusted expense growth also at low end of prior 9.5–10.5%; approximately 800bp positive operating leverage. FY26 EPS guidance not provided.

• Dividend/Share Buyback: Common share repurchases US$3.9bn YTD through September; net preferred redemption US$0.6bn YTD. Regular quarterly dividend US$0.32/share, paid 28 August 2026 (declared 23 July). No new dividend declaration identified in the Q3 results. Adjusted Tier 1 leverage ratio 7.0%.

• Comment: Schwab’s record quarter supports a positive medium-term view, but the lower-end revenue and margin outlook limits the immediate earnings catalyst. Core net new assets of US$190.4bn and managed-investing inflows demonstrate that growth extends beyond buoyant markets. These assets should support future fee income and lending opportunities as clients consolidate more activity on the platform. Profit growth also reflects operating improvement. Revenue increased faster than adjusted expenses, expanding the adjusted pretax margin by approximately 350bp to 54.8%. Net interest revenue, asset-management fees and trading revenue all grew at double-digit rates. Adjusted EPS excludes transaction-related costs, although GAAP EPS also rose approximately 29%, indicating that earnings momentum is not confined to the adjusted measure. The main constraint is funding. Lending has outpaced deposit growth, requiring greater use of alternative funding sources and delaying margin expansion. Management consequently expects annual revenue growth and NIM at the lower end of its summer ranges. This weakens the case for extrapolating strong client growth directly into near-term earnings upgrades. Trading activity and market-linked fees also remain exposed to investor sentiment. Our outlook is positive, with accumulation on weakness preferable to chasing the headline EPS beat. Sustained asset gathering, efficiency and capital flexibility support the franchise, while deposit growth and funding costs will determine the pace of earnings improvement. Shares fell 2.9% in premarket trading on 15 October; that was an early reaction, not the closing move. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$90–110. Positive Outlook.

嘉信理财 (SCHW)

• 26财年第三季度营收：2026年第三季净营收71.71亿美元，同比增长16.89%；较市场预期低1,236万美元（预期约71.83亿美元）。

• 26财年第三季度每股收益：调整后摊薄每股收益1.69美元，同比增长29.0%，超出预期0.03美元。

• 26财年第四季度指引：未提供第四季营收或每股收益指引。现预计净息差同比扩大25–30个基点；夏季原情景预计净息差3.25–3.30%。预计贷款、交易动能及季节性现金流入延续。

• 26财年全年指引：全年营收增速及净息差现接近原17.5–18.5%及3.00–3.10%区间下限。调整后费用增速亦接近原9.5–10.5%区间下限；预计正经营杠杆约800个基点。未提供全年每股收益指引。

• 股息与回购：截至9月年内普通股回购39亿美元，优先股净赎回6亿美元。季度普通股息每股0.32美元，7月23日宣派并于8月28日支付；第三季业绩中未发现新股息宣派。调整后一级杠杆率7.0%。

• 短评：嘉信理财本季业绩创纪录，支持中期正面判断，但营收及净息差展望靠近原区间下限，削弱了短期盈利催化。核心净新增资产1,904亿美元及管理型投资净流入表明，增长并非仅由市场上涨推动。随着客户将更多活动集中至平台，这些资产应支持未来收费收入和贷款机会。 盈利增长亦反映经营改善。营收增速高于调整后费用，推动调整后税前利润率扩大约350个基点至54.8%。净利息收入、资产管理费用和交易收入均实现双位数增长。调整后每股收益剔除了交易相关成本，但GAAP每股收益同样增长约29%，表明盈利动能并非只体现在调整后口径。 主要约束来自资金来源。贷款增速超过存款，增加了对其他融资渠道的依赖，延缓净息差扩大。管理层因此预计全年营收增速和净息差接近夏季区间下限。这意味着，不能将强劲客户增长直接外推为短期盈利预测上调。交易活动及与市场挂钩的费用收入也仍受投资者情绪影响。 我们维持正面展望，倾向逢低吸纳，而非追逐每股收益超预期。持续资产流入、效率提升和资本灵活性支持业务前景，但存款增长和融资成本将决定盈利改善速度。10月15日盘前股价下跌2.9%；这是早盘反应，并非收盘变动。 26财年第四季度建议交易区间：90–110美元。正面前景。

Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. (IBKR)

• 3Q26 Revenue: US$1.872B adjusted net revenue, +16.3% YoY, approximately US$12M above estimates.

• 3Q26 EPS: US$0.67 adjusted diluted EPS, +17.5% YoY, broadly in line with estimates.

• 4Q26 Guidance: No numerical 4Q26 revenue or EPS guidance provided. Management expects most of the September rate-hike benefit to reach NII in Q4; no prior quarterly numerical target was revised.

• FY26 Guidance: The company did not provide FY26 revenue or EPS guidance.

• Dividend/Share Buyback: Quarterly cash dividend raised 71.4% from US$0.0875 to US$0.15/share (US$0.60 annualised), payable 14 December 2026 to holders of record 1 December. Total equity US$23.3bn; no long-term debt. No new share-buyback programme announced in the results.

• Comment: Interactive Brokers delivered solid growth, but the result was closer to expectations than the strength in customer accounts alone might suggest. Adjusted EPS increased 18% to US$0.67 and essentially matched consensus, while adjusted net revenue rose 16% to US$1.87bn. The core earnings comparison excludes currency-diversification and investment-marking effects, making it more useful than extrapolating GAAP EPS of US$0.69. The main driver remains balance growth. Customer accounts increased 35% to 5.58 million and customer equity rose 27%, expanding the base for interest and transaction income. Net interest income increased 19%, while commissions grew 12%. However, commission growth included US$30m of regulatory fees passed through to customers, which also increased costs without adding profit. Total DARTs grew 18% year on year but fell 11% sequentially; annualised cleared DARTs per account declined 14% year on year. Growth therefore relies increasingly on acquiring customers and assets rather than higher activity from each account. The 78% adjusted pretax margin remains exceptional, although below 79% a year earlier. A 71% dividend increase signals confidence, while management expects additional Q4 NII benefit from September rate hikes. Our outlook is positive, supported by structural account growth, but valuation leaves limited tolerance for weaker trading. At 7:59pm ET on 15 October, shares were US$85.70, down 0.38% after hours; the earlier US$86.03 close preceded the release. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$79–92. Positive Outlook.

盈透证券 (IBKR)

• 26财年第三季度营收：调整后净收入18.72亿美元，同比增长16.3%，较约18.6亿美元的市场预期高约1,200万美元。

• 26财年第三季度每股收益：调整后摊薄每股收益0.67美元，同比增长17.5%，基本符合市场预期。

• 26财年第四季度指引：公司未提供2026年第四季度收入或每股盈利的量化指引。管理层预计9月加息的大部分净利息收入效益将在第四季度体现；未修订此前的季度量化目标。

• 26财年全年指引：公司未提供26财年全年收入或每股收益指引。

• 股息与回购：季度现金股息由每股0.0875美元提高71.4%至0.15美元，年化0.60美元，将于2026年12月14日支付予12月1日在册股东。总权益233亿美元，无长期债务。业绩公告未宣布新的股份回购计划。

• 短评：盈透证券录得稳健增长，但相对于客户账户的强劲扩张，实际业绩更接近市场预期。经调整每股盈利上升18%至0.67美元，基本符合预期；经调整净收入增长16%至18.7亿美元。经调整盈利剔除了货币多元化策略及投资市值变动的影响，较直接外推0.69美元的GAAP每股盈利更能反映核心表现。 主要动力仍是客户资金规模扩张。客户账户增加35%至558万，客户权益上升27%，扩大了利息及交易收入基础。净利息收入增长19%，佣金收入增长12%。不过，佣金增幅包含向客户转嫁的3,000万美元监管费用，该项目同时增加成本，不带来额外利润。日均创收交易量同比增加18%，但环比下降11%；每个已清算账户的年化日均创收交易量同比下降14%。因此，增长日益依赖新客户及资产流入，而非现有账户交易更频繁。 经调整税前利润率达78%，仍然出色，但低于去年的79%。股息提高71%体现管理层信心，9月加息也预计在第四季度进一步支持净利息收入。我们维持正面展望，看好账户结构性增长，但较高估值意味着交易转弱的容错空间有限。10月15日美东时间晚上7时59分，股价盘后报85.70美元，下跌0.38%；此前86.03美元的收盘价形成于业绩发布前。 26财年第四季度建议交易区间：79–92美元。正面前景。

BlackRock, Inc. (BLK)

• 3Q26 Revenue: US$7.75B, +19.1% YoY, beat estimates by US$323.89M.

• 3Q26 EPS: US$15.93 adjusted, +38% YoY, beat estimates by US$1.63.

• 4Q26 Guidance: The company did not provide 4Q26 revenue or EPS guidance. Management expects an approximately 25% tax rate and plans at least US$550M of share repurchases.

• FY26 Guidance: The company did not provide FY26 revenue or EPS guidance. Full-year general and administrative expenses are expected to increase by a mid-single-digit percentage. Management remains committed to low- to mid-teens technology annual contract value growth over the long term.

• Dividend/Share Buyback: Repurchased US$550M of shares in 3Q26, up from US$450M in 2Q26. The quarterly dividend remains US$5.73/share. Management plans at least US$550M of 4Q26 repurchases.

• Comment: This was a strong operating quarter, with organic growth and margin expansion supporting a positive outlook. Net inflows of US$205B lifted assets under management to US$15.49T, while annualised organic base fee growth reached 11%. The breadth across ETFs, systematic equities, private markets and cash suggests that growth is broader than a passive benefit from rising equity prices. Base fees and securities lending revenue increased 20%, strengthening the recurring earnings base. Technology services and subscription revenue rose 14% to US$588M, with annual contract value up 12%. These revenues add diversification and can support a higher-quality earnings mix as Aladdin and multi-product solutions expand. Adjusted operating income increased 27%, faster than revenue, and the operating margin rose 320 basis points to 47.8%, demonstrating cost discipline despite continued investment. The 38% adjusted EPS increase nevertheless overstates the improvement in recurring operations. Higher nonoperating income and a lower share count contributed, including US$164M of investment gains largely linked to Securitize and Circle. Performance fees are also less predictable than management fees, while private-market expansion brings fundraising and integration risks. Sustainable upside therefore depends on maintaining base-fee growth and margins rather than repeating investment gains. Shares closed at US$1,073.79 on 14 October, up 0.72%, after a stronger initial reaction. The modest closing gain leaves room for a favourable earnings reassessment if flows persist. Watch organic fee growth, private-market fundraising, Aladdin contracts and the conversion of inflows into fees. Our positive call rests on a broader franchise delivering growth and operating leverage, with market declines and weaker performance fees the main near-term risks. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$956–1,211. Positive Outlook.

贝莱德 (BLK)

• 26财年第三季度营收：77.5亿美元，同比增长19.1%，超出预期3.2389亿美元。

• 26财年第三季度每股收益：调整后每股收益15.93美元，同比增长38%，超出预期1.63美元。

• 26财年第四季度指引：公司未提供第四季度营收或每股收益指引。管理层预计税率约25%，并计划至少回购5.50亿美元股票。

• 26财年全年指引：公司未提供全年营收或每股收益指引。全年一般及行政费用预计增长中个位数百分比；长期仍致力于实现科技业务年度合同价值低至中双位数增长。

• 短评：本季度经营强劲，有机增长及利润率扩张支持正面判断。净流入2,050亿美元，使管理资产达到15.49万亿美元，年化有机基础费增长为11%。ETF、系统化股票、私募市场及现金业务均有贡献，显示增长并非仅被动受益于股市上涨。基础费及证券借贷收入增长20%，增强经常性盈利基础。科技服务及订阅收入增长14%至5.88亿美元，年度合同价值增长12%。随着Aladdin及多产品方案扩张，这些收入有助于多元化及提升盈利质量。调整后经营利润增长27%，快于营收；经营利润率扩张320个基点至47.8%，体现持续投资下的成本纪律。不过，调整后EPS增长38%，高于可持续经营改善幅度；非经营收入增加及股数减少均有贡献，其中1.64亿美元投资收益主要与Securitize及Circle有关。绩效费也不如管理费稳定，私募市场扩张带来募资及整合风险。因此，持续上行依赖基础费及利润率，而非重复投资收益。10月14日股价收于1,073.79美元，上涨0.72%，低于初期较强反应。若资金流持续，有限的收盘涨幅为盈利重估留下空间。后续重点是有机费用增长、私募募资、Aladdin合同及流入转化为费用的进度。正面判断基于更广泛业务的增长及经营杠杆，市场下跌和绩效费走弱则是主要短期风险。 26财年第四季度建议交易区间：956–1,211美元。正面前景。

• 股息与回购：本季度回购5.50亿美元股票，高于第二季度的4.50亿美元。季度股息维持每股5.73美元；管理层计划第四季度至少回购5.50亿美元。