Technical Analysis – 2 October 2024

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Alibaba Group Holdings Ltd. (BABA US)

• Shares closed at a 52-week high a surge in volume.
• MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
• Long – Entry 110 Target 120, Stop 105

PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD US)

• Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with constructive volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 200dEMA and the 20dEMA is about to cross the 50dEMA.
• MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
• Long – Entry 144 Target 156, Stop 138

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Samudera Shipping Line Ltd. (SAMU SP)

• Shares closed at a high since Jul 2024 with a surge in volume. 5dEMA is about to cross the 50dEMA and 200dEMA.
• MACD is positive, RSI isconstructive.
• Long – Entry 0.860, Target 0.960, Stop 0.810

Fraser and Neave Ltd. (FNN SP)

• Shares closed at a 52-week high.
• MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
• Long – Entry 1.35 Target 1.43, Stop 1.31

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Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (981 HK)

• Shares closed at an 8-month high above the 5dEMA with a jump in volume.
• MACD is constructive, while RSI is at an overbought level.
• Long – Entry 20.0, Target 21.8, Stop 19.1

Hua Hong Semiconductor Ltd (1347 HK)

• Shares closed at a 2-month high above the 200dEMA with rising volume.
• MACD is constructive, while RSI is at an overbought level.
• Long – Entry 20.2, Target 22.0, Stop 19.3

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Nike Inc (NKE)

• 1Q25 Revenue: $11.6B, -10.4% YoY, miss estimates by $50M
• 1Q25 GAAP EPS: $0.70, beat estimates by $0.18
• 2Q25 Guidance: Expect revenue to be down between 8% and 10% and gross margin to be down about 1.5 percentage points, vs the 6.9% decline expected by analysts.
• FY25 Guidance: Withdrew annual revenue forecast (previous full-year annual revenue forecast of mid-single digit percentage range decline) and postponed its investor day, for its new CEO to evaluate its current strategies. The impending CEO change will be effective 14 October.
• Comment: While Nike’s first-quarter earnings exceeded expectations at US$0.70 per share, revenue fell short at US$11.59bn, down 10% YoY. The company’s gross margin improved to 45.4%, but profits dropped nearly 28% and wholesale revenue declined 8%. Nike has been criticized for lagging in innovation, focusing too heavily on direct sales and legacy franchises like Air Force 1s, Dunks, and Air Jordans, which saw a significant decline in the first quarter. Nike’s wholesale relationships, damaged by its direct-to-consumer focus, are now being rebuilt. Additionally, China’s economic challenges have affected the region’s performance, though Q1 revenue slightly exceeded expectations. Nike has withdrawn its full-year guidance and postponed its investor day due to its impending CEO change in October. The decision provides flexibility for the new CEO to evaluate strategies and reposition the business for FY26 and beyond. Nike had already lowered its FY25 guidance, with expectations of mid-single-digit sales declines. For the current quarter, Nike forecasts an 8% to 10% revenue drop and a 1.5 percentage point decline in gross margin, missing analyst expectations. The company hopes for improvement in sales following the recent Chinese stimulus measures. Despite these challenges, the athletic footwear market is projected to grow, albeit slowly, as consumer sentiment gradually improves and spending potential increases in key markets like the US and China. 2Q25 recommended trading range: $80 to $90. Neutral Outlook.

耐克 (NKE)

• 25财年第一季营收：11.6亿美元，同比增幅15.3%，逊预期5,000万美元
• 25财年第一季GAAP每股盈利：0.7美元，超预期0.18美元
• 25财年第二季指引：预计营收将下降8%至10%，毛利率将下降约1.5个百分点，而分析师预计的降幅为6.9%。
• 25财年指引：取消了年度营收预测（此前的全年营收预测为中位数百分比下降），并推迟了投资者日，以便新任首席执行官评估公司当前的战略。即将到来的CEO变动将于10月14日生效。
• 短评：虽然耐克第一季度每股收益超过预期0.70美元，但收入低于预期，为115.9亿美元，同比下降10%。该公司毛利率上升至45.4%，但利润下降近28%，批发收入下降8%。耐克一直被批评在创新方面滞后，过于关注直销和传统特许经营，如Air Force 15、Dunks和Air Jordan，这些特许经营在第一季度出现了显著下滑。耐克的批发关系曾因其专注于直接面向消费者而受损，现在正在重建。此外，中国的经济挑战也影响了该地区的业绩，尽管第一季度的收入略高于预期。由于10月份即将更换首席执行官，耐克撤回了全年指引，并推迟了投资者日。这一决定为新任首席执行官评估战略和重新定位26财年及以后的业务提供了灵活性。耐克已经下调了其25财年的预期，预计销售额将出现个位数的下降。耐克预计，当前季度营收将下降8%至10%，毛利率将下降1.5个百分点，低于分析师的预期。该公司希望在中国最近的经济刺激措施之后，销售额有所改善。尽管存在这些挑战，但随着消费者信心逐渐改善，以及美国和中国等主要市场的消费潜力增加，运动鞋市场预计将增长，尽管速度缓慢。25财年第二季度建议交易区间：80至90美元。中性前景。