Technical Analysis: 17 August 2026

JD.com, Inc. (JD) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $51.05B, -2.9% YoY, beat estimates by $310M 

• 2Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.93, beat estimates by $0.10 

• FY26 Guidance: Management expects electronics and home-appliance sales growth to improve materially in 2H26 as comparisons ease, with sales momentum already improving in June. Food-delivery losses also narrowed, providing a potentially significant earnings tailwind into 2H26. 

• Dividends/Share Buybacks: JD’s existing US$5B repurchase authorization runs through August 2027. It repurchased US$631M of stock in 1Q26, leaving US$1.4B under the authorization at March-end. JD also paid its US$1.00-per-ADS FY25 annual dividend in April 

• Comment: This was a better-than-feared quarter. The headline revenue decline looks weak, but revenue still beat expectations and adjusted profit increased ~20%. More importantly, the expensive food-delivery expansion appears to be moving past peak losses, while JD Retail remains profitable and the extended 618 promotion supported better operating leverage. The key debate is whether JD can return to top-line growth without restarting aggressive subsidies. China consumption remains weak, while electronics and appliance demand continues to face pressure from a high comparison base and higher raw-material costs. Management’s expectation for a stronger 2H26 therefore needs to translate into actual retail acceleration. JD ADRs fell about 3.5% following the results despite the beat. The principal variables are electronics/appliance recovery, food-delivery loss reduction, core retail margins and Chinese consumer demand. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $25 to $35. Neutral Outlook. 

 

京东集团（JD) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：510.5亿美元，同比下降2.9%，超出预期3.1亿美元 

• 26财年第二季度非公认会计准则每股收益：0.93美元，超出预期0.10美元 

• 26财年下半年展望：管理层预计26年下半年电子与家电销售增长将显著改善（高基数压力缓解），且6月份销售动能已现好转；外卖业务亏损持续收窄，有望为下半年带来显著的盈利顺风。 

• 股息与回购：现有50亿美元回购授权有效期至2027年8月。一季度已回购6.31亿美元，截至3月底剩余额度14亿美元；4月已派发25财年每ADS 1.00美元的年度股息。 

• 短评：本季度表现“好于市场悲观预期”。尽管表观营收同比下滑，但不仅超出华尔街预期，且调整后利润同比大增约20%。更积极的战略信号在于，前期投入巨大的外卖业务已度过亏损峰值，同时核心京东零售保持稳健盈利，延长的“618”大促也展现了较好的运营杠杆与成本管控能力。然而，核心争议在于：京东能否在不重启激进补贴战的前提下，恢复营收的正增长。当前中国宏观消费依然偏弱，电子与家电等核心品类仍受制高基数与原材料成本上涨的双重压力。管理层对下半年回暖的预期，仍需实际零售数据的加速来验证。财报后京东ADR下跌约3.5%，反映出在宏观消费疲软背景下，市场对“利润改善但营收萎缩”的定价依然谨慎，资金更渴望看到实质性的Top-line（顶层营收）拐点。后续关键变量包括：（1）电子与家电品类的复苏节奏与以旧换新政策的拉动效果；（2）外卖等新业务减亏的持续性；（3）核心零售利润率的稳定性；（4）中国整体消费需求的宏观回暖情况。京东凭借强大的自营供应链与物流壁垒，在行业价格战中展现了极强的盈利韧性，股东回报（回购+分红）也具备吸引力。但短期估值突破仍需依赖宏观消费环境的实质性好转。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：25美元至35美元。中性前景。 

 

Tapestry, Inc. (TPR) 

• 4Q26 Revenue: $1.88B, +9.3% YoY, beat estimates by $10M 

• 4Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.32, beat estimates by $0.04 

• FY27 Guidance: FY27 revenue guided to $8.4B–$8.5B, implying mid-single-digit growth, while EPS is expected at $7.80–$7.90. The revenue outlook was slightly below Street expectations and implies a meaningful deceleration from FY26’s growth rate. 

• Dividends/Share Buybacks: Raised the quarterly dividend 16% to $0.4625 per share. Management also plans approximately $1.35B of FY27 share repurchases under its existing authorization. 

• Comment: The reported quarter was strong, but the market is questioning peak Coach momentum. Coach continued to deliver double-digit growth, supported by successful products such as Tabby and Brooklyn and strong traction with younger consumers. International performance was also robust, with Greater China and Europe growing substantially faster than North America. The concern is FY27 growth normalization. Coach’s 15% quarterly growth was slightly below expectations, Kate Spade remains structurally weak, and management expects revenue growth to decelerate later in FY27 amid tariffs and macro uncertainty. With Coach responsible for most of Tapestry’s earnings momentum, even modest deceleration is receiving an outsized valuation response. Shares fell 16.5% despite the earnings beat. The principal variables are Coach comparable-sales durability, Kate Spade’s turnaround, China growth and tariff-related margin pressure. 1Q27 recommended trading range: $100 to $145. Neutral Outlook. 

 

Tapestry, Inc.（TPR) 

• 26财年第四季度营收：18.8亿美元，同比增长9.3%，超出预期1000万美元 

• 26财年第四季度非公认会计准则每股收益：1.32美元，小幅超出预期0.04美元 

• 27财年全年指引：营收预计为84亿–85亿美元（隐含中单位数增长），略低于市场预期，暗示较26财年的增速将显著放缓；调整后EPS预计为7.80–7.90美元。 

• 股息与回购：季度股息大幅上调16%至每股0.4625美元；计划在27财年现有授权下回购约13.5亿美元股票。 

• 短评：本季度财务表现依然强劲，但市场核心焦点已转向“Coach品牌增长动能是否见顶”。亮点：核心品牌Coach继续保持双位数增长（本季度达15%），得益于Tabby、Brooklyn等爆款手袋的成功以及在年轻消费者群体中的强劲吸引力。国际市场表现尤为亮眼，大中华区与欧洲的增速远超北美本土市场。担忧点：市场对27财年的“增长常态化（normalization）”感到担忧。Coach 15%的季度增速实际上略低于市场极高的预期；同时，Kate Spade品牌依然面临结构性疲软。管理层更预警称，受关税及宏观不确定性影响，27财年晚些时候营收增速将进一步放缓。市场反应：由于Coach贡献了Tapestry绝大部分的盈利与增长动能，即便是轻微的增速放缓预期，也引发了剧烈的估值重估。尽管盈利超预期，股价仍暴跌16.5%，呈现典型的“杀估值”行情。后续关键变量包括：（1）Coach同店销售增长（comps）；（2）Kate Spade品牌的转型与复苏进度；（3）大中华区等核心国际市场的消费回暖情况；（4）关税政策变动对供应链成本及毛利率的潜在压制。Tapestry凭借Coach的强势表现和积极的资本回报（大幅提升股息与巨额回购）展现了良好的股东回报意愿。但在Kate Spade拖累及宏观/关税逆风下，单核驱动（Coach）的增长模式在当前估值下面临较高的情绪敏感度。27财年第一季度建议交易区间：100美元至145美元。中性前景。 

  

X-Energy, Inc. (XE) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $54.6M, +154.0% YoY 

• 2Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: –$0.15, miss estimates by $0.05 

• FY26 Guidance: The company has >11 GW of identified Xe-100 projects with customers/partners including Amazon, Dow and Centrica. The first Dow project remains targeted for operation in the early 2030s.  

• Comment: This was fundamentally a positive quarter, but the key catalyst came outside the P&L. The U.S. DOE has increased potential public funding for the Dow/X-energy Texas project by up to another $1B, bringing cumulative public support since 2021 to approximately $2.15B. The incremental award remains subject to a 50/50 cost-sharing structure but materially de-risks financing of X-energy’s first commercial deployment. Commercial momentum is also improving. X-energy has secured a HALEU supply framework with Centrus, TRISO-X received its NRC fuel-fabrication licence earlier this year, and the company is progressing >11 GW of potential deployments. These milestones matter substantially more than near-term EPS because the equity story depends on whether Xe-100 moves from development into a repeatable reactor/fuel platform. The main risk is timing. Meaningful reactor economics remain years away, licensing and construction execution are unproven at commercial scale, and HALEU availability remains a bottleneck. There is also a near-term technical overhang: IPO lock-up shares are scheduled to become eligible for sale on September 1, 2026. The DOE’s additional $1B commitment is a meaningful positive catalyst and strengthens the probability-weighted value of the Dow project. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $17 to $26. Neutral Outlook. 

 

X-Energy, Inc.（XE) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：5460万美元，同比增长154.0% 

• 26财年第二季度非公认会计准则每股亏损：0.15美元，低于预期0.05美元（亏损略扩）业务进展与项目储备：已识别超11 GW的Xe-100反应堆项目储备，合作伙伴包括亚马逊（Amazon）、陶氏（Dow）和Centrica等巨头；首个陶氏（Dow） 

• 短评：本季度基本面积极，但真正的核心催化剂来自损益表之外。美国能源部（DOE）宣布为X-energy与陶氏合作的德州核能项目追加高达10亿美元的潜在公共资金支持，使该项目自2021年以来的累计政府补贴总额达到约21.5亿美元。尽管仍需遵循50/50的成本分摊机制，但这实质性降低了公司首个商业化反应堆部署的融资风险与资本压力。商业化进程亦在稳步突破：公司与Centrus达成了高丰度低浓缩铀（HALEU）供应框架协议；旗下TRISO-X工厂于今年早些时候顺利获得美国核管会（NRC）的燃料制造许可证；潜在项目储备规模已超11 GW。对于此类先进核能硬科技公司，这些工程与合规里程碑远比短期EPS更重要，其股权估值逻辑完全取决于Xe-100能否从研发阶段成功跨越至可规模化复制的商业反应堆与燃料平台。然而，核心风险在于漫长的时间周期与执行不确定性：实现具备商业意义的反应堆经济效益仍需数年时间；大规模商业化阶段的许可审批与工程建设能力尚未经验证；且HALEU燃料的供应链瓶颈依然存在。此外，近期面临技术性抛压：IPO限售股将于2026年9月1日解禁，可能对短期流动性造成冲击。总体而言，DOE追加的10亿美元承诺是重大利好，显著提升了核心项目的概率加权估值，印证了先进核能作为AI数据中心“清洁基荷电力”解决方案的战略地位。后续关键变量包括：（1）DOE资金拨付与Dow项目工程的实际推进节奏；（2）HALEU燃料供应链的稳定性与成本控制；（3）NRC对Xe-100反应堆设计的最终审批进度；（4）9月限售股解禁对股价的短期扰动；（5）其他超大规模客户（如科技巨头）。X-Energy作为先进微型核反应堆（SMR）领域的领军者，深度受益于AI算力爆发带来的电力渴求及美国政府的强力背书。但鉴于其仍处于商业化早期，资本开支大、回报周期长，股价将呈现典型的高波动特征。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：17美元至26美元。中性前景。 

 

Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: $9.12B, +24.9% YoY, beat estimates by $120M 

• 3Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $3.50, beat estimates by $0.11 

• 4Q26 Guidance: 4Q26 revenue guided to $10.25B ±$500M, materially above consensus of approximately $9.54B–$9.55B. Adjusted EPS guided to $4.02 ±$0.20 versus consensus around $3.71. Semiconductor Systems revenue is expected around $7.9B. 

• Comment: This was an exceptionally strong beat-and-raise quarter. DRAM and advanced packaging remain the standout drivers, with advanced-packaging revenue expected to grow more than 70% in FY26. Management also said customer-demand visibility now extends as far as 2030, while planning to double quarterly Semiconductor Systems output capacity by 2028. The main issue is expectations rather than fundamentals. AMAT had more than doubled YTD before the print, and even a Q4 revenue guide roughly 7% above consensus failed to clear the market’s elevated AI/WFE expectations. Shares fell about 4%–5% after hours despite the substantial guidance beat. The principal variables are DRAM equipment spending, advanced-packaging growth, foundry/logic capex, China exposure and execution of manufacturing-capacity expansion. Fundamentally, the earnings trajectory remains exceptionally strong and the Q4 guide implies another significant sequential acceleration. 4Q26 recommended trading range: $420 to $600. Neutral Outlook. 

 

Applied Materials, Inc.（AMAT) 

• 26财年第三季度营收：91.2亿美元，同比增长24.9%，超出预期1.2亿美元 

• 26财年第三季度非公认会计准则每股收益：3.50美元，超出预期0.11美元 

• 26财年第四季度指引：营收指引为102.5亿美元（±5亿美元），大幅高于市场共识的约9.54亿–9.55亿美元；调整后EPS指引为4.02美元（±0.20美元），显著高于市场预期的约3.71美元；半导体系统（Semiconductor Systems） 

• 短评：本季度呈现极为强劲的“超预期+上调指引”态势。DRAM（存储芯片）是当前的核心增长引擎，管理层预计26财年先进封装相关收入将暴增超70%，直接受益于AI芯片对HBM（高带宽内存）及CoWoS等复杂封装技术的渴求。更令人瞩目的是其长期需求能见度：管理层明确表示客户需求已清晰延伸至2030年，并计划到2028年将半导体系统季度产出产能翻倍，以应对长期的设备需求。然而，核心博弈点依然在于“预期透支”。基本面无懈可击，但在财报发布前，AMAT年内股价已实现翻倍以上的涨幅。即便Q4营收指引高出华尔街共识约7%，仍未能满足市场被“AI与晶圆制造设备（WFE）超级周期”推高的极高胃口。盘后股价下跌4%–5%，呈现典型的高位“利好出尽”与获利了结反应。后续关键变量包括：（1）DRAM设备资本开支的复苏斜率与持续性；（2）先进封装设备需求的爆发深度；（3）晶圆代工与逻辑芯片（Foundry/Logic）；（4）中国市场营收敞口及潜在的地缘政治/出口管制风险；（5）产能翻倍计划的执行与供应链保障。Applied Materials作为全球半导体设备龙头，正处于AI先进封装与存储扩产的双重红利期，盈利轨迹极为强劲，Q4指引亦暗示环比将再次显著加速。但在经历大幅估值扩张后，短期股价对“超预期幅度”的要求极为苛刻。26财年第四季度建议交易区间：420美元至600美元。中性前景。 

 

Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. (FIGR) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $225.59M, +112.7% YoY, beat estimates by $11.37M 

• 2Q26 GAAP EPS: $0.35, beat estimates by $0.11 

• FY26 Guidance: No explicit guidance. 

• Comment: This was a strong quarter. The combination of triple-digit marketplace-volume growth, a clear revenue beat and unusually high adjusted EBITDA of $119.4M implies substantial operating leverage. More importantly, Figure Connect volume reached $2.77B and 65% of total Consumer Loan Marketplace activity, supporting the thesis that Figure is evolving toward a capital-light marketplace rather than remaining primarily a balance-sheet lender. The next leg of the thesis is platform expansion. Figure is adding originators rapidly, SMB lending is scaling, and the planned Kiavi acquisition expands the addressable market into residential real-estate investment lending. If Figure can put additional credit products onto the same blockchain-native marketplace infrastructure, revenue growth could increasingly decouple from balance-sheet growth. Shares rose about 7.4% after the earnings release. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $25 to $35. Neutral Outlook. 

 

Figure Technology Solutions, Inc.（FIGR) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：2.2559亿美元，同比增长112.7%，超出预期1137万美元 

• 26财年第二季度公认会计准则每股收益：0.35美元，显著超出预期0.11美元 

• 26财年全年指引：未提供明确财务指引 

• 短评：本季度表现强劲，展现出显著的运营杠杆效应。市场交易量实现三位数增长，营收大幅超预期，且调整后EBITDA高达1.194亿美元，盈利弹性极为亮眼。核心亮点在于商业模式的实质性进化：Figure Connect平台交易量达27.7亿美元，已占消费贷款市场总交易量的65%。这一数据有力印证了公司正成功从“依赖自身资产负债表的直接贷款人”，向“轻资产的区块链贷款撮合平台”转型。未来的增长逻辑在于平台生态的横向扩张：公司正快速接入更多贷款发起方（originators），中小企业（SMB）贷款业务稳步起量；同时，计划收购Kiavi将把其目标市场延伸至住宅房地产投资贷款领域。若Figure能持续将更多元化的信贷产品迁移至其原生的区块链市场基础设施上，其营收增长将逐步与自身的资产负债表扩张脱钩，从而实现更轻的资本消耗与更高的资本回报率。财报后股价上涨约7.4%，市场对其轻资产转型与高盈利质量给予积极反馈。后续关键变量包括：（1）Figure Connect平台交易量的持续爆发与市占率提升；（2）SMB贷款放量及Kiavi收购后的业务整合成效；（3）底层信贷资产的质量与违约率控制；（4）平台发起方网络的扩张速度与黏性。Figure Technology 凭借区块链技术在信贷撮合与结算领域的应用，正走出一条差异化的轻资产金融科技路径。若平台网络效应持续显现，估值逻辑有望向高成长的平台型公司靠拢。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：25美元至35美元。中性前景。