Trip.com Group Limited (TCOM)
- 2Q26 Revenue: $2.3B, +9.5% YoY, miss estimates by $20M
- 2Q26 Non-GAAP EPADS: $1.07, beat estimates by $0.22
- FY26 Guidance: Management remains focused on international expansion, inbound travel and AI-driven personalization, while Q2 revenue growth of 6% landed within the 3–8% range previously guided in 1Q26. Near-term domestic growth remains constrained by elevated energy prices, geopolitical volatility and regulatory-related operational adjustments.
- Comment: This was a better quarter than the GAAP loss suggests. Revenue modestly beat expectations, and adjusted EPS beat by roughly 19%, while the international business remains the clearest structural growth driver. Revenue from Trip.com’s international platform increased more than 50%, inbound travel remained high-double-digit growth and corporate travel also stayed healthy. These trends suggest the company is gradually becoming less dependent on mature domestic Chinese travel growth. The key issue is domestic growth and regulatory risk. Total revenue growth slowed sharply from 17% in 1Q26 to 6% in 2Q26, transportation revenue declined and the RMB5.2B anti-monopoly fine is a reminder that regulatory intervention remains a material risk. Adjusted EBITDA also declined to RMB4.6B from RMB4.9B a year ago, while sales and marketing expenses increased 15%, suggesting international expansion is currently requiring heavier reinvestment. Shares closed at approximately US$39.25, near the lower end of their 52-week range and more than 50% below the 52-week high. The principal variables to monitor are international-platform growth, inbound travel bookings, domestic accommodation demand, transportation-ticketing recovery, marketing intensity, regulatory developments and whether revenue growth can reaccelerate above the current mid-single-digit pace. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $35 to $48. Neutral Outlook.
携程集团（TCOM)
- 26财年第二季度营收：23亿美元，同比增长9.5%（注：核心业务口径增速约6%），略低于预期2000万美元
- 26财年第二季度非公认会计准则每ADS收益（EPADS）：1.07美元，大幅超出预期0.22美元
- 战略与业务指引：管理层持续聚焦国际化扩张、入境游红利及AI驱动的个性化服务。短期内，国内业务增长仍受制于较高的出行成本、地缘政治波动以及监管层面的运营调整。
- 短评：本季度实际表现远好于表观数据所呈现的疲软，“国际化”已成为最清晰的结构性增长引擎。核心亮点：公司正逐步降低对成熟国内旅游市场的单一依赖。Trip.com国际平台营收同比暴增超50%，入境游业务保持高双位数增长，企业差旅（TMC）表现依然稳健。在营收微幅miss的背景下，调整后EPS依然大幅超预期约19%，展现了核心业务极强的盈利韧性与成本控制能力。核心隐忧（国内降速与监管/投入压力）：国内基本盘增速显著放缓，总营收增速从一季度的17%降至约6%，交通票务收入出现下滑。此外，高达52亿元人民币的反垄断罚款再次凸显了监管干预带来的实质性财务与合规风险。同时，为了支撑海外扩张，销售和营销费用同比攀升15%，导致调整后EBITDA同比下滑（从49亿元降至46亿元），表明国际化战略目前仍处于需要重金投入的“跑马圈地”阶段。当前股价收于约39.25美元，处于52周低位区间，较52周高点已大幅回撤逾50%。估值已较为充分地消化了国内宏观疲软与监管罚款的利空，但短期估值修复仍需等待国内需求的实质性回暖或国际业务利润率的拐点。后续关键变量包括：（1）Trip.com国际平台的营收增速与海外市占率扩张；（2）入境游预订量的持续性与客单价表现；（3）国内住宿与交通票务需求的修复斜率；（4）海外营销费用的投入产出比（ROI）；（5）监管政策的后续动态与合规成本；（6）整体营收增速能否重回中单位数以上的健康轨道。携程凭借强大的供应链整合能力与Trip.com的全球化布局，依然是中国乃至亚太区OTA（在线旅游）赛道的绝对龙头。尽管短期面临国内宏观逆风与监管扰动，但其国际化第二增长曲线已初具规模，且当前极具吸引力的估值水位提供了较高的安全边际。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：35美元至48美元。中性前景。
