Technical Analysis: 16 July 2026

ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: €9.33 B, +21.3% YoY, beat estimates by €400M 

• 2Q26 GAAP EPS: €7.59, beat estimates by €0.60 

• FY26 Guidance: ASML expects 3Q26 revenue of €11.0B–€12.0B with gross margin of 55%–57%. FY26 revenue guidance was raised materially to €43B–€45B from €36B–€40B, while gross-margin guidance increased to 54%–56% from 51%–53%. 

• Dividends/Share Buybacks: Declared a first quarterly interim dividend of €1.88 per share, payable on 5 August 2026. ASML repurchased approximately 0.8M shares for €1.1B during the quarter under its existing share-repurchase programme. 

• Comment: This was a strong beat-and-raise quarter, with the magnitude of the FY26 guidance upgrade more important than the headline earnings beat. Demand is broadening across advanced logic, high-bandwidth memory and supporting semiconductor capacity. Nearly all of ASML’s expanded EUV capacity through 2027 is already booked, while management plans to increase EUV capacity by approximately 30% and pursue a similar expansion for DUV systems. The principal concern is valuation rather than operating momentum. The ADR has risen approximately 70% year to date and closed at US$1,815.27 following the results, equivalent to approximately 61x trailing earnings. At this valuation, further upside requires continued guidance upgrades and successful capacity execution rather than merely meeting the newly raised outlook. The key variables are EUV capacity ramp execution, customer fab construction schedules, High-NA adoption, memory-capex durability and China export restrictions. China is expected to contribute approximately 20% of FY26 sales, leaving ASML exposed to potential further restrictions despite demand remaining strong. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $1600 to $2000. Neutral Outlook. 

ASML Holding N.V.（ASML) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：93.3亿欧元，同比增长21.3%，超出预期4亿欧元 

• 26财年第二季度公认会计准则每股收益：7.59欧元，超出预期0.60欧元 

• 26财年指引大幅上调：全年营收指引上调至430亿–450亿欧元（原为360亿–400亿欧元）；毛利率指引提升至54%–56%（原为51%–53%）；第三季度营收预计110亿–120亿欧元，毛利率55%–57% 

• 股息与回购：宣布首笔季度中期股息每股1.88欧元（2026年8月5日支付）；本季度回购约80万股，耗资11亿欧元 

• 短评：本季度为典型的“超预期+大幅上修”组合，全年指引的跃升比单季盈利更关键。需求正从先进逻辑芯片扩展至高带宽内存（HBM）及配套晶圆厂建设，推动对EUV和DUV光刻设备的强劲需求。管理层透露，截至2027年的几乎所有新增EUV产能已被预订，并计划将EUV产能再提升约30%，同时扩大DUV产能，显示行业对长期半导体资本开支高度乐观。然而，主要风险已从运营转向估值：ASML美国存托凭证（ADR）年初至今累计上涨约70%，财报后收于1815.27美元，对应约61倍滚动市盈率。在此高位，市场不再满足于“达成目标”，而要求持续上调指引与产能执行超预期才能支撑进一步上涨。此外，地缘政治仍是关键变量：中国预计将贡献FY26约20%的销售额，尽管当前出口许可仍允许部分DUV设备交付，但未来若限制加码，可能影响收入能见度。后续关键变量包括：（1）EUV产能爬坡是否如期推进；（2）客户（如台积电、三星、英特尔）晶圆厂建设进度是否匹配设备交付；（3）High-NA EUV技术的客户采纳节奏；（4）存储芯片厂商资本开支是否维持高位；（5）对华出口政策是否出现新变化。ASML作为全球半导体设备皇冠上的明珠，基本面强劲，但估值已充分反映乐观预期。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：1600美元至2000美元。中性前景。 

BlackRock, Inc. (BLK) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $7.08B, +30.6% YoY, beat estimates by $240M 

• 2Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $13.91, beat estimates by $1.26 

• FY26 Guidance: Management remained constructive on organic growth after generating record first-half net inflows of $321B. The company is targeting continued expansion across ETFs, active fixed income, private credit and infrastructure, while working toward raising $400B of private-market assets between 2025 and 2030. 

• Dividends/Share Buybacks: The quarterly dividend remained $5.73 per share. BlackRock increased its planned FY26 share repurchases to approximately $2.0B and raised the quarterly repurchase pace to around $550M, reflecting stronger cash generation and management confidence. 

• Comment: This was a strong, broad-based beat. Assets under management reached a record $15.34T, +22% YoY, following $192B of quarterly net inflows versus expectations of approximately $169B. ETF inflows remained the principal engine, while active fixed income, systematic equities and private markets also contributed. Adjusted operating margin expanded to 45.9%, its highest level in nearly five years, demonstrating operating leverage despite continued investment in the private-markets platform. BLK shares rose 6.4% on the first full trading session following the earnings release, closing near $1,093, after trading as high as approximately $1,109. The reaction reflected the earnings beat, record AUM, stronger-than-expected flows and the increase in planned share repurchases. The principal concern is the contribution from market appreciation. Strong equity and credit markets increased AUM and fee revenue, meaning earnings growth could moderate if asset prices correct or investor risk appetite weakens. However, 8% organic base-fee growth, improving private-market fundraising and a more diversified revenue mix suggest that the quarter was not solely driven by market beta. The key variables are ETF flow durability, organic base-fee growth, private-market fundraising and deployment, acquisition integration, performance fees and market levels. Fundamentals remain constructive, but the post-results rally and valuation of approximately 27x trailing earnings reduce the near-term margin of safety. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $950 to $1080. Neutral Outlook. 

BlackRock, Inc.（BLK)  

• 26财年第二季度营收：70.8亿美元，同比增长30.6%，超出预期2.4亿美元 

• 26财年第二季度非公认会计准则每股收益：13.91美元，显著超出预期1.26美元 

• 26财年前瞻指引：管理层对有机增长保持积极态度，上半年实现创纪录的净流入3210亿美元；重点推进ETF、主动固定收益、私募信贷及基础设施领域扩张，并计划在2025–2030年间募集4000亿美元私募市场资产 

• 股息与回购：维持季度股息每股5.73美元；将26财年股票回购计划上调至约20亿美元，季度回购节奏提升至约5.5亿美元 

• 短评：本季度表现强劲且全面超预期。管理资产规模（AUM）达创纪录的15.34万亿美元（同比+22%），单季净流入1920亿美元，远超市场预期的1690亿美元。ETF持续为流入主力，同时主动固收、系统化股票策略及私募市场亦贡献显著。调整后运营利润率扩大至45.9%，为近五年最高，显示公司在加大私募平台投入的同时仍实现优异运营杠杆。财报后股价上涨6.4%，收于约1093美元（盘中高见1109美元），反映市场对强劲现金流、资本返还加码及结构性增长叙事的认可。然而，需注意市场beta贡献不可忽视：美股与信用市场强势推升AUM及费用收入，若下半年资产价格回调或风险偏好降温，盈利增速可能放缓。值得肯定的是，公司录得8%的有机基础费率增长，叠加私募募资进展顺利、收入结构日益多元，表明增长并非仅依赖市场上涨。后续关键变量包括：（1）ETF资金流入能否在波动市中保持韧性；（2）有机基础费率增长是否可持续；（3）私募资产募资与部署效率；（4）近期收购整合成效；（5）绩效费收入对市场波动的敏感性。尽管基本面稳健，但当前估值约27倍滚动市盈率，叠加财报后已有一轮明显上涨，短期上行空间受限，安全边际收窄。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：950美元至1080美元。中性前景。 

Morgan Stanley (MS) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $21.35B, +27.2% YoY, beat estimates by $1.7B 

• 2Q26 GAAP EPS: $3.46, beat estimates by $0.53 

• FY26 Guidance: Management remained constructive on investment-banking pipelines, IPO activity and AI-related financing, with the firm expecting capital markets to fund a multi-year AI investment cycle. Wealth Management assets reached the firm’s long-standing $10T target, supported by $148B of quarterly net new assets. However, the exceptional trading and underwriting environment may normalize during the second half. 

• Dividends/Share Buybacks: Increased the quarterly dividend 15% to $1.15 per share from $1.00. Morgan Stanley also reauthorized a multi-year common-equity repurchase programme of up to $20B. The firm repurchased $1.5B of shares during 2Q26, below expectations of approximately $1.8B. 

• Comment: This was a strong and broad-based quarter. Equities trading revenue increased 69% to a record $6.30B, while investment-banking revenue rose 58% to $2.44B as IPO underwriting, equity issuance and M&A activity accelerated. Morgan Stanley also benefited from its leadership in corporate stock-plan administration, with more than half of Wealth Management’s $148B of net new assets coming from IPO-related stock-plan flows. MS shares were broadly flat following the earnings release, closing near $222 versus a previous close of $222.13, despite trading approximately 0.4% higher during the morning session. The muted reaction suggests that the earnings beat was largely anticipated following the stock’s approximately 28.5% year-to-date increase. The lower-than-expected $1.5B quarterly buyback also partially offset the record revenue and EPS beat. The principal concern is earnings sustainability. Record equities revenue benefited from unusually active and volatile markets, while investment banking was supported by several major IPOs and transactions. These conditions are unlikely to recur at the same intensity every quarter. Nevertheless, the combination of Wealth Management scale, investment-banking market share and strong capital generation provides greater earnings durability than a purely trading-led model. The key variables are normalization in equities trading, IPO and M&A completion levels, Wealth Management net new assets, asset-management performance fees and the pace of share repurchases. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $200 to $280. Positive Outlook. 

摩根士丹利（MS) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：213.5亿美元，同比增长27.2%，超出预期17亿美元 

• 26财年第二季度公认会计准则每股收益：3.46美元，显著超出预期0.53美元 

• 26财年前瞻指引：管理层对投行业务管线、IPO活动及AI相关融资保持乐观，认为资本市场将支撑多年期AI投资周期；财富管理AUM达长期目标10万亿美元，本季新增净资产1480亿美元（其中超半数来自IPO相关股权计划流入）；但提示当前异常强劲的交易与承销环境下半年可能回归常态 

• 股息与回购：季度股息上调15%至每股1.15美元；重新授权高达200亿美元的多年期普通股回购计划；本季度实际回购15亿美元，略低于市场预期的18亿美元 

• 短评：本季度表现强劲且多元驱动。股票交易收入同比暴增69%至创纪录的63亿美元，投行业务收入大增58%至24.4亿美元，受益于IPO重启、股权发行及并购活跃。尤为独特的是，公司凭借在企业员工股权计划管理（stock-plan administration）领域的领导地位，将资本市场热潮直接转化为财富管理资产流入——1480亿美元新增资产中，逾50%源于此渠道，凸显其“投行+财富”协同效应的战略优势。尽管业绩亮眼，股价反应平淡（收盘持平于222美元），主因市场已price in大部分利好——年初至今累计上涨约28.5%，且本季回购规模略低于预期，部分抵消了盈利惊喜。核心关注点在于盈利可持续性：当前高交易与投行收入建立在高波动、多IPO的特殊环境之上，难以每季复制。然而，与纯交易型券商不同，摩根士丹利已构建更稳健的盈利基础：10万亿美元财富管理平台提供稳定费用收入、投行市占率领先、资本生成能力强，使其在周期波动中更具韧性。后续关键变量包括：（1）股票交易收入是否温和回落但仍高于趋势水平；（2）已签约IPO与并购项目能否顺利交割；（3）财富管理净新增资产能否维持高位；（4）资产管理绩效费在市场调整中的稳定性；（5）200亿美元回购计划的实际执行节奏。在AI资本开支周期与财富管理规模效应双重支撑下，公司长期前景向好。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：200美元至280美元。积极前景。 
   

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $25.31B, +6.8% YoY, beat estimates by $250M 

• 2Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.90, beat estimates by $0.05 

• FY26 Guidance: Johnson & Johnson raised FY26 reported-sales guidance to $100.8B–$101.4B from $100.3B–$101.3B. Adjusted EPS guidance increased to $11.60–$11.75 from $11.45–$11.65, while adjusted operational EPS guidance rose more meaningfully to $11.50–$11.65 from $11.30–$11.50. 

• Dividends/Share Buybacks: The quarterly dividend stands at $1.34 per share, following a 3.1% increase announced in April 2026. This marked Johnson & Johnson’s 64th consecutive year of dividend increases. J&J prioritises dividends and strategic investment over large recurring share repurchases. 

• Comment: This was a resilient quarter, with strong Innovative Medicine growth more than offsetting Stelara’s loss of exclusivity. Tremfya sales increased approximately 73% to $2.0B, while Darzalex, Carvykti, Caplyta and Spravato supported continued portfolio growth. Stelara remained the principal headwind, reducing Innovative Medicine operational growth by approximately 760 basis points. JNJ shares fell 2.7% on the earnings day to $247.02 despite the revenue and EPS beat and raised guidance. The negative reaction reflected weaker-than-expected MedTech sales, a 2% decline in Impella heart-pump revenue and modest oncology shortfalls. The stock traded as high as $257.80 intraday before selling off, indicating that investors focused on segment quality rather than the consolidated beat. The principal concern is whether new-product growth can fully offset Stelara’s rapid biosimilar erosion while MedTech returns to a stronger trajectory. The Impella weakness adds uncertainty to the Abiomed investment thesis, although J&J maintains that forthcoming clinical evidence should support the platform. The raised guidance demonstrates portfolio resilience, but the relatively small consolidated earnings surprise did not resolve these segment-level concerns. The key variables are Tremfya and oncology growth, Stelara erosion, uptake of newer medicines, Impella demand, MedTech procedure volumes and litigation exposure. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $220 to $270. Neutral Outlook. 

强生公司（JNJ) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：253.1亿美元，同比增长6.8%，超出预期2.5亿美元 

• 26财年第二季度非公认会计准则每股收益：2.90美元，小幅超出预期0.05美元 

• 26财年全年指引上调：报告营收指引上调至1008亿–1014亿美元（原为1003亿–1013亿）；调整后EPS上调至11.60–11.75美元（原为11.45–11.65）；调整后运营EPS更显著上调至11.50–11.65美元（原为11.30–11.50） 

• 股息：季度股息维持每股1.34美元（2026年4月宣布上调3.1%），连续第64年提高股息；公司优先保障股息与战略投资，而非大规模常规回购 

• 短评：本季度展现显著韧性。尽管重磅药物Stelara因生物类似药冲击导致销售额大幅下滑（拖累创新医药板块运营增长约760个基点），但Tremfya销售额同比激增73%至20亿美元，Darzalex、Carvykti、Caplyta和Spravato等产品持续放量，有效对冲专利悬崖影响。然而，财报日股价下跌2.7%至247.02美元，盘中虽一度冲高至257.80美元，但最终回落，反映投资者更关注细分业务质量而非整体超预期：医疗科技（MedTech）表现疲软，尤其Impella心室辅助泵收入下降2%，引发市场对其收购Abiomed协同效应的担忧；肿瘤学部分产品销售略低于预期，亦构成短期拖累。尽管全年指引全面上调，印证整体组合抗压能力，但Stelara快速侵蚀与MedTech复苏乏力仍是核心矛盾。管理层强调Impella平台将受益于即将公布的临床数据，有望重振需求，但需时间验证。后续关键变量包括：（1）Tremfya及肿瘤管线（如Carvykti）能否维持高增长；（2）Stelara生物类似药侵蚀速度是否见顶；（3）新一代药物（如免疫、神经科学领域）的市场渗透；（4）Impella需求与MedTech手术量能否回升；（5）遗留诉讼风险是否进一步缓释。强生基本面稳健、现金流强劲、股息可靠，但在转型过渡期，增长动能尚未完全无缝衔接。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：220美元至270美元。中性前景。 

United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $17.7B, +16.1% YoY, beat estimates by $130M 

• 2Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.99, beat estimates by $0.14 

• FY26 Guidance: United raised FY26 adjusted EPS guidance to $9.00–$11.00 from $7.00–$11.00. However, 3Q26 adjusted EPS guidance of $2.50–$3.50 was below consensus of approximately $3.60. Management expects to recover 80%–90% of the incremental fuel-cost increase through pricing and capacity actions in 3Q26, rising to approximately 100% by 4Q26. 

• Comment: This was an operationally strong quarter but a lower-quality earnings beat. Premium revenue increased 16%, contracted corporate revenue rose 27%, cargo revenue increased 23%, and loyalty and basic-economy revenue each grew 11%. Pricing remained firm, with yields rising 12%, demonstrating that United has so far been able to pass a meaningful portion of higher fuel costs to passengers without materially damaging demand. UAL shares fell approximately 2%–2.4% in after-hours trading following the earnings release. The regular US trading session following the announcement has not yet been completed, so the final first-session reaction is unavailable. Investors focused on the nearly $6B increase in anticipated FY26 fuel expense and the below-consensus 3Q26 EPS guidance, rather than the headline earnings beat and higher full-year guidance floor. The principal issue is that the improved FY26 EPS range partly depends on United successfully recovering extraordinary fuel inflation through higher fares and lower capacity. Fuel expense increased $2.3B, or 84% YoY, during 2Q26, while United recovered only approximately half of that increase. The company’s expectation of full recovery by 4Q26 is constructive but carries execution risk if fare increases weaken demand or industry capacity remains excessive. The key variables are jet-fuel prices, passenger yield growth, capacity discipline, corporate and premium demand, and the pace of fuel-cost recovery. The revenue environment remains strong, but earnings visibility is unusually sensitive to oil prices and geopolitical developments. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $105 to $160. Neutral Outlook. 

United Airlines Holdings, Inc.（UAL) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：177亿美元，同比增长16.1%，超出预期1.3亿美元 

• 26财年第二季度非公认会计准则每股收益：1.99美元，超出预期0.14美元 

• 26财年全年指引更新：上调全年调整后EPS至9.00–11.00美元（原为7.00–11.00美元，即提高下限）；但第三季度调整后EPS指引为2.50–3.50美元，低于市场共识约3.60美元燃油成本应对策略：预计Q3可对冲80%–90%的新增燃油成本，Q4实现全额对冲（约100%） 

• 短评：本季度运营表现强劲，但盈利质量承压。高端舱位收入增长16%，企业协议收入大增27%，货运收入上升23%，常旅客及基础经济舱收入均增长11%。票价坚挺，收益率同比提升12%，显示联航在高油价环境下仍具备较强定价权，且未显著抑制需求。然而，盘后股价下跌2%–2.4%，反映投资者更关注两大隐忧：燃油成本飙升：Q2燃油支出同比暴增84%（+23亿美元），仅约一半通过提价转嫁；Q3盈利指引低于预期，尽管全年EPS下限上调，但短期兑现路径存疑。管理层预计通过票价提升+运力调控（capacity discipline）逐步完全消化燃油冲击，并在Q4实现成本全覆盖。这一假设乐观但具执行风险—若提价导致需求弹性显现，或行业供给过剩压制票价，盈利修复可能延迟。当前营收环境健康，但盈利能见度高度依赖油价与地缘政治（如中东局势影响航油供应）。后续关键变量包括：（1）航油价格走势；（2）单位收益（yield）能否持续跑赢成本涨幅；（3）公司是否维持运力纪律；（4）商务及高端休闲需求韧性；（5）燃油成本回收进度是否如期推进。联航基本面强于同业，但高波动成本结构使其短期估值敏感。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：105美元至160美元。中性前景。