Technical Analysis: 15 July 2026

Citigroup Inc. (C) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $24.8B, +14.3% YoY, beat estimates by $1.07B 

• 2Q26 GAAP EPS: $3.15, beat estimates by $0.42 

• FY26 Guidance: Maintained FY26 RoTCE guidance of 10%–11% despite delivering 13.0% in 2Q26 and 13.1% in 1Q26. Management indicated that some medium-term investments could be brought forward, implying higher expenses and more moderate returns in 2H26. 

• Dividends/Share Buybacks: Plans to increase the quarterly dividend by 12% and has commenced its $30B repurchase programme. Citi returned approximately $5.0B through common dividends and share repurchases during the quarter. 

• Comment: The underlying quarter was strong and broad-based. Services revenue increased 18%, Markets rose 17%, Banking grew 34%, Wealth increased 13%, and net interest income rose 13%. Investment-banking revenue increased 44%, while equities trading revenue rose 45%, demonstrating strong leverage to capital-markets activity and market volatility. The negative share-price reaction reflects forward expectations rather than weak reported results. Operating expenses increased 5% to $14.2B, and management’s decision to retain its 10%–11% FY26 RoTCE target despite already producing 13% returns raised concerns that accelerated investment spending could dilute second-half operating leverage. Shares closed approximately 5.3% lower at $133.27 following the results. The principal variables are expense discipline, sustainability of trading and investment-banking revenue, credit performance in U.S. cards, and the pace of capital returns. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $110 to $150. Neutral Outlook. 

 

花旗集团（C) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：248亿美元，同比增长14.3%，超出预期10.7亿美元 

• 26财年第二季度公认会计准则每股收益：3.15美元，显著超出预期0.42美元 

• 26财年全年指引：维持全年有形普通股权回报率（RoTCE），尽管Q1和Q2实际RoTCE分别达13.1%和13.0%；管理层暗示可能提前推进中期战略投资，导致下半年费用上升、回报率温和回落 

• 股息与回购：宣布季度股息上调12%；已启动300亿美元股票回购计划；本季度通过分红与回购返还股东约50亿美元 

• 短评：本季度基本面表现强劲且全面。投行业务收入大增44%，股票交易收入飙升45%，财富管理增长13%，银行业务（含贷款与存款利差）增长34%，市场与证券服务收入亦增长17%，充分受益于资本市场活跃度与波动性回升。净利息收入同比增长13%，显示资产负债表定价能力稳健。然而，股价收盘下跌5.3%至133.27美元，反映市场对前瞻指引的担忧：尽管当前盈利能力远超目标，但公司选择不提升全年RoTCE指引，反而暗示将加大战略投入（如技术、风控、国际业务优化），可能导致下半年运营杠杆减弱、费用增速快于收入。投资者担忧短期利润“见顶”，增长动能或阶段性放缓。后续关键变量包括：（1）费用纪律能否在投资扩张下保持合理；（2）交易与投行业务高增长是否可持续（尤其在宏观不确定性下）；（3）美国信用卡资产质量是否在利率高位与消费放缓背景下保持稳定；（4）300亿美元回购及股息提升的执行节奏与资本充足率平衡。花旗当前处于“盈利强、再投资期”阶段，短期估值或承压，但长期转型若见效将重塑价值。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：110美元至150美元。中性前景。 

 

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $20.34B, +39.5% YoY, beat estimates by $3.94B 

• 2Q26 GAAP EPS: $20.98, beat estimates by $6.44 

• FY26 Guidance: Management remained constructive on deal pipelines and expects strong client activity to continue, supported by M&A, equity issuance and AI-related financing. However, current trading conditions are exceptionally strong and may moderate in the second half. 

• Dividends/Share Buybacks: Increased the quarterly dividend 11% to $5.00 per share. Goldman returned $5.36B during the quarter, comprising $4.00B of share repurchases and $1.36B of dividends. 

• Comment: This was an exceptional quarter, driven by unusually strong capital-markets activity. Equities revenue increased 72% to a record $7.42B, FICC revenue rose 32% to $4.59B, and investment-banking fees increased 55% to $3.40B. Asset and Wealth Management revenue also rose 20% to $4.60B, indicating broad-based strength rather than dependence on a single division. The principal concern is earnings sustainability. Market volatility, major IPOs and accelerated corporate transactions created an unusually favourable environment, making the current 23.5% ROE difficult to annualise. Nevertheless, the strong deal pipeline, rising wealth-management scale and capital returns provide better earnings durability than in previous trading-led cycles. Shares rose approximately 7%–9% following the results and closed near $1,140. The key variables are the normalization of equities trading revenue, M&A completion levels, asset-management performance fees and expense growth. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $1000 to $1500. Positive Outlook. 

 

高盛集团（GS) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：203.4亿美元，同比增长39.5%，大幅超出预期39.4亿美元 

• 26财年第二季度公认会计准则每股收益：20.98美元，显著超出预期6.44美元 

• 26财年前瞻指引：管理层对并购、股权发行及AI相关融资的强劲客户活动保持乐观，但提示当前交易环境“异常强劲”，下半年可能有所缓和 

• 股息与回购：季度股息上调11%至每股5.00美元；本季度向股东返还53.6亿美元（含40亿美元回购 + 13.6亿美元股息） 

• 短评：本季度表现极为出色，为近年来最强劲的财报之一。股票业务收入同比暴增72%至创纪录的74.2亿美元，FICC（固定收益、货币及大宗商品）收入增长32%至45.9亿美元，投行业务费用大增55%至34亿美元，资产管理与财富管理收入亦增长20%至46亿美元——显示增长高度多元化，并非仅依赖单一业务线。强劲表现源于资本市场异常活跃：高波动性、大型IPO重启、企业并购加速及AI热潮带动的融资需求共同推升交易与承销收入。公司实现23.5%的有形普通股权回报率（ROE），远超长期目标。然而，市场关注点已转向可持续性：此类“完美风暴”式环境难以全年复制，尤其若宏观不确定性上升或流动性收紧，交易与投行收入可能回归均值。值得肯定的是，高盛正通过财富管理规模扩张、费用多元化及严格的资本返还纪律，提升盈利韧性，降低对周期性交易收入的依赖。财报后股价上涨7%–9%，收于约1140美元，反映市场认可其执行力与结构性改善。后续关键变量包括：（1）股票交易收入是否温和回落但仍高于历史均值；（2）已签约并购项目能否顺利交割；（3）资产管理绩效费在市场波动中的稳定性；（4）费用增长是否控制在合理范围以维持高ROE。在AI与资本市场的双重驱动下，高盛正处于多年来的战略优势窗口期。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：1000美元至1500美元。积极前景。 

 

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $58B, +26.9% YoY, beat estimates by $6.7B 

• 2Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $6.14, beat estimates by $0.34 

• FY26 Guidance: Raised FY26 net interest income excluding Markets to approximately $96.5B from $95.0B, and total NII to $105.5B from $103.0B. Expense guidance increased to approximately $107.5B from $105.0B, reflecting stronger activity and revenue-related compensation. The Card Services net charge-off outlook improved to 3.2% from 3.4%. 

• Dividends/Share Buybacks: Distributed $4.0B through common dividends, equivalent to $1.50 per share, and completed $6.2B of net common-share repurchases during the quarter. 

• Comment: This was an exceptional quarter, even after excluding one-off gains. Markets revenue increased 35%, led by an 86% increase in equities, while investment-banking fees rose 30%. Consumer and Community Banking revenue increased 8%, Asset and Wealth Management revenue rose 19%, and AUM reached $5.1T. The main constraint is the sustainability of current capital-markets conditions. Management described the environment as unusually favourable, while the higher expense guide indicates that part of the incremental revenue will be absorbed by compensation, technology and franchise investment. Nevertheless, loan growth, deposit growth, improved credit guidance and higher NII expectations provide broader support beyond trading. Shares rose approximately 2.5% after the results. The principal variables are normalization in equities trading, investment-banking pipeline conversion, expense discipline and consumer credit performance. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $310 to $380. Neutral Outlook. 

 

摩根大通（JPM)  

• 短评：本季度需求与收入表现强劲，但盈利受制于高昂燃油成本。高端舱位收入增长17%，忠诚度计划收入大增19%，货运收入飙升39%，显示高价值业务持续扩张。尽管运力仅增长约1%，调整后单位总收入（TRASM），反映定价能力与客源结构优化显著。然而，调整后燃油支出同比暴增77%至44亿美元，严重侵蚀利润，导致调整后营业利润率降至8.8%。尽管Trainer炼油厂带来每加仑11美分的成本优势，仍难完全对冲油价冲击。管理层预计，随着票价进一步上调及行业供给纪律维持，Q4利润率有望回升至11%–13%区间。财报后股价下跌约2%，表明市场更关注盈利质量下滑与燃油敞口风险，而非收入端的亮眼表现。投资者担忧若油价维持高位，即使需求稳健，盈利弹性仍将受限。后续关键变量包括：（1）票价上涨能否跑赢燃油成本涨幅；（2）商务及高端休闲旅客需求是否持续坚挺；（3）Trainer炼油厂在波动市场中的对冲效能；（4）Q4营业利润率能否如期修复至双位数水平。Delta基本面健康，但短期盈利受外部成本压制明显。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：80美元至95美元。中性前景26财年第三季度非公认会计准则每股收益：1.56美元，小幅超出预期0.06美元。 
• 26财年第二季度营收：580亿美元，同比增长26.9%，大幅超出预期67亿美元 

• 26财年第二季度非公认会计准则每股收益：6.14美元，超出预期0.34美元 

• 26财年全年指引更新：净利息收入（NII）；总NII上调至1055亿美元（原为1030亿）；运营费用指引上调至1075亿美元（原为1050亿），反映更高业绩相关薪酬与战略投入；信用卡净冲销率展望改善至3.2%（原为3.4%） 

• 股息与回购：本季度派发40亿美元普通股股息（每股1.50美元），并完成62亿美元普通股净回购 

• 短评：本季度表现极为强劲，即使剔除一次性收益，基本面亦全面超预期。股票交易收入暴增86%，推动整体市场业务收入增长35%；投行业务费用增长30%；消费者与社区银行业务收入增长8%；资产管理与财富管理收入增长19%，管理资产规模（AUM）达5.1万亿美元，显示其“全能银行”模式在多重引擎驱动下高效运转。尽管资本市场环境被管理层描述为“异常有利”，公司并未仅依赖交易红利——贷款与存款持续增长、净利息收入上调、信用卡资产质量改善，共同构成更可持续的盈利基础。然而，费用指引同步上调，表明部分增量收入将用于支付绩效薪酬、技术升级及特许经营投资，限制了短期利润率扩张。财报后股价温和上涨约2.5%，反映市场在认可业绩的同时，对下半年资本市场活动可能回归常态保持谨慎。投资者关注焦点已从“是否超预期”转向“高盈利能否延续”。后续关键变量包括：（1）股票交易收入是否温和回落但仍高于趋势水平；（2）已签约投行项目能否顺利转化为收入；（3）在收入高增长背景下，费用纪律是否可控；（4）消费者信贷表现（尤其信用卡）能否在利率高位与消费放缓环境中保持稳健。凭借其规模、多元化与资产负债表实力，摩根大通在当前宏观环境下仍具显著韧性。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：310美元至380美元。中性前景。 
   

Bank of America Corp. (BAC) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $31.6B, +19.4% YoY, beat estimates by $830M 

• 2Q26 GAAP EPS: $1.21, beat estimates by $0.09 

• FY26 Guidance: Expects full-year net interest income to grow at the upper end ‌of its previously forecast range of 6% to 8%. 

• Dividends/Share Buybacks: Returned $8.0B to shareholders ($2.0B through common stock dividends and $6.0B in common stock repurchases). 

• Comment: Bank of America delivered a strong second quarter, with net income rising 26% YoY to US$9.1bn, or US$1.21 per share, ahead of expectations, supported by record trading revenue and a sharp recovery in investment banking activity. Sales and trading revenue increased 33% to US$7.1bn, including a 70% surge in equities revenue, while investment banking fees rose 50% to US$2.1bn amid stronger mergers and acquisitions, equity issuance, and debt financing. Net interest income also grew 9% to US$16.0bn as average loans and leases increased 8% across all business segments, prompting management to expect full-year 2026 net interest income growth at the upper end of its 6%-8% guidance range. Looking ahead, Bank of America should continue to benefit from a healthy deal pipeline, sustained market volatility, loan growth, and fixed-rate asset repricing, although persistent inflation, tighter monetary policy, and any weakening in consumer or corporate activity could temper earnings momentum. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $58 to $70. Positive Outlook. 

 

美国银行 (BAC)  

• 26财年第二季度营收：316亿美元，同比增长19.4%，超出预期8.3亿美元 

• 26财年第二季度GAAP每股收益：1.21美元，超出预期0.09美元 

• 26财年全年指引：预计全年净利息收入将以之前预测的6%至8%区间的上限实现增长。 

• 股息/股票回购：向股东返还80亿美元（其中20亿美元为普通股股息，60亿美元用于普通股回购）。 

• 短评：本季度业绩表现强劲，在创纪录的交易收入和投行业务大幅复苏的支撑下，净利润同比增长26%至91亿美元（合每股1.21美元），超出市场预期。销售与交易收入增长33%至71亿美元，其中股票收入激增70%；同时，在并购、股权发行和债务融资活动走强的推动下，投资银行费用上升50%至21亿美元。净利息收入也增长9%至160亿美元，因各业务板块平均贷款和租赁额均增长8%，促使管理层预计26财年全年净利息收入增长将达到其6%-8%指引区间的上限。展望未来，美国银行应将继续受益于健康的项目储备、持续的市场波动、贷款增长以及固定利率资产的重定价。然而，持续的通货膨胀、更紧缩的货币政策以及消费者或企业活动的任何减弱都可能抑制盈利势头。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：58美元至70美元。积极前景。 

 

Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $22.62B, +8.6% YoY, beat estimates by $770M 

• 2Q26 GAAP EPS: $2.00, beat estimates by $0.28 

• FY26 Guidance: Expect net interest income (NII) to be +/- $50B, unchanged from prior guidance, NII excluding Markets to be +/- $48B and Markets NII to be +/- $2B. Expect noninterest expense to be ~$55.7B, unchanged from prior guidance. 

• Dividends/Share Buybacks: 3Q26  common stock dividend is expected to be $0.50 per share, up from $0.45 per share, subject to approval by the Company’s Board of Directors. 

• Comment: Wells Fargo delivered a strong second quarter, with net income rising 17% YoY to US$6.41bn, or US$2.00 per share, comfortably beating expectations of US$1.72, supported by 35% growth in investment banking fees, a 24% increase in markets revenue, and 12% growth in average loans following the removal of its asset cap. Net interest income increased 5% to US$12.32bn as lending expanded across credit cards, autos, and commercial clients, although slight net interest margin compression and unchanged full-year guidance tempered investor enthusiasm. Looking ahead, Wells Fargo is well positioned to benefit from greater balance-sheet flexibility, stronger capital-markets activity, and continued loan growth, but the pace of earnings expansion will depend on its ability to manage margin pressure and credit risks if inflation or interest rates remain elevated. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $85 to $95. Neutral Outlook. 

 

富国银行 (WFC)  

• 26财年第二季度营收：226.2亿美元，同比增长8.6%，超出预期7.7亿美元 

• 26财年第二季度GAAP每股收益：2.00美元，超出预期0.28美元 

• 26财年全年指引：预计净利息收入（NII）约为500亿美元（上下浮动），与此前指引保持不变；不含市场业务的NII约为480亿美元，市场业务NII约为20亿美元。预计非利息支出约为557亿美元，与此前指引保持不变。 

• 股息/股票回购：26财年第三季度普通股股息预计为每股0.50美元，高于此前的每股0.45美元，具体须经公司董事会批准。 

• 短评：本季度业绩表现强劲，在投行业务费用增长35%、市场业务收入增加24%，以及解除资产规模上限后平均贷款增长12%的支撑下，净利润同比增长17%至64.1亿美元（合每股2.00美元），大幅超出1.72美元的预期。净利息收入增长5%至123.2亿美元，得益于信用卡、汽车和商业客户贷款业务的全面扩张。然而，净息差略有压缩且全年指引保持不变，在一定程度上抑制了投资者的热情。展望未来，富国银行处于有利地位，可从更大的资产负债表灵活性、更强劲的资本市场活动以及持续的贷款增长中受益。但如果通胀或利率保持高位，其盈利扩张的步伐将取决于其管理息差压力和信用风险的能力。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：85美元至95美元。中性前景。