Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL)
- 3Q26 Revenue: $19.8B, +30.3% YoY, beat estimates by $950M
- 3Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.56, beat estimates by $0.06
- FY26 Guidance: Reaffirmed FY26 EPS guidance of $6.50 to $7.50 and free cash flow guidance of $3B to $4B.
- Comment: This was a strong revenue and demand quarter, but fuel costs constrained earnings conversion. Premium revenue increased 17%, main-cabin revenue grew 8%, loyalty revenue rose 19%, and cargo revenue increased 39%. Adjusted total unit revenue rose 12.4% despite capacity growth of only about 1%, indicating strong pricing and mix. The main issue was adjusted fuel expense, which increased 77% to $4.4B and reduced adjusted operating margin to 8.8%. Management expects fare recovery and industry capacity discipline to offset more of the fuel burden in 3Q26, while the Trainer refinery provided an 11-cent-per-gallon benefit. Shares fell about 2% after the release as investors focused on the profit decline and elevated fuel exposure despite the earnings beat. The principal variables to monitor are fare recovery against higher fuel costs, premium and corporate demand durability, refinery contribution, and whether 4Q26 margin reaches the guided 11% to 13% range. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $80 to $95. Neutral Outlook.
Delta Air Lines, Inc.（DAL)
- 26财年第三季度营收：198亿美元，同比增长30.3%，超出预期9.5亿美元
- 26财年第三季度非公认会计准则每股收益：1.56美元，小幅超出预期0.06美元
- 26财年全年指引：重申全年调整后EPS为6.50–7.50美元，自由现金流30亿–40亿美元
- 短评：本季度需求与收入表现强劲，但盈利受制于高昂燃油成本。高端舱位收入增长17%，忠诚度计划收入大增19%，货运收入飙升39%，显示高价值业务持续扩张。尽管运力仅增长约1%，调整后单位总收入（TRASM），反映定价能力与客源结构优化显著。然而，调整后燃油支出同比暴增77%至44亿美元，严重侵蚀利润，导致调整后营业利润率降至8.8%。尽管Trainer炼油厂带来每加仑11美分的成本优势，仍难完全对冲油价冲击。管理层预计，随着票价进一步上调及行业供给纪律维持，Q4利润率有望回升至11%–13%区间。财报后股价下跌约2%，表明市场更关注盈利质量下滑与燃油敞口风险，而非收入端的亮眼表现。投资者担忧若油价维持高位，即使需求稳健，盈利弹性仍将受限。后续关键变量包括：（1）票价上涨能否跑赢燃油成本涨幅；（2）商务及高端休闲旅客需求是否持续坚挺；（3）Trainer炼油厂在波动市场中的对冲效能；（4）Q4营业利润率能否如期修复至双位数水平。Delta基本面健康，但短期盈利受外部成本压制明显。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：80美元至95美元。中性前景。
