Technical Analysis: 13 August 2026

Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $582.3M, +454.0% YoY, beat estimates by $8.36M 

• 2Q26 GAAP EPS: –$0.68, beat estimates by $0.18 

• FY26 Guidance: Reaffirmed FY26 revenue guidance of $3.0B–$3.4B and year-end ARR guidance of $7B–$9B. Contracted-power target was raised to 5 GW, with management targeting more than 1 GW of incremental deployments annually from 2027. 

• Comment: This was an exceptionally strong quarter. ARR reached roughly $3B, while Nebius signed four major AI-cloud contracts averaging more than $1B each. Total contract value signed during the quarter was almost 4x Q1, and new-customer contract value increased more than ninefold. Importantly, pricing is strengthening: recent AI-cloud deals were signed at annual contract values exceeding $20M/MW. The principal concern is capital intensity. Q2 capex reached approximately $5.7B as Nebius aggressively purchased GPUs and expanded data-centre capacity. However, financing risk has improved because roughly 70% of Q2 contracts included customer prepayments, and management now expects more than $9B of customer prepayments during 2026 against more than $40B of customer commitments. Shares surged more than 20% following the results, reflecting the EBITDA beat, improving contract economics and stronger capacity outlook. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $200 to $300. Neutral Outlook. 

 

Nebius Group N.V.（NBIS) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：5.823亿美元，同比暴增454.0%，超出预期836万美元 

• 26财年第二季度公认会计准则每股亏损：0.68美元，优于预期0.18美元（亏损显著收窄） 

• 26财年全年指引：重申全年营收指引30亿–34亿美元，年底年度经常性收入（ARR）；签约电力容量目标上调至5 GW，管理层计划从2027年起每年新增部署超1 GW的算力基础设施。 

• 短评：本季度表现极为强劲，展现出惊人的爆发力。ARR攀升至约30亿美元，公司一口气签下4笔大型AI云服务合同（平均每笔金额超10亿美元）。本季度签约总合同额几乎是Q1的4倍，其中新客户合同额暴增逾9倍，印证了其在全球AI算力短缺背景下的强大获客能力。尤为亮眼的是定价权的显著增强：近期签署的AI云项目年度合同价值（ACV）超过2000万美元/MW，单位经济效益持续改善。市场的核心担忧原本在于其极高的资本密集度——为激进采购GPU和扩建数据中心，Q2资本开支高达约57亿美元。然而，融资风险已得到实质性缓解：Q2约70%的合同包含了客户预付款。管理层预计2026年全年客户预付款将超过90亿美元（对应超400亿美元的总客户承诺），这为庞大的资本开支提供了强有力的现金流缓冲，大幅降低了对股权稀释或高息债务融资的依赖。财报后股价飙升超20%，市场高度认可其EBITDA超预期、合同盈利模型改善以及更广阔的产能扩张前景。后续关键变量包括：（1）GPU采购与数据中心建设的实际交付与上线节奏；（2）巨额客户预付款的到账情况与资本开支的匹配度；（3）AI云服务的单位经济模型（如每MW利润率）；（4）5 GW电力容量目标的获取与审批进度。Nebius正迅速崛起为全球AI算力基础设施的核心玩家之一，凭借大额长协订单与创新的“客户预付款”模式，成功在重资产扩张中平衡了高增长与现金流安全。但面对科技巨头与主权基金的激烈竞争，其长期的交付执行力仍需持续验证。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：200美元至300美元。中性前景。 

 

Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) 

• 4Q26 Revenue: $17.25B, +17.6% YoY, beat estimates by $420M 

• 4Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.22, beat estimates by $0.05 

• FY27 Guidance: FY27 revenue guided to $72.2B–$73.4B, materially above consensus of approximately $68.7B. Cisco expects roughly $7.5B of FY27 AI infrastructure revenue from hyperscalers alone. 

• Dividends/Share Buybacks: Cisco continues to return capital through dividends and repurchases. The company had $14.2B remaining under its existing repurchase authorization entering the quarter. 

• Comment: This was fundamentally an excellent quarter. Revenue and EPS beat expectations, while AI infrastructure orders materially exceeded Cisco’s prior targets. The $9.3B FY26 AI order intake and $7.5B FY27 hyperscaler AI revenue outlook provide evidence that Cisco is becoming a meaningful beneficiary of the AI networking cycle rather than simply an enterprise networking recovery story. The issue is expectations. CSCO had rallied roughly 60% during 2026 heading into earnings, and shares fell more than 4% after hours despite the beat and strong FY27 revenue outlook. The market appears to have wanted another incremental AI catalyst beyond what was already embedded in the valuation. The principal variables are AI order conversion, hyperscaler networking share, Splunk-driven recurring revenue, enterprise networking recovery and gross-margin pressure from the rapidly growing AI hardware mix. 1Q27 recommended trading range: $100 to $145. Neutral Outlook. 

 

思科系统公司（CSCO) 

• 26财年第四季度营收：172.5亿美元，同比增长17.6%，超出预期4.2亿美元 

• 26财年第四季度非公认会计准则每股收益：1.22美元，小幅超出预期0.05美元 

• 27财年全年指引：营收指引为722亿–734亿美元，大幅高于市场共识的约687亿美元；预计27财年仅来自超大规模客户（hyperscalers） 

• 股息与回购：持续通过股息与回购向股东返还资本；进入本季度时，公司现有回购授权额度还剩142亿美元 

• 短评：本季度基本面表现极为出色。营收与盈利双双超预期，且AI基础设施订单大幅超出公司此前目标——26财年AI订单总额高达93亿美元。高达75亿美元的27财年超大规模客户AI收入指引，提供了强有力的证据，表明思科已实质性跃升为AI网络周期的核心受益者，而不再仅仅是传统企业级网络复苏的逻辑。然而，核心问题在于“预期透支”。思科股价在2026年财报发布前已累计大涨约60%，估值已充分计入了AI带来的乐观预期。因此，尽管业绩强劲且前瞻指引亮眼，股价盘后仍下跌超4%。这表明在当前高位下，市场期待看到超出当前估值已计入范围的、更具爆发力的增量AI催化剂，典型的“买预期，卖事实”反应。后续关键变量包括：（1）庞大AI订单向实际收入的转化效率；（2）在超大规模客户数据中心网络市场的份额争夺（面对Arista等对手）；（3）收购Splunk后驱动的经常性收入（recurring revenue）；（4）传统企业级网络客户去库存结束后的需求复苏节奏；（5）AI硬件收入占比快速提升对整体毛利率造成的潜在下行压力（硬件毛利率通常低于软件与服务）。思科正成功将其庞大的企业客户基础与AI网络基础设施需求相结合，Splunk的整合也为其注入了安全与可观测性的软件基因。基本面稳健、现金流充沛且股东回报丰厚，但在经历大幅估值修复后，短期需消化高预期带来的波动。27财年第一季度建议交易区间：100美元至145美元。中性前景。 

  

Coherent Corp. (COHR) 

• 4Q26 Revenue: $2.05B, +334.0% YoY, beat estimates by $70M 

• 4Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.74, beat estimates by $0.12 

• 1Q27 Guidance: 1Q27 revenue guided to $2.20B–$2.40B, midpoint $2.30B, well above Street expectations. Adjusted EPS guided to $1.85–$2.05, also above consensus. Non-GAAP gross margin is expected at 39.5%–41.5%.  

• Comment: This was an exceptionally strong beat-and-raise quarter. Revenue accelerated 13% QoQ and 34% YoY, while EPS growth substantially outpaced revenue as gross margin expanded. AI datacenter optics remain the core catalyst, with Coherent benefiting from the transition from copper toward optical interconnects and upcoming ramps across 1.6T transceivers, optical circuit switching and co-packaged optics. The issue is expectations rather than fundamentals. Shares had already surged about 8% during the regular session and initially weakened roughly 2%–5% after hours despite the beat and strong guide. At roughly 39x forward earnings after the substantial prior-year rally, the market is demanding continued upside revisions. The principal variables are 1.6T ramp velocity, InP capacity expansion, gross-margin progression, AI hyperscaler capex and execution on new optical platforms. 1Q27 recommended trading range: $300 to $400. Neutral Outlook. 

 

Coherent Corp.（COHR) 

• 26财年第四季度营收：20.5亿美元，同比增长34.0%（注：结合短评修正原文本334%的笔误），超出预期7000万美元 

• 26财年第四季度非公认会计准则每股收益：1.74美元，超出预期0.12美元 

• 27财年第一季度指引：营收指引为22亿–24亿美元（中值23亿美元），远高于华尔街预期；调整后EPS指引为1.85–2.05美元，高于市场共识；非GAAP毛利率预计为39.5%–41.5% 

• 短评：本季度呈现极为强劲的“超预期+上调指引”态势。营收环比加速增长13%、同比增长34%，且得益于毛利率的扩张，盈利增速大幅领先于营收增速。AI数据中心光学器件仍是核心增长引擎：Coherent正深度受益于数据中心网络从铜互连向光互连的代际更迭，并在1.6T光收发器、光电路交换机（OCS）的量产爬坡中占据先机。然而，市场博弈的焦点依然是“预期管理”。财报发布前的常规交易时段中，股价已提前大涨约8%，导致盘后尽管业绩与指引双超预期，股价仍初步回落2%–5%。在经历了前期的大幅上涨后，当前前瞻市盈率已高达约39倍，市场对其要求已不仅是“业绩达标”，而是需要持续的预期上修来支撑高估值。后续关键变量包括：（1）1.6T光收发器的量产爬坡速度与大客户导入进度；（2）上游核心材料磷化铟（InP）；（3）高附加值产品占比提升带动的毛利率扩张轨迹；（4）AI超大规模客户资本开支的持续性；（5）新一代光学平台（如CPO）。Coherent在光通信与材料科学领域具备深厚的技术壁垒，是AI算力网络不可或缺的基础设施供应商。基本面强劲且正处于技术升级的红利期，但高估值要求公司在每一个产品周期中都保持极高的执行完美度。27财年第一季度建议交易区间：300美元至400美元。中性前景。 

 

Cerebras Systems Inc. (CBRS) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $180.11M, +74.3% YoY, miss estimates by $13.44M 

• 2Q26 GAAP EPS: –$2.98, miss estimates by $1.31 

• FY26 Guidance: Raised FY26 core revenue guidance to $880M–$890M from $855M–$865M. 3Q26 core revenue is guided to $214M–$216M, above consensus of approximately $210M–$212M. Core gross-margin outlook was also raised to 41%–43%. Management continues to target roughly 3x revenue growth by 2027. 

• Comment: The underlying AI-inference story remains exceptionally strong. Core revenue doubled, cloud revenue nearly quadrupled, contracted data-center capacity reached 600 MW, and management disclosed a $25.4B future revenue pipeline. The OpenAI relationship remains the central catalyst, while partnerships with AWS and AMD broaden the ecosystem beyond a single customer. However, the headline revenue miss and deteriorating hardware sales exposed the market’s extremely high expectations. Near-term margins are also being suppressed because Cerebras is effectively renting systems back to satisfy cloud demand before owned capacity catches up. Management expects gross margin to bottom in 3Q before improving materially in 4Q. Shares fell approximately 16% after hours to around $220 despite raising FY26 guidance, after having risen about 12% during regular trading. The principal variables are OpenAI deployment execution, cloud-margin recovery, conversion of the $25.4B pipeline, 600 MW capacity ramp and competitive pressure from Nvidia/Groq. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $180 to $250. Neutral Outlook. 

 

Cerebras Systems Inc.（CBRS) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：1.801亿美元，同比增长74.3%，低于预期1344万美元 

• 26财年第二季度公认会计准则每股亏损：2.98美元，低于预期1.31美元（亏损扩大） 

• 26财年全年及Q3指引：全年核心营收指引上调至8.8亿–8.9亿美元（原为8.55亿–8.65亿美元）；Q3核心营收指引为2.14亿–2.16亿美元，高于市场共识；核心毛利率指引上调至41%–43%；管理层维持到2027年实现营收约3倍增长的长期目标。 

• 短评：本季度呈现出“底层商业逻辑极强，但短期财务表现受制于极高预期与产能瓶颈”的分化格局。核心营收同比翻倍，云业务营收翻近四倍，签约数据中心容量达600MW，且公司披露了高达254亿美元的未来营收管道（pipeline）。与OpenAI的深度合作仍是核心催化剂，同时与AWS和AMD的结盟正帮助其打破单一客户依赖，拓宽AI推理生态。然而，表面的营收miss与硬件销售放缓暴露出市场对其高估值的苛刻要求。更关键的是，短期毛利率受到压制：由于自有算力产能尚未完全跟上，Cerebras不得不通过“租回”外部系统来满足激增的云推理需求，导致短期成本上升。管理层预计毛利率将在Q3触底，并在Q4随着自有产能交付而显著改善。市场反应剧烈：股价在常规交易时段已提前上涨约12%，导致盘后即便公司上调了全年指引，仍暴跌约16%至220美元左右。这再次印证了在高估值AI硬件赛道中，“买预期、卖事实”以及资金对短期财务瑕疵零容忍的特征。后续关键变量包括：（1）OpenAI项目的实际部署与交付执行力；（2）云业务毛利率能否在Q4如期修复；（3）254亿美元庞大订单管道的转化节奏；（4）600MW数据中心容量的建设与上线进度；（5）面对英伟达（Nvidia）。Cerebras作为AI推理与晶圆级芯片的颠覆者，拥有极高的技术壁垒与惊人的长期订单能见度。但短期需跨越产能扩张带来的利润阵痛期，并承受极高的估值波动。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：180美元至250美元。中性前景。