Technical Analysis – 12 February 2025

United States | Singapore | Hong Kong | Earnings

Cleveland-Cliffs, Inc. (CLF US)

Shares closed at a high since December 2024 with a surge in volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 50dEMA.
MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
Long – Entry 11.50 Target 13.50 Stop 10.50

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Nucor Corp. (NUE US)

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Shares closed at a high since December 2024 with an increase in volume. 5dEMA recently crossed the 50dEMA.
MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
Long – Entry 136 Target 146 Stop 131

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Samudera Shipping Line Ltd. (SAMU SP)

Shares closed at a high since October 2024 with more volume. 20dEMA just crossed the 200dEMA.
MACD is positive, RSI is at an overbought level.
Long – Entry 0.870, Target 0.950, Stop 0.830

Venture Corp Ltd. (VMS SP)

Shares closed higher above the 50dEMA with constructive volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 20dEMA.
MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
Long – Entry 12.90 Target 13.50, Stop 12.60

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Sunny Optical Technology Group Co Ltd (2382 HK)

Shares closed at a 52-week high above the 5dEMA with an increase in volume.
MACD is constructive, while RSI is at an overbought level.
Long – Entry 84, Target 92, Stop 80

Kingdee International Software Group Co Ltd (268 HK)

Shares closed at a 52-week high above the 5dEMA with rising volume.
MACD is constructive, while RSI is at an overbought level.
Long – Entry 13.0 Target 14.0, Stop 12.5

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McDonald’s Corp. (MCD)

4Q24 Revenue: $6.39B, -0.3% YoY, miss estimates by $90M
4Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.83, miss estimates by $0.03
4Q24 Dividend: McDonald’s declares $1.77/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous; Forward yield 2.41%; Payable March 17; for shareholders of record March 3; ex-div March 3.
FY25 Guidance: No financial guidance provided. The company plans to spend between US$3 billion and US$3.2 billion this year, adding around 3,800 restaurants, including roughly 1,000 in China and hundreds in the United States.
Comment: McDonald’s delivered weaker-than-expected results, with U.S. sales still pressured by the lingering impact of a recent food safety incident. However, international markets performed better, with both of the company’s global divisions posting same-store sales growth, helping offset domestic weakness. Encouragingly, total same-store sales turned positive after two consecutive quarters of YoY declines, rising 0.4% versus consensus expectations of -1.1%. Management anticipates a recovery in U.S. sales by early Q2, supported by continued value promotions and key menu additions. Looking ahead to 2025, McDonald’s plans to reintroduce its popular snack wraps—discontinued during the pandemic—and debut a new chicken strip offering. On the expansion front, the company expects to invest between $3 billion and $3.2 billion in 2025, opening approximately 3,800 new locations, including around 1,000 in China and several hundred in the U.S.1Q25 recommended trading range: $295 to $340. Positive Outlook.

麦当劳(MCD)

24财年第四季营收：63.9亿美元，同比下降0.3%，低于预期9000万美元
24财年第四季Non-GAAP每股盈利：2.83美元，低于预期0.03美元
24财年第四季股息：麦当劳宣布季度股息为每股1.77美元，与此前持平；远期股息收益率2.41%；股息支付日为3月17日；股权登记日为3月3日；除息日为3月3日。
25财年指引：公司未提供财务指引。预计2025年资本支出将在30亿至32亿美元之间，计划新增约3,800家门店，其中包括约1,000家位于中国，数百家位于美国。
短评：麦当劳24财年第四季度业绩逊于预期，美国市场销售仍受近期食品安全事件的影响。然而，国际市场表现较好，公司全球两个业务部门均实现同店销售增长，一定程度上抵消了美国市场的疲软。值得关注的是，在连续两个季度同比下降后，总体同店销售额重新转正，同比增长0.4%，好于市场预期的-1.1%。管理层预计，美国市场销售将在第二季度初复苏，受益于持续的促销活动和关键菜单更新。展望2025年，麦当劳计划重新推出疫情期间停产的热门小吃卷（Snack Wraps），并推出新的鸡柳产品（Chicken Strips）。在扩张方面，公司预计2025年资本支出将在30亿至32亿美元之间，计划新增约3,800家门店，其中约1,000家位于中国，数百家位于美国。25财年第一季建议交易区间：295美元至340美元。积极前景。

ON Semiconductor Corp. (ON)

4Q24 Revenue: $1.73B, -14.6% YoY, miss estimates by $30M
4Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.95, miss estimates by $0.02
1Q25 Guidance: Expects adjusted revenue to be between $1.35bn to $1.45bn, midpoint of $1.40bn below consensus of $1.69bn; expects gross margin to be 39.0% to 41.0%; expects operating expenses to be between $313.0mn to $328.0mn; expects adjusted EPS to be between $0.45 to $0.55, midpoint of $0.50 below consensus of $0.90.
Comment: ON Semiconductor Corp reported disappointing results and issued weak guidance, citing broad-based revenue declines across all three of its business segments. Management attributed the weakness to persistent inventory buildups among automakers and manufacturers, who currently have more chips than needed for expected production. The company pointed to several macroeconomic and industry headwinds, including sluggish auto demand in Europe, potential policy risks such as former President Donald Trump’s threat to eliminate electric vehicle tax credits, and new White House-imposed tariffs. These factors are expected to weigh on the company’s performance going forward. The weak guidance reflects ongoing softness and declining demand into 2025. Broader industry trends also indicate weakness, with competitors like NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) reporting quarter-over-quarter declines in auto chip sales for Q4 2024. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $40 to $50. Negative Outlook.

ON Semiconductor Corp (ON)

24财年第四季营收：17.3亿美元，同比下降14.6%，低于预期3000万美元
24财年第四季调整后Non-GAAP每股盈利：0.95美元，低于预期0.02美元
25财年第一季指引：预计调整后营收在13.5亿至14.5亿美元之间，中值14.0亿美元低于市场预期的16.9亿美元；预计毛利率在39.0%至41.0%之间；预计运营费用在3.13亿至3.28亿美元之间；预计调整后每股盈利在0.45美元至0.55美元之间，中值0.50美元低于市场预期的0.90美元。
短评：ON Semiconductor Corp公布令人失望的业绩，并发布疲软指引，公司三大业务部门的收入均同比下降。管理层将疲软表现归因于汽车制造商和厂商库存积压，导致目前对芯片需求疲软。公司指出，欧洲汽车市场需求低迷、前总统唐纳德·特朗普威胁取消电动车税收抵免、新一轮白宫关税等宏观经济和行业不利因素，将持续对公司业绩构成压力。疲弱的指引反映出需求疲软的趋势预计将持续至2025年。行业整体亦面临挑战，竞争对手NXP Semiconductors（恩智浦）同样报告其2024年第四季度汽车芯片销售额环比下降。25财年第一季建议交易区间：40美元至50美元。负面前景。

Astera Labs Inc. (ALAB)

4Q24 Revenue: $141.1M, +179.4% YoY, beat estimates by $13.19M
4Q24 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.37, beat estimates by $0.11
1Q25 Guidance: Expects revenue to be between $151M to $155M, a 7% – 10% increase YoY, an adjusted $0.29 a share on sales of midpoint of $153M. Wall Street estimates earnings of $0.25 a share on sales of $133.8M.
FY25 Guidance: Expect Scorpio revenue to comprise at least 10% of total revenue for 2025, with acceleration exiting the year.
Comment: Astera Labs Inc reported record 4Q24 revenue of US$141.1mn, a 179% YoY increase, and full-year sales of US$396mn, up 242%. Its Q4 non-GAAP gross margin stood at 74.1%, with operating margins improving to 34.3%. Astera Lab’s growth was driven by strong demand for AI and cloud infrastructure connectivity solutions, expansion of product lines, and investments in R&D. Astera Labs increased its workforce by 80% and made a strategic acquisition to strengthen its technology capabilities. The company continues to scale R&D investments while maintaining strong revenue growth. For 1Q25, it provided revenue guidance of US$151mn to US$155mn, signalling continued growth. Looking ahead, 2025 is expected to be a breakout year, fuelled by production revenue from all four product families, increasing adoption of its high-speed connectivity solutions, and new AI accelerator platforms. Additionally, emerging industry standards like UALink and the rising demand for AI infrastructure present further growth opportunities. However, despite its planned aggressive expansion in the high-speed connectivity market, Astera Labs may face margin pressures from intensifying competition. Moreover, changing consumer preferences and rapid technological advancements require continuous innovation and investment, potentially impacting profitability and market positioning. 1Q25 recommended trading range: $90 to $100. Neutral Outlook.

Astera Labs Inc. (ALAB)

24财年第四季营收：1.411亿美元，同比增长179.4%，超出预期1319万美元
24财年第四季GAAP每股盈利：0.37美元，超出预期0.11美元
25财年第一季指引：预计收入在1.51亿美元至1.55亿美元之间，同比增长7%-10%，调整后每股收益0.29美元（基于中位数1.53亿美元的销售额）。华尔街预期每股收益0.25美元，销售额1.338亿美元。
25财年指引：预计Scorpio产品收入将在2025年占比至少10%，并将在年底加速增长。
短评：Astera Labs Inc. 公布了 2024 年第四季度创纪录的收入，达 1.411 亿美元，同比增长 179%，全年销售额 3.96 亿美元，同比增长 242%。第四季度非 GAAP 毛利率为 74.1%，营业利润率提升至 34.3%。公司的增长主要受 AI 和云基础设施连接解决方案的强劲需求、产品线的扩展以及研发投资的增加所推动。此外，Astera Labs 在过去一年中员工规模增长了 80%，并完成了一项战略性收购，以增强技术实力。公司计划继续扩大研发投资，同时保持强劲的收入增长。对于 2025 年第一季度，Astera Labs 提供了 1.51 亿至 1.55 亿美元的收入指引，表明公司增长趋势持续。展望 2025 年，公司预计将迎来突破性的一年，增长动力包括四大产品线的全面投产、高速连接解决方案的广泛应用、新 AI 加速器平台的推出，以及 UALink 等新兴行业标准的出现。此外，AI 基础设施需求的不断增长也带来了进一步的发展机遇。然而，尽管 Astera Labs 计划积极扩展高速连接市场，但可能面临竞争加剧带来的利润率压力。此外，消费者偏好变化和技术的快速发展需要企业持续创新和投入，这可能影响其盈利能力和市场定位。25财年第一季建议交易区间：90美元至100美元。中性前景。