Technical Analysis: 11 September 2026

Macy’s, Inc. (M) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $4.9B, +1.1% YoY, beat estimates by $90M 

• 2Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.63, beat estimates by $0.26 

• 3Q26 Guidance: 3Q26 adjusted EPS is expected at a US$0.19–0.23 loss, materially worse than the approximately US$0.06 loss expected by consensus, as Macy’s reinvests tariff-refund benefits into the turnaround 

• FY26 Guidance: Raised FY26 net sales guidance to US$21.68–21.83B from US$21.5–21.75B, comparable-sales guidance to +1.0–1.5% from +0.5–1.2%, and adjusted EPS guidance to US$2.15–2.35 from US$2.00–2.20. 

• Comment: This was operationally a better quarter than the share-price reaction suggests. Comparable sales were positive across all three banners, Bloomingdale’s delivered its strongest second-quarter sales volume on record, and the Reimagine 200 Macy’s locations continued to outperform the broader fleet. The luxury banners remain the clearest source of structural growth, while the core Macy’s turnaround is beginning to show some evidence of stabilization. The key issue is earnings quality and the weak Q3 setup. The US$0.63 adjusted EPS headline was heavily assisted by tariff refunds, and management plans to reinvest approximately US$0.18/share of the Q2 benefit during 2H26. That helps explain why shares fell despite the raised full-year outlook. The market is effectively being asked to look through near-term earnings pressure and believe that higher store investment, merchandising and luxury growth can create a more durable earnings base. At the current ~US$20.50 share price, valuation is inexpensive at roughly 9x the midpoint of FY26 adjusted EPS guidance, but that discount reflects a still-fragile core Macy’s franchise and uncertain turnaround payback. Shares fell approximately 4.8% following the results. The principal variables to monitor are Macy’s core comparable sales, Reimagine 200 productivity, Bloomingdale’s growth, gross margin excluding tariff refunds, Q3 reinvestment returns, discretionary consumer spending and any acceleration in store closures or real-estate monetisation. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $18 to $24. Neutral Outlook. 

梅西百货（M) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：49亿美元，同比增长1.1%，超出预期9000万美元 

• 26财年第二季度非公认会计准则每股收益：0.63美元，大幅超出预期0.26美元 

• 26财年第三季度指引：调整后EPS预计亏损0.19–0.23美元，显著差于市场共识的约亏损0.06美元（主要因公司将关税退款红利再投资于业务转型）。 

• 26财年全年指引：全年净销售指引上调至216.8亿–218.3亿美元（此前为215亿–217.5亿美元）；同店销售指引上调至+1.0%–1.5%（此前为+0.5%–1.2%）；调整后EPS指引上调至2.15–2.35美元（此前为2.00–2.20美元）。 

• 短评：本季度在运营层面的实际表现，要好于股价所反映的悲观情绪。核心亮点：旗下三大业务线（banners）的同店销售均实现正增长。其中，Bloomingdale’s（布鲁明戴尔百货店），成为最清晰的结构性增长引擎；同时，“重塑200家梅西百货门店（Reimagine 200）”计划内的门店表现持续优于整体大盘，表明核心主业的转型已开始显现出企稳的迹象。核心隐忧（盈利质量与疲软的Q3前瞻）：0.63美元的调整后EPS在很大程度上得益于关税退款的短期粉饰。管理层明确表示，计划在26年下半年将约0.18美元/股的Q2红利再投资于门店升级与业务转型。这直接导致了Q3指引的疲软，也解释了为何在全年指引上调的背景下，财报后股价依然下跌约4.8%。市场目前被要求“看穿”短期的盈利压力，并相信更高的门店投资、商品优化及奢侈品增长最终能构筑更持久的盈利底座。估值博弈：以约20.50美元的股价计算，对应26财年调整后EPS中值的前瞻市盈率仅约9倍，估值十分低廉。但这一显著的估值折价，真实反映了核心梅西百货业务依然脆弱，且转型投资的回报期存在不确定性。后续关键变量包括：（1）梅西百货核心主业的同店销售表现；（2）“重塑200家门店”计划的单店产出与效率提升；（3）Bloomingdale’s的增长动能与扩张进度；（4）剔除关税退款后的常态化毛利率；（5）Q3利润再投资对下半年客流与转化的实际拉动效果；（6）宏观非必需品消费支出趋势；（7）低效门店关闭或底层房地产资产变现（real-estate monetisation）。梅西百货在高端品牌（Bloomingdale’s）的强劲带动下展现了结构性亮点，且核心主业的转型初现企稳曙光。极低的估值提供了较厚的安全边际，但短期关税红利的再投资与核心业务的脆弱性压制了估值修复的速度，需等待转型投资转化为实质性的同店客流回升。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：18美元至24美元。中性前景。 

Oracle Corporation (ORCL) 

• 1Q27 Revenue: $19.35B, +29.7% YoY, beat estimates by $220M 

• 1Q27 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.92, beat estimates by $0.18 

• 2Q27 Guidance: Management expects revenue growth of approximately 30–34% and adjusted EPS of US$1.85–1.93. Oracle also signed more than US$30B of new AI-cloud contracts during Q1, supporting continued triple-digit OCI growth 

• FY27 Guidance: Raised FY27 adjusted EPS guidance to approximately US$8.10 from US$8.05, while maintaining revenue expectations of at least US$90B 

• Dividends/Share Buybacks: Oracle continues to pay a quarterly dividend of US$0.50/share. Capital allocation remains dominated by AI infrastructure investment rather than buybacks, with FY27 requiring substantial data-center spending and external financing 

• Comment: This was a strong beat-and-raise quarter. The most important numbers were 121% OCI growth and US$664B of RPO, confirming that Oracle continues to take share in AI infrastructure despite concerns around hyperscaler competition. More than US$30B of incremental AI cloud contracts were signed during the quarter, while the scale of contracted backlog provides unusually strong multi-year revenue visibility. Oracle’s combination of OCI, database workloads and multicloud deployment also differentiates it from pure AI-compute providers. The key issue remains capital intensity. Q1 capex reached US$28.5B and free cash flow was negative US$5.4B, although this was materially better than the approximately US$9.6B negative FCF expected by the market. Importantly, US$11.36B of Q1 capex was offset by customer prepayments, and management indicated that much of the new AI backlog does not require Oracle to finance all of the underlying hardware itself. This materially reduces one of the biggest concerns surrounding the AI buildout. Oracle closed down 5.4% at US$152.94 ahead of earnings amid a broader rate-driven technology selloff, before rebounding approximately 6.6% after hours to around US$163 following the results. The principal variables to monitor are OCI growth, conversion of the US$664B RPO, AI contract additions, capex versus customer prepayments, free-cash-flow normalization and progress toward the US$90B+ FY27 revenue target. 2Q27 recommended trading range: $150 to $185. Positive Outlook. 

Oracle Corporation（ORCL) 

• 27财年第一季度营收：193.5亿美元，同比增长29.7%，超出预期2.2亿美元 

• 27财年第一季度非公认会计准则每股收益：1.92美元，超出预期0.18美元 

• 27财年第二季度指引：管理层预计营收增长约30%–34%；调整后EPS预计为1.85–1.93美元；一季度新签署超过300亿美元AI云合同，支撑OCI继续维持三位数增长。 

• 27财年全年指引：上调全年调整后EPS指引至约8.10美元（此前约8.05美元）；维持全年营收至少900亿美元的目标。 

• 股息与回购：继续派发每股0.50美元的季度股息。资本配置重心仍以AI基础设施投资为主，而非大规模回购；27财年仍需要巨额数据中心支出与外部融资支持。 

• 短评：本季度呈现强劲的“超预期+小幅上调指引”态势。核心亮点：最关键的数据是OCI收入同比增长121%，以及高达6640亿美元的RPO（剩余履约义务）。这证明Oracle在AI基础设施市场中持续抢占份额，尽管外界此前担忧其会在AWS、Azure、Google Cloud等超大规模云厂商的竞争中承压。一季度新签署超过300亿美元的AI云合同，庞大的合同积压为未来多年收入提供了极高能见度。Oracle的差异化优势在于其并非单纯的AI算力供应商，而是将OCI、数据库工作负载与多云部署深度结合，形成了更具粘性的企业级云生态。核心隐忧仍是资本开支强度：一季度资本开支高达285亿美元，自由现金流为负54亿美元。不过，该表现已明显好于市场此前预期的约负96亿美元FCF。更重要的是，Q1资本开支中有113.6亿美元由客户预付款抵消；管理层还表示，新签AI积压订单中相当一部分并不要求Oracle独自承担全部底层硬件融资。这显著缓解了市场对AI数据中心扩张“烧钱无底洞”的最大担忧之一。市场反应：受利率驱动的科技股抛售影响，Oracle在财报前收跌5.4%至152.94美元；财报发布后，股价盘后反弹约6.6%至约163美元，显示投资者对OCI增速、AI合同及资本开支结构的改善给予积极反馈。后续关键变量包括：（1）OCI增长能否维持高位；（2）6640亿美元RPO向实际收入的转化节奏；（3）新增AI云合同规模；（4）资本开支与客户预付款之间的匹配程度；（5）自由现金流正常化路径；（6）90B美元以上FY27营收目标的兑现进度。Oracle正凭借OCI、数据库和多云生态成功转型为AI云基础设施核心受益者。尽管资本开支仍然庞大，但客户预付款和更优融资结构显著降低了现金流压力，强化了其AI云长期成长逻辑。27财年第二季度建议交易区间：150美元至185美元。积极前景。 

Adobe Inc. (ADBE) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: $6.76B, +12.9% YoY, beat estimates by $60M 

• 3Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $6.13, beat estimates by $0.04 

• 4Q26 Guidance: Revenue is guided to US$6.80–6.85B and adjusted EPS to US$6.30–6.35. However, the Q4 revenue midpoint is slightly below consensus, which limited enthusiasm around the otherwise strong quarter 

• FY26 Guidance: Raised FY26 revenue guidance to US$26.576–26.626B and non-GAAP EPS to US$24.45–24.50, with ending ARR growth targeted at 10.2% YoY 

• Comment: This was a solid beat-and-raise quarter, but not enough to fully resolve the market’s AI-disruption concerns. The strongest datapoint was AI-first product revenue more than doubling YoY, which shows Adobe is monetising generative AI rather than merely absorbing incremental compute costs. Firefly, Acrobat AI and broader enterprise adoption should help defend Adobe’s installed base while creating incremental usage and pricing opportunities. The key issue remains growth versus competition. Q4 revenue guidance is slightly below consensus, while Adobe faces intensifying competition from Figma, Canva and increasingly capable generative-AI creation tools. Leadership transition also adds another layer of uncertainty, with Anil Chakravarthy set to become CEO on December 1. The valuation, however, has compressed substantially: at the current ~US$249 price, Adobe trades at roughly 10x FY26 adjusted EPS guidance and about 14x trailing GAAP earnings, which is inexpensive relative to its historical profile. Shares fell approximately 2.4% despite the beat and raised full-year targets. The principal variables to monitor are AI-first product revenue growth, total ARR growth, Firefly monetisation, Creative subscription growth, enterprise AI adoption, competitive pressure from Figma/Canva and whether the new CEO can restore confidence in long-term growth. 4Q26 recommended trading range: $230 to $285. Neutral Outlook. 

Adobe Inc.（ADBE) 

• 26财年第三季度营收：67.6亿美元，同比增长12.9%，超出预期6000万美元 

• 26财年第三季度非公认会计准则每股收益：6.13美元，微幅超出预期0.04美元 

• 26财年第四季度指引：营收预计为68.0亿–68.5亿美元，调整后EPS为6.30–6.35美元；值得注意的是，Q4营收指引中值略低于市场共识，一定程度上限制了市场的做多热情。 

• 26财年全年指引：上调全年营收指引至265.76亿–266.26亿美元；非GAAP EPS上调至24.45–24.50美元；期末年度经常性收入（ARR）增长目标设定为同比增长10.2%。 

• 短评：本季度呈现稳健的“超预期+上调指引”态势，但仍不足以完全消除市场对“AI颠覆传统创意软件”的长期担忧。核心亮点：最强劲的数据点在于AI优先（AI-first），这有力证明了Adobe正在成功将生成式AI进行商业变现，而不仅仅是被动承担额外的算力成本。Firefly、Acrobat AI以及更广泛的企业级应用，不仅有助于稳固其庞大的存量用户基本盘，更为其创造了增量使用场景与潜在的定价提升空间（如Creative Firefly高级订阅）。核心隐忧（增长瓶颈与竞争加剧）：Q4营收指引略低于市场共识。同时，Adobe正面临来自Figma、Canva以及各类新兴生成式AI创作工具的激烈竞争，底层创意工作流的入口正在被分流。此外，领导层交接也带来了一层不确定性，阿尼尔·查克拉瓦蒂（Anil Chakravarthy）将于12月1日正式接任CEO，市场需观察新帅的战略定力与执行效率。估值与市场反应：尽管业绩超预期且上调了全年目标，财报后股价仍下跌约2.4%。然而，其估值已遭遇大幅压缩：以当前约249美元的股价计算，仅对应约10倍的26财年调整后EPS指引，以及约14倍的滚动GAAP市盈率。相较于其历史估值中枢，这一估值水平已显得相当低廉，提供了较厚的安全边际。后续关键变量包括：（1）AI原生/优先产品收入的增速与变现效率；（2）整体ARR（年度经常性收入）；（3）Firefly模型的商业化渗透与提价能力；（4）Creative Cloud核心订阅业务的留存与增长；（5）企业级AI解决方案（如GenStudio）；（6）来自Figma、Canva等轻量级/协作类工具的竞争压力；（7）新任CEO能否重塑市场对其长期增长引擎的信心。Adobe 凭借深厚的创意工作流壁垒与庞大的企业级客户基础，正努力将AI从“颠覆者”转化为自身的“赋能工具”，且当前的估值压缩已计入了大量悲观预期。但在面临激烈竞争与领导层更迭的过渡期，其估值修复仍需等待AI变现数据的持续验证与新管理层的战略落地。26财年第四季度建议交易区间：230美元至285美元。中性前景。