Technical Analysis: 11 August 2026

Rocket Lab Corporation (RKLB) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $234.06M, +62.0% YoY, beat estimates by $3.12M 

• 2Q26 GAAP EPS: -$0.08, in-line with estimates  

• 3Q26 Guidance: 3Q26 revenue guided to $250M–$265M, materially above consensus of approximately $238.5M and implying another record quarter. Backlog reached a record $2.36B, +137% YoY, while management said more than $1B of additional contracts had already been signed in Q3. 

• Comment: This was a strong operating quarter. The combination of record revenue, 62% growth, a $2.36B backlog and Q3 guidance substantially above consensus suggests Rocket Lab is transitioning from a predominantly launch-driven story toward a much larger defense and space-systems platform. The $266M U.S. Space Force contract further strengthens revenue visibility. The key issue remains valuation and Neutron execution. Rocket Lab is still loss-making, while the market is assigning substantial value to Neutron becoming a commercially viable medium-lift competitor. Any schedule slippage, development-cost escalation or unsuccessful early flights would therefore have an outsized valuation impact. The announced $54/share acquisition of Iridium also materially increases the scale and complexity of the investment case. Shares fell after hours despite the revenue beat and strong Q3 guide, indicating that expectations entering the print were already exceptionally high. The principal variables are Neutron milestones, backlog conversion, Space Systems margins, defense-contract wins and cash burn. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $60 to $100. Neutral Outlook. 

 

Rocket Lab Corporation（RKLB) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：2.34亿美元，同比增长62.0%，超出预期312万美元 

• 26财年第二季度公认会计准则每股亏损：0.08美元，符合预期 

• 26财年第三季度指引：营收指引为2.5亿–2.65亿美元，远高于市场共识的约2.385亿美元，暗示将再创单季历史新高；积压订单（backlog），管理层透露第三季度已新签超10亿美元的额外合同 

• 短评：本季度运营表现极为强劲。创纪录的营收、62%的高增速、庞大的订单储备以及远超预期的前瞻指引，共同表明Rocket Lab正成功从单一的“火箭发射服务商”，向更庞大的“国防与太空系统综合平台”转型。此前斩获的2.66亿美元美国太空军合同，进一步夯实了长期收入能见度。然而，核心风险在于高估值与Neutron火箭的执行不确定性。公司目前仍处于亏损状态，而当前市值已高度计入了中型可重复使用火箭Neutron成功商业化的乐观预期。在此背景下，任何研发进度延期、成本超支或早期试飞受挫，都将对估值造成不成比例的巨大冲击。此外，公司宣布的收购铱星通讯（Iridium），大幅提升了业务体量，但也显著增加了投资逻辑的整合难度与复杂性。尽管基本面全面超预期，盘后股价依然下跌，表明财报前市场对其定价已极度饱满，出现了典型的“利好出尽”反应。后续关键变量包括：（1）Neutron火箭的关键研发、测试与首飞里程碑；（2）庞大backlog向实际收入的转化效率；（3）太空系统业务（Space Systems）；（4）国防与政府合同的持续获取能力；（5）现金消耗速度及潜在的股权稀释风险。Rocket Lab在商业航天领域具备极高的稀缺性与成长潜力，但高估值要求管理层在重大项目中保持极高的执行完美度。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：60美元至100美元。中性前景。 

 

AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $31.52M, +2617.2% YoY, miss estimates by $2.88M 

• 2Q26 GAAP EPS: –$0.77, miss estimates by $0.48 

• FY26 Guidance: Management raised FY26 revenue guidance to US$150M–US$200M and reported a commercial and government backlog of approximately US$1.3B. AST expects to begin beta direct-to-device service with mobile-network partners later in 2026 and has partnerships with more than 60 mobile operators representing over 3 billion subscribers. 

• Comment: This was a mixed quarter. The reported financials disappointed, with both revenue and EPS missing expectations, reflecting the fact that AST remains in the investment phase rather than the commercialization phase. However, the underlying business continued to progress meaningfully. The company now has 13 BlueBird satellites in orbit after its latest launch, backlog increased to US$1.3B, and management raised full-year revenue guidance despite the quarterly miss. The key debate remains execution versus valuation. AST is transitioning from a pre-revenue satellite developer into a communications operator, but investors are now demanding evidence that satellite launches translate into recurring commercial revenue. The company also continues to burn cash, although it entered the quarter with approximately US$2.7B of liquidity after recent financing, providing a substantial runway for constellation deployment. Shares fell roughly 4% following the results as investors focused on the earnings miss despite stronger long-term guidance. The principal variables to monitor are the start of commercial beta service, additional BlueBird launches, backlog conversion into recurring service revenue, government contract wins, and operating cash burn. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $55 to $75. Neutral Outlook. 

 

AST SpaceMobile, Inc.（ASTS) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：3152万美元，同比暴增2617.2%，但低于预期288万美元 

• 26财年第二季度公认会计准则每股亏损：0.77美元，低于预期0.48美元（亏损扩大） 

• 26财年全年指引：全年营收指引上调至1.5亿–2亿美元；商业与政府积压订单（backlog）；预计2026年晚些时候与移动网络合作伙伴启动Beta版手机直连卫星（direct-to-device）；已与60多家移动运营商达成合作，覆盖全球超30亿潜在用户 

• 短评：本季度财务表现呈现“高增长预期与短期亏损并存”的混合态势。营收与EPS双双不及预期，凸显公司目前仍处于重资产投资与星座部署阶段，尚未进入规模化商业变现期。然而，底层业务进展显著：随着最新一批卫星入轨，在轨BlueBird卫星数量已达13颗；高达13亿美元的积压订单及全年营收指引的上调，证明其技术可行性与商业需求已获实质性认可。核心博弈点在于“执行与估值的匹配度”：AST正经历从“卫星研发制造商”向“电信运营服务商”的关键跨越。市场不再仅仅为“发射成功”买单，而是要求看到卫星网络转化为经常性服务收入（recurring revenue）的切实证据。资金面上，尽管仍在持续烧钱，但得益于近期融资，公司手握约27亿美元的充裕流动性，为后续大规模星座部署提供了坚实的资金跑道，短期内无稀释股权的融资压力。财报后股价微跌约4%，反映短期资金对盈利miss的敏感，但长期逻辑依然稳固。后续关键变量包括：（1）Beta版商业直连服务能否如期启动并验证网络质量与用户体验；（2）后续BlueBird卫星的发射与组网进度；（3）13亿美元积压订单向经常性服务收入的转化节奏；（4）政府与国防合同的拓展情况；（5）运营现金消耗速度及资本开支效率。AST SpaceMobile作为“手机直连卫星”赛道的稀缺标的，拥有极高的技术壁垒与庞大的潜在市场（TAM）。若星座部署与商业化落地顺利，有望迎来估值与业绩的双击；但短期内仍需忍受高资本开支与盈利波动。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：55美元至75美元。中性前景。 

 

Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $5.61M, beat estimates by $0.46M 

• 2Q26 GAAP EPS: –$0.05, miss estimates by $0.01 

• FY26 Guidance: Management highlighted a contract backlog of approximately US$42.5M, expected to support activity through at least 3Q27, assuming no additional contract wins. The company also announced multiple commercial milestones, including Dirac-3 installations, NeuraWave deployments, and continued expansion of its U.S. photonics manufacturing capability following the NHanced Semiconductors acquisition.  

• Comment: This was a constructive quarter despite the slight EPS miss. Revenue increased dramatically from the prior year, backlog nearly tripled from the end of 1Q26, and management demonstrated progress across multiple commercial products rather than relying solely on research contracts. The NHanced Semiconductors acquisition significantly expands QCi’s integrated photonics manufacturing capability and provides a clearer commercialization pathway beyond pure quantum computing. The key issue remains execution and valuation. QUBT is still an early-stage company with negative earnings and highly lumpy revenue recognition. While the US$42.5M backlog materially improves visibility, investors will want evidence that backlog consistently converts into revenue and that manufacturing scale can support higher margins. Following the earnings release, shares traded modestly lower as the EPS miss offset the strong revenue performance. The principal variables to monitor are backlog conversion, additional commercial orders, utilization of the new photonics manufacturing facilities, gross-margin progression, and cash burn. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $7.50 to $10.0. Neutral Outlook. 

 

Quantum Computing Inc.（QUBT) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：561万美元，同比大幅增长，超出预期46万美元 

• 26财年第二季度公认会计准则每股亏损：0.05美元，略低于预期0.01美元（亏损微扩） 

• 业务指引与进展：积压订单（backlog），预计可支撑业务活动至少至2027年第三季度（假设无新增订单）；公布多项商业里程碑，包括Dirac-3系统安装、NeuraWave产品部署；收购NHanced Semiconductors后，持续扩大美国本土的光子制造产能。 

• 短评：本季度基本面呈现积极的建设性态势，尽管盈利微幅不及预期。营收同比实现大幅增长，且积压订单较Q1末近乎翻了近三倍，表明公司正逐步摆脱对单一研究类合同的依赖，向多元化商业产品落地迈进。战略层面的最大亮点是对NHanced Semiconductors的收购。这不仅显著提升了QCi的集成光子制造能力，更为其跨越纯量子计算领域、探索更清晰的商业化变现路径（如光通信、传感等应用）提供了坚实的硬件与产能支撑。然而，核心挑战仍在于执行力与估值匹配度。作为一家早期硬科技公司，QUBT仍处于亏损状态，且受制于项目交付节奏，收入确认具有高度的不均匀性（lumpy）。4250万美元的backlog虽显著提升了收入能见度，但投资者仍需看到这些订单稳定转化为实际收入，以及制造规模效应能否实质性带动毛利率提升。财报后股价小幅走低，EPS的微小miss在一定程度上抵消了强劲营收表现带来的利好，反映市场对早期科技股的盈利要求依然苛刻。后续关键变量包括：（1）积压订单向实际收入的转化效率；（2）新增商业订单的获取与签约能力；（3）新光子制造设施的产能利用率；（4）毛利率的改善轨迹；（5）现金消耗速度（cash burn）。Quantum Computing Inc. 在光子与量子计算交叉领域具备独特的技术卡位，商业化进程正在加速。但作为早期微盘科技股，其业绩波动大、盈利拐点尚远，股价表现将高度依赖订单交付与产能爬坡的兑现度。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：7.50美元至10.0美元。中性前景。 

 

Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (HIMS) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $753.21M, +38.3% YoY, beat estimates by $23.09M 

• 2Q26 GAAP EPS: –$0.37, miss estimates by $0.32 

• FY26 Guidance: Raised FY26 revenue guidance to US$3.1B–US$3.3B from US$2.8B–US$3.0B previously. 3Q26 revenue is expected at US$880M–US$900M, well above Street expectations. Management also raised its adjusted EBITDA outlook and reiterated confidence in reaching at least US$6.5B of annual revenue by 2030. 

• Comment: This was another exceptional top-line quarter. Revenue grew 38%, subscriber growth remained robust, and average revenue per user continued to climb as weight-loss products, diagnostics, hormone therapy and international expansion drove higher spending per customer. The guidance increase was substantial, indicating management remains confident that demand is accelerating. The key issue is profitability. The strategic shift from compounded GLP-1 products to branded weight-loss medications significantly increased costs, leading to a much larger-than-expected quarterly loss. Gross margins compressed, operating expenses rose 48%, and management now expects profitability to return only in 2027. The company also faces FTC litigation related to privacy practices, creating an additional overhang. Despite the raised guidance, shares fell about 5%–6% after earnings as investors focused on deteriorating earnings quality. The principal variables to monitor are gross-margin recovery, monetisation of branded GLP-1 offerings, subscriber growth after the Eucalyptus acquisition, international execution, and progress toward restoring profitability. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $25 to $38. Neutral Outlook. 

 

Hims & Hers Health, Inc.（HIMS)  

• 26财年第二季度营收：7.532亿美元，同比增长38.3%，超出预期2309万美元 

• 26财年第二季度公认会计准则每股亏损：0.37美元，低于预期0.32美元（亏损显著扩大） 

• 26财年全年指引：上调全年营收指引至31亿–33亿美元（原为28亿–30亿美元）；Q3营收预计为8.8亿–9.0亿美元，远高于市场预期；上调调整后EBITDA预期，并重申对2030年实现至少65亿美元年收入的长期信心。 

• 短评：本季度顶层营收表现依然极为出色。营收大增38%，订阅用户增长稳健，ARPU（单用户平均收入），主要得益于减肥产品、诊断检测、激素疗法及国际扩张驱动的单客消费提升。大幅上调的营收指引表明管理层对需求加速增长充满信心。然而，核心痛点在于盈利能力的急剧恶化：公司战略从销售复合GLP-1药物转向正规品牌减肥药，导致采购与运营成本大幅攀升，季度亏损远超预期。毛利率受压，运营支出同比激增48%，管理层坦言盈利拐点将推迟至2027年。此外，公司目前还面临联邦贸易委员会（FTC），为基本面蒙上了一层合规阴影。尽管营收指引大幅上调，财报后股价仍下跌约5%–6%，反映投资者对“增收不增利”及盈利质量下滑的担忧。在经历了前期的高增长预期后，市场开始重新审视其向高合规成本模式转型带来的长期利润率压力。后续关键变量包括：（1）毛利率能否随规模效应与产品组合优化而回升；（2）品牌GLP-1产品的变现效率与用户留存率；（3）收购Eucalyptus后，国际市场的用户增长与本地化执行力；（4）FTC诉讼等合规风险的化解进展；（5）向2027年盈利目标迈进的实质性降本增效步伐。Hims & Hers 在个性化医疗与消费级健康领域具备强大的品牌力与获客能力，但向正规品牌药转型的阵痛期带来了沉重的短期财务压力。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：25美元至38美元。中性前景。 

 

AAON, Inc. (AAON) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $627M, +101.2% YoY, beat estimates by $124M 

• 2Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.69, beat estimates by $0.20  

• FY26 Guidance: Raised FY26 revenue guidance to $2.235B–$2.307B from $2.019B–$2.091B, implying a major acceleration versus its prior outlook. However, gross-margin expectations were reduced by roughly 200 bps as AAON absorbs costs associated with rapidly expanding manufacturing capacity. 

• Dividends/Share Buybacks: AAON continues to pay a quarterly cash dividend 

• Comment: This was an exceptional demand quarter. Revenue more than doubled and materially exceeded expectations, driven increasingly by BASX and data-center cooling. The structural story remains attractive: AAON is emerging as a direct beneficiary of hyperscaler AI infrastructure spending as higher rack densities drive demand for specialized air and liquid cooling systems. The issue is execution and margins rather than demand. AAON is scaling manufacturing aggressively to satisfy its backlog, but the resulting startup costs, labor inefficiencies and capacity investments are temporarily diluting gross margin. The lowered margin outlook therefore overshadowed the large revenue beat and guidance raise. Shares initially jumped about 7%–11% pre-market but reversed sharply and closed 5.9% at $89.24. That reaction suggests investors are now demanding evidence that extraordinary data-center revenue growth can translate into operating leverage. The principal variables are BASX data-center backlog conversion, liquid-cooling demand, gross-margin recovery and execution of new capacity. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $80 to $100. Neutral Outlook. 

 

AAON, Inc.（AAON)  

• 26财年第二季度营收：6.27亿美元，同比增长101.2%，大幅超出预期1.24亿美元 

• 26财年第二季度非公认会计准则每股收益：0.69美元，显著超出预期0.20美元 

• 26财年全年指引：全年营收指引大幅上调至22.35亿–23.07亿美元（原为20.19亿–20.91亿美元），暗示增长较此前预期显著加速；但由于需吸收快速扩张制造产能的相关成本，毛利率预期下调约200个基点 

• 股息：维持季度现金股息派发 

• 短评：本季度需求表现极为强劲，营收翻倍以上并大幅超预期，主要受旗下BASX业务及数据中心冷却需求的爆发式增长驱动。其结构性投资逻辑依然极具吸引力：随着AI算力机架密度的不断提升，对专业风冷与液冷系统的需求激增，AAON正成为超大规模客户（hyperscalers）。然而，核心矛盾在于“需求爆棚与利润率承压”的错位。为满足庞大的积压订单，公司正激进扩张制造产能，但随之而来的新工厂启动成本、劳动力效率损耗及产能投资暂时稀释了毛利率。正是这一下调200个基点的利润率预期，掩盖了营收与指引大幅超预期的利好。市场反应剧烈波动：股价盘前一度大涨7%–11%，但随后急剧反转，最终收跌5.9%至89.24美元。这表明在当前估值下，投资者不再仅仅为“高增长”买单，而是要求看到数据中心营收爆发能够切实转化为运营杠杆与利润扩张的证据。后续关键变量包括：（1）BASX数据中心积压订单的交付与收入转化效率；（2）液冷系统需求的渗透率与订单落地；（3）新产能爬坡后毛利率能否如期修复并释放规模效应；（4）扩产项目的执行进度与成本控制。AAON在AI数据中心温控赛道具备稀缺性与高壁垒，长期增长动能充沛。但短期需跨越“产能扩张期的利润阵痛”，以证明其盈利兑现能力。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：80美元至100美元。中性前景。