NIKE, Inc. (NKE)
- 4Q26 Revenue: $11B, -0.9% YoY, beat estimates by $150M
- 4Q26 GAAP EPS: $0.72, beat estimates by $0.59
- FY27 Guidance: Management indicated earnings should be broadly flattish over the next two quarters, while revenue is still expected to decline near term due to tariff risk, weak consumer sentiment, and continued China pressure.
- Comment: This was a mixed quarter. Headline revenue and adjusted EPS beat expectations, and wholesale revenue rose 4% while North America returned to modest growth, which suggests parts of the turnaround are progressing. However, NIKE Direct fell 7%, Greater China declined 12%, and the profit beat was materially helped by a one-time tariff refund of about $986M. The main issue is that the underlying operating picture is still soft. Gross margin improved but would have been roughly flat without the tariff recovery, and management’s near-term outlook remains cautious. The stock fell more than 7% after the release, which shows the market focused on the still-weak core demand backdrop rather than the accounting beat. The principal variables to monitor are stabilization in China, whether wholesale momentum can offset continued DTC weakness, and whether the current product and channel reset can produce a cleaner earnings recovery without one-off benefits. 1Q27 recommended trading range: $30 to $50. Neutral Outlook.
NIKE, Inc.（NKE)
- 26财年第四季度营收：110亿美元，同比下降0.9%，但超出预期1.5亿美元
- 26财年第四季度公认会计准则每股收益：0.72美元，大幅超出预期0.59美元
- 27财年前瞻指引：管理层预计未来两个季度盈利大致持平，营收短期内仍将承压，主因关税风险、消费者信心疲软及大中华区持续低迷
- 短评：本季度表现混合，表面超预期实则内核偏弱。尽管营收与EPS双双胜出，且批发业务收入增长4%、北美市场恢复温和增长，显示部分转型举措初见成效，但NIKE Direct（直营渠道）；大中华区营收下滑12%，延续疲态。更关键的是，盈利大幅超预期主要依赖一笔约9.86亿美元的一次性关税退款——若剔除该非经常性收益，核心盈利能力实际改善有限，毛利率基本持平。管理层对近况仍持谨慎态度，未上调指引，反而强调需求环境依然疲软。市场反应负面——股价盘后下跌逾7%，表明投资者聚焦于结构性挑战而非会计层面的短期利好。后续关键变量包括：（1）大中华区需求能否企稳回升；（2）批发渠道的复苏是否足以抵消直营持续疲软；（3）产品创新与渠道优化能否在无一次性收益支撑下，驱动可持续的盈利修复。当前NIKE处于战略调整阵痛期，需更多证据证明其全球品牌势能正在实质性恢复。27财年第一季度建议交易区间：30美元至50美元。中性前景。
Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ)
- 1Q27 Revenue: $2.43B, -3.6% YoY, beat estimates by $40M
- 1Q27 Non-GAAP EPS: $3.43, beat estimates by $0.23
- FY27 Guidance: Reaffirmed FY27 adjusted EPS guidance of $11.20 to $11.90. The company also withdrew its FY28 outlook.
- Dividends/Share Buybacks: Declared a quarterly cash dividend of $1.03 per share, payable on August 13, 2026 to shareholders of record on July 30, 2026.
- Comment: This was a better-than-feared quarter. Beer remained the key support, with beer net sales up 2% to $2.28B, driven by pricing and shipment growth, while adjusted EPS came in ahead of expectations. Modelo Especial continued to gain share, and management also indicated that historically weaker demand trends among Hispanic consumers are beginning to stabilize. The main issue is that the overall operating backdrop is still uneven. Total net sales declined because of prior wine and spirits divestitures, and management pointed to gas prices and broader economic uncertainty as ongoing pressures on consumer behavior. The company maintained FY27 EPS guidance rather than raising it and withdrew FY28 guidance, which indicates limited visibility beyond the current year. Shares still rose about 3.5% to 4.0% after the release, reflecting relief that the quarter was better than feared. The principal variables to monitor are whether beer depletions improve more clearly, whether Hispanic consumer demand continues to recover, whether cost savings progress enough to support margins, and whether management regains confidence to reintroduce a longer-term outlook. 1Q27 recommended trading range: $120 to $150. Neutral Outlook.
Constellation Brands, Inc.（STZ)
- 27财年第一季度营收：24.3亿美元，同比下降3.6%，但超出预期4000万美元
- 27财年第一季度非公认会计准则每股收益：3.43美元，超出预期0.23美元
- 27财年全年指引：重申调整后EPS指引为11.20–11.90美元；撤回此前发布的28财年展望
- 股息：宣布季度现金股息每股1.03美元，将于2026年8月13日支付
- 短评：本季度表现好于市场担忧。尽管总营收因此前剥离葡萄酒与烈酒业务而下降，但核心啤酒业务稳健增长—净销售额同比增长2%至22.8亿美元，主要由提价与出货量双驱动。Modelo Especial持续抢占市场份额，且管理层指出此前疲软的西班牙裔消费者需求正显现企稳迹象，为关键客群复苏提供早期信号。盈利超预期亦反映成本管控有效。然而，整体运营环境仍不均衡：高油价与宏观经济不确定性继续抑制部分消费行为。公司选择维持而非上调全年EPS指引，并撤回FY28长期展望，凸显管理层对中期能见度的信心不足。尽管如此，财报后股价上涨3.5%–4.0%，显示投资者对“最坏情况已过”抱有期待。后续关键变量包括：（1）啤酒渠道出货量（depletions）能否加速，验证真实消费需求；（2）西班牙裔消费者支出是否持续恢复；（3）成本节约举措（如供应链优化）能否支撑利润率；（4）若宏观环境改善，公司是否会重新发布长期财务目标。当前估值反映谨慎乐观，需更多基本面确认以推动上行。27财年第一季度建议交易区间：120美元至150美元。中性前景。
