Technical Analysis – 19 September 2023 • KGI Singapore Research

Shares closed higher above the 200dEMA with constructive volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 50dEMA.
MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
Long – Entry 96.7, Target 102.7, Stop 93.7

Shares closed higher above the 20dEMA with a surge in volume. 5dEMA is about to cross the 20dEMA.
MACD just turned positive, RSI is constructive.
Long – Entry 0.900, Target 0.960, Stop 0.870

Shares closed higher above the 5dEMA with constructive volume. 5dEMA just crossed the 20dEMA.
MACD is positive, RSI is constructive.
Long – Entry 2.40 Target 2.50 Stop 2.35

Shares tested the 50dEMA, retreating below it and closed above the 20dEMA with rising volume. The 5dEMA touched the 20dEMA.
Both RSI and MACD are constructive.
Long – Entry 5.92, Target 6.50, Stop 5.63

Adobe Inc. (ADBE)

3Q23 Revenue: $4.89B, +10.4% YoY, beat estimates by $20M
3Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $4.09, beat estimates by $0.11
4Q23 Guidance: Total revenue $4.975B to $5.025B vs. consensus of $5B; Digital Media net new ARR ~$520M; Digital Media segment revenue $3.67B to $3.70B; Digital Experience segment revenue $1.25B to $1.27B; Digital Experience subscription revenue $1.11B to $1.13B; Non-GAAP Earnings per share $4.10 to $4.15 vs. consensus of $4.06.
Comment: Adobe plans to expand its use of generative AI in its suite of content creation and marketing tools. The company has already released its Firefly generative AI tool for commercial use, and it is integrating this tool into its Creative Cloud apps such as Photoshop and Illustrator. To offset the cost of developing and integrating these new features, Adobe has increased its Creative Cloud pricing plans by 6% to 10%. However, the company expects its sales to remain in line with market expectations. Demand for AI is likely to grow even more as AI becomes more integrated into people’s daily lives, and Adobe is expected to benefit from this increase in demand. With the launch of Adobe’s Firefly suite of AI tools, the company saw customers producing over 2 billion images at no additional cost. This clearly also showcased the impact and usefulness of generative AI. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $520 to $620. Positive Outlook.

奥多比 (ADBE)

23财年第三季营收：48.9亿美元, 同比增幅10.4%，超预期2,000万美元
23财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：14.09美元，超预期0.11美元
23财年第四季指引：总营收为49.75亿美元至50.25亿美元，市场预期为50亿美元；数字媒体网新增年经常性收入为5.2亿美元；数字媒体部门收入36.7亿至37.7亿美元；数字体验部门收入12.5亿至12.7亿美元;数字体验订阅收入11.1亿至11.3亿美元；Non-GAAP每股收益为4.10美元至4.15美元，市场预期为4.06美元。
短评：公司计划在其内容创作和营销工具套件中扩大对生成式人工智能的使用。该公司已经发布了用于商业用途的Firefly生成人工智能工具，并将该工具集成到其Creative Cloud应用程序(如Photoshop和Illustrator)中。为了抵消开发和集成这些新功能的成本，Adobe将其Creative Cloud的定价计划提高了6%到10%。然而，该公司预计其销售额将与市场预期保持一致。随着人工智能越来越融入人们的日常生活，人工智能的需求可能会进一步增长，公司预计将从这种需求增长中受益。随着公司的Firefly人工智能工具套件的推出，该公司看到客户在没有额外成本的情况下制作了超过20亿张图像。这也清楚地展示了生成AI的影响和有用性。24财年第三季度建议交易区间：520美元至620美元。积极前景。

Lennar Corp (LEN)

3Q23 Revenue: $8.73B, -2.2% YoY, beat estimates by $210M
3Q23 Non-GAAP EPS: $3.91, beat estimates by $0.38
4Q23 Guidance: New Orders 16,200 – 17,200; Deliveries 21,500 – 22,500; Average Sales Price Consistent with Q3 2023; Gross Margin % on Home Sales 24.4% – 24.6%; Financial Services Operating Earnings $130M – $135M.
Comment: Lennar reported better-than-expected Q3 profits, thanks to high demand for new homes due to low home inventories in the market and improved delivery times resulting from eased supply chain issues. Despite rising mortgage rates, tight housing supply, and higher home prices, the “rate-lock in” effect, where homeowners with fixed rates below 5% are unlikely to sell, has benefited home builders like Lennar. It delivered 18,559 homes in the quarter, an 8% increase YoY, with improved production times contributing to higher profit margins, which rose to 24.4%. Lennar expects flat average selling prices for homes in Q4. With the decline in revenue per square foot declining to meet market rates, which is partially offset lower material costs, and homeowners unwilling to sell, we believe that Lennar will be able to deliver on its Q4 expectations of delivering between 21,500 to 22,500 orders. 4Q23 recommended trading range: $112 to $128. Positive Outlook.

莱纳公司 (LEN)

23财年第三季营收：87.3亿美元, 同比跌幅2.2%，超预期2.1亿美元
23财年第三季Non-GAAP每股盈利：3.91美元，超预期0.38美元
23财年第四季指引：新订单数为16,200至17,200；交付量为21,500至22,500；平均销售价格与2023年第三季度一致；房屋销售毛利率%为24.4%至24.6%；金融服务营业利润1.3亿至1.35亿美元。
短评：莱纳公布的第三季度利润好于预期，这得益于市场上房屋库存较低导致的新房需求旺盛，以及供应链问题缓解导致的交货时间缩短。尽管抵押贷款利率上升，住房供应紧张，房价上涨，但“利率锁定”效应（固定利率低于5%的房主不太可能出售房屋）使莱纳这样的房屋建筑商受益。该公司第三季度交付了18,559套住房，同比增长8%，生产时间的缩短有助于提高利润率，利润率上升至24.4%。莱纳预计第四季度房屋平均售价将持平。随着每平方英尺收入的下降，部分抵消了材料成本的下降，以及房主不愿出售，我们相信公司将能够实现其第四季度交付21,500至22,500份订单的预期。24财年第三季度建议交易区间：112美元至128美元。积极前景。