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凯基每日荐股- 2021年8月30日

新加坡股票推 | 港股推荐 | 交易龙虎榜

新加坡股票推荐

天然煤矿集团 (GERL SP):印钞机

  • 买入:买入价:0.22,目标价:0.42,止损价:0.2
  • 公司是印尼主要的煤炭生产商之一。该公司在加里曼丹南部和东部拥有四个开采权。根据联合储量委员会 (Joint Reserves Committee, JORC)于2020年12月发布的合规报告,公司的两个主要煤矿总煤炭储量估计为8,400万吨。
  • 创纪录的一年。随着煤炭价格保持弹性,公司将迎来创纪录的一年。ICI 4的价格 (4200千大卡)超过了10年来的高点。尽管我们预计煤炭价格将在2021年下半年走软,但鉴于印度和中国旺盛的需求,形势有利于煤矿企业。另一方面,由于环境、社会和治理 (ESG) 压力将资本推向清洁能源,如太阳能、电动汽车、风力发电场,从而限制了煤炭供应的快速增长,煤炭市场出现供过于求的修正风险较小。 
  • 印钞机。我们估计2021年和2022年公司将产生约2.47亿美元(约合3.33亿新元)的自由现金流,超过其目前3.3亿新元的市值。我们的估计是基于2021/22年煤炭价格为58/ 50美元,2021/22年煤炭产量为1,050/1,100万吨。我们的假设产量为1,050万吨,比该集团提出的2021年将产量增加到1,200万吨的申请低12.5%。与此同时,目前ICI4期货价格远高于每吨70美元。即使考虑到国内市场义务(占产量的25%),且价格较出口价格低46%,我们对2021年和2022年每吨60美元和50美元的假设也是合理的。
  • 提高评级至跑赢大盘并提高目标价格。我们将公司评级上调至跑赢大盘,并将目标价上调至0.42新元。我们的公允价值是基于现金贴现模型和一组保守的假设:1)13.5%的贴现率,2)到2026年的六年矿山寿命,3)没有终端价值。未来两年强劲的现金流将为该集团提供通过收购实现多元化的选择。按照保守的30%派息率计算,该集团目前的平均市盈率为2.8倍,股息收益率分别为8.7%、5.8%和4.6%,均高于行业水平。
  • 阅读完整报告

ICI 4 (4,200 大卡) 印尼煤炭指数 (Argus/Coalindo)

GERL SP (Source: Bloomberg)

堡垒矿业 (FMIL SP):与铁矿石同步反弹

  • 重申买入:买入价:0.5,目标价:0.59,止损价:0.46
  • 铁矿石股。堡垒矿业公司从事铁矿精矿的勘探、开采、生产和销售。公司还从事各种商品的批发贸易;铁矿石和矿产品运输;运输设备和车辆租赁;工业砂的提取、疏浚和处理;取得矿山、采矿权、含金属土地和采石场;为运输设备和车辆提供配套服务。该公司主要向马来西亚的钢厂出售铁矿石精矿。该公司还向中国和越南出口产品。
  • 铁矿石价格回升。铁矿石价格今年的强劲上涨趋势在上月被大幅打断,当时中国敦促钢铁企业减少产量,希望减少污染。根据标准普尔的数据,中国7月份的钢铁消费制造业生产指数为91点,为5个月以来的最低点,但仍比2020年同期高出3点。尽管中国采取了上述政策,但由于有迹象显示需求出现反弹,铁矿石价格周三仍出现上涨。中国周一宣布,自7月以来首次报告没有出现新冠肺炎病例,缓解了外界对全球最大原材料消费国大宗商品需求受到巨大影响的担忧。
  • 巨大的上升空间。铁矿石价格自6月份达到1386.50美元的高点以来,已经下跌了36.6%。从上周五开始,价格开始反弹,截至昨日,总涨幅为7.9%。跌至52周低点的潜在跌幅为7.7%,这是相对保守的估计。因此,截至昨日收盘价,股市的股价自5月份的高点下跌了41.6%,从过去一周的盘整区间反弹了约19.7%。
  • 强劲的财务表现。2021财年,收入同比增长84.9%,达到6,550万美元,而净利润同比增长182.2%,达到2,510万美元。22财年第1季度的财务表现依然强劲,收入同比增长143.8%,达到1,730万美元。第一季度 (财年年终为2月)收入已经占到2021财年全年收入的约36.3%。此外,22年第一季度的平均售价为143美元,同比增长61.6%。

铁矿石价格

FMIL SP (Source: Bloomberg)


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港股推荐

中国海洋石油 (883 HK):一只市盈率仅为6倍,股息率为10%的超便宜股

  • 买入:买入价:7.7,目标价:8.5,止损价:7.5
  • 中国海洋石油有限公司是一家主要从事油气勘探、生产及贸易业务的香港投资控股公司。其业务包括常规油气业务、页岩油气业务、油砂业务及其他非常规油气业务。该公司主要通过三个分部运营。勘探及生产分部从事原油、天然气及其他石油产品勘探、开发及生产业务。贸易分部从事原油、天然气及其他石油产品贸易业务。公司分部从事集团相关业务。该公司主要在中国、加拿大、英国、尼日利亚、印度尼西亚及巴西等市场开展业务。
  • 极佳的业绩。此前,该公司公布了21财年上半年的业绩。营收同比增长47.8%,至1,102亿元人民币。公司应归于股东的净利润为333亿元人民币,同比增长221%。该公司宣布中期股息为每股0.3港元。
  • 国际油价反弹。截至8月27日,WTI原油收于每桶68.65美元,周涨幅为10.86%,布伦特原油收于每桶72.56美元,周涨幅为11.7%。美国经济恢复的主要原因是,鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔研讨会上保持了温和的态度,导致美元走软(上周美元指数下跌0.83%)。
  • 中国新一波疫情得到控制。最近油价回调的部分原因是担心中国爆发delta变种病毒疫情,这可能导致石油需求减弱。然而,在中国采取严厉措施控制疫情后,新一波疫情得到了遏制。预计2021年剩余时间内,石油需求将恢复复苏。
  • 市场对21财年和22财年预计净利润增长的最新共识分别为195.3%和4.8%,这意味着远期市盈率为4.3倍和4.1倍。目前的市盈率是6.0倍。21/22财年的股息收益率预计分别为10.3%和10.7%。彭博社的12个月平均目标价为11.89港元

耐世特 (1316 HK): 市场疲软中的价值股

  • 重申买入:买入价:8.4,目标价:9.4,止损价:7.9
  • 耐世特汽车系统集团有限公司是一家主要从事开发、制造及供应制造转向及动力传动系统的投资控股公司。公司及其子公司通过三大分部运营:北美分部、亚太区分部、欧洲及南美洲分部以及其他分部.该公司的产品包括电动助力转向机、液压助力转向机、转向管柱及中间轴、动力传动系统、先进驾驶员辅助系统及自动驾驶产品等。
  • 受汽车芯片短缺的影响,在乘用车需求上升的情况下,整个汽车制造业的生产已经放缓。该公司的产品是汽车的关键部件之一,因此,其业务与该行业的前景高度相关。
  • 此前,该公司公布了21财年上半年业绩。营收同比增长43%,达到17亿美元。毛利润为2.265亿美元,同比增长85.5%。归属于公司股东的利润同比增长6300%,达到8.31亿美元。
  • 目前的股价已经计入了收益未如理想的因素。尽管由于汽车芯片短缺的利空导致整个汽车行业的复苏比预期的要慢,整车制造业务的复苏已经放缓,但这是暂时的,而不是永久性的。在未来几个月,我们预计将出现更多积极的行业消息,如恢复汽车生产或提高2022年生产目标等。考虑到股价的大幅调整,好消息对股价的影响可能比负面消息更大。
  • 更新后的市场共识,预计净利润在21财年和22财年分别增长57.0%和43.6%,即13.1倍和9.2倍的远期市盈率。目前的市盈率是13.9倍。彭博社(Bloomberg)的12个月平均目标价为13.9港元。
1316 HK (Source: Bloomberg)

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Market Movers

United States

  • Support.com (SPRT US) became the latest company to become a “meme” stock when the company’s shares soared 33.65% after surging as much as 203% on Friday. The stock caught the attention of retail investors ahead of the company’s special meeting for stockholders on 10 September 2021. According to data analytics company S3 Partners, about 60% of Support.com’s float is held short. The surge in its share price has forced many short-sellers to close out or reduce their positions.
  • Facebook (FB US) shares were up 2.26% on Friday, after a feature article in London’s The Telegraph described the social media company’s latest project, Horizons Workroom, an “online space for virtual reality meetings that has been developed by a group at the company’s London offices”. Facebook users who own the Oculus virtual reality (VR) glasses can use Horizons to meet together in cyberspace. Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg said that Horizons could well be the first step toward’s the company’s transformation from a mere social media company into a “metaverse company”.
  • Crowdstrike (CRWD US) continued to rise another 1.27% on Friday after Nasdaq announced on Thursday that it would add the company to the Nasdaq-100 Index. It will also be added to the Nasdaq-100 Equal Weighted Index and the Nasdaq-100 Technology Index. The cloud security company will replace Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM US) on all three indexes. Crowdstrike is set to release second quarter financial results on 31 August 2021.
  • Moderna (MRNA US) shares closed 4.52% lower on Friday despite news of the European Union allowing the company’s partner in Spain, Rovi, to continue the production of a COVID-19 vaccines. The stock likely dropped due to contamination in some doses of the vaccine shipped to Japan, linked to a potential manufacturing issue at Rovi’s facility. Investors could be worried that more problems might arise that could potentially disrupt the production of the SpikeVax vaccine.
  • Weibo (WB US) plunged as much as 13% on Friday before closing 10.71% lower at $48.68. The chinese social media company removed a major fan site for Vicky Zhao, one of the country’s largest celebrities from numerous platforms including Tencent, Youku and iQiyi. This follows Beijing’s recent regulatory crackdowns on tech stocks.

Singapore

  • Samudera Shipping (SAMU SP) Shares rose by 6.5% on Friday, after gains of 4.5% on Thursday and closed at its previous high since July 2007. The rise in share price was likely lifted by record high trans-pacific liner rates ahead of the seasonal peak season. The Drewry Hong Kong-Los Angeles container-rate benchmark rose 2.6% sequentially to a record of US$7,961 per 40-foot container in the week ended Aug 25. Current rates are 164% above their five-year average, driven by supply chain dislocations and port congestion in both China and the US. 
  • Riverstone Holdings (RSTON SP) Shares rose by 3.3% on Friday, even though there was no company specific news. Investors are likely buying ahead to enjoy the dividend payout of MYR0.1 per share (around 3.2 Sing cents) by the company. Ex-dividend date is on 20 September and payout date is on 6 October. As of Friday’s closing price, shares have gained 4.7% since Tuesday’s closing price of S$1.20.
  • Uni-Asia Group (UAG SP) Shares rose by 2.7% on Friday and closed at a 2-year high. Investors are likely buying ahead to enjoy the dividend payout of 2 Sing Cents per share by the company. Ex-dividend date is expected to be on 20 September and payout date on 30 September. We have raised Uni-Asia’s TP to S$1.56, from S$1.42, which represents an upside of 34.5% from Friday’s closing price of S$1.16. UAG reported a 1H2021 profit of US$7.0mn, reversing from the US$3.9mn loss in 1H2020. The reversal was mainly on the back of the 49% YoY surge in charter income.Valuations are attractive amid the stronger-than-expected bulk carrier upcycle. Our TP implies a 0.7x FY2021F P/B, which is still a conservative 30% discount to international peers who are trading above 1.0x P/B. Read our 1H2021 update on the company here.
  • Comfortdelgro Corporation (CD SP) Shares rose by 1.9% on Friday, after the company announced that it has clinched a S$1.13bn deal to operate rail services in Auckland. Comfortdelgro has formed a 50:50 joint venture with Auckland One Rail (AOR) and will start operating the Auckland metro from January 16 next year. The contract is for eight years, with the possibility of extensions. This marks the group’s first foray into the New Zealand land transport market, and its first move overseas as a rail operator. Read the full article published by The Straits Times here. ComfortDelGro offers a forecasted dividend yield of 3% and 5% for 2021 and 2022, while consensus has an overall positive outlook with 12 BUYS and an average TP of S$1.91 (+17% upside potential). 
  • Civmec Limited (CIV SP) Shares declined by 7.4% yesterday after the company announced its full year 2021 results. The company delivered strong earnings, as revenue increased by 72% YoY to A$674.2mn in FY21 and net profit after tax increased by 97% to A$36.6mn. Dividend payout for FY21 has also increased 100% to 2 Australian Cents. Despite outstanding results, investors could have a gloomier outlook on Civmec moving forward as management commented that due to the ongoing border restrictions due to Covid-19, the company would be taking a “measured approach” to tendering activities with a focus on securing projects that they are confident of having the resources for. Read for the company’s full results here and the article published by The Edge here.
  • Trading dashboard update: Add Fortress Minerals (FMIL SP) at S$0.50 and cut loss on Civmec (CVL SP) at S$0.70.

Hong Kong

  • China Evergrande New Energy Vehicle Group Ltd (708 HK) The automobile sector jumped as related companies gradually reported 1H21 earnings. The company shares reached a 52-week low of HK$5 last Thursday. The rebound last Friday was due mainly to short-covering movement. The stock was one of the most heavily shorted stocks in HKEX. The company will be releasing 1H21 results on 30th August, and previously it announced a profit warning that the net loss expanded to RMB4.8bn, compared to a net loss of RMB2.45bn in 1H20. 
  • Dongfeng Motor Group Co Ltd (489 HK) The company announced 1H21 results. Revenue grew by 38.1% YoY to RMB69.9bn. Gross profit grew by 30.5% YoY to RMB10.2bn. Profit attributable to equity holders of the company jumped by 136.9% YoY to RMB8.6bn. The company declared a special dividend of RMB0.4 per share. Credit Suisse upgraded the TP to HK$13 from HK$12.8 and maintained an OVERWEIGHT rating. 
  • 3SBio Inc (1530 HK) Shares closed at a one-month high. Previously, the company announced 1H21 results. Revenue grew by 15.3% YoY to RMB3.1bn. Gross profit grew by 16.7% YoY to RMB2.6bn. Gross profit margin increased by 1ppt to 83.3%. Net profit attributable to owners of the parent grew by 28% YoY to RMB196.4mn.
  • Greentown China Holdings Limited (3900 HK) Shares closed at a one-month high. Previously, the company announced 1H21 results. Total contracted sales achieved RMB 171.7bn, representing an increase of 88% YoY. 67 projects were newly-added, with a total GFA of approximately 11.86mn sqm and estimated saleable amount of RMB214bn, representing an increase of 22% YoY. Revenue grew by 51.2% YoY to RMB36.1bn. Profit attributable to owners of the company grew by 15.4% YoY to RMB2.4bn. Management expects the full year contracted sales to exceed the RMB310bn target. 
  • Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group Company Ltd (3692 HK) The company announced 1H21 results. Revenue grew by 10.6% YoY to RMB4.4bn. R&D expenditure jumped by 44.2% YoY to RMB687mn. Net profit grew by 5.6% YoY to RMB1.3bn. CitiGroup downgraded TP to HK$50 from HK$60 as its gross profit margin dropped 45bps to 90.6% due to a centralised drug procurement programme. 

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