SING SP / 5IC.SI
One Chuan Grove anchors the next earnings cycle
Real Estate
One Chuan Grove becomes Sing Holdings’ principal earnings driver after North Gaia. We forecast group PATMI of S$14.1mn in FY2027, S$43.1mn in FY2028, S$59.0mn in FY2029 and S$30.4mn in FY2030, following a S$0.6mn forecast loss in FY2026. Earnings follow contracted sales and construction progress; no replacement development is included.
The 1,056-home development has modelled GDV of S$2.581bn. Proximity to Lorong Chuan MRT and established amenities supports its appeal to owner occupiers, although achieved pricing and final saleable areas remain unconfirmed. Sing’s 65% interest produces estimated lifetime project PAT of S$170.5mn before corporate overheads.
Modelled collections progressively reduce bank debt, with repayment completed in FY2030. North Gaia’s completion resulted in a special dividend equivalent to an 8.5% yield at S$0.375, providing a precedent for One Chuan Grove. We forecast a 2.7% ordinary dividend yield, with no special payout assumed; future distributions depend on surplus cash and capital allocation.
We initiate coverage on Sing Holdings with an OUTPERFORM rating and a 12-month target price of S$0.510 per share. Our two-stage FCFF DCF assumes residential selling prices of S$2,800 psf and 95% combined residential/shop saleable efficiency on GFA excluding childcare space. It captures the existing development and collection cycle, followed by continuing hotel operations, with no replacement development assumed.
Key downside risks include (i) weaker launch pricing or sales; (ii) construction cost overruns and unquantified statutory charges; (iii) completion or sell-out delays affecting ABSD remission; and (iv) financing and project concentration.
