IXBIO SP / 42C.SI
EUA & USA Growth Beckons
Healthcare
A US emergency declaration published on 3 September 2026 allows FDA to consider drugs for moderate-to-severe acute pain in military casualties. iX expects to complete its Wafermine EUA submission by 4Q26. If FDA grants it, Wafermine could be supplied to US military personnel from 2027, well before full FDA approval.
In February 2026, iX received a sole-source US$40.95mn DoW award to fund Wafermine’s EUA work and Phase 3 programme. Sole-source awards are made when the US Government determines that only one supplier can meet its requirement. The funding lets iX keep full ownership of Wafermine through Phase 3 and approach partners with late-stage data, which should command better licensing terms.
According to the CDC, opioids were involved in c.64% of the 69,973 US drug-overdose deaths in 2025 and FDA has issued guidance to encourage non-opioid pain medicines. DelveInsight expects the seven-major-market acute-pain market to grow from US$4.5bn in 2025 to US$15.5bn by 2036.
We initiate coverage on iX Biopharma with an OUTPERFORM rating and a 12-month target price of S$1.17, based on SOTP, implying 120.8% upside from the S$0.53 last close.
Key downside risks include (i) Phase 3 failure or delay; (ii) FDA declining or delaying the EUA; (iii) a licence deal on weaker terms or later than we assume; (iv) a slower-than-expected compounding ramp-up; and (v) Ligo execution and further equity dilution.
