9DC SP / 9DC.SI
Contract visibility meets a growing service profit base
Fire Protection
We forecast revenue of S$141.986m in FY27F and S$184.978m in FY28F. The S$433.040m September order book supports workload visibility, with timing and execution determining profit delivery.
Lifecycle Services revenue reaches S$56.054m in FY29F. Our forecast allows gross-margin normalisation, while operating leverage lifts group EBITDA margin from 15.9% in FY27F to 17.2% in FY29F.
The S$0.60 offer raises S$20.130m net on 145m enlarged shares. Our model incorporates final IPO fees and a 25% underlying-profit payout for FY27–FY28; acquisitions add no base-case earnings.
We initiate with OUTPERFORM and adopt S$1.035 as our 12-month target, 72.5% above the S$0.600 IPO reference. The DCF uses 12.0% WACC and 2.0% terminal growth.
Principal risks are slower contract conversion, cost overruns, weaker service retention, delayed collections and concentrated ownership.
