Technical Analysis: 13 November 2026

Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: US$980.8m versus US$146.1m, up 571.3% YoY and US$73.63m above approximately US$907.17m consensus. AI cloud revenue was US$973.8m. Adjusted EBITDA reached US$465.8m versus a US$5.2m loss, and September annualised revenue run rate reached US$6.4bn. 

• 3Q26 EPS: GAAP diluted loss of US$0.13/share versus US$0.50, beating the US$1.24 loss consensus by US$1.11. Net loss narrowed to US$37.5m from US$119.6m. Adjusted net income was US$90.9m versus a US$100.4m loss, while GAAP operating income turned positive at US$50.4m. 

• 4Q26 Guidance: No standalone quarterly revenue or EPS range provided. Third-party capacity delays pushed some expected 2026 revenue into the first half of 2027. Annualised revenue run rate is now expected to exceed US$7bn in February, around two months later than previously anticipated. 

• FY26 Guidance: Revenue now expected at the low end of the existing US$3.0–3.4bn range, with adjusted EBITDA margin unchanged at approximately 40%. Capital expenditure increased to approximately US$27bn from US$20–25bn. Initial FY27 guidance is revenue of US$12–13bn and capital expenditure of US$40–45bn, with pre-tax breakeven targeted in Q4 2027. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: No dividend or new buyback announced. Quarter-end cash and cash equivalents totalled US$7.426bn. Q3 operating cash outflow was US$273.0m, while purchases of property, equipment and intangible assets were US$7.300bn. The company raised US$5.75bn through convertible notes in August and approximately US$1.0bn net through its equity programme during Q3. 

• Comment: Nebius delivered a substantial earnings and revenue improvement, but the outlook makes execution and funding more important than the quarterly beat. AI cloud accounted for almost all group revenue, and positive GAAP operating income shows that the expanding platform is beginning to cover depreciation and operating costs. The difficulty is converting contracted demand into available capacity on schedule. Delays at third-party facilities move some revenue into 2027 while spending on owned sites accelerates, creating a wider gap between cash investment and near-term sales. Management expects customer prepayments and financing against investment-grade contracts to cover 75–85% of 2027 capital expenditure. That supports the expansion plan, but financing arrangements and customer obligations still need to be executed as infrastructure is delivered. The Q4 2027 pre-tax breakeven target is more informative than EBITDA alone because it includes financing costs, although it also assumes a five-year depreciation life for computing equipment. Shares closed at US$128.64 on 12 November, down 16.84%, and traded at US$130.24 post-market. The selloff suggests investors placed more weight on the delay and higher spending than on current growth. Watch capacity commissioning, customer prepayments, borrowing terms, equity issuance and progress toward the revenue run-rate milestone. Timely delivery with stronger cash conversion would support a more positive outlook. Further slippage would prolong the period of heavy external funding. 4Q26 recommended trading range of US$110–165. Neutral Outlook. 

 

Nebius集团（NBIS） 

• 2026年第三季度营收：9.808亿美元，上年同期为1.461亿美元，同比增长571.3%，较约9.0717亿美元的市场共识高7363万美元。AI云业务营收为9.738亿美元。调整后EBITDA由亏损520万美元转为盈利4.658亿美元，9月年化营收运行水平达到64亿美元。 

• 2026年第三季度每股收益：GAAP摊薄每股亏损为0.13美元，上年同期亏损0.50美元，较1.24美元亏损的市场共识少1.11美元。净亏损由1.196亿美元收窄至3750万美元。调整后净利润为9090万美元，上年同期为净亏损1.004亿美元，GAAP经营利润转正至5040万美元。 

• 2026年第四季度指引：未单独提供季度营收或每股收益区间。第三方设施容量交付延迟，使部分原计划在2026年确认的营收推迟至2027年上半年。年化营收运行水平现预计于2月超过70亿美元，较此前预期推迟约两个月。 

• 2026年全年指引：营收现预计接近原有30至34亿美元区间的下限，调整后EBITDA利润率维持约40%。资本支出由200至250亿美元上调至约270亿美元。2027年初步指引为营收120至130亿美元、资本支出400至450亿美元，目标于2027年第四季度实现税前盈亏平衡。 

• 股息与回购：未宣布股息或新回购计划。季末现金及现金等价物为74.26亿美元。第三季度经营现金净流出2.730亿美元，购置物业、设备及无形资产的支出为73.00亿美元。公司8月通过可转换票据融资57.5亿美元，第三季度通过股票发行计划净融资约10亿美元。 

• 短评：Nebius营收及盈利明显改善，但业绩展望使项目执行与融资安排比季度超预期更为重要。AI云业务几乎贡献全部集团营收，GAAP经营利润转正，表明平台扩张已开始覆盖折旧及经营成本。难点在于能否按时将签约需求转化为可用算力。第三方设施延迟令部分收入推迟至2027年，而自建场地投入加快，使现金投资与近期销售之间的差距扩大。管理层预计客户预付款及以投资级客户合同为基础的融资，可覆盖2027年资本支出的75%至85%。这支持扩张计划，但仍需在基础设施交付过程中落实融资并履行客户承诺。2027年第四季度税前盈亏平衡目标包含融资成本，因此较单看EBITDA更具参考意义，不过该目标也采用计算设备五年折旧年限的假设。11月12日股价收于128.64美元，下跌16.84%，盘后报130.24美元。股价下跌反映市场更关注交付延迟和支出上调，而非当前增长。后续应观察容量投运、客户预付款、借款条款、股份发行，以及年化营收里程碑的进展。若能按期交付并增强现金转化，将支持更正面的判断。若进度再度延迟，高度依赖外部融资的阶段将进一步延长。2026年第四季度建议交易区间为110至165美元。中性前景。 

 

Nu Holdings Ltd. (NU) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: IFRS revenue of US$5.820bn versus US$4.173bn, up 39.5% YoY and approximately US$90m below US$5.91bn consensus. On the company’s managerial basis, revenue was US$6.259bn versus US$4.317bn, up 45.0% in reported U.S. dollars and 37% on an FX-neutral basis. Customers increased to 142.6m from 127.0m. 

• 3Q26 EPS: IFRS diluted EPS of US$0.2235 versus US$0.1595, up 40.1% YoY. Rounded EPS of US$0.22 missed the US$0.23 consensus by approximately US$0.01. Net income reached US$1.092bn versus US$782.7m, up 31% on an FX-neutral basis, with return on equity of 32%. 

• 4Q26 Guidance: No numerical quarterly revenue or EPS guidance provided. Management expects the efficiency ratio to increase sequentially as some planned spending shifts into Q4. 

• FY26 Guidance: Full-year efficiency-ratio guidance improved to 19.0–19.5% from approximately 20%. No full-year revenue or EPS guidance provided. Management did not issue a 2027 loan-growth target. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: No dividend announced. The US$1.0bn buyback programme runs through 3 June 2027. As of September-end, Nu had repurchased 40.66m shares for US$500.4m, with US$499.6m remaining authorised. Deposits totalled US$47.5bn against a US$41.6bn credit-card and loan portfolio. 

• Comment: Nu continues to demonstrate the earnings potential of a large digital banking franchise, with more customers using the platform and generating higher revenue per active account. The 19.3% quarterly efficiency ratio and improved annual cost outlook support the view that the business can expand while spreading operating costs over a larger revenue base. The principal qualification is credit quality. Early-stage delinquencies rose to 4.9% from 4.3% a year earlier, and loans more than ninety days overdue increased to 7.3% from 6.7%. As the loan book grows, those balances and the associated provisions deserve more attention than customer additions alone. There is also an important distinction within the margin figures. Reported risk-adjusted net interest margin fell sequentially to 12.1%, but management said recurring margin rose to 12.7% from 11.9% after removing a Q2 programme benefit and a Q3 charge relating to receivables from payment institutions placed into liquidation. That supports the underlying lending economics, while the exclusions still need to be followed through subsequent periods. Shares closed at US$11.83 on 12 November, down 3.98% before the release, and recovered to US$12.21 post-market, up 3.20% from the close. Watch delinquency formation, recoveries, deposit funding costs and whether Mexico and Colombia can scale profitably. Strong recurring returns and improving efficiency support a positive view, provided credit losses remain controlled as lending expands. 4Q26 recommended trading range of US$10.50–14.50. Positive Outlook. 

 

Nu控股公司（NU） 

• 2026年第三季度营收：按国际财务报告准则（IFRS）计算，营收为58.20亿美元，上年同期为41.73亿美元，同比增长39.5%，较59.1亿美元的市场共识低约9000万美元。按公司管理口径计算，营收为62.59亿美元，上年同期为43.17亿美元，以报告美元计算增长45.0%，剔除汇率影响增长37%。客户数由1.270亿增至1.426亿。 

• 2026年第三季度每股收益：IFRS摊薄每股收益为0.2235美元，上年同期为0.1595美元，同比增长40.1%。四舍五入后的每股收益为0.22美元，较0.23美元的市场共识低约0.01美元。净利润由7.827亿美元增至10.92亿美元，剔除汇率影响增长31%，股本回报率为32%。 

• 2026年第四季度指引：未提供具体季度营收或每股收益指引。管理层预计部分原计划支出推迟至第四季度，因此成本收入比将环比上升。 

• 2026年全年指引：全年成本收入比指引由约20%改善至19.0%至19.5%。未提供全年营收或每股收益指引，也未发布2027年贷款增长目标。 

• 股息与回购：未宣布股息。10亿美元回购计划有效期至2027年6月3日。截至9月底，公司回购4066万股，耗资5.004亿美元，剩余授权4.996亿美元。存款总额为475亿美元，信用卡及贷款组合为416亿美元。 

• 短评：Nu继续展现大型数字银行的盈利潜力，更多客户活跃使用平台，每名活跃客户贡献的营收也有所增加。本季度19.3%的成本收入比及改善后的全年成本指引，说明随着收入规模扩大，公司能够分摊经营成本。主要需要关注的是信贷质量。早期逾期率由上年同期的4.3%升至4.9%，逾期超过九十天的贷款比例由6.7%升至7.3%。随着贷款组合扩大，这些余额及相应拨备比单看新增客户数更值得重视。利润率数据也需区分。报告风险调整后净息差由上季度下降至12.1%，但管理层表示，剔除第二季度一项计划的收益，以及第三季度因部分支付机构进入清算而产生的应收款项费用后，经常性风险调整后净息差由11.9%升至12.7%。这支持基础放贷收益的改善，但相关调整仍需在后续季度跟踪。11月12日股价在财报发布前下跌3.98%，收于11.83美元，盘后回升至12.21美元，较收盘上涨3.20%。后续应关注新增逾期、贷款回收、存款融资成本，以及墨西哥和哥伦比亚业务能否在扩大规模的同时实现盈利。较强的经常性收益及改善的成本效率支持正面判断，前提是贷款扩张过程中的信贷损失维持可控。2026年第四季度建议交易区间为10.50至14.50美元。正面前景。 

 

Cerebras Systems Inc. (CBRS) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: Core revenue of US$230.9m, up 70% YoY and US$16.2m above US$214.7m consensus. GAAP revenue was US$210.8m versus US$135.7m, up 55.3%. Core cloud and other services revenue rose 272% to US$144.9m. Core revenue excludes customer-warrant amortisation and certain pass-through items. 

• 3Q26 EPS: GAAP diluted loss of US$0.67/share versus US$0.41. GAAP net loss widened to US$161.2m from US$22.2m, including US$155.1m of stock-based compensation. Core net income was US$29.8m versus a US$10.9m loss, although the Core operating margin remained at negative 14%. 

• 4Q26 Guidance: Core revenue of approximately US$310–330m versus US$274.9m consensus. Core gross margin of 47–49% and Core operating margin of negative 1% to positive 1%. No EPS guidance provided. 

• FY26 Guidance: Core revenue raised to US$940–960m from US$880–890m. Core gross margin increased to 42–44% from 41–43%, and Core operating margin improved to negative 10% to negative 8% from negative 19% to negative 17%. Management expects revenue to triple in 2027, without providing an EPS range. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: No dividend or buyback announced. Cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash and investments totalled approximately US$7.8bn, with US$850m of debt capacity. Nine-month operating cash outflow was US$388.9m. Remaining performance obligations totalled US$26.1bn. 

• Comment: Cerebras is gaining commercial traction as customers seek faster AI inference, and the raised quarterly outlook points to a meaningful increase in scale. The cloud business is becoming a larger contributor, while agreements with hyperscalers and planned availability through Oracle Cloud Infrastructure broaden access to customers. Those developments give the growth case more substance, but the financial measures need careful interpretation. Core revenue reverses customer-warrant amortisation and removes certain pass-through items, creating a material difference from GAAP revenue. Stock-based compensation also accounts for much of the gap between GAAP and Core profit. Positive Core net income therefore should be considered alongside the negative Core operating margin. The Q4 target of approximately operating breakeven is a more direct test of whether higher sales can cover the recurring cost base. Manufacturing expansion and the contracted 700 MW of data-center capacity support the opportunity, while delivery schedules, customer acceptance and utilisation will determine how quickly commitments become revenue. Shares closed at US$97.75 on 12 November, down 3.29%, then rose to US$115.68 post-market, up 18.34% from the close. The rally recognises the stronger outlook but raises expectations for execution. Watch customer concentration, cloud gross margins, warrant amortisation, dilution and the transition to sustained operating profitability. Successful deployment with broader repeat demand would support a more positive view. Delays or persistent operating losses would leave valuation heavily reliant on future growth. 4Q26 recommended trading range of US$95–140. Neutral Outlook. 

 

Cerebras系统公司（CBRS） 

• 2026年第三季度营收：Core核心口径营收为2.309亿美元，同比增长70%，较2.147亿美元的市场共识高1620万美元。GAAP营收为2.108亿美元，上年同期为1.357亿美元，同比增长55.3%。Core云及其他服务营收增长272%至1.449亿美元。Core营收剔除客户认股权证摊销及部分代收代付项目的影响。 

• 2026年第三季度每股收益：GAAP摊薄每股亏损为0.67美元，上年同期亏损0.41美元。GAAP净亏损由2220万美元扩大至1.612亿美元，其中包含1.551亿美元股权激励费用。Core净利润为2980万美元，上年同期为净亏损1090万美元，但Core经营利润率仍为负14%。 

• 2026年第四季度指引：Core营收预计约3.10至3.30亿美元，高于2.749亿美元的市场共识。Core毛利率预计为47%至49%，Core经营利润率为负1%至正1%。未提供每股收益指引。 

• 2026年全年指引：Core营收由8.80至8.90亿美元上调至9.40至9.60亿美元。Core毛利率由41%至43%上调至42%至44%，Core经营利润率由负19%至负17%改善至负10%至负8%。管理层预计2027年营收增至约三倍，未提供每股收益区间。 

• 股息与回购：未宣布股息或回购。现金、现金等价物、受限现金及投资合计约78亿美元，另有8.5亿美元借款额度。前九个月经营现金净流出3.889亿美元，剩余履约义务金额为261亿美元。 

• 短评：客户对更快AI推理速度的需求，正推动Cerebras扩大商业业务，上调后的季度指引也反映规模将明显增长。云业务贡献持续提高，与超大规模云厂商的协议及计划接入甲骨文云基础设施，有助于扩大客户覆盖。这些进展增强了增长前景，但财务指标仍需仔细解读。Core营收加回客户认股权证摊销，并剔除部分代收代付项目，与GAAP营收存在明显差异。股权激励费用也是GAAP与Core盈利差距的重要来源。因此，Core净利润转正需要结合Core经营利润率仍为负这一情况看待。第四季度接近经营盈亏平衡的目标，更能检验销售增长能否覆盖经常性成本。制造产能扩张及已签约的700兆瓦数据中心容量支持业务机会，但交付进度、客户验收和利用率将决定承诺转化为收入的速度。11月12日股价收于97.75美元，下跌3.29%，盘后升至115.68美元，较收盘上涨18.34%。上涨反映市场认可更强的业绩展望，也提高了后续执行的要求。应关注客户集中度、云业务毛利率、认股权证摊销、股份摊薄，以及能否实现持续经营盈利。若部署顺利并形成更广泛的重复需求，将支持更正面的判断。若交付延迟或经营持续亏损，估值仍将高度依赖未来增长。2026年第四季度建议交易区间为95至140美元。中性前景。 

 

Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) 

• 1Q27 Revenue: US$18.517bn versus US$14.883bn, up 24.4% YoY and approximately US$407m above US$18.11bn consensus. Product revenue rose to US$14.667bn from US$11.077bn, while services revenue increased to US$3.850bn from US$3.806bn. 

• 1Q27 EPS: Non-GAAP diluted EPS of US$1.40 versus US$1.00, up 40% YoY and US$0.08 above US$1.32 consensus. GAAP diluted EPS increased to US$1.14 from US$0.72. Non-GAAP operating margin reached 37.8%, while non-GAAP gross margin declined to 65.6% from 68.1%. 

• 2Q27 Guidance: Revenue of US$18.0–18.2bn versus US$17.91bn consensus. Non-GAAP EPS of US$1.34–1.36 versus US$1.23 consensus, with GAAP EPS of US$1.07–1.09. Non-GAAP gross margin of 65–66% and operating margin of 36–37%. 

• FY27 Guidance: Revenue raised to US$74.8–75.8bn from US$72.2–73.4bn. Non-GAAP EPS raised to US$5.47–5.53 from US$5.05–5.11, and GAAP EPS raised to US$4.38–4.44 from US$4.00–4.06. Hyperscaler AI infrastructure revenue expected at US$9.0bn, up from US$7.5bn previously. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: Quarterly dividend of US$0.42/share, payable 20 January 2027, with a 4 January record date. Cisco returned approximately US$3.7bn in Q1 through US$2.0bn in buybacks and US$1.7bn in dividends. US$6.1bn remains authorised for repurchases. Quarterly operating cash flow was US$4.357bn. 

• Comment: Cisco delivered a strong quarter and a substantial annual guidance upgrade, with product sales driving the expansion. The higher US$9bn hyperscaler AI infrastructure outlook gives investors a clearer indication that AI networking demand is becoming a material source of revenue. Demand is also broad across geographies and customer markets, which reduces reliance on a single end market. The margin picture is more nuanced. Non-GAAP gross margin fell 250 basis points as the sales mix changed, while operating margin reached a record because revenue grew much faster than operating costs. That combination can sustain earnings growth if Cisco maintains expense discipline, but it requires ongoing volume and efficient delivery. Services revenue grew only slightly, so investors should also monitor whether the installed hardware base translates into additional software, security and support revenue. The stronger annual EPS guide and operating cash flow provide support for shareholder returns, although dividends and buybacks already use a substantial portion of quarterly cash generation. Shares closed at US$102.01 on 12 November, up 1.24%, and traded at US$101.70 post-market, down 0.30% from the close. The muted reaction suggests the market was already anticipating a strong networking cycle. Watch AI order conversion, gross margins, customer concentration and progress in security and recurring services. Sustained sales growth with disciplined costs would support the improved earnings outlook, while weaker mix or slower hyperscaler deployments could reduce the benefit. 2Q27 recommended trading range of US$92–118. Positive Outlook. 

 

思科系统公司（CSCO） 

• 2027财年第一季度营收：185.17亿美元，上年同期为148.83亿美元，同比增长24.4%，较181.1亿美元的市场共识高约4.07亿美元。产品营收由110.77亿美元增至146.67亿美元，服务营收由38.06亿美元增至38.50亿美元。 

• 2027财年第一季度每股收益：非GAAP摊薄每股收益为1.40美元，上年同期为1.00美元，同比增长40%，较1.32美元的市场共识高0.08美元。GAAP摊薄每股收益由0.72美元升至1.14美元。非GAAP经营利润率达37.8%，非GAAP毛利率则由68.1%降至65.6%。 

• 2027财年第二季度指引：营收预计为180至182亿美元，高于179.1亿美元的市场共识。非GAAP每股收益预计为1.34至1.36美元，高于1.23美元的市场共识，GAAP每股收益为1.07至1.09美元。非GAAP毛利率预计为65%至66%，经营利润率为36%至37%。 

• 2027财年全年指引：营收由722至734亿美元上调至748至758亿美元。非GAAP每股收益由5.05至5.11美元上调至5.47至5.53美元，GAAP每股收益由4.00至4.06美元上调至4.38至4.44美元。超大规模云客户AI基础设施营收预期由75亿美元提高至90亿美元。 

• 股息与回购：季度股息为每股0.42美元，股权登记日为2027年1月4日，派息日为1月20日。第一季度通过约20亿美元回购及17亿美元股息，向股东返还约37亿美元。剩余回购授权61亿美元，季度经营现金流为43.57亿美元。 

• 短评：思科本季度表现强劲，并明显上调全年指引，产品销售是扩张的主要动力。超大规模云客户AI基础设施营收预期提高至90亿美元，使投资者更清楚地看到AI网络需求正成为重要的收入来源。各地区及客户市场需求也较广泛，降低了对单一终端市场的依赖。利润率表现则更为复杂。销售组合变化令非GAAP毛利率下降250个基点，但收入增长远快于经营成本，推动经营利润率创新高。如果公司维持费用纪律，这一组合可以支持盈利增长，但仍需要持续的销售规模及高效交付。服务营收仅小幅增长，因此也需关注新增硬件安装能否带动软件、安全和支持服务收入。更高的全年每股收益指引及经营现金流为股东回报提供支撑，不过股息和回购已占用相当部分季度经营现金。11月12日股价收于102.01美元，上涨1.24%，盘后报101.70美元，较收盘下跌0.30%。反应温和表明市场此前已预期网络投资周期较强。后续应关注AI订单转化、毛利率、客户集中度，以及安全和经常性服务业务的进展。销售持续增长并控制成本，将支持改善后的盈利展望。如果产品组合走弱或超大规模云客户部署放慢，盈利增益可能减弱。2027财年第二季度建议交易区间为92至118美元。正面前景。 

 

Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) 

• 4Q26 Revenue: US$10.409bn versus US$6.800bn, up 53.1% YoY and approximately US$109m above US$10.30bn consensus. FY26 revenue reached US$34.446bn versus US$28.368bn, up 21.4%. 

• 4Q26 EPS: Non-GAAP diluted EPS of US$4.16 versus US$2.17, up 91.7% YoY and US$0.10 above US$4.06 consensus. GAAP diluted EPS rose to US$3.40 from US$2.38. Non-GAAP gross margin increased to 50.6% from 48.1%, and non-GAAP operating margin reached 35.3%. 

• 1Q27 Guidance: Revenue of US$11.1bn, plus or minus US$500m, and non-GAAP diluted EPS of US$4.35, plus or minus US$0.20. The midpoints exceed the US$10.7bn revenue and US$4.18 EPS consensus. 

• FY27 Guidance: No formal full-fiscal-year revenue or EPS range provided. Management expects calendar 2027 wafer-fab equipment demand to grow more than 30% and believes Applied is positioned to outperform. Calendar 2026 Semiconductor Systems growth remains on track to exceed 40%. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: Quarterly dividend of US$0.53/share, payable 10 December, with a 19 November record date. Q4 buybacks were US$2.0bn and dividends US$421m. Quarterly operating cash flow was US$3.30bn and capital expenditure US$684m, producing approximately US$2.6bn of free cash flow. FY26 shareholder distributions totalled US$4.75bn. 

• Comment: Applied Materials is translating the AI-driven equipment cycle into both stronger sales and higher margins. Revenue growth of 53% and a 250-basis-point improvement in non-GAAP gross margin produced much faster EPS growth, while record cash generation supports the quality of the operating result. The January-quarter guide extends that momentum, and management’s expectation of more than 30% growth in calendar 2027 wafer-fab equipment demand points to a broader investment cycle. Leading-edge logic, DRAM and advanced packaging are areas where Applied has invested to expand its position. The constraint is how quickly customers and suppliers can add capacity. Clean-room availability, equipment components and raw materials can delay installations even when customer demand remains strong. Export restrictions and the mix of China and non-China spending also affect the accessible opportunity. The EPIC research centre may strengthen long-term customer relationships, while near-term returns depend on converting today’s demand into shipments and cash. Shares closed at US$380.95 on 12 November, down 3.58%, and traded at US$383.83 post-market, up 0.76% from the close. The modest rebound leaves investors looking for continued delivery against an already strong growth outlook. Watch order conversion, DRAM and foundry investment, packaging demand, gross-margin sustainability and cash returns. Sustained equipment share gains with disciplined capacity expansion would support the positive view. Customer delays or a sharper change in regional demand would temper it. 1Q27 recommended trading range of US$340–435. Positive Outlook. 

 

应用材料公司（AMAT） 

• 2026财年第四季度营收：104.09亿美元，上年同期为68.00亿美元，同比增长53.1%，较103.0亿美元的市场共识高约1.09亿美元。2026财年营收为344.46亿美元，上年同期为283.68亿美元，同比增长21.4%。 

• 2026财年第四季度每股收益：非GAAP摊薄每股收益为4.16美元，上年同期为2.17美元，同比增长91.7%，较4.06美元的市场共识高0.10美元。GAAP摊薄每股收益由2.38美元升至3.40美元。非GAAP毛利率由48.1%升至50.6%，非GAAP经营利润率达35.3%。 

• 2027财年第一季度指引：营收预计为111亿美元，上下浮动5亿美元，非GAAP摊薄每股收益为4.35美元，上下浮动0.20美元。两项中值均高于107亿美元营收及4.18美元每股收益共识。 

• 2027财年全年指引：未提供正式的全年营收或每股收益区间。管理层预计2027日历年晶圆厂设备需求增长超过30%，并认为公司有望跑赢市场。2026日历年半导体系统业务增长仍有望超过40%。 

• 股息与回购：季度股息为每股0.53美元，股权登记日为11月19日，派息日为12月10日。第四季度回购20亿美元，派息4.21亿美元。季度经营现金流为33.0亿美元，资本支出6.84亿美元，自由现金流约26亿美元。2026财年向股东返还合计47.5亿美元。 

• 短评：应用材料正将AI驱动的设备投资周期转化为更高销售及利润率。营收增长53%，非GAAP毛利率上升250个基点，推动每股收益更快增长，创纪录现金流也支持经营业绩的质量。1月季度指引延续了这一势头，管理层预计2027日历年晶圆厂设备需求增长超过30%，说明投资周期可能进一步扩大。先进逻辑、DRAM及先进封装，均是公司持续投入以扩大地位的领域。限制因素在于客户与供应商扩产的速度。即使需求强劲，洁净室建设、设备零部件和原材料供应也可能延迟安装。出口限制以及中国和非中国地区的支出组合，同样会影响公司能够参与的市场机会。EPIC研发中心可能增强长期客户关系，但近期回报仍取决于当前需求能否转化为出货和现金。11月12日股价收于380.95美元，下跌3.58%，盘后报383.83美元，较收盘上涨0.76%。反弹幅度不大，投资者仍在等待公司持续兑现较强的增长展望。后续应关注订单转化、DRAM及晶圆代工投资、封装需求、毛利率可持续性和现金回报。若设备份额持续提升且产能扩张保持纪律，将支持正面判断。如果客户项目延期或区域需求发生更明显变化，则需下调预期。2027财年第一季度建议交易区间为340至435美元。正面前景。