Technical Analysis: 30 October 2026

Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: Sales and revenues US$20.682bn versus US$17.638bn, +17.3% YoY; approximately US$78m below US$20.76bn consensus. Higher volume contributed US$2.207bn and pricing US$663m. 

• 3Q26 EPS: Adjusted EPS US$7.20 versus US$4.95, +45.5%; beat US$7.06 consensus by US$0.14. GAAP EPS US$7.13 versus US$4.88. Both measures include approximately US$0.21/share of IEEPA tariff recoveries. 

• 4Q26 Guidance: Moderate revenue growth and higher adjusted operating margin YoY; no numerical revenue or EPS range provided. Construction Industries dealer inventory reduction expected at US$1.6bn versus US$0.6bn a year earlier, a US$1bn YoY volume headwind. Tariff costs approximately US$600m excluding recoveries. 

• FY26 Guidance: Maintained mid-to-high teens revenue growth and MP&E free cash flow in the top half of its US$6–15bn annual target range. Adjusted operating margin near the bottom of its target range excluding tariff recoveries. Capex reduced to approximately US$3.3bn from US$3.5bn. No numerical EPS range provided. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: Quarterly dividend maintained at US$1.63/share, payable 19 November to holders of record on 26 October. Q3 share repurchases approximately US$1.2bn and dividends approximately US$0.7bn; enterprise operating cash flow US$4.4bn. 

• Comment: Caterpillar’s strong demand and backlog support earnings visibility, but the modest revenue miss and slower Q4 growth keep our outlook neutral. Power generation benefits from data-centre investment, while construction and mining broaden the demand base. Backlog reached US$78.1bn, although capacity constraints and delivery timing limit how quickly orders become sales. The EPS beat also requires qualification: tariff recoveries contributed approximately US$0.21 per share, exceeding the US$0.14 headline beat. Volume and pricing still supported underlying profit growth, but the surprise should not be treated as recurring. The anticipated dealer inventory drawdown explains part of Q4’s moderation, rather than necessarily signalling weaker end-user demand. Nevertheless, freight, tariffs and expansion spending continue to pressure incremental margins. Management’s unchanged annual outlook leaves less evidence of an additional earnings acceleration than investors had sought. Shares closed at US$647.39 on 29 October, down 9.25%. The decline reduces the valuation premium but does not remove exposure to the industrial cycle or AI infrastructure expectations. Cash generation supports dividends and repurchases. Watch retail demand, dealer inventories, Power & Energy capacity, backlog conversion, tariff recoveries and cash flow. Sustained profitable delivery would be more persuasive than order growth alone. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$600–750. Neutral Outlook. 

卡特彼勒 (CAT) 

• 2026财年第三季度营收：销售及收入206.82亿美元，去年176.38亿美元，同比增长17.3%；较207.6亿美元预期低约7,800万美元。销量增加贡献22.07亿美元，定价贡献6.63亿美元。 

• 2026财年第三季度每股收益：经调整每股盈利7.20美元，去年4.95美元，增长45.5%；较7.06美元预期高0.14美元。GAAP每股盈利7.13美元，去年4.88美元。两项均包含IEEPA关税回收约每股0.21美元。 

• 2026财年第四季度指引：预计收入同比温和增长，经调整经营利润率上升；未提供收入或每股盈利数值区间。建筑工业经销商库存预计减少16亿美元，去年同期减少6亿美元，形成同比10亿美元销量拖累。剔除回收款的关税成本约6亿美元。 

• 2026财年指引：维持收入增长百分之十几的中高水平，以及机械、动力与能源业务自由现金流位于年度60亿至150亿美元目标区间的上半部。剔除关税回收款后，经调整经营利润率接近目标区间下限。资本开支由约35亿美元降至33亿美元。未提供每股盈利数值区间。 

• 股息与回购：季度股息维持每股1.63美元，11月19日支付，登记日10月26日。第三季度回购约12亿美元，股息约7亿美元；集团经营现金流44亿美元。 

• 短评：卡特彼勒需求及订单强劲，支持盈利能见度，但收入略逊预期及第四季度增长放缓，使我们维持中性。数据中心投资带动发电业务，建筑及采矿亦拓宽需求基础。在手订单达781亿美元，不过产能限制及交付时点影响订单转化速度。每股盈利超预期亦需审慎判断：关税回收贡献约每股0.21美元，高于表面超预期的0.14美元。销量及定价仍支持基础利润明显增长，但不宜将超预期全部视为经常性改善。预期经销商去库存解释部分第四季度放缓，并不必然代表终端需求转弱。不过，运费、关税及扩产开支持续影响增量利润率。全年前景维持不变，未充分证明投资者期待的进一步盈利加速。股价于10月29日收报647.39美元，下跌9.25%。下跌减少估值溢价，但工业周期及AI基础设施预期风险仍在。现金创造支持股息与回购。应关注零售需求、经销商库存、动力与能源产能、订单转化、关税回收及现金流。持续有利润的交付，较订单继续增长更具说服力。 2026年第四季度建议交易区间：600–750美元。中性前景。 

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: Revenue US$24.397bn versus US$17.601bn, +38.6% YoY; approximately US$2.287bn above US$22.11bn consensus. Volume +53%, realised prices −15%; revenue included approximately US$900m of milestone and rebate/discount-estimate benefits. 

• 3Q26 EPS: Non-GAAP diluted EPS US$7.48 versus US$7.02, +6.6%; beat US$7.11 consensus by US$0.37. GAAP EPS US$7.22 versus US$6.21. Both current-quarter measures include acquired IPR&D charges of US$4.57/share versus US$0.71 previously. 

• 4Q26 Guidance: The company did not provide standalone Q4 revenue or EPS guidance. Management expects U.S. regulatory action on Foundayo for type 2 diabetes in Q4; the outcome is not assured. Full FY27 financial guidance planned for the Q4 earnings call. 

• FY26 Guidance: Revenue raised to US$91–92bn from US$85–87bn; non-GAAP performance margin 52–52.5% from 49–50.5%. Non-GAAP EPS revised to US$35–36 from US$35.50–36.50: US$4.07 underlying midpoint improvement was more than offset by US$4.57 of Q3 acquired IPR&D. Guidance excludes subsequent acquired IPR&D. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: Quarterly dividend US$1.73/share, payable 10 December to holders of record on 13 November. Q3 share repurchases US$374m; nine-month repurchases US$4.3bn. Approximately US$6.6bn remained under the existing programme at quarter-end. 

• Comment: Lilly’s volume growth and higher revenue outlook support a positive view, despite the lower stated EPS range. That revision reflects acquisition-related IPR&D charges rather than weaker underlying operations. Mounjaro and Zepbound remain the principal drivers, while Foundayo provides another route to expanding the incretin market. However, revenue quality deserves attention: approximately US$900m came from milestones and favourable rebate or discount estimates, and no further Jardiance milestones remain. These benefits should not be extrapolated as recurring demand. Volume growth more than offsets falling realised prices, but reimbursement terms and geographic mix will determine how much sales growth reaches profit. Acquired IPR&D remains included in non-GAAP EPS, making the headline comparison less representative of operating momentum. Shares closed at US$1,373.70 on 29 October, up 6.63%. The valuation therefore already anticipates sustained execution and commercial success. Manufacturing investment supports supply but adds spending and execution requirements. Watch incretin volumes, net prices, Foundayo uptake, reimbursement access, regulatory decisions and the conversion of growth into cash. Competition and policy-driven pricing remain the main threats to durability. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$1,250–1,550. Positive Outlook. 

礼来 (LLY) 

• 2026财年第三季度营收：收入243.97亿美元，去年176.01亿美元，同比增长38.6%；较221.1亿美元预期高约22.87亿美元。销量增长53%，实现价格下降15%；收入包括约9亿美元里程碑及返利、折扣估计调整利好。 

• 2026财年第三季度每股收益：非GAAP摊薄每股盈利7.48美元，去年7.02美元，增长6.6%；较7.11美元预期高0.37美元。GAAP每股盈利7.22美元，去年6.21美元。本季两项均包含收购在研项目费用每股4.57美元，去年为0.71美元。 

• 2026财年第四季度指引：公司未提供独立第四季度收入或每股盈利指引。管理层预计美国将在第四季度对Foundayo用于2型糖尿病作监管决定，结果并无保证。完整2027年财务指引计划在第四季度业绩电话会公布。 

• 2026财年指引：收入由850亿至870亿美元上调至910亿至920亿美元；非GAAP业绩利润率由49–50.5%升至52–52.5%。非GAAP每股盈利由35.50–36.50美元调整至35–36美元：基础中点改善4.07美元，但被第三季度收购在研项目费用4.57美元抵消。指引不含其后发生的收购在研项目费用。 

• 股息与回购：季度股息每股1.73美元，12月10日支付，登记日11月13日。第三季度回购3.74亿美元，首九个月回购43亿美元；季末现有计划尚余约66亿美元。 

• 短评：礼来销量增长及收入前景明显上调，支持正面观点，尽管公布的每股盈利区间下降。调整源于收购在研项目费用，而非基础经营转弱。Mounjaro及Zepbound仍是主要动力，Foundayo则提供扩大肠促胰素市场的另一途径。不过，收入质量值得关注：约9亿美元来自里程碑及有利的返利、折扣估计调整，且Jardiance已无后续里程碑款项，不宜将其视为经常性需求。销量增长足以抵消价格下降，但报销条款及地区结构将决定收入增长转化为利润的程度。非GAAP每股盈利仍包含收购在研项目费用，令表面比较较难反映经营动能。股价于10月29日收报1,373.70美元，上涨6.63%，估值已反映持续执行及商业成功预期。制造投资支持供应，同时增加开支及执行要求。应关注肠促胰素销量、净售价、Foundayo采用、报销覆盖、监管决定及增长转化为现金的能力。竞争及政策推动的降价仍是持续增长的主要风险。 2026年第四季度建议交易区间：1,250–1,550美元。正面前景。 

L3Harris Technologies Inc. (LHX) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: Revenue US$6.060bn versus US$5.659bn, +7.1% YoY; approximately US$140m above US$5.92bn consensus. Organic growth 9%; orders US$19.3bn and backlog US$53.2bn. 

• 3Q26 EPS: GAAP diluted EPS US$3.28 versus US$2.46, +33.3%; beat US$2.95 consensus by US$0.33. Operating margin 13.0% versus 11.0%; segment operating margin unchanged at 15.9%. 

• 4Q26 Guidance: No standalone Q4 revenue or EPS range provided. Management expects approximately US$1bn of free cash flow and US$800m of debt repayments; Communications & Spectrum Dominance revenue growth expected to strengthen as component constraints ease. 

• FY26 Guidance: Revenue range narrowed upward to US$23.5–23.7bn from US$23.2–23.7bn; GAAP EPS raised to US$12.25–12.35 from US$11.80–12.00. Free cash flow maintained at US$3bn; organic growth 9–10% and segment operating margin in the low 16% range. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: Quarterly dividend US$1.25/share, payable 18 December to holders of record on 4 December. Q3 dividends US$234m and buybacks US$73m; nine-month buybacks US$598m. Q3 free cash flow US$1.260bn under the revised definition excluding asset-disposal proceeds. 

• Comment: L3Harris’s record backlog and higher annual guidance improve earnings visibility, but a lower medium-term cash framework keeps our outlook neutral. Missile awards underpin demand, while space programmes and resilient communications broaden the opportunity. However, much of the backlog remains unfunded, so awards still require budget support and disciplined execution before becoming revenue. GAAP EPS growth benefits from lower corporate costs, interest expense and taxes, while segment margin was flat. The earnings improvement therefore exceeds the pace of operating-margin progress. Strong quarterly cash generation is encouraging, and the revised free-cash-flow definition excludes asset-disposal proceeds. Nevertheless, management reduced its 2028 free-cash-flow framework to US$3bn from US$3.5bn and segment margin to approximately 16% from 16.3%. Cash-funded retirement contributions, lower margins and accelerated missile investment explain the reset. Capacity expansion can support later growth but requires spending before returns emerge. Shares closed at US$278.43 on 29 October, up 6.84%. The rebound recognises the near-term beat, while valuation still depends on turning awards into profitable deliveries. Supply shortages, contract mix and government funding remain risks. Watch funded backlog, missile capacity, communications recovery, segment margins, debt reduction and cash conversion against the revised framework. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$255–315. Neutral Outlook. 

L3哈里斯科技 (LHX) 

• 2026财年第三季度营收：收入60.60亿美元，去年56.59亿美元，同比增长7.1%；较59.2亿美元预期高约1.4亿美元。有机增长9%；订单193亿美元，在手订单532亿美元。 

• 2026财年第三季度每股收益：GAAP摊薄每股盈利3.28美元，去年2.46美元，增长33.3%；较2.95美元预期高0.33美元。经营利润率由11.0%升至13.0%；分部经营利润率维持15.9%。 

• 2026财年第四季度指引：未提供独立第四季度收入或每股盈利区间。管理层预计自由现金流约10亿美元，偿还债务8亿美元；随着零部件限制缓解，通信与频谱优势业务收入增长预计改善。 

• 2026财年指引：收入区间由232亿至237亿美元收窄并上调至235亿至237亿美元；GAAP每股盈利由11.80–12.00美元上调至12.25–12.35美元。自由现金流维持30亿美元；有机增长9–10%，分部经营利润率约16%的较低水平。 

• 股息与回购：季度股息每股1.25美元，12月18日支付，登记日12月4日。第三季度股息2.34亿美元，回购7,300万美元；首九个月回购5.98亿美元。按剔除资产出售所得的新定义，季度自由现金流12.60亿美元。 

• 短评：L3哈里斯创纪录订单及年度指引上调，改善盈利能见度，但中期现金框架下调使我们维持中性。导弹合同支持需求，太空项目及韧性通信拓宽机会。不过，较大部分订单尚未落实拨款，仍需预算支持及严格执行才能转化为收入。GAAP每股盈利增长受惠于企业费用、利息及税项下降，而分部利润率持平，故盈利改善快于经营利润率进展。季度现金创造强劲值得肯定，新自由现金流定义亦剔除资产出售所得。不过，管理层将2028年自由现金流框架由35亿美元降至30亿美元，分部利润率由16.3%降至约16%。改用现金支付退休计划供款、利润率降低及导弹投资提前，解释此次调整。扩产支持未来增长，但回报出现前需要投入。股价于10月29日收报278.43美元，上涨6.84%。反弹反映近期业绩超预期，但估值仍依赖合同转化为有利润的交付。供应短缺、合同结构及政府拨款仍是风险。应关注已拨款订单、导弹产能、通信业务复苏、分部利润率、减债及新框架下现金转化。 2026年第四季度建议交易区间：255–315美元。中性前景。 

Intel Corporation (INTC) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: Revenue US$16.513bn, +21% YoY; US$27m below US$16.54bn consensus. Data Center and AI revenue US$7.3bn, +78%; Client Computing and Physical AI revenue US$8.1bn, down 5%. 

• 3Q26 EPS: Non-GAAP diluted EPS US$0.52 versus US$0.23, +126% YoY; beat US$0.41 consensus by US$0.11. GAAP EPS US$0.60 versus US$0.90, down 33%; escrowed-share and investment valuation effects complicate the comparison. 

• 4Q26 Guidance: Revenue US$15.0–16.0bn; non-GAAP EPS US$0.25 and gross margin 38%; GAAP EPS US$0.10. Initial Fab 28 incident impact: approximately US$300m revenue and 2 percentage points of gross margin. Client revenue expected to decline more than 20% sequentially. 

• FY26 Guidance: The company did not provide full-year revenue or EPS guidance. Gross capex maintained at approximately US$20bn; non-GAAP operating expenses approximately US$16.3bn. Management expects substantially higher capex in 2027 and does not expect positive free cash flow that year. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: No cash dividend or new share-buyback authorisation announced in the Q3 release. Completed a US$23bn equity offering. Q3 operating cash flow US$5.082bn; adjusted free cash flow US$1.639bn includes government incentives and partner contributions. 

• Comment: Intel’s server recovery is real, but the weaker December outlook and heavier investment burden leave our outlook negative. Stronger data-center demand and better manufacturing costs lifted operating earnings. However, the PC contraction is now large enough to outweigh near-term server growth. The Fab 28 disruption adds delivery risk, while lower client wafer starts reduce fixed-cost absorption. Adjusted EPS better reflects operations because GAAP earnings include investment and escrowed-share valuation effects, alongside an unusually strong prior-year divestiture gain. Cash generation improved, but adjusted free cash flow benefits from incentives and partner funding. The equity raise strengthens liquidity while increasing dilution; it does not eliminate the need to earn adequate returns on new capacity. Management’s expectation of negative 2027 free cash flow makes that distinction important. Shares traded at US$70.86 post-market on 29 October, down 23.04% from the close. The valuation reset recognises weaker earnings visibility, although future foundry success still requires demonstrated customer commitments and execution. Watch PC inventories, server supply, Fab 28 recovery, process yields, external foundry wins and capital intensity. Sustained margin recovery without further financing dependence would be needed to improve our stance. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$60–85. Negative Outlook. 

英特尔 (INTC) 

• 2026财年第三季度营收：收入165.13亿美元，同比增长21%；较165.4亿美元预期低2,700万美元。数据中心及AI收入73亿美元，增长78%；客户端计算及物理AI收入81亿美元，下降5%。 

• 2026财年第三季度每股收益：非GAAP摊薄每股盈利0.52美元，去年0.23美元，同比增长126%；较0.41美元预期高0.11美元。GAAP每股盈利0.60美元，去年0.90美元，下降33%；托管股份及投资估值影响令比较更复杂。 

• 2026财年第四季度指引：收入150–160亿美元；非GAAP每股盈利0.25美元、毛利率38%；GAAP每股盈利0.10美元。Fab 28事故初步影响约3亿美元收入及2个百分点毛利率。客户端收入预计环比下降超过20%。 

• 2026财年指引：公司未提供全年收入或每股盈利指引。总资本开支维持约200亿美元；非GAAP经营费用约163亿美元。管理层预计2027年资本开支显著增加，且该年无法实现正自由现金流。 

• 股息与回购：第三季度公告未宣布现金股息或新股份回购授权。完成230亿美元股权融资。第三季度经营现金流50.82亿美元；经调整自由现金流16.39亿美元包含政府补助及合作伙伴出资。 

• 短评：英特尔服务器业务确有复苏，但十二月季度前景转弱及投资负担加重，使我们维持负面前景。数据中心需求增强及制造成本改善推高经营盈利。然而，PC市场收缩现已足以抵消短期服务器增长。Fab 28事故增加交付风险，客户端晶圆投产减少亦降低固定成本吸收。GAAP盈利包含投资及托管股份估值影响，而去年又有较大出售业务收益，因此经调整每股盈利更能反映经营表现。现金创造改善，但经调整自由现金流受惠于补助及合作伙伴资金。股权融资加强流动性，同时增加摊薄，并未消除新产能须赚取足够回报的要求。管理层预计2027年自由现金流为负，使此差别重要。股价于10月29日盘后报70.86美元，较收盘下跌23.04%。估值调整反映盈利可见度转弱，但未来代工成功仍须客户实际承诺及执行来证明。应关注PC库存、服务器供应、Fab 28恢复、制程良率、外部代工订单及资本密集度。若能持续恢复利润率，同时不再进一步依赖融资，才有助改善我们的观点。 2026年第四季度建议交易区间：60–85美元。负面前景。 

Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: Net sales US$201.944bn, +12.1% YoY; US$276m below US$202.22bn consensus. AWS revenue US$45.984bn, +39.3%; Prime Day timing reduced group growth by approximately 4 percentage points. 

• 3Q26 EPS: GAAP diluted EPS US$1.89 versus US$1.95, down 3.1% YoY; missed US$1.97 consensus by US$0.08. Prior-year earnings included US$9.5bn of pretax Anthropic gains. Operating income rose 61% to US$28.076bn. 

• 4Q26 Guidance: Net sales US$240–247bn, +12–16% YoY; operating income US$28.5–33.5bn versus US$25.0bn a year earlier. Advertising growth expected in the high teens. The company did not provide a Q4 EPS range. 

• FY26 Guidance: No full-year group revenue or EPS range provided. Cash capex maintained at approximately US$220bn for 2026, with meaningfully higher spending expected in 2027. Management projects AWS revenue growth above 40% in both 2027 and 2028; this is separate from group guidance. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: No cash dividend or new buyback authorisation announced in the results release. Trailing-12-month operating cash flow US$168.3bn, +29%; free cash flow negative US$42.4bn versus positive US$14.8bn a year earlier, reflecting elevated AI investment. 

• Comment: Amazon’s faster cloud growth and operating margin strengthen the business, but cash consumption and a cautious holiday outlook keep our view neutral. AWS demand is translating into profit, while retail efficiency provides another improvement. The EPS decline overstates operating weakness because last year’s Anthropic investment gains inflated the comparison. Prime Day’s shift also depresses reported sales growth, making the underlying retail trend stronger than the headline suggests. Nevertheless, the revenue miss and holiday guidance leave limited room for execution errors. Infrastructure spending remains the central valuation debate: rising operating cash flow is being absorbed by an even larger investment programme. Management’s ambitious cloud-growth projections improve long-term visibility, but must translate into cash returns rather than backlog alone. Capacity utilisation, depreciation and financing costs therefore deserve attention alongside revenue. Shares traded at US$226.00 post-market on 29 October, down 7.30% from the close. The lower price improves valuation support, although cash-flow uncertainty prevents a more positive stance. Watch AWS growth and margins, retail fulfilment efficiency, advertising recovery, holiday demand and the 2027 capital budget. Restoring free cash flow without sacrificing growth would strengthen the investment case. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$205–265. Neutral Outlook. 

亚马逊 (AMZN) 

• 2026财年第三季度营收：净销售额2,019.44亿美元，同比增长12.1%；较2,022.2亿美元预期低2.76亿美元。AWS收入459.84亿美元，增长39.3%；Prime Day时点变化令集团收入增速减少约4个百分点。 

• 2026财年第三季度每股收益：GAAP摊薄每股盈利1.89美元，去年1.95美元，同比下降3.1%；较1.97美元预期低0.08美元。去年盈利包含95亿美元Anthropic税前投资收益。经营利润增长61%至280.76亿美元。 

• 2026财年第四季度指引：净销售额2,400–2,470亿美元，同比增长12–16%；经营利润285–335亿美元，去年250亿美元。广告收入预计增长百分之十几的较高水平。公司未提供第四季度每股盈利区间。 

• 2026财年指引：未提供全年集团收入或每股盈利区间。2026年现金资本开支维持约2,200亿美元，预计2027年支出进一步显著增加。管理层预计2027及2028年AWS收入均增长超过40%，此与集团指引有所区别。 

• 股息与回购：业绩公告未宣布现金股息或新回购授权。过去12个月经营现金流1,683亿美元，增长29%；自由现金流为负424亿美元，去年为正148亿美元，反映较高AI投资。 

• 短评：亚马逊云增长加快及经营利润率改善，强化业务基础，但现金消耗及谨慎的假日季度前景使我们维持中性。AWS需求正转化为利润，零售效率亦提供另一改善来源。去年Anthropic投资收益抬高比较基数，令每股盈利下降夸大经营弱势。Prime Day时间前移亦压低报告收入增速，因此基础零售趋势强于表面数字。不过，收入逊预期及假日季度指引仍令执行失误空间有限。基础设施开支仍是估值争议核心：经营现金流增长，被更大的投资计划所吸收。管理层较进取的云增长预测提升长期可见度，但必须产生现金回报，不能仅形成在手订单。因此，应同时重视产能利用率、折旧及融资成本。股价于10月29日盘后报226.00美元，较收盘下跌7.30%。较低价格改善估值支持，但现金流不确定性限制更积极观点。应关注AWS增速及利润率、零售履约效率、广告恢复、假日需求及2027年资本预算。在不牺牲增长的情况下恢复自由现金流，将强化投资逻辑。 2026年第四季度建议交易区间：205–265美元。中性前景。 

Sandisk Corporation (SNDK) 

• 1Q27 Revenue: Revenue US$11.031bn, +378% YoY and +23% QoQ; approximately US$331m above US$10.70bn consensus. Data-center revenue US$4.802bn, +61% sequentially. 

• 1Q27 EPS: Non-GAAP diluted EPS US$49.51 versus US$1.22, approximately +3,958% YoY; beat US$46.41 consensus by US$3.10. GAAP EPS US$52.60 includes a US$513m equity-security gain. EPS and the observed share price use the pre-split basis; both range denominations are shown. 

• 2Q27 Guidance: Revenue US$12.2–12.6bn; non-GAAP diluted EPS US$55–57 on a pre-split basis and gross margin 84.5–85.5%. Split-adjusted EPS equivalent approximately US$6.88–7.13. No GAAP EPS guidance provided. 

• FY27 Guidance: The company did not provide full-year revenue or EPS guidance. Gross capex expected at a mid-single-digit percentage of FY27 revenue. Approximately 50% of FY27 bits and two-thirds of FY28 bits are committed under long-term customer arrangements. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: Q1 buybacks US$5.0bn, approximately 3.2m shares; no cash dividend announced. Eight-for-one split: record date 9 November, shares distributed 19 November and split-adjusted trading expected 20 November. Quarter-end cash US$5.1bn with no debt. 

• Comment: Sandisk’s data-center expansion and strong cash generation support a positive outlook, although memory margins should not be treated as permanent. Revenue growth combined higher volumes with pricing, providing broader support than a price-only upswing. Long-term customer arrangements improve visibility, but still require disciplined execution and do not eliminate cyclical or customer-concentration risks. Adjusted earnings exclude the investment gain that lifted GAAP profit. Adjusted free cash flow of US$5.696bn also excludes customer prepayments and deposits, making cash generation more persuasive than the unadjusted figure alone. Receivables increased as sales expanded, so collections remain an important check on earnings quality. The next-quarter outlook signals further growth with broadly stable gross margins, while higher planned capital spending must preserve supply discipline. Shares traded at US$1,279.50 post-market on 29 October, down 3.80% from the close, on a pre-split basis. The reaction shows that strong results still face demanding expectations. The valuation appears supported by current earnings, but a NAND pricing reversal would change that support quickly. Watch data-center mix, bit shipments, contract pricing, customer collections, technology transitions and cash returns. The announced split changes share denomination, not business value. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$1,100–1,550. Positive Outlook. 

闪迪 (SNDK) 

• 2027财年第一季度营收：收入110.31亿美元，同比增长378%、环比增长23%；较107.0亿美元预期高约3.31亿美元。数据中心收入48.02亿美元，环比增长61%。 

• 2027财年第一季度每股收益：非GAAP摊薄每股盈利49.51美元，去年1.22美元，同比增长约3,958%；较46.41美元预期高3.10美元。GAAP每股盈利52.60美元，包含5.13亿美元权益证券收益。每股盈利及所列股价按拆股前口径；另列拆股前后交易区间。 

• 2027财年第二季度指引：收入122–126亿美元；拆股前非GAAP摊薄每股盈利55–57美元、毛利率84.5–85.5%。拆股后每股盈利等值约6.88–7.13美元。未提供GAAP每股盈利指引。 

• 2027财年指引：公司未提供全年收入或每股盈利指引。总资本开支预计占2027财年收入的中个位数百分比。2027财年约50%及2028财年约三分之二的位元出货已通过长期客户安排承诺。 

• 股息与回购：首季回购50亿美元、约320万股，未宣布现金股息。一拆八：登记日11月9日，11月19日派发新增股份，预计11月20日开始按拆股后价格交易。季末现金51亿美元，无债务。 

• 短评：闪迪数据中心业务扩张及强劲现金创造支持正面前景，但存储利润率不宜视为永久水平。收入增长结合销量及定价改善，较单靠提价更具基础。长期客户安排提升可见度，但仍须纪律执行，亦不能消除周期及客户集中风险。经调整盈利剔除了推高GAAP利润的投资收益。经调整自由现金流56.96亿美元亦剔除客户预付款及保证金，令现金创造较单看未经调整数字更有说服力。销售扩大同时，应收账款增加，因此回款仍是检验盈利质量的重要指标。下季指引显示增长延续，毛利率大致稳定，而计划资本开支增加必须维持供给纪律。股价于10月29日盘后报1,279.50美元，较收盘下跌3.80%，按拆股前口径。市场反应显示，强劲业绩仍面对较高预期。现有盈利为估值提供支持，但NAND定价逆转会迅速改变这种支持。应关注数据中心结构、位元出货、合约定价、客户回款、技术转换及现金回报。宣布拆股改变每股单位，并不改变业务价值。 2026年第四季度建议交易区间：1,100–1,550美元。正面前景。 

AXT Inc. (AXTI) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: Revenue US$73.4m versus US$28.0m, +162% YoY and +54% QoQ; US$7.4m above US$66m consensus. Indium phosphide revenue US$54.3m. 

• 3Q26 EPS: Non-GAAP EPS US$0.41 versus a US$0.03 loss, a US$0.44 improvement; beat US$0.31 consensus by US$0.10. GAAP diluted EPS US$0.39 versus a US$0.04 loss. 

• 4Q26 Guidance: Management identified approximately US$90m of revenue realisable in Q4 with export permits secured or not required. Non-GAAP EPS US$0.57–0.59; GAAP EPS US$0.56–0.58; non-GAAP operating expenses approximately US$13m. 

• FY26 Guidance: The company did not provide full-year revenue or EPS guidance. Management plans further indium phosphide capacity expansion in 2027; these operating plans are separate from earnings guidance. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: No new dividend or share-buyback announcement in the Q3 release. Cash, equivalents and investments US$825.9m. Proposed Tongmei financing of up to US$545m would reduce AXT ownership to approximately 73.4%, while maintaining control. 

• Comment: AXT’s indium phosphide growth supports its AI connectivity opportunity, but execution, export controls and valuation keep our outlook neutral. Higher volumes, pricing and larger wafer diameters drove substantial gross-margin expansion, while the small gap between GAAP and adjusted EPS supports the operating improvement. Strong demand must still convert into permitted shipments. Backlog exceeds US$500m but includes multi-year agreements and cannot be treated as near-term revenue. The Q4 shipment-ready revenue figure is a more immediate test. Customer prepayments strengthen liquidity while creating delivery obligations: Lumentum’s US$43.5m payment is recorded as a liability until wafers ship. The proposed Tongmei funding supports expansion but would dilute AXT’s economic interest in that subsidiary. Increasing production also requires consistent crystal quality, customer qualification and manufacturing yields. These constraints matter when current margins reflect favourable supply and pricing. Shares traded at US$56.73 post-market on 29 October, down 6.82% from the close despite the beat. That reaction shows how much growth investors already require. Watch export permits, capacity commissioning, wafer yields, customer concentration, prepayment conversion and Tongmei financing. Sustained shipment and cash conversion would provide stronger support than backlog growth alone. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$45–72. Neutral Outlook. 

AXT公司 (AXTI) 

• 2026财年第三季度营收：收入7,340万美元，去年2,800万美元，同比增长162%，环比增长54%；较6,600万美元预期高740万美元。磷化铟收入5,430万美元。 

• 2026财年第三季度每股收益：非GAAP每股盈利0.41美元，去年每股亏损0.03美元，改善0.44美元；较0.31美元预期高0.10美元。GAAP摊薄每股盈利0.39美元，去年每股亏损0.04美元。 

• 2026财年第四季度指引：管理层确认约9,000万美元收入可于第四季度实现，相关出口许可已取得或无需许可。非GAAP每股盈利0.57–0.59美元；GAAP每股盈利0.56–0.58美元；非GAAP经营费用约1,300万美元。 

• 2026财年指引：公司未提供全年收入或每股盈利指引。管理层计划2027年进一步扩大磷化铟产能；这些经营计划与盈利指引不同。 

• 股息与回购：第三季度公告未宣布新的股息或股份回购。现金、等价物及投资8.259亿美元。拟议同美融资最高5.45亿美元，将使AXT持股比例降至约73.4%，同时保持控制权。 

• 短评：AXT磷化铟增长支持AI连接业务机会，但执行、出口管制及估值使我们维持中性。销量、定价及较大直径晶圆推动毛利率显著扩大，GAAP与经调整每股盈利差距较小，亦支持经营改善。强劲需求仍须转化为取得许可的出货。在手订单超过5亿美元，但包含多年协议，不能全部视为近期收入。第四季度可出货收入是更直接的验证。客户预付款增强流动性，同时带来交付责任：Lumentum支付的4,350万美元，在晶圆出货前列作负债。拟议同美融资支持扩产，却将摊薄AXT在该子公司的经济权益。增产亦要求稳定晶体质量、客户认证及生产良率。当前利润率受惠于供应与定价，这些限制尤其重要。尽管业绩超预期，股价于10月29日盘后报56.73美元，较收盘价下跌6.82%，显示投资者已要求相当强的增长。应关注出口许可、产能投产、晶圆良率、客户集中度、预付款转化及同美融资。持续出货及现金转化，比仅有订单增长提供更强支持。 2026年第四季度建议交易区间：45–72美元。中性前景。 

Roblox Corporation (RBLX) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: GAAP revenue US$1.572bn versus US$1.360bn, +15.6% YoY. Bookings US$1.697bn, down 11.7% YoY; approximately US$67m above US$1.63bn bookings consensus. 

• 3Q26 EPS: GAAP diluted loss per share US$0.32 versus US$0.37; loss narrowed 13.5%. Beat the US$0.41 loss consensus by US$0.09. Consolidated net loss US$230m; common-stockholder loss US$227m. 

• 4Q26 Guidance: Revenue US$1.470–1.580bn, +4–12% YoY; bookings US$1.890–2.000bn, down 15–10%. Consolidated net loss US$363–423m; free cash outflow US$105–190m, including US$380m capital expenditure and intangible purchases. No EPS range provided. 

• FY26 Guidance: The company did not provide updated full-year FY26 revenue or EPS guidance; it provided Q4 guidance instead. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: Q3 repurchases 4.4 million shares for approximately US$200m; US$2.4bn authorization remained at September-end. No cash dividend announced. Fully diluted shares 755 million, up 2% YoY. 

• Comment: Roblox’s engagement recovery has not yet repaired monetization, leaving our outlook negative. DAUs increased sequentially to 138 million and hours approached 34 billion, but bookings remained below last year’s exceptional level. Revenue growth includes recognition of earlier bookings and is therefore a lagging demand signal. The Q4 bookings decline and forecast cash outflow matter more than the smaller reported loss. Q3 cash flow also benefited from expenditure moving into Q4, so the strong quarterly cash figure overstates the improvement that can be carried forward. AI creation tools, distribution and the adult-user strategy could broaden content and spending over time, but require investment before returns are established. Higher creator payouts and infrastructure needs can pressure margins while management pursues that opportunity. Share repurchases partially offset dilution, yet fully diluted shares still rose. Shares traded at US$43.51 post-market on 29 October, down 17.06% from the close. Valuation has reset, but recovery still requires better spending conversion rather than engagement alone. Watch bookings per user, paying-user retention, older-user monetization, safety compliance, creator economics and cash spending. Persistent bookings weakness would undermine the expansion thesis. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$35–50. Negative Outlook. 

Roblox (RBLX) 

• 2026财年第三季度营收：GAAP收入15.72亿美元，去年13.60亿美元，同比增长15.6%。预订额16.97亿美元，同比下降11.7%；较16.3亿美元预订额预期高约6,700万美元。 

• 2026财年第三季度每股收益：GAAP摊薄每股亏损0.32美元，去年亏损0.37美元，亏损收窄13.5%；较每股亏损0.41美元预期好0.09美元。合并净亏损2.30亿美元；普通股股东应占亏损2.27亿美元。 

• 2026财年第四季度指引：收入14.70亿–15.80亿美元，同比增长4%–12%；预订额18.90亿–20.00亿美元，同比下降15%–10%。合并净亏损3.63亿–4.23亿美元；自由现金流出1.05亿–1.90亿美元，包括资本开支及无形资产购买3.80亿美元。未提供每股盈利区间。 

• 2026财年指引：公司未提供更新后的2026财年全年收入或每股盈利指引，而是提供第四季度指引。 

• 股息与回购：第三季度回购440万股，金额约2亿美元；截至9月底剩余回购授权24亿美元。未宣布现金股息。完全摊薄股数7.55亿股，同比增长2%。 

• 短评：Roblox参与度恢复尚未修复变现能力，因此我们维持负面前景。日活用户环比升至1.38亿，参与时数接近340亿小时，但预订额仍低于去年异常强劲水平。收入增长包括此前预订额的确认，因此属于滞后需求指标。第四季度预订额下降及预计现金流出，比报告亏损收窄更重要。第三季度现金流亦受益于开支推迟至第四季度，因此强劲季度现金数据高估可延续的改善。AI创作工具、分发及成年用户策略，长远可能扩大内容及消费，但回报确立前需要投资。公司争取该机会时，较高创作者分成及基础设施需求可能压低利润率。股份回购部分抵消摊薄，但完全摊薄股数仍上升。股价于10月29日盘后报43.51美元，较收盘价下跌17.06%。估值已调整，但复苏仍需要更好的消费转化，而非仅靠参与度。应关注每用户预订额、付费用户留存、成年用户变现、安全合规、创作者经济及现金开支。预订额持续疲弱将削弱扩张逻辑。 2026年第四季度建议交易区间：35–50美元。负面前景。 

Reddit Inc. (RDDT) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: Revenue US$895m versus US$585m, +53% YoY; beat US$878.02m consensus by US$16.98m. Advertising revenue US$847m, +54%; other revenue US$48m, +35%. 

• 3Q26 EPS: GAAP diluted EPS US$1.40 versus US$0.80, +75%; beat US$1.36 consensus by US$0.04. Net income approximately US$283m; adjusted EBITDA US$402m, +70%. 

• 4Q26 Guidance: Revenue US$1.000–1.030bn; adjusted EBITDA US$480–510m. No Q4 EPS guidance provided. The revenue range is below approximately US$1.046bn consensus. 

• FY26 Guidance: The company did not provide full-year FY26 revenue or EPS guidance. Its published financial outlook covers Q4 revenue and adjusted EBITDA. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: Q3 repurchases approximately 670,000 Class A shares for US$100m. Fully diluted shares 206.3 million, down 0.3% sequentially; cash and marketable securities US$3.03bn. No cash dividend announced. 

• Comment: Reddit’s monetization and cash generation remain strong, but deteriorating search referrals leave our outlook neutral. Advertising grew much faster than daily users, showing better monetization rather than traffic alone. High gross margins and operating leverage translated growth into GAAP profit and cash, supporting the quality of the quarter. The forward issue is distribution: management said referral declines accelerated late in Q3 and continued into October. If that pace persists, it sees potential for a low-double-digit sequential decline in Q4 daily users. Logged-in and app audiences are more valuable and grew sequentially, but their expansion must offset reduced web discovery. Login requirements and product changes could improve retention and limit scraping, while also creating conversion friction. Higher user-acquisition spending could absorb some margin gains. Shares traded at US$106.00 post-market on 29 October, down 18.21% from the close. The lower valuation offers more balance, but the Q4 sales outlook below expectations argues against assuming uninterrupted growth. Watch search referrals, app retention, logged-in engagement, advertiser returns, acquisition spending and data-licensing renewals. We require evidence that direct usage can replace lost referrals before adopting a more positive stance. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$90–125. Neutral Outlook. 

Reddit (RDDT) 

• 2026财年第三季度营收：收入8.95亿美元，去年5.85亿美元，同比增长53%；较8.7802亿美元预期高1,698万美元。广告收入8.47亿美元，增长54%；其他收入4,800万美元，增长35%。 

• 2026财年第三季度每股收益：GAAP摊薄每股盈利1.40美元，去年0.80美元，增长75%；较1.36美元预期高0.04美元。净利润约2.83亿美元；经调整EBITDA为4.02亿美元，增长70%。 

• 2026财年第四季度指引：收入10.00亿–10.30亿美元；经调整EBITDA为4.80亿–5.10亿美元。未提供第四季度每股盈利指引。收入区间低于约10.46亿美元预期。 

• 2026财年指引：公司未提供2026财年全年收入或每股盈利指引。公布的财务展望仅涵盖第四季度收入及经调整EBITDA。 

• 股息与回购：第三季度回购约67万股A类股，金额1亿美元。完全摊薄股数2.063亿股，环比下降0.3%；现金及有价证券30.3亿美元。未宣布现金股息。 

• 短评：Reddit变现及现金创造仍强，但搜索引流恶化使我们维持中性。广告增速远高于日活用户，显示增长来自更好变现，而非仅靠流量。高毛利率及经营杠杆使增长转化为GAAP利润及现金，支持本季度质量。前瞻问题在于分发：管理层表示引流下滑在第三季度末加速，并延续至10月。若该速度持续，第四季度日活用户可能环比下降低双位数。登录及应用用户更有价值，且环比增长，但其扩张须抵消网页发现减少。登录要求及产品调整可能改善留存并限制数据抓取，同时亦可能增加转化阻力。更多获客开支可能消耗部分利润率改善。股价于10月29日盘后报106.00美元，较收盘价下跌18.21%。较低估值提供更大平衡，但第四季度销售展望低于预期，不宜假设增长不受中断。应关注搜索引流、应用留存、登录用户参与度、广告主回报、获客开支及数据授权续约。转向更积极观点前，我们需要看到直接使用能够替代流失引流的证据。 2026年第四季度建议交易区间：90–125美元。中性前景。 

Twilio Inc. (TWLO) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: Revenue US$1.560bn, +20% YoY; approximately US$50m above US$1.51bn consensus. Organic revenue growth 16%; dollar-based net expansion 114% versus 109%. 

• 3Q26 EPS: Non-GAAP diluted EPS US$1.65 versus US$1.25, +32%; beat US$1.47 consensus by US$0.18. GAAP diluted EPS US$1.00 versus US$0.23; GAAP operating income US$148.6m, +263%. 

• 4Q26 Guidance: Revenue US$1.595–1.605bn; organic growth 11–12%; non-GAAP diluted EPS US$1.48–1.53. Non-GAAP operating income US$300–310m. 

• FY26 Guidance: Reported revenue growth raised to 20% from 18–18.5%; organic growth 15% from 13–13.5%. Non-GAAP operating income and FCF each US$1.190–1.200bn from US$1.135–1.155bn. Preliminary FY27: organic growth at least 10%; non-GAAP operating income and FCF each at least US$1.35bn. No FY26 EPS guidance provided. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: Q3 repurchases US$127.2m; approximately US$700m remained under the US$2.0bn program at September-end, expiring December 2027. No cash dividend announced. Q3 free cash flow US$369.6m. 

• Comment: Twilio’s improving expansion rate, profitability and annual guidance support the business, but slower forward growth leaves our outlook neutral. Messaging, voice and AI-enabled customer interactions broaden demand, while higher usage from existing customers is an encouraging operating signal. Organic growth is more informative than reported sales because carrier-fee pass-through contributes to the difference. Gross-profit growth and cash conversion help establish whether additional traffic creates shareholder value. GAAP operating profit improved substantially, although stock-based compensation remains a large adjustment to non-GAAP earnings and an ongoing dilution cost. Q4 organic guidance slows from Q3, and the preliminary 2027 outlook establishes a floor rather than promising continued acceleration. Product investment and commercial execution must convert AI adoption into durable, profitable volumes. Shares traded at US$201.00 post-market on 29 October, down 16.91% from the close despite the beat and higher annual targets. That reset improves valuation balance but shows how much growth investors had anticipated. Watch organic revenue, gross profit, net expansion, AI-related usage, carrier fees and share-count trends. Sustained cash generation offers buyback flexibility, while reacceleration without margin sacrifice would support a stronger view. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$180–235. Neutral Outlook. 

Twilio (TWLO) 

• 2026财年第三季度营收：收入15.60亿美元，同比增长20%；较15.1亿美元预期高约5,000万美元。有机收入增长16%；美元净扩张率114%，去年109%。 

• 2026财年第三季度每股收益：非GAAP摊薄每股盈利1.65美元，去年1.25美元，增长32%；较1.47美元预期高0.18美元。GAAP摊薄每股盈利1.00美元，去年0.23美元；GAAP经营利润1.486亿美元，增长263%。 

• 2026财年第四季度指引：收入15.95亿–16.05亿美元；有机增长11%–12%；非GAAP摊薄每股盈利1.48–1.53美元。非GAAP经营利润3.00亿–3.10亿美元。 

• 2026财年指引：报告收入增速由18%–18.5%上调至20%；有机增速由13%–13.5%上调至15%。非GAAP经营利润及自由现金流各由11.35亿–11.55亿美元上调至11.90亿–12.00亿美元。2027年初步展望：有机增长至少10%；非GAAP经营利润及自由现金流各至少13.5亿美元。未提供2026财年每股盈利指引。 

• 股息与回购：第三季度回购1.272亿美元；截至9月底，20亿美元计划剩余约7亿美元，计划于2027年12月到期。未宣布现金股息。第三季度自由现金流3.696亿美元。 

• 短评：Twilio扩张率、盈利能力及全年指引改善，支持业务基础，但前瞻增长放缓使我们维持中性。消息、语音及AI客户互动扩大需求，现有客户用量增加亦是积极经营信号。有机增长比报告销售更有参考价值，因为运营商费用转嫁贡献两者差异。毛利增长及现金转化，有助判断新增流量是否创造股东价值。GAAP经营利润明显改善，不过股权薪酬仍是非GAAP盈利的大额调整项及持续摊薄成本。第四季度有机指引较第三季度放缓，2027年初步展望确立下限，而非承诺持续加速。产品投入及商业执行，须将AI采用转化为持久且有利润的用量。尽管业绩超预期及全年目标提高，股价于10月29日盘后报201.00美元，较收盘价下跌16.91%。调整改善估值平衡，但亦显示投资者此前已预期较多增长。应关注有机收入、毛利、净扩张、AI相关用量、运营商费用及股数趋势。持续现金创造提供回购灵活性，而不牺牲利润率的重新加速，将支持更积极观点。 2026年第四季度建议交易区间：180–235美元。中性前景。 

Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: Total revenue US$1.2156bn versus US$1.8687bn, down 35.0% YoY; approximately US$14.4m below US$1.23bn consensus. Transaction revenue US$590.2m; subscription and services US$570.2m. 

• 3Q26 EPS: GAAP diluted EPS US$2.51 versus US$1.50, +67.3%; beat a US$0.10 loss consensus by US$2.61. Net income US$718.7m included US$715.0m pre-tax crypto-investment gains. Adjusted net income US$77.7m versus US$420.7m. 

• 4Q26 Guidance: Subscription and services revenue US$550–630m; adjusted expenses US$1.007–1.157bn; stock-based compensation approximately US$240m. No Q4 total-revenue or EPS target provided. Transaction revenue through 25 October was approximately US$165m, not a quarterly forecast. 

• FY26 Guidance: Adjusted expense guidance lowered and narrowed to US$4.150–4.300bn from US$4.200–4.450bn. The company did not provide full-year FY26 total-revenue or EPS guidance. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: Approximately US$2.0bn of buyback authorization remained at September-end. Nine-month common-stock repurchases US$1.249bn; cash and equivalents US$8.6bn. No cash dividend announced. 

• Comment: Coinbase’s diversification and expense discipline are improving resilience, but the headline profit rebound overstates operating progress, leaving our outlook neutral. Crypto-investment gains accounted for most GAAP profit, while adjusted net income remained well below last year. Trading market-share gains are encouraging, yet lower market activity and revenue demonstrate that share gains cannot fully offset the cycle. Stablecoin balances, paid subscriptions and prediction markets broaden monetization, with the latter exceeding a US$200m annualized revenue pace. That pace is an operating indicator rather than guaranteed annual revenue. Subscription and services also remain sensitive to asset prices, interest rates and reward-sharing arrangements. Lower expenses supported sequential EBITDA recovery, but Q4 marketing and professional costs are expected to increase. Shares traded at US$152.85 post-market on 29 October, down 4.82% from the close. Valuation should rest on durable transaction economics and recurring earnings rather than volatile investment marks. Watch trading volumes, retail mix, USDC balances and economics, derivatives integration, prediction-market regulation and expense control. The cash balance supports investment through weaker markets, but dilution, cybersecurity exposure and changing regulation remain constraints on the equity case. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$130–185. Neutral Outlook. 

Coinbase (COIN) 

• 2026财年第三季度营收：总收入12.156亿美元，去年18.687亿美元，同比下降35.0%；较12.3亿美元预期低约1,440万美元。交易收入5.902亿美元；订阅及服务收入5.702亿美元。 

• 2026财年第三季度每股收益：GAAP摊薄每股盈利2.51美元，去年1.50美元，增长67.3%；较每股亏损0.10美元预期好2.61美元。净利润7.187亿美元，包括税前加密资产投资收益7.150亿美元。经调整净利润7,770万美元，去年4.207亿美元。 

• 2026财年第四季度指引：订阅及服务收入5.50亿–6.30亿美元；经调整费用10.07亿–11.57亿美元；股权薪酬约2.40亿美元。未提供第四季度总收入或每股盈利目标。截至10月25日交易收入约1.65亿美元，并非季度预测。 

• 2026财年指引：经调整费用指引由42.00亿–44.50亿美元下调并收窄至41.50亿–43.00亿美元。公司未提供2026财年全年总收入或每股盈利指引。 

• 股息与回购：截至9月底，剩余回购授权约20亿美元。首九个月普通股回购12.49亿美元；现金及等价物86亿美元。未宣布现金股息。 

• 短评：Coinbase多元化及费用纪律改善业务韧性，但表面利润回升高估经营进展，因此我们维持中性。加密资产投资收益占GAAP利润大部分，而经调整净利润仍远低于去年。交易市占率提升令人鼓舞，但市场活动及收入减少，显示份额增长未能完全抵消周期。稳定币余额、付费订阅及预测市场扩大变现，预测市场年化收入速度超过2亿美元；此为经营指标，并非全年收入保证。订阅及服务仍受资产价格、利率及奖励分成安排影响。费用降低支持EBITDA环比恢复，但第四季度营销及专业服务成本预计增加。股价于10月29日盘后报152.85美元，较收盘价下跌4.82%。估值应建立在持久交易经济及经常性盈利，而非波动投资估值收益之上。应关注交易量、零售结构、USDC余额及收益机制、衍生品整合、预测市场监管及费用控制。现金余额支持公司在弱市继续投资，但摊薄、网络安全及监管变化仍约束股权投资逻辑。 2026年第四季度建议交易区间：130–185美元。中性前景。 

Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) 

• 4Q26 Revenue: Revenue US$9.1412bn versus US$9.5690bn, down 4.5% YoY; approximately US$88.8m below US$9.23bn consensus. Global comparable sales +7.2%; U.S. comparable sales +7.7%. 

• 4Q26 EPS: Non-GAAP EPS US$0.80 versus US$0.52, +54% YoY; beat approximately US$0.72 consensus by US$0.08. GAAP EPS US$0.59 versus US$0.12, +392%, helped by lower restructuring costs. 

• 1Q27 Guidance: The company did not provide a standalone Q1 total-revenue or EPS range. Management expects a more balanced quarterly North America comparable-sales cadence than FY26. 

• FY27 Guidance: Initial FY27 guidance: revenue down approximately 1%; North America comparable sales +4%; non-GAAP operating margin 13.5–14.0%; EPS US$3.15–3.25. FY27 has 53 weeks; the extra week contributes approximately US$700m revenue and slightly more than US$0.10 EPS. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: Quarterly dividend US$0.63/share, payable 27 November to holders of record on 13 November. Plans to resume repurchases with approximately US$1bn in FY27; capital expenditure approximately 5% of revenue. 

• Comment: Starbucks’ improving U.S. demand and margins support the recovery, but international weakness and the valuation keep our outlook neutral. China’s conversion to a licensed joint venture reduces consolidated revenue, so the reported decline should not be interpreted as an equivalent drop in consumer demand. U.S. transaction growth and higher average tickets provide better evidence of progress, although traffic growth moderated from Q3. International transactions declined, limiting the breadth of the recovery. Lower restructuring costs amplify GAAP earnings growth, while investment gains also supported other income. Adjusted operating-margin expansion is the more useful signal, but its durability depends on service productivity and cost control. The FY27 outlook includes an extra trading week, so part of the projected earnings increase is calendar-related. Store closures improve portfolio quality while reducing near-term revenue and requiring customers to transfer successfully to remaining locations. Shares traded at US$103.74 post-market on 29 October, down 1.68% from the close. The price already reflects a substantial recovery; consistent traffic and cash generation are needed to support further gains. Watch transactions, food attachment, labour productivity, international demand, coffee costs and execution of the higher margin target. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$90–118. Neutral Outlook. 

星巴克 (SBUX) 

• 2026财年第四季度营收：收入91.412亿美元，去年95.690亿美元，同比下降4.5%；较92.3亿美元预期低约8,880万美元。全球同店销售增长7.2%；美国同店销售增长7.7%。 

• 2026财年第四季度每股收益：非GAAP每股盈利0.80美元，去年0.52美元，同比增长54%；较约0.72美元预期高0.08美元。GAAP每股盈利0.59美元，去年0.12美元，增长392%，受惠于重组费用减少。 

• 2027财年第一季度指引：公司未提供独立第一季度总收入或每股盈利区间。管理层预计北美同店销售的季度表现较2026财年更均衡。 

• 2027财年指引：首次提供2027财年指引：收入下降约1%；北美同店销售增长4%；非GAAP经营利润率13.5–14.0%；每股盈利3.15–3.25美元。2027财年有53周；额外一周贡献约7亿美元收入及略高于0.10美元的每股盈利。 

• 股息与回购：季度股息每股0.63美元，11月27日支付，登记日11月13日。计划2027财年恢复回购，金额约10亿美元；资本支出约为收入5%。 

• 短评：星巴克美国需求及利润率改善支持复苏，但国际业务疲弱及估值使我们维持中性。中国业务转为授权合资模式，减少合并收入，因此报告收入下降并不代表消费者需求同比例减少。美国交易量增长及客单价提高，更能反映进展，但交易量增速较第三季度放缓。国际交易量下降，限制复苏广度。重组费用减少放大GAAP盈利增速，而投资收益亦支持其他收入。经调整经营利润率扩大更具参考价值，但持续性取决于服务效率及成本控制。2027财年前景包含额外营业周，因此部分预期盈利增长来自日历因素。关店改善门店组合，却减少短期收入，并要求客户顺利转移至保留门店。10月29日盘后股价报103.74美元，较收盘价下跌1.68%。股价已反映相当程度复苏；持续交易量及现金创造，才可支持进一步上涨。应关注交易量、食品搭售、劳动效率、国际需求、咖啡成本及更高利润率目标的执行。 2026年第四季度建议交易区间：90–118美元。中性前景。