American Express Company (AXP)
- 3Q26 Revenue: US$20.062bn, +8.9% YoY from US$18.426bn; approximately US$58m below US$20.12bn consensus. Revenue is net of interest expense.
- 3Q26 EPS: Adjusted diluted EPS US$4.68 versus US$4.14, +13.0%; beat US$4.50 consensus by US$0.18. GAAP diluted EPS US$5.42, +30.9%. Adjustments exclude the GBTG disposal gain and related restructuring charge.
- 4Q26 Guidance: The company did not provide standalone Q4 revenue or EPS guidance. Management expects variable customer engagement expense growth to moderate significantly as the Platinum refresh anniversary is reached.
- FY26 Guidance: Revenue growth of 10% reaffirmed. GAAP EPS raised to US$18.30–18.60 from US$17.30–17.90; adjusted EPS US$17.60–17.90, raising the prior lower bound by US$0.30. The adjusted range excludes the net GBTG gain and restructuring impact.
- Dividend/Share Buyback: Q3 capital returned to shareholders approximately US$2.2bn, comprising US$1.6bn of share repurchases and US$0.6bn of dividends. Quarter-end CET1 ratio 10.9%, within the 10–11% target range.
- Comment: American Express maintained solid premium-customer momentum, but the quarter supports a neutral outlook as earnings quality and execution warrant attention. Billed business rose 8% to US$454bn, while net card fees grew 17% on an FX-adjusted basis. This supports the economics of the Platinum refresh and the value of recurring membership revenue. Commercial spending grew more slowly, limiting the breadth of expansion. The adjusted EPS beat and higher guidance floor are encouraging, although the larger reported earnings increase includes the GBTG disposal gain. Legal-reserve costs, a discrete tax benefit and credit-model updates also affected adjusted earnings, so its growth should not be read as purely operating improvement. Credit performance remained resilient, with the write-off rate at 1.8%; however, the US$211m reserve release is not a dependable source of recurring profit. Management’s expected moderation in engagement-cost growth could help margins, provided card retention and spending hold up. The restructuring introduces execution risk, while regulatory remediation remains a monitoring point. Shares closed at US$313.22 on 23 October, down 3.68%, despite the earnings beat. At approximately 17.6 times the revised adjusted FY26 EPS midpoint, valuation appears reasonable, but a sustained rerating requires stronger operating leverage. Our range applies 16–20 times that midpoint. Watch fee renewal, commercial spending, rewards costs, credit trends and remediation progress. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$285–355. Neutral Outlook.
美国运通 (AXP)
- 26财年第三季度营收：收入200.62亿美元，去年184.26亿美元，同比增长8.9%；较201.2亿美元市场预期低约5,800万美元。收入已扣除利息支出。
- 26财年第三季度每股收益：经调整摊薄每股盈利4.68美元，去年4.14美元，同比增长13.0%；较4.50美元预期高0.18美元。GAAP摊薄每股盈利5.42美元，增长30.9%。调整剔除出售GBTG权益的收益及相关重组费用。
- 26财年第四季度指引：公司未提供独立的第四季度收入或每股盈利指引。随着白金卡升级满一年，管理层预计可变客户互动费用增速将显著放缓。
- 26财年全年指引：维持收入增长10%的指引。GAAP每股盈利由17.30–17.90美元上调至18.30–18.60美元；经调整每股盈利为17.60–17.90美元，较此前区间下限提高0.30美元。调整后区间剔除GBTG出售收益及重组费用的净影响。
- 股息与回购：第三季度向股东返还约22亿美元，包括16亿美元股份回购及6亿美元股息。季末普通股一级资本充足率为10.9%，处于10–11%的目标区间内。
- 短评：美国运通高端客户业务保持稳健，但盈利质量及执行情况仍需关注，我们维持中性前景。签账额增长8%至4,540亿美元，净卡费收入按固定汇率增长17%，支持白金卡升级的经济效益及经常性会员收入的价值。不过，商业客户支出增长较慢，业务扩张并不均衡。经调整每股盈利超预期及全年指引下限提高令人鼓舞，但报告盈利较大增幅包含出售GBTG权益收益。法律准备金费用、一次性税务收益及信贷模型更新亦影响调整后盈利，因此不宜将其增长完全视为经营改善。信贷表现仍具韧性，净核销率为1.8%；不过，2.11亿美元拨备释放并非可靠的经常性利润来源。若客户留存率及支出保持稳健，管理层预计客户互动费用增速放缓有望支持利润率。重组带来执行风险，监管整改亦需持续跟进。尽管盈利超预期，股价于10月23日收报313.22美元，下跌3.68%。按修订后的全年经调整每股盈利中值计算，估值约17.6倍，属合理水平，但持续重估仍需更强经营杠杆支持。我们的区间采用该盈利中值的16–20倍市盈率。应关注卡费续订、商业支出、奖励成本、信贷趋势及整改进展。 2026年第四季度建议交易区间：285–355美元。中性前景。
