Technical Analysis: 21 October 2026

GE Aerospace (GE)

• 3Q26 Revenue: Q3 adjusted revenue US$13.285bn, +18% YoY, versus US$12.85bn consensus: beat US$435m (3.4%). GAAP revenue US$14.118bn, +16% YoY.

• 3Q26 EPS: Adjusted diluted EPS US$2.25, +36% YoY, versus US$2.00 consensus: beat US$0.25 (12.5%). GAAP continuing EPS US$2.32, +14% YoY.

• 4Q26 Guidance: No standalone numerical Q4 revenue or EPS guidance provided; full-year outlook updated.

• FY26 Guidance: FY2026 adjusted revenue growth around 19-20%, from high teens; operating profit US$10.9-11.0bn, from US$10.55-10.75bn; adjusted EPS US$8.00-8.10, from US$7.65-7.85; FCF US$9.1-9.4bn, from US$8.9-9.2bn. Initial 2027 commercial-services revenue growth outlook: low double digits.

• Dividend/Share Buyback: Previously declared quarterly dividend US$0.47, payable 26 October 2026. Existing US$20bn repurchase authorisation approved in December 2025; no new authorisation identified in Q3 release. Q3 FCF US$2.042bn, down 14% YoY.

• Comment: We maintain a Positive outlook, but favour buying on weakness rather than paying for uninterrupted acceleration. Commercial maintenance remains the core attraction: engine fleets generate recurring shop visits and spare-parts demand long after their initial sale. The strong orders and expanding services backlog support visibility beyond the current aircraft production cycle, while improving supplier output allows more demand to become revenue. The quarter nevertheless requires a careful earnings bridge. Operating profit drove more than 90% of EPS improvement, which is encouraging. However, lower corporate costs partly reflected accrual timing, and the full-year upgrade also benefits from a lower tax assumption and reduced expected GE9X impact as certification shifts recognition. These are different from a permanent increase in underlying service profitability. Commercial segment margins also eased slightly despite strong growth, reflecting mix and inflation. Cash conversion is the next test. Quarterly free cash flow declined even though earnings improved, so the higher annual cash outlook still needs delivery in the final quarter. We would look for inventory discipline and consistent collection rather than extrapolating the earnings beat alone. Shares closed at US$299.87 on 20 October, down 3.67%. That equals about 37.3 times the new adjusted EPS midpoint, leaving limited room for operational disappointment. Services durability supports our positive stance, while certification timing, inflation and the premium valuation argue for gradual accumulation. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$282–322. Positive Outlook.

通用电气航空航天 (GE)

• 26财年第三季度营收：第三季调整后营收132.85亿美元，同比增长18%，高于市场预期128.5亿美元达4.35亿美元（3.4%）。GAAP营收141.18亿美元，同比增长16%。

• 26财年第三季度每股收益：调整后摊薄每股盈利2.25美元，同比增长36%，高于市场预期2.00美元达0.25美元（12.5%）。GAAP持续经营每股盈利2.32美元，同比增长14%。

• 26财年第四季度指引：公司未提供独立的第四季营收或每股盈利数值指引，改为更新全年展望。

• 26财年全年指引：2026年调整后营收增长由百分之十几的高段上调至约19%至20%；营业利润由105.5亿至107.5亿美元上调至109亿至110亿美元；调整后每股盈利由7.65至7.85美元上调至8.00至8.10美元；自由现金流由89亿至92亿美元上调至91亿至94亿美元。初步预计2027年商用服务营收实现低双位数增长。

• 股息与回购：此前宣布季度股息每股0.47美元，于2026年10月26日支付。现有200亿美元回购额度于2025年12月批准，本季业绩未公布新额度。第三季自由现金流20.42亿美元，同比下降14%。

• 短评：我们维持正面展望，但倾向趁回落吸纳，避免为增长持续加速支付过高价格。商用发动机维修仍是核心吸引力：发动机交付后，机队长期产生维修进厂及备件需求。强劲订单和不断扩大的服务积压订单，提高当前飞机生产周期以外的收入可见度；供应商产出改善，则有助将更多需求转化为营收。 不过，本季盈利增长仍需仔细拆解。营业利润贡献超过90%的每股盈利增量，令人鼓舞。但企业成本下降部分来自应计费用时点，全年指引上调亦受益于较低税率假设，以及认证时间影响确认安排后，预计GE9X带来的负担减少。这些因素不同于服务业务核心盈利能力永久提升。尽管增长强劲，商用业务利润率仍受组合及通胀影响而轻微回落。 现金转换是下一项检验。盈利改善之际，季度自由现金流却下降，因此全年现金流目标上调仍需第四季兑现。我们更关注库存纪律和稳定回款，而非单纯外推盈利超预期。 股价于10月20日收报299.87美元，下跌3.67%，相当于最新调整后每股盈利指引中值约37.3倍，容错空间有限。服务业务的持续性支持正面观点，但认证时点、通胀及较高估值令逐步建仓更合适。 26财年第四季度建议交易区间：282–322美元。正面前景。

General Motors (GM)

• 3Q26 Revenue: Q3 revenue US$50.015bn, +2.9% YoY, beating Seeking Alpha consensus by US$1.25bn (2.6%).

• 3Q26 EPS: Adjusted diluted EPS US$3.70, +32.2% YoY, beats US$3.63 consensus by US$0.07 (1.9%). GAAP diluted EPS US$3.73 versus US$1.35 a year earlier.

• 4Q26 Guidance: No standalone numerical Q4 revenue or EPS guidance provided.

• FY26 Guidance: FY2026 adjusted EBIT narrowed to US$14.5-15.5bn from US$14-16bn, unchanged US$15bn midpoint. Adjusted EPS US$12.75-13.75 versus US$12-14. Adjusted automotive FCF raised to US$11.5-12.5bn from US$9.5-11.5bn. GAAP EPS US$9.72-10.72 versus US$8.98-10.98. No annual revenue guide provided.

• Dividend/Share Buyback: New US$20bn multi-year buyback authorisation with no expiry; January US$6bn programme completed. Quarterly dividend US$0.18 payable 17 December to holders on 4 December. Shares outstanding 849m versus 904m at year-end 2025.

• Comment: We maintain a Neutral outlook despite the attractive headline earnings multiple. GM generated solid North American profit and cash flow, but the updated outlook does not establish a higher operating-profit trajectory. The adjusted EBIT midpoint remains unchanged, while the higher EPS midpoint partly reflects the benefit of a shrinking share count. Investors should distinguish capital allocation from underlying profit growth. North America provides the strongest support. Its adjusted margin improved to 8.7%, and quarterly adjusted automotive free cash flow rose 40%. These results give management financial capacity to fund investment and repurchases. However, weaker international earnings and lower GM Financial profit show that the recovery is uneven. Sustained pricing and profitable vehicle mix will matter more than another small consensus beat. The new US$20bn repurchase authorisation is substantial, but it is permission to buy shares over time rather than cash already returned. The programme has no expiry and can be suspended, so we would assess actual execution alongside operating cash flow. The higher annual cash-flow outlook is more meaningful near-term evidence than the authorisation alone. Shares closed at US$77.09 on 20 October, down 6.84%, despite the earnings beat. At about 5.8 times the new adjusted EPS midpoint, valuation provides support, but the discount also reflects cyclicality and uncertainty over sustainable margins. We would become more constructive on clearer operating-profit upgrades, rather than relying predominantly on buybacks to lift EPS. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$73–86. Neutral Outlook.

通用汽车 (GM)

• 26财年第三季度营收：第三季营收500.15亿美元，同比增长2.9%，较Seeking Alpha市场预期高12.5亿美元（2.6%）。

• 26财年第三季度每股收益：调整后摊薄每股盈利3.70美元，同比增长32.2%，高于市场预期3.63美元达0.07美元（1.9%）。GAAP摊薄每股盈利3.73美元，上年同期1.35美元。

• 26财年第四季度指引：公司未提供独立的第四季营收或每股盈利数值指引。

• 26财年全年指引：2026年调整后息税前利润由140亿至160亿美元收窄至145亿至155亿美元，中值仍为150亿美元；调整后每股盈利由12至14美元调整至12.75至13.75美元；调整后汽车自由现金流由95亿至115亿美元上调至115亿至125亿美元；GAAP每股盈利由8.98至10.98美元调整至9.72至10.72美元。公司未提供全年营收指引。

• 股息与回购：新批准200亿美元多年回购额度，无到期日；1月批准的60亿美元计划已完成。季度股息每股0.18美元，12月4日登记、12月17日支付。流通股8.49亿股，低于2025年底9.04亿股。

• 短评：尽管表面盈利估值吸引，我们维持中性展望。通用汽车北美盈利及现金流稳健，但更新后的指引未确立更高的经营利润增长轨迹。调整后息税前利润中值不变，每股盈利中值提高则部分反映股数减少的贡献。投资者需要区分资本配置与核心利润增长。 北美业务构成最强支持，调整后利润率升至8.7%，季度调整后汽车自由现金流增长40%，为投资和回购提供财力。但国际业务盈利转弱，GM Financial盈利亦下降，反映复苏并不均衡。维持售价和有利车型组合，比再次小幅超预期更重要。 新增200亿美元回购额度规模可观，但这是未来回购的授权，而非已经返还股东的现金。计划无到期日且可暂停，因此应结合经营现金流评估实际执行。对短期基本面而言，全年现金流指引上调，比授权金额本身更有意义。 尽管盈利超预期，股价于10月20日收报77.09美元，下跌6.84%，相当于最新调整后每股盈利指引中值约5.8倍。低估值提供支撑，但折价也反映周期性及利润率可持续性的不确定。若经营利润预期明确上调，而非主要依赖回购推高每股盈利，我们将更趋积极。 26财年第四季度建议交易区间：73–86美元。中性前景。

RTX Corporation (RTX)

• 3Q26 Revenue: Q3 sales US$24.965bn, +11.1% YoY (+12% organic), beats Seeking Alpha consensus by US$859.6m (3.6%).

• 3Q26 EPS: Adjusted EPS US$2.26, +33% YoY, beats US$1.78 consensus by US$0.48 (27.0%). Includes US$0.25 IEEPA recovery; excluding it mechanically gives US$2.01. GAAP EPS US$1.89 versus US$1.41.

• 4Q26 Guidance: No standalone numerical Q4 sales or EPS guidance provided.

• FY26 Guidance: FY2026 adjusted sales US$97-97.5bn versus US$95-96bn; organic growth 10-11% versus 8-9%; adjusted EPS US$7.65-7.75 versus US$7.10-7.25; FCF US$9.0-9.2bn versus US$8.50-8.75bn. No forward GAAP EPS reconciliation provided.

• Dividend/Share Buyback: Q3 dividends paid US$984m; no common-stock repurchases in Q3 or first nine months. Current quarterly dividend US$0.73. Q3 FCF US$2.1bn; operating cash flow US$2.9bn includes around US$0.3bn IEEPA recovery.

• Comment: We maintain a Positive outlook, supported by growth across commercial aftermarket and defense. The backlog provides substantial revenue visibility, while rising engine maintenance demand offers a route to better utilisation and operating leverage. The combination gives RTX more than one growth driver, although delivery capacity remains essential to converting orders into cash. The size of the earnings beat needs adjustment. Reported adjusted EPS includes US$0.25 of IEEPA cost recovery; removing it mechanically leaves US$2.01, still above the US$1.78 consensus. This confirms genuine operating strength but avoids treating the whole 33% EPS increase as recurring growth. The recovery also supported operating cash flow, so both profit and cash comparisons benefit from it. Pratt & Whitney’s aftermarket growth was strong, but a customer-bankruptcy charge reduced reported operating profit and was excluded from adjusted results. That distinction matters because customer financial stress can still create real economic losses. We would monitor collection, repair turnaround and the durability of margins rather than relying solely on adjusted earnings. The higher sales, earnings and cash-flow outlook reinforces the operating direction. Shares closed at US$193.34 on 20 October, up 0.64%, implying approximately 25.1 times the new full-year adjusted EPS midpoint. That valuation recognises the recovery and demands continued execution. Risks include engine remediation, supplier bottlenecks and a slower conversion of defense orders into deliveries. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$177–208. Positive Outlook.

雷神技术 (RTX)

• 26财年第三季度营收：第三季营收249.65亿美元，同比增长11.1%，有机增长12%，高于Seeking Alpha市场预期8.596亿美元（3.6%）。

• 26财年第三季度每股收益：调整后每股盈利2.26美元，同比增长33%，高于市场预期1.78美元达0.48美元（27.0%）。其中包含0.25美元IEEPA成本回收，机械扣除后为2.01美元。GAAP每股盈利1.89美元，上年1.41美元。

• 26财年第四季度指引：公司未提供独立的第四季营收或每股盈利数值指引。

• 26财年全年指引：2026年调整后营收由950亿至960亿美元上调至970亿至975亿美元；有机增长由8%至9%上调至10%至11%；调整后每股盈利由7.10至7.25美元上调至7.65至7.75美元；自由现金流由85亿至87.5亿美元上调至90亿至92亿美元。未提供前瞻GAAP每股盈利对账。

• 股息与回购：第三季支付股息9.84亿美元，第三季及首九个月均未回购普通股。现行季度股息每股0.73美元。第三季自由现金流21亿美元，经营现金流29亿美元，其中约3亿美元来自IEEPA成本回收。

• 短评：我们维持正面展望，商用售后服务及国防业务均支持增长。积压订单提高营收可见度，发动机维修需求上升则有助产能利用及经营杠杆改善。两者为RTX提供多个增长来源，但能否交付仍决定订单转化为现金的速度。 盈利超预期幅度需作调整。调整后每股盈利包含0.25美元IEEPA成本回收，机械扣除后为2.01美元，仍高于1.78美元市场预期，反映经营实力。但不应将全部33%的每股盈利增长视为可重复。成本回收亦支持经营现金流，因此盈利和现金流比较均受其提振。 普惠售后业务增长强劲，但客户破产费用压低已报告营业利润，该费用在调整后业绩中被剔除。这一点值得关注，因为客户财务压力仍可带来真实经济损失。我们更关注回款、维修周期及利润率持续性，而非只看调整后盈利。 营收、盈利及现金流指引上调，强化业务向好趋势。股价于10月20日收报193.34美元，上涨0.64%，相当于最新全年调整后每股盈利中值约25.1倍。估值已反映复苏，需要持续执行支持。风险包括发动机补救成本、供应商瓶颈，以及国防订单交付转化较慢。 26财年第四季度建议交易区间：177–208美元。正面前景。

Northrop Grumman (NOC)

• 3Q26 Revenue: Q3 sales US$11.122bn, +6.7% YoY, misses Seeking Alpha consensus by US$4.99m (less than 0.1%).

• 3Q26 EPS: Diluted EPS US$7.89, +2.9% YoY from US$7.67, beats US$7.18 consensus by US$0.71 (9.9%). Effective tax rate 13.4% versus 16.9%; lower tax supported the beat.

• 4Q26 Guidance: No standalone numerical Q4 revenue or EPS guidance provided; management expects higher Q4 sales across the portfolio, reflecting throughput, materials and normal seasonality.

• FY26 Guidance: FY2026 sales unchanged US$43.75-44.25bn; segment operating income US$4.94-5.04bn versus US$4.85-5.00bn; MTM-adjusted EPS US$29.35-29.75 versus US$28.60-29.10; adjusted FCF unchanged US$3.1-3.5bn. Initial 2027 sales growth 5-7%, segment margin expansion 10-20bp, adjusted FCF US$3.3-3.7bn.

• Dividend/Share Buyback: Nine-month common-stock repurchases US$68m and dividends US$1.035bn. Latest quarterly dividend US$2.47, paid 16 September 2026. No new repurchase authorisation announced in the earnings release. Adjusted FCF includes US$371m proceeds from equipment sold to a customer during the nine months.

• Comment: We maintain a Positive outlook, with the strongest evidence coming from order intake and the initial 2027 growth framework. A 1.5-times quarterly book-to-bill ratio expands future work faster than current revenue recognition. The resulting backlog offers visibility across aircraft, strategic deterrence and space, making execution the key issue rather than a shortage of customer demand. The earnings beat is less powerful than its headline suggests. EPS increased only modestly year on year, and a lower tax rate supported net earnings. Segment profit grew, but its margin declined against a favourable prior-year programme adjustment. We would therefore avoid extrapolating the consensus surprise into an equivalent acceleration in recurring profitability. The raised segment-profit outlook is constructive because it points to operating progress, while the 2027 sales and margin targets provide a clearer next step. Nevertheless, complex long-duration programmes remain exposed to cost estimates and contract mix. Cash quality also matters: adjusted free cash flow benefits from equipment-sale proceeds, which should be distinguished from routine operating collections. Shares closed at US$534.00 on 20 October, up 4.57%, as investors responded positively to the updated outlook. At approximately 18.1 times the full-year MTM-adjusted EPS midpoint, the valuation appears reasonable if backlog conversion and margin improvement follow. The main risks are programme overruns, funding delays and cash conversion that falls short of reported profit growth. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$502–591. Positive Outlook.

诺斯罗普格鲁曼 (NOC)

• 26财年第三季度营收：第三季营收111.22亿美元，同比增长6.7%，较Seeking Alpha市场预期低499万美元，差距不足0.1%。

• 26财年第三季度每股收益：摊薄每股盈利7.89美元，较上年7.67美元增长2.9%，高于市场预期7.18美元达0.71美元（9.9%）。有效税率由16.9%降至13.4%，较低税率支持盈利超预期。

• 26财年第四季度指引：公司未提供独立的第四季营收或每股盈利数值指引；管理层预计产出、材料投入及正常季节性推动各业务第四季营收上升。

• 26财年全年指引：2026年营收维持437.5亿至442.5亿美元；分部营业利润由48.5亿至50亿美元上调至49.4亿至50.4亿美元；按市值计价调整后每股盈利由28.60至29.10美元上调至29.35至29.75美元；调整后自由现金流维持31亿至35亿美元。初步预计2027年营收增长5%至7%，分部利润率提高10至20个基点，调整后自由现金流33亿至37亿美元。

• 股息与回购：首九个月回购普通股6,800万美元，支付股息10.35亿美元。最近季度股息每股2.47美元，于2026年9月16日支付。本次业绩未公布新回购额度。首九个月调整后自由现金流包含向客户出售设备所得3.71亿美元。

• 短评：我们维持正面展望，最有力依据来自订单及初步2027年增长框架。季度订单收入比达1.5倍，未来工作量增长快于当前营收确认。新增积压订单提高飞机、战略威慑及航天业务可见度，因此关键在执行，而非客户需求不足。 盈利超预期的含金量低于表面幅度。每股盈利同比仅温和增长，较低税率支持净利润。分部利润虽增长，但受上年有利项目调整形成的较高基数影响，利润率下降。因此，不宜将市场预期差直接外推为同等程度的持续盈利加速。 分部利润指引上调具有积极意义，反映经营进展；2027年营收及利润率目标也勾勒更清晰下一步。不过，复杂长期项目仍受成本估计及合同组合影响。现金质量同样重要：调整后自由现金流受益于设备出售收入，应与日常经营回款区分。 投资者对更新后的展望作出积极反应，股价于10月20日收报534.00美元，上涨4.57%。相当于全年按市值计价调整后每股盈利中值约18.1倍；若订单兑现及利润率改善，估值看起来合理。主要风险为项目超支、拨款延误，以及现金转换落后于已报告利润增长。 26财年第四季度建议交易区间：502–591美元。正面前景。

3M Company (MMM)

• 3Q26 Revenue: 3Q26 GAAP sales approximately US$6.6bn, +1.0% YoY; adjusted sales approximately US$6.6bn, +4.2%, with adjusted organic growth 3.3%. Revenue missed consensus by approximately US$10m.

• 3Q26 EPS: Adjusted EPS US$2.50, +12% YoY, beat US$2.38 consensus by US$0.12. GAAP EPS US$2.63, +70%. Adjusted EPS uses the updated amortisation treatment for both comparison periods.

• 4Q26 Guidance: 4Q26 adjusted organic growth expected just above 4%. Numerical quarterly revenue/EPS guidance not provided.

• FY26 Guidance: FY26 adjusted EPS raised to US$9.10–9.15 from US$8.95–9.10 on the same new basis. Adjusted sales growth >4.5% and organic growth >3.5% maintained; operating cash flow approximately US$5.9bn and free cash flow approximately US$4.8bn.

• Dividend/Share Buyback: Quarterly shareholder returns US$0.6bn: dividends US$0.4bn and repurchases US$0.2bn. Quarterly dividend US$0.78/share; YTD dividends US$1.2bn and repurchases US$3.2bn.

• Comment: 3M’s results support a positive outlook, with the earnings upgrade reflecting operational improvement. Adjusted organic growth and margin expansion suggest that productivity and pricing are producing tangible results, rather than relying solely on a stronger industrial cycle. Safety and Industrial remains an important source of growth, while order momentum and backlog support management’s expectation for fourth-quarter organic growth above 4%. The earnings comparison nevertheless requires discipline. The revised adjusted reporting excludes intangible amortisation for both periods, so the new full-year EPS range should be compared with the rebased prior range. On that basis, the midpoint increase is US$0.10, a measured upgrade. GAAP EPS growth is much stronger than adjusted growth and should not be treated as sustainable earnings. Legacy cash obligations also make actual cash conversion an important check on adjusted earnings. Data-centre optical connectivity offers a growth avenue. The Amazon relationship creates a route to commercial adoption, but the cumulative sales milestones span seven years and are not near-term guaranteed revenue. Execution, manufacturing scale and customer adoption will determine the contribution. Meanwhile, inflation, consumer-electronics weakness and legacy litigation remain constraints. Our stance is positive: improving execution and a higher earnings base support accumulation on weakness. We would monitor organic growth and cash conversion before assigning substantial value to the data-centre opportunity. Shares were up 2.4% in premarket trading on 20 October. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$155–183. Positive Outlook.

3M公司 (MMM)

2026年第三季度财报更新 | 截至2026年10月21日

• 26财年第三季度营收：第三季GAAP销售额约66亿美元，同比增长1.0%；调整后销售额约66亿美元，增长4.2%，调整后有机增长3.3%。营收较预期低约1,000万美元。

• 26财年第三季度每股收益：调整后每股收益2.50美元，同比增长12%，高于预期2.38美元，超出0.12美元。GAAP每股收益2.63美元，增长70%；调整后同比数据均采用更新后的摊销处理口径。

• 26财年第四季度指引：预计第四季调整后有机增长略高于4%；未提供季度营收或每股收益数值指引。

• 26财年全年指引：全年调整后每股收益由相同新口径的8.95–9.10美元上调至9.10–9.15美元。维持调整后销售增长逾4.5%、有机增长逾3.5%；预计经营现金流约59亿美元、自由现金流约48亿美元。

• 股息与回购：季度股东回报6亿美元，包括股息4亿美元及回购2亿美元。季度股息每股0.78美元；年内累计股息12亿美元、回购32亿美元。

• 短评：3M业绩支持正面展望，盈利指引上调反映经营持续改善。调整后有机增长及利润率扩大表明，生产力和定价措施正产生实际成效，并非仅依赖工业周期复苏。安全与工业业务仍是重要增长来源，订单及积压订单支持管理层对第四季有机增长超过4%的预期。 不过，盈利比较需保持严谨。新调整后口径对两个期间均剔除无形资产摊销，因此应将新全年每股收益区间与重列后的旧区间比较。同口径中点上调0.10美元，属于有意义但幅度适中的提升。GAAP每股收益增速明显高于调整后增速，不能直接视为可持续盈利轨迹。历史现金义务亦意味着，应以实际现金转化检验调整后盈利表现。 数据中心光连接提供额外增长空间。亚马逊合作为商业应用创造渠道，但累计销售里程碑跨越七年，并非短期保证收入。执行、制造规模和客户采用将决定实际贡献；通胀、消费电子疲弱及历史诉讼仍构成约束。 我们维持正面判断，倾向逢低吸纳。给予数据中心机会较高估值前，应观察有机增长和现金转化。10月20日盘前股价上涨2.4%，属于早期反应，并非收盘变动。 26财年第四季度建议交易区间：155–183美元。正面前景。

Vicor Corporation (VICR)

• 3Q26 Revenue: 3Q26 product and royalty revenue US$197.114m, +78.51% YoY; beat consensus by US$10.09m (approximately US$187.02m expected).

• 3Q26 EPS: GAAP diluted EPS US$1.33 versus US$0.63, +111.1% YoY; beat Seeking Alpha consensus by US$0.09 (US$1.24 expected).

• 4Q26 Guidance: 4Q26 product revenue expected +10% QoQ, with royalty revenue at least US$43m assuming no new licences. This implies approximately US$186.6m total revenue at the baseline; EPS guidance not provided.

• FY26 Guidance: Full-year revenue and EPS guidance not provided. Fab-2 equipment deployment targeted for 2Q27; capacity expansion remains a multi-period programme.

• Dividend/Share Buyback: No dividend or new repurchase announced in reviewed Q3 materials. Cash US$513.1m; quarterly operating cash flow US$69.7m and capex US$16.1m.

• Comment: Vicor’s results support a positive operating outlook, with strong product growth demonstrating that the quarter was not solely a royalty event. Product revenue increased to US$130.5m, while royalty revenue reached US$66.6m. The combination of higher volume, better product mix and licensing income lifted gross margin to 68.3%, creating substantial operating leverage despite rising legal and development expenses. The distinction between recurring and initial royalties is central to earnings quality. Management acknowledged a non-recurring component from a new licensee, so annualising the entire third-quarter royalty stream would overstate the baseline. Its fourth-quarter expectation of at least US$43m provides a more conservative starting point. Product revenue growth of approximately 10% sequentially should partly offset that normalisation, although the resulting baseline total revenue would be below the unusually strong third quarter. Backlog and early-quarter bookings support demand visibility, but capacity remains the practical constraint. New manufacturing sites create room for expansion rather than immediate output, and Fab-2 equipment deployment is targeted for the second quarter of 2027. Execution and customer conversion therefore matter as much as the headline AI opportunity. Legal costs also rise with royalty collections, limiting the margin benefit from licensing. Our stance is positive, favouring selective accumulation rather than extrapolating the peak margin. The cash balance and operating cash generation provide resources to expand internally. Shares closed at US$204.14 on 20 October, up 7.06%, indicating that the market rewarded the stronger growth profile. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$186–239. Positive Outlook.

Vicor公司 (VICR)

• 26财年第三季度营收：第三季产品及特许权收入1.97114亿美元，同比增长78.51%；较预期高1,009万美元（预期约1.8702亿美元）。

• 26财年第三季度每股收益：GAAP摊薄每股收益1.33美元，去年同期0.63美元，同比增长111.1%；较Seeking Alpha市场预期1.24美元高0.09美元。

• 26财年第四季度指引：预计第四季产品收入环比增长10%；假设没有新许可协议，特许权收入至少4,300万美元。据此推算基线总收入约1.866亿美元；未提供每股收益指引。

• 26财年全年指引：未提供全年营收及每股收益指引。Fab-2设备部署目标为2027年第二季；产能扩张需跨多个期间推进。

• 股息与回购：所审阅第三季材料未宣布股息或新回购。现金5.131亿美元；季度经营现金流6,970万美元、资本支出1,610万美元。

• 短评：Vicor业绩支持正面经营展望，强劲产品增长表明本季并非仅由特许权收入推动。产品收入增至1.305亿美元，特许权收入达到6,660万美元。销量、产品组合及许可收入共同推动毛利率升至68.3%，即使法律和研发费用增加，仍形成显著经营杠杆。 持续性与首次特许权收入的区分，是盈利质量的关键。管理层承认新被许可方带来部分非经常收入，因此将第三季全部特许权收入年化，会高估基础水平。第四季至少4,300万美元的预期提供更审慎起点。产品收入环比约10%的增长应部分抵消正常化影响，但推算基线总收入将低于异常强劲的第三季。 积压订单及季初订单支持需求可见度，但产能仍是实际约束。新厂址提供扩张空间，而非即时产出；Fab-2设备部署目标为2027年第二季。因此，执行及客户转化与AI机会同样重要。法律费用亦随特许权收入增加，限制许可业务的利润率提升。 我们维持正面判断，倾向选择性吸纳，避免外推峰值利润率。现金及经营现金流为内部扩张提供资源。10月20日股价收报204.14美元，上涨7.06%，表明市场肯定更强的增长结构。 26财年第四季度建议交易区间：186–239美元。正面前景。

Netflix, Inc. (NFLX)

• 3Q26 Revenue: 3Q26 revenue US$12.874bn, +11.8% YoY, broadly in line with US$12.87bn consensus; F/X-neutral growth approximately 11%.

• 3Q26 EPS: GAAP diluted EPS US$0.87 versus US$0.59, +49% YoY as reported by Netflix; beat US$0.82 consensus by US$0.05. All per-share figures are split-adjusted.

• 4Q26 Guidance: 4Q26 revenue US$13.442bn, EPS US$0.67 and operating margin 26.0%, including approximately 120bp headcount-reduction impact. Newly issued outlook; revenue/EPS below approximately US$13.51bn/US$0.73 consensus.

• FY26 Guidance: FY26 revenue US$51.1bn versus prior US$51.0–51.4bn; operating margin 31.5% unchanged. Ad revenue reduced to approximately US$2.7bn from US$3bn; free cash flow approximately US$12bn versus US$12.5bn, partly reflecting a planned property transaction.

• Dividend/Share Buyback: Q3 share repurchases approximately US$4.8bn; approximately US$22.3bn authorisation remaining. No dividend declared in reviewed results.

• Comment: Netflix’s earnings beat is overshadowed by a weaker fourth-quarter outlook, leaving our near-term stance negative. Subscription growth and pricing continue to support revenue, but the reduced advertising target shows that a key incremental monetisation engine is developing more slowly than expected. The issue is the timing of advertising product capabilities, rather than evidence that subscriptions have stalled, yet the delay reduces confidence in near-term acceleration. The third-quarter margin also needs context. Operating income and margin exceeded Netflix’s own forecast partly because of expense timing. That benefit should not be extrapolated into the fourth quarter, when restructuring costs weigh on profitability. The 26% margin forecast includes a headcount-reduction charge, but even allowing for that item, the softer revenue and EPS outlook limits the immediate upgrade case. Cash generation and repurchases remain important supports. However, the lower annual free-cash-flow target means investors should separate operating progress from the planned property transaction and avoid treating all cash-flow movements as changes in subscription economics. Buybacks can improve per-share growth, but cannot replace a stronger revenue trajectory. All per-share comparisons here use the split-adjusted share basis. Our call is to wait for clearer advertising execution and revenue stabilisation before adding exposure. Netflix retains scale and monetisation opportunities, but the quarter offers insufficient evidence of renewed growth acceleration. Shares fell approximately 4.1% to US$65.90 in early after-hours trading on 20 October. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$63–77. Negative Outlook.

奈飞 (NFLX)

• 26财年第三季度营收：第三季营收128.74亿美元，同比增长11.8%，与市场预期约128.7亿美元基本一致；汇率中性增速约11%。

• 26财年第三季度每股收益：GAAP摊薄每股收益0.87美元，去年同期0.59美元，公司报告同比增长49%；高于预期0.82美元，超出0.05美元。所有每股数据已调整拆股影响。

• 26财年第四季度指引：新发布第四季营收134.42亿美元、每股收益0.67美元、经营利润率26.0%，包含裁员约120个基点影响；营收及每股收益低于预期约135.1亿美元及0.73美元。

• 26财年全年指引：全年营收511亿美元，原为510–514亿美元；经营利润率31.5%不变。广告收入由约30亿美元降至27亿美元；自由现金流由125亿美元降至约120亿美元，部分反映计划房地产交易。

• 股息与回购：第三季回购约48亿美元，剩余授权约223亿美元。所审阅业绩未宣派股息。

• 短评：奈飞每股收益超预期，但较弱第四季展望更为关键，因此我们维持短期负面判断。订阅增长及定价继续支持收入，不过广告目标下调表明，重要的增量变现引擎推进慢于预期。问题来自广告产品功能推出时点，而非订阅停滞的证据，但延迟仍削弱短期加速信心。 第三季利润率亦需结合背景。经营利润及利润率超过公司自身预测，部分来自费用时点，不能直接外推至第四季，届时重组成本将影响盈利。26%的利润率预测包含裁员费用，但即使考虑该项目，较弱营收和每股收益展望仍限制即时上调空间。 现金创造及回购仍是重要支撑。不过，全年自由现金流目标降低，意味着应区分经营进展与计划房地产交易，避免将所有现金流变化都视为订阅经济性改变。回购能提升每股增长，但不能替代更强营收趋势。这里所有每股比较均采用拆股后口径。 我们倾向等待广告执行及营收稳定的更明确信号后再增持。奈飞仍具规模和变现机会，但本季不足以证明增长重新加速。10月20日早段盘后股价下跌约4.1%至65.90美元，并非正常交易时段收盘变动。 26财年第四季度建议交易区间：63–77美元。负面前景。

Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) (SPCX)

• 3Q26 Revenue: 3Q26 revenue US$14.575bn, +161.4% YoY; exceeded approximately US$13.0bn consensus by US$1.6bn.

• 3Q26 EPS: GAAP diluted EPS US$0.35 versus a US$0.36 loss a year earlier; beat Seeking Alpha consensus US$0.16 by US$0.19. Percentage growth is not meaningful from a loss.

• 4Q26 Guidance: 4Q26 capital expenditure US$35–40bn and year-end nameplate compute 2.5–3GW. Gross margin expected closer to 2Q26 after Q3 one-time benefits; numerical Q4 revenue/EPS guidance not provided.

• FY26 Guidance: No numerical FY26 revenue/EPS guidance provided. December annualised revenue goal US$100bn reaffirmed; new 1Q27 revenue guidance US$33–37bn. December run-rate goal is not annual recognised revenue.

• Dividend/Share Buyback: No dividend or buyback announced in reviewed results. Q3 capex US$19.593bn; cash and marketable securities US$89.855bn at September-end. YTD operating cash flow US$13.097bn versus capex US$48.069bn.

• Comment: SpaceX’s results demonstrate a sharp operating inflection, but our investment stance remains neutral because the capital requirements and earnings composition demand caution. Super Intelligence generated more than half of revenue, while Connectivity continued to expand rapidly. Starlink’s growing subscriber base and cloud-compute contracts diversify the business beyond launches, creating a much larger potential revenue pool. The headline net profit overstates the contribution from current operations. Operating income was US$2.8bn, compared with US$4.4bn net income, with other income, net interest and a tax benefit contributing below the operating line. Connectivity also benefited from tariff refunds, and management expects fourth-quarter gross margins to resemble the second quarter more closely. These items matter when assessing whether the reported EPS can recur. Capital intensity remains the decisive issue. Third-quarter expenditure exceeded revenue, and the fourth-quarter plan rises further as compute infrastructure is deployed. The substantial liquidity balance provides runway, but shareholders still need evidence that utilisation, contracted revenue and cash returns justify the investment. Adjusted EBITDA is useful for tracking activity, yet excludes major economic costs and should not be equated with free cash flow. Our call is neutral despite the impressive growth. The new first-quarter revenue outlook provides a measurable milestone, whereas long-range aspirations require continued verification. Shares rose 1.5% in extended trading on 20 October. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$135–180. Neutral Outlook.

SpaceX（太空探索技术公司） (SPCX)

• 26财年第三季度营收：第三季营收145.75亿美元，同比增长161.4%；较约130亿美元市场预期高约16亿美元。

• 26财年第三季度每股收益：GAAP摊薄每股收益0.35美元，去年同期亏损0.36美元；高于Seeking Alpha预期0.16美元，超出0.19美元。由亏转盈不宜计算百分比增速。

• 26财年第四季度指引：第四季资本支出350–400亿美元，年末名义算力2.5–3GW。第三季一次性利好消退后，毛利率预计更接近第二季；未提供第四季营收或每股收益数值指引。

• 26财年全年指引：未提供全年营收或每股收益数值指引。重申12月年化营收目标1,000亿美元，并新增2027年第一季营收330–370亿美元指引；12月运行率不等于全年确认收入。

• 股息与回购：所审阅业绩未宣布股息或回购。第三季资本支出195.93亿美元；9月底现金及有价证券898.55亿美元。年内经营现金流130.97亿美元，资本支出480.69亿美元。

• 短评：SpaceX业绩显示经营明显转折，但资本需求及盈利构成仍需审慎，因此我们维持中性投资判断。超级智能业务贡献超过一半营收，连接业务继续快速扩张。Starlink用户增长及云计算合同使业务不再仅依赖发射，扩大潜在收入空间。 净利润标题数字高于当期经营贡献。经营利润28亿美元，净利润44亿美元，其他收入、净利息及税项收益在经营线以下贡献盈利。连接业务亦受益于关税退款，管理层预计第四季毛利率将更接近第二季。这些项目直接影响报告每股收益能否重复。 资本密集度仍是决定性问题。第三季支出高于营收，而第四季计划随计算基础设施部署进一步提高。充裕流动性提供时间，但股东仍需看到利用率、合同收入及现金回报能够证明投资合理。调整后EBITDA有助追踪业务，却剔除了重大经济成本，不能等同自由现金流。 尽管增长亮眼，我们维持中性。新增第一季营收展望提供可衡量里程碑，长期愿景则需持续验证。Seeking Alpha最初报道显示，10月20日盘后股价上涨1.5%；属于早段盘后快照，并非收盘回报。 26财年第四季度建议交易区间：135–180美元。中性前景。

Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (ISRG)

• 3Q26 Revenue: US$3.05bn, +22% YoY; above approximately US$2.91bn consensus by US$140m.

• 3Q26 EPS: Non-GAAP diluted EPS US$3.00, +25% YoY, beat US$2.65 consensus by US$0.35. GAAP EPS US$1.49, down 23.6%, includes US$0.99/share antitrust settlement charge.

• 4Q26 Guidance: No numerical Q4 revenue or EPS guidance provided.

• FY26 Guidance: FY2026 da Vinci procedure growth narrowed to 14–15% from 13.5–15.5%, near midpoint. Non-GAAP gross margin raised to 68.7–69.3% from 68–69%; operating expense growth unchanged at 11–13%. No FY revenue/EPS guidance.

• Dividend/Share Buyback: Repurchased 7.8m shares for US$2.94bn in Q3; cash, equivalents and investments US$6.80bn. No dividend announced.

• Comment: Intuitive delivered a clear operating beat, with the distinction between recurring growth and exceptional charges central to interpreting the quarter. Revenue rose 22% to US$3.05bn and adjusted EPS increased 25% to US$3.00. GAAP EPS fell to US$1.49 because of the antitrust settlement. Adjusted EPS also included a US$0.06 tariff-refund benefit, so the full reported increase should not be treated as recurring earnings momentum. The franchise remains healthy. Worldwide procedures grew 15%, including 14% for da Vinci and 31% for Ion. Instruments and accessories revenue increased 18%, linking the revenue base to ongoing usage rather than equipment placements alone. Da Vinci placements reached 546, including 315 da Vinci 5 systems, while the installed base expanded 12%. Leasing extends access to customers and creates continuing revenue opportunities, although it also changes the timing of cash recovery. Management narrowed annual procedure growth around the same midpoint and lifted the gross-margin outlook while keeping operating-expense growth unchanged. This supports profitability without requiring an acceleration in procedures. However, the settlement remains subject to court approval, and the large buyback reduced the cash reserve. Shares traded at US$408 after hours at 7:59pm ET on 20 October, down 6.85% from the US$438 pre-release close. Our outlook is positive on recurring adoption, while sustained upside requires procedure growth and margin delivery rather than exceptional benefits. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$385–445. Positive Outlook.

直觉外科 (ISRG)

• 26财年第三季度营收：收入30.5亿美元，同比增22%，较约29.1亿美元预期高约1.4亿美元。

• 26财年第三季度每股收益：非GAAP摊薄每股盈利3.00美元，同比增25%，较2.65美元预期高0.35美元。GAAP每股盈利1.49美元，同比降23.6%，包含每股0.99美元反垄断和解费用。

• 26财年第四季度指引：未提供第四季度收入或每股盈利量化指引。

• 26财年全年指引：2026年达芬奇手术增长指引由13.5–15.5%收窄至14–15%，预计接近中点；非GAAP毛利率由68–69%提高至68.7–69.3%；经营费用增长11–13%不变。未提供全年收入或每股盈利指引。

• 股息与回购：第三季度以29.4亿美元回购780万股；现金、现金等价物及投资68亿美元。未宣布股息。

• 短评：直觉外科核心经营表现明显超预期，但解读业绩时需区分持续增长与特殊项目。收入增长22%至30.5亿美元，经调整每股盈利增长25%至3.00美元。GAAP每股盈利受反垄断和解费用影响降至1.49美元。经调整盈利亦包含每股0.06美元关税退款，因此不能将全部增幅视为可持续盈利动能。 业务基础仍然健康。全球手术量增长15%，其中达芬奇增长14%，Ion增长31%。器械及配件收入增长18%，使收入与持续使用量挂钩，而非仅依赖设备投放。达芬奇投放量达546台，其中315台为达芬奇5，安装基数增长12%。租赁模式扩大客户可及性并创造持续收入机会，但亦改变现金回收时点。 管理层围绕原中点收窄全年手术增长指引，并提高毛利率预期，经营费用增长指引不变，意味着盈利改善无需依赖手术增速进一步加快。不过，和解仍须法院批准，大额回购亦降低现金储备。10月20日美东时间晚上7时59分，盘后股价408美元，较业绩发布前438美元收盘价下跌6.85%。我们看好持续采用趋势，维持正面展望，持续上行需由手术增长及利润率兑现支持，而非特殊收益。 26财年第四季度建议交易区间：385–445美元。正面前景。

United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL)

• 3Q26 Revenue: US$17.88bn, +17.4% YoY; missed consensus by US$30m.

• 3Q26 EPS: Adjusted diluted EPS US$2.54, down 8.6% YoY from US$2.78; missed US$2.57 consensus by US$0.03. GAAP EPS US$3.14, up 8.3% from US$2.90.

• 4Q26 Guidance: New Q4 adjusted EPS US$0.50–1.50, assuming fuel about US$4.80/gallon. Revenue growth above 20% YoY; unit-revenue growth accelerates and non-fuel unit-cost growth moderates versus Q3. No prior numerical Q4 EPS range identified.

• FY26 Guidance: The October update does not reaffirm July’s FY26 adjusted EPS range of US$9–11. FY26 adjusted capex is approximately US$7.5B; no new full-year EPS target was provided.

• Dividend/Share Buyback: Q3-end liquidity US$17.7bn; debt, finance leases and other financial liabilities US$26.4bn; net leverage 2.4x. Nine-month buybacks US$27m, unchanged from first half, implying no Q3 buybacks. No dividend announced.

• Comment: United’s revenue momentum is strong, but rising fuel costs prevent that strength from translating into better earnings. Third-quarter revenue increased 17.4% to US$17.88bn, while adjusted EPS declined 8.6% to US$2.54 and narrowly missed expectations. The distinction matters: GAAP EPS increased to US$3.14, supported by special items including aircraft sale-leaseback gains. Adjusted results provide a clearer picture of underlying airline profitability. Demand is not the main weakness. Capacity increased only 1.3%, while unit revenue rose 15.9%, showing that pricing and mix carried most of the revenue improvement. Premium and loyalty revenue each increased 17%, and contracted business revenue rose 26%. However, fuel expense increased 62%, or US$1.8bn, and non-fuel unit costs rose 7.8%. The adjusted pretax margin was only 6.2%, despite record revenue. The new fourth-quarter EPS range of US$0.50–1.50 reflects the difficulty of recovering volatile fuel costs immediately. Management expects revenue growth above 20%, but assumes fuel at US$4.80 per gallon. The company says the gap versus consensus fuel assumptions represents roughly US$1 of quarterly EPS, making fuel the decisive near-term variable. Liquidity remains meaningful, though fleet spending and leverage constrain flexibility. Shares were US$96.80 at 7:59pm ET on 20 October, down 0.99% after hours; the US$97.77 close preceded earnings. Our outlook is negative near term, until fuel stabilises or fare recovery improves. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$85–102. Negative Outlook.

联合航空 (UAL)

• 26财年第三季度营收：收入178.8亿美元，同比增17.4%，较预期低3,000万美元。

• 26财年第三季度每股收益：经调整摊薄每股盈利2.54美元，较去年2.78美元下降8.6%，较2.57美元预期低0.03美元。GAAP每股盈利3.14美元，较去年2.90美元增长8.3%。

• 26财年第四季度指引：新第四季度经调整每股盈利指引0.50–1.50美元，假设燃油约每加仑4.80美元。收入同比增逾20%；单位收入增速加快，非燃油单位成本增速较第三季度放缓。未发现此前第四季度量化盈利区间。

• 26财年全年指引：10月更新未重申7月全年调整后每股收益9–11美元区间，亦未提供新的全年盈利目标。全年调整后资本开支约75亿美元。

• 股息与回购：季末流动性177亿美元；债务、融资租赁及其他金融负债264亿美元；净杠杆2.4倍。前九个月回购2,700万美元，与上半年相同，意味着第三季度无回购。未宣布股息。

• 短评：联合航空收入动能强劲，但燃油成本上升阻碍收入增长转化为更高盈利。第三季度收入增长17.4%至178.8亿美元，经调整每股盈利却下降8.6%至2.54美元，略低于预期。GAAP每股盈利上升至3.14美元，受到飞机售后回租收益等特殊项目支持，因此经调整表现更能反映航空业务基础盈利能力。 需求并非主要弱点。运力仅增加1.3%，单位收入却增长15.9%，显示定价及收入组合贡献大部分增长。高端客舱和忠诚计划收入各增17%，合约商务收入增长26%。不过，燃油费用增长62%，增加18亿美元；非燃油单位成本上升7.8%。即使收入创新高，经调整税前利润率仍仅为6.2%。 新第四季度每股盈利区间0.50–1.50美元，反映短期回收波动燃油成本的困难。管理层预计收入增长逾20%，但燃油假设为每加仑4.80美元。公司指出，其燃油假设与市场预期的差距相当于约每股1美元季度盈利，使燃油成为短期关键变量。流动性仍具规模，但机队支出及杠杆限制财务灵活性。10月20日美东时间晚上7时59分，盘后股价96.80美元，下跌0.99%；此前97.77美元收盘价形成于业绩发布前。我们短期展望负面，直至燃油稳定或票价回收改善。 26财年第四季度建议交易区间：85–102美元。负面前景。

Chubb Limited (CB)

• 3Q26 Revenue: Adjusted revenue US$16.81bn, +4.2% YoY, versus US$16.72bn consensus (about US$90m beat). Consolidated net premiums written US$15.143bn, +1.9% YoY.

• 3Q26 EPS: Core operating EPS US$7.66, +0.8% YoY versus restated US$7.60; above US$6.79 consensus by US$0.87. GAAP EPS US$7.30, +4.4%. Core results now exclude selected purchased-intangible amortisation; prior period restated.

• 4Q26 Guidance: The company did not provide numerical Q4 revenue or EPS guidance in the earnings release.

• FY26 Guidance: No numerical FY2026 revenue or EPS guidance provided or revised in the release.

• Dividend/Share Buyback: Q3 returned US$1.57bn: US$1.18bn buybacks at average US$344.32/share and US$393m dividends. Book value US$191.43/share; tangible book US$126.96/share.

• Comment: Chubb’s earnings beat confirms a profitable franchise, but the underlying growth rate is more restrained than the headline surprise suggests. Core operating EPS reached US$7.66, above consensus, while increasing only 0.8% against the restated prior year. Total core operating income declined 2.2%, meaning a lower share count helped preserve per-share growth. The newly revised core definition excludes selected intangible amortisation; the restated comparison is therefore essential to judging performance consistently. Underwriting remains strong despite a less favourable catastrophe comparison. The P&C combined ratio was 84.1%, compared with 81.8% a year earlier, while the current-accident-year ratio excluding catastrophes was broadly stable at 82.6%. This suggests the business remains well underwritten, but the unusually benign prior catastrophe quarter creates a difficult comparison. Consolidated premiums written grew only 1.9%, so further earnings expansion cannot rely on rapid volume growth alone. Record investment income provides a useful second earnings engine. Capital returns remain substantial, with US$1.18bn of quarterly repurchases and US$393m in dividends. However, investment-portfolio valuation losses weighed on book value, illustrating the difference between stronger investment income and near-term balance-sheet marks. No numerical earnings guidance accompanied the release. Shares were US$356 at 7:59pm ET on 20 October, down 0.49% after hours, following a US$357.75 pre-release close. Our outlook is neutral: operating quality supports the valuation, but modest premiums and buyback-supported EPS leave limited evidence of acceleration. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$325–375. Neutral Outlook.

安达保险 (CB)

• 26财年第三季度营收：经调整收入168.1亿美元，同比增4.2%，较167.2亿美元预期高约9,000万美元。综合净签单保费151.43亿美元，同比增1.9%。

• 26财年第三季度每股收益：核心经营每股盈利7.66美元，较重列后的去年7.60美元增长0.8%，较6.79美元预期高0.87美元。GAAP每股盈利7.30美元，增4.4%。核心口径现剔除部分购入无形资产摊销，去年数据已重列。

• 26财年第四季度指引：公司未在财报中提供第四季度营收或每股收益量化指引。

• 26财年全年指引：公告未提供或修订2026年全年收入或每股盈利量化指引。

• 股息与回购：第三季度返还股东15.7亿美元，包括以均价344.32美元回购11.8亿美元股份及3.93亿美元股息。每股账面价值191.43美元，有形账面价值126.96美元。

• 短评：安达盈利超预期体现业务盈利能力，但基础增速较表面惊喜温和。核心经营每股盈利7.66美元高于预期，却仅较重列后的去年增长0.8%。核心经营利润总额下降2.2%，说明股数减少支持每股盈利增长。新核心口径剔除部分无形资产摊销，因此须采用重列同比数据，才能一致评估表现。 虽然巨灾同比基数不利，承保仍然稳健。财险综合成本率为84.1%，去年为81.8%；剔除巨灾的当期事故年度成本率基本稳定于82.6%。这显示承保质量仍佳，但去年异常轻微的巨灾损失构成较高比较基数。综合净签单保费仅增长1.9%，未来盈利扩张不能单靠保费规模快速增长。创纪录投资收益提供第二项盈利动力。 资本回报仍可观，季度回购11.8亿美元并派息3.93亿美元。不过，投资组合估值亏损拖累账面价值，反映投资收益改善与短期资产估值之间的区别。公告未提供量化盈利指引。10月20日美东时间晚上7时59分，盘后股价356美元，下跌0.49%，此前业绩发布前收盘价为357.75美元。我们展望中性：经营质量支持估值，但保费增长温和，每股盈利又受回购支持，仍缺乏增长加速证据。 26财年第四季度建议交易区间：325–375美元。中性前景。