Technical Analysis: 15 October 2026

ASML Holding N.V. (ASML)

• 3Q26 Revenue: €11.66B, +55.2% YoY, beat estimates by €82M.

• 3Q26 EPS: €12.95 US GAAP basic EPS, +135.9% YoY, beat estimates by €2.27.

• 4Q26 Guidance: Net sales of €14.2–15.2B, gross margin around 57%, R&D approximately €1.2B and SG&A approximately €0.4B. Installed Base Management sales around €3.7B. The company did not provide quarterly EPS guidance.

• FY26 Guidance: Raised net sales guidance to €44–45B from €43–45B and gross margin to around 56% from 54–56%. No full-year EPS guidance or numerical FY27 revenue guidance was provided.

• Dividend/Share Buyback: Repurchased approximately €4.1B of shares during 3Q26. Second interim dividend of €1.88/share payable 4 November 2026. Operating cash flow was €11.80B and free cash flow approximately €11.4B, supported by customer downpayments.

• Comment: We remain positive on ASML's medium-term earnings direction but favour accumulating on weakness after a strong valuation expansion. The third-quarter result demonstrates the power of its installed base: productivity upgrades lifted service revenue above management's expectation and helped gross margin exceed the guided range. This is a useful way to monetise customers' urgent need for wafer capacity while new-system supply remains constrained. Earnings quality needs a closer look. Basic EPS of €12.95 includes the Mistral AI valuation gain. Removing it using the quarter’s tax rate gives approximately €11.83 per share, still above the €10.68 euro consensus. Customer downpayments also materially supported cash generation. These benefits should not be extrapolated as recurring operating income. Management's demand commentary is more important than the modest revenue beat. Planned supply for 2027 and 2028 is now insufficient to meet customers' expected requirements, and ASML is studying additional capacity. That supports a multi-year growth opportunity, but also makes supplier execution and delivery timing the limiting factors. Interest in later-year equipment orders is encouraging visibility rather than revenue already earned. The full-year sales outlook lifts only the lower end, and no numerical 2027 revenue guide was issued. This helps explain why a strong report need not trigger a further re-rating. The Nasdaq-listed shares closed at US$1,650 on 14 October, down 3.94%, during a broader technology selloff. Upside depends on delivery execution and sustained AI investment; export restrictions and stretched expectations remain the main downside risks. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$1,600–1,850. Positive Outlook.

阿斯麦 (ASML)

• 26财年第三季度营收：116.6亿欧元，同比增长55.2%，超出预期8,200万欧元。

• 26财年第三季度每股收益：美国公认会计准则基本每股收益12.95欧元，同比增长135.9%，超出预期2.27欧元。

• 26财年第四季度指引：预计净销售额142–152亿欧元，毛利率约57%，研发支出约12亿欧元，销售及管理费用约4亿欧元；装机基础管理业务销售额约37亿欧元。公司未提供季度每股收益指引。

• 26财年全年指引：全年净销售额由430–450亿欧元上调至440–450亿欧元，毛利率由54%–56%上调至约56%。公司未提供全年每股收益或27财年数值营收指引。

• 股息与回购：第三季度回购约41亿欧元股票。第二次中期股息为每股1.88欧元，于2026年11月4日支付。经营现金流为118.0亿欧元，自由现金流约114亿欧元，受客户预付款支持。

• 短评：我们对ASML中期盈利方向保持正面判断，但经历估值扩张后，更适合逢低吸纳。第三季度体现了装机基础的盈利能力：生产力升级推动服务收入超出管理层预期，并使毛利率高于指引区间。在新设备供应受限时，这有助于将客户迫切的产能需求转化为收入。盈利质量仍需关注。基本每股收益12.95欧元包含Mistral AI估值收益；按本季度税率机械剔除后，约为11.83欧元，仍高于10.68欧元的欧元口径共识。客户预付款也显著支持现金流，不宜将这些因素视为可重复的经营收益。管理层的需求判断比小幅营收超预期更重要：2027年和2028年计划供应已不足以满足客户预计需求，公司正研究进一步扩产。这支持多年增长机会，但也使供应商执行及交付时间成为制约。远期设备订单兴趣增强，代表可见度，而非已经实现的收入。全年销售指引仅上调下限，公司未提供2027年数值营收展望，因此强劲财报未必立即带来进一步估值提升。10月14日纳斯达克上市股票收于1,650美元，下跌3.94%，当日科技股整体走弱。上行空间取决于交付及AI投资持续，出口限制和较高预期则是主要下行风险。 26财年第四季度建议交易区间：1,600–1,850美元。正面前景。

Bank of America Corporation (BAC)

• 3Q26 Revenue: US$29.96B, +3.2% YoY, missed estimates by US$662.45M.

• 3Q26 EPS: US$1.08 adjusted, +3.8% YoY, missed estimates by US$0.02.

• 4Q26 Guidance: 4Q26: NII expected to improve sequentially and operating leverage expected to resume. No numerical quarterly NII, EPS or total-revenue guidance provided in the reviewed materials and call commentary.

• FY26 Guidance: 2026 NII growth of approximately 8% maintained; management said the outlook had already been raised during 2026 from 5–7% to 7%, then approximately 8%. No full-year EPS or total-revenue guidance provided. Initial 2027 NII growth outlook is 8% or more, assuming three 25bp rate increases through June 2027.

• Dividend/Share Buyback: Returned $8.3bn to shareholders, including $6.0bn common-share buybacks and $2.2bn common dividends (rounded). Quarterly dividend paid $0.32/share, up 14.3% from $0.28 in 2Q26. CET1 ratio 10.9%, versus 11.2% in June; tangible book value $29.14/share.

• Comment: Bank of America's third-quarter miss reflects more than its regulatory charge, making a near-term recovery dependent on better operating execution. Revenue increased 3% to $29.96bn, but missed consensus by approximately $662m. Adjusted EPS of $1.08 also fell short of the $1.10 forecast. The $1.2bn non-tax-deductible settlement reduced reported EPS to $0.91, yet excluding it does not remove the underlying earnings disappointment. Adjusted profit of approximately $8.1bn remained below the prior year's $8.3bn, while buybacks supported per-share earnings. The banking franchise remains resilient. Net interest income increased 8%, average loans grew 6%, and net interest yield expanded 15 basis points to 2.16%. Wealth revenue rose 13% as asset-management fees benefited from markets and flows. These gains were offset by weaker capital-markets activity: FICC revenue fell 17% and investment-banking fees declined 11%. Adjusted expenses increased almost 7%, faster than revenue, showing that the settlement alone does not explain weaker profitability. Credit remained comparatively stable, with the net charge-off ratio improving to 0.44%. Management maintained approximately 8% annual NII growth and expects sequential improvement and renewed operating leverage in Q4. However, remediation demands and CET1 declining to 10.9% merit attention alongside continued buybacks. Shares closed 14 October at $51.39, down 4.76%. Our stance is neutral: higher interest income supports the franchise, but sustainable upside requires fee recovery and expense growth moving below revenue growth. Stronger operating leverage would support a recovery, while persistent fee weakness would prolong the pressure on valuation. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$47–55. Neutral Outlook.

美国银行 (BAC)

• 26财年第三季度营收：299.6亿美元，同比增长3.2%，低于预期6.6245亿美元。

• 26财年第三季度每股收益：调整后每股收益1.08美元，同比增长3.8%，低于预期0.02美元。

• 26财年第四季度指引：预计净利息收入环比改善，并恢复正经营杠杆。公司未提供季度净利息收入、每股收益或总营收的数值指引。

• 26财年全年指引：维持净利息收入增长约8%的展望；年内曾由5%–7%上调至7%，再上调至约8%。公司未提供全年每股收益或总营收指引。2027年净利息收入初步预计增长至少8%，假设截至2027年6月有三次25个基点加息。

• 股息与回购：本季度向股东返还约83亿美元，包括60亿美元普通股回购和约22亿美元普通股股息，数字经四舍五入。季度每股股息由0.28美元增至0.32美元，增长14.3%。CET1为10.9%，低于6月的11.2%；每股有形净资产为29.14美元。

• 短评：美国银行第三季度不及预期并非仅由监管费用造成，短期修复仍取决于经营执行。营收增长3%至299.6亿美元，但低于共识约6.62亿美元；调整后EPS为1.08美元，也低于1.10美元预期。12亿美元不可抵税和解费用使报告EPS降至0.91美元，但剔除该项仍不能消除盈利疲弱。调整后利润约81亿美元，低于去年的83亿美元，回购则支撑每股收益。核心银行业务仍具韧性：净利息收入增长8%，平均贷款增长6%，净利息收益率扩张15个基点至2.16%。财富业务营收增长13%，受益于市场及资金流。但固定收益、外汇及商品收入下降17%，投行费用下降11%，抵消部分增长。调整后费用增长接近7%，快于营收，说明盈利压力并非全部来自和解。信贷相对稳定，净核销率改善至0.44%。管理层维持全年净利息收入增长约8%，预计第四季度环比改善及正经营杠杆恢复。不过，补救整改及CET1降至10.9%，需要与持续回购一并关注。10月14日股价收于51.39美元，下跌4.76%。我们维持中性：利息收入支撑业务，但持续上行需要手续费恢复及费用增速低于营收。经营杠杆改善有助于修复估值，手续费持续疲弱则会延长压力。 26财年第四季度建议交易区间：47–55美元。中性前景。

Morgan Stanley (MS)

• 3Q26 Revenue: US$20.34B, +11.6% YoY, beat estimates by approximately US$408M.

• 3Q26 EPS: US$3.03 GAAP diluted EPS, +8.2% YoY, beat estimates by US$0.10.

• 4Q26 Guidance: 4Q26 revenue and EPS guidance not provided. Management expects Wealth Management NII to increase modestly from 3Q26, subject to rates and client behaviour. Tax rate expected slightly above 3Q26’s 23.3%.

• FY26 Guidance: FY26 revenue and EPS guidance not provided. Full-year tax guidance remains unchanged; no new numerical range specified in the reviewed call passage.

• Dividend/Share Buyback: Repurchased US$1.540bn common shares. Dividend US$1.15/share payable 13 November 2026, record date 30 October. Standardised CET1 14.9%; ROTCE 22.6%; tangible book value US$53.96/share.

• Comment: Morgan Stanley’s earnings beat supports a constructive view, with Wealth Management providing the clearest foundation for continued growth. Record revenue of US$9.1bn and a 30.4% pretax margin show that the business can translate asset growth into earnings while funding investment. The more important forward indicator is US$80.5bn of fee-based flows, which should expand the recurring fee base. Record net new assets of US$232.4bn strengthen the client funnel, although just over half came from IPO-related flows and should not be extrapolated as a normal quarterly run rate. Institutional Securities remained strong but uneven. Equity revenue rose 41%, benefiting from broad client engagement, while fixed income declined 7% and investment-banking revenue grew only 2%. The mix reinforces Morgan Stanley’s equity franchise advantage, but also highlights sensitivity to market activity. Investment Management was weaker, with carried-interest reversals offsetting growth in management fees. Consequently, the earnings beat does not signal uniformly stronger performance across all businesses. Profit quality is supported by higher operating revenues rather than a lower tax rate: the effective tax rate increased from a year earlier, while credit provisions also rose. However, revenue fell 5% sequentially and ROTCE moderated from 26.6% to 22.6%, tempering expectations after a strong first half. Our call is to accumulate on weakness, supported by fee-based asset growth, prospective NII improvement and capital returns, while monitoring whether September’s softer activity persists. Shares closed at US$181.65 on 14 October, down 2.68%, indicating that the beat alone did not sustain buying interest. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$177–203. Positive Outlook.

摩根士丹利 (MS)

• 26财年第三季度营收：203.4亿美元，同比增长11.6%，超出预期约4.08亿美元。

• 26财年第三季度每股收益：公认会计准则摊薄每股收益3.03美元，同比增长8.2%，超出预期0.10美元。

• 26财年第四季度指引：公司未提供第四季度营收或每股收益指引。管理层预计财富管理净利息收入较第三季度小幅增加，取决于利率及客户行为；税率略高于第三季度的23.3%。

• 26财年全年指引：公司未提供全年营收或每股收益指引。全年税率展望维持不变，本次讨论未给出新的数值区间。

• 股息与回购：本季度回购15.40亿美元普通股。每股1.15美元股息将于11月13日支付，登记日为10月30日。标准化CET1为14.9%，有形普通股权益回报率为22.6%，每股有形净资产为53.96美元。

• 短评：摩根士丹利盈利超预期支持正面判断，财富管理提供最明确的持续增长基础。该业务创纪录营收91亿美元、税前利润率30.4%，显示资产增长能够在持续投资的同时转化为盈利。更重要的前瞻指标是805亿美元收费资产流入，有助于扩大经常性收费基础。创纪录2,324亿美元净新增资产增强客户基础，但其中略多于一半来自IPO相关资金，不宜视为正常单季水平。机构证券表现仍强但分化：股票业务收入增长41%，固定收益下降7%，投行收入仅增长2%。这体现股票业务优势，也显示市场活动敏感性。投资管理较弱，业绩报酬回拨抵消管理费增长，因此盈利超预期并不代表各业务同步改善。盈利质量主要受更高经营收入支持，而非较低税率：有效税率同比上升，信贷拨备也增加。不过，总营收环比下降5%，有形普通股权益回报率由26.6%回落至22.6%，在强劲上半年后仍需控制预期。我们的判断是逢低吸纳，收费资产增长、预期净利息收入改善及资本回报提供支撑，同时关注9月活动放缓是否延续。10月14日股价收于181.65美元，下跌2.68%，表明单纯超预期未能维持买盘。 26财年第四季度建议交易区间：177–203美元。正面前景。

BlackRock, Inc. (BLK)

• 3Q26 Revenue: US$7.75B, +19.1% YoY, beat estimates by US$323.89M.

• 3Q26 EPS: US$15.93 adjusted, +38% YoY, beat estimates by US$1.63.

• 4Q26 Guidance: The company did not provide 4Q26 revenue or EPS guidance. Management expects an approximately 25% tax rate and plans at least US$550M of share repurchases.

• FY26 Guidance: The company did not provide FY26 revenue or EPS guidance. Full-year general and administrative expenses are expected to increase by a mid-single-digit percentage. Management remains committed to low- to mid-teens technology annual contract value growth over the long term.

• Dividend/Share Buyback: Repurchased US$550M of shares in 3Q26, up from US$450M in 2Q26. The quarterly dividend remains US$5.73/share. Management plans at least US$550M of 4Q26 repurchases.

• Comment: This was a strong operating quarter, with organic growth and margin expansion supporting a positive outlook. Net inflows of US$205B lifted assets under management to US$15.49T, while annualised organic base fee growth reached 11%. The breadth across ETFs, systematic equities, private markets and cash suggests that growth is broader than a passive benefit from rising equity prices. Base fees and securities lending revenue increased 20%, strengthening the recurring earnings base. Technology services and subscription revenue rose 14% to US$588M, with annual contract value up 12%. These revenues add diversification and can support a higher-quality earnings mix as Aladdin and multi-product solutions expand. Adjusted operating income increased 27%, faster than revenue, and the operating margin rose 320 basis points to 47.8%, demonstrating cost discipline despite continued investment. The 38% adjusted EPS increase nevertheless overstates the improvement in recurring operations. Higher nonoperating income and a lower share count contributed, including US$164M of investment gains largely linked to Securitize and Circle. Performance fees are also less predictable than management fees, while private-market expansion brings fundraising and integration risks. Sustainable upside therefore depends on maintaining base-fee growth and margins rather than repeating investment gains. Shares closed at US$1,073.79 on 14 October, up 0.72%, after a stronger initial reaction. The modest closing gain leaves room for a favourable earnings reassessment if flows persist. Watch organic fee growth, private-market fundraising, Aladdin contracts and the conversion of inflows into fees. Our positive call rests on a broader franchise delivering growth and operating leverage, with market declines and weaker performance fees the main near-term risks. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$956–1,211. Positive Outlook.

贝莱德 (BLK)

• 26财年第三季度营收：77.5亿美元，同比增长19.1%，超出预期3.2389亿美元。

• 26财年第三季度每股收益：调整后每股收益15.93美元，同比增长38%，超出预期1.63美元。

• 26财年第四季度指引：公司未提供第四季度营收或每股收益指引。管理层预计税率约25%，并计划至少回购5.50亿美元股票。

• 26财年全年指引：公司未提供全年营收或每股收益指引。全年一般及行政费用预计增长中个位数百分比；长期仍致力于实现科技业务年度合同价值低至中双位数增长。

• 短评：本季度经营强劲，有机增长及利润率扩张支持正面判断。净流入2,050亿美元，使管理资产达到15.49万亿美元，年化有机基础费增长为11%。ETF、系统化股票、私募市场及现金业务均有贡献，显示增长并非仅被动受益于股市上涨。基础费及证券借贷收入增长20%，增强经常性盈利基础。科技服务及订阅收入增长14%至5.88亿美元，年度合同价值增长12%。随着Aladdin及多产品方案扩张，这些收入有助于多元化及提升盈利质量。调整后经营利润增长27%，快于营收；经营利润率扩张320个基点至47.8%，体现持续投资下的成本纪律。不过，调整后EPS增长38%，高于可持续经营改善幅度；非经营收入增加及股数减少均有贡献，其中1.64亿美元投资收益主要与Securitize及Circle有关。绩效费也不如管理费稳定，私募市场扩张带来募资及整合风险。因此，持续上行依赖基础费及利润率，而非重复投资收益。10月14日股价收于1,073.79美元，上涨0.72%，低于初期较强反应。若资金流持续，有限的收盘涨幅为盈利重估留下空间。后续重点是有机费用增长、私募募资、Aladdin合同及流入转化为费用的进度。正面判断基于更广泛业务的增长及经营杠杆，市场下跌和绩效费走弱则是主要短期风险。 26财年第四季度建议交易区间：956–1,211美元。正面前景。

• 股息与回购：本季度回购5.50亿美元股票，高于第二季度的4.50亿美元。季度股息维持每股5.73美元；管理层计划第四季度至少回购5.50亿美元。