Technical Analysis: 14 October 2026

UnitedHealth Group (UNH) 

3Q26 earnings update | As of 14 October 2026 

• 3Q26 Revenue: US$112.69B, -0.4% YoY, beat estimates by US$1.38B. 

• 3Q26 EPS: US$4.69 adjusted, +60.6% YoY, beat estimates by US$0.55. 

• 4Q26 Guidance: The company did not provide separate 4Q26 revenue or EPS guidance. 

• FY26 Guidance: Raised adjusted EPS guidance to at least US$20.50 from US$19.50–20.00; GAAP EPS to at least US$19.50 from US$18.45–18.95. No new full-year revenue guidance was provided. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: Year-to-date share repurchases US$5.0bn and cash dividends US$6.2bn. Quarterly operating cash flow US$5.1bn (1.2x net income); debt-to-capital 41.7%, with approximately 40% year-end target. 

• Comment: This was a positive quarter for the recovery thesis, although improving margins rather than revenue growth drove the result. Insurance repricing, benefit changes and medical cost control helped reduce the medical care ratio to 88.4% from 89.9%. The raised adjusted EPS floor provides a firmer earnings baseline and suggests management is gaining confidence in the turnaround. However, US$610M of favourable medical reserve development supported the quarter, so the full margin improvement should not be extrapolated as a recurring run rate. Membership remains the principal constraint. Medicare Advantage enrolment has fallen by 935,000 since year-end, while Optum Health revenue declined 10% as the business reduced its presence in less viable value-based care markets. Exiting weak contracts can improve profitability, but it also reduces the revenue base. The next stage of the recovery requires membership stabilisation alongside sustained medical cost discipline, rather than further contraction alone. Shares closed at US$377.76 on 13 October, down 0.2%, despite the initial positive reaction. That represents approximately 18.4x the new FY26 adjusted EPS floor. The valuation leaves room for upside if the recovery proves durable, but does not justify assuming an immediate return to historical margins. Watch medical costs excluding reserve effects, Medicare Advantage retention, Optum Health profitability and whether earnings improvement broadens into revenue growth. The higher guidance supports a positive stance, with conviction dependent on the next evidence of sustainable operating progress. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$349–410. Positive Outlook. 
  
  

联合健康集团 (UNH) 

2026年第三季度财报更新 | 截至2026年10月14日 

• 26财年第三季度营收：1,126.9亿美元，同比下降0.4%，超出预期13.8亿美元。 

• 26财年第三季度每股收益：调整后每股收益4.69美元，同比增长60.6%，超出预期0.55美元。 

• 26财年第四季度指引：公司未提供单独的26财年第四季度营收或每股收益指引。 

• 26财年全年指引：调整后每股收益指引由19.50–20.00美元上调至至少20.50美元；公认会计准则每股收益由18.45–18.95美元上调至至少19.50美元。公司未提供新的全年营收指引。 

• 股息与回购：年初至今回购约50亿美元股票，并支付约62亿美元股息。本季度经营现金流为51亿美元，相当于净利润的1.2倍。债务资本比率为41.7%，年底目标约为40%。 

• 短评：本季度对盈利修复逻辑形成支持，但改善主要来自利润率，而非营收增长。保险重新定价、福利设计调整及医疗成本控制，使医疗赔付率由89.9%降至88.4%。全年调整后每股收益下限上调，为估值提供更明确的盈利基础，也显示管理层对转型进展的信心增强。不过，本季度包含6.10亿美元有利医疗准备金调整，因此不宜将全部利润率改善视为可持续的经营水平。 会员收缩仍是核心制约。Medicare Advantage会员较年底减少93.5万人；Optum Health退出部分缺乏经营规模的价值医疗市场，营收下降10%。退出低效业务有助于改善盈利，但也缩小收入基础。下一阶段需要在维持医疗成本纪律的同时稳定会员人数，而不能仅依靠进一步收缩。 10月13日股价收于377.76美元，下跌0.2%，尽管财报发布后初期反应积极。按新的全年调整后每股收益下限计算，估值约为18.4倍市盈率。若修复持续，估值仍有上行空间，但目前不足以假设利润率迅速回到历史水平。后续重点是剔除准备金影响后的医疗成本、Medicare Advantage留存、Optum Health盈利，以及利润改善能否扩展至营收增长。上调指引支持正面判断，但更高确信度仍需持续经营改善的证据。 26财年第四季度建议交易区间：349–410美元。正面前景。
   

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) 

3Q26 earnings update | As of 14 October 2026 

• 3Q26 Revenue: US$50.17B reported, +8.1% YoY, missed estimates by US$1.04B. 

• 3Q26 EPS: US$5.75 adjusted, missed estimates by US$0.19. 

• 4Q26 Guidance: 4Q26: NII excluding Markets approximately US$25.5bn; total NII approximately US$28bn; adjusted expense approximately US$27.5bn, all market dependent. Revenue and EPS guidance not provided. 

• FY26 Guidance: FY26 total NII approximately US$106.2bn versus prior US$105.5bn; NII excluding Markets approximately US$97.2bn versus US$96.5bn; adjusted expense approximately US$108.6bn versus US$107.5bn. Card Services net charge-off rate approximately 3.2%. Preliminary 2027 central case NII excluding Markets approximately US$107bn. Full-year EPS guidance not provided. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: Quarterly common dividend US$1.65/share, US$4.4bn distributed. Net common stock repurchases US$664m; management reduced repurchases to prioritise franchise/client capital deployment. Standardised CET1 13.9%; ROTCE 20% reported and 21% excluding securities losses. 

• Comment: This was a resilient operating quarter, but the earnings miss and faster expense growth limit the case for a stronger near-term call. Average loans increased 10% and deposits 8%, supporting core interest income. Consumer banking revenue rose 9%, while card balances and asset-management fees added to growth. Higher interest-income guidance provides support through year-end. Capital-markets performance was strong but uneven: equity markets revenue increased 49%, whereas fixed-income revenue declined 4%. Investment-banking fees rose 14% year on year but fell 8% sequentially as client activity moderated. Diversification remains valuable, but the strongest trading performance should not be extrapolated across the franchise. Adjusted EPS excludes a securities repositioning loss, yet still missed consensus. Expenses increased 12%, outpacing managed revenue growth of 8%; the higher annual expense forecast absorbs part of the NII upgrade. Credit remained manageable, although the US$539M reserve build highlights forward risks. Reduced buybacks also limit immediate per-share support as management favours business investment and client capital deployment. The preliminary 2027 NII outlook is encouraging, but depends on rates and balance-sheet growth. Watch deposit growth, card losses, investment-banking activity and expense discipline. Our neutral outlook balances strong franchise quality against weaker-than-expected earnings and rising costs. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$282–338. Neutral Outlook. 
  
  

摩根大通 (JPM) 

2026年第三季度财报更新 | 截至2026年10月14日 

• 26财年第三季度营收：按报告口径为501.7亿美元，同比增长8.1%，低于预期10.4亿美元。 

• 26财年第三季度每股收益：调整后每股收益5.75美元，低于预期0.19美元。 

• 26财年第四季度指引：预计不含市场业务的净利息收入约255亿美元，总净利息收入约280亿美元，调整后费用约275亿美元，均取决于市场环境。公司未提供营收或每股收益指引。 

• 26财年全年指引：总净利息收入由约1,055亿美元上调至1,062亿美元；不含市场业务部分由965亿美元上调至972亿美元。调整后费用由1,075亿美元上调至1,086亿美元；信用卡净核销率约3.2%。2027年不含市场业务净利息收入初步基准约1,070亿美元。公司未提供全年每股收益指引。 

• 股息与回购：每季度普通股股息为1.65美元，分配约44亿美元股息。普通股净回购仅6.64亿美元，管理层优先将资本投入业务及客户需求。标准化CET1为13.9%；报告及调整后有形普通股权益回报率分别为20%和21%。 

• 短评：本季度经营仍具韧性，但盈利低于预期及费用增长较快，限制了短期进一步看多的依据。平均贷款增长10%，存款增长8%，支撑核心利息收入；消费者银行营收增长9%，信用卡余额及资产管理费也提供贡献。净利息收入指引上调，为年底前盈利提供支撑。资本市场表现强劲但分化：股票业务收入增长49%，固定收益收入下降4%；投行费用同比增长14%，但环比下降8%，客户活动有所降温。多元化业务仍具价值，但不能将最强交易业务的表现外推至整个集团。调整后EPS剔除了证券组合调整损失，但仍低于预期。费用增长12%，快于管理口径营收的8%增速；全年费用指引上调，抵消了部分净利息收入改善。信贷仍可控，但5.39亿美元准备金增加显示前瞻风险仍需关注。回购减少也限制了每股收益的直接支撑，管理层优先投资业务及客户资本需求。2027年净利息收入初步展望积极，但依赖利率及资产负债表增长。后续重点是存款增长、信用卡损失、投行业务及费用纪律。强大业务基础与盈利不及预期、成本压力并存，因此维持中性判断。 26财年第四季度建议交易区间：282–338美元。中性前景。 
  
  

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) 

3Q26 earnings update | As of 14 October 2026 

• 3Q26 Revenue: US$18.68B, +23% YoY, beat estimates by US$1.81B. 

• 3Q26 EPS: US$17.01 GAAP, +38.9% YoY, beat estimates by US$4.11. 

• 4Q26 Guidance: The company did not provide 4Q26 revenue or EPS guidance. 

• FY26 Guidance: The company did not provide FY26 revenue or EPS guidance. Management remains constructive on franchise growth; the investment-banking fee backlog declined versus 2Q26. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: US$3.00bn quarterly share repurchases plus US$1.49bn common dividends, total US$4.49bn returned. US$5.00/share dividend declared for payment 30 December 2026, record date 2 December. Dividend unchanged from the US$5.00 rate introduced in 3Q26. ROE 18.7%, ROTE 20.5%; book value/share US$372.64. 

• Comment: This was a strong quarter, with a substantial revenue and EPS beat demonstrating the strength of Goldman’s client franchise. Equities revenue increased 72% to US$6.44B, supported by financing and intermediation, while investment-banking fees rose 21% to US$3.22B. FICC revenue was broadly unchanged at US$3.47B as stronger financing and currencies offset weaker activity elsewhere. The result therefore reflects exceptional equities performance rather than uniform acceleration across every market business. The earnings beat also absorbed an accelerated charitable contribution that reduced EPS by approximately US$1.00. However, revenue and EPS declined from the unusually strong second quarter, and the investment-banking fee backlog fell sequentially. Those factors argue against treating the third-quarter run rate as a floor for future profits. Asset and Wealth Management is strengthening the recurring earnings base. Revenue increased 14% and management and other fees rose 22%, while assets under supervision reached US$4.10T with US$97B of long-term net inflows. Sustained fee growth matters because it can reduce dependence on volatile trading and investment revenues. Incentive fees and investment gains nevertheless remain less predictable. An 18.7% ROE and 20.5% ROTE support the franchise’s valuation premium, while US$4.49B of shareholder distributions provide additional support. Our positive outlook rests on strong client engagement, improving recurring fees and capital returns. Watch equities financing, transaction completion, the deal backlog, inflows and expense discipline. The principal risk is a normalisation of trading activity before recurring revenues become a larger earnings contributor. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$854–1,024. Positive Outlook. 
  
  

高盛集团 (GS) 

2026年第三季度财报更新 | 截至2026年10月14日 

• 26财年第三季度营收：186.8亿美元，同比增长23%，超出预期18.1亿美元。 

• 26财年第三季度每股收益：公认会计准则每股收益17.01美元，同比增长38.9%，超出预期4.11美元。 

• 26财年第四季度指引：公司未提供26财年第四季度营收或每股收益指引。 

• 26财年全年指引：公司未提供26财年全年营收或每股收益指引。管理层对业务增长仍持积极判断，但投行费用积压较第二季度下降。 

• 股息与回购：本季度回购30亿美元股票，支付14.9亿美元普通股股息，合计返还44.9亿美元。每股5.00美元股息将于12月30日支付，登记日为12月2日。股本回报率为18.7%，有形股本回报率为20.5%。 

• 短评：本季度营收和每股收益显著超出预期，证明高盛客户业务的实力。股票业务收入增长72%至64.4亿美元，融资及交易业务均有贡献；投行费用增长21%至32.2亿美元。固定收益、货币及商品收入基本持平于34.7亿美元，融资和外汇改善抵消其他业务疲弱。因此，强劲结果主要体现股票业务的突出表现，而非所有市场业务同步加速。 本季度盈利已计入提前捐赠带来的每股约1.00美元影响，仍大幅超出预期。不过，营收和每股收益较异常强劲的第二季度下降，投行费用积压也环比回落，因此不宜将第三季度水平视为未来利润底线。 资产及财富管理继续增强经常性盈利基础。营收增长14%，管理及其他费用增长22%；管理资产达到4.10万亿美元，长期净流入为970亿美元。持续管理费增长，有助于降低对波动较大的交易及投资收入的依赖，但绩效费和投资收益仍存在不确定性。 18.7%的股本回报率和20.5%的有形股本回报率支持估值溢价，44.9亿美元股东回报也提供支撑。正面判断基于客户活动、经常性费用及资本回报的改善。后续重点是股票融资、交易完成、投行积压、资金流入及费用纪律。主要风险在于，经常性收入尚未扩大贡献之前，交易活动已开始正常化。 26财年第四季度建议交易区间：854–1,024美元。正面前景。 
  
  

Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) 

3Q26 earnings update | As of 14 October 2026 

• 3Q26 Revenue: US$21.87B, +2.0% YoY, missed estimates by US$454.43M. 

• 3Q26 EPS: US$1.87 GAAP, +12.7% YoY, beat estimates by US$0.02. 

• 4Q26 Guidance: 4Q26 NII approximately $13bn. Company did not provide quarterly EPS or total-revenue guidance in its outlook slide. 

• FY26 Guidance: 2026 NII approximately $50bn and noninterest expense approximately $55.7bn, both unchanged from prior guidance. No full-year EPS or total-revenue guidance provided in the reviewed outlook slide. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: Repurchased $2.5bn / 28.6m common shares in 3Q26. Quarterly dividend $0.50 versus $0.45 in 2Q26 (+11.1%). Preliminary CET1 10.0% versus 11.0% a year earlier. 

• Comment: This was a mixed quarter: balance-sheet growth and cost control improved operating performance, but the small EPS beat does not justify an immediate upgrade to the earnings outlook. Average loans and deposits both increased 11%. NII rose 5% to US$12.52B, supported by balance-sheet expansion and fixed-rate asset repricing. The net interest margin remained 2.43%, unchanged sequentially and below 2.61% a year earlier, indicating that volumes rather than wider spreads drove the improvement. Fees were less convincing. Noninterest income declined 1% as weaker venture-capital results and the earlier rail-car leasing disposal offset growth in advisory and other operating businesses. Wealth and Investment Management revenue increased 12%, Commercial Banking 6%, and Consumer Banking and Lending 5%. Expenses declined 1%, supporting operating leverage, but the overall revenue miss points to uneven progress. The quarter included US$170M of discrete tax benefits, worth approximately US$0.06 per diluted share. Buybacks also supported EPS growth relative to the more modest increase in net income. Those benefits leave underlying growth positive, but reduce the significance of the headline beat. Credit provisions increased to US$1.03B, while CET1 declined to 10.0%, making capital discipline more important as lending expands. Management maintained its annual NII and expense outlook and expects approximately US$13B of fourth-quarter NII. Delivery against that run rate, a recovery in fees and deposit-cost control are the next tests. Shares were down 1.37% at US$82.15 in 13 October premarket trading. We remain neutral until stronger revenue conversion and recurring earnings make the investment case more compelling. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$72–94. Neutral Outlook. 
  
  

富国银行 (WFC) 

2026年第三季度财报更新 | 截至2026年10月14日 

• 26财年第三季度营收：218.7亿美元，同比增长2.0%，低于预期4.5443亿美元。 

• 26财年第三季度每股收益：公认会计准则每股收益1.87美元，同比增长12.7%，超出预期0.02美元。 

• 26财年第四季度指引：预计第四季度净利息收入约130亿美元。公司未提供季度每股收益或总营收指引。 

• 26财年全年指引：净利息收入约500亿美元，非利息费用约557亿美元，均维持此前指引。公司未提供全年每股收益或总营收指引。 

• 股息与回购：本季度回购25亿美元股票，约2,860万股。季度股息由0.45美元增至0.50美元，增加11.1%。初步CET1为10.0%，低于一年前的11.0%。 

• 短评：本季度表现分化：资产负债表增长和成本控制改善经营，但小幅盈利超预期不足以支持立即上调盈利判断。平均贷款和存款均增长11%；净利息收入增长5%至125.2亿美元，受益于规模扩张和固定利率资产重新定价。净息差为2.43%，环比持平，低于一年前的2.61%，说明改善主要来自业务量，而非息差扩大。 手续费表现较弱。非利息收入下降1%，创投收益下滑及此前出售铁路车辆租赁业务，抵消了顾问及其他业务增长。财富与投资管理营收增长12%，商业银行增长6%，消费者银行与贷款增长5%。费用下降1%带来经营杠杆，但整体营收低于预期，显示改善仍不均衡。 本季度包含1.70亿美元一次性税收收益，约相当于每股0.06美元；回购也使每股收益增幅高于净利润。这些因素并未否定经营增长，但降低了盈利超预期的含金量。信贷拨备增至10.3亿美元，CET1降至10.0%，贷款扩张期间更需关注资本纪律。 管理层维持全年净利息收入及费用指引，预计第四季度净利息收入约130亿美元。兑现这一水平、恢复手续费及控制存款成本，是下一阶段的关键。10月13日盘前股价下跌1.37%至82.15美元。我们维持中性判断，等待营收转化及可持续盈利进一步增强投资逻辑。 26财年第四季度建议交易区间：72–94美元。中性前景。 
  
  

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) 

3Q26 earnings update | As of 14 October 2026 

• 3Q26 Revenue: US$25.40B, +5.9% YoY, beat estimates by US$28.82M. 

• 3Q26 EPS: US$2.59 adjusted, -7.5% YoY, beat estimates by US$0.07. 

• 4Q26 Guidance: The company did not provide separate 4Q26 revenue or EPS guidance. 

• FY26 Guidance: Raised sales to US$101.0–101.4B from US$100.8–101.4B and adjusted EPS to US$11.05–11.15 from US$10.96–11.11. The EPS midpoint increases by US$0.06 versus the latest July outlook. GAAP EPS guidance not provided. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: Q4 cash dividend US$1.34 per share, payable 8 December 2026; record/ex-dividend date 24 November. Estimated nine-month free cash flow approximately US$15.1bn (not quarterly). No new buyback authorisation or Q3 repurchase amount identified in the release. 

• Comment: This was a modest adjusted earnings beat, with stronger pharmaceutical growth offset by legal and investment-related pressure on profitability. Innovative Medicine outperformed MedTech as Tremfya, oncology and neuroscience products helped offset Stelara erosion. That is encouraging evidence that newer medicines can sustain growth through the loss-of-exclusivity cycle. MedTech’s slower performance, however, limits the breadth of the improvement. The commercial progress has not yet translated into stronger group earnings. Adjusted EPS declined 7.5%, while the proposed talc resolution charge and Firefly Bio and Sail Biomedicines transactions weighed on reported profitability. The transactions also affected adjusted earnings, making acquisition dilution and the timing of future returns important to the investment case. Management raised the FY26 sales midpoint to US$101.2B and the adjusted EPS midpoint to US$11.10. The EPS increase is only US$0.06 versus the latest July outlook, so the guidance improvement is positive but limited. A larger earnings upgrade requires the growing products to offset legacy erosion and incremental research and transaction spending more decisively. Shares closed at US$248.61 on 13 October, down 5.73%, implying approximately 22.4x the adjusted EPS guidance midpoint. That valuation still requires dependable growth. The US$1.34 quarterly dividend and approximately US$15.1B of nine-month free cash flow provide support, but do not remove execution and legal risks. Watch new-drug growth, MedTech acceleration, acquisition-related dilution and the completion of the proposed talc resolution. Our neutral outlook recognises a healthy commercial portfolio while waiting for clearer conversion of sales growth into earnings. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$222–266. Neutral Outlook. 
  
  

强生 (JNJ) 

2026年第三季度财报更新 | 截至2026年10月14日 

• 26财年第三季度营收：254.0亿美元，同比增长5.9%，超出预期2,882万美元。 

• 26财年第三季度每股收益：调整后每股收益2.59美元，同比下降7.5%，超出预期0.07美元。 

• 26财年第四季度指引：公司未提供单独的26财年第四季度营收或每股收益指引。 

• 26财年全年指引：全年销售额由1,008–1,014亿美元上调至1,010–1,014亿美元；调整后每股收益由10.96–11.11美元上调至11.05–11.15美元。相较最新7月展望，EPS中值上调0.06美元。公司未提供公认会计准则每股收益指引。 

• 股息与回购：第四季度每股现金股息为1.34美元，12月8日支付，登记及除息日为11月24日。估计前九个月自由现金流约151亿美元。财报未披露新的回购授权或第三季度回购金额。 

• 短评：本季度调整后盈利小幅超预期，较强的制药业务增长被法律及投资相关盈利压力部分抵消。创新药业务优于医疗科技，Tremfya、肿瘤及神经科学产品帮助抵消Stelara下滑。这证明新药有能力支撑专利到期周期中的增长，但医疗科技改善较慢，使集团增长的广度受到限制。 商业进展尚未转化为更强的整体盈利。调整后每股收益下降7.5%；拟议滑石粉诉讼解决费用，以及Firefly Bio收购和Sail Biomedicines合作，对报告盈利形成压力。相关交易也影响调整后盈利，因此收购摊薄及未来回报兑现时间，仍是投资逻辑的重要部分。 管理层将全年销售额中值上调至1,012亿美元，调整后EPS中值上调至11.10美元，但相较最新7月展望仅增加0.06美元。指引改善方向积极，幅度有限。更显著的盈利上调，需要新产品增长更充分抵消旧产品流失及新增研发与交易支出。 10月13日股价收于248.61美元，下跌5.73%，相当于全年调整后EPS中值约22.4倍市盈率。这一估值仍要求稳定增长。每股1.34美元股息及约151亿美元的九个月自由现金流提供支撑，但不能消除经营和法律风险。后续重点是新药增长、医疗科技加速、收购摊薄及拟议滑石粉解决方案的落实。商业组合健康，但仍需等待销售增长更明确地转化为盈利，因此维持中性前景。 26财年第四季度建议交易区间：222–266美元。中性前景。 
  
  

Citigroup Inc. (C) 

3Q26 earnings update | As of 14 October 2026 

• 3Q26 Revenue: US$23.85B, +7.9% YoY, beat estimates by US$125.68M. 

• 3Q26 EPS: US$2.85 GAAP, +53.2% YoY, beat estimates by US$0.20. 

• 4Q26 Guidance: Company did not provide specific 4Q26 EPS or total-revenue guidance in its outlook slide. 

• FY26 Guidance: 2026 NII ex-Markets growth raised to the mid-to-high 6% range from approximately 5–6%; efficiency ratio below 60% versus prior approximately 60%; RoTCE above 11% versus prior 10–11%; U.S. Cards net credit loss ratio approximately 4.0%, the low end of prior 4.0–4.5%. No full-year EPS or total-revenue guidance provided in the reviewed outlook slide. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: Returned $4.1bn to common shareholders in 3Q26, including $3.0bn common-share repurchases; $13.3bn repurchases year-to-date. Existing $30bn programme continues. Quarterly common dividend $0.67 versus prior $0.60 (+11.7%), declared 21 July and paid 28 August 2026. Preliminary CET1 12.8%; tangible book value $101.59/share. 

• Comment: This was a positive quarter for Citi’s improving-return thesis, with Services and Wealth growth providing a stronger earnings foundation. Services revenue rose 15% to US$6.61B, supported by deposits, spreads and transaction fees. Wealth revenue also increased 15% to US$3.27B, while client investment assets rose 15%. Those businesses are more important to a sustained re-rating than a single strong trading quarter. The headline EPS growth benefits from the prior-year Banamex goodwill impairment and a lower share count. Against prior-year EPS excluding that impairment, growth was 27%, still strong but less dramatic than the reported comparison. Total revenue declined 4% sequentially. Underlying expenses increased 3% excluding the prior-year impairment, suggesting positive operating leverage rather than outright cost contraction. Guidance is the clearest positive. Management raised its NII excluding Markets growth outlook to the mid-to-high 6% range, improved the efficiency-ratio expectation to below 60% and now targets RoTCE above 11%. The cards loss outlook also moved to the low end of its previous range. These changes support higher confidence that restructuring is translating into earnings progress. Capital returns remain material, including US$3B of quarterly buybacks and a 12.8% CET1 ratio. Credit provisions nevertheless included a US$369M reserve build, so improved consumer losses should not be mistaken for the absence of forward risk. Our positive outlook depends on sustained Services and Wealth momentum, expense discipline and further improvement in returns. Watch deposit spreads, investment flows, card losses and the ability to deliver the upgraded targets as trading activity normalises. 4Q26 recommended trading range: US$102–132. Positive Outlook. 
  
  

花旗集团 (C) 

2026年第三季度财报更新 | 截至2026年10月14日 

• 26财年第三季度营收：238.5亿美元，同比增长7.9%，超出预期1.2568亿美元。 

• 26财年第三季度每股收益：公认会计准则每股收益2.85美元，同比增长53.2%，超出预期0.20美元。 

• 26财年第四季度指引：公司未提供26财年第四季度每股收益或总营收指引。 

• 26财年全年指引：不含市场业务的净利息收入增速由约5%–6%上调至6%区间的中高段；效率比率由约60%改善至低于60%；有形普通股权益回报率由10%–11%上调至超过11%。美国信用卡净信贷损失率约4.0%，位于原4.0%–4.5%区间低端。公司未提供全年每股收益或总营收指引。 

• 股息与回购：本季度向普通股股东返还41亿美元，其中回购30亿美元；年初至今回购133亿美元，既有300亿美元计划继续执行。季度股息由0.60美元上调至0.67美元，增加11.7%。初步CET1为12.8%，每股有形净资产为101.59美元。 

• 短评：本季度支持花旗回报率改善逻辑，服务及财富管理增长提供更坚实的盈利基础。服务业务营收增长15%至66.1亿美元，受益于存款、息差及交易费用；财富管理增长15%至32.7亿美元，客户投资资产增长15%。相较单季交易强劲，这些业务对持续估值提升更为重要。 报告EPS增长受益于去年Banamex商誉减值及股数减少。剔除去年减值影响后，EPS仍增长27%，表现强劲但低于报告增幅。总营收环比下降4%；剔除去年减值后的费用增长3%，显示真正的改善来自正经营杠杆，而非费用绝对下降。 指引是最明确的积极因素。管理层将不含市场业务的净利息收入增速上调至6%区间的中高段，效率比率改善至低于60%，并预计有形普通股权益回报率超过11%。信用卡损失展望也移至原区间低端。这些变化增强了重组正在转化为盈利改善的可信度。 资本回报仍具规模，包括本季度30亿美元回购及12.8%的CET1。不过，信贷拨备包含3.69亿美元准备金增加，消费者损失改善并不等于前瞻风险消失。我们的正面判断依赖服务及财富管理持续增长、费用纪律及回报率进一步提升。后续重点是存款息差、投资资金流、信用卡损失，以及交易活动正常化时能否兑现上调后的目标。 26财年第四季度建议交易区间：102–132美元。正面前景。