Technical Analysis: 9 October 2026

PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP)

• 3Q26 Revenue: $25.27B, +5.6% YoY, beat estimates by $310M

• 3Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.34, beat estimates by $0.04

• FY26 Guidance: Cut FY26 core constant-currency EPS growth guidance to +1–2% from the low end of the previous +4–6% range, while reported core EPS growth is now expected at +2.5–3.5%, versus the low end of +5–7% previously. Organic revenue growth is now expected at approximately 3%, with reported revenue growth around 6%. Management is implementing additional structural cost reductions to fund growth investments and offset rising input costs.

• Dividend/Share Buyback: Maintained expected FY26 shareholder returns of approximately US$8.9B, comprising US$7.9B of dividends and US$1.0B of share repurchases. The quarterly dividend remains US$1.48/share, representing the company’s 54th consecutive annual dividend increase.

• Comment: This was a better revenue quarter than the headline guidance cut suggests. Organic revenue growth accelerated to 3.1%, international businesses remained strong, and North American snacks showed sequential volume improvement after PepsiCo reset pricing and affordability. Global convenient-food and beverage organic volumes both returned to growth, providing some evidence that demand elasticity is improving after several quarters of weakness. The key issue is margins. PepsiCo substantially reduced FY26 earnings expectations despite better-than-expected revenue because North American profitability remains under pressure from higher agricultural, aluminium, fuel and other input costs. The temporary tariff-refund benefit also makes Q3 underlying profitability weaker than the reported numbers imply. North American beverage volume declined 2%, while PepsiCo Foods North America generated flat organic revenue and a 12% decline in core constant-currency operating profit, showing that the domestic turnaround remains incomplete. Shares nevertheless rose approximately 3.8% to US$128.34 following the results as investors responded positively to accelerating organic growth and management’s commitment to deeper cost reductions. The principal variables to monitor are North American beverage volumes, snack market share, pricing elasticity, input-cost inflation, core operating margin and whether structural cost savings can restore EPS growth during FY27. At roughly US$128, valuation has compressed substantially from historical levels, providing some downside support, but the magnitude of the FY26 EPS guidance cut prevents a higher-conviction bullish stance. 4Q26 recommended trading range: $118 to $140. Neutral Outlook.

百事公司（PEP)

• 26财年第三季度营收：252.7亿美元，同比增长5.6%，超出预期3.1亿美元

• 26财年第三季度非公认会计准则每股收益：2.34美元，超出预期0.04美元

• 26财年全年指引：下调全年核心固定汇率EPS增长指引至+1%–2%（此前为+4%–6%区间的下限），报告的调整后EPS增长预期现为+2.5%–3.5%（此前为+5%–7%区间的下限）；有机营收增长预期约为3%，报告营收增长约为6%；管理层正在实施额外的结构性成本削减，以资助增长投资并抵消不断上升的投入成本。

• 股息与回购：维持26财年约89亿美元的股东回报预期（包括79亿美元股息和10亿美元股票回购）。季度股息维持在每股1.48美元，这标志着公司连续第54年增加年度股息（彰显极强的股息贵族底蕴）。

• 短评：本季度的实际营收表现，要好于盈利指引下调所呈现的表面悲观情绪。核心亮点（销量修复与弹性改善）：有机营收增长加速至3.1%，国际业务保持强劲。在百事主动重置定价并提升产品“可负担性（affordability）”后，北美零食业务的销量呈现环比改善。更为重要的是，全球休闲食品和饮料的有机销量双双恢复正增长，这提供了切实的证据，表明在经历了数个季度的疲软后，消费者的需求弹性（demand elasticity）。核心隐忧（利润率挤压与北美饮料疲软）：尽管营收超预期，公司仍大幅下调了全年盈利预期，核心症结在于利润率承压。北美市场的盈利能力持续受到农业原料、铝材、燃料及其他投入成本高企的挤压。此外，本季度的账面利润还包含了临时性关税退款的粉饰，使得底层的实际盈利能力弱于表观数据。细分来看，北美饮料销量依然下滑2%，而北美百事食品（PepsiCo Foods）虽然有机营收持平，但核心固定汇率营业利润大跌12%，表明北美大本营的业务转型与利润修复仍未完成。市场反应：尽管盈利指引被大幅下调，财报后股价仍逆势上涨约3.8%至128.34美元。这表明投资者更看重“有机销量加速恢复”的底层健康度，并对管理层承诺实施更深层次的结构性降本增效做出了积极定价。后续关键变量包括：（1）北美饮料销量的企稳情况；（2）零食业务的市场份额防御与定价弹性；（3）大宗商品及供应链投入成本的通胀压力；（4）核心营业利润率的修复轨迹；（5）结构性成本节约计划能否在27财年实质性恢复EPS的常态化增长。百事公司凭借极其多元的食品与饮料矩阵，在消费降级周期中展现了强大的需求韧性，销量的触底回升是其基本面最核心的积极信号。然而，北美市场的成本挤压与盈利指引的大幅下调，限制了其短期估值向上的弹性。当前约128美元的股价对应其历史估值已大幅压缩，提供了较好的下行保护与安全边际，但基本面反转仍需等待利润率的实质性修复。26财年第四季度建议交易区间：118美元至140美元。中性前景。