Technical Analysis: 3 September 2026

Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: $29.59B, +85.5% YoY, beat estimates by $160M 

• 3Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $3.32, beat estimates by $0.08 

• 4Q26 Guidance: 4Q26 revenue is expected at approximately US$34.8B, +93% YoY but slightly below consensus expectations of approximately US$35.0B. AI semiconductor revenue is expected to accelerate further to US$21.7B, +236% YoY, while non-GAAP operating margin is guided to approximately 66%. The AI guide implies another ~30% sequential increase from Q3 despite increasingly difficult comparisons. 

• Dividend/Share Buyback: Declared a quarterly dividend of US$0.65/share, payable September 30 

• Comment: This was fundamentally a very strong quarter, with AI revenue the standout. AI semiconductor revenue reached US$16.7B and is already guided to US$21.7B next quarter, meaning Broadcom’s custom accelerator and networking franchise continues to scale considerably faster than the broader semiconductor market. Management also indicated FY27 and FY28 AI revenue could reach approximately US$115B and US$230B, respectively, highlighting the scale of the custom-silicon opportunity if hyperscaler programmes ramp as expected. The key issue is expectations rather than current execution. Q4 revenue guidance of US$34.8B is slightly below the approximately US$35.0B consensus, while investors are increasingly focused on competition in custom silicon as Google and other hyperscalers diversify suppliers. Broadcom also faces increasingly demanding AI expectations, meaning even 200%+ AI growth is no longer sufficient unless guidance materially exceeds buy-side assumptions. The combination of custom accelerators, networking and VMware remains highly attractive, but the valuation leaves relatively little tolerance for programme delays or customer-share losses. Shares closed roughly -1.8%, despite the earnings beat. The principal variables to monitor are AI semiconductor revenue versus the US$21.7B Q4 target, FY27 AI revenue expectations, Google/custom-accelerator share, Anthropic and other new hyperscaler ramps, networking growth, operating margin and FCF conversion. 4Q26 recommended trading range: $335 to $410. Neutral Outlook. 

 

博通（AVGO) 

• 26财年第三季度营收：295.9亿美元，同比增长85.5%，超出预期1.6亿美元 

• 26财年第三季度非公认会计准则每股收益：3.32美元，超出预期0.08美元 

• 26财年第四季度指引：营收预计约348亿美元（同比+93%），略低于市场共识的约350亿美元；AI半导体收入预计进一步加速至217亿美元（同比+236%），暗示环比Q3将再增长约30%；非GAAP营业利润率预计约为66%。 

• 股息与回购：宣布每股0.65美元的季度股息，将于9月30日支付。 

• 短评：本季度基本面极为强劲，AI收入是绝对的核心亮点。AI半导体单季收入达到167亿美元，且Q4指引高达217亿美元，表明博通的定制加速器（Custom Accelerator）业务的扩张速度正远超整体半导体市场大盘。更令人震撼的是其长期能见度：管理层预计27财年和28财年的AI收入将分别达到约1150亿美元和2300亿美元，凸显了超大规模客户定制硅片项目如期放量所带来的庞大市场机遇。然而，当前的核心博弈点在于“极高的预期”而非执行力。Q4总营收指引348亿美元微低于市场共识的350亿美元；同时，投资者日益关注定制芯片领域的竞争加剧（如Google等头部客户正在尝试多元化其ASIC供应商）。博通正面临着极其苛刻的AI预期，这意味着即便是200%以上的AI增速，除非指引能实质性地超越买方机构的假设，否则已不足以推动股价上行。“定制加速器+网络+VMware”的业务组合依然极具吸引力，但当前的估值水平对任何项目延期或客户份额流失的容忍度极低。财报后股价收跌约1.8%，呈现典型的高位预期博弈与获利了结。后续关键变量包括：（1）Q4 AI半导体收入能否顺利兑现217亿美元的目标；（2）27财年AI收入长期预期的演进与订单落地；（3）Google等核心超大规模客户的定制加速器份额变化；（4）Anthropic等新晋AI巨头的业务爬坡进度；（5）AI网络互连业务的增长斜率；（6）营业利润率的稳定性与自由现金流转化。博通凭借在定制ASIC与AI网络互连领域的深厚壁垒，已成为AI基础设施不可或缺的核心“卖水人”，长期定制硅片的需求能见度极高。但在经历了长期的估值扩张后，短期的股价表现将高度依赖于能否在激烈的客户博弈中维持份额，并持续交出超越“完美预期”的答卷。26财年第四季度建议交易区间：335美元至410美元。中性前景。 

 

Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company (HPE) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: $12.2B, +33.5% YoY, beat estimates by $210M 

• 3Q26 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.11, beat estimates by $0.17 

• 4Q26 Guidance: Revenue is guided to US$13.9–14.8B, materially above roughly US$13B consensus, with adjusted EPS of US$1.20–1.30 

• FY26 Guidance: Raised FY26 revenue growth guidance to 34–37% from 29–33% previously and adjusted EPS guidance to US$3.75–3.85. FY26 free cash flow is now expected to be at least US$3.75B. More importantly, management raised its FY27 framework to 13–17% revenue growth, 16–20% adjusted EPS growth and at least US$5.0B of free cash flow. 

• Dividends/Share Buybacks: Returned US$324M to shareholders during the quarter through dividends and share repurchases. HPE declared a quarterly dividend of US$0.1425/share and intends to return at least 75% of free cash flow to shareholders in 4Q26. 

• Comment: This was an exceptionally strong beat-and-raise quarter. Revenue, operating profit and demand reached record levels, while HPE materially increased both FY26 and FY27 guidance. AI infrastructure is becoming a genuine multi-year growth engine, but the more attractive aspect of the story is increasingly Networking, where revenue grew 75%, data-center networking doubled and routing increased 270%. The Juniper acquisition therefore appears to be improving HPE’s mix toward higher-margin networking rather than leaving the company purely exposed to lower-margin AI server assembly. The expanded Oracle partnership and management commentary around additional multi-billion-dollar deals provide further upside optionality. The key issue is how much of the AI cycle is already reflected in expectations. HPE had risen approximately 116% YTD before earnings, while memory and other component shortages remain a constraint and management expects supply pressures to persist. Nevertheless, the current post-earnings price around US$49–50 implies only roughly 11x FY27 adjusted EPS if FY26 EPS reaches US$3.80 and FY27 grows near the midpoint of management’s 16–20% framework. That valuation appears considerably less demanding than Dell and most AI infrastructure peers given HPE’s improving networking mix and accelerating free cash flow. Shares initially dropped as much as 8% after earnings. The principal variables to monitor are AI-server orders and backlog conversion, Networking growth, Juniper integration, Cloud & AI operating margin, memory-component costs, Oracle deployments and progress toward the US$5B+ FY27 FCF target. 4Q26 recommended trading range: $45 to $60. Positive Outlook. 

 

慧与科技（HPE) 

• 26财年第三季度营收：122亿美元，同比增长33.5%，大幅超出预期2.1亿美元 

• 26财年第三季度非公认会计准则每股收益：1.11美元，显著超出预期0.17美元 

• 26财年第四季度指引：营收预计为139亿–148亿美元，远超市场共识的约130亿美元；调整后EPS预计为1.20–1.30美元。 

• 26财年全年及27财年长期指引：全年营收增速指引上调至34%–37%（此前为29%–33%），调整后EPS上调至3.75–3.85美元；全年自由现金流（FCF）；更重要的是，管理层上调了27财年的长期财务框架：预计营收增长13%–17%，调整后EPS增长16%–20%，自由现金流至少达到50亿美元。 

• 股息与回购：本季度通过股息和股票回购向股东返还3.24亿美元。宣布每股0.1425美元的季度股息，并计划在第四季度将至少75%的自由现金流返还给股东。 

• 短评：本季度呈现极为强劲的“超预期+大幅上调指引”态势，营收、营业利润和客户需求均创下历史新高。核心亮点：AI基础设施正成为公司真正的多年期增长引擎。但更具战略吸引力的看点在于网络业务（Networking）：网络营收同比大增75%，数据中心网络业务翻倍，路由业务更是暴增270%。这表明对Juniper的收购正成功改善HPE的业务结构，使其向高毛利的网络业务倾斜，从而摆脱了单纯依赖低毛利AI服务器组装的被动局面。此外，与Oracle扩大合作以及管理层提及的额外数十亿美元潜在订单，为公司提供了巨大的上行期权。估值与预期博弈：核心问题在于AI周期的红利有多少已被计入股价。财报前HPE年内已累计大涨约116%。同时，内存及其他元器件短缺仍是制约因素，管理层预计供应压力将持续。然而，在财报后约49–50美元的股价水位下，若按26财年EPS 3.80美元及27财年增速中值测算，仅隐含约11倍的27财年调整后市盈率。考虑到HPE日益优化的网络业务结构与加速释放的自由现金流，这一估值相较于Dell及多数AI基础设施同行显得极具性价比。市场反应：尽管基本面完美，财报后股价初段仍下跌高达8%，呈现典型的高位获利了结与预期兑现反应。后续关键变量包括：（1）AI服务器订单及积压订单（backlog）；（2）网络业务（尤其是数据中心网络）；（3）Juniper收购后的业务与文化整合进度；（4）云与AI业务的营业利润率表现；（5）内存等核心元器件的成本与供应约束；（6）Oracle等战略合作项目的实际部署进度；（7）向50亿美元以上FY27 FCF目标迈进的执行情况。慧与科技凭借“AI服务器+Juniper网络”的双轮驱动，成功实现了从传统IT硬件向高附加值AI与网络基础设施提供商的蜕变。其强劲的现金流创造能力、极具吸引力的前瞻估值以及清晰的长期增长框架，使其在AI算力基建赛道中具备极高的配置价值。26财年第四季度建议交易区间：45美元至60美元。积极前景。 

 

Snowflake Inc. (SNOW) 

• 2Q27 Revenue: $1.55B, +36.0% YoY, beat estimates by $70M 

• 2Q27 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.62, beat estimates by $0.17 

• 3Q27 Guidance: Expect product revenue of $1.588B to $1.593B, representing 37% to 38% YoY growth, the midpoint exceeds the analyst consensus of $1.57B. 

• FY27 Guidance: Raised its full-year product revenue guidance to $6.07B, representing 36% YoY growth, up from previous guidance of $5.84B, above the consensus of $5.84B. Also raised full-year adjusted operating margin guidance to 14.5% from 13.5% previously. 

• Comment: Snowflake beat Q2 forecast, adjusted EPS of $0.62 came in $0.17 above the $0.45 consensus, while revenue of $1.55bn topped the $1.48bn estimate and grew 35% YoY. Product revenue of $1.49bn rose 37% YoY, the third consecutive quarter of product revenue acceleration, which management attributed to AI products compounding across the platform. Customer metrics of 692 net new customers (+32% YoY), 829 Forbes Global 2000 accounts, CoCo past 9,100 accounts after adding more than 2,000 in the quarter, and CoWork at 5,800. For Q3 the company expects, product revenue of $1.588-1.593bn and FY27 product revenue guidance moved to $6.07bn from $5.84bn. Full-year adjusted operating margin guidance was raised to 14.5% from 13.5%. Looking ahead, the management is signalling confidence in the back half rather than simply flowing through an in-quarter outperformance. Two things to watch. First, whether acceleration of product revenue growth holds. Second, the quality of AI adoption. CoCo and CoWork account counts are growing quickly, but account adoption is not yet consumption, the metric that matters is whether these workloads translate into credit burn and net revenue retention, and account counts can rise while revenue contribution stays immaterial. 3Q27 recommended trading range: $350 to $400. Positive Outlook. 

 

Snowflake Inc.（SNOW) 

• 27财年第二季度营收：15.5亿美元，同比增长36.0%，大幅超出预期7000万美元 

• 27财年第二季度非公认会计准则每股收益：0.62美元，显著超出预期0.17美元 

• 27财年第三季度指引：产品营收预计为15.88亿–15.93亿美元，同比增长37%–38%，中值高于分析师共识的15.7亿美元。 

• 27财年全年指引：全年产品营收指引大幅上调至60.7亿美元（同比增长36%），较此前指引的58.4亿美元显著提升，高于市场共识；全年调整后营业利润率指引上调至14.5%，高于此前的13.5%。 

• 短评：本季度业绩全面超预期，展现出极强的基本面动能与AI战略的初步兑现。核心亮点：产品营收达14.9亿美元，同比增长37%，实现连续第三个季度的增长加速，管理层将其归因于AI产品在整个平台上的复合效应（compounding）。客户拓展指标极为亮眼：单季净新增客户692家（同比+32%），福布斯全球2000强企业客户数达829家；CoCo账户数突破9100家（单季新增超2000家），CoWork账户数达5800家。管理层明确释放了对下半年业绩的信心，而非仅仅将本季度的超预期表现简单平滑至后续季度。核心关注点（AI采用的“质”与“量”）：尽管CoCo和CoWork的账户数增长迅猛，但账户的“采用”并不直接等同于“消费”（consumption）。真正关键的指标在于，这些AI工作负载能否有效转化为信用消耗（credit burn）以及净收入留存率（net revenue retention）的提升。若账户数持续攀升而营收贡献始终微薄，则需警惕AI叙事的实际变现效率。后续关键变量包括：（1）产品营收增长加速的持续性；（2）AI工作负载向实际信用消耗的转化效率；（3）净收入留存率（NRR）；（4）CoCo/CoWork的付费转化率与ARPU提升；（5）营业利润率向14.5%目标迈进的执行情况；（6）宏观经济与企业IT支出意愿。Snowflake 凭借其云原生数据平台与AI原生的产品矩阵，正逐步将庞大的客户基数转化为强劲的消费动能，基本面迎来加速拐点。尽管AI产品的深度变现仍需时间验证，但其强劲的营收指引与利润率改善路径已提供了极高的安全边际。27财年第三季度建议交易区间：350美元至400美元。积极前景。 

 

NetApp Inc. (NTAP) 

• 1Q27 Revenue: $2.03B, +30.1% YoY, beat estimates by $190M. 

• 1Q27 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.58, beat estimates by $0.46 

• 2Q27 Guidance: Management expects revenue of $2.025b-$2.175b and non-GAAP EPS of $2.54-$2.64 vs a consensus of $1.85B and $2.16 respectively. 

• FY27 Guidance: Expect revenue $7.975B-$8.225B and non-GAAP EPS of $9.73-$10.03 vs a consensus of $7.54B and $9.03 respectively. 

• Comment: NetApp opened FY27 with a record first quarter, beating expectations, revenue of $2.03bn rose 30% YoY and non-GAAP EPS of $2.58 was up 66%. Growth was led by product revenue of $987mn, all-flash arrays at $1.31bn, public cloud at $206mn on first-party and marketplace services, with support and professional services adding 11% and 15% respectively; RPO of $5.65bn was up 14%. Management attributed the strength to a structurally healthier demand environment alongside some pull-forward of purchases and pricing benefits, with roughly 350 AI and data-lake modernisation wins in the quarter and deal sizes rising as customers move from proof-of-concept to production. Product gross margin slipped 150bps sequentially to 54.6% on higher component costs, partly offset by pricing, and inventory was built up to support demand. The company generated $503mn of operating cash flow and $401mn of free cash flow, returned $302mn via buybacks and dividends, and ended with a $1.1bn net cash position. It also closed two tuck-in acquisitions, DataPelago for in-place AI data processing and JetStream for cloud-native VMware disaster recovery. FY27 guidance was raised materially to revenue of $7.975-8.225bn, gross margin of 68.1-69.1%, operating margin of 30.3-31.3%, and EPS of $9.73-10.03, with Q2 revenue guided to $2.1bn ±$75mn and EPS of $2.54-2.64. Looking ahead, investors should watch whether pricing continues to offset NAND and DRAM inflation and whether AI demand is structural. 2Q27 recommended trading range: $160 to $190. Neutral Outlook. 

 

NetApp, Inc.（NTAP) 

• 27财年第一季度营收：20.3亿美元，同比增长30.1%，大幅超出预期1.9亿美元 

• 27财年第一季度非公认会计准则每股收益：2.58美元，显著超出预期0.46美元（同比大增66%） 

• 27财年第二季度指引：营收预计为20.25亿–21.75亿美元（大幅高于市场共识的18.5亿美元）；非GAAP EPS预计为2.54–2.64美元（大幅高于市场共识的2.16美元）。 

• 27财年全年指引：全年营收预计为79.75亿–82.25亿美元（高于市场共识的75.4亿美元）；全年非GAAP EPS预计为9.73–10.03美元（高于市场共识的9.03美元）；预计全年毛利率为68.1%–69.1%，营业利润率为30.3%–31.3%。 

• 短评：NetApp以创纪录的第一季度业绩开启了27财年，呈现出极为强劲的“超预期+大幅上调指引”态势。核心亮点：增长主要由9.87亿美元的产品收入引领，全闪存阵列收入/ARR高达13.1亿美元，公有云业务（第一方及市场服务）。支持服务与专业服务也分别稳健增长11%和15%；RPO（剩余履约义务）。管理层将强劲表现归因于结构性更健康的需求环境、部分采购订单的前置（pull-forward）以及定价优势。本季度公司赢得了约350个AI与数据湖现代化项目，随着客户从概念验证（PoC）迈向实际生产环境部署，平均交易规模正在不断扩大。资本配置与外延并购：公司展现出强大的现金流创造力，单季产生5.03亿美元经营现金流和4.01亿美元自由现金流，通过回购和股息返还3.02亿美元，期末手握11亿美元净现金。此外，公司完成了两项精准的补充型收购（tuck-in acquisitions）：收购DataPelago以强化就地AI数据处理能力，收购JetStream以完善云原生VMware灾难恢复方案。核心隐忧（毛利率压力）：尽管整体盈利大超预期，但受NAND和DRAM等元器件成本上升影响，产品毛利率环比下滑150个基点至54.6%。虽然部分被产品提价所抵消，且公司主动建立了库存以保障交付，但硬件成本通胀仍是短期利润率扩张的逆风。后续关键变量包括：（1）AI与数据湖现代化订单的持续转化与生产环境部署进度；（2）全闪存阵列与公有云业务的增长动能；（3）产品定价能力能否持续覆盖NAND/DRAM等存储芯片的成本通胀；（4）AI存储需求是否具备长期的结构性而非短期脉冲性；（5）并购标的（DataPelago/JetStream）的技术整合与交叉销售成效。NetApp 凭借在企业级存储与数据管理领域的深厚壁垒，成功抓住了AI数据湖重构与全闪存升级的历史性机遇，基本面与订单能见度极为优异。尽管需警惕存储芯片周期波动对硬件毛利率的短期扰动，但其强劲的现金流与大幅上调的长期盈利框架提供了极高的安全边际。27财年第二季度建议交易区间：160美元至190美元。中性前景。