(KIN SP / KIN.SI)
Reality check after the D&B reset
Consumer Cyclicals
1H26 revenue fell 82.0% to S$7.09m as D&B revenue collapsed 93.1% to S$2.41m. This is the first public reporting-cycle evidence against the initiation assumption that D&B could sustain FY25’s contract-led scale.
We cut FY26E–FY28E revenue by 66.5%, 53.5% and 32.2%, entirely through D&B, while retaining the EDM sales path. FY28E EBITDA and net income fall 39.5% and 40.1% respectively.
The S$0.14 target blends 8x FY28E EV/EBITDA, EV/operating income and P/E, versus 10x/10x/9x previously. The target reduction reflects lower earnings visibility and thin liquidity.
We downgrade Kin to NEUTRAL from OUTPERFORM and cut our target price to S$0.14 from S$0.28. The target implies 26.3% downside from S$0.19 The re-rating catalyst ultimately depends on successful tendering of D&B contracts, visible revenue conversion and improved cash generation.
Downside risks are prolonged tender delays or losses, further D&B volatility, weak cash conversion, capital deployment before earnings recover and limited trading liquidity. Upside risks are material, disclosed D&B awards, faster EDM monetisation and stronger-than-assumed project margins.
