Technical Analysis: 21 August 2026

Walmart Inc. (WMT) 

• 2Q27 Revenue: $187.94B, +5.9% YoY, beat estimates by $1.12B 

• 2Q27 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.81, beat estimates by $0.07 

• FY27 Guidance: Raised FY27 net sales growth guidance to 4–5% and adjusted EPS to US$2.80–US$2.87. However, 3Q27 guidance was weak, with adjusted EPS expected at only US$0.62–US$0.64, below consensus of approximately US$0.68, and sales growth of 3.0–3.75%. 

• Dividends/Share buybacks: Walmart continues to return capital through its quarterly dividend and existing share-repurchase programme. 

• Comment: This was a mixed quarter despite the headline revenue and EPS beat. The strongest part of the story remains Walmart’s digital ecosystem: global eCommerce grew 23%, advertising increased 38%, membership fee revenue rose 17%, and eCommerce now represents approximately 23% of Walmart U.S. sales. These higher-margin businesses continue to improve Walmart’s long-term earnings mix and support operating income growing faster than sales. The key concern is deterioration in the core U.S. consumer. U.S. comparable sales growth slowed sharply to 2.6%, the weakest in roughly six years, versus 4.1% in 1Q27. Walmart also received approximately US$2.9B of tariff refunds, which management is largely reinvesting into price reductions across more than 11,000 items. This should support market-share gains but makes the Q2 operating-income acceleration less repeatable. Elevated fuel costs and increasingly cautious lower-income consumers add further pressure. Shares fell approximately 9% following the earnings release. The principal variables to monitor are U.S. comparable sales, consumer traffic and basket size, eCommerce profitability, advertising growth, membership revenue, price investments and the normalization of tariff-refund benefits. Walmart’s structural digital and market-share story remains attractive, but weaker core comps, soft Q3 guidance and a still-demanding valuation prevent a higher-conviction stance immediately after earnings. 3Q27 recommended trading range: $95 to $120. Neutral Outlook. 

Walmart Inc.（WMT) 

• 27财年第二季度营收：1879.4亿美元，同比增长5.9%，超出预期11.2亿美元 

• 27财年第二季度非公认会计准则每股收益：0.81美元，超出预期0.07美元 

• 27财年全年及Q3指引：全年净销售增长指引上调至4%–5%，调整后EPS上调至2.80–2.87美元；但Q3指引明显疲软：调整后EPS仅预计0.62–0.64美元（低于市场共识的约0.68美元），销售增速放缓至3.0%–3.75%。 

• 股息与回购：维持季度股息及现有股票回购计划，持续向股东返还资本。 

• 短评：本季度呈现”表观超预期，内核隐忧浮现”的混合态势。尽管营收与盈利双双beat，但市场更关注前瞻指引的走弱与核心消费的疲软，财报后股价大跌约9%。最强劲的亮点在于数字化生态的加速变现：全球电商业务增长23%，广告收入暴增38%，会员费收入增长17%，电商已占沃尔玛美国销售额的约23%。这些高毛利业务正持续优化公司的长期盈利结构，支撑运营利润增速快于营收增速，是沃尔玛从”传统零售商”向”全渠道零售+广告+会员平台”转型的核心引擎。然而，核心美国消费者基本面出现明显恶化信号：美国同店销售增速骤降至2.6%，为约六年来最弱（Q1为4.1%），显示底层消费需求正在放缓。此外，本季度公司获得了约29亿美元的关税退款，管理层选择将大部分资金重新投入至超11,000种商品的降价促销中。这一策略虽有利于抢占市场份额，但使得Q2运营利润的加速增长不具备可重复性，进一步压制了Q3的盈利预期。叠加高企的燃油成本与低收入消费者日益谨慎的支出行为，核心零售业务面临多重压力。后续关键变量包括：（1）美国同店销售能否企稳回升；（2）客流量与客单价的结构性变化；（3）电商业务的盈利能力与渗透率提升；（4）广告与会员等高毛利业务的持续高增长；（5）价格投资对毛利率的短期压制与长期份额回报；（6）关税退款一次性利好消退后，盈利增速的常态化回归路径。沃尔玛在数字化转型与高毛利业务拓展上的长期结构性故事依然极具吸引力，其规模壁垒与全渠道能力在行业下行期反而有利于份额扩张。但短期内，核心comps放缓、疲软的Q3指引以及当前仍具挑战性的估值水位，限制了在财报后立即给出更高确信度评级的空间。27财年第三季度建议交易区间：95美元至120美元。中性前景。 

Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) 

• 1Q27 Revenue: $39.64B, +9% YoY, miss estimates by $150M 

• 1Q27 Non-GAAP EPADS: $1.26, miss estimates by $0.34 

• FY26 Guidance: Management remains committed to its RMB380B+ three-year AI and cloud investment programme and indicated that spending could ultimately exceed the original plan. Management expects AI infrastructure investment to reach economic breakeven within approximately three years, while cloud growth should continue accelerating as AI demand expands. 

• Dividends/ Share Buybacks: Repurchased approximately US$162M of shares during the quarter, equivalent to roughly 1.7M ADSs. Alibaba also declared its FY26 annual dividend of US$1.05 per ADS earlier this year. 

• Comment: This was a strategically strong but financially weak quarter. The key positive was the 45% growth in AI Cloud and compute services, demonstrating that Alibaba’s heavy infrastructure investment is translating into unusually strong cloud demand. Qwen is also increasingly integrated across Alibaba’s ecosystem, with approximately 250M users having experienced AI-driven shopping features. The combination of cloud infrastructure, proprietary AI models, in-house chips and Alibaba’s enormous commerce distribution base gives the company one of the strongest vertically integrated AI positions in China. The key issue is the cost of pursuing that opportunity. Quarterly capex surged 75% YoY to RMB67.68B, or almost US$10B, while adjusted net income fell 38%. Alibaba has already deployed roughly half of its planned RMB380B AI investment, meaning free-cash-flow and earnings pressure could remain substantial over the next several quarters. Near-term profitability is therefore increasingly being sacrificed for AI infrastructure, cloud capacity and competitive positioning. Shares fell approximately 4.6% following the earnings release. The principal variables to monitor are Cloud growth, AI-related revenue, capex intensity, free cash flow, monetisation of Qwen, China e-commerce growth and losses from newer consumer initiatives. The AI thesis strengthened materially this quarter, but the earnings miss and aggressive investment cycle make near-term upside dependent on investors accepting weaker profits in exchange for faster cloud growth. 2Q27 recommended trading range: $120 to $150. Neutral Outlook. 

阿里巴巴集团（BABA) 

• 27财年第一季度营收：396.4亿美元，同比增长9%，低于预期1.5亿美元 

• 27财年第一季度非公认会计准则每ADS收益（EPADS）：1.26美元，大幅低于预期0.34美元 

• 战略与投资指引：管理层重申三年内超3800亿元人民币的AI与云基础设施投资计划，并暗示最终支出可能超出原计划。预计AI基础设施投资将在约三年内实现经济盈亏平衡；随着AI需求扩张，云业务增长有望继续加速。 

• 股息与回购：本季度回购约1.62亿美元股份（约合170万份ADS）；今年早些时候已宣布26财年年度股息为每ADS 1.05美元。 

• 短评：本季度呈现出“战略逻辑强化，但财务表现承压”的显著分化特征。核心亮点在于AI与云业务的爆发：AI Cloud与算力服务收入同比大增45%，证明公司前期重金投入的基础设施正转化为极为强劲的市场需求。同时，自研大模型通义千问（Qwen），已有约2.5亿用户体验了AI驱动的购物功能。凭借云基础设施、自研大模型、自研芯片（如平头哥）以及庞大的电商流量分发基本盘，阿里已构建起中国最具竞争力的垂直整合AI生态。然而，核心痛点在于“为未来买单”的沉重财务代价：本季度资本开支同比激增75%至676.8亿元人民币（近100亿美元），直接导致调整后净利润同比下滑38%。目前3800亿的AI投资计划已消耗约一半，这意味着在未来几个季度内，自由现金流与账面盈利仍将承受巨大压力。公司正明确选择牺牲短期盈利能力，以换取AI基础设施、云算力规模及长期竞争壁垒。财报后股价下跌约4.6%，反映出在当前宏观环境下，资金对“利润下滑+高额资本开支”的组合依然敏感，尚未完全为阿里的“AI长期叙事”给予估值溢价。后续关键变量包括：（1）云业务及AI相关收入的加速增长斜率；（2）资本开支强度及其对自由现金流的长期影响；（3）通义千问在B端与C端的商业化变现进度；（4）中国核心电商业务（淘天集团）；（5）新消费及海外业务的减亏进展。阿里巴巴的“AI+云”转型逻辑在本季度得到了实质性验证，长期护城河正在加深。但短期的盈利miss与激进的投资周期，使得股价的短期上行高度依赖于投资者是否愿意“容忍短期利润下滑，以换取云与AI业务的长期高增长”。27财年第一季度建议交易区间：120美元至150美元。中性前景。 

Deere & Company (DE) 

• 3Q26 Revenue: $12.61B, +4.9% YoY, beat estimates by $1.87B. 

• 3Q26 GAAP EPS: $5.10, beat estimates by $0.40. 

• FY26 Guidance: Raised FY26 net income guidance to approximately US$5.5B–US$5.75B, from US$5.25B–US$5.75B previously. Management continues to expect the agricultural equipment cycle to remain subdued, but improving order activity, disciplined dealer inventories and easier comparisons suggest the downturn is approaching a bottom. 

• Dividends/ Share Buybacks: Deere continues to return capital through its quarterly dividend and share repurchases. 

• Comment: This was a better-than-feared quarter rather than a clear demand inflection. Deere exceeded revenue and EPS expectations despite continued pressure in large agriculture, suggesting aggressive production cuts and dealer inventory normalization are working. The more important forward indicator is improving order activity, with management increasingly positioned for a potential agricultural-equipment recovery into FY27 as farmer replacement cycles eventually normalize. The key issue remains farm economics. Lower crop prices, elevated interest rates and weaker farmer income continue to constrain purchases of high-horsepower tractors and combines, while tariffs and input costs create additional margin uncertainty. Deere’s structural precision-agriculture, autonomous machinery and recurring technology opportunity remains attractive, but these businesses cannot fully insulate near-term earnings from the agricultural cycle. Shares rose approximately 5% following the earnings release. The principal variables to monitor are North American large-ag equipment orders, dealer inventories, used-equipment values, corn and soybean prices, farmer income, production schedules and FY27 margin expectations. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $550 to $660. Neutral Outlook. 

Deere & Company（DE) 

• 26财年第三季度营收：126.1亿美元，同比增长4.9%，大幅超出预期18.7亿美元 

• 26财年第三季度公认会计准则每股收益：5.10美元，超出预期0.40美元 

• 26财年全年指引：上调全年净利润指引至约55亿–57.5亿美元（此前为52.5亿–57.5亿美元）；管理层预计农业设备周期仍将低迷，但订单活动改善、经销商库存纪律严明以及基数效应缓解，表明行业下行周期正接近触底。 

• 股息与回购：继续通过季度股息和股票回购向股东返还资本。 

• 短评：本季度表现“好于市场悲观预期”，但并非明确的需求拐点。尽管大型农业设备业务仍面临持续压力，Deere的营收与盈利依然双双超预期，表明公司激进的生产削减措施与经销商库存正常化策略正在奏效。更具前瞻意义的指标是订单活动的改善。随着农民设备更新周期最终回归常态，管理层正积极为27财年潜在的农业设备需求复苏进行布局。然而，核心痛点依然在于“农业经济效益”：较低的农作物价格、高企的利率以及疲软的农民收入，继续制约着大马力拖拉机和联合收割机的采购需求；同时，关税与投入成本也为利润率带来了额外的不确定性。尽管Deere在精准农业、自动驾驶机械及经常性技术收入（SaaS/软件订阅）方面的结构性增长机会依然极具吸引力，但这些业务尚无法完全隔离短期盈利受农业周期波动的冲击。财报后股价上涨约5%，市场对其在行业逆风中展现出的盈利韧性与库存管理能力给予了肯定。后续关键变量包括：（1）北美大型农业设备订单的恢复节奏；（2）经销商库存水平的健康度；（3）二手设备市场的保值率与流转情况；（4）玉米和大豆等核心农产品价格走势；（5）农民实际收入与资本开支意愿；（6）生产排期调整及27财年的利润率预期。Deere凭借强大的品牌壁垒、定价权及向科技驱动型公司的转型，在农业周期底部展现了极强的抗风险能力。但实质性反转仍需等待宏观农业经济基本面的实质性回暖。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：550美元至660美元。中性前景。 

NetEase, Inc. (NTES) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $4.4B, +7.9% YoY, beat estimates by $30M 

• 2Q26 Non-GAAP EPADS: $1.78, miss estimates by $0.53 

• FY26 Guidance: Management remains constructive on its game pipeline, with Sea of Remnants launched in China in July while Ananta and Blood Message remain under development. Existing franchises including Where Winds Meet and Marvel Rivals are also being expanded internationally. 

• Dividends/ Share Buybacks: RMB3.14B of dividends paid and RMB1.80B spent on NetEase ADS/subsidiary share purchases during 2Q26. 

• Comment: This was a mixed quarter with stronger operating performance than the headline EPS miss suggests. Gaming revenue grew nearly 10%, while gross profit increased 17.5% as lower revenue-sharing costs improved economics. More importantly, NetEase retains a strong content pipeline alongside evergreen franchises, with Where Winds Meet demonstrating international traction and Ananta representing a potentially significant future catalyst. The key issue was below-the-line earnings quality rather than deterioration in the core gaming franchise. Net income was hurt by declines in the fair value of equity investments, impairment provisions and an effective tax rate that increased sharply to 25.5% from 14.7% a year ago. Operating expenses also increased sequentially to RMB9.1B as NetEase stepped up marketing, staff and R&D spending. These factors explain much of the disconnect between 17.5% gross-profit growth and the substantial EPS miss. Shares fell approximately 5–6% following the earnings release. The principal variables to monitor are the performance of Where Winds Meet and Marvel Rivals, monetisation of Sea of Remnants, launch timing and reception for Ananta and Blood Message, overseas gaming growth, R&D and marketing intensity, and normalization of the effective tax rate. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $110 to $135. Neutral Outlook. 

网易（NTES)  

• 26财年第二季度营收：44亿美元，同比增长7.9%，超出预期3000万美元 

• 26财年第二季度非公认会计准则每ADS收益（EPADS）：1.78美元，大幅低于预期0.53美元 

• 游戏管线与展望：管理层对游戏产品管线保持积极态度。《Sea of Remnants》已于7月在中国上线；《无限大》（Ananta）与《Blood Message》仍在研发中。同时，《燕云十六声》（Where Winds Meet）与《漫威争锋》（Marvel Rivals）等重磅IP正持续拓展国际市场。 

• 股息与回购：二季度派发股息31.4亿元人民币，并斥资18亿元人民币用于回购网易ADS及子公司股份。 

• 短评：本季度表现呈现混合态势，实际运营表现远好于账面EPS大幅miss所呈现的表象。核心亮点在于游戏主业的强劲与毛利改善：游戏业务收入增长近10%，得益于收入分成成本的降低，毛利润同比大增17.5%。更重要的是，网易在保持长青游戏基本盘的同时，储备了极具爆发力的内容管线：《燕云十六声》在海外市场展现出强劲的吸引力，而《无限大》（Ananta）则有望成为未来的重大催化剂。核心痛点在于“非经营性因素”与费用攀升拖累账面利润：净利润受到股权投资公允价值下降、资产减值准备以及有效税率大幅攀升（从去年同期的14.7%飙升至25.5%）的严重冲击。此外，随着公司加大营销、人员及研发投入，运营费用环比增至91亿元人民币。这些“线下因素”完美解释了为何毛利润大增而EPS却大幅不及预期。财报后股价下跌约5%–6%，反映出市场对短期利润表受非经常性损益及高税率冲击的避险情绪，但核心游戏业务的底层韧性依然稳固。后续关键变量包括：（1）《燕云十六声》与《漫威争锋》的流水表现与长线运营；（2）《Sea of Remnants》的商业化变现能力；（3）《无限大》与《Blood Message》的研发进度、上线时机及市场反馈；（4）海外游戏业务的扩张与收入占比；（5）研发与营销费用的投入强度；（6）有效税率的常态化回归。网易凭借顶级的自研能力与丰富的产品矩阵，在全球游戏市场占据核心生态位。短期的财务扰动（投资减值与税率波动）不改其核心主业的强劲现金流与长期增长逻辑。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：110美元至135美元。中性前景。 

Futu Holdings Limited (FUTU) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $918.2M, +35.7% YoY, beat estimates by $150M 

• 2Q26 GAAP EPADS: $3.33, beat estimates by $0.51 

• FY27 Guidance: Management remains constructive on international expansion and product breadth, supported by a new Thailand securities license, virtual-asset financing approval in Hong Kong and prediction markets in the U.S. Funded accounts increased 33.6% YoY to 3.84M, with Malaysia, Hong Kong and Singapore driving new-client additions. 

• Dividends/Share Buybacks: Futu had repurchased approximately 3.8M ADSs for US$418M under its existing share-repurchase programme as of June 30, 2026 

• Comment: This was a very strong quarter. Trading volume increased 79%, client assets rose 43.6% to HK$1.40T, and margin financing and securities lending balances surged 85.1% to HK$95.1B. U.S. stock trading volume was particularly strong at HK$5.02T, benefiting from heightened retail participation in semiconductor and AI-related equities. Importantly, revenue grew 36% while adjusted net income increased 40%, demonstrating continued operating leverage despite elevated customer-acquisition spending. The key issue is sustainability and regulatory risk. Current earnings are benefiting from exceptionally strong equity-market activity, IPO issuance and margin-financing demand, making FUTU inherently sensitive to market turnover and investor sentiment. Selling and marketing expenses also increased 53.1% YoY, while gross margin declined to 86.3% from 87.4%. Regulatory uncertainty remains an overhang despite improving international diversification. Shares initially rose approximately 7% following the earnings release. The principal variables to monitor are U.S. and Hong Kong trading volumes, funded-account additions, client net inflows, margin-financing balances, international monetisation and regulatory developments. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $90 to $150. Positive Outlook. 

富途控股（FUTU)  

• 26财年第二季度营收：9.182亿美元，同比增长35.7%，大幅超出预期1.5亿美元 

• 26财年第二季度公认会计准则每ADS收益（EPADS）：3.33美元，显著超出预期0.51美元 

• 业务展望与国际化：管理层对国际扩张与产品矩阵拓展保持积极态度。近期相继获得泰国证券牌照、香港虚拟资产融资业务批准以及美国预测市场（prediction markets）相关业务资质。有资金账户数同比大增33.6%至384万，马来西亚、中国香港和新加坡是新增客户的核心驱动力。 

• 股息与回购：截至2026年6月底，已在现有回购计划下回购约380万份ADS，累计耗资4.18亿美元。 

• 短评：本季度表现极为强劲，展现出卓越的运营杠杆与全球化红利。交易量同比激增79%，客户资产规模大增43.6%至1.40万亿港元，融资融券余额更是飙升85.1%至951亿港元。其中，美股交易表现尤为亮眼（交易额达5.02万亿港元），深度受益于散户对半导体及AI概念股的狂热参与。在营收增长36%的同时，调整后净利润大增40%，证明即便在加大获客投入的背景下，公司依然具备强大的规模效应与盈利弹性。然而，核心博弈点在于业绩的周期性与监管不确定性。当前的超高盈利高度依赖于极度活跃的市场情绪、旺盛的IPO发行及高杠杆的融资需求，使其对市场换手率极为敏感。此外，销售与营销费用同比大增53.1%，导致毛利率微降至86.3%（去年同期87.4%），反映出全球化扩张期的获客成本压力。尽管国际业务多元化有效分散了单一市场风险，但跨境监管政策仍是长期的潜在扰动因素。财报后股价初步上涨约7%，市场对其强劲的全球化获客与高弹性盈利给予了积极定价。后续关键变量包括：（1）美股与港股市场交易量及换手率的持续性；（2）海外市场（如东南亚、新加坡）；（3）客户资产的净流入（Net inflows）；（4）融资融券等杠杆业务的余额与风险控制；（5）新牌照（如泰国、虚拟资产）；（6）全球跨境证券监管政策的动态。富途凭借极致的用户体验与强大的全球牌照布局，已成功从“单一市场券商”蜕变为“全球化财富管理平台”。在科技股牛市周期中，其业绩弹性得到了完美释放。尽管面临获客成本上升与监管扰动，但其长期成长逻辑依然坚固。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：90美元至150美元。积极前景。 

Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST) 

• 2Q26 Revenue: $6.3B, +13.9% YoY, beat estimates by $140M 

• 2Q26 GAAP EPS: $2.66, beat estimates by $0.71 

• FY26 Guidance: Raised FY26 comparable-store sales growth guidance to approximately 3–4%, from 2–3% previously, while EPS is now expected at approximately US$6.55–US$6.70. 

• Dividends/ Share Buybacks: The company remains on track to repurchase approximately US$1.05B of shares during FY26 under its existing authorization, alongside its regular quarterly dividend 

• Comment: This was a solid beat-and-raise quarter. Comparable sales increased 4%, ahead of expectations, while Ross continues to benefit from consumers trading down toward off-price retail. The buying environment also remains favorable, as excess inventory across traditional retail provides Ross with access to attractive branded merchandise. Continued store expansion provides an additional structural growth driver beyond comparable-store sales. The key issue is margin sensitivity. Tariffs, wages and freight remain headwinds, while Ross has less merchandise-margin flexibility than TJX given its greater exposure to lower-income consumers and lower average selling prices. Management therefore needs continued traffic and comparable-sales growth to offset cost inflation without materially compromising its value proposition. Shares rose approximately 4% following the earnings release. The principal variables to monitor are comparable-store sales, customer traffic, merchandise margin, tariff mitigation, inventory availability, wage inflation and new-store productivity. Fundamentals remain healthy and the raised outlook supports earnings visibility, although TJX continues to offer the stronger combination of operating momentum and business diversification within off-price retail. 3Q26 recommended trading range: $220 to $300. Positive Outlook. 

Ross Stores, Inc.（ROST) 

• 26财年第二季度营收：63亿美元，同比增长13.9%，超出预期1.4亿美元 

• 26财年第二季度公认会计准则每股收益：2.66美元，大幅超出预期0.71美元 

• 26财年全年指引：上调全年同店销售增长指引至约3%–4%（此前为2%–3%）；预计全年EPS约为6.55–6.70美元。 

• 股息与回购：计划在26财年继续执行约10.5亿美元的股票回购计划，并维持常规季度股息派发。 
• 短评：本季度呈现稳健的“超预期+上调指引”态势。同店销售增长4%，超出市场预期。Ross持续深度受益于消费者“消费降级”（trading down）向折扣零售（off-price retail）转移的宏观趋势。同时，当前的采购环境依然极为有利：传统零售商过剩的库存为Ross提供了大量获取高性价比品牌商品的机会。此外，持续的门店扩张也为公司提供了超越同店销售的结构性增长动力。然而，核心隐忧在于“利润率敏感性”。关税、人工工资和运费仍是持续的成本逆风。相较于同业TJX，由于Ross的客群更偏向低收入消费者且平均客单价（ASP）较低，其商品利润率的缓冲空间与灵活性相对较弱。因此，管理层必须依靠持续的客流和同店销售增长来消化成本通胀，同时不能实质性损害其核心的“极致性价比”价值主张。财报后股价上涨约4%，市场对其在消费疲软环境下的防御性与盈利韧性给予了肯定。后续关键变量包括：（1）同店销售与客流量的持续性；（2）商品利润率的稳定性；（3）关税与供应链成本的缓解措施；（4）市场上品牌过剩库存的可获得性；（5）工资通胀压力；（6）新开门店的坪效与爬坡情况。Ross Stores 基本面依然健康，上调的全年指引进一步增强了盈利的能见度，是消费降级周期中极具防御性的优质资产。不过，若将整个折扣零售赛道进行横向对比，TJX在运营动能与业务多元化（如家居品类）方面仍提供更优的风险收益组合。26财年第三季度建议交易区间：220美元至300美元。积极前景。